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Cohort fertility, parity progression, and family size
in former Yugoslav countries during the 20th century
Ivan Čipin, Kryštof Zeman, Petra Međimurec
3rd HFD Symposium, 5 December 2018, Vienna
INTRODUCTION
Before 1918: Austrian Empire, Ottoman Empire
1918 – 1941: Kingdom of Yugoslavia
1945 – 1991: Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
1990s breakup, wars
DiversityCrossroads of cultures
Complex interplay of historical, political, economic, and social factors
regional and ethnical similarities and dissimilarities in demographic trends and patterns
marriage and family dynamics
urbanisation (de-ruralisation) and forced industrialization
female educational expansion
female economic activity
religion
wars during the twentieth century
family planning – birth control, contraception and abortion
population/family policies
Homogeneity within Yugoslavia’s heterogeneity?
DATA AND METHODS
Census data on women by number of children ever born + cohort
Completed cohort fertility rate (CFR)
Parity progression ratios (PPR)
Parity composition (childless etc.)
Data available at www.cfe-database.org
Country Code Available censuses Population Census 1948
Population Census 1991
Population 2018
Bosnia and Herzegovina
BIH 1948, 1991, 2013 2.6 4.4 3.5
Croatia HRV 1948, 1991, 2001, 2011 3.8 4.8 4.1
Kosovo RKS 1948, 1961, 1971, 1981, 2011 0.7 1.9 1.8
Macedonia MKD 1948, 1994, 2002 1.2 2.0 2.1
Montenegro MNE 1948, 1991, 2003, 2011 0.4 0.6 0.6
Serbia SRB1948, 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991, 2002,
20115.8 7.8 7.0
Slovenia SVN 1948, 1991, 2002, 2011 1.4 2.0 2.1
CENSUS DATA: SERBIA EXAMPLE
COHORT COMPLETED FERTILITY RATE
A very clear pattern of country clusters
Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia: on a similar path to low(er) fertility
Bosnia and Macedonia: high fertility at first, then a fast decline
Kosovo remains an exception
REASONS??
CHILDLESSNESS
No clear pattern in childlessness
We have to look at higher parities
PROPORTION OF WOMEN WITH 6+ CHILDREN
Differences in CFR best described by proportion of very large families; women with 6 or more children
PREVAILING PARITY
Two-child families quickly prevalent in all countries except Kosovo
Shift from 6+ to 2-child families very fast
PARITY COMPOSITION 1880->1920->1960
Again a clear formation of 3 clusters based on parity composition
PARITY PROGRESSION RATIOS 1880->1920->1960
PPR23 and PPR34 already declined in all countries except Kosovo
Now PPR12 and PPR23 make the difference
PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO 1->2
PPR23 and PPR34 already declined in all countries except Kosovo
Now PPR12 and PPR23 make the difference
PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO 2->3
PPR23 and PPR34 already declined in all countries except Kosovo
Now PPR12 and PPR23 make the difference
CONCLUSIONS & NEXT STEPS
Three routes to low(er) cohort fertility
A common preference for two-child families emerged in all countries; + the curious case of Kosovo
For now: most likely explanation – changing social norms on family size? (within-marriage fertility regulation)
EXTENSION OF THE DATABASE
NEW DIMENSIONS – EDUCATION
THANK YOU
Acknowledgements:This research is funded by the Centre of International Cooperation and Mobility (ICM) of the Austrian Agency for International Cooperation in Education and Research (OeAD-GmbH) under the program Scientific & Technological Cooperation (WTZ) with Croatia 2018, project number HR 25/2018.