Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement... · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | August 27, 2012 Gold Weekly Price Performance •

Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Contents Returns

• Non Agri Commodities

• Currencies

• Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

• Gold

• Silver

• Copper

• Crude Oil

Currencies – DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

• Chana

• Black Pepper

• Turmeric

• Jeera

• Soybean

• Refine Soy Oil & CPO

• Sugar

• Kapas

Monday| August 27, 2012

Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | August 27, 2012

1.6

1.0 0.8

0.7

0.4

0.1 0.0

(1.0)(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Currencies Weekly Performance


3.4

2.0

0.7

0.2

(0.1)(0.3)

(1.1)

(1.8) (1.8)(2.0)(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

*Weekly Performance for September contract; Kapas - April 2013 contract

Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday| August 27, 2012


Gold Weekly Price Performance

• On weekly basis, Spot prices of Gold gained by 3.4 percent.

• The yellow metal touched a high of $1,674.80/oz during the week and closed at $1,669.85/oz in the last trading session.

• In the domestic market gold prices increased 2.4 percent in the last week.

ETF Performance

• Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 0.92 percent and stood at 1286.50 tonnes till August 24, 2012 as against 1274.739 tonnes for the week ending on August 17, 2012.

Factors that influenced gold prices

• Weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX).

• Expectations of stimulus measures from US and Chinese policymakers.

• Hopes that European policymakers will take steps to solve Euro Zone debt

crisis.

• Sharp upside in the prices was however restricted due to rise in the risk

aversion in the global markets.

Outlook

• In the coming week we expect gold prices to remain volatile ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting to be held on August 31st ,2012 and likelihood of the possible stimulus measures to be adopted to foster growth of the economy along with weakness in the DX .

• In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian rupee might support an upside in the currency.

Weekly Technical Levels

• Spot Gold : Support 1651/1628 Resistance 1693/1716. (CMP: 1674.0)

• Buy MCX Gold October between 30,840-30,820, SL-30,630, Target -31,170 (CMP : 31057 )

1,530

1,560

1,590

1,620

1,650

1,680

1,710

1,740

1,770

1,800

27,200

27,500

27,800

28,100

28,400

28,700

29,000

29,300

29,600

29,900

30,200

30,500

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX- Near Month Gold Futures (1 kg)- Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures - $/oz

78.0

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

1,5301,5501,5701,5901,6101,6301,6501,6701,6901,7101,7301,7501,7701,790

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Gold -$/oz US Dollar Index


Silver Weekly Price Performance

• Spot Silver prices increased 9.7 percent in the last week .

• The white metal touched a high of $30.81/oz in the last week and closed at $30.77 in the last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices gained by more than 6 percent and closed at Rs.56,971/kg on Friday.

• Appreciation in the Indian Rupee restricted sharp upside in the prices on the MCX.

Factors that influenced silver prices

• Weakness in the DX.

• Upside in Gold prices and Base Metals prices.


• Hopes that European policymakers will take steps to solve Euro Zone debt crisis.

ETF performance

• On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, declined by 0.9 percent to 9820.81 tonnes on 24th August 2012 from previous level of 9733.39 tonnes on 17th August 2012.

Outlook

• We expect Silver prices to trade sideways with upward bias due to optimism

that policy makers particularly the US and China may take steps to augment

growth in economy . Additionally weakness in the DX is also expected to

support the prices on the upside.

• In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee might restrict

sharp gains in the prices.


• Buy MCX Silver September between 56,750-56,700, SL-56,200, Target -

57,700/58,450.(CMP: 58218)

• Spot Silver : Support 29.90/28.95 Resistance 31.75/32.74 (CMP: 31.03)

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

50,500

52,000

53,500

55,000

56,500

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX- Near Month Silver Futures (30 kg)- Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures - $/oz

78.0

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

26.0

27.5

29.0

30.5

32.0

33.5

35.0

36.5

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index


Copper Weekly Price Performance

• Copper, the leader of the base metals pack gained around 0.2 percent and closed at $7,662.80/tonne in last trading session of the week.

Copper Inventories

• The red metal’s inventories on the LME warehouses increased around 0.4 percent to 235,550 tonnes on 24th August 2012 from the previous level of 234,550 tonnes on 17th August 2012.

• Weekly copper inventories at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.8 percent to 158,938 tonnes last week.

Factors that influenced copper prices



• Hopes that European policymakers will take steps to solve Euro Zone debt crisis.

• However, further upside in the prices was capped as a result of rise in LME and Shanghai inventories.

Outlook

• Copper prices in the coming week are expected to trade on a positive note on the back of expectation that global central bankers might adopt stimulus measure to augment growth in the economies. Expectation that European leaders too might take steps to curtail the Euro zone debt might support an upside in the copper prices.

• Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices on the MCX.


• Buy MCX Copper August between 422.40-421.40, SL-417.90, Target -430.80.(CMP: 427.35).

• LME Copper: Support 7594/7468 Resistance 7790/7914. (CMP: 7663.0)

385390395400405410415420425430435440445450

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

8,500

8,700

8,900

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

370,000

LME Copper Price Movement Vs Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


Crude Oil Weekly Price Performance

• On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices gained around 0.1 percent.

• On the domestic bourses, prices traded on a flat note and closed at Rs.5,346/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5,425/bbl during the week.

• Appreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented upside in the crude oil prices on the MCX. .

US Energy Department Inventory

• As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil inventories decline more than expected by 5.4 million barrels to 360.70 million barrels which for the week ending on 17th August 2012.

• Gasoline stocks fell by 1.0 million barrels to 202.7 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles gained by 1.0 million barrels to 125.20 million barrels for the last week.

Factors that influenced crude oil prices

• More than expected decline in the US crude oil inventories, tensions in the Middle East which are expected to disrupt supplies of Crude.

• Additionally, expectations that three storms are building in Caribbean Sea which will enter Gulf of Mexico coupled with weakness in the DX also supported upside in the prices.

Outlook

• Crude oil prices in the coming week are expected to trade on an upbeat note with closure of a quarter of crude output in the Gulf of Mexico due to expectation of arrival of Hurricane Isaac along with weakness in the DX. Further, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce crude shipments this month which may add to the gains of the prices.


• Sell MCX Crude September between 5420-5430, SL-5501, Target -5230.(CMP: 5405)

• Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 94.85/93.60 Resistance 96.60/97.80.(CMP: 97.06)

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

4400450046004700480049005000510052005300540055005600

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)


DX/ INR Weekly Price Performance

• US Dollar Index (DX) settled with depreciation of 1.3 percent in the last week.

• The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent in the last week.

Factors that influenced movement in the DX

• The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 1.3 percent during the week on account of expectations of stimulus measures from US and Chinese policymakers, hopes that European Finance Ministers will take appropriate steps to solve the Euro Zone debt crisis along with favorable economic data from US also added downside pressure on the currency.

• However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weak global market sentiments and decline in US equities.

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

• On a weekly basis, the Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent taking cues from positive sentiments in the domestic equities along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, selling of dollars from the exporters and banks coupled with expectations of stimulus measures from US and Chinese policymakers also acted as a positive factor for the currency. Also, increase in foreign funds supported upside in the currency.

• However, sharp positive movement in the currency was capped on the back of month end dollar demand from oil importers and banks.

FII Inflows

• For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 6,748.30 crores till 24th August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 59,014.10 crores till 24th August 2012.

Outlook

• We expect rupee to depreciate on the back of month end dollar demand along with expectation of GDP data of India for the April –June quarter to be released on August 31st 2012. Weakness in DX along with expectation of progress in solving the Euro zone debt crisis might cap sharp depreciation in the Rupee.


• USD/INR MCX August: Support 55.10/54.70 Resistance 55.80/56.20 (CMP:55.62)

• US Dollar Index: Support 81.0/80.40 Resistance 82.50/83.40 (CMP:81.54)

77.077.578.078.579.079.580.080.581.081.582.082.583.083.584.084.585.085.586.0

US Dollar Index

48.0

49.0

50.0

51.0

52.0

53.0

54.0

55.0

56.0

57.0

58.0

$/INR - Spot


Euro Weekly Price Performance

• Euro depreciated 1.4 percent in the last week.

• The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.2589 during the week and closed at 1.2511 on Friday..

Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

• Positive economic data from the region.


• However, rise in risk aversion in the global markets prevented sharp upside in the currency.

News • German Final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged at 0.3 percent in

Q2 of 2012. French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.8 points to 46.2-mark in current month as against a rise of 43.4-level in July. French Flash Services PMI gained by 0.2 points to 50.2-level in August from earlier increase of 50-mark in July.

• German Flash Manufacturing PMI increased by 2.1 points to 45.1-level in current month as compared to previous mark of 43 in July. German Flash Services PMI declined by 2 points to 48.3-mark in August with respect to earlier level of 50.3 in last month.

• European Flash Manufacturing PMI increased by 1.3 points to 45.3-level in current month as against a rise of 44-mark in earlier month. European Flash Services PMI was at 47.5-mark in August from previous level of 47.9 in July. European Consumer Confidence further declined to -25-level in July from previous decline of -22-mark a month ago.

Outlook

• We expect the Euro to trade rangebound due to weakness in the DX and expectation of possible steps to curb the Euro zone debt.


• EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.233/1.216 Resistance 1.263/1.276 (CMP: 1.2522)

1.15

1.18

1.21

1.24

1.27

1.30

1.33

1.36

1.39

Euro/$ - Spot

63.5

64.5

65.5

66.5

67.5

68.5

69.5

70.5

71.5

72.5

EURO/INR - Spot

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

• Improved rains across chana growing states and thereby better prospects of sowing led Chana futures to decline by 4.2%. Lower demand at high prices levels coupled with improved sowing of kharif pulses also exerted downside pressure over chana prices last week.

82 percent area covered so far under Kharif Pulses

• With kharif sowing nearing its end, the kharif sowing is expected to lag behind this season with only 82% area covered so far.

• Area covered so far is down by 11.5% at 88.3 lakh hectares (ha) compared to same period last year and by 17% compared to the normal area of 106.4 lakh ha.

Weekly Rainfall 24% above average in Northwest India

• Northwest India witnessed improved rainfall activity last week , with Rajasthan witnessing normal to excess rains last week. In central India, MP also witnessed normal to excess rains. Thus, sentiments for next season sowing has Improved on expectations of improved soil moisture.

Demand to improve at lower levels

• Demand, that remained subdued last week amid record prices, is expected to pick up on account of festive season ahead.

Fourth Advance Estimates – Chana output revised slightly up

• According to fourth Advance estimates, Chana output is revised up slightly from 7.4 to 7.58 mn tn. However, it is lower by 7.5% from last year’s 8.22 mn tn.

Outlook

• Chana prices in the current week are expected to trade with upward bias on expectations of demand to pick up ahead of festive season. However, sharp upside in the futures may be capped on fears of government intervention to curb rising prices of essential commodities.

Weekly Strategy

• Sell NCDEX Sept Chana between 4820 - 4860, SL - 5030. Target 4560

Black Pepper

Source : Spices Board of India



• Pepper prices traded on a negative note last week due to a fall in the demand for Indian pepper in the international markets. Indian pepper is being quoted at much higher prices vis-à-vis other exporting countries. Good stocks is reported from Indonesia. Industrial users as well as traders have refrained from buying. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.83% and 1.68% lower w-o-w.

• Pepper prices in India are being offered at $8,100/tn (c&f) while Vietnam is offering its 500 GL at $6,000/tn and Brazil B-Austa at $6,150/tn.

• Average daily arrivals is reported to be very low due to lack of demand .

A sharp fall in Pepper Exports

• According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper fell sharply from 2,266 tonnes in April 2011 to 1,200 tonnes in April 2012, by about 47%. In value terms it fell by only 18%, as the export prices were comparatively much higher.

Global updates

• Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of Pepper declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Consumption in the US is expected to be lower by 22-24% this year.

• According to Vietnam General Statistics Office, exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till July 2012 is estimated around 77,000 mt, lower by 69% in volume and 17.1% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January through May 2012 stood around 9376 MT.

Outlook

• Pepper prices in the coming week is likely to trade sideways. The spot markets will remain closed for most part of the week due to Onam festival, due to which there will be no supplies in the market.

Weekly Strategy • Buy NCDEX Sept Pepper between 41200-41350, SL-40500, Target 42430/42500.

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters



• Turmeric Futures corrected last week due to good stocks in the domestic markets. Also, improvement in rainfall has been reported in turmeric growing regions. In Erode, Turmeric stocks have been reported at around 25 lakh bags.. Spot prices did not correct as much as Futures due to export demand from Pakistan.

• According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown regions (Southern Peninsula) is reported at 28% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.56% and 7.05% lower w-o-w.

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

• Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 22nd August, 2012 has been reported at 0.49 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.62 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

• Production of Turmeric is expected to fall this year as the farmers have sown about 30% less turmeric as the prices corrected last year. Production of turmeric in Erode in 2011-12 is expected to rise 57% to 55 lakh bags as compared to 35 lakh bags in 2010-11.

Outlook

• In the coming week, turmeric prices may correct due to reports of improving rains in the turmeric growing regions. good rainfall has been reported from Krishna, Nizamabad, Guntur, Kadapa and Chitoor districts. Also, lack of demand from north India may pressurize the prices. Farmers and stockists also have good stocks with them. It is necessary to track monsoon progress as this may impact the sowing and the yield of Turmeric crops.

Weekly Strategy • Sell NCDEX Sept Turmeric between 6150-6250, SL-6580 Target 5650/5600.

Jeera

Source: Spices Board of India



• Jeera futures corrected last week due to improvement in the weather conditions in north Gujarat. Exports demand is been lower at higher levels. However, Spot did not correct as much as Futures as farmers are not selling at lower levels.

• The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.98% and 7.05% lower w-o-w.

Higher domestic production to offset exports

• Output of Jeera in India this season (2012) is estimated around 40 lakh bags, a rise of 37.9%as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2011 (each bag weighs 55kgs). However, the impact of higher supplies on the prices may be offset by expected increase in exports this season and thus medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports

• Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.

• Due to fall in the production in Syria and Turkey, and the ongoing tensions in Syria, exporters have been diverted to India. Export enquiries are expected to re-emerge at lower levels.

International Scenario

• According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 17,000 tons while production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

• In addition, the ongoing civil war in Syria has disrupted exports from Syria.

• Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2950/tn (c&f).

Outlook

• Jeera prices may correct this week due to improved rains in Gujarat which has improved soil moisture levels increasing prospects of better yield next season. However, prices may find support at lower levels if export demand emerges.

Weekly Strategy • Sell NCDEX Sept Jeera between 15400-15500, SL-15950, Target 14730/14670

Soybean


Weekly price performance

• NCDEX Soybean futures although settled higher last week taking cues from record high CBOT prices, the gains were marginal around 1% on account of higher acreage and improved rains in the last 2-3 weeks. CBOT Soybean made new high of 1764 cents per pound amid further downward revision in the US soy output.

Higher earnings boosted soybean acreage – oilseeds still lagging behind

• Soybean has been covered over 106 lakh hectares as on 23rd August, up by 3.9% during the same period last year, and by 15% compared to the normal area of 92 lakh hectares. However, groundnut sowing is till lagging behind by around 12%.

Move to ban oil meal exports counter-productive (Source: The Hindu)

• Solvent extractor’s Association of India’s President said that the Government proposal to ban export of oil meals, if implemented, will be counter productive as it will not only hit the crushing industry but also the solvent extraction plants that could face a shut down resulting in lesser vegetable oil production. A situation like this would lead to larger import of edible oil and higher prices of oil meal.

US soybean crop lower than USDA estimates and lowest since 2003

• According to the newsletter, Pro farmer, Soybean production was seen at 2.60 bn bushels on a yield of 34.8 bushels/ acre., lower compared to the USDAs soybean output estimates of 2.692 billion bushels and yield at 36.1 bushels/ acre

Brazil to see record output & exports next yr: planting starts next month

• Brazil’s grain Association expects the number 2 producers of soybean to produce record 81.3 mn tn in 2012-13. Planting in Brazil would commence from Sept. 15 & exports may soar to 37.5 mn tn, beating the 33.8-mn tn record in 2010/11 crop.

Outlook

• Soybean futures may remain under downside pressure amid higher acreage and good rains that may increase output in 2012-13. However, El Nino weather conditions is still keeping sentiments cautious and may act as risk to upside.

Strategy

• Sell NCDEX Sept Soybean between 4050-4125. SL - 4230, Target 3890 / 3850

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

• Edible oil complex witnessed robust gains last week on account of higher demand of edible oil in the global markets amid no signs of easing US soy crop losses. Soy oil at NCDEX and at CBOT settled 2.1% and 4.4% higher, while Palm oil futures at MCX and BMD, settled 2.3% and 4.6% higher w-o-w.

Global Scenario

• Malaysian palm oil product exports during Aug 1-25 rose 5.7 percent to 1,084,343 compared to 1,026,153 tonnes shipped in July 1-25.

• Demand which remained subdued in the last 2 months causing Malaysia's July palm oil stocks rose 17.6 percent to 1,998,870 tn has improved in the month of August amid expected tight supplies of edible oil.

• On the weather front, markets are watching for the possibility of an El Nino returning to Southeast Asia. However, according to IMD’s latest update, there will not be El Nino effect as chances of its occurrence is receding. Temperature in Pacific Ocean is okay

• Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has lowered its earlier output forecast by 8 percent to 23.6 mn tn .

Domestic Scenario

• India imported 112,611 tonnes of refined palm oil in July, down 9.28 percent from June. Total vegetable oil imports in July were 870,328 tonnes, up from 783,315 tonnes in the previous month (Source: Sea of India).

• India has set a new base import price on RBD palmolein at $1,022 per tn, making imports of refined palm oil costlier as it seeks to protect domestic refiners from cheap Indonesian imports. However, the tariff value on RBD palm oil been left untouched at $476 a tn.

Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

• Sell NCDEX Sept Refined Soy Oil between 815-820. SL - 840, Target 785/775

Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

• Buy MCX Sept CPO between 560 - 570, SL - 545, Target 595

Sugar



• Mixed views over sugar output amid truant monsoon coupled with sufficient supplies kept sugar futures under downside pressure last week. Liffe Sugar settled 1.6% lower w-o-w as cane crushing accelerates in Brazil.

More diversion of cane towards fodder to revise down output estimates

• ISMA had made an initial output estimate of 25 mn tn for 2012-13, lower than 26 mn tn for 2011-12. The industry is also expecting opening stocks of 7.0 mn tn.

• However, the estimates may be revised downward on reports that 25 mn tn of the cane is diverted towards fodder so far in the drought hit districts of Maharashtra. 25mn tn cane diversion would result into 3 mn tn drop in output.

Additional Quota sufficient to meet the festive season demand

• Apart from the 45 lk tn quota released during the start of the quarter Jul-Sept, govt released additional 6.6 lk tn in two parts that is to be sold off by 31st August. The quota is sufficient to meet festive season demand and contain prices.

Sugar Decontrol on cards in UP

• The UP government has decided to back some of the industry’s demands on sugar decontrol, that include abolition of levy, doing away with the regulated release mechanism, allowing export and the compulsory storage of sugar in jute bags. It has, however, said no to scrapping cane areas reservation & fixing cane price.

Cane crushing accelerates in Brazil

• According to Unica, Brazilian mills produced 3 mn tn sugar between Aug 1-16, up by 14% vs. 2.66 mn tn yr ago. Center-south cumulative sugar output till July which was 17% down is now down by 12 pct yr/yr.

Outlook

• Sugar futures may remain under downside pressure in the current week on account of sufficient supplies coupled with weak international markets.

Strategy

• Sell NCDEX Sept Sugar between 3450-3460, SL 3510, target 3375

Kapas/Cotton

Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | August 27 , 2012


• NCDEX Kapas futures settled lower by 0.52% w-o-w on account of marginal increase in production and carry over stocks. However, ICE Cotton October futures settled higher by 2.58% on robust demand amid low international prices.

Almost 99.73% of the normal area covered under Cotton so far in India

• Cotton sowing as on 24h August is down almost 5.2% on year at 11.15 mln ha as compared to 11.76 mln ha same period last year, the data showed.

India's monsoon rains 2 pct below average in past week

• Although monsoon has seen some improvement in the past 2 weeks, rains continue to remain below average in the major cotton producing states.

• In the key cotton growing state of Gujarat, rainfall is 92% scanty and in Andhra Pradesh it is 56% scanty, which has raised concerns over area as well as yield in the coming season.

Marginal upward revision in 2011-12 carry over Stocks-CAB meet

• The Cotton Advisory Board in its meeting held on 23rd August last week, increased production estimates to 353 lakh bales , while export estimated are revised upward to 127 lakh bales. Imports may increase further from the current 12 lakh bales amid low global prices leading to further increase in carry over stocks.

Global Scenario

• According to the monthly USDA crop report, US cotton production is raised 651,000 bales to 17.7 mn bales, up nearly 4 percent, based on USDA’s first crop survey. US ending stocks are estimated 14.6% higher compared to previous months estimates.

Outlook

• Kapas futures may witness further correction initially taking cues from marginal upward revision in carry over stocks. However, no major downside is expected amid concerns over next years supplies.

Strategy

• Sell Kapas April between 1140-1150, SL 1190, target 1080/1070

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700 Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from “Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]


mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Commodities & Currencies Weekly Trackerweb.angelbackoffice.com/Research_ContentManagement... · Commodities Weekly Tracker Monday | August 27, 2012 Gold Weekly Price Performance •