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7/31/2019 Cold War Era Hard Target Analysis of Soviet and Chinese Policy and Decision Making, 1953-1973
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Historical collections Division
introDuction
tHe caesar, Polo, anD esauPaPers overview
General HayDens remarksat sHaFr conFerence
annotateD BiBlioGraPHy: caesar
annotateD BiBlioGraPHy: Polo
annotateD BiBlioGraPHy: esau
01
02
03
07
17
21
12
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th H c D (HcD) ciai mg s pb xg h ag H r Pg.th pg d d d d h d h ag d g hg p d . HcD g dg h b d b h
p b dpg d php hghgh h d b h bd dpb.
The mission o HCD is to:
P , bj d-dg h d -g h h hpd hp h -d j us p d.
Bd d, p-
g h phzh p d x p .
ip d-g d - b g f h pd g p d.
sh cia b d pd h a pb h bgh h g g.
D h cia h opG i d h :tp, Pp, d cb.
HISTORICAL COLLECTIONS DIVISION
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introductionth dd gphd d, dgd h h cig ag (cia) D i-g (Di) h caesar, Polo, d esau ,
g d 26 J 2007. thg d h
q h h b hhd d-. n dd d h
b dd h 2007 .
th b d dbbgph d DvD g
h d .
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Cold War Era Hard TargetAnalysis o Soviet and ChinesePolicy and Decision Making,1953-1973
th dd -gph d d, dgd h hc ig ag (cia) D ig (Di) h caesar, Polo, d esau, g d 26 J 2007 h g h s H a Fg r (sHaFr). th d- f h d hhd d h p hd h hpd hddb. cg pb h , fd q hgh Fd i d ex od h, dcia o i mg s
(ims) d h D i-g d d h d h d d h d d. th 147 d- h , g 11,000pg , b 1953 d1973. th d g b dd gph d h h b p dd dd dd q. th g d h -qd h h b hhd d.
i h d p p h s u dch ppd b h g ,
h d dd caesar,esau, d Polo d dd hd g pd pd g p. rh,h h gh dp p-
h dg b p h d b bdg p g p hgh h -. cq, h h pd gh p cia hg h pd d h d d b h g pb.
t h D ig--t e, D ho e a a, d J n, s xp pd h - h mh lz, ir o h D cia d b h H c D ims. ahd , H G, ch h s D h o r-g d P a, h bd hd dg h bhp h h pdd h d.
History o the Research
th g cias h h s- u d c ch d gg h g dg h 1950 h d -g d bg dd . th D cia(Dci) pdd b gg - h o c ig (oci) cias Di bh Pj caesar 1952.
th pp h caesar pj d b h b , dh g, h s dhp h-h. th h d b h d -d g pp, h hh th D P, d J 1953. th dd h d p cia g h
THE CAESAR, POLO, AND ESAU PAPERS
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h g, h, h h Dp s d h ns ag, bd h pj-. i , Pj caesar pd hDi -, -dph h d.
i spb 1956, r c, h-D oci, ddd bh h dgd h s-s sd Gp(sssG) h oci. th sssG hcaesar pj h g hd: Polo, d 1956 dh ch c hh,1 d esau,
hd 1959 x h s-shp. c dd h h ddh h dd hs p d, d, d d pp, d h h xp c ch.
sbq, h sssG gh xpdd,d, d hgd . i 1963, c hd b Dp D ig(DDi), h ddd h h ocid h h h DDi sprh s (, rh s).
c h p g b h hghp h h hd pd pdg d h s-sdp g pp h cia d h g d dpg p g p.2 F hx dd, h h d g hg- h pg h gd p h gz.
1 Although begun in 1956, no recoverable monographs in the
POLO series have been located in CIAS document recordsprior to 1961. The titles o two o the earliest POLO mono-
graphs, however, have been identied as Evolution o the
Central Organs o the Chinese Communist Party (1921-1958)
and Chinese Communist Party and the Intellectuals.
2 This sta [OCIs SSSG] compiled the data that permitted CIA
to lead the way--against urious opposition elsewhere-in chart-
ing the strategic confict between Soviet and Chinese styles o
dictatorship and doctrine tha t was basic to the denitive split in
1960. Ray S. Cline, Secrets, Spies, and Scholars: Blueprint of the
Essential CIA (Washington, DC. Acropolis Books, Ltd., 1976). p. 151.
th d h h , d h d h d b- d h , w P.(Bd) shd, g hhd hd q xp ch g dg h chc h d wd w ii. i , h q, pg h p ch d h s u. ag b shd, Php Bdgh, dDd Zg; 1961, h gp bshd, Bdgh, H G d ah c.
ch. i , h z h g ppx gh g ddd. a h g h gh pd bh gb g cd p - b-g hd h, b pp d h s u d cch d h hp b h .
a g pp, h d pdd b h dd q d hh p cia h g hg . th dd
p h h h hh DDi p g. th d dd ocip hg , , -. r c, h h bhdh h --
D oci d h DDi-- d-d h h pd dd b p h gh hhbd h x g .
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Objectives o the Seriesth g h rh s xp dph h p h d d dp d - p h g .
u, h ph h d pd g h d h s d ch dhp d d g p.
th gd h hp. s q d gd g, h h h s-sdp d dhp p d -g h ussr d ch. oh p p p h g- h h p h cia, pp h Di h pg.
th h dd b b-d g h h d-pd h h p h ag,oci , d h b h o n e (one), h hD P, d h h d- cias Fg Bdg is (FBis). th gh d pb h qdxp d cia--bh h h i-g c d hgh d.3
th x h bd h cia h h h d. th pd- d dp hp bh d xpd b dd , h p d h b-j gh g pg, h h p, h dg dp-g h c g. whh oci - gd dgd h g d, h g dpg d
3 For a number o years, the Special Research Sta was CIAS
primary representative interacting with the academic world. Some
members or ormer members o the Sta (Zagoria, Bridgham,
Cohen, and Gelman) published books or articles in academic
journal s on matters concern ing the Chinese and Soviet leadersh ips.
bdg b h g dd d b oci d DDi dhp.
ahgh g d p- h pb h, p oci--h rh s pdd b d pdg bgd ddg h- . F x-p, h Polo dd db h d-1960 1973 xg m c r, hbdg h p pd ph d d
dg g . s h gph h c r gh b g p dpg ph.
oci g, p, gzd hd h d pb g gh pg- h. e hgh oci g d dd, , qdb h b h h, h pd qd d h- jdg, d dd bd
b dg. th, h srs d q pd, b b h - d h q dp hhd b hd p h d h -g d gg dd g pp h p.
m d, h h xd, p p d hp dh h pd b h dp gph h pd hd g.4
4 Mention must also be made o the stimulating contribution
to CIA analysis urnished in the 1950s and 1960s by the ana-
lytical component o FBIS, despite the act that this component
throughout the years o its existence was obliged to use only
unclassied rather than all-source evidence. In addition, the
FBIS analytical group served as a valuable training ground or
analysts who later worked in OCI or the Research Sta.
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Reorganization o the Missione, 1973 h DDi rh s bhd d bbd o P rh (oPr). oPr xpd d -dph , bdggph b, b p d dp- p g-g us d. th, h g 1976,oPr pd h o rgd P a (orPa) h d hgd h xpg h h pph,phzg dp d pd-
g g-g pp. i 1981 h -- bdd b- g d pddp h d.
i p, h pd pdd b hsp rh s xpd cia h. nh,h p bh dp h h - p bdg p- h g .
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Remarks o Central Intelligence AgencyDirector Gen. Michael V. Hayden atthe Society or Historians o AmericanForeign Relations Conerence
(as prepared for delivery)
J 21, 2007
th h. a g d h, i p h d, i j. s i p pd p h - h h dghd gp.
l h, i hd h pg b h - p , Dqu. i d h c 2007 h h
d i d h gh h g h, h hh -hg d hg .
th h h . wh d db h h p. ad h h h a F d g, h p hh h g p.
n, h h g h Dq, h d h ph,d h , d Foiaq. td p d hcia
h h a pp. mp, h h gd cia b bg: d p h hp p a- d d h pb b b h d h bh.
l xp h i b h -. i d b h i p - j g, d i ph-zd d d d cia . i pp d.
a gz g p d , cia h b gd - pb . th h d. n g p, b g . eh d, h h d ddb g z xp : s, bd,d pg h h d rpb. th .
H d i : i i d bh b Pbgh sb- h cia h d d h, d h? wd h p b?
General Haydens Remarksat the SHAFR annual meeting
General Michael Hayden -Director, Central Intelligence Agency, 2006-2009.
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o , h a pphg d p h h d-gg b p h. wh g, pb g dgh d h cg. B h h d h -b h 300 a . i b d h d dh h d g d p h d x.th h d p .
th ag h d h
h h p p d . th hg pb. sp p, h d-d h g .
y g h d gh d. w b p-b h pb, d h, xp d h p, h bg p , hd, d gg ghp. th p, -d-dd. th p g db h q d, bj, jdg-
. w h h db d hjdg g h jpdza , d, , p . a g gz h p h h h g - d dd d p d p dh. s, , h x q .
Dp h px, cia gz h b h f g pb -ddg d . th b: n h g g h
d d d.
F h pg oss dd h 1980, x d- a g , hcb , h u-2 pg, d g n e h su, ch, v d yg, cia d- h bd g h hd. J ddd h dh h d h - B t p d cia
h p pg sh v.
th pj h p bd h. th ch , t-g h Dg, h h b ch h, d h yg d gd sb.
o Foia pg . i h h , cia h dd b-g b 3,000 q. th d pd h dg, d g d d , hh -px d g b d.
i h x, h pd d- d ppg h -d F J, d h dd g, hD shg d p p h hgh gh b hh ag h. mh h b hp b, d fg, b cia h. th d pd gp d d d ag.wh h dd d, p h pb wb , j h h h, g .
ud h pg h d 25 d, cia h d d d31 pg p d d.o hd h b -x hd h n ah cg P - g crest, d h .
J h, cia d d dd d h a-h420,000 pg. th d,
h p d, h g : Fhd g, pp h 1940 d 50, h ddp h Ds&t, d p d h dhp .
kp d, h db, h b, hghcrest d wb . w pd h d xpg d ,dg pb dp h crest
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dd d d dp-. t d, h 650,000 pg hb pd crest, d h db hgh h -d g d d pb.
ad b h hg b g dd hpp h h -. w d j h hg h d. w h x h d pg hgh h -d p i -d. i . i . i .
n, h b h-, b h p, g h hddd h d p .
i hd gh p h d pg g -d. th h pdddd pd .th p h b g dd p q g h h-g g h ud s d: ,p p, i, iq, d nh k-, j . th p p hd 9/11d hd ag h.
th gd h h pdg g h. th hg d h d gg qzd. w h d p dd h h . c hg qd b , b d . D- pj h h300 nie php h h n i-g c, d h d hdd sd igg h pp p p , h h xp hp cia h.
s h h ag d- p bd Foiad 25- bg?
F, g pp h s Dp- Fg r h ud s
. cia dd h p h d h. w h g p d p g p d. i h h h d Frus, d i g g gd h h mhP h . B g, h b hd d h. th b g ha pp h h d h .
a , h bgg hg h cia dg h x hh - b dd p p
g p. o h , ghd d d h b p . th b : w h h dg-g gg hp h g p.
a d p g d g h pd b. B b- h d b h h h, d - h 25- pg.
thd, p g h hnic, hh p h o h D- n ig, d - n ig e.
ad h, d- cd w d.w h h pp ph pg d w- P pg, xp.
ad, b h h a F d h n- r o, cia h hdd pg h dp ddp h a-12 oXcart. th p
, hh dpd hlhd h u-2, f nh v d nh k 1967-68.th g ghd hpd a b dg h p dh d. i d h uss Pb, siGint hp h h nh k hd zd.th h d jh 60h b spb.
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th h d h d, hgh.td, i b h -. k d cia h caesar-Polo-esau pp, p -dphh d s d ch p d s-s .
th b h d147 d -g h 11,000 pg - d b 1953 d 1973.
wh b h h hd dd hd -g pd p. rh, hh d bd b -dg hh hgh h i-g c d d. i dg , hd h h hD ig, b h p- , h d hFg Bdg i s ( h op s c), d h d g xp hgh d.
th caesar d Polo pp, hh ddh s d ch dhp hh,p, hpd pp -g h d g c g. ad d h esau d g pp g g h b-j Di s-s - h dd p.
th xp h p h gh p h h pp h -d d h ghd, b h d h ig c.th jdg h pp ppd b g d d .F, b h d b - d, d , h pb,b h f h d - h d h p h d h hpd h-hd db h cd w.
B g, h b -b h cia b Foia e- rdg r. B , h - h p g . s p h , d hd h , h h.
i d h cia gz h b h f g pb dd-g . i xpd h, b gz.
G p d hg .
F, hp h pb, cg, d h x- bh pp h g d g- cia . i h ag h hgh h g, bh h gh b h d h h. th gh ddd, d pp i h hd h gd g h.
a, g d h g d b pd hp pp dd h . a z h - p g, p
9/11. th gd hg. B q -p pp dd h h- g .
cia d d pdb.th pb px d, h , fd b h bh, hh px d d pd. w d h h p hdd, hh ddh d . s h h p g, , h g d p.
op, p d h- d, xp h pb hhg cia d. o ag, dp , h x bh d , d h d h b.
o jb dd d xp h d . th p, hgh, h d . w xpd h d d b pdg
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g d gg pp. th p. th dd h b , d dd h bbj. sg h x b d p , d i h h- d g p d h -g hpg , h p .
a h d, h p-b, cia : w h d d b d . v , p - h ph
dh g h dd gg g p. ad,, h b g h d d p , hh b , d h h h d h .
wh h pg , dd h -d g h , ph gdd h bd, g h h x. s, h d d h pb gh djdg b cia d .
a h i d cia ,i h h Pb r Bd, ddd gp h b dh g b d .i d h hg h pp h , b d bd. i d i xpd cia bd p bd dg h d-d, d d d p pd gd d.
i d h h d d hd p h hh , b d h dg h h g, dg d. i , h , h b h, b h h hd b. th b d, h b g, h d, p h gh .
a h h g, cia zd d d pg h p . w dd h d
h p , h g hd h h D, d pq, , d bj gh,pd dp. th pph g ch i mg s g hd h dq dh d d ppp d- d. w d h b, , p, d db.
i b h pph pcia dg h p d dd g, dg pp
. i gh b d- h pb b q d b .
i hp gd h p. i b d, pp d d b h g gh p d h x h, h . w d h h a pp. wh h p g qd, z d h .
th g h pp b h. i b p.
About SHAFR
The Society or Historians o American Foreign
Relations (SHAFR) is dedicated to the scholarly
study o the history o American oreign relations.
As such, it promotes the the study, advancement
and dissemination of a knowledge of American
Foreign Relationsthrough the sponsorship o
research, annual meetings, and publications.
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ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHYCAESAR
1. th D P, 15 J 1953. 17 pg.
o 15 J 1953, Pravda d d- h Jh pg hussr d dg a.s. shhb d a.a.Zhd. th d d -
pg d g: mhv, k d G, G shd ad lh. th p-d g h ppgd d bgh p us h...b pg hh hd g inside h ussr.
2. Dh s, 16 J 1953. 24 pg.
th pp s b- s d d p- h dh.
3. th r h D P d
id ah, 16 J 1953. 14 pg.o 4 ap, h h pbzd d p pdd g pb .
4. G, 16 J 1953. 6 pg.
od h s u, h G- pd h d h pb d b h s dhpd h d hh hd hdg h.
5. m r h u,17 J 1973. 6 pg.
u p h g h dh s d h pg l.G. m h p h up 12 J....th p s d- h b d h dh s.
6. th Zhd-m rhp,29 J 1953. 17 pg.
th hph q dd hZhd d m ggd b
p f s d - h s c P....mb p h f d xp h pb- s p h p- .
7. th B P: ag 1948 ob 1950, 5 ag 1953. 20 pg.
Fg h dh ad Zhd, m- pd pd p p hs hh d pp d -bh h P pp b -g pg p Zhd dh.
8. id d s: 1950-1952,21 ag 1953. 25 pg.
Fg h h nh k sh k d h h ch c- d un k, s dg g d b us
d us-pd g w d. th pp b p -d b h bh us b - pph h ussr. i p h,s p d d p.
9. P d h s a: Dp ob 1952 g h p h s d , 12 mh 1954. 54 pg.
th d h p-s pd d d h p hgh hd h d h d dd gp g h hgh-g
d, d h f h d h xd h h g.
10. Pg l.P. B, 17 ag 1954. 39 pg.
B , hh hd b dg d-1951, xd hgh -g s dh.... rzg h qdp h b d d h qd h d p , h g gp
Accompanying DVD contains all documents listed in the bibliography. Documents can also be ac-
cessed from CIAs FOIA Electronic Reading room at www.foia.cia.gov/cpe.asp.
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pp dd p h p- s p b dd. i h ppd h h d h B g h bd h p; pb, b h h h h .
10-a. sz rp PdgB Pg, 17 ag 1954. 20 pg.
11. rg m,12 spb 1955. 66 pg.
a b dg p h bdd xp h d G.m. m-
Fb 1955 h p h h ussr c m.... th gpp b d -x h p-p d bd p h d-hp pb h ussr. th -x dd g h d - m p.
12. r Dp P s s- ad F, 20 spb 1955. 68 pg.
i h pp h pp z b hh d pd hx h h s
p d p pp h p h h h x s dhp.
13. s v cp,30 J 1956. 70 pg.
th pp h p d xh d hg d h d- d f p s p, d p dh p h s p.
14. th sz ca t h ussr mdde P, 3 J 1957. 18 pg.
th mdd e ppd b nz h sz c cp hhd h i d ag-Fh egp d h s d h hh pg h b ds egp d qg h pd d h s-qppdegp d d h n g.
15. F h Hgw (c) P (1945-1956),28 J 1957. 94 pg.
th pp p d d zh j q, , d g hHg w (c) p 1945 hgg s p dd dh f h h d d d h h.
16. s e P: Db1956-m 1957, 8 J 1957. 51 pg.
th d p p gh -b d d p- h g h h s p d h -gh h h pd h pb h s d dg h pd.
17. D tp ags ld sh b h apph P i, 30 ob 1957. 42 pg.
th g pp p dh p pd d p g p- s d b h p
h pd p p dp.th p p Zhd, vz,m, B, m, kgh, khh-h, m, d Zh xd hghh p dp h k p dg , ch,h 20h P cg d -s.
18. F h J P h J P(1955)ad d ah mrg h Php,12 mh 1958. 57 pg.
th h h dg p d
m g, d d g m d b-d bq, d d pd pp d p hg- d h h Fb 1955.
19. F h J P (1955) h 20h Pcgad d ah m rg h Php,19 J 1958. 69 pg.
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khhh g s p d p d h -q f b m d m h h p d hdb dd, d db h dd kh d s h pd b hJ p d g h .
20. th t th Bds ibr: Fb 1956 D 1957,29 J 1958. 55 pg.
th ussr p-s p h dgd g , d,
d, d pb h -c d.
21. th F h s-ygrpph, 3 nb 1958. 26 pg.
i m hd b p y-g dpd , d hyg hd d ddg , Bgd d-d g p g p h h ussr d h pdd f b h .
22. P-m r h ussr d hF mh Zh, 8 J 1959. 41 pg.
th Zh d- d g h . ob m dd hh h d b pd h- p, d p hp, dd. th pd .
23. th s w d s c P,15 spb 1959. 57 pg.
th p g d, p-
pg 1953 p b g h dd h s d dpg hdg bbh d d g , -dd p f h hd p hdx. wh h b d h p h ppd, 1954 d g 1956, xpd h d d- p h hdd p.... i
h d pd ,s h dd p g d pp -hd b h g s .
24. th s H wd w ii,28 ob 1959. 61 pg.
th pp q pd bh d h h h h s u. wh h g gg h g h ?wh p bg pd? wh h p d p?
25. khhh n sg,19 J 1960. 41 pg.
th pp z hkhhh h d pb ph d pg 1957 hgh h p h sp s 14 J 1960.
26. th s khhh,4 mh 1960. 14 pg.
th pp d h pp h pd p d h
pp h khhh.27. s P td h uddpdc, 28 ap 1961. 122 pg.
th g pp, hg hdp p s p -d d h gddb m hg hd d-g dpd p.
28. s m thgh F w,3 ap 1962. 63 pg.
th pp bd p s-
, pp h h - j d xb ddd d p.
29. khhh d h -p gp,27 ap 1962. 28 pg.
th g pp, hhg khhh b h -p gpd b m, m d kgh.
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30. s sg D h s w,3 J 1962. 44 pg.
Bh d d p s d h h ussr h ddd gp h d p-p .
31. s m Pb d h chPb, 26 ap 1963. 32 pg.
Hg d h 1950 g ch- p m-db-d , h s hdd xd ch d h - j s pg db d gz.
32. khhh r h cc o s D P,17 J 1963. 28 pg.
i h p g dp hs -d ph h cb, h gh d khhh b-j d h p , d gg h pg pg h pg .
33. uhdx id h u.s.s.r.,
27 J 1963. 46 pg.th p h p d h gg d p d d xpd b g s- z h w .sbj d: h g , p- h ussr, g, s , s g p, bhhd, mx-l d, b-hp h c P, bhp k-, g d, g s, d d h g, p dh w, p d d d.
34. td s thgh ld w,16 Db 1963. 40 pg.
th g pp, ppd p-p nie 11-14-63, cpb h sG Pp F, 1963-1969. P h b p s d p- g, h p p d d s hg d
d pb h pb q s p, g p - h g .
35. th s m B v cb,17 Fb 1964. 141 pg.
th p h b , , d d, d h x p hg p. wh d b d h khhhbdhgh h h , p h h d , .., h h dd -
spb h h ud s d pbb q, h h dd ob h h d b gd h p h ud s dd q-, d h h gd h h dddg h h ob.
36. th s sg i ldD, 6 mh 1964. 49 pg.
i h x, h q d dd s g hgh, p-g, d g.... th pp d gh h hd g s gh h h u.s.hh h ussr hp hgh h g- d .
37. th Hgh m c h ussr,20 J 1964. 42 pg.
w x h h Hgh m c- d b h h b khhh dh h pp.
38. th m d h s Pb
h ussr, 5 nb 1964. 46 pg.th p h pp g h -p hp s dh 1953. th d, j p xph pb h gg h p pb.
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39. w P m sg:a cp s sg thg,7 J 1965. 34 pg.
th h h d h h s db h e-p h hd g h d-p h d - h e ep .
40. th n s c d hP-s i cPsu P, 1956-1966,21 J 1966. 113 pg.
th g pp...x h dp, hh , h h cP h s u (cPsu) h q- h h c p h d r . i x h p- dp...p hgh p- h p d jd d.
41. s s-e G r:1962-1967, 24 Fb 1967. 115 pg.
th e G h h h, pph dp b w G- h hd d h s u
d e ep h h,h h e G b -d b h d d h - p .
42. P d P cPsu Pb:ob 1964 spb 1967.31 ag 1967. 103 pg.
Bzh...d (1) g h u.s. p- w ep, (2) ggnato, (3) ghg h s pd f h w P, d (4) x-pdg cPsu f hgh h g
p w ep p.
43. th s i d h s ldhpsgg, 5 J 1968. 18 pg.
Bzh d shp h pd g h pp h d-gd p p-ph b pg hdx p.
43-a. ax: th s i d h sldhp sgg, 17 J 1968. 146 pg.
44. P h s Pb d hczh c, 28 ob 1968. 19 pg.
th p h fgp d h h s dhp bzd b kg d b Bzh.
45. i h usa: th kn apph a-whg,7 ob 1969. 44 pg.
a kg g h s- hgh h h k h h g h g b h. th .
46. ld Bzh: th m d H P,5 Db 1969. 43 pg.
a h ph khhh, - b b h su pp g. Bzh, h, d h b hdd h, p g g, b .
47. Bzh sgg D:ax ld Bzh: th m d H
P, 12 Db 1969. 44 pg.48. s P d h 1967 ab-i w,16 mh 1970. 71 pg.
i h pd b h sx-D w 1967,s p hd pp dab p p h d ab ,hb gg q hm d . a h d hab, s p hd b g pp d ab p. B d s p g d pp abd, dp h g hd
h mdd e d h pb h ab d. th p h h m d dp d pp ab hp s p gd/ w p h mdd e.
49. ad k d h s Ps, 15 mh 1971. 12 pg.
th pb k dgBzh h p P p h
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dpd d dg, , h hg dpd d d pp g h g dg gh.
50. P n-s: ax caesar XXXiX (ad k d h sP s), 1 J 1971. 91 pg.
51. th Pb d s D-mg,1 ap 1972. 96 pg.
th d x h p h P-b: h p, h p, d h pp x
g. th p hh g d- h h b g g-d , b hd-dg, b p.
POLO
1. m t-g d H m, i:r, 10 ap 1961. 32 pg.
ch c p dg hm h ch g db l d s, b h -z h db, d h h p
c d m hg.
2. m t-g d H m,ii: th s F, 29 J 1961. 25 pg.
ch c h h mt-g h bd h mx-lh h h h p h ppd dhp. th p m pp b d. wh mx hgd dhp p h p,l hd ppd ddg hp. m g pd l ,b h 1930 h bg dd h - h h dd bg. m gdd h hgh h -p.
3. m t-g d H m,iv: th t s,9 ob 1961. 34 pg.
wh e ep d 1948, g s p, bgd
j h p p-, m b work out the detailsand put into practice h mx-eg-lh bg h p d-g pd gd .
4. m t-g d H m, iii:cd s s,20 ob 1961. 25 pg.
nh s m dd hg h h d h d [ - ] b g.
5. th ch c ldhp,1958-1961, 28 nb 1961. 126 pg.
w h hgh h - h x () h dp h s-s dp d (b) h ch d p h pd1958-1961p b, , h d h s-s -hp d h g p h ch dhp.
6. th D m t-g,9 ap 1962. 32 pg.
th pp p h d h prob-abilityh m t-g h b dg , d h possibilityh h -g d dd hh d d h dh h.
7. th s-id Bd Dp, s 1:1950-59, 2 mh 1963. 54 pg.
th pp h p hh d h dp d h 20 ob 1962.
8. th s-id Bd Dp, s 2:1959-61, 19 ag 1963. 92 pg.
B 1959 h ch d -d h d g h n-h d p h pgdg h p h dc dg.
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9. th s-id Bd Dp, s 3:1961-62, 5 m 1964. 91 pg.
ch p d id 1961 p-d d p, ,h h nh d gg g h.
10. c ch D c:th rd 1964, 31 J 1964. 200 pg.
a q g h d p c ch hx hh m t-g d h h d h h h pd pph dp.
11. th s-v e la a h v w,9 J 1965. 37 pg.
B Fb-mh 1965, h p g h nh d h gzh m g hg h d b gh with only slight risks h b d h h b .
12. P Pb c ch,
19 J 1965. 35 pg.th dq m t-g pp hg h gd (g gg, h p, d h)hd b g pp ch -, dd h, d g gb dd d p d.
13. m c r: i ldhp,i sg, i i, d i c,18 Fb 1967. 218 pg.
() m h h h g, (b)h h b dg pd d h p pp, () hg h dhp h pd p pgdd b m d d pgg, (d) h h dpdh, g b dg, d() m g hd d g h h gz- h p hh h d .
14. m c r: og dDp, 6 ob 1967. 124 pg.
th b d h h hdhp 1959-1962 h g b chc p, g, d d b dd h m d-hp g h p h d gp d d pg.
15. th P.l.a. d h c r, 28 ob 1967. 198 pg.
th p d...d h md h in h P.l.a. (h , hpg d gz h pp),h m ofh P.l.a. dg h h, d hh hp b h .
16. t y ch c FgP, s 1: P td h u.s. dh Dp i tp, 54 pg.
chp: m cq t c-d P sgg, th i une, d Dp i tp.
17. t y ch cFg P: sh d sh a,4 ap 1968. 24 pg.
Bgg 1966, m t-g gd hdh g p d h dp dd z hp g -bd .
17-a. ax t y ch cFg P, s 2: sh d sha, 9 ap 1968. 184 pg.
18. m c r 1967: thsgg sz P, 24 m 1968. 49 pg.
m d, h pp g, h p b p d- , dd h pd dhh d h ag d hh c r ; h p, p h ph - b b.
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19. rd Gd d r rbogz c ch (a r-h ad), 28 m 1968. 71 pg.
a p h b d d hj rd Gd d r rbgp h p, g,d j , h pp h h gp, h h , d pd bhg (h pb) h g - h gz m 1968.
20. m rd Gd Dp: 1967,
21 J 1968. 37 pg.
th b hh ppd Pg -g p 1967 fd m d pj h pg bd d h dp.... Bdm p , h, h dp g d . th bg dp-, b gd, d xp m d bd, d h d hb h Pg g p m1958 bd hd b d p.
21. m c r iii. th Pg h P.l.a. d h sd mdm, J 1968. 83 pg.
th p d h J 1968.i d m b h d dg, b d p h hh m h P.l.a. h d g h d b pg g h p h h p ddpd, b g h b pp d pp, d b pg h p dg. th d hghghd
b h d md m, hh b h pp d d hpd h g pgg h P.l.a.
22. F h c c:m opp s 1949,19 spb 1968. 38 pg.
a h d m c r hdd, c ch d h d
b -g gg h hch c P. mg rdGd d h ...hig rp -x h - gg d d h m cr d dd p fd p d 20 d.
23. th r h rd Gd dr rb m c r,nb 1968. 192 pg.
i h pp h p db h
g h gp, h g h ,h h h pd g h , d h gz - hh dd hd h gh q x-P m pg.
24. th r h rd Gd dr rb m c r,Db 1968. 17 pg.
B h p d pbhd .
25. th c r d ed
c ch, 23 m 1969. 97 pg.
th dg h d, bd , h d b m d h - d h d n chm. th , h -, p pd h d.
26. th c r d h nhP cg, 1 ob 1969. 40 pg.
F h h d h nh P cg pd b q b h
c ch, h -g h ch c P b hd j dpp. whhd h P dhp, h P , h pd p, h pbhd d hcg g g d d.
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27. c ch: th P sapp ii. D d r,1965-1969, 28 nb 1969. 94 pg.
th h d d d h, d hg h p- pp c ch.
28. l P d h G H,21 J 1970. 31 pg.
th ig rp g h d l dp d h d hhp h h m. i dh l dd m, h h pb-b h h h G H,d h h p h - h h b hd b m.
29. th c r d h n P- s ch, 30 ob 1970. 29 pg.
th d h c r hx m t-g -dg h p dd p ch; d b p m p h h p g hd d b-
p pp. th d q h d h P bdg h bj h .
30. l P d h s P,Db 1970. 74 pg.
th d g l P h d b g h h d-gd h m t-g....th g h h d h l p-p gz gh, h p hdg p hd b dd gh....th pp d h l h
pg d h p p d h, bh d d h pg m p hx hh m h pd h.
31. th F m idg FgP, nb 1971. 11 pg.
th g d h h dgd d x (1) gg c P p g
h d ; (2) g bg g a, a,d l a; d (3) dg ch - pg p dd.
32. th i l Dp h ch c P,Db 1971. 37 pg.
th d d h h ilD, d g-zd , h b g d-p h pg ccP h gg cP bddh h d hd .
33. Pg-tp c:th Q Pb chs, Db 1971. 64 pg.
th d d h g n- b ppd dh dpd d-1971, b h Pgxp d d h gd h hp .
34. rh ad: mg ch mld, ag 1972. 29 pg.
ab 200 ch d hdppd gh 1971-72.... th hg h h d P d- d bg b l - p q. th h g p , bh gd b h bb h h b b pgd gd p ph h l gp.
35. P i h Pg l P,nb 1972. 65 pg.
th d d h h ppd
d bhd h - pg l P d , hb h ch p .
36. Pg spp ig sh a, ap 1973. 145 pg.
ch p d pp -g g g sha. Fh, h B d
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thd, h h gxpdd....ch pp g-...g b h h h b,m t-g, h x b-b-hd dg d p .
37. ch rg d P ld:th Pg h m, h r odP cd, J 1973. 126 pg.
th p h d pg m t-g d ch e- pg h gg p-p ch, h g d p
, d b h Pla.
ESAU
1. og h ch c Pg, 17 J 1959. 34 pg.
th pb h pd pdgh ch c dhp d d h pg h d d pg dpdpd ch p d....th - gd h b-pd pdd p dg d- ch d .
2. th c: cp dexp, spg 1958, 25 pg.
a J 1958, h h h ch pd - b d, b -g d h hg gz . th sp dhp ppd b b g- h p j p.
3. th s ad td c, 12 J 1959. 26 pg.
vd g h bgd sxp d h h ch -z pg -gdd b m d.
4. s P h t cP h ch c- Pg, 28 ag 1959. 34 pg.
th pp d s - dg h d , -pd b, db d ,h p h , h h s d, s - h h b, d h p.
5. th c: r d i ogz-, s 1958, 4 spb 1959. 19 pg.
t h p d h - h ch pp d h dd d h p h gz- ph h .
6. id s a chP h c, spg-s 1958,16 ob 1959. 43 pg.
th d gg h h s p hd d h h d xp h h g hp b h p.
7. th ch c ip eG, 15 ap 1960. 41 pg.
th ch p d g dp
x p h m gd d p g h s d h ubh pp p h ch g h r h hp x-g g g khhh p.
8. th c, th G lp Fd,d s-s r (ag-Db1958), 15 J 1960. 149 pg.
th pp ...h d-d dp pg...h p -d d h ; h pgg...d h f p d -
b ch d h s u.
9. m t-g sg, 1926-1957(th Bgd h s-s Dp 1957-1960), 8 ag 1960. 56 pg.
a hg m c- g dg xp h d ch, h F e, dhg h s u.
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10. th s-s Dp wd csg (a 1957-a 1959),23 spb 1960. 114 pg.
th -gh p c ph gg h ,h m bgg dp -t. i 1960, m p p d t -p pd ppb h , d khhh d m -g t d g p.
11. th s-s Dp wd csg (i Dp a 1959 s 1960), 23 J 1961. 76 pg.
th m pzg h cd g khhh d khhhg dd J 1960 dgh ch e G g- dg. m d h e Gh h dgd h s p d- d B d h ch d g d g g g h ud n d -
h ud s hd t.
12. th s-s Dp (J 1960 nb 1960), 20 Fb 1961. 63 pg.
a h h pp pd h hxd b d, d p x , h s p 21 J h ch p, h chp 10 spb p, d h s- p 5 nb... p h 10spb . th p -d h x s-s dp d g ...d...h d h d-
p hh hd b ddd pd.
13. th s-s Dp (th 6 DbD, d s d ch P i), 17 mh 1961. 51 pg.
B gd h b h hh h b dgdd d b h d c -, d h s p h p
h , h h d, xp d-g h p, pd h ch p d h pdg g h .
14. s-s cp nh k,5 ap 1961. 20 pg.
vzd b g hgh- h, nh k pp g b h p df b p ghb....nh k h d p g Ppg d p
d pph h d - c d p-ph c g.
15. th id c P d s-s Dp, 7 Fb 1962. 185 pg.
B J 1962 h c P id(cPi) hd hd p hh p h h p h g hd b pb. th h s-sf h 22d cPsu cg hd gd d h h i-d p, d ghd hh hd b g d p h cPi.
16. th n sg h s-s Dp(ob 1961-J 1962),26 Fb 1962. 109 pg.
th pp d h g d bkhhh h 22d cPsucg ob 1961, x h p h ch b khhh, d p h pb s-s b h x .
17. nh v d s-s r,4 mh 1962. 42 pg.
a j b h s-s dp h gd d bh m d Ppg...h nh v p dhp h p h h h d d h dpg fb h s u d c ch.
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18. sip h s-sDp us P, 29 mh 1962. 18 pg.
s d hd dg sp- sd Gp g hd 1 d 21 Fb- d 8 mh 1962. th sp sd Gp gzd b h c Fg r- d pd g d-g bj- xp.
19. s-ab r, 1940-1960,22 J 1962. 79 pg.
th g pp, g h s-ab h bh hab c p 1940 hgh h h ab d h -g h 81 c p m nb 1960. th pp x h gd h s-ab d dh hp h s-s .
20. th s s-s r h ny, 7 J 1963. 27 pg.
w h pp b h, , p b b h s- d ch p pbb;
h g h b.
21. th nh v P d h n s- sh v, 10 J 1963. 37 pg.
a p hh p db - u.s. p sh v p hnh v g. th p d h h p b h nhv c p pb sh v d h p- h p h s-s dp.
22. th s-s sgg cb d h
l a c m,1 nb 1963. 172 pg.
rfg dp hgh h ag 1963, h pp dhf h p h s d ch- c p f hc d h cb c p, hh appdx d d hp h l a.
23. th Jp c P: 1955-1963, 20 mh 1964. 115 pg.
o h dz c p hhb d h ch p hs-s dp, h Jp cp p p . i h h p pg j d-pd ; h p h hb -; d, dp g, h p d h dp.
24. th s-s cf h F:
spb 1962-Db 1963,12 J 1964. 114 pg.
th ch, h d g p gz, d h - h s-d gz-. i , h, h h g p, d h xpd.
25. P sh d h n od sh a, 169 pg.
th pp d p h
p h c-- h, sh cbd--h h ph h h c h.
26. th shd s ah hm, 8 Fb 1965. 94 pg.
() dp h s-shp ob 1964 (h khh-h ) hgh J 1965, d hs p p h -g h c p, d (b) p- h pp h g d s-s g b h.
27. th 1965 s-s-v co s m ad nh v,20 Db 1965. 59 pg.
ed [d] d h -g dp h g p dgb h s u d ch hq d h h dp g dd h bd-dd s qp- d h nh v.
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28. Zzb: th Hdd D r,21 Fb 1966. 170 pg.
th ... x g .
29. th P H, Pg, d m h i v ng: 1962-1966,31 ob 1966. 83 pg.
H p in principle...h d Pg h H ch mh d h gh, g h gh-g, g g. th ch h pdH p g...d hs, h h hd, h ddd g h H .
30. a c ep ng P t,nb 1966. 55 pg.
th p... h h gh- db h ch, k, d v c- h p f,, h ch , h k , dh idh g h Fh. i h hh h pd h a c-
d bg g d h d dg g h - x p h w.
31. th Dg Jpc r h Pg,28 Db 1966. 77 pg.
r h j dp h Jpc P (JcP)...dg hh hJcP h b d b h h ch c P (ccP). i d, h dg hd JcP-ccP b
pg d m t-g dg h g c p d h p jg g hp h h p b h.
32. th s-s Dp wh h c- m l a,15 J 1967. 187 pg.
F h d gh ch- c l a d-1963 d m , d h p h cb c Pdp hh c d h xp dg- f h d c pb h h r d ch.
33. th s-s sgg h wdc m s khhhF (P 1), spb 1967. 197 pg.
P i db h h h ph
cPsu p h x h khh-h d g pp h h ph h nhvhh d d h ch- d hg p, p d gg g h ud s.
34. th s-s sgg h wdc m s khhhF (P 2), spb 1967. 161 pg.
P ii h gg cPsu 1965d 1966 zg h pp h ch b dg pp nh v g hud s d b pzg m t-g p d m g dd h d b h p.
35. th s-s sgg h wdc m s khhhF (P 3), spb 1967. 206 pg.
P iii d h f bgg hm d h 23d cPsu cg h pg 1966 d h g h gg pg h g
, db h bq pd d s-s d h p d s m dg ch g , d dh pp h p d hc , d h ud s,d d h ch c g.
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36. th ad nh vld td Fghg d ngg,25 mh 1968. 64 pg.
th pp p h h h dh dpd, h h g hh d h ppd g , d g-g h hh dg h d php b p.
37. th s-s Dp ad nh v- (1965-1968), 30 spb 1968. 33 pg.
r d bg p d h hpd d hggg gh h pp. i h h j d h h d hgd, d h p, d-p, d ch b dh h bd h d .
37-a. ax: th s-s Dp ad nh v (1965-1968),25 nb 1968. 122 pg.
38. k i-sg n m ad,26 nb 1968. 59 pg.
Dg h p , h h bgh p- h b g hh h g d d p- d sh k d h ud s....th b k g-, - , d -, p d pbg d sh k.
39. id1965: th cp th Bd,Db 1968. 356 pg.
e, pg h a d-hp, hh dd bg b hg h p h b. i h
, h 30 sp-b m pg, h h p.
40. th sgg h Ph ldhpd h r h app,5 spb 1969. 64 pg.
ig pg d dg h 1968 phzd -s d
p gg h h f. ahgh bh - p, h d hh p g f dpd d h h q- h G bh, d b h czh, d h d b g p d g .
41. th cd chh d chg l a, 10 spb 1969. 60 pg.
th d z h hg, h
g g hp h hchh d b chh d -chhgp, d h p la d p .
42. czh: th Pb sc, 16 J 1970. 66 pg.
az h h s u p czh d h h - d dg 1968 d 1969.... m- pd p p bgg Pgg h, b h p h m ppd p.
43. th e s P s-sBd Dp, 28 ap 1970. 101 pg.
[ch] p hg d pg s p d q ,dgd b dd h su... hg .... ad pb bPg p g d p, hgh h p hh d g- s d- j. a h , h, mhd h j db.
44. th P H: ubh egs, 29 J 1970. 60 pg.
th d ubh g p p,p d, d d d-g h h h GDr hd- p-h d bgg h g. ad ,h ubh h b
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h p hd b pg h d h d dg-d p h.
45. yg: th o s,20 nb 1970. 72 pg.
th d p hh h dzd p h d h yg x qd c . whh h d y-g db, d h p-tb b .
46. Fdm s, Db 1970. 55 pg.
e g g h dhh b, , p d d , b h ddgp p h d h p dp mdd e p.
46-a. th Fd (ax esau Xlvii:Fdm s),J 1971. 107 pg.
th pp p d p-g, p h dp h d gz.[reDaction] th pg q gd p p h bj h h -g h d gp, h dp, d h dg d .
47. th Gh h s c h mdd e, J 1971. 182 pg.
th d p p h hh h ussr dg mdd
e bd. eh ddd d d hgh h pg. Hh p h h s d hp Bzh b d p. ths p bp hh, , b -d. th, , h ussr dgh p, d h , .
48. s thg b h Dg s-u.s. rpph, Fb 1971. 75 pg.
th d p p h g -p ch d us d s hgh d , h g hhh h s h ch h, dh h m hd pdd h 1969 f h Pgdd pd d us phh hghd gh salt.
49. th Ph Q: e G,J 1971. 65 pg.
th d x bg xd pPd d Ph-e G b hg-g s , w ep xp, Bd op, d, p, e G.th d d h h -p r d G - d Pdd d Ph-e G .
50. Pg d h B c:th P d P ig,J 1971. 140 pg.
th d d h Pgp d c - h b gdd hgh b p- gd ch .
51. c d cbd,Fb 1972. 130 pg.
o h p -d--h dd h H-dd h b x p- d h h g bppd d. i p, h g g b h kh nh v...
h g h c cbd p-b b hh bd.... th d dh H... gg h kh c (kc)P d ...d hh kc p- pp, bd b hp h v c a, p h h Ph Ph g.
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52. c d cbd,m 1972. 106 pg.
Pp h b .
53. Fdz a: H exp- wh m, ag 1972. 130 pg.
th F h g d hdpd, b d dd, h- fd b h ussr px gh, pdd pd dm, d h x s -pb p Fd d .
54. s exp eps c, ob 1972. 40 pg.
th d hghgh p s hg. o h h h cscebh p gz hhgh hh h ussr d b d d w ep , d p.... th h... h hs g h - csce...h g s d e ep gg bh c hdx d .
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Intelligence Agency or any other US Government entity, past or present. Nothing
in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government
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ISBN 978-0-16-090958-0
7/31/2019 Cold War Era Hard Target Analysis of Soviet and Chinese Policy and Decision Making, 1953-1973
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