Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"

Motivation• Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO2eq

– Strongly rising bioenergy demand– Biospheric carbon management: soil carbon, REDD, afforestation– Reduction of methane/nitrous oxide emissions from ag. production

Science integration• Linking Integrated Assessment models, global agricultural models and

farm household models • Top-down: Spatially-explicit land use change scenarios; global

boundary conditions for household studies• Bottom-up: Improvement of global models (e.g. role of mixed systems)• Global models: IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, (PBL/IMAGE, …)• Regional cases: Indonesia, Brazil, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, India

Global modelling: Uncertainty/Sensitivity analysis (Ensembles) • Assumptions about food/energy demand, land availability, land use

change, technological change

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (2) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"

Household modelling• Introduce bioenergy production and other mitigation options to

household models• Production decisions under new prices/cost structures• Food security beyond calories; livelihoods• Local energy security/availability (traditional biomass)

Challenges• Linking annual to decadal time scales

Outcome• Chances and risks of climate mitigation on food security• Livelihood impacts at household level• Options for improving governance / institutions (e.g. land tenure,

compensation payments)• Accounting of carbon, water use, emissions• Investment needs in agricultural R&D

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (3) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"

CCAFS/ESSP science value• CCAFS: link to IAM, energy sector scenarios, land use change,

emission accounting• ESSP: "grounding" of global models with local processes/constraints• Linking physiology, technology, economics, governance

Development value• Chances for agriculture/food security: new markets, income,

diversification, synergies between adaptation and mitigation• Risks for agriculture/food security: competition for land, water,

livestock feed

Structural value for Ag. science in CCAFS• Models as structuring elements for distributed studies• Linking and using distributed data

CC science value• More realistic assessment of mitigation options• Synergies/trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (4) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"

Link to stakeholders• Policy-making: energy/climate policy, ag. policy, spatial planning• Strategic research planning/investment• Ag. Extension

Partners:• CCAFS: IFPRI, ILRI, ICRAF, CIFOR, others?• ESSP: PIK, IIASA, PBL, others?

Funding sources:• GIZ/BEAF call, March 2012• EU FP7?• Foundations?