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Coffee Roundtable
Citation preview
JAMAICA COFFEE
ASSESSMENT &
STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN
OVERVIEW
Coffee Working Group Meeting
August 27th, 2014
JAMAICA COFFEE PRODUCTION TREND: WHY ARE WE HERE?
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Bo
xes
Year
BM HM
Ivan
Dean
JAMAICA COFFEE ASSESSMENT: OBJECTIVE
What this study did NOT do:
Focus on post harvest
quality aspects
Examine markets
Take a statistically
significant sample of the BM
or HM regions
What this study did do:
Focus on factors that affect
farm yield / overall
Jamaican production
Determine farmer trends
Capture farm data to
support short, medium,
long-term solutions
Benchmark
SCENARIO: DO NOTHING
Collapse of coffee
value chain
Quality deterioration
Price drops
Smallholder mass exit
Strong social impact
Panama
Model
SCENARIO: BEST CASE
Sustainable and
profitable industry
Quality preserved and enhanced
Price maintained
Organized value chain
Win-win between farmers & producers
Champagne
model
FARM VISITS: SAMPLE OVERVIEW
Portland 20%
St Andrew 28%
St Thomas 23%
Hanover 3%
Manchester 5%
St Ann 5%
St Catherine 8%
West Moreland 8%
Farm visits 28 BM / 11 HM
39 farms visited
32 farms with
sufficient data
29 were further
analyzed (4 outliers)
15 5
8
2 2
7
Small Medium Large
Sampled Farms by Size
BM HM
Combination of data, field observation and expertise
PROTECTING & CONTROLLING YOUR DNA
97
56 53
13
Typica Catimor Geisha or Special Other (Caturra,Catuai)
% Farms with Varieties
Jamaica is an origin known for Typica, however there is
an increase in Catimor presence across high % of farms.
PROTECTING & CONTROLLING YOUR DNA
• We understand why - problem with yield, problem
with rust
• It will change cup quality and eventually damage
brand reputation
• Common thread across all stakeholders - varieties
• Any other agronomic recommendations need to
take variety control into account.
IMMEDIATE SOLUTIONS: VARIETIES
Conserve Typica
• Take serious rust control measures
• Create technical standards for nurseries
• Provide training on good planting techniques
Introduce new varieties
• ASAP
• Immediately stop planting first generation Catimor’s
• Consider Java
• Start parallel intro and trials with shortlist varieties
DATA TRENDS: FARMER PROFILES
Low yield
(8 bx/acre)
Average age: 62
Ave size: 5 acres (coffee)
Income from coffee: 62%
Average alt: 441 mts
Group 1 Average
yield
(20 bx/acre)
Average age: 49
Ave size: 4 acres (coffee)
Income from coffee: 28%
Average alt:
552 mts
Group 2
High yield (37 bx/acre)
Average age: 66
Ave size: 13 acres (coffee)
Income from coffee: 82%
Average alt:
672 mts
Group 3
Opportunist Smallholder Technified
Benchmarking
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: YIELD PER ACRE
8
20
37
16 16
57 52
34
57
97
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Bo
xes /
acre
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: LABOR PRODUCTIVITY
36 29
174
120
40
150
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Bo
xes p
er
100 m
an
days
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: PRODUCTION COSTS / BOX
5,600
6,720
4,480
1,277 700
1,400
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
JM
D/
Bo
x
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: INPUT COST / ACRE
18,989 23,200
26,330
79,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Smallholders Opportunist Technified Colombia
JM
D/A
cre
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: NET INCOME / ACRE
-22,000
-39,000
-16,000
54,000 51,200
25000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
JM
D /
Acre
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: DENSITY
800-871 50%
600-800 25%
300-600 25%
Density : Plant per Acre (Ideal = 871 plants for Typica intercropped with banana)
Jamaica (Mean) = 700
Uganda = 912
Oaxaca Sur = 600
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: AGE OF TREES
Young (0-5) 4%
Adult (5-25) 64%
Old (>25) 32%
In most countries:
60% > 25 years
A VERY SMALL GROUP OF HIGHLY TECHNIFIED FARMS
82
58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jamaica high tech Colombia
Yield
228,000
25,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Jamaica high tech Colombia
Net Income / Acre
DATA TRENDS: FARMER PROFILES
Low yield
(8 bx/acre)
Average age: 62
Ave size: 5 acres
(coffee)
Income from coffee: 62%
Average alt: 441 mts
Whole farm gross income:
JMD 398,975
Group 1
Average yield
(20 bx/acre)
Average age: 49
Ave size: 4 acres
(coffee)
Income from coffee: 28%
Average alt:
552 mts
Whole farm gross income: JMD
1,683,713
Group 2
High yield (37 bx/acre)
Average age: 66
Ave size: 13 acres (coffee)
Income from coffee: 82%
Average alt:
672 mts
Whole farm gross income: JMD 2,387,500
Group 3
High yield (82 bx/acre)
Average age: 62
Ave size: 107 acres (coffee)
Income from coffee: 80%
Average alt:
550 mts
Whole farm gross income: JMD
24,100,000
Group 4
Opportunist Smallholder Technified Highly
Technified
YIELD & NET INCOME
INPUT PRODUCTION RESPONSE
Low Yielder
More yield is not always translated in more net
income
High Yielder
More yield more net income ΔO >> ΔI
ΔO < ΔI
Comparing Δ Input and Δ Output
DATA TRENDS: NET INCOME AND YIELD
R² = 0.0194
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80JM
D $
BOXES PER ACRE
Net income is NOT always correlated to Yield
DATA TRENDS: YIELD
R² = 0.1961
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5
Yie
ld (
Bo
xes /
Acre
)
# OF APPLICATIONS
Pesticide treatment frequency can increase yield
but does not translate in net income
R² = 0.1177
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
0 1 2 3 4 5
Co
ffee
net
Inco
me
/ A
cre
# OF APPLICATIONS
DATA TRENDS: YIELD AND NET INCOME
R² = 0.1844
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
Yie
ld
LABOR COSTS PER ACRE (JMD
Labor input / Acre can increase yield
but decreases coffee net income
R² = 0.609
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
NE
T IN
CO
ME
(JM
D)
LABOR COSTS PER ACRE (JMD)
HOW ABOUT FERTILIZER
R² = 0.2863
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Yie
ld
Fert cost / Ac
R² = 0.0603
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
-
50,000
100,000
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Net
co
ffee i
nco
me /
Acre
Fert cost / Acre
Fertilization can increase yield
but has no effect on coffee net income
DATA TRENDS: YIELD
R² = 0.0361
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
BO
XE
S
# OF TREES
Yield vs # of trees per acre
Low density tends to generate lower yields
DATA TRENDS: YIELD
Footer
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
BO
XE
S
INCOME FROM COFFEE
Farms depending less on coffee tend to have lower yields
DATA TRENDS: NET INCOME
R² = 0.1827
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7JM
D $
# OF FAMILY MEMBERS
Larger sized households tend to have better net income
MAIN TAKEAWAYS: LABOR, FERTILIZER, PESTICIDES
• Better yields with more inputs does not necessarily translate
in higher net income, specifically for low yielders
• Clear antagonism between volume strategy and smallholder
economic model
Technical assistance should focus on improving efficiency to increase
farmer return:
1. Utilize higher yielding varieties
2. Increase # of trees per acre
3. Revise labor use strategy and cut back where possible
4. Increase input use efficiency: revise fertilizer mix & dosages and
frequency of pesticide applications
MAIN TAKEAWAYS: VARIETIES
• Immediately stop planting Catimor
• Short term introduction of Typica like
varieties (JAVA)
• Develop comprehensive strategy on variety
introduction
STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN
SOLUTIONS: GENETICS
Short Medium Long
Identify reliable seed sources 4 months Determine nursery certification criteria
2 months
Certify nurseries against new criteria 6 months Ban planting of first generation Catimor
ASAP
Produce 1 million certified plants (typica, java)
2015 planting season
Determine preferred varieties for Jamaica
Start ASAP 18 months
Develop commercial pilot plots (seed, hybrid varieties)
2016 planting
season
Release short-listed seed varieties 2020 planting
season
Release short-listed hybrid varieties 2020 planting
season
SOLUTIONS: AGRONOMIC
Short Medium Long
Train the Trainers on tree based recommendations
3 months
Create mentor program using experienced international peers
6 months 2 years
Fine tune fertilization recommendations 2-6 months Create demo plots showing recommendations
Prep ASAP 2016 planting
season
Organize farmer field days in demo plots 6 months after
creation
Reinforce basic messages on pesticide 3 months Introduce new products to control CBB 2 years Reinforce basic messages on rust 3 months Reinforce basic messages on good planting practices
ASAP
Explore service provider models to increase labor efficiency
18 months
SOLUTIONS: DETERMINE STRATEGY FOR JAMAICAN COFFEE
Short Medium Long
Include private sector representation in CIB's Board
ASAP
Determine specifications for Geographical Indication
2 years
Organize group to control & enforce GI
2 years
Achieve GI registration 5-6 years Achieve analytic authentication of BM coffee (NIRS)
2 years
SOLUTIONS: DEVELOPING INCLUSIVE BUSINESS MODELS
Develop efficient farmer technical assistance strategies (firm level)
6 months
Offer multi-year contracts with premiums for increased yields
Benchmark 2015 / 2016 harvest
Deliver on-time inputs that correspond to agronomic needs
2014 / 2015 harvest
Ensure that (registered, appropriate) inputs are accessible
2014 / 2015 harvest
Utilize text messaging to prepare farmers for action
2014 / 2015 harvest
Know your farmers: update / create farmer database
Start ASAP
Improve access to working capital lines 2 years Explore options for concessional finance for planting material for farmers
Start ASAP
Short Medium Long
DISCUSSION & NEXT STEPS
How do you see this Plan being implemented?
Genetics Agronomy
Inclusive Business
Group Strategy
IFC CAN SUPPORT
• Match project funds on pre-competitive activities
• Bring partial project funding for firm specific activities
• Oversee the strategic action plan
• Explore commercial finance options for producers and farmers (medium term)
• Identify potential partners for activities that are not under IFC’s mandate
• We cannot provide grant funding, fund public sector entities or subsidize purchases of goods/assets.
THANK YOU!
TODAY’S DISCUSSION: ROAD MAP
Needs / Challenges
Objectives Impact
Relevance Effectiveness
Means
Increasing Jamaican coffee volume Preserve and reinforce Jamaican coffee reputation
1. Agronomy 2. TA & Inclusive business 3. Genetics 4. Group strategy
Jamaican coffee reputation reinforced through varietal control and GI registration
Bridge the gap between farmer’s yield and coffee net income Control coffee varieties Have a GI for Jamaican coffee
Volume is increased b/c yield does provide more net income to farmers
Efficiency
Benchmarking
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: MAN DAYS / ACRE
26
72
21
65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Smallholders Opportunist Technified Average world
MD
/ A
cre
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: % OF COFFEE INCOME
54
27
71
0 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Smallholders Opportunist Technified Averageelsewhere
JM
D /
Acre
JAMAICA VS OTHER ORIGINS: PRICE OF COFFEE
5,000
2,200
1,662
1,200
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
BM JM Colombia Mexico
JM
D/B
ox
Catimor
Footer
Genetic Control Cont’d
Hybrid introduced - 1980’s & early 1990’s
Predominantly: Hybrid De Timor x Caturra
crosses
Hybrids: e.g. T5157, T5159 & 2308
Only resistant to some races of Rust
However, taste, beans size & shape did not
conform to our Jamaican coffee profile. As such propagation of these hybrids have been discouraged. COFFEE LEAF RUST WORKSHOP
CICAFE, COSTA RICA MARCH 13-14, 2008 Presented by: Louis Campbell Advisory Services Manager ( [email protected] )
Cost Incurred • Slight to moderate infection
Labour - 2 md/ac @ 1000/md $2,000
Material - Champion/Kocide $650/lb
x 4 lbs/application /ac $2,600
Sticker 50 ml/drum $ 150
Equipment – Pump (hire) $700/day $ 700
Water $ 300
Transportation $ 500
Lubricants & Gas $ 500
$6,750
2 application per ac = $13,500 (US$190)
Decision Trees
DECISION TREE: PRUNE OR PLANT
Coffee tree
Productive Productive
trees
Unproductive Prune Resuscitated
trees
Exhausted Uproot Healthy,
young trees
Gap Healthy,
young trees
Current situation Medium term
impact
DECISION TREE: FERTILIZER USE
Productive trees
Adult 3 x 3 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK
Pruned trees
Year 0 2 x2 oz
1 urea + 1 npk
Year 1 3 x 2 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK
Adult 3 x 3 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK
Young replanted trees
Year 0 2 oz urea after planting
Year 1 2 x2 oz
1 urea + 1 npk
Year 2 3 x 2 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK
Adult 3 x 3 oz
1 urea + 2 NPK
Type o
f tr
ee
Further fine tune
with soil
sample analysis
VARIETY INTRODUCTION
• Informational material and assistance for farmers to help them choose the most adequate mix of varieties.
• Develop farm planting strategies
Comprehensive introduction and use of modern rust resistant varieties
• Make a rational choice of available varieties to be grown
• Identify reliable seed stock
• Technical certification of nurseries to ensure good planting material
• Genetic
• Physiological status
• Phytosanitary status
Control of existing historical varieties
• Mix of varieties • Use of low cup quality varieties (catimor) • Risk of losing original type
Uncontrolled variety strategy
Current
situation Short term
situation
Medium term
situation