Cognitive Power of Data Analytics in Health Care

Olives & Berries Consulting | January 2019

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An example of prediction modeling based on Time Series

Decision Trees in Diagnosing Heart Disease

Using Logistics Regression in Diabetes Prediction

Analytics Framework

12Other uses cases of Data Analytics in Health Care

Content

13Conclusions

14-21Olives & Berries Consulting: About

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Data Analytics Framework"I never failed once. It just happened to be a 2000-step process.“

Data analytics is typically aimed towards solving a problem to generate insights from data.

Typically, you have to go through the following steps to obtain a solution for a data analytics

problem (CRISP – DM Approach)

► Start by developing a business understanding around the

problem

► After developing the business understanding, you have to

recognize and understand the various data sets or sources

of data which can be leveraged to solve the problem at

hand and is called data understanding

► The third step is called data preparation

► The fourth step – modeling – After preparing the data,

models are built on it to solve the business problem at

hand and generate insights from the data

► Before the model is deployed, it needs to be evaluated to

check its accuracy, usefulness and to understand how well

it is performing

► The final step in the framework is model deployment.

Once the model passes the evaluation criterion, it is ready

for deployment

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Forecasting In Patient Admissions

► Business Problem – Forecasting IP

admissions volumes of Internal medicine

specialty with seasonality of Infections

and Dengue Admissions.

► Data Understanding – EMRD data of

Internal Medicine specialty of a hospital

from Jan-2012 of IP admissions and OP

Visits

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Forecasting In Patient Admissions

► Data preparation – Converting the data

into time series and viewing for trend,

seasonality and white noise

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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Forecasting In Patient Admissions

► Data preparation – Converting the data into time series and viewing

for trend, seasonality and white noise

► Training Data – 69 months and Testing data – Mar -17 to Sep-17

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

► In discrete time, white

noise is a discrete

signal whose samples

are regarded as a

sequence of serially

uncorrelated random

variables with zero

mean and finite

variance; a single

realization of white

noise is a random

shock

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Forecasting In Patient Admissions

► The fourth step – modeling – After preparing the data, models are built on it to

solve the business problem at hand and generate insights from the data

Sinusoidal Polynomial fitting

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Forecasting In Patient Admissions

► Before the model is deployed, check for model accuracy, usefulness and to

understand how well it is performing

MAPE ( Mean Absolute

Percentage Error) - 8.621%

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Forecasting In Patient Admissions

► The final step in the framework is model deployment. Once the model passes

the evaluation criterion, it is ready for deployment

► Prediction helps in better planning of strategy, marketing actions , medical

program to counter lean period

► Usual approach is to Plan and wait for results. With cognitive power of data

analytics one can predict, plan, modify and expect desired results

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Decision Trees for diagnosing Heart Disease

► Anemia is associated with a special risk in

proatherosclerotic conditions and heart disease

and became a new therapeutic target.

Management of patients with red blood cell

disorders and cardiovascular diseases, and

targets for hemoglobin level should be

established. Risk scores in several

cardiovascular diseases should include red

blood cell count and RDW

► Complete blood count and hemorheological

parameters represent useful, inexpensive,

widely available tools for the management and

prognosis of patients with coronary heart

disease, heart failure, hypertension, arrhythmias,

and stroke.

We see from above example that through decision model we can lead to

conditions leading to Heart Ailment

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Decision Trees for diagnosing Heart Disease

From above Logistic Regression model

Plasma Glucose and BMI levels are good

indicators for predicting Diabetes

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Use Cases of Data Analytics in Health Care

► Forecasting of sales & demand

► Using of multiple regression model in pricing and estimation of bills

► Using of Logistic regression models in arriving at probability scores on each employee’s attrition.

► Usage of Decision Tress and Random forests to arrive at correct diagnosis of diseases incidence

mapping

► Usage of logistic regression models in arriving at probability of patient contacting diseases

► Predictive models using neural networks in reading radiology images

► Fraud detection and Prevention tool

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Is Data Analytics Holier than Thou?

► Business analysis & decision making is much more than numbers and informational subsets

► Algorithms and programs created are not magic elixirs have inherent data biases

► Math and programming geniuses should be combined with “domain Knowledge”

► Cannot account for human behavior element in computations

► Data Analytics is an useful tool, exceeds cost to benefits and should be leveraged for business

planning, strategy, operations & decision making but is not necessarily a impenetrable fortress

every time

► Recent Gartner survey business are starting to realize “Big data was so yesterday, it’s all about

algorithms today”

► Future of Health care is all about Exploratory data analytics, predictive algorithms to anticipate

events, risks, control weakness sales and operations

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OnB

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O&B – How to do we deliver it rightHow are we different

► Our services are concentrated over entire processes and value chain of our clients and is

Quality, Efficiency , Value and Effectiveness focused

► We use Industry standard control frameworks, methodologies and benchmarks and base

our professional practices

► Extensive use of Data analytics and technology in our advisory services

► Highly skilled, Professional and Ethical Team of Practice leads and Associates

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Olives & Berries Consulting

Experienced and mature team

• Our partners and client come from diverse background with many years of experience in their respective fields.

• Our team has diverse industry sectors’ experience that is attained through working with some of the largest companies across the world.

• We leverage our partners and team-members basis the area of engagement based on skill set, cost and to enable seamless value based engagement execution

Clear vision and ethos

• As our name, Olives and Berries, suggests, we believe in contributing to driving business performance by providing absolute nutrition (read ‘value’)

• Our structure that revolves around client need as well as sector-based & solution-based requirement enables us to offer appropriate service optimally

• We aspire to be known as the best contributing professional services Practice

The organisation set-up

• We are equipped across India, in terms of team availability, to provide on-ground services instead of relying on ‘satellite-working’ culture.

• Determined to focus on specific service-lines such as Audit & Assurance, Fraud & Forensics Investigations, cyber security, compliance & contracts management, Data analytics, GST advisory, Strategic cost management, Lean Management & financial advisory based on the expertise of our team.

Value-for-money

• We understand that the client is looking for value – and that’s what we endeavour to provide.

• Our partners are mature and highly experienced in various facets of business. They are able to view the business problem from the client’s point of view and provide holistic yet simple solution

Olives & Berries Consulting stands for

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Our services’ portfolio

Business Advisory

•Process re-engineering

•Revenue Assurance and Fraud

Management

•Project Management

•Financial & Business planning

•Enterprise Asset Framework

•Management Information Systems

Cyber Security & IT Advisory

•Enterprise Security Architecture

Implementation

•General Data Protection Regulation

•Information Technology Audit

•Policies and processes designing

•Hardware & Software Asset

Management

•ERP Implementation

Risk Management

•Risk management

•Compliance Management

•Business Continuity Planning

•Financial Risk Management

•Vendor Risk Management

•Contract Compliance & Risk

Management

Human Resources Consulting

• Leadership Hiring support

• Leadership Head Hunting

• HR Framework designing

• Payroll Advisory

• Skills Development

• Organisation structure designing

• Labor Compliance Management

Accounting, Audit & Assurance

• Financial Audit

• Internal Audit

• Accounting support (back-office)

• Accounting Principles’ &

Standards’ Advisory

• Financial Statement Close

Tax Advisory

• Tax Audit

• GST Advisory

• Income Tax Advisory

• Mergers, Acquisitions and New

Entity Formation

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Our team has worked on these clients

ABBAgni

PropertiesAircel -Maxis

American Express

ANZ Ascendas Axa Axiata

Bharti Airtel Blue DartDelphi Diesel

SystemsDLF DST

EconetZimbabwe

Etisalat Fidelity

Financial Training Institute

FlipKartGATI

KintetsuGeneral Motors

Hewlett Packard

IBM IMI MobileIndian

School of Business

KennametalLN Bangur

GroupMarutiSuzuki

Microsoft MTN GroupMTS

(Systema)Neotel

South AfricaNestle

NetAppNokia

Siemens Networks

NowFloats OpenText Ola Rane Group Reliance JioRockwell Collins

Saudi Telecom Company

SLK SnapDeal SonySri

ChaitanyaVarsity

TanlaMobile

Solutions

Tata (TTSL & Tata Sky)

Tata Motors

Telkom South Africa

Toyota TVS groupUninor

(Telenor)Vedanta Vodafone Xiaomi Yatra

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Vikram R Sreedhar: Partner

EXPERTISE SUMMARY

▪ Designed, implemented & Managed Financial Planning and Analysis and MIS

across Manufacturing, Health Care, Retail, IT & Engineering sectors

▪ Designed ,implemented & Managed Activity Based costing & Standard Costing

Systems in Manufacturing, Engineering & Health care sectors.

▪ Conceptualized, Implemented & Managed new Enterprise Resource Systems in

manufacturing, retail and health care Sectors in India.

▪ Developed Business Valuation models in Retail, Engineering & health care sectors.

▪ Designed and developed statistical data analytics to seek optimizations in factors

underlying price, cost considerations & efficiency in operations across

manufacturing, retail & health care sectors.

▪ Designed and developed Fraud investigative tools to address inherent business

and transactional risks. Experience of Investigating more than 60 fraud across

manufacturing, Engineering, Retail and Health care sectors

▪ Conceptualized and implemented GST Solutions for health care sector.

▪ Managed Tax Audits and Indirect Taxation Compliance

▪ Optimized lead times in production & operational parameters in Manufacturing &

Engineering sectors through Value Chain Analysis, Transportation algorithms 6

Sigma tools & Linear Programming.

▪ Managed Internal Audit & IS Audit Assignments across industries

▪ Developed Data Visualization applications for Educational Services organization.

▪ Developed and Managed Predictive Analysis and Machine learning Algorithms to

solve operational issues in disease prediction, customer churn & Maintenance

management. Developed credit score for credit card customers in Banking &

Financial Sector

AREAS OF EXPERTISE

▪ Financial planning & MIS

▪ Direct, Indirect Taxation

▪ Financial & Business Modelling

▪ Financial & Corporate Valuations

▪ Internal Audit , IS Audit and Risk Management

▪ Forensic Services and Fraud Risk Management

▪ Data Analytics, Machine Learning, Predictive Analytics

INDUSTRY EXPERTISE

▪ Manufacturing, IT / ITES, Engineering, Retail,

Healthcare, Educational Services, F&B

EDUCATION & PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

▪ Certified Chartered Accountant (ACCA)

▪ Associate Cost & Mgt. Accountant (ACMA)

▪ Certified Internal Auditor

▪ Certified Information Systems Auditor

▪ Certified Fraud Examiner

▪ PG Diploma in Data Analytics (IIIT-B)

▪ PG Diploma in Business Administration

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Ritesh Agrawal: Partner

EXPERTISE SUMMARY

▪ Managed Budgeting and Financial Planning for one of the largest corporate groups

in Africa in the communications sector

▪ Delivered compliance management for one of the largest agri based business

houses in India. Engagement involved reviewing business processes and operations

and streamlining related compliances

▪ Managed an Analytics based Revenue Stream review (end-to-end) for the largest

telecom services operator in Africa. This worked on offshore data handling

capabilities, and required root cause analysis for every exception noted, on a

continuous basis.

▪ Managed Business Unit wise separation of financials of the largest telecom operator

in Middle-East. This involved bifurcation of revenues into Business Units using

Analytics and formulation of a tool to enable accounting separation by the Company.

▪ Leader for analytics solution at a Big4 accounting firm in India – for Internal Audit

and Risk reviews. During this, Ritesh formulated, designed, set-up and

operationalized the analytics tool and function for Internal Audit

▪ Managed review of deferred revenue accounting process for prepaid business in

South Africa’s largest fixed line operator. The scope of this engagement included

forensic investigation of the perpetrators that have effected change in voucher

status

▪ Managed a analytical review of telecom MIS for one of the largest telecom operators

in Africa and middle-east. The assignment involved understanding the key MIS

parameters, identifying relevant sources for MIS compilation, understanding the

systems used by the operator and ensuring accuracy of the MIS prepared. It also

involved data analysis and trend analysis of the MIS data and its source data to

facilitate in concluding upon the accuracy and relevance of the various KPIs

reported

AREAS OF EXPERTISE

▪ Financial planning & MIS

▪ Compliance Management

▪ Analytics, Automation and IoT

▪ Internal Audit and Risk Management

▪ Cyber Security and Information Risk Management

▪ Forensic Services and Fraud Risk Management

INDUSTRY EXPERTISE

▪ Manufacturing, E-commerce and Agri-based sectors

▪ Technology , IT / ITeS

EDUCATION & PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

▪ Chartered Accountant (ICAI)

▪ Certified Internal Auditor

▪ Certified Information Systems Auditor

▪ ISO27001: Lead Auditor

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Thank You

Ritesh AgrawalPartnerOlives & Berries Consulting

+91 9886709583ritesh@onbconsulting.com

Vikram R SreedharPartnerOlives & Berries Consulting

+91 9986633794vikram@onbconsulting.com

Office:

Olives & Berries ConsultingLorven Co Works#756, 2nd Floor, 10th Main, Jayanagar, 4th BlockBangalore 560011