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NOPA Feb 2017

Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

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Page 1: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

NOPA

Feb 2017

Page 2: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

2

Global Pork Production

Source: USDA-WASDE

• Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year

• US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth Source: USDA

Page 3: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

3

China Pork Imports

Source: USDA-WASDE

• China’s pork imports increased 130% in 2016 and forecasted to remain strong in 2017

Source: USDA

Page 4: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

4

Global Poultry Production

Source: USDA-WASDE

• Global broiler production forecasted to increase 1% next year

• US (+2.2%) and Brazil (+3.5%) outpacing global growth Source: USDA

Page 5: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

5

Global Beef Production

Source: USDA-WASDE

• Global beef production forecasted to increase 1% next year

• US (+3.7%) outpacing global growth Source: USDA

Page 6: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

6

Changing Consumer Trends

Source: USDA-WASDESource: NCC

Page 7: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

7

Changing Consumer Trends

Source: USDA-WASDESource: Harvard Business Review, Technomics

Page 8: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

8

Changing Consumer Trends

Source: USDA-WASDE

Page 9: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

9

Veg Fed

Source: USDA-WASDESource: Agri Stats

Page 10: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

10

Antibiotic Free

Source: USDA-WASDE

Page 11: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

11

Antibiotic Free

Source: USDA-WASDE

“We are committing to use chicken that is not raised with antibiotics important to human medicine. McDonald’s has been working closely with farmers for years to reduce the use of antibiotics in our supply, thus we are able to commit today to stop using antibiotics important to human medicine in chicken production for McDonald’s USA by March 2017.”

“In partnership with our suppliers, we're working to establish a stable, sustainable, supply chain that can deliver on our promise of no antibiotics. Ever. This means that by the end of 2019, every customer, at every restaurant across the country will be served chicken without antibiotics every day (except Sundays, of course!).”

Page 12: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

12

Antibiotic Free

Source: USDA-WASDESource: Agri Stats

Page 13: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

13

Organic Poultry

Source: USDA-WASDE

• Retail organic chicken sales growing at exceptional rate

• Domestic organic soybean production relatively flat

Source: IRI

Page 14: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

14

US Organic Soybean Acres

Source: USDA-WASDESource: USDA

Page 15: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

15

Organic Soybean Trends

Source: USDA-WASDE

Page 16: Commodity Grain Update - NOPA · • Global pork production forecasted to increase 2.6% next year • US (+3.8%) and China (+3.6%) outpacing global growth . Source: USDA. 3. China

16

Supply Chain Effects

Source: USDA-WASDE

• Increase in Veg Fed Programs to increase demand for vegetable proteins in US rations

• Adoption of ABF production to have minimal impact on feed ingredient supply chain

• Organic production trend to have potentially material impact on ingredient sourcing