Committee Members:Dr. Oleg V. Shipin (Chairperson)Prof. C. VisvanathanDr. Theo Ebbers

Committee Members:Dr. Oleg V. Shipin (Chairperson)Prof. C. VisvanathanDr. Theo Ebbers by

SHIRINA AFROZE by

SHIRINA AFROZE

CUMULATIVE EFFECT ASSESSMENT: ANALYSIS OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS

AMONG DRIVERS AND VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENTS

IN MULTIFUNCTIONAL WETLANDS

CUMULATIVE EFFECT ASSESSMENT: ANALYSIS OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS

AMONG DRIVERS AND VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENTS

IN MULTIFUNCTIONAL WETLANDS

System of assessment of all relevant environmental effects which result from ONE specific projectSystem of assessment of all relevant environmental effects which result from ONE specific project

EENVIRONMENT NVIRONMENT IIMPACT MPACT AASSESSMENTSSESSMENT

SSTRATEGIC TRATEGIC EENVIRONMENTAL NVIRONMENTAL AASSESSMENTSSESSMENTSystem of incorporating environmental considerations

into Policies, Plans and ProgramsSystem of incorporating environmental considerations

into Policies, Plans and Programs

Are EIA and SEA not enough?

Are EIA and SEA not enough?

WE DO NOT KNOW HOW EXACTLY WE IMPACT

AND DAMAGE

THE ENVIRONMENT

WE DO NOT KNOW HOW EXACTLY WE IMPACT

AND DAMAGE

THE ENVIRONMENT

ONE OF OUR PROBLEMS

ONE OF OUR PROBLEMS

METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY

Inherent and chronic lack of information, environmental

data sets, on majority of ecosystems

Inherent and chronic lack of information, environmental

data sets, on majority of ecosystems

Ironically, most of the world’s ecosystems, biodiversity and human population is in the developing world

Ironically, most of the world’s ecosystems, biodiversity and human population is in the developing world

MAJOR STUMBLING BLOCK

FOR CEAMAJOR STUMBLING BLOCK

FOR CEA

Use considerably increased number of environmental indicators and drivers for CEA

Use considerably increased number of environmental indicators and drivers for CEA

Use methodologies of expert opinion and Participatory Rural Appraisal- -“Local community opinion”

Use methodologies of expert opinion and Participatory Rural Appraisal- -“Local community opinion”

PROPOSED SOLUTIONPROPOSED SOLUTION

WHAT IS THIS TOOL WHAT IS THIS TOOL

OF OF

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUMULATIVE EFFECTS

ASSESSMENT ?ASSESSMENT ?

WHAT IS THIS TOOL WHAT IS THIS TOOL

OF OF

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUMULATIVE EFFECTS

ASSESSMENT ?ASSESSMENT ?

CEA CEA TOOL TOOL THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF ALL EFFECTSALL EFFECTS (IMPACTS) (IMPACTS)

ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc) ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc)

CEA CEA TOOL TOOL THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF ALL EFFECTSALL EFFECTS (IMPACTS) (IMPACTS)

ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc) ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc)

It comprisesIt comprises

Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of change resulting in the change resulting in the totaltotal cumulative impact cumulative impact

It makes use of It makes use of Expert opinionExpert opinion “ “Local community opinion” Local community opinion”

= Participatory Rural Appraisal= Participatory Rural Appraisal Existing data setsExisting data sets Rapid EIA, Rapid EIA, etc etc

It comprisesIt comprises

Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of change resulting in the change resulting in the totaltotal cumulative impact cumulative impact

It makes use of It makes use of Expert opinionExpert opinion “ “Local community opinion” Local community opinion”

= Participatory Rural Appraisal= Participatory Rural Appraisal Existing data setsExisting data sets Rapid EIA, Rapid EIA, etc etc

MAIN OBJECTIVEMAIN OBJECTIVEMAIN OBJECTIVEMAIN OBJECTIVE

To identify relevant sets of:

direct and indirect drivers exerting impacts and Valued Ecosystem Components - VECs of

wetlands considering services provided by VECs’ multifunctions

To identify relevant sets of:

direct and indirect drivers exerting impacts and Valued Ecosystem Components - VECs of

wetlands considering services provided by VECs’ multifunctions

SPECIFIC OBJECTIVESSPECIFIC OBJECTIVESSPECIFIC OBJECTIVESSPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

Analyze

(i) interrelationships among the identified drivers

(ii) the most influencing drivers for changes (iii) the driver-VECs interrelationships (v) Vulnerabilities of services performed by wetland VECs

Analyze

(i) interrelationships among the identified drivers

(ii) the most influencing drivers for changes (iii) the driver-VECs interrelationships (v) Vulnerabilities of services performed by wetland VECs

HOI AN RIVER BASIN AND DELTA, C. VIET NAM HOI AN RIVER BASIN AND DELTA, C. VIET NAM

Study Area 1Study Area 1

HOI AN CITY IS A MAJOR TOURIST ATTRACTIONHOI AN CITY IS A MAJOR TOURIST ATTRACTION

ANNUAL FLOODS RIGHT IN HISTORICAL CENTERANNUAL FLOODS RIGHT IN HISTORICAL CENTER

PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS

PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS

RESULTSRESULTS

RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTOF THE MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM IN HOI AN DELTA

RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTOF THE MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM IN HOI AN DELTA

Driver Types Direct Drivers Indirect Drivers

Physico-chemical

Agricultural practices

Agricultural land erosionDegradation of soil qualityLand use changeGroundwater quality Economic values

Agro-chemical pollution

Degradation of soil qualityGroundwater quality

Aquaculture Land use changeGroundwater qualityEconomic values

Bridge construction

Sedimentation (Accretion)Changes in water flow regimesFisheries

Deforestation Loss of biodiversityExtinction of speciesLand erosion

Drought Agricultural practicesEconomic value

Erosion Sedimentation (and/or Accretion)Deforestation Turbidity

Fishing Diversion structures (e.g., dams, barrages etc.)Agriculture and Water Pollution Economic value

Flooding Water qualitySettlement or displacementEconomic values

Hydropower and water diversion development

Biodiversity (e.g., due to change in land use)FishingSettlement or displacementLand use changeEconomic values

Industries Water and soil qualityFishingEmployment

Irrigation Erosion of irrigation canalsSedimentationLand use changeGroundwater table recharge (Aquifer recharge)

Land pollution Soil/land contaminationGroundwater depletion

Land use change Settlement or displacementAgricultural practicesEconomic valuesEmployment

Mining industry Soil characteristicsGroundwater quality

Natural disasters Agricultural practicesLand Erosion

Over exploitation of resources

Agricultural practices (e.g., crop yields)Habitat lossBiodiversity loss (due to tree logging)

Rainfall FloodingSedimentationGroundwater table recharge

Salinity River water qualityLand degradationMangrove depletionGroundwater depletion

Sedimentation Mangrove depletionTurbidity

Shrimp culture Land use changeAgricultural practices (e.g., crop yields)Groundwater qualityEconomic values

Water flow SedimentationFisheriesRainfallFlooding

Water logging Agricultural practicesLand use change

Water pollution Water qualityHypoxia (dropping of DO level) and Anoxia

LIST OF IDENTIFIED DRIVERSLIST OF IDENTIFIED DRIVERS

Cua Dai bridge

STORY OF A BRIDGEAS AN UNACCOUNTED

DRIVER-STRESSOR

STORY OF A BRIDGEAS AN UNACCOUNTED

DRIVER-STRESSOR

APPEARANCE OF A BRIDGE IS A NEW DRIVER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT

APPEARANCE OF A BRIDGE IS A NEW DRIVER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT

IT MY LEAD TO SEDIMENTATION RESULTING IN NEW ISLANDSIT MY LEAD TO SEDIMENTATION RESULTING IN NEW ISLANDS

THREATENED VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENT SEAGRASS BEDS + SEA TURTLES MAY DISAPPEAR

THREATENED VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENT SEAGRASS BEDS + SEA TURTLES MAY DISAPPEAR

SOME SOME VECVECS MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS S MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS DUE TO THE CRITICAL DUE TO THE CRITICAL VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYSOME SOME VECVECS MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS S MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS DUE TO THE CRITICAL DUE TO THE CRITICAL VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

A symbol of the Vietnamese environmentA symbol of the Vietnamese environment

Saola deerSaola deer

May be extinct in the Quang Nam river basinMay be extinct in the Quang Nam river basin

DIGRAPH OF WETLAND DRIVERS FOR HOI AN BASIN, VIETNAM

DIGRAPH OF WETLAND DRIVERS FOR HOI AN BASIN, VIETNAM

Mind-boggling complexity of real life interrelationshipsMind-boggling complexity of real life interrelationships

AQUACULTURE AND OVER-FISHING ARE MAJOR STRESSORS But also these are positive impacts on Society AQUACULTURE AND OVER-FISHING ARE MAJOR STRESSORS But also these are positive impacts on Society

MATRIX WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN

MATRIX WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN

Hydropower development is not strongly connected to other driversHydropower development is not strongly connected to other drivers

It is unlikely to be involved in cumulative effects, it has a high, but not synergistic effect It is unlikely to be involved in cumulative effects, it has a high, but not synergistic effect

CONDENSATION DIGRAPHS OF THE STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS

CONDENSATION DIGRAPHS OF THE STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS

Nam Ngum River BasinNam Ngum River Basin

SundarbansSundarbansHoi An River BasinHoi An River Basin

Distilled, clear-cut and obvious relationships Distilled, clear-cut and obvious relationships

DEGREE OF CORRELATION AMONG DRIVERS OF NAM NGUM RIVER BASIN, LAOS

DEGREE OF CORRELATION AMONG DRIVERS OF NAM NGUM RIVER BASIN, LAOS

INTERRELATIONSHIPS:Positive (directly proportional) and Negative (inversely proportional) INTERRELATIONSHIPS:Positive (directly proportional) and Negative (inversely proportional)

agricultural practice

positively connected with flooding

agricultural practice

positively connected with floodingnegatively connected

with over-fishing

negatively connected

with over-fishing

DRIVERS Aquaculture

Agriculture Pollution Land usechange

Flooding Drought

Aquaculture 1.000 .361 -.169 -.205 .292 -.183

Agriculture .361 1.000 .534 -.209 .619 .281

Pollution -.169 .534 1.000 -.354 .274 -.104

Land use change -.205 -.209 -.354 1.000 -.082 .395

Flooding .292 .619 .274 -.082 1.000 .500

Drought -.183 .281 -.104 .395 .500 1.000

QUANTIFIED INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS

QUANTIFIED INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS

Red colored values indicate strong connectedness Red colored values indicate strong connectedness

* computed by Spearman’s Rank Correlation* computed by Spearman’s Rank Correlation

0

20

40

60

80

100

Nipa palmtrees

Fisheries Aquatic andterrestrial

flora

Aquatic andterrestrial

fauna

Surace water Land quality Agriculture Settlement

Per

cent

age

(%) o

f im

pact

s

Hydropower Dam

Landuse changeTourism

RainfallIndustries

Mining IndustryWater logging

Agriculture

AquacultureFishing

Land pollutionWater pollution

Invasive sp.

IrrigationDeforestation

SalinitySedimentaion

FloodingErosion

IMPACTS (%) ON INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DIFFERENT DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN

IMPACTS (%) ON INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DIFFERENT DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN

Some drivers are much more impacting than other Some drivers are much more impacting than other

40 60 80 100

cumulative effects (%)

Sundarbans

Nam Ngum river basin

Hoi An river basin

94.9%

86.1%

92.6%

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) BY THE MOST INFLUENCING DRIVERS

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) BY THE MOST INFLUENCING DRIVERS

* computed by Principal Components Analysis* computed by Principal Components Analysis

The biggest effects are due to the strongly connected and most influencing driversThe biggest effects are due to the strongly connected and most influencing drivers

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) ON

INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DRIVERS

CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) ON

INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DRIVERS

* computed by Principal Components Analysis* computed by Principal Components Analysis

Few strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the bulk of the cumulative impactFew strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the bulk of the cumulative impact

0

25

50

75

100

Nipa palm Fisheries Surfacewater

Heriteriafomes

Mangroves Fisheries Surfacewater

Aquaticresources

Socioeconomic

Hoi An delta Sundarbans Nam Ngum basin

Strongly connected and influencing drivers Other drivers

VECsHoi An river delta

Nypa palm forest Fisheries Surface water

96.7 90.8 89.3

SundarbansHeriteria fomes Mangroves Fisheries

95.9 93.3 90.7

Nam Ngum river basin

Surface water Aquatic resources Socio-economic

85.2 80.3 69.5

MOST VULNERABLE VECs IN TERMS OF CUMULATIVE EFFECT VALUES (%)

MOST VULNERABLE VECs IN TERMS OF CUMULATIVE EFFECT VALUES (%)

Few strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the highest vulnerabilityFew strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the highest vulnerability

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Assessment of interrelationships between drivers showed that despite identical drivers for the areas, the drivers’ interrelationships varied significantly

Assessment of interrelationships between drivers showed that despite identical drivers for the areas, the drivers’ interrelationships varied significantly

(i) important insights can be obtained, showing which impacts are involved in active interaction and may have

cumulative synergy(ii) diverse wetlands show similar patterns

(i) important insights can be obtained, showing which impacts are involved in active interaction and may have

cumulative synergy(ii) diverse wetlands show similar patterns

The CEA tool was proposed to assess cumulative effects in the environment

The CEA tool was proposed to assess cumulative effects in the environment

Assessment of interrelationships between individual drivers and Valued Ecosystem Components (or resources) allowed for quantification of resource vulnerability

Assessment of interrelationships between individual drivers and Valued Ecosystem Components (or resources) allowed for quantification of resource vulnerability

The usefulness of the tool was demonstrated in three different areas showing phenomena which were not obvious previously

The developed tool can be factored into further conceptual development of the universal CEA theory

The usefulness of the tool was demonstrated in three different areas showing phenomena which were not obvious previously

The developed tool can be factored into further conceptual development of the universal CEA theory

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

I did my bitI did my bit

It is a humble step to solve one of

major problems

It is a humble step to solve one of

major problems