COLORADO MOUNTAIN COLLEGE ECONOMIC OVERVIEW PROGRAM …coloradomtn.edu › ... › Gap_Analysis_CMC_final_2015.pdf · will be referred to as “the CMC Economic Region”. CMC has

PREPARED BY EMSI JULY 2015

COLORADO MOUNTAIN COLLEGE

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW &

PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS

CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 Overview of Regional Economy

1 Program Gap Analysis

3 INTRODUCTION

4 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY

5 Jobs by Industry

7 Jobs by Occupation

8 Commuting Patterns

9 Unemployment

12 Educational Attainment

16 CHAPTER 2: PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS

16 Interpreting Gap/Surplus Analysis Results

17 PostsecondaryCertificateLevelGapAnalysis

18 Associate’s Level Gap Analysis

20 Transfer Track (Liberal Arts) Students

20 Potential New Programs

20 Conclusion

23 APPENDIX 1: ABOUT EMSI DATA

24 APPENDIX 2: PROGRAM-TO-OCCUPATION MAPPING

28 APPENDIX 3: PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

28 Supply and Demand Model

28 Occupation Demand

30 Education Output

31 APPENDIX 4: ALTERNATIVE GAP ANALYSIS CALCULATIONS

31 Highlights of Alternative Gap Analysis

32 Alternative Gap Analysis Tables

34 APPENDIX 5: DETAILED EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS | 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Colorado Mountain College (CMC) has 11 campus locations

and serves 12,000 square miles in north-central Colorado.

This report outlines the economy of a 10-county economic

region (Chaffee, Eagle, Garfield, Grand, Jackson, Lake, Mesa,

Pitkin, Routt, and Summit Counties) and provides a “gap”

analysis to determine how well the College’s program offer-

ings are satisfying regional workforce demand. The report

also offers recommendations for new program develop-

ment. The following are some of the key findings of the

analysis:

OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL ECONOMY

• The economy of the region served by CMC (“the CMC

Economic Region”) is primarily driven by the Accom-

modation & Food Services, Government, and Retail

Trade industries. The Accommodation & Food Services

and Government sectors added new jobs between 2009

and 2014, and all three are projected to continue to

grow through 2024. Several industries faced declines

between 2009 and 2014, but only the Information and

Utilities sectors are projected to continue losing jobs

over the next decade. Overall the regional job growth

is expected to be 17% over the next decade.

• Some high-skill occupational categories are projected

to see dependable job growth over the next ten years,

including computer & mathematical occupations (32%

job growth) and healthcare practitioners and technical

occupations (29% job growth).

• Between 2014 and 2024, the highest number of average

annual job openings for workers with postsecondary

certificates and above are projected to occur within

office & administrative support occupations, sales &

related occupations, and food preparation & serving

related occupations.

• Around 22% of residents in the area commute outside

the CMC Economic Region for work, and roughly 23%

of the CMC Economic Region workers reside outside

the area, indicating that there are some economic

links between the CMC Economic Region and the sur-

rounding communities for both in-commuters and

out-commuters.

• The educational composition of the adult population

in the CMC Economic Region (people age 24 and older)

has seen a small shift in recent years. Between 2009

and 2014, the proportion of adults with some college

increased by 1.3 percentage points, while the propor-

tions with all other levels of educational attainment

have decreased slightly.

PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS

• Between both levels of postsecondary certificate and

associate’s degree, there are a total of nine programs

associated with significant workforce gaps.

• At the certificate level, five programs have significant

workforce gaps. Accounting Technology/Technician &

Bookkeeping has the largest gap of 77, and median

hourly wages of $16.19. Culinary Arts/Chef Training

(gap of 55; median hourly wage $13.38) and Medical

Office Assistant/Specialist (gap of 18; median hourly

wage $16.22) are the second and third largest gaps.

All of the certificate level gaps have median hourly

wages over $13.

• Four associate’s degree programs register a gap:

Accounting Technology/Technician & Bookkeeping (gap

of 85), Culinary Arts/Chef Training (gap of 51), Medical

Office Assistant/Specialist (gap of 15), and Fire Science/

Fire-Fighting (gap of 12).

• Only eight programs are associated with significant

surpluses between both the postsecondary certificate

(eight surpluses) and associate’s degree programs (one

surplus).

• The top three surpluses at the certificate level are Emer-

gency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic)

2 | COLORADO MOUNTAIN COLLEGE

(surplus of 208), Nursing Assistant/Aide & Patient Care

Assistant/Aide (surplus of 70), and Criminal Justice/

Police Science (surplus of 42).

• At the associate’s degree level, the only surplus is Tour-

ism & Travel Services Management (surplus of 16).

Some of the completers are likely getting jobs outside

the CMC Economic Region.

• There are 29 postsecondary certificate level areas of

opportunity identified. Skilled trades and blue collar

occupations like general maintenance & repair workers,

carpenters, and electricians appear to be undersupplied

in the CMC Economic Region. Tellers and secretaries

& administrative assistants, except legal, medical, &

executive are also undersupplied.

• The other six areas of opportunity are at the associate’s

degree level. Dental hygienists have the largest gap and

pay the highest median hourly wages of $39.30.


INTRODUCTION

Colleges face many challenges in their efforts to identify

the training needs of their economic regions. They must

account for regional economic trends and the changing

quality of the workforce. Furthermore, as technology pro-

gresses, colleges need to address the increasingly complex

and specialized skills required by employers. In light of

these dynamics, an understanding of the regional economy

and the demand for skilled labor is vital to the planning

efforts of colleges seeking to adapt their program offerings

to the requirements of an ever-changing workforce.

To gain better insight into economic conditions and

workforce trends, Colorado Mountain College (CMC) part-

nered with Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI) to

conduct an economic overview of the College’s Economic

Region and a workforce “gap” analysis of the College’s pro-

gram offerings. Gap analysis is a technique used to assess

the supply and demand of skilled workers and identify the

educational programs that need to be adapted in order to

fill any existing or future gaps. The analysis weighs the

educational output of CMC and other regional institu-

tions against the number of job openings related to the

institutions’ program offerings to determine whether an

oversupply or an undersupply of skilled workers exists. The

goal of the analysis is to provide CMC with relevant data

and information that it can use when solving problems

and making decisions about current and future program

development.

The regional backdrop used in this report is defined

by Chaffee, Eagle, Garfield, Grand, Jackson, Lake, Mesa,

Pitkin, Routt, and Summit Counties. This regional backdrop

will be referred to as “the CMC Economic Region”. CMC

has locations in 11 campus locations in mountain towns

throughout north-central Colorado.1 See Figure 1.1 for a

map of the region.

The report is broken into two chapters. Chapter 1 pro-

vides an overview of employment in the CMC Economic

Region economy with high-level information about current

and projected job trends, resident commuting patterns, and

unemployment. Chapter 1 also provides further informa-

tion specifically related to the educational characteris-

tics of the population by gender and ethnicity. Chapter 2

summarizes the results of the program gap analysis and

provides recommendations for possible future program

needs. After a brief conclusion, detailed information and

data are provided in the appendices.

1 The industry and occupation data presented in this report reflect the

number of jobs by place of work, not by place of residence. However, the

report does assess the commuting patterns of residents to determine

where they live and work both within and outside of the region.


FIGURE 1.2: JOBS AND JOB CHANGE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN CMC ECONOMIC REGION, 2014 TO 2024

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY

This chapter provides a high-level overview of employ-

ment and demographics in the economy of the CMC Eco-

nomic Region, defined by Chaffee, Eagle, Garfield, Grand,

Jackson, Lake, Mesa, Pitkin, Routt, and Summit Counties

(see Figure 1.1). The goal of the chapter is to provide data

on the economic and workforce employment trends that

either already exist or are developing in the region. Such

information is crucial in building awareness of the region’s

labor force – both now and in the future – and identifying

priority areas where educators can focus their attention.

The chapter examines employment and demographics in

the CMC Economic Region according to the following five

indicators: jobs by industry, jobs by occupation, commut-

ing patterns, unemployment, and educational attainment. 6+18+2+52+13+14+67+14+6+14+22+26+1+30+6+54+43+99+27+850+11+0+4+1+3+8+3+0+2+2+5+1+7+2+17+6+13+3+12

0+0+0+0+0+0+0+0+1Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

Utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Transportation and Warehousing

Information

Finance and Insurance

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Professional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Admin. & Support and Waste Mgmt. & Remediation Services

Educational Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Accommodation and Food Services

Other Services (except Public Administration)

Government

2014 Jobs 2014–2024 ChangeNumber of jobs

–5,000 0 35,00010,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,0005,000

Source: EMSI Complete Data 2014.4

FIGURE 1.1: MAP OF CMC ECONOMIC REGION


6+18+2+52+13+14+67+14+6+14+22+26+1+30+6+54+43+99+27+850+11+0+4+1+3+8+3+0+2+2+5+1+7+2+17+6+13+3+12

JOBS BY INDUSTRY

Evaluating current and future employment by industry

provides information on the economic diversification of a

given region. Industries consist of groups of companies that

are primarily engaged in producing the same product or

service. The North American Industry Classification System

(NAICS) is the structure used by the U.S. Census Bureau

to classify establishments into industries based on their

production process (although the final product or service

is usually similar for the firms in a given industry). NAICS

applies a six-digit hierarchical coding system to organize

more than 1,100 detailed industries into twenty larger

industry sectors. The breakdown of current and future

employment by major industry sector in the CMC Economic

Region appears in Table 1.1 and Figure 1.2.

As shown, the three largest industry sectors in the CMC

Economic Region are Accommodation & Food Services,

Government, and Retail Trade. Together these sectors made

up 84,985 jobs or approximately 42% of total regional

employment in 2014. Accommodation & Food Services and

Government added new jobs between 2009 and 2014, but

all three sectors are projected to grow through 2024. Other

industry sectors with notable projected growth are Health

Care & Social Assistance (+5,737 jobs); Mining, Quarrying,

& Oil & Gas Extraction (+3,859 jobs), and Administrative

& Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services

(+2,316 jobs). Only the Information and Utilities industry

sectors are expected to contract between 2014 and 2024

(-295 and -15 jobs, respectively).

Table 1.2 shows the employment concentration of the

industry sectors in the CMC Economic Region, measured

in terms of location quotients (LQs). LQs are used to assess

national competitiveness by comparing the concentration

TABLE 1.1: CURRENT AND PROJECTED JOBS AND JOB CHANGE BY INDUSTRY SECTOR, 2014 TO 2024

NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION 2014 JOBS 2024 JOBS CHANGE % CHANGE

11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 2,004 2,016 12 1%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 6,230 10,089 3,859 62%

22 Utilities 768 753 (15) (2%)

23 Construction 17,593 18,967 1,374 8%

31 Manufacturing 4,523 4,941 418 9%

42 Wholesale Trade 4,659 5,644 985 21%

44 Retail Trade 22,637 25,329 2,692 12%

48 Transportation and Warehousing 4,929 6,081 1,152 23%

51 Information 1,878 1,583 (295) (16%)

52 Finance and Insurance 4,621 5,437 816 18%

53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 7,314 8,069 755 10%

54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 8,861 10,510 1,649 19%

55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 498 688 190 38%

56Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Reme-diation Services

10,268 12,584 2,316 23%

61 Educational Services 2,004 2,768 764 38%

62 Health Care and Social Assistance 18,473 24,210 5,737 31%

71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 14,580 16,753 2,173 15%

72 Accommodation and Food Services 33,522 37,832 4,310 13%

81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 9,132 10,130 998 11%

90 Government 28,826 32,811 3,985 14%

Total 203,320 237,194 33,875 17%



of employment in a given industry against the concentra-

tion of employment for that same industry across the

nation. An LQ equal to 1 means that the percentage of total

employment comprised by an industry in the region exactly

matches the percentage of total employment comprised by

that industry in the nation. An LQ greater than 1 means

that the industry comprises a greater proportion of total

employment in the region than it does in the nation.

High LQs (usually anything greater than 1.2) are an

indication that the region has a comparative advantage

or specialization in certain industries relative to the rest

of the nation, or potentially to other competing regions.

When evaluated jointly with job counts and expected job

growth, high LQs give a sense of the industry sectors that

have the greatest potential for workforce investment and

where regional economic development professionals are

likely to be focusing their efforts. This information is of

particular importance to educators seeking to engage in

larger conversations with other organizations about align-

ing program offerings with workforce needs.

The following three industry sectors have the highest

location quotients in the CMC Economic Region: Mining,

Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction (5.35); Arts, Entertain-

ment, & Recreation (4.36); and Real Estate & Rental &

Leasing (2.19). All three of these industry sectors as well

as Accommodation & Food Services and Construction are

considered to have a comparative advantage. The relative

concentrations are expected to undergo some changes

over the next decade, yet the same industry sectors are

expected to be above the 1.2 cutoff.2

2 Note that because LQs represent regional employment relative to

national employment, a decreasing LQ does not necessarily mean

decreasing employment, and likewise an increasing LQ does not neces-

sarily mean increasing employment.

TABLE 1.2: EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN CMC ECONOMIC REGION, 2014 AND

2024

NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION

2014 LOCATION QUOTIENT

2024 LOCATION QUOTIENT

11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 0.81 0.79

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 5.35 6.85

22 Utilities 1.05 0.98

23 Construction 1.68 1.54

31 Manufacturing 0.28 0.28

42 Wholesale Trade 0.58 0.61

44 Retail Trade 1.07 1.05

48 Transportation and Warehousing 0.74 0.79

51 Information 0.49 0.39

52 Finance and Insurance 0.56 0.58

53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2.19 2.17

54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 0.69 0.65

55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 0.18 0.21

56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 0.81 0.80

61 Educational Services 0.39 0.43

62 Health Care and Social Assistance 0.73 0.75

71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 4.36 4.23

72 Accommodation and Food Services 1.99 1.91

81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 0.94 0.90

90 Government 0.90 0.93



JOBS BY OCCUPATION

Researchers often refer to industry data to get a sense of

regional economic trends, but in order to better understand

the quality of the jobs contained within that region, some

knowledge of occupations is needed. This is because the

earning levels and education requirements of workers

bear more of a relationship to their occupation than to the

industry in which they work. For example, the Manufactur-

ing industry – while employing a number of assemblers

and machine operators – also employs people in manage-

ment occupations and in professional occupations such

as engineering. All of these occupations have different pay

scales and require varying levels of education and training.

Federal agencies use the Standard Occupational Classi-

fication (SOC) system to classify workers into occupational

categories based on work performed. The 2010 SOC system

contains more than 800 detailed occupations organized

according to a five-digit hierarchical coding structure.

Detailed occupations with similar job duties are further

combined to form 23 major groups. Table 1.3 shows the

breakdown of employment in the CMC Economic Region

by major group, with information on current and projected

jobs, job change, average annual openings, and wage rates.

Office & administrative support occupations comprise

the largest occupation group in the CMC Economic Region

at 26,498 jobs, followed by food preparation & serving

related occupations at 25,468 jobs. Neither of these occu-

pation groups ranks among the highest paid, however.

Healthcare practitioners & technical occupations have

median earnings of $36.92 an hour, the highest on the

regional pay scale. Legal occupations – while one of the

smallest occupation groups – have median earnings of

$35.73 an hour, second highest on the regional pay scale.

TABLE 1.3: CURRENT AND PROJECTED JOBS, JOB CHANGE, AND MEDIAN HOURLY EARNINGS BY MAJOR

OCCUPATION GROUP IN CMC ECONOMIC REGION, 2014 TO 2024

SOC CODE DESCRIPTION

2014 JOBS 2024 JOBS CHANGE % CHANGE

MEDIAN HOURLY

EARNINGS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

OPENINGS

11-0000 Management 9,372 10,478 1,106 12% $34.23 291

13-0000 Business and Financial Operations 7,974 9,407 1,433 18% $27.36 296

15-0000 Computer and Mathematical 1,893 2,499 606 32% $32.47 90

17-0000 Architecture and Engineering 2,494 2,747 253 10% $31.93 86

19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science 1,677 1,967 290 17% $28.63 72

21-0000 Community and Social Service 2,608 3,036 428 16% $19.85 100

23-0000 Legal 1,444 1,648 204 14% $35.73 44

25-0000 Education, Training, and Library 9,199 11,178 1,979 22% $20.68 385

27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 5,815 6,480 665 11% $14.90 198

29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 9,062 11,718 2,656 29% $36.92 450

31-0000 Healthcare Support 3,856 5,029 1,173 30% $14.12 123

33-0000 Protective Service 4,815 5,583 768 16% $20.36 170

35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related 25,468 29,889 4,421 17% $10.95 597

37-0000 Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 13,343 14,907 1,564 12% $12.85 123

39-0000 Personal Care and Service 9,243 10,579 1,336 14% $11.71 236

41-0000 Sales and Related 23,994 26,674 2,680 11% $15.67 669

43-0000 Office and Administrative Support 26,498 30,863 4,365 16% $16.47 682

45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 1,167 1,320 153 13% $13.68 10

47-0000 Construction and Extraction 18,088 20,821 2,733 15% $19.92 260

49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 9,249 10,883 1,634 18% $21.00 181

51-0000 Production 5,444 6,423 979 18% $16.38 84

53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving 9,628 12,031 2,403 25% $17.67 182



Several high skill occupations are expected to experience

high growth in the next 10 years, such as computer &

mathematical occupations (32%) and healthcare practi-

tioners & technical occupations (29%).

Figure 1.3 provides a look at the average annual job

openings for workers with some college or above by occu-

pation group. Job openings refer to new jobs due to growth

plus replacement jobs due to worker turnover. Between

2014 and 2024, the occupations with the highest number

of average annual job openings for workers with some

college or above occurs in office & administrative sup-

port occupations, sales & related occupations, and food

preparation & serving related occupations.

COMMUTING PATTERNS

The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)

program3 at the U.S. Census Bureau provides information

on the residential and employment locations of workers.

“Jobs by place of work” refers to where residents of the

region commute to work, and “Jobs by place of residence”

refers to where workers in the region live. Data for the

CMC Economic Region appears in Tables 1.4 and 1.5, with

the same information displayed in Figures 1.4 and 1.5.

3 LEHD is an innovative program that uses modern statistical and com-

puting techniques to combine federal and state administrative data

on employers and employees with core Census Bureau censuses and

surveys while protecting the confidentiality of people and firms that

provide the data.

FIGURE 1.3: AVERAGE ANNUAL OPENINGS BETWEEN 2014 AND 2024 FOR WORKERS WITH SOME

COLLEGE AND ABOVE BY OCCUPATION GROUP IN THE CMC ECONOMIC REGION

Management Business and Financial Operations

Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering

Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service

Legal Education, Training, and Library

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

Healthcare Support Protective Service

Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Personal Care and Service Sales and Related

OfficeandAdministrativeSupportFarming, Fishing, and Forestry

Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Production Transportation and Material Moving

42+42+13+12+10+14+6+55+28+64+18+24+85+18+34+96+97+1+37+26+12+260 700400 500 600100 200 300


TABLE 1.4: JOBS BY PLACE OF WORK

COUNTY JOBSCOMMUTE

SHARE

Mesa County 46,510 30.9%

Eagle County 18,435 12.2%

Garfield County 16,154 10.7%

Pitkin County 11,030 7.3%

Summit County 9,007 6.0%

Routt County 8,386 5.6%

Denver County 6,056 4.0%

Jefferson County 3,985 2.6%

Chaffee County 3,837 2.5%

Grand County 3,160 2.1%

All Other Locations 24,089 16.0%

Source: Census LEHD

FIGURE 1.4: JOBS BY PLACE OF WORK

46,510 Jobs

9,007 Jobs

3,837 Jobs

18,435 Jobs

8,386 Jobs

3,160 Jobs

16,154 Jobs

6,056 Jobs

11,030 Jobs

3,985 Jobs


42+42+13+12+10+14+6+55+28+64+18+24+85+18+34+96+97+1+37+26+12+26

FIGURE 1.5: JOBS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE

Approximately 21.7% of residents commute outside the

CMC Economic Region for work, indicating that there are

strong economic links between the Economic Region and

surrounding communities. The largest portion of residents

work in Mesa County (30.9%), and a significant portion

of residents work in Eagle County (12.2%). Table 1.4 and

Figure 1.4 display the top ten employment counties for

CMC Economic Region residents.

Table 1.5 and Figure 1.5 display the top ten coun-

ties by place of residency. Of the people who work in

the CMC Economic Region, 77.4% also live in the region.

Mesa County houses nearly a third of the region’s workers

(31.2%). Garfield County, where four CMC campuses are

located, houses 11.7% of the workers in the CMC Economic

Region. Jefferson County supplies the most commuters

from outside the area at 1.9%.

Figure 1.6 presents the inflow and outflow of jobs to

and from the CMC Economic Region. There are 152,534 jobs

in the region with 118,033 of these jobs filled by residents

and 34,501 jobs going to people living outside the region.

Additionally, 32,616 residents commute outside the region

for work. The figure clearly illustrates the fact that slightly

more workers in-commute than out-commute.

UNEMPLOYMENT

Data on unemployment give researchers an idea of where

skills mismatches may exist in the region. Unemployment

data can also provide important context when identifying

the training programs that are best suited to transitioning

unemployed workers into in-demand occupations.

Table 1.6 and Figure 1.7 on the next page present the

number of people unemployed by industry sector in the

CMC Economic Region. Data reflect November 2014 and

follow the same methodology used by the federal statistical

agencies to determine the number of workers who are not

currently employed in any industry. The unemployment

rate is not provided because it is difficult to accurately

determine the size of the labor force in a given industry

on a monthly basis. Rather than the unemployment rate,

the percent of all unemployed for the region and for the

nation are provided to display which industry sectors have

the highest concentration of unemployed workers.

As shown in Table 1.6, the category with the high-

est number of unemployed is in Accommodation & Food

Services. The second highest number of unemployed is in

TABLE 1.5: JOBS BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE

COUNTY COUNTCOMMUTE

SHARE

Mesa County 47,546 31.2%

Eagle County 19,298 12.7%

Garfield County 17,907 11.7%

Routt County 8,704 5.7%

Summit County 7,729 5.1%

Pitkin County 6,768 4.4%

Chaffee County 4,005 2.6%

Grand County 3,380 2.2%

Jefferson County 2,932 1.9%

Denver County 2,656 1.7%

All Other Locations 31,609 20.7%

Source: Census LEHD

47,546 Jobs

7,729 Jobs

2,932 Jobs

2,656 Jobs

19,298 Jobs

6,768 Jobs

17,907 Jobs

4,005 Jobs

8,704 Jobs

3,380 Jobs

FIGURE 1.6: IN-FLOW/OUT-FLOW JOB COUNT

34,501 – Employed in the Service Region but Living Outside

32,616 – Living in the Service Region but Employed Outside

118,033 – Living and Employed in the Service Region


TABLE 1.6: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN CMC ECONOMIC REGION

NAICS CODE DESCRIPTION

NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED

% OF UNEMPLOYED

NATIONAL % OF UNEMPLOYED

11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 24 0% 1%

21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 169 2% 0%

22 Utilities 24 0% 0%

23 Construction 470 6% 6%

31 Manufacturing 174 2% 9%

42 Wholesale Trade 106 1% 2%

44 Retail Trade 909 12% 12%

48 Transportation and Warehousing 193 2% 3%

51 Information 50 1% 2%

52 Finance and Insurance 162 2% 3%

53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 283 4% 1%

54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 242 3% 4%

55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 6 0% 0%

56Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Reme-diation Services

378 5% 7%

61 Educational Services (Private) 136 2% 3%

62 Health Care and Social Assistance 505 7% 8%

71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 543 7% 2%

72 Accommodation and Food Services 1,323 17% 9%

81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 258 3% 4%

90 Government 597 8% 8%

99 No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified 1,208 16% 16%

Source: EMSI Total Unemployment (11/2014)

FIGURE 1.7: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY INDUSTRY SECTOR IN CMC ECONOMIC REGION

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and HuntingMining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

UtilitiesConstruction

ManufacturingWholesale Trade

Retail TradeTransportation and Warehousing

InformationFinance and Insurance

Real Estate and Rental and LeasingProfessional,Scientific,andTechnicalServices

Management of Companies and EnterprisesAdmin. & Support and Waste Mgmt. & Remediation Services

Educational Services (Private)Health Care and Social Assistance

Arts, Entertainment, and RecreationAccommodation and Food Services

Other Services (except Public Administration)Government

NoPreviousWorkExperience/Unspecified

2+13+2+35+13+8+67+14+4+12+21+18+0+28+10+37+40+98+19+44+890 1,000 1,200800400 600200 1,400



2+13+2+35+13+8+67+14+4+12+21+18+0+28+10+37+40+98+19+44+89

a non-industry labeled as “No Previous Work Experience/

Unspecified.” This is simply a catch-all category for which

reliable unemployment data are unavailable. The Retail

Trade sector has the third highest number of unemployed.

It is common for industries like Retail Trade and Accom-

modation & Food Services to have a high percentage of

low-skill jobs that require little to no education and train-

ing, thus making them more vulnerable to worker turnover.

Another sector that is generally affected by high turnover

is Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Reme-

diation Services. For industry sectors such as Construction,

seasonal jobs or jobs of short duration may also lead to

high numbers of unemployed workers.

Only four industry sectors in the CMC Economic Region

exceed the national concentration of unemployed work-

ers. Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment,

& Recreation; and Real Estate & Rental & Leasing have

a much higher proportion of unemployed workers than

at the national level. On the other hand, Manufacturing

and Administrative & Support & Waste Management &

Remediation Services actually have a lower proportion of

unemployed workers than at the national level.

Table 1.7 and Figure 1.8 on the next page provide a

breakdown of unemployment in the CMC Economic Region

by major occupation group. As shown, occupational groups

that contain the highest number of unemployed workers

are sales & related occupations (965 unemployed workers),

office & administrative support occupations (929 unem-

ployed workers), no previous work experience/unspecified

occupations (864 unemployed workers). Though some of

these occupational groups have a relatively high number of

annual openings (see Figure 1.3), high turnover still leads

to a high number of unemployed.

A number of occupation groups have a concentration

TABLE 1.7: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY OCCUPATION GROUP IN CMC ECONOMIC REGION

SOC CODE DESCRIPTION

NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED

% OF UNEMPLOYED

NATIONAL % OF UNEMPLOYED

11-0000 Management 515 7% 6%

13-0000 Business and Financial Operations 208 3% 3%

15-0000 Computer and Mathematical 23 0% 1%

17-0000 Architecture and Engineering 67 1% 1%

19-0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science 42 1% 0%

21-0000 Community and Social Service 70 1% 1%

23-0000 Legal 59 1% 1%

25-0000 Education, Training, and Library 299 4% 3%

27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 226 3% 2%

29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 153 2% 2%

31-0000 Healthcare Support 208 3% 3%

33-0000 Protective Service 79 1% 1%

35-0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related 761 10% 7%

37-0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 478 6% 6%

39-0000 Personal Care and Service 332 4% 4%

41-0000 Sales and Related 965 12% 10%

43-0000 Office and Administrative Support 929 12% 15%

45-0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 32 0% 1%

47-0000 Construction and Extraction 762 10% 6%

49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 220 3% 2%

51-0000 Production 135 2% 6%

53-0000 Transportation and Material Moving 334 4% 7%

99-0000 No Previous Work Experience/Unspecified 864 11% 12%



of unemployed workers that is either at or below the

national average, including production occupations, office

& administrative support occupations, and transportation

& material moving occupations. Construction & extraction

occupations and food preparation & serving related occu-

pations have a much higher concentration of unemployed

than at the national level.

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

This section describes the educational attainment of the

population in the CMC Economic Region for adults aged 25

years and older. This information is useful for educators

targeting specific population groups that have low educa-

tion levels. Educational attainment data in this section are

presented by gender and by ethnicity and are broken out

according to the following categories: 1) less than a high

school degree, 2) high school degree, 3) some college,4 4)

associate’s degree, 5) bachelor’s degree, and 6) graduate

degree and higher.

4 The “some college” category includes individuals who attended college

but did not successfully obtain a degree and individuals who have

received a postsecondary vocational award or professional certification

but did not receive an associate’s or bachelor’s degree.

FIGURE 1.9: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ADULT

POPULATION IN THE CMC ECONOMIC REGION

10+26+23+8+23+10+P14+28+21+8+18+11+P

Less than HS diploma or equivalent

10%


14%

HS Diploma or equivalent

25%


28%

Associate’s Degree 8%

Associate’s Degree

8%

Bachelor’s Degree 23%

Bachelor’s Degree

18%

Graduate Degree and Higher

10%

REGION

NATION


11%

Some College 23%

Some College 21%

FIGURE 1.8: NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS BY OCCUPATION GROUP IN CMC ECONOMIC REGION

ManagementBusiness and Financial Operations

Computer and MathematicalArchitecture and Engineering

Life, Physical, and Social ScienceCommunity and Social Service

LegalEducation, Training, and Library

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and MediaHealthcare Practitioners and Technical

Healthcare SupportProtective Service

Food Preparation and Serving RelatedBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Personal Care and ServiceSales and Related

OfficeandAdministrativeSupportFarming, Fishing, and Forestry

Construction and ExtractionInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair

ProductionTransportation and Material Moving

NoPreviousWorkExperience/Unspecified

52+21+2+7+4+7+6+30+23+15+21+8+76+48+33+97+93+3+76+22+14+33+860 600 800400200 1,000



52+21+2+7+4+7+6+30+23+15+21+8+76+48+33+97+93+3+76+22+14+33+86 Overall Educational Attainment

Table 1.8 and Figure 1.9 on the previous page display the

educational attainment of the overall adult population in

the CMC Economic Region, without reference to gender

and ethnicity. In the CMC Economic Region, the percent-

age of the adult population with a high school diploma or

less is 35%, which is less than the national average of 44%.

These data suggest there is still an opportunity for educa-

tors in the CMC Economic Region to boost the percentage

of adults with an associate’s degree or higher (currently

this percentage sits at 41% for the region overall). Out of

all the education categories in Table 1.8, the people who

are most likely to seek education and training from CMC

are those in the “Less than high school diploma,” “High

school diploma,” and “Some college” categories. Together

these categories total 151,521 people, or 59% of the entire

adult population in the region. Between 2009 and 2014,

the only proportion of the overall adult population that

increased was those with “Some college” (by 1.3 percent-

age points). The proportion of adults with the other levels

of education decreased slightly. The two largest decreases

include those with a “Bachelor’s degree” (by 0.5 percent-

age points) and those with a “High school diploma” (by 0.4

percentage points).5

Educational Attainment by Gender

The distribution of educational attainment by gender

is fairly even in the CMC Economic Region. Males are

5 The column labeled “% Change” in Table 1.8 refers to the proportional

change, not to the percent change between 2009 and 2014. For example,

if a category comprised 20% of the total adult population in 2009 and

25% of the total adult population in 2014, the proportional change is

equal to the difference between the two values (in this example, 5%).

FIGURE 1.10: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF

ADULT POPULATION IN THE CMC ECONOMIC

REGION BY GENDER

11+25+24+7+23+10+P10+24+23+9+24+10+P

Less than HS Diploma or equivalent

11%

Less than HS Diploma or equivalent

10%


26%


24%



Bachelor’s Degree

23%

Bachelor’s Degree

24%


10%

MALES

FEMALES


10%

Some College 24%

Some College 23%

TABLE 1.8: BREAKDOWN OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE CMC ECONOMIC REGION BY EDUCATIONAL

ATTAINMENT, 2009 AND 2014

EDUCATION LEVEL2009

POPULATION2009 %

DISTRIBUTION2014

POPULATION2014 %

DISTRIBUTIONPOPULATION

CHANGE% DISTRIBUTION

CHANGE


25,216 10% 25,900 10% 685 (0.1%)

High school diploma or equivalent

64,154 26% 65,243 25% 1,089 (0.4%)

Some college 55,255 22% 60,378 23% 5,123 1.3%

Associate's degree 19,612 8% 19,843 8% 231 (0.2%)

Bachelor's degree 59,636 24% 60,358 23% 722 (0.5%)

Graduate degree or higher 25,992 10% 26,287 10% 295 (0.2%)

Source: EMSI QCEW, Non-QCEW, and Self-Employed Data 2014.4


more likely to have “Less than high school diploma,” “High

school diploma,” or “Some college,” level of education while

females are more likely to have an “Associate’s degree”

or “Bachelor’s degree” levels. This information appears in

Table 1.9 and Figure 1.10 on the previous page.

Educational Attainment by Ethnicity

Figure 1.11 and Table 1.10 display the educational attain-

ment of the adult population by ethnicity. The “Asian,

Non-Hispanics” ethnicity category has the highest percent-

age of adults with post-secondary degrees (49%). “White,

Non-Hispanic” category follows with 46%. The “Hispanic,

All Types” category has the lowest levels of education

attainment. For this group, only 13% of the adult popu-

lation has a post-secondary degree and 70% has a high

school diploma or less. While the region is largely “White,

Non-Hispanic”, there are many opportunities to increase

educational attainment in other ethnic groups.

FIGURE 1.11: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF ADULT POPULATION IN THE CMC ECONOMIC REGION BY

ETHNICITY

380+320

+170+40+60

+30=

140+270

+290+80+140

+80=

90+130

+280+100

+240+150

=

182+272

+322+122

+102+20=

232+322

+212+42+182

+10=

52+242+242

+82+262

+120=100%

Hispanic, All Types

Two or More Races, Non-

Hispanic

Native Hawaiian orPacificIslander,

Non-HispanicAsian,

Non-Hispanic

American Indian or Alaskan Native,

Non-HispanicBlack,

Non-HispanicWhite,

Non-Hispanic

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

<HS Diploma Graduate Degree and HigherBachelor’s DegreeAssociate’s DegreeHigh School Diploma Some College

510+50+130

+100+140

+70=


ATTAINMENT AND GENDER

EDUCATION LEVEL MALES PROPORTION FEMALES PROPORTION

Less than high school diploma or equivalent 13,979 11% 11,921 10%

High school diploma or equivalent 34,749 26% 30,495 24%

Some college 31,345 24% 29,032 23%

Associate's degree 8,845 7% 10,998 9%

Bachelor's degree 29,933 23% 30,425 24%

Graduate degree and higher 13,854 10% 12,433 10%




ATTAINMENT AND ETHNICITY

< HS DIPLOMA

HIGH SCHOOL

DIPLOMASOME

COLLEGEASSOCIATE’S

DEGREEBACHELOR’S

DEGREE

GRADUATE DEGREE AND

HIGHER

White, Non-HispanicCOUNT 10,986 52,022 52,408 17,619 56,819 24,807

PERCENT 5% 24% 24% 8% 26% 12%

Black, Non-HispanicCOUNT 356 496 318 68 282 12

PERCENT 23% 32% 21% 4% 18% 1%

American Indian or Alas-kan Native, Non-Hispanic

COUNT 238 352 421 156 128 29

PERCENT 18% 27% 32% 12% 10% 2%

Asian, Non-HispanicCOUNT 200 293 628 220 537 327

PERCENT 9% 13% 28% 10% 24% 15%

Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic

COUNT 97 10 24 20 27 12

PERCENT 51% 5% 13% 10% 14% 7%

Two or More Races, Non-Hispanic

COUNT 319 604 665 177 311 186

PERCENT 14% 27% 29% 8% 14% 8%

Hispanic, All TypesCOUNT 13,705 11,466 5,915 1,583 2,254 914

PERCENT 38% 32% 17% 4% 6% 3%



CHAPTER 2: PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS

The results that appear in this chapter present a focused

view of the program groups projected to have a regional gap

or surplus. Programs are analyzed at two different levels:

postsecondary vocational certifications and associate’s

degrees, according to the training level offered at CMC.

Each table includes the CIP code and title, the average

annual openings associated with that program (which have

been de-duplicated using the process outlined in Appendix

3), the average annual completers between 2011 and 2013,

and finally the gap or surplus figure. If the numbers are

positive, there is a shortage or “gap” of completers—i.e.,

there are more job openings in those occupations than

there are graduates or completers. If the numbers are nega-

tive, then there are fewer annual job openings compared

to the “surplus” of completers for those program groups.

The median hourly wage rate for related occupations is

included. Due to data limitations, the wages are aggregated

for all education levels.

INTERPRETING GAP/SURPLUS ANALYSIS RESULTS

The gap analysis is intended to serve as a point of depar-

ture for CMC as the College discusses regional workforce

needs. A surplus or deficit of workers in a particular cat-

egory does not necessarily indicate a problem for the

region, and it is important that each occupation group

be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Evaluation of the

program supply (surplus and gaps) will provide an under-

standing of the role skilled occupations play in economic

sustainability and growth.

Other information should also be considered when

evaluating these surpluses and gaps. For example, only

the education supply pipeline is considered in this analy-

sis because these numbers can be tracked at the county

and school level. However, other sources—unemployed

workers, industry trained pipelines, in-migrators, and job

changers from other occupational categories can also be

a source of skilled workers. These types of considerations

are useful when evaluating specific types of occupations.

Unfortunately, secondary data sources (e.g., regional, state,

and federal data) do not account for this, and primary

data collection methods (i.e., interviews and surveys) are

among the only ways to obtain information on this type

of supply pipeline.

Lastly, it is important to keep in mind that the labor

market is not so simple or efficient that one could expect

supply and demand to be at perfect equilibrium for any

extended period of time. As such, as a general rule of

thumb, only programs with considerable gaps or surpluses

should be considered long-term strategic issues worthy

of closer examination. Given the size and characteristics

of the CMC Economic Region, any gap or surplus within

10 jobs either above or below zero should be considered

within the normal range of labor market fluctuations.

Once evaluated internally within the College, specific

implications should be considered for programs with sub-

stantial surpluses or gaps. These implications include:

• Surplus: Oversupply of specific education completers

may lead to higher attrition rates (i.e., brain drain). In

other words, the region is educating a workforce that

is leaving after program completion because of a lack

of jobs. Note: In the analysis of the CMC Economic

Region where the neighboring population density is

high in neighboring areas, a surplus of completers

may indicate the need for Economic Region residents

to commute outside of the Economic Region to find job

opportunities. The commuting pattern flows described

in Chapter 1 suggest that this is possible.

• Gap: Undersupply of specific program completers may

lead to missed opportunities for economic growth and

put stress on local businesses to find necessary human

capital elsewhere. In other words, the region’s educa-

tion institutions are not providing the necessary work-


force for the region, thereby shifting the burden on the

industries to move workers from other economies to

fill the needed occupations. This translates into higher

human resources costs and decreased efficiencies in

the economic system. This also provides an opportunity

for institutions to develop new programs. Note: Given

population density in the areas bordering the Eco-

nomic Region, a completion gap may be filled by other

institutions near the Economic Region. This potential

scenario will need to be taken into consideration from

the leadership.

POSTSECONDARY CERTIFICATE LEVEL GAP ANALYSIS

Figure 2.1 provides an illustration that summarizes the

top gaps for CMC postsecondary certificate level programs.

There were a total of five gaps identified at this education

level.

Table 2.1 on the next page lists supply and demand

for all certificate program types for which CMC offers a

training program. While other program groups in the region

may face larger surpluses, CMC did not offer any of the

programs. Table 2.3 addresses programs that are not cur-

rently being offered but which would address considerable

regional workforce gaps. At the certificate level, CMC is

only one of the regional institutions offering programs and

as such, their completers comprise 51% of total regional

supply.

As shown in Table 2.1, Accounting Technology/Tech-

nician & Bookkeeping has the largest gap. There are 79

annual openings but only two average annual completers

(all from CMC). Culinary Arts/Chef Training (gap of 55;

median hourly wage $13.38) and Medical Office Assistant/

Specialist (gap of 18; median hourly wage $16.22) are the

second and third largest gaps. It is important to keep wages

in mind when reviewing the gap analysis. In the instance

of Culinary Arts/Chef Training, there may be a large gap,

but because the wages of the occupations associated with

this program are low, the returns to education may not be

justified, and by extension, expanding the programs may

not be warranted.

There are often some programs preparing students for

fields where they may compete with many other graduates.

There are seven programs at CMC that are training for

occupations with a significant surplus of workers. Emer-

gency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic) has

a surplus of 208. Nursing Assistant/Aide & Patient Care

Assistant/Aide is second with a surplus of 70 completers;

followed by Criminal Justice/Police Science (42). Although

CMC produces only 15 Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse

Training completers a year for the 16 regional annual

openings, other institutions add another 25 completers a

year, resulting in a surplus for the nursing program. It

is possible that the additional annual openings in areas

outside of the CMC Economic Region are being filled by

CMC completers. A review of placement rates could provide

additional information.

FIGURE 2.1: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR CMC POSTSECONDARY CERTIFICATE LEVEL PROGRAMS

Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping

Culinary Arts/Chef Training

MedicalOfficeAssistant/Specialist

Welding Technology/Welder

Real Estate

99+90+26+25+263+21+4+4+130 2010 30 40 50 60 70 80Demand Gap Supply

77

55

18

17

11


ASSOCIATE’S LEVEL GAP ANALYSIS

Figure 2.2 on the following page provides an illustration

of the top gaps for CMC associate’s degree level programs.

CMC had a total of four gaps greater than 10 at this edu-

cation level.

Similar to the previous table, Table 2.2 displays supply

and demand for all associate’s level programs for which

CMC provides training. Again, the table only includes pro-

gram groups available at CMC. Other program groups in

the region may face larger gaps, but CMC does not offer

the program. Table 2.3 addresses programs that are not

currently being offered but which would address consider-

able regional workforce gaps. CMC is once again only one of

the institutions offering associate’s degree level programs

in the region, and as such, their completers comprise 50%

of total regional supply.

The top programs that were training for undersupplied

TABLE 2.1: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR CMC CERTIFICATE LEVEL PROGRAMS

CIP CODE CIP TITLE

AVERAGE ANNUAL

OPENINGS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

COMPLETERS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

CMC COMPLETERS

TOTAL GAP OR

SURPLUS

MEDIAN HOURLY

WAGE

52.0302 Accounting Technology/Technician & Bookkeeping 79 2 2 77 $16.19

12.0503 Culinary Arts/Chef Training 72 17 17 55 $13.38

51.071 Medical Office Assistant/Specialist 21 3 3 18 $16.22

48.0508 Welding Technology/Welder 20 3 3 17 $20.95

52.1501 Real Estate 21 10 10 11 $23.55

47.9999Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians, Other

9 1 1 8 $13.81

51.0808Veterinary/Animal Health Technology/Technician and Veterinary Assistant

8 1 1 7 $14.53

52.0901 Hospitality Administration/Management, General 10 3 3 7 $22.93

22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal 6 2 2 4 $21.90

47.0604Automobile/Automotive Mechanics Technology/Technician

38 35 26 2 $18.48

3.0101 Natural Resources/Conservation, General 4 3 3 1 $17.09

50.0409 Graphic Design 7 7 7 0 $19.40

52.0701 Entrepreneurship/Entrepreneurial Studies 1 2 2 (1) $38.45

30.1201 Historic Preservation and Conservation 0 1 1 (1) $-

3.0511 Forest Technology/Technician 2 4 4 (2) $15.35

52.0906 Resort Management 2 6 6 (3) $23.40

15.0503Energy Management and Systems Technology/Technician

2 6 5 (4) $28.17

13.121 Early Childhood Education and Teaching 7 15 15 (9) $16.46

15.0699Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians, Other

0 13 13 (13) $20.78

11.0103 Information Technology 6 19 19 (13) $39.64

51.3901 Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training 22 40 15 (18) $20.88

52.0903 Tourism and Travel Services Management 3 28 28 (24) $26.70

43.0107 Criminal Justice/Police Science 24 66 32 (42) $27.23

51.3902Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assis-tant/Aide

56 126 69 (70) $12.97

51.0904Emergency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic)

16 224 202 (208) $15.70

Source: EMSI Gap Analysis Model. Numbers may not sum due to rounding


TABLE 2.2: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR CMC ASSOCIATE’S LEVEL PROGRAMS

CIP CODE CIP TITLE

AVERAGE ANNUAL

OPENINGS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

COMPLETERS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

CMC COMPLETERS

TOTAL GAP OR

SURPLUS

MEDIAN HOURLY

WAGE

52.0302Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeep-ing

90 5 5 85 $16.19

12.0503 Culinary Arts/Chef Training 59 9 9 51 $13.38

51.071 Medical Office Assistant/Specialist 23 8 8 15 $16.22

43.0203 Fire Science/Fire-fighting 18 7 7 12 $19.72

51.3801 Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse 76 70 32 5 $32.68

22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal 6 3 3 4 $21.90

52.0999 Hospitality Administration/Management, Other 0 0 0 (0) $27.09

52.0901 Hospitality Administration/Management, General 8 9 9 (0) $22.93

13.121 Early Childhood Education and Teaching 2 3 3 (1) $16.46

52.0701 Entrepreneurship/Entrepreneurial Studies 0 1 1 (1) $38.45

50.0409 Graphic Design 3 4 4 (1) $19.40

30.1201 Historic Preservation and Conservation 0 1 1 (1) $-

3.0101 Natural Resources/Conservation, General 3 4 4 (1) $17.09

11.0103 Information Technology 2 4 4 (2) $39.64

51.0904Emergency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic)

5 8 5 (3) $15.70

50.0406 Commercial Photography 1 6 6 (5) $12.43

50.0605 Photography 2 8 8 (6) $12.43


10 16 16 (6) $14.53

15.0699Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians, Other

0 7 7 (7) $20.78

52.0906 Resort Management 0 8 8 (8) $23.40

52.0903 Tourism and Travel Services Management 1 17 17 (16) $26.70

Source: EMSI Gap Analysis Model. Numbers may not sum due to rounding

FIGURE 2.2: SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR CMC ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE LEVEL PROGRAMS

Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping

Culinary Arts/Chef Training

MedicalOfficeAssistant/Specialist

FireScience/Fire-fighting

100+66+26+206+10+9+80 2010 30 40 50 60 70 80 90Demand Gap Supply

85

51

15

12


occupations at the certificate level are still undersupplied

at the associate’s degree level. Accounting Technology/

Technician & Bookkeeping (gap of 85), along with Culinary

Arts/Chef Training (gap of 51) and Medical Office Assistant/

Specialist (gap of 15), are the top three gaps. Fire Science/

Fire-fighting with a gap of 12 is the fourth and final gap.

For the CMC Economic Region, there is only one field with

a significant surplus at the associate’s degree level. The

reported surplus is in Tourism & Travel Services Manage-

ment. There is one annual opening compared to 17 regional

completers (all from CMC). As alluded to earlier, it is highly

likely that CMC completers are finding jobs outside the

CMC Economic Region. A review of placement rates could

provide additional information.

TRANSFER TRACK (LIBERAL ARTS) STUDENTS

A number of students attend CMC with the intention of

transferring to a four-year school to receive a bachelor’s

degree. Though these students study any number of topics,

a large number of them receive associate of arts degrees

in liberal arts. Over the past three years, an average of

314 students have completed liberal arts, pre-engineering,

or general studies degree at the associate’s degree level,

which composes 33% of the College’s annual production

of certificates and degrees.

Once these students leave CMC, their educational and

career track is difficult to predict. They could attend a

four-year college in the region or outside the region, and

they could study any number of different programs that

will ultimately determine their future career. What can

be shown is that over the next 10 years, jobs that require

a bachelor’s degree are projected to be in high demand.

In any given year between 2014 and 2024, 1,918 jobs will

require a bachelor’s degree and 8,401 will require a bach-

elor’s degree or less, availing these students of 91% of all

regional job openings.

POTENTIAL NEW PROGRAMS

In addition to knowing how well CMC’s current educational

programs are serving the local labor market, it is helpful

to know the fields of opportunity where the College could

create new program offerings. Table 2.3 on the next page

contains a list of 35 programmatic areas of opportunity

that could fill gaps in the labor market by postsecond-

ary vocational certificates and associate’s degrees. These

selected occupations present unmet annual openings by

completions within the region. Please note that these

tables highlight particular occupations, and in many cases

a program can be designed to train for multiple occupa-

tions. Once these occupations are grouped with other

similar occupations, the actual workforce gap may be

larger. Therefore, several programs with relatively small

gaps are included. The median hourly earnings for work-

ers in the Economic Region are included in the Table 2.3.

The education level at which the analysis was performed

is listed for each occupation.

There are 29 postsecondary certificate level areas of

opportunity listed in Table 2.3. Skilled trades and blue col-

lar occupations like general maintenance & repair workers,

carpenters, and electricians appear to be undersupplied

in the CMC Economic Region. Secretaries & administra-

tive assistants and tellers are also undersupplied. Tellers

and teacher assistants are lower paying occupations and

therefore might not warrant new program formation. Wage

rates range between $12.61 for tellers to a high of $26.59

for water & waste treatment plant & system operators

and aircraft mechanics & service technicians.

The other six areas of opportunity are at the associate’s

degree level. Only one of these potential new programs has

gap that is greater than the significant workforce gap of 10,

but they are occupations with high wages and the largest

gaps of potential programs at the associate’s degree level.

They are: dental hygienists, geological & petroleum techni-

cians, respiratory therapists, medical & clinical laboratory

technicians, cardiovascular technologists & technicians,

and diagnostic medical sonographers. Dental hygienists

have the largest gap of 14 and the highest median hourly

earnings of any occupations listed ($39.30 an hour). Median

hourly earnings for the other occupations are well over

$15 an hour ($17.51 for a low and $37.21 for the high).

CONCLUSION

Between both the postsecondary certificate level and asso-

ciate’s degree level, there are a total of nine programs

associated with significant workforce gaps—with three

programs having a gap at both levels. There are eight

programs associated with significant workforce surpluses.

Seven programs have a surplus at the certificate level, one

at the associate’s degree level.


TABLE 2.3: PROGRAMMATIC AREAS OF OPPORTUNITY

SOC SOC TITLE

AVERAGE ANNUAL

OPENINGS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

COMPLETERS GAP

MEDIAN HOURLY

EARNINGSEDUCATION

LEVEL

43-6014Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive

107 0 107 $16.53 Certificate

49-9071 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 91 0 91 $18.09 Certificate

47-2031 Carpenters 47 0 47 $18.83 Certificate

47-2111 Electricians 46 0 46 $23.28 Certificate

47-2073Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators

44 0 44 $21.34 Certificate

43-3071 Tellers 44 0 44 $12.61 Certificate

25-9041 Teacher Assistants 39 0 39 $13.31 Certificate

49-9041 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 36 0 36 $24.68 Certificate

47-2152 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 30 0 30 $22.33 Certificate

33-9032 Security Guards 28 0 28 $13.96 Certificate

33-3012 Correctional Officers and Jailers 20 0 20 $20.96 Certificate

49-9021Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers


49-3042Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines


13-1199 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 19 0 19 $25.79 Certificate

49-3031Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Spe-cialists


33-9099 Protective Service Workers, All Other 15 0 15 $18.26 Certificate

47-2221 Structural Iron and Steel Workers 14 0 14 $19.99 Certificate

43-6011Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants


51-8031Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and Sys-tem Operators


39-9031 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 11 0 11 $22.08 Certificate

15-1151 Computer User Support Specialists 10 0 10 $24.08 Certificate

21-1093 Social and Human Service Assistants 9 0 9 $15.40 Certificate

49-9099Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other


25-4031 Library Technicians 8 0 8 $16.01 Certificate

47-2211 Sheet Metal Workers 8 0 8 $20.79 Certificate

51-4041 Machinists 14 6 7 $17.28 Certificate

47-5021 Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas 7 0 7 $24.73 Certificate

29-2052 Pharmacy Technicians 7 0 7 $15.79 Certificate

49-3011 Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians 6 0 6 $26.59 Certificate

29-2021 Dental Hygienists 14 0 14 $39.30 Associate

19-4041 Geological and Petroleum Technicians 5 0 5 $23.24 Associate

29-1126 Respiratory Therapists 5 0 5 $27.31 Associate

29-2012 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 4 0 4 $17.51 Associate

29-2031 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 3 0 3 $28.71 Associate

29-2032 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 3 0 3 $37.21 Associate

Source: EMSI Gap Analysis Model


Five programs at the certificate level have significant

workforce gaps. Accounting Technology/Technician &

Bookkeeping has the largest gap (77). Culinary Arts/Chef

Training (gap of 55; median hourly wage $13.38) and Medi-

cal Office Assistant/Specialist (gap of 18; median hourly

wage $16.22) are the second and third largest gaps. The

four associate’s degree programs that register a gap are:

Accounting Technology/Technician & Bookkeeping (gap

of 85), Culinary Arts/Chef Training (gap of 51), Medical

Office Assistant/Specialist (gap of 15), and Fire Science/

Fire-fighting (gap of 12).

Emergency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Para-

medic) and Nursing Assistant/Aide & Patient Care Assis-

tant/Aide were the top two surpluses at the certificate level

(surpluses of 208 and 70, respectively). The top surplus at

the associate’s degree level is Tourism & Travel Services

Management (16). Some of the completers are likely get-

ting jobs outside the CMC Economic Region.

There are 29 postsecondary certificate level areas of

opportunity identified. Skilled trades and blue collar occu-

pations like general maintenance & repair workers, car-

penters, and electricians appear to be undersupplied in

the CMC Economic Region. Secretaries & administrative

assistants and tellers are also undersupplied. Six areas

of opportunity are at the associate’s degree level. Dental

hygienists have the largest gap and also pay $39.30 an

hour. Geological & petroleum technicians and respiratory

therapists are the potential new programs with the next

largest gaps. Each has a gap of five, but median hourly

earnings are well over $20 an hour ($23.24 and $27.31 an

hour, respectively).


APPENDIX 1: ABOUT EMSI DATA

As stated in Chapter 2, EMSI data were used to calculate

the projected number of annual job openings from 2014

to 2024. These projections take into account openings due

to job growth and openings due to replacement needs.

In order to capture a complete picture of industry

employment, EMSI gathers and integrates economic, labor

market, demographic, and education data from over 90

government and private-sector sources, creating a com-

prehensive and current database that includes both pub-

lished data and detailed estimates with full coverage of

the United States.

More specifically, EMSI combines covered employment

data from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

(QCEW-produced by the Department of Labor) with total

employment data in Regional Economic Information Sys-

tem (REIS-published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis

or BEA). This is augmented with County Business Patterns

(CBP) and Non-Employer Statistics (NES) published by the

US Census Bureau. Projections are based on the latest-

available EMSI industry data, 15-year past local trends

in each industry, growth rates in statewide and (where

available) sub-state area industry projections published

by individual state agencies, and (in part) growth rates in

national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Through this combination of data sources, EMSI is able

to fill gaps in individual sources (such as suppressions and

missing proprietors). This yields a composite database that

leverages the strengths of all its sources. Finally, EMSI’s

database is updated quarterly, providing the most up-to-

date integrated information possible.


APPENDIX 2: PROGRAM-TO-OCCUPATION MAPPING

Table A2.1 displays the crosswalk between educational programs (CIP codes) and occupations (SOC codes) that EMSI

used to complete the gap analysis. Also listed are the adjustment factors which were applied to the annual openings

figures for each occupation within each program. The methodology for these factors is described in Appendix 3, with

the program based weight figure recounted under “De-duplication of Annual Openings” and the educational level

adjustments recounted under “Education Level Adjustments.”

TABLE A2.1: PROGRAM TO OCCUPATION MAPPING WITH EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS

PERCENT OF WORKFORCE WITH GIVEN EDUCATION

LEVEL

CIP PROGRAM SOC OCCUPATION

PROGRAM BASED

WEIGHT

PSV AWARD OR SOME COLLEGE

ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE

3.0101Natural Resources/Conserva-tion, General

19-1031 Conservation Scientists 1.00 9 13

19-1032 Foresters 1.00 9 13

19-4093Forest and Conservation Techni-cians

0.66 42 54

45-4011 Forest and Conservation Workers 1.00 73 83

3.0511 Forest Technology/Technician 19-4093Forest and Conservation Techni-cians

0.34 42 54

11.0103 Information Technology 15-1111Computer and Information Research Scientists

0.66 6 9

15-1121 Computer Systems Analysts 0.66 20 28

15-1122 Information Security Analysts 0.66 29 43

15-1132 Software Developers, Applications 1.00 11 16

15-1133Software Developers, Systems Software

1.00 11 16

15-1134 Web Developers 0.66 23 31

15-1143 Computer Network Architects 0.66 27 41

12.0503 Culinary Arts/Chef Training 35-1011 Chefs and Head Cooks 0.52 70 86

35-2013 Cooks, Private Household 1.00 90 95

35-2014 Cooks, Restaurant 0.52 90 95

35-2019 Cooks, All Other 0.52 90 95

13.121Early Childhood Education and Teaching

25-2011Preschool Teachers, Except Spe-cial Education

0.41 39 53

25-2012Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education

0.41 39 53

15.0503Energy Management and Sys-tems Technology/Technician

17-3029Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters, All Other

1.00 60 83



LEVEL


PROGRAM BASED

WEIGHT



15.0699Industrial Production Tech-nologies/Technicians, Other

17-3026Industrial Engineering Techni-cians

0.75 60 83

22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal 23-2011 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 1.00 38 58

23-2093Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers

1.00 46 59

23-2099 Legal Support Workers, All Other 1.00 46 59

30.1201Historic Preservation and Conservation

19-3093 Historians 0.12 6 10

25-4011 Archivists 1.00 12 16

30.3301 Sustainability Studies 25-1099 Postsecondary Teachers 0.02 3 5

43.0107Criminal Justice/Police Sci-ence

33-3011 Bailiffs 1.00 73 86

33-3021Detectives and Criminal Investi-gators

1.00 33 46

33-3051 Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 1.00 49 66

33-9021Private Detectives and Investiga-tors

1.00 38 50

33-9031Gaming Surveillance Officers and Gaming Investigators

1.00 74 84

43.0203 Fire Science/Fire-fighting 33-2011 Firefighters 1.00 59 79

33-2021 Fire Inspectors and Investigators 1.00 53 71

33-2022Forest Fire Inspectors and Preven-tion Specialists

1.00 53 71

47.0604Automobile/Automotive Mechanics Technology/Tech-nician

49-2093Electrical and Electronics Install-ers and Repairers, Transportation Equipment

1.00 64 89

49-2096Electronic Equipment Installers and Repairers, Motor Vehicles

1.00 76 95

49-3023Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics

1.00 85 96

47.9999Mechanic and Repair Tech-nologies/Technicians, Other

39-1012 Slot Supervisors 1.00 58 68

47-4041Hazardous Materials Removal Workers

1.00 81 87

49-3093 Tire Repairers and Changers 1.00 90 95

48.0508 Welding Technology/Welder 51-4121Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers

1.00 92 98

51-4122Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

1.00 92 98

50.0406 Commercial Photography 27-4021 Photographers 0.19 42 52

50.0409 Graphic Design 27-1011 Art Directors 1.00 34 43

27-1014 Multimedia Artists and Animators 0.85 34 43

27-1019Artists and Related Workers, All Other

1.00 34 43

27-1024 Graphic Designers 1.00 31 44

51-9123Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers

1.00 93 97



LEVEL


PROGRAM BASED

WEIGHT



50.0605 Photography 27-4021 Photographers 0.26 42 52

51.071Medical Office Assistant/Spe-cialist

31-9092 Medical Assistants 0.05 69 91

43-6013 Medical Secretaries 1.00 67 81


29-2056Veterinary Technologists and Technicians

1.00 62 82

31-9096Veterinary Assistants and Labora-tory Animal Caretakers

1.00 66 81

51.0904Emergency Medical Technol-ogy/Technician (EMT Para-medic)

29-2041Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics

1.00 65 85

53-3011Ambulance Drivers and Atten-dants, Except Emergency Medical Technicians

1.00 81 89

51.3801Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse

29-1141 Registered Nurses 1.00 6 45

51.3901Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training

29-2061Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses

1.00 78 95

51.3902Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant/Aide

31-1014 Nursing Assistants 1.00 83 91

31-1015 Orderlies 1.00 83 91

52.0201Business Administration and Management, General

11-1011 Chief Executives 0.06 27 33

11-1021 General and Operations Managers 0.06 42 51

11-2022 Sales Managers 0.07 27 33

11-3011 Administrative Services Managers 0.07 48 59

11-3051 Industrial Production Managers 0.07 47 56

11-3071Transportation, Storage, and Dis-tribution Managers

0.07 63 71

11-9021 Construction Managers 0.06 59 66

11-9151Social and Community Service Managers

0.06 25 31

11-9199 Managers, All Other 0.05 38 46

13-1051 Cost Estimators 0.06 55 67

13-1111 Management Analysts 0.07 18 23

37-1011First-Line Supervisors of House-keeping and Janitorial Workers

1.00 83 89

39-1011 Gaming Supervisors 1.00 58 68

39-1021First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers

1.00 64 74

52.0302Accounting Technology/Tech-nician and Bookkeeping

13-2082 Tax Preparers 1.00 41 50

43-3021 Billing and Posting Clerks 1.00 70 83

43-3031Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks

1.00 72 83

43-3041 Gaming Cage Workers 1.00 82 89

43-3051 Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks 1.00 68 81



LEVEL


PROGRAM BASED

WEIGHT



43-4011 Brokerage Clerks 1.00 50 59

43-9111 Statistical Assistants 1.00 56 67

52.0701Entrepreneurship/Entrepre-neurial Studies

11-1011 Chief Executives 0.02 27 33

11-1021 General and Operations Managers 0.02 42 51

11-9151Social and Community Service Managers

0.02 25 31


52.0901Hospitality Administration/Management, General

11-9051 Food Service Managers 1.00 66 75

11-9081 Lodging Managers 0.47 50 59

52.0903Tourism and Travel Services Management


39-7012 Travel Guides 1.00 46 55

52.0906 Resort Management 11-9081 Lodging Managers 0.53 50 59

52.0999Hospitality Administration/Management, Other


52.1501 Real Estate 11-9141Property, Real Estate, and Com-munity Association Managers

1.00 52 61

13-2021Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate

1.00 40 51

41-9021 Real Estate Brokers 1.00 43 52

41-9022 Real Estate Sales Agents 1.00 43 52


APPENDIX 3: PROGRAM GAP ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

This appendix focuses on describing and understanding

the methodology used in the program gap analysis. This

requires data on both occupation demand (e.g., annual

job openings) and education supply (e.g., number of post-

secondary degree completions). These are then compared

through an education “gap” analysis to determine whether

an education program is potentially producing a surplus or

shortage of workforce talent relative to the number of job

openings. In this way, it is possible to see how the institu-

tion’s current programs are satisfying regional workforce

needs.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND MODEL

EMSI builds a model using demand-side data (average

annual openings) and supply-side data (postsecondary

education output) to compare workforce demand with

education supply. The purpose of this analysis is to find the

difference or “gap” between the average annual openings

for an occupation and the number of people completing

postsecondary degrees for that occupation, whether at CMC

or at another training provider within one of the regions.

This makes it possible to identify whether there may be

talent shortages or surpluses within the Economic Region.

The first step involves mapping the linkage between

annual openings for a SOC code and the number of comple-

tions for an education program CIP code. The BLS provides

information on the occupations that completers of specific

CIP codes are more likely to enter. Specific connections

have been refined through previous engagements with

education institutions and state departments of labor.

Some programs have direct occupational ties. For example,

a physical therapist assistant is a specific occupation that

requires specialized postsecondary training. In this case,

one CIP code (physical therapy technician/assistant) maps

to only one SOC code (physical therapists assistants). This

provides an easy comparison of annual openings for physi-

cal therapist assistants to the number of people completing

the relevant program to see whether a talent shortage or

surplus exists. Unfortunately, this is not always the case.

More often than not an educational program maps to

multiple occupations and an occupation maps to multiple

educational programs. For this reason, EMSI has pioneered

a method of de-duplicating completers, such that the

potential sources of supply are not double-counted for any

occupation. The details of this process are outlined in this

chapter, under “De-duplication of Annual Openings.”

OCCUPATION DEMAND

Educational Level Adjustments

To capture occupation demand, EMSI uses a proprietary

employment dataset that reflects total employment (i.e.,

employment covered by unemployment insurance as well

as proprietor employment). The employment data reflects

jobs for the third quarter of 2014. Within this dataset, EMSI

calculates the number of regional annual job openings

for the occupations that require two different levels of

postsecondary training.6 The BLS also provides educational

attainment data of current workers for each SOC code,

broken out by their highest level of education attained. The

data is presented as the percentage of workers in the SOC

code with educational attainment ranging from less than

a high school degree to an associate’s degree. Using these

data, EMSI adjusts the annual opening estimates for each

SOC code to only incorporate the percentage of workers

for three different educational levels that correspond with

CMC’s program offerings.

For example, as shown in Table A3.1, there are three

occupations trained for by Corrections (CIP code 43.0102).

6 See Appendix 1 for a description of the sources and processes of EMSI

data.


Within that cluster are an assortment of career fields,

including correctional officers and jailers, first-line super-

visors of police and detectives, and first-line supervisors

of correctional officers. Among correctional officers, the

majority of job openings (75%) are available to somebody

with “some college” or a postsecondary vocational award.

Alternatively, for first-line supervisors of police and detec-

tives, only 46% of job openings are accessible to a person

without a college degree. The weighted average of job

openings is calculated for each program at each program/

degree level where CMC has produced completers over the

past three years. Not taking into account the educational

attainment dynamics in this way would bias the result by

over-counting potential job opportunities for completers.7

De-duplication of Annual Openings

Most educational programs are designed to train people

for multiple occupational types, many of which are simul-

taneously linked with other educational programs. This

presents a complexity when comparing supply and demand

for any particular educational program. For instance, the

Computer Systems Networking & Telecommunications pro-

gram is mapped to three different occupations: computer

support specialists, information security analysts, and

computer systems analysts. If we focus on just one of the

occupations for this list—computer support specialists—it

is also mapped to 10 different educational programs, span-

ning program titles such as Computer Systems Analysis

and Medical Office Computer Specialist.

To ensure that no double-counting occurs, it is neces-

sary to either realign the program groupings to eliminate

the mapping of occupations to multiple programs, or to

determine what proportion of demand should be com-

pared with supply numbers from each program. EMSI

7 Given the changing dynamics and need for more education in the exist-

ing workforce (i.e., skills-biased technology change in many occupations

and industry sectors), this assumption is considered conservative.

takes the second approach in this analysis, which has the

advantage of maintaining the program titles and descrip-

tions in roughly the same format that completer data

were originally delivered to EMSI. EMSI uses a formula

that favors program types with the largest number of

completers, attributing a greater proportion of demand to

these than the programs which produce a smaller number

of completers. This method utilizes the assumption that

the higher output educational programs are likely feeding

a higher degree of demand within the Economic Region.8

Appendix 2 contains the detailed mapping of each CIP

code to all relevant occupations.

One possible criticism of this methodology is that it

assumes, all else being equal, students from higher-output

programs are more likely to obtain a job than students

from lower-output programs, whereas in reality students

are judged more by their skills and merits than their edu-

cational program of study. The intention of the analysis is

not to rate students’ capability of competing for jobs, but

rather to capture the unique dynamics of the local labor

market. For example, in a region where a unique program

such as Commercial and Advertising Art is more prevalent

than Graphic Design, it can safely be assumed that the

graduates of the Commercial and Advertising Art program

will be offered a larger number of local openings than are

students from the Graphic Design program. If such were

not the case, it would be unlikely for the Commercial and

Advertising Art program to remain the producer of local

talent in the long-term, as the program would yield stu-

dents to a program with a more successful job placement

rate.

8 Note this adjustment is performed on a program-by-program basis with-

out consideration of individual colleges or training providers. Therefore,

a single program offered at one large institution has no advantage over

a group of similar programs offered a number of smaller educational

providers provided that the aggregate output of the smaller schools is

near the output of the single larger school.

TABLE A3.1: EDUCATIONAL LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS

CIP CODE CIP TITLE SOC TITLE

“SOME COLLEGE, NO DEGREE” OR

POSTSECONDARY AWARD OR LOWER


OR LOWER

43.0102 Corrections 33-3012 Correctional Officers and Jailers 75% 88%

33-1012 First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives 46% 62%

33-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers 61% 75%

Weighted Average 68% 85%


Recognizing that some smaller programs produce stu-

dents who are more capable of obtaining local jobs than

students from larger programs, EMSI also provides an

alternative gap analysis, which does not reduce the number

of annual openings based on the size of each educational

program. Rather the total number of annual openings

available for students at each educational level is provided

without further modification. Due to this modification,

these numbers have not been de-duplicated, unlike the

annual openings figures shown in Chapter 2. These fig-

ures are provided in Appendix 4: Alternative Supply and

Demand Calculations.

EDUCATION OUTPUT

There are several educational institutions in the Economic

Region, some of which have programs similar to those

offered at CMC. Hence completers at CMC will be com-

peting for some jobs with completers from other regional

institutions. EMSI determined education output by Classi-

fication of Instructional Program (CIP) codes and identified

the number of completers for every award level within

those CIP codes. To find the output for all public and pri-

vate education institutions in the Economic Region, EMSI

used data from the Integrated Postsecondary Educational

System (IPEDS).9 These data are publicly available through

the National Center for Educational Statistics. Completions

data were averaged for a three-year period, 2011 through

2013, to smooth out any bumps in enrollment that may

be unique to a particular academic year. Data gathered for

CMC from IPEDS was reviewed for accurateness by CMC.

Tables A3.2 and A3.3 display the completion break-

down by institution and award type. CMC is one of many

institutions this region, granting 490 certificates and 457

associate’s degrees, which is 50% of both totals.

9 These data come with inherent weaknesses. First, numbers are only

available for institutions that participate in or are applicants for any

federal financial assistance program authorized by the Higher Education

Act (HEA). Also, IPEDS does not account for the fact that some people

may receive multiple degrees or certifications, so when the number of

degrees awarded exceeds the number of people receiving the degrees,

the number of completers can be overstated. Nevertheless, this sys-

tem is the best source for collecting data regarding a broad range of

educational institutions.

TABLE A3.2: SUMMARY OF POSTSECONDARY

CERTIFICATE LEVEL REGIONAL COMPLETIONS BY

INSTITUTION

INSTITUTION3-YEAR

AVERAGEPERCENT OF TOTAL

Colorado Mesa University 229 24%

Colorado Mountain College 490 51%

Glenwood Beauty Academy 25 3%

Intellitec College-Grand Junction 157 16%

The Salon Professional Academy-Grand Junction

54 6%

Grand Total 955 100%

Source: IPEDS

TABLE A3.3: SUMMARY OF ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE

REGIONAL COMPLETIONS BY INSTITUTION

INSTITUTION3-YEAR

AVERAGEPERCENT OF TOTAL

Colorado Mesa University 193 21%

Colorado Mountain College 457 50%

Intellitec College-Grand Junction 270 29%

Grand Total 921 100%

Source: IPEDS


APPENDIX 4: ALTERNATIVE GAP ANALYSIS CALCULATIONS

EMSI de-duplicated the annual openings shown in Chapter 2 to account for the magnitude of output from different

educational programs in the region. The process is explained in detail in Appendix 3 under “De-duplication of Annual

Openings.” This procedure is designed to reflect the unique supply and demand dynamics of each regional economy.

However, EMSI also recognizes that in some cases a student from a less predominant educational program is a more

likely candidate to be offered a local job. These alternative supply and demand calculations give equal weight to every

job opportunity within students’ field of study, regardless of whether that program is a big or small player in talent

development for the region. Therefore, these estimates should be considered as less conservative measures than those

from Chapter 2.

HIGHLIGHTS OF ALTERNATIVE GAP ANALYSIS

Among certificate level programs, the number of programs associated with gaps (10 or more) increased to six. Many

the top gaps remained the same: Accounting Technology/Technician & Bookkeeping, Culinary Arts/Chef Training, and

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist are the three largest in the alternative gap analysis. A similar story is found in the

surplus categories. The top three remain the same and are found in the same order. Under the alternative analysis,

there are six gaps and seven surpluses at the postsecondary certificate level. The complete list of programs can be

seen in Table A4.1.

At the associate’s degree level, the number of programs associated with gaps increased to six. The same programs

remain with no reordering. There is still only one surplus in the alternative analysis compared to the standard analysis

in Chapter 2, and it is the same program. Table A4.2 provides the complete alternative supply and demand analysis

for CMC’s associate’s degree programs.


ALTERNATIVE GAP ANALYSIS TABLES

TABLE A4.1: ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR CMC’S POSTSECONDARY CERTIFICATE PROGRAMS

CIP PROGRAM

AVERAGE ANNUAL

OPENINGS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

COMPLETERSCMC

COMPLETERSTOTAL GAP

OR SURPLUS

12.0503 Culinary Arts/Chef Training 137 17 17 120

52.0302 Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping 79 2 2 77

52.0701 Entrepreneurship/Entrepreneurial Studies 65 2 2 63

51.071 Medical Office Assistant/Specialist 45 3 3 42

48.0508 Welding Technology/Welder 20 3 3 17

52.1501 Real Estate 21 10 10 11

52.0901 Hospitality Administration/Management, General 12 3 3 9

47.9999 Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians, Other 9 1 1 8

51.0808Veterinary/Animal Health Technology/Technician and Vet-erinary Assistant

8 1 1 7

22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal 6 2 2 4

3.0101 Natural Resources/Conservation, General 6 3 3 3

47.0604 Automobile/Automotive Mechanics Technology/Technician 38 35 26 2

3.0511 Forest Technology/Technician 5 4 4 2

13.121 Early Childhood Education and Teaching 16 15 15 1

50.0409 Graphic Design 7 7 7 0

30.1201 Historic Preservation and Conservation 0 1 1 (1)

52.0906 Resort Management 4 6 6 (1)

15.0503 Energy Management and Systems Technology/Technician 2 6 5 (4)

11.0103 Information Technology 7 19 19 (12)

15.0699 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians, Other 0 13 13 (13)

52.0903 Tourism and Travel Services Management 12 28 28 (16)

51.3901 Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training 22 40 15 (18)

43.0107 Criminal Justice/Police Science 24 66 32 (42)

51.3902 Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant/Aide 56 126 69 (70)

51.0904 Emergency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic) 16 224 202 (208)


TABLE A4.2: ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR CMC’S ASSOCIATE’S DEGREE PROGRAMS

CIP PROGRAM

AVERAGE ANNUAL

OPENINGS

AVERAGE ANNUAL

COMPLETERSCMC COM-

PLETERSTOTAL GAP

OR SURPLUS

12.0503 Culinary Arts/Chef Training 129 9 9 120

52.0302 Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping 90 5 5 85

52.0701 Entrepreneurship/Entrepreneurial Studies 76 1 1 75

51.071 Medical Office Assistant/Specialist 54 8 8 46

52.0999 Hospitality Administration/Management, Other 13 0 0 13

43.0203 Fire Science/Fire-fighting 18 7 7 12

51.3801 Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse 76 70 32 5

22.0302 Legal Assistant/Paralegal 6 3 3 4

13.121 Early Childhood Education and Teaching 6 3 3 3

52.0901 Hospitality Administration/Management, General 11 9 9 2

50.0406 Commercial Photography 7 6 6 1

3.0101 Natural Resources/Conservation, General 5 4 4 1

50.0605 Photography 7 8 8 (1)

50.0409 Graphic Design 3 4 4 (1)

30.1201 Historic Preservation and Conservation 0 1 1 (1)

11.0103 Information Technology 3 4 4 (1)

51.0904 Emergency Medical Technology/Technician (EMT Paramedic) 5 8 5 (3)

51.0808Veterinary/Animal Health Technology/Technician and Vet-erinary Assistant

10 16 16 (6)

15.0699 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians, Other 0 7 7 (7)

52.0906 Resort Management 1 8 8 (7)

52.0903 Tourism and Travel Services Management 2 17 17 (14)


APPENDIX 5: DETAILED EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Table A5.1 displays the occupations that align with one or more of CMC’s educational programs. The programs with

which they align can be found in Table A2.1. Table A5.2 displays the occupations that align with one or more of the

programs discussed in the analysis of potential new programs (Tables 2.3). Note that if an occupation appears in Table

A5.1, it is usually not included in Table A5.2.

TABLE A5.1: DETAILED EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS RELATED TO EXISTING PROGRAMS

SOC OCCUPATION2014

JOBS2019

JOBS CHANGEPERCENT CHANGE

PROJECTED ANNUAL

OPENINGS

11-1011 Chief Executives 220 235 15 7% 8

11-1021 General and Operations Managers 3,070 3,362 292 10% 120

11-2022 Sales Managers 169 194 25 15% 9

11-3011 Administrative Services Managers 221 249 28 13% 10

11-3051 Industrial Production Managers 69 79 10 14% 4

11-3071 Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers 93 105 12 13% 5

11-9021 Construction Managers 749 678 (71) (9%) 20

11-9051 Food Service Managers 431 431 0 0% 12

11-9081 Lodging Managers 256 241 (15) (6%) 9

11-9141Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Manag-ers

460 454 (6) (1%) 16

11-9151 Social and Community Service Managers 128 144 16 13% 6

11-9199 Managers, All Other 901 922 21 2% 28

13-1051 Cost Estimators 413 436 23 6% 21

13-1111 Management Analysts 503 540 37 7% 19

13-2021 Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate 203 198 (5) (2%) 4

13-2082 Tax Preparers 132 143 11 8% 5

15-1111 Computer and Information Research Scientists <10 <10 -- -- 0

15-1121 Computer Systems Analysts 196 248 52 27% 14

15-1122 Information Security Analysts 21 28 7 33% 0

15-1132 Software Developers, Applications 238 292 54 23% 14

15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software 99 126 27 27% 7


SOC OCCUPATION2014

JOBS2019


PROJECTED ANNUAL

OPENINGS

15-1134 Web Developers 108 124 16 15% 5

15-1143 Computer Network Architects 56 63 7 13% 3

17-3026 Industrial Engineering Technicians 13 15 2 15% 1

17-3029 Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters, All Other 68 75 7 10% 3

19-1031 Conservation Scientists 95 100 5 5% 4

19-1032 Foresters <10 10 -- -- 1

19-3093 Historians <10 <10 -- -- 0

19-4093 Forest and Conservation Technicians 278 288 10 4% 13

23-2011 Paralegals and Legal Assistants 249 280 31 12% 11

23-2093 Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers 97 101 4 4% 3

23-2099 Legal Support Workers, All Other 57 62 5 9% 1

25-2011 Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 594 655 61 10% 31

25-2012 Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education 165 189 24 15% 10

25-4011 Archivists <10 <10 -- -- 0

27-1011 Art Directors 76 77 1 1% 2

27-1014 Multimedia Artists and Animators 75 76 1 1% 2

27-1019 Artists and Related Workers, All Other 43 44 1 2% 0

27-1024 Graphic Designers 416 438 22 5% 17

27-4021 Photographers 323 368 45 14% 14

29-1141 Registered Nurses 2,856 3,392 536 19% 170

29-2041 Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 383 446 63 16% 24

29-2056 Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 194 227 33 17% 9

29-2061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 397 483 86 22% 28

31-1014 Nursing Assistants 1,019 1,233 214 21% 65

31-1015 Orderlies 47 59 12 26% 3

31-9092 Medical Assistants 683 787 104 15% 36

31-9096 Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers 91 101 10 11% 4

33-2011 Firefighters 483 525 42 9% 22

33-2021 Fire Inspectors and Investigators <10 10 -- -- 1

33-2022 Forest Fire Inspectors and Prevention Specialists <10 <10 -- -- 1

33-3011 Bailiffs <10 <10 -- -- 0

33-3021 Detectives and Criminal Investigators 94 102 8 9% 4

33-3051 Police and Sheriff’s Patrol Officers 850 928 78 9% 44

33-9021 Private Detectives and Investigators 37 43 6 16% 2

33-9031 Gaming Surveillance Officers and Gaming Investigators <10 <10 -- -- 0


SOC OCCUPATION2014

JOBS2019


PROJECTED ANNUAL

OPENINGS

35-1011 Chefs and Head Cooks 467 484 17 4% 12

35-2013 Cooks, Private Household <10 <10 -- -- 0

35-2014 Cooks, Restaurant 3,423 3,771 348 10% 142

35-2019 Cooks, All Other 21 24 3 14% 1

37-1011First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers

540 567 27 5% 20

39-1011 Gaming Supervisors 25 29 4 16% 0

39-1012 Slot Supervisors 12 14 2 17% 0

39-1021 First-Line Supervisors of Personal Service Workers 363 383 20 6% 12

39-7012 Travel Guides 35 37 2 6% 2

41-9021 Real Estate Brokers 273 254 (19) (7%) 5

41-9022 Real Estate Sales Agents 1,319 1,220 (99) (8%) 21

43-3021 Billing and Posting Clerks 434 497 63 15% 22

43-3031 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 2,857 3,094 237 8% 76

43-3041 Gaming Cage Workers 14 14 0 0% 1

43-3051 Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks 145 165 20 14% 8

43-4011 Brokerage Clerks 15 19 4 27% 1

43-6013 Medical Secretaries 510 623 113 22% 30

43-9111 Statistical Assistants <10 <10 -- -- 0

45-4011 Forest and Conservation Workers <10 11 -- -- 1

47-4041 Hazardous Materials Removal Workers 40 44 4 10% 1

49-2093Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers, Trans-portation Equipment

28 30 2 7% 0

49-2096Electronic Equipment Installers and Repairers, Motor Vehicles

16 17 1 6% 0

49-3023 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 1,035 1,102 67 6% 44

49-3093 Tire Repairers and Changers 177 191 14 8% 10

51-4121 Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers 329 379 50 15% 22

51-4122Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Opera-tors, and Tenders

24 27 3 13% 0

51-9123 Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers <10 <10 -- -- 1

53-3011Ambulance Drivers and Attendants, Except Emergency Medical Technicians

15 20 5 33% 1


TABLE A5.2: DETAILED EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS RELATED TO POTENTIAL FUTURE PROGRAMS

SOC TITLE2014

JOBS2019

JOBS CHANGE%

CHANGE

PROJECTED ANNUAL

OPENINGS

13-1199 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 1,851 1,993 142 8% 55

15-1151 Computer User Support Specialists 504 579 75 15% 24

19-4041 Geological and Petroleum Technicians 67 94 27 40% 8

21-1093 Social and Human Service Assistants 376 416 40 11% 19

25-4031 Library Technicians 187 203 16 9% 14

25-9041 Teacher Assistants 1,344 1,492 148 11% 62

29-1126 Respiratory Therapists 124 150 26 21% 7

29-2012 Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians 116 144 28 24% 9

29-2021 Dental Hygienists 368 425 57 15% 22

29-2031 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 57 72 15 26% 4

29-2032 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 51 67 16 31% 4

29-2052 Pharmacy Technicians 249 289 40 16% 11

33-3012 Correctional Officers and Jailers 693 735 42 6% 28

33-9032 Security Guards 806 927 121 15% 38

33-9099 Protective Service Workers, All Other 258 283 25 10% 24

39-9031 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 728 792 64 9% 24

43-3071 Tellers 759 863 104 14% 61

43-6011Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assis-tants

772 812 40 5% 18

43-6014Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive

5,524 5,969 445 8% 160

47-2031 Carpenters 2,406 2,219 (187) (8%) 54

47-2073Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators

1,172 1,238 66 6% 48

47-2111 Electricians 1,420 1,514 94 7% 58

47-2152 Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters 963 1,029 66 7% 34

47-2211 Sheet Metal Workers 227 244 17 7% 9

47-2221 Structural Iron and Steel Workers 144 183 39 27% 15

47-5021 Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas 85 111 26 31% 8

49-3011 Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians 144 165 21 15% 9

49-3031 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists 349 399 50 14% 18

49-3042 Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines 341 399 58 17% 23

49-9021Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

537 559 22 4% 24

49-9041 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 547 674 127 23% 44

49-9071 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 2,906 3,145 239 8% 109

49-9099 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other 361 381 20 6% 11

51-4041 Machinists 328 362 34 10% 16

51-8031Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators

260 282 22 8% 14

Documents

COLORADO MOUNTAIN COLLEGE ECONOMIC OVERVIEW PROGRAM …coloradomtn.edu › ... › Gap_Analysis_CMC_final_2015.pdf · will be referred to as “the CMC Economic Region”. CMC has