Computing Power, processing and memory for Intelligent language and Situation understanding

Cognitive Systems & the New Era of Computing

Dr. Ton Engbersen

Dr. Ton Engbersen

May, 2013

© 2013 IBM Corporation

Dr. Ton Engbersen

Scientific Director ASTRON & IBM Center for Exascale Technology,Mgr. Energy ManagementMember IBM Academy of Technology – Past VP Europe

IBM Zurich Research Laboratory – Switzerland.

IBM Research Globalization

China

WatsonAlmaden Austin Tokyo

Zurich

India

Dublin

Haifa

© 2013 IBM Corporation

IBM Research Labs

Australia

Brazil

� Semiconductors� Processors

Africa

IBM Research Collaborations

China

WatsonAlmaden Austin Tokyo

Zurich

India

Dublin

Haifa

New YorkAlmaden

Austin Tokyo

Haifa

India

ChinaDOME

© 2013 IBM Corporation

IBM Research Labs

Australia

Brazil

Africa

Austin

© 2013 IBM Corporation

250 Dense Aperture Arrays 2500 Dishes

3-Core Central Region

SKA Array & Receptor Technologies

© 2013 IBM Corporation

250 Sparse Aperture Arrays

Artists’ Renditions from Swinburne Astronomy Productions

© 2013 IBM Corporation

Up to 10,000 Times larger

Data

Scale

Exa

Peta

Tera

Da

ta a

t R

es

t

Big Data

SKA

© 2013 IBM Corporation

Up to 10,000 times faster

Traditional Data Warehouse and

Business Intelligence

Data

Scale

yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs

Giga

Mega

Kilo

Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time

Data in Motion

Da

ta a

t R

es

t

SKA as an example

RCU Board

A/D

GbE

sw

itch

(2

4 p

ort

s)

RSP Board

WAN

Output

Filter

Filter

Filter

ΣΣΣΣ

ΣΣΣΣ

ΣΣΣΣ

Beamformer

150 Tbit/s 150 Tbit/s 150 Tbit/s 150 Tbit/s (all stations)(all stations)(all stations)(all stations)

25..250 25..250 25..250 25..250 PByte/dayPByte/dayPByte/dayPByte/day

© 2013 IBM Corporation

Backplane& RF Shield

DistributedBeamforming

Sta

tio

nG

bE

sw

itch

(2

4 p

ort

s)

WAN fibreconnections

RSP board 24

Output

controlFilter ΣΣΣΣ

14 EByte/day 14 EByte/day 14 EByte/day 14 EByte/day (all antennas)(all antennas)(all antennas)(all antennas)

1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day

© 2013 IBM Corporation

25 … 250 PB/day25 … 250 PB/day25 … 250 PB/day25 … 250 PB/day 1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day1… 3 PB/Day

Top 500: Sum=123 PFlops. 2GFlops/watt.

���� 100x Flops of Sum! ���� ~ 7GWh

System Analysis

Computing Transport Storage

-P1: Algorithms & Machines

© 2013 IBM Corporation

Computing Transport Storage

- P3: Nanophotonics

- P7: RT-Communications

- P6: Compressive

Sampling

- P4: Microservers

- P5: Accelerators

- P2: Access Patterns

P8: Project Lead

Up to 10,000 Times larger

Data

Scale

Exa

Peta

Tera

Da

ta a

t R

es

t

© 2013 IBM Corporation

Up to 10,000 times faster

Traditional Data Warehouse and

Business Intelligence

Data

Scale

yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs

Giga

Mega

Kilo

Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time

Data in Motion

Da

ta a

t R

es

t

© 2013 IBM Corporation

© 2013 IBM Corporation

The Growth of Uncertain Data Presents a Challenge to Today’s Computers:

Cognitive Computing

Exa

byte

s

9000

8000

7000

6000

Percentage of uncertain data

Pe

rce

nt o

f un

ce

rtain

da

ta

100

80

60

Sensors & Devices

© 2013 IBM Corporation14

2010

Vo

lum

e in

Exa

byte

s

6000

5000

4000

3000

2015

Pe

rce

nt o

f un

ce

rtain

da

ta

40

20

0

You are here

VoIP

Enterprise Data

Social Media

Big Data is Ushering in a New Era of Computing

Cognitive Computing

Volume Velocity Variety Veracity

© 2013 IBM Corporation15

Terabytes to exabytes of existing data to process

Streaming data, milliseconds to seconds to respond

Structured, unstructured, text and multimedia

Uncertainty from inconsistency, ambiguities, etc.

Eras of Computing

Cognitive Computing

Tabulating Systems Programmable Systems Cognitive Systems

© 2013 IBM Corporation16

� Sorting and counting

� Sales

� Inventory

� Accounting/general ledger

� Transaction processing

� Database marketing

� e-Commerce

� Near real-time decision support

� Cog.ni.tive: of or pertaining to the mental processes of perception, memory, judgment, learning, and reasoning.

On February 14, 2011, IBM Watson changed history . . .

Cognitive Computing

© 2013 IBM Corporation17

The New Era of Computing – Cognitive Systems

Cognitive Computing

Training and Learning EnginesTo Build Models and Define Insight Policy Engine

(Natural Interfaces)

Society Nature Institutions Archives

© 2013 IBM Corporation18

To Build Models and Define Insight

Hypothesis EnginesTo Understand and Plan Actions

Policy EngineBusiness, Legal

and Ethical Rules

Verification Engines(e.g. Simulations)

Active Learning

Outcome EngineActuation and Validation

Watson vs. Brain: Big Efficiency Gap Calls for Technology Innovation

Cognitive Computing

Sys

tem

Po

we

r (W

)

5 nm

15 to 11 nm45 nm

Watson Power Scalingwith Moore’s Law

> 1,000x

© 2013 IBM Corporation19

Sys

tem

Po

we

r (W

)

Year

with Moore’s Law> 1,000xEfficiencyGap*

*brain does far more than scaled Watson

Human Brain

Cognitive Computing

CognitiveCognitiveComputingComputing

© 2013 IBM Corporation20

NanotechnologyNanotechnology

ComputingComputing

Cognitive Computing

Brain can Integrate and Co-ordinate Multiple Sensory, Motor Modalities

© 2013 IBM Corporation21

Cognitive Computing

Computers and the Brain: Different & Complementary

© 2013 IBM Corporation22

Integrates memory and processor

Parallel, distributed processing

Event-driven, low active power

Does “nothing” better, low passive power

Learning system, reconfigurable, fault-tolerant

Substrate and pattern recognition

Separates memory and processor

Sequential, centralized processing

Ever increasing clock rates, high active power

Huge passive power

Programmed system, hard-wired, fault-prone

Algorithms and analytics

Cognitive Computing

“Mimicking” the Brain:

© 2013 IBM Corporation23

"Spikes“ as Computational

Primitives

W_0*w(0)

W_1*w(1)

W_i*w(i)

W_n*w(n)

Threshold

0/1∑

0

1

i

n

Cognitive Computing

© 2013 IBM Corporation

First cognitive computing chips developed at IBM Research – Almaden

Learn more at ibm.com/synapse

24

Cognitive Computing

SynapsesScheduler

Demonstrated Two Neurosynaptic Cores in 45nm CMOS-SOI

© 2013 IBM Corporation

Neurons

(a)256 neurons, 64K synapses, 1MHzLearning on board

(b)256 neurons, 256K synapses, asynchronous, 45 pJ/spike

25

~ 1000x Human Brain

Cognitive Computing

© 2013 IBM Corporation26

IBM Watson brings together a set of transformational technologies to drive optimized outcomes

99%

60%

10%

Understandsnatural language and human speech

Generates and evaluates

hypothesis for better outcomes

2

1

Cognitive Computing

© 2013 IBM Corporation27

human speech

Adapts and Learns from user selections and responses

3IBM Watson represents a new class of cognitive

solutions built on a massively parallel probabilistic

evidence-based architecture

Challenge

� Rising caseloads: 1.6 million new cancer cases this year in the US alone*

� Complexity of cancer: a disease with hundreds of sub-types

� Non-specialists cannot keep up with rapidly changing information

Case Study: A Cognitive System Applied to Medical Diagnosis

Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center

Cognitive Computing

© 2013 IBM Corporation28*American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts and Figures 2012

changing information

Solution

� Combine IBM Watson with Sloan Kettering’s clinical knowledge, molecular and genomic data and vast repository of cancer case histories, along with updated guidelines and published research

� Share evidenced-based options to oncologists anywhere to help them decide how best to care for an individual patient

Watson just keeps getting smarter

First applications for lung, breast and prostate cancers

under development.

Pilots to begin with a select group of oncologists by

year-end

Bio-InspiredComputation

InAs

Neuromorphic & Quantum Devices

Non-Von NeumannArchitectures

Von NeumannArchitectures

Algorithms

New Devices, Architectures &

Computing Paradigms

New ArchitecturesLeveraging

100’s of Billions of

Inc

rea

sin

g E

ffic

ien

cy

Computing Without Programming

+Neuromorphic

Devices &Circuits

Quantum Devices & Circuits

50µm

Device and Technology Roadmap

Cognitive Computing

© 2013 IBM Corporation29

Time

Subsystem Integration(3D, SCM, Photonics)

CarbonElectronics

High-k

Nanowires

Vddh

ck2_hick2b_hi

ck2

ck2bck2_lo

ck2b_loen

Vc=Vddh-Vdd

(constant)

Vddh

ck2_hick2b_hi

ck2

ck2bck2_lo

ck2b_loen

Vc=Vddh-Vdd

(constant)

Low VCircuits & Architecture

InAs

Si

Low VDevices

ReconfigurableLogic

Architectures

Today

Accelerators

Spintronic& Magnetic

100’s of Billions of Low-Voltage Devices

Existing Architectures

Inc

rea

sin

g E

ffic

ien

cy

Computing with Programs: Fetch Instructions, Decode, Execute & Repeat.

FPGA’s

Cognitive Computing

Biologically-Inspired Learning Systems

© 2013 IBM Corporation30

1014

Synapses1014

Synapses

Cognitive ComputingC

om

pu

ter

Inte

llig

en

ce

Watson2011

CognitiveSystems

Cognitive Systems: The New Tools for the 21st CenturyThe New IT

Frontier

“Within ten years a digital computer will be the world's chess

champion” 1958,H. A. Simon and Allen Newell

© 2013 IBM Corporation31Time

Co

mp

ute

r In

tell

igen

ce

Counting Machine

Circa 1820

ENIACcirca 1945

AntikytheraAstronomical

Computercirca 87 BC

Abacuscirca

3500 BC

Napier’’’’s Rodscirca 1600

System/360 1964

Deep Blue1997

Calculators

“There is a sense from many places that whoever figures out how the brain computes will come up with the next generation of computers,”

says Dr. Thomas Insel, the director of the USA National Institute of Mental Health.

© 2013 IBM Corporation32