Cognitive determinants of Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errorsaffective forecasting errors

Richard E. Lucas Thomas H. Carr Michael Hoerger Stuart W. Quirk

Judgement and Decision Making Impact factor ： 1.47

Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors

Abstract

method

Result and consequence

Terminology

①Often to the detriment of human decision

making, people are prone to an impact bias

when making affective forecasts,overestimating

the emotional consequences of future events.    

在涉及到降低人类决策的影响因素中，例如当人们做出情感性的预测时，会倾向于认为是影响偏差，对未来事件的情感因素过高估计

②The cognitive processes underlying the impact

bias, and methods for correcting it, have been

debated and warrant further exploration.   认知过程以这种影响偏差为基础，校正这种偏见的方法

已经被反复讨论，并且导致了相关的进一步研究。

③In the present investigation, we examined

both individual differences and contextual

variables associated with cognitive processing

in affective forecasting for an election.    

在目前的研究中，我们检验了个体差异和情景两个变量，这两个变量被设计与一次选举过程中，涉及情感预测的认知过程相联系 .

④Results showed that the perceived importance

of the event and working memory capacity were

both associated with an increased impact bias for

some participants, whereas retrieval

interference had no relationship with bias.   结果显示感知到的事件重要性和工作记忆能力与一些被

试不断积累的影响偏差有关，而提取干扰反而与偏见无关

⑤Additionally, an experimental manipulation

effectively reduced biased forecasts, particularly

among participants who were most distracted

thinking about peripheral life events.   

另外，实验控制有效的减少了有偏见的预测，尤其是在那些被生活中的琐事折磨的心烦意乱的被试表现更为明显

⑥These findings have theoretical implications for

understanding the impact bias, highlight the

importance of individual differences in affective

forecasting, and have ramifications for future

decision making research.  

这些发现对理解影响偏差有理论上的指导意义，强调了

个体差异在情感预测上的重要性，而且对未来决策研究提

供了其他方向。

⑦The possible functional role of

the impact bias is discussed

within the context of

evolutionary psychology. 

影响偏差的机能任务仅仅是在进化心理学的情境下内讨论。

During the two months prior to the 2004 U.S.

Presidential election, participants predicted how

they expected to feel two weeks after the

election ,and they completed various other

measures in the lab.

Two weeks after the election, participants

reported their actual levels of happiness.

Fifty seven students (68% female,

Mean age = 19.5, SD= 1.3) from

Michigan State University, 37

(65%) indicated support for Kerry,

and 20 (35%) supported Bush

2.2.1 Happiness ratings

Baseline rating of happiness:

Predicted rating of happiness

Actual rating of happiness

Baseline ratings were subtracted from predicted

and actual ratings to yield measures of predicted

change in happiness and actual change in happiness.

2.2.2 working memory

The Operation Span Task and the Reading Span

Task were used to assess working memory

capacity.

Participants were given one minute to memorize

a list of 20 unrelated words. then given a second

list, containing 20 new, unrelated words and

asked to memorize them within one minute, hey

were then asked to recall words from the first list. Interference scores were obtained by subtracting

the number of correct words during the second

recall from the number of correctly recalled

words during the first recall task

Two questions were used to assess subjective

importance of the election:

Participants rated how important they considered

politics to be for them personally, compared to

other people,

and how important they considered this election

to be, compared to past Presidential elections.

Half of participants were randomly assigned to complete a defocusing “diary” task regarding their daily activities. They were given three minutes to make as long a list as possible.

After three minutes

elapsed, participants

were asked to rate

each activity they

listed along two

dimensions

During the first stage of

the experiment,

participants attended a

lab session held one to

eight weeks prior to

Election Day.

Two weeks after Election

Day participants

completed a follow-up

questionnaire online

regarding their current

affective state

3.1

the regression analyses demonstrate that the

experimental condition, working memory

capacity, and subjective importance of the event

all account for important and unique differences

in the impact bias.

The experimental manipulation and event

importance played a role in differential

predictions.

Impact bias 影响偏差 Working capacity 工作记忆retrieval interference 提取干扰diary manipulation 日记操控Interference theroy 干扰理论affective competition hypothesis 情感竞争假设Short-term memory 短时记忆Mood orientation 心境定向OSPAN:the Operation Span Task 操控系列任务RSPAN:the Reading Span Task 阅读系列任务Predicted and actual emotional reaction预测和实际的情感反应 Hierarchical multiple regression 多重线性回归

Think about the following questions:

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explore importance of the problem? How to describe the relevant scholarship? How to state hypotheses and their correspondence to research design?

4. How to describe participant characteristics? What is the sample ? What is the research

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