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columnist for Agweb.com AGRIMoney.com FACEBOOK https:// www.facebook.com/WxRisk TWITTER @WXRISKCOM email: [email protected]. … SPRING FORECAST 2012…. David Tolleris. yes it was a WIERD WINTER!!! Wet ECB … No snow build up like last 2 winters… LA NINA fading by MAY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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columnist for Agweb.comAGRIMoney.com FACEBOOK https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk TWITTER @WXRISKCOMemail: [email protected] SPRING FORECAST 2012.David Tolleris
yes it was a WIERD WINTER!!! Wet ECB No snow build up like last 2 winters LA NINA fading by MAY
OVERSEAS Argentina Drought severe cold coming Ukraine sw Rusisa very dry Manchuria
WINTER 2011-12 WHAT WINTER? SUPER WARM EAST OF THE ROCKIES
RATHER INACTIVE or NOT STORMY
NEAR RECORD WARMTH EAST OF THE ROCKIES . DEC 2011 JAN 2012 and FEB 2012
WHAT HE PREDICTED FOR WINTER 2011-12 SEVERE COLD IN EASTERN US ALL OF JAN 2012
MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL UK / WESTERN EUROPE
MASSIVE NE US SNOWSTORM JAN 11-14 it was in the 50s and 60s
COLD & SNOWY DEC IN UKRAINE / W. RUSSIA near record warmth
SEVERE HEAT MID JAN 2012 IN AUSTRALIA Bingo!
WINTER 2012 USA
WINTER 2012 USA
WHY was this WINTER so NON WINTRY? Pattern in early & Mid NOV got off to a terrible start and it never recoveredDevelopment of HUGE Upper Low in the Jet stream at 500 MB Alaska/ Bering Sea. This feature NEVER moved.Acted like a PLUG or barrier keeping all severe cold over Alaska so there was no build up of large cold air masses in central & eastern CanadaThis featured ensured very strong Pacific Jet which was resistant to any sort of Big troughs formingNAO very Positive: near record levels
NOTE the HUGE UPPER LOW that is located over ALASKA here in early NOV 2011 and VERY POSITIVE NAO OVER GREENLAND
Typical Winter cold PATTERN
Large UPPER LOW --BLUE over ALASKAMeans NO +PNA and NO way for cold to reach into central & eastern CONUS
12/26/2011 UPPER LOW over Alaska has not moved
PATTERN WINTER2010-11
Drought Indicators
In SPRING 2011 Soil Moisture maps showed 1) large area of saturated grounds over Upper Plains/Upper Miss valley 2) large Drought area over Deep South. The mean Jet stream closely followed this alignment of wet & dry areas and so did the main area of super active severe wx season of 2011
Going into SPRING 2012 Soil Moisture maps show a large area of saturated grounds over Ohio Valley into the Northeast and a large very Dry and Drought area over Deep South. This sort of pattern suggests a mean Jet stream fairly similar to SPRING 2011 season -- in others words a severe weather season with the most active area over the OHIO and / or TN valley
Current Status of La Nina
Current Status of La Nina Last Winters La Nina was STRONG this one MODERATE
Current Status of La Nina
JAN 15 FEB 15 La Nina Begins to decay in SPRING 2012 reaching NEUTRAL by MAY and WEAK El Nino by JULY?
What we are Looking for are SHORT Duration La Nina events that were either WEAK or MODERATE in intensity that DIED off late SPRING or Early SUMMER2011 20081985 1996 1968
the 5 possible analog years indicate pretty cold MAM for Canada MN and the Dakotas
the 5 possible analog years indicate WET ECB/ Ohio valley
SENSIBLE WEATHER.. 2001-02 and 1972-73 Were both VERY MILD and either snowless OR almost snowless winters
IRI CLIMATE MODEL from FEB valid for MARCH APRIL MAY (MAM) TEMPERATURES
IRI CLIMATE MODEL from FEB valid for MARCH APRIL MAY (MAM) PRECIPIATAION
CFS climate model FEB 23 shows a WET MARCH 2012 over the Midwest
CFS climate model FEB 23 shows a very warm MARCH 2012
This is the real wild card for the Summer of 2012. Rather than looking at ALL El Nino events since 1950 that have occurred in the Summer lets look at those El Nino events that BEGAN in MAY or JUNE. If we look at Just those event we come with the following El Nino events as possible analogs 19631965 1972 1982 19911997 and 2002 what if we move into EL NINO by JUNE?
EL NINO precip patterns for the 7 events than Began in MAY or JUNE
EL NINO Temperature patterns for the 7 events than Began in MAY or JUNE
As a general rule I HATE making early season calls like for the NEXT season. But if we look at Just those El Nino event that began in MAY or JUNE (19631965 1972 1982 19911997 and 2002) only 1 of those Hurricane seasons has 10+ named TC (2002) only 1 Intense TC -- category 3-4-5 hit the US (Betsy) the vast Majority of all TC activity formed out side or North of the MDR Main Development Region.
Over past 30 days central & eastern ARG gas seen BIG increases in rainfall some areas now wetter than Normal: but east central Brazil TURNED extremely dry
WHY the drought over ARG & SE BRAZIL? See the LARGE pool of super warm Sea surface Temps off the ARG/ se Brazil ? That pool has altered weather patterns
SURFACE MOISTURE
FEB actual FEB Rainfall Rainfall anomaly
FEB actual FEB RAINFALL Rainfall Anomaly
IRI model RAINFALL for MAM shows a DRY pattern for SW BRAZiL
IRI model for TEMPS for MAM shows a warm central Argentina
RAINFALL ANOMALIES JAN 22-FEB22
CHINA rainfall anomaly for JANUARY note the 25% or less over much of North China Plain into southern Manchuria
Still DRY of FEB 2012 over North China Plain
SOIL MOISTURE
IRI model TEMPS for MAM shows a warm northern China
IRI model RAINFALL for MAM shows a DRY northern China
FEB 2012 ACTUAL RAINFALL
FEB 2012 RAINFALL ANOMALIES -- is there a Drought developing for FRANCE and SPAIN?
IRI model for TEMPS for MAM shows a WARM western and central EUROPE
IRI model RAINFALL for MAM gives off no strong signal for either wetter or drier than Normal conditions
CANADA
RUSSIAN Rainfall end of winter
RUSSIAN Soil Moisture % of Normal at end of FEB 2012
RUSSIAN Sub Surface Soil Moisture at the of FEB 2012
SUMMARY SPRING starts off Wet ECB dry or Normal Lower WCB DRY Upper Plains & N WCB Weakening La NINA -- cold dry Canada delayed planting there WET over ECB: Upper Plains DRY
SUMMARY Ukraine Russia cold & snowy MARCH 2012 warm and dry over France DROUGHT over Spain will get worse in March MELTING SNOWS in Ukraine & sw Russia FLOODING issues DRYNESS over Manchuria and NCP in China could get worse this March and April