Jan 21, 2020

WHEAT/ Maize/Arhar/ Cotton

Commodity Market

Monitor

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All India Weather Status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 9th January 2020 to 15th January 2020

• Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Odisha and Gujarat states received the deficit rainfall

• Maharashtra states received the excess rainfall

• Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states received the large deficit

rainfall

• Tripura, Sikkim, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh,

Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh states received the large excess rainfall

• Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh state received the normal rainfall

• No rainfall has observed in Karnataka and Goa states only

During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 134% over the country as a whole.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st January 2020 to 15th January 2020.

• Tamil Nadu states received the deficit rainfall

• Assam and Telangana states received the excess rainfall

• Gujarat and Karnataka state received the large deficit rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Sikkim, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal , Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Andandhra Pradesh state received the normal rainfall

• Kerala state receive the normal rainfall

• No rainfall has observed in the Goa states only

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 1st January 2020 to 15th January 2020 was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 157% over the country as a whole.

Weather Forecast:

• Dense to very dense fog likely in some pockets over East Uttar Pradesh and in isolated pockets over West Madhya Pradesh; dense fog in some

pockets over Bihar and in isolated pockets over West Uttar Pradesh and Odisha

• Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning very likely at isolated places over Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland,

Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

• Cold day conditions very likely in some pockets over Saurashtra & Kutch and isolated pockets over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh.

All India Reservoir Status: as on 16th January 2020

Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 120 reservoirs of

the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly bulletin on every Thursday.

The total live storage capacity of these 120 reservoirs is 170.328 BCM which is

about 66.06% of the live storage capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to

have been created in the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated

16.01.2020, live storage available in these reservoirs is 126.578 BCM, which is 74%

of total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live

storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 81.923

BCM and the average of last 10 years live storage was 87.988 BCM. Thus, the live

storage available in 120 reservoirs as per 16.01.2020 Bulletin is 155% of the live

storage of corresponding period of last year and 144% of storage of average of

last ten years.

Current Crop Scenario

Corn

Acreage: Acreage of Gram in the current week is 15.31 lakh hectares, while, 14.11 lakh hectares

areas was reported in corresponding week of 2019.

Crop sowing is almost completed and crop is in vegetative growing to tasseling stage. However,

early sown crop is in silking stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Jan-20 was beneficial for

the crop. Crop has been affected due to infestation of sucking pest and fall army worm in certain

pockets of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana state. Overall in rest of areas crop condition is normal.

Acreage of corn in the current week is higher than corresponding week of 2019. Major Growing

States is Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka.

Gram

Acreage: Acreage of Gram in the current week is 105.35 lakh hectares, while, 95.44 lakh hectares

areas was reported in corresponding week of 2019.

Crop 27 to 60 days old and is in vegetative to pod formation stage, while, early sown crop is in

pod development stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Jan-20 was beneficial for the crop.

Incidence of sucking pest has been observed in the field and same is controlled using pesticides

spray. Overall crop condition is normal.

Acreage of Gram in the current season is higher as compare to 2018.

Lentil

Acreage: Acreage of Lentil in the current week is 15.94 lakh hectares, while, 16.84 lakh hectares areas was reported in corresponding week of 2019. Crop is 35 to 50 days old and is in vegetative to flowering stage. However, early sown crop is in pod formation stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Jan-20 was beneficial for the crop. Incidence of sucking pest and disease has been reported by the field and same is below economic threshold level. Overall current crop condition is normal. Crop acreage in the current week is lower than corresponding week of 2019.

Mustard

Acreage: Acreage of Mustard in the current week is 68.98 lakh hectares, while, 69.29 lakh hectares

areas was reported in corresponding week of 2019.

Crop is 55 to 85 days old and is in flowering to pod formation/ pod development stage. However,

short duration matured crop is in maturity/ harvesting stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of

Jan-20 was beneficial for the crop. Incidence of sucking pest has been reported by the field and

same is below economic threshold level. Overall crop condition is normal.

Acreage of Mustard in the current season is almost similar as compare to 2018.

Wheat

Acreage: Acreage of Wheat in the current week is 330.20 lakh hectares, while, 296.98 lakh hectares

areas was reported in corresponding week of 2019.

Crop 30 to 60 days old and is in vegetative growing to tillering stage, while, early sown crop is

jointing stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of Jan-20 was beneficial for the crop. Favourable

weather is good for the crop growth. Incidence of sucking pest has not been reported by the field.

Overall crop condition is normal.

Acreage of wheat in the current season is higher as compare to 2018. Higher acreage reported in

state of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

• The current Rabi season Wheat acreage as on 16th January, 2020 increased at 330.20 lakh hectare as compared to 296.98 lakh hectares last year same period. The seasonal normal acreage under wheat is 305.58 lakh hectares.

• Wheat acreage is reported from Uttar Pradesh at 98.70 lakh hectares, Madhya Pradesh 78.07 lakh hectares, Punjab 35.08 lakh hectares, Rajasthan 32.74 lakh hectares, Haryana 24.90 lakh hectares, Bihar 21.52 lakh hectares, and Gujarat 13.64 lakh hectares.

• As per market sources, wheat stock in central pool as on 1st January 2020 stood at 327.96 lakh tonnes down by 6.76 per cent compared to last month. This quantity is higher by around 20.92 per cent compared to last year for the same month. Government has already applied import duty on wheat to curb imports and provide support to domestic prices. Therefore, government has abundant supplies this year to tackle any unexpected rise in wheat prices by selling more quantity in open market.

• The government has cut the reserve prices of wheat and rice to clear the space for new crop. The reserve price of rice under OMSS has been cut to Rs 2,250 per quintal from Rs 2,785 per quintal fixed earlier. The reserve price of wheat now stands at Rs 2,135 per quintal for fair average quality and at Rs 2,080 per quintal for lower quality.

• India has raised MSP by Rs 85 per quintal to Rs 1925 per quintal for MY 2020-21. The hike in MSP is lowest in last three years. Even though this increase is lower it has still widened the gap between domestic and international prices. India wheat FOB at Kandla is ruling around $312 per tonne compared to $203.5 per tonne for Russian wheat with 11.5 per cent protein content.

• As per trade source, India has exported around 21.40 thousand tonnes in the month of November 2019. The quantity in November 2019 was exported at an average FOB of $298.15 per tonne and the major destinations were Bangladesh, Nepal, Jordan, UAE and Sri Lanka. Exports are likely to be at lower side as other countries are able to provide quality wheat at competitive prices.

• IGC has forecasted global wheat production to be 762 million tonnes for 2019-20. According to estimate by IGC for 2018-19, global wheat production was around 733 million tonnes against 762 MMT for 2017-18. The forecast for global production is higher by 29 million tonnes compared to estimate for 2018-19.

Fundamental Analysis- WHEAT

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 20-Jan-20 13-Jan-20 % Change

Delhi 2268.00 2253.00 0.67

Indore 2217 2193.00 1.09

Kota 2181.00 2140.00 1.92

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher acreage under Rabi season Bearish

Higher wheat stocks with Govt. Bearish

Higher MSP declared for 2020-21 Bullish

Lower imports due to high duty Bullish

Higher global production forecast Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

1,500.00

1,600.00

1,700.00

1,800.00

1,900.00

2,000.00

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2,200.00

2,300.00

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Wheat: Standard mill quality

Fundamental Analysis- Maize

1,600.001,700.001,800.001,900.002,000.002,100.002,200.002,300.002,400.002,500.002,600.00

Maize _ Gulabbagh

• As on 16th January 2020, the all India Rabi season Maize acreage has increased to 15.31 lakh hectares as compared to 14.11 lakh hectares last year same period. The normal seasonal acreage under Maize is 17.49 lakh hectares.

• In Bihar around 4.82 lakh hectares area was sown, in Tamil Nadu 1.48 lakh hectares, in Gujarat 1.31 lakh hectares, Maharashtra 1.98 lakh hectares, West Bengal 1.10 lakh hectares, Karnataka 0.87 lakh hectares and Telangana 1.07 lakh hectares area was covered under Maize.

• As per the 01st Kharif crop advance estimates of Ministry by Agriculture, the all India Maize 2019-20 productions is estimated at 19.89 million tonnes as against 19.04 million tonnes during 2018-19.

• The Government has increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of Maize by Rs. 60 at Rs, 1760 per quintal for 2019-20 as against Rs 1700 per quintal in 2018-19.

• As per trade sources, India imported around 58,941 metric tonnes of maize for the month of December 2019. Out of which, around 53,120 metric tonnes was imported from Ukraine for the Kandla port at an average value of $200 USD per metric tonnes while around 4,416 metric tonnes was imported from Myanmar for the Tuticorin, Chennai and Kolkata port at an average value of $263.95 USD per metric tonnes.

• As per trade sources, NAFED has issued an international tender to import up to 100,000 MT of Non- GMO corn to be sourced from Ukraine for the shipment between 1st February 2020 to 10th February 2020. Around 50,000 MT is sought for shipment to the Mangalore port and rest to the Tuticorin port at around $227 per metric tonnes.

• Demand from poultry feed manufacturers is likely to rise in the coming days as they will buy the grain in bulk fearing a smaller crop in the Kharif season.

• In Davengere region of Karnataka, maize arrivals are still containing moisture up to 16 per cent due to cold weather and fungus 3-4 per cent. Expectation of increase in arrival in Tamilnadu, could keep pressure on market sentiments. As per market sources, Maize prices have fallen 15 per cent to Rs 2,150 a quintal in the past month owing to higher imports from Ukraine, Myanmar and Russia.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 20-Jan-20 13-Jan-20 % Change

Erode 1950 2043 -4.55 Gulab bagh 2307 2063 11.83

Sangli 1956 2047 -4.45

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Higher imports and arrivals in spot markets

Bearish

Higher acreage under Rabi season Bearish

Improved demand from traders and stockists at lower levels

Bullish

Bulk buyers see the crop to be smaller than what the government has estimated

Bullish

Higher MSP for 2019-20 season Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Fundamental Analysis-Arhar

4,500.004,700.004,900.005,100.005,300.005,500.005,700.005,900.006,100.006,300.006,500.00

Arhar : Desi : Akola

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 20-Jan-20 13-Jan-20

% Change

Wardha 4525 5000 -9.50

Mumbai 4925 4975 -1.01

Akola 4850 5250 -7.62

• According to the trade sources, government may increase the

buffer stock limit of pulses to 19.50 lakh tonnes for 2019-20 from

16.15 lakh tonnes last year. Out of total buffer stock, 10 lakh MT

will be of tur, urad 4 lakh MT, lentil 1.5 lakh MT, green gram 1 lakh

MT and chana 3 lakh MT.

• According to NAFED, as on 20th January 2020 tur procurement

has started in Telangana and they have procured 1.81 thousand

MT at MSP price of Rs 5800 per quintal. Market prices for tur in

Telangana are in the range of Rs 4600-5200 per quintal. This year

government has set a target of procuring 5.45 Lakh MT of tur.

• In other states, procurement of tur is late due to late harvesting

of the crop. Procurement activities may start in the next few days

which might give support to the prices.

• New tur crop has started arriving in states like Gujarat,

Maharashtra, and Telangana in small amounts. At present

moisture content of the crop is higher but the quality of the crop

is good. Arrivals are expected to increase in the coming days

which might put downward pressure to the prices.

• Moreover, NAFED is also selling their old stock of tur in the open

market to make space for the procurement.

• At present, lemon tur from Myanmar is trading at Rs 4950 per

quintal in Mumbai port as against of MSP of Rs 5800 per quintal.

With arrivals of new crop, prices are expected to move

downward. However, prices are unlikely to decrease very much

due to lower production estimate and procurement activities to

be made by government at MSP.

• According to the first advance estimates, Tur production for 2018-

19 has been estimated at 3.54 million MT, 1.39 per cent lower than

the 2018-19 production estimate of 3.59 million MT. Despite the

same sowing acreage as compare to last year, lower production is

estimated is due to reports of crop damage in major producing

states like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh with large chunks of

standing crop submerged in water due to unseasonal rains.

According to the final Kharif sowing report, as on 27th September

2019, Tur sown area stood at 45.82 lakh hectares, nearly the same

as the 2018 acreage of 45.75 lakh hectares.

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Procurement activity by NAFED Bullish

Arrivals of the new crop Bearish

NAFED selling of old crop Bearish

Lower production estimate Bullish

Fundamental Analysis- Cotton

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Higher India production estimate YOY Bearish

Higher global production outlook YOY

Bearish

Lower demand of domestic apparel and lower exports

Bearish

Higher import of apparel & textile made ups

Bearish

Lower arrivals Bullish

Year over year higher procurement by CCI

Bullish

Higher selling price of cotton fixed by CCI

Bullish

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 20-Jan-20 13-Jan-20 %

Change

Adoni 4609 4829 -4.56

Amrawati 5325 5300 0.47

Akola 5380 5390 -0.19

• Domestic price remained firm but range bound in

cotton during last week, due to procurement by CCI and

private firms.

• Rajkot (Gujarat) 29 mm cotton price remained in range

and traded slightly firm by 1% at Rs 19456/bale from Rs

19312/bale last week, MCX future also traded traded in

range and closed at Rs 19890/bale.

• Andhra Pradesh 29 mm cotton price increased by 2% to

Rs 19409/bale from Rs 19361/bale last week.

• Internationally Cotlook ‘A’ index has strengthened by 1%

to 79.2 USc/lb from last week 78.5 USc/lb.

• The US Cotton contracts future also remained firm but

unchanged from last week at 71.25 USc/lb.

• The firmness in international prices is a result of funds

increasing their long position over optimism that China

will buy more under phase 1 agreement and positive

outlook for sales by USDA.

• CCI procured 38 lakh bales till 15th January vs 11 lakh

bales last year, out of target of 50 lakh bales

procurement target in 2019-20.

• CCI is selling cotton at Rs 46000/candy, while the

industry is not willing to buy at current price and

requested CCI to sell cotton at market price which is

around Rs 40000/candy. In response to that CCI

chairman made clear that CCI will not sell cotton at loss.

• Due to CCI not reducing prices and also procuring

higher than last year industry players have started

buying directly from market leading to firmness in

domestic prices.

• Basis trade sources All India cotton arrival is around

133.5 lakh bales, Maharashtra, MP and Gujarat stood at

57 lakh bales, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan stood at

42 lakh bales followed by Telangana, AP and Karnataka

stood at around 34.5 lakh bales.

• As per NCML the price rating for cotton is expected to

remain steady to firm basis factors listed below.

10,500.00

11,000.00

11,500.00

12,000.00

12,500.00

13,000.00

13,500.00

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Cotton - 29 mm - Rajkot

• Kharif production likely to decline

due to heavy post-monsoon

showers

• Improvement in prices, govt sops

to support sugar mills’ profitability

in near term: ICRA

• Cold, showers in North may yield

record rabi crop

• CACP recommends dual price

policy for sugar trade for farmers'

benefit

• Domestic paddy prices hold firm

over damage to crop last year

• Government plans to extend urad

imports till June on likely domestic

shortage: Sources

• Potato wholesale prices firm up

due to heavy rains

• Maize prices fall 15% on the back of

rising imports

• Government pushes for zaid crops

to mitigate Kharif deficit

• India's October 1 to January 15

sugar output down 26% y/y: ISMA

To purchase the India Commodity

Year Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

The Week That Was!

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2018-19 2019-20

KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1750 1815

paddy grade A 1770 1835

Jowar Hybrid 2430 2550

Jowar Maldandi 2450 2570

Bajra 1950 2000

Ragi 2897 3150

Maize 1700 1760

Tur/Arhar 5675 5800

Moong 6975 7050

Urad 5600 5700

Groundnut 4890 5090

Sunflower seed 5388 5650

Soybean Yellow 3399 3710

Sesame 6249 6485

Niger seed 5877 5940

Cotton (Medium Staple) 5150 5255

Cotton (Long Staple) 5450 5550

RABI**NEW**

Commodity 2018-19 2019-20

Wheat 1840 1925

Barley 1440 1525

Gram 4620 4875

Masoor (Lentil) 4475 4800

Rapeseed/Mustard 4200 4425

Safflower 4945 5215

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight

ago Month

ago Year ago

13-Jan-20 30-Dec-19 16-Dec-19 14-Jan-19

Wheat 2300 2200 2200 2105

Chana 4350 4435 4300 4193

Rice/Paddy 2900 2850 2750 3750

Tur 5300 5375 5300 4950

Maize 2410 2461 2332 1932

Turmeric 6180 6210 6030 6848

Official Production Estimates

First Advance Estimates 2019-20 & previous years’ estimates: Fourth advance estimates 2018-19 Link for commodity-wise and market-

wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

PRICE TRACKER

Crop & PHMF Division Progress area coverage under Rabi crops as on 16.01.2020

Area : In lakh hectare

Sl.no Crop Normal Rabi Area (DES)

Normal of corresponding

week

Area sown Difference of 2019-20 over

2019-20

2018-19

Normal of corresponding

week

2018-19

1 Wheat 305.58 300.33 330.2 296.98 29.87 33.23

2 Rice 42.76 18.49 21.41 18.11 2.92 3.3

3 Pulses 146 147.99 157.33 149.53 9.34 7.8

a Gram 93.53 94.62 105.35 95.44 10.74 9.91

b Lentil 14.19 16.05 15.94 16.84 -0.11 -0.9

c Field pea 9.45 10.28 9.54 10.4 -0.73 -0.86

d Kulthi 2.04 4.45 5.11 5.35 0.67 -0.24

e Urad bean 8.61 7.68 7.08 6.93 -0.59 0.15

f Moong bean 10.1 5.33 5.36 5.55 0.03 -0.2

g Lathyrus 4.13 3.69 3.12 3.09 -0.57 0.02

h Other pulses 3.94 5.9 5.83 5.92 -0.08 -0.09

4 Coarse Cereals 60.78 54.05 53.19 46.6 -0.86 6.33

a Jowar 35.75 31.31 29.46 24.81 -1.86 4.65

b Bajra 0.31 0.21 0.19 0.13 -0.02 0.07

c Ragi 0.46 0.53 0.42 0.62 -0.10 -0.19

d Maize 17.49 14.58 15.31 14.11 0.72 1.2

e Barley 6.77 7.42 7.81 7.2 0.39 0.61

5 Oilseed 78.85 79.49 79.25 79.17 -0.24 0.08

a Rapeseed & mustard 60.48 67.48 68.98 69.29 1.49 -0.31

b Groundnuts 7.76 4.75 4.54 4.2 -0.21 0.33

c Safflower 1.41 0.83 0.61 0.42 -0.22 0.2

d Sunflower 2.96 2 0.97 1.06 -1.03 -0.09

e Sesamum 3.12 0.59 0.51 0.57 -0.08 -0.06

f Linseed 2.99 3.45 3.31 3.36 -0.14 -0.04

g Other oilseed 0.14 0.39 0.33 0.28 -0.06 0.06

Total crops 633.98 600.36 641.39 590.64 41.03 50.75

Sl.no Full Name Department Location Sl.no Full Name

Department Location

1 Praveen Kumar Mundra S&P Ellenabad 17

CHETANA ISWALKAR CM Mumbai

2 Kuldip Singh Silo Projects Gurugram 18 Kalyan IVG Bengaluru

3 Priti Gharat SCM Mumbai 19 Nishikanta Pallai S&P Patna

4 Anilkumar Parvathaneni Risk Gurgaon 20

Dhruvika Tejaskumar shah IT Mumbai

5 Rakesh Kumar Raut S&P Gurugram 21 Sai Kumar Palaparti CWIG Hydreabad

6 Ajit Upadhyay FAG Gurgaon 22 Harish Kumar S&P Ellenabad

7 VIVEK H U CM DAVANGERE 23 vamshirishna g S&P adilabad

8 KARTIK DARA Projects Gurgaon 24 TUSHAR SRIVASTAVA Mktyard Gurgaon

9 NITIN KUMAR S&P BAREILLY 25 Nitin Laxman Tambe CM Satara

10 Ashutosh Tiwari Silo Projects

Batala (Punjab) 26 Saroj singh T&C Kanpur

11 Puneet Gupta CWIG Gurgaon 27 Mohit Saini CM Gharaunda,

12 Tanuj Goyal NFin Gurugram 28 Lalji singh yadav CM Samana

13 SHRIKRISHAN GOUR CM GWALIOR 29 V K rishna CWIG Hyderabad

14 Rajaram Bhilare S&P Mumbai 30 Arun Kumar CM Gurugram

15 John Babu B CM Bengaluru 31 Babloo Kumar CM Gurgaon

16 Babloo Kumar CM Gurgaon 32 Ritu Sangawat SCM Gurugram

1 Wheat stocks in the central pool as on 1st December 2019, is reported at ………………lakh metric tonnes.

351

2 How much Chana acreage is reported in AP 2019-20?

4.45

3 How much quantity of Sugar is contracted to export till 31’Dec?

25 lakh Mt

AGCON QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

Advisory Team

Nalin Rawal Head Nalin.r@ncml.com

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S. Anisul Hassan Head - Business Development anisul.h@ncml.com

Research Team

Sachin Wadhwa Head Research Soft Commodities Sachin.w@ncml.com

Ankur Gupta Data Scientist ankur.g@ncml.com

Mukesh Upamanyu Agri Analyst mukesh.u@ncml.com

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager suresh.s@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst akash.j@ncml.com

Ratanpriya Assistant Manager ratnapriya.a@ncml.com

Bhaskar M Quality Officer Bhaskar.m@ncml.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive Shefali.j@ncml.com

Surbhi Taneja Operation Executive Surbhi.t@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate rajiv.ku@ncml.com

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addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of AGCON. Any

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© NCML AGRI BUSINESS CONSULTANTS PRIVATE LIMITED (AGCON) 2019

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