23th July, 2019

CASTOR/MUSTURD/COTTON/SUGAR

Commodity Market

Monitor

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All India Weather Status

Last week all India Rainfall status: 11th July 2019 to 17th July 2019

• Manipur, ,Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka States received

deficit rainfall

• Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu states received the excess rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura, Sikkim, Bihar, Punjab and Goa state received the

large excess rainfall

• Nagaland, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Kerala state received

the large deficit rainfall

• West Bengal, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh states received the normal rainfall

During the week, rainfall was above Long Period Average (LPA) by 20% over the country as a whole.

Seasonal all India Rainfall status: 1st June 2019 to 22nd July 2019.

• Nagaland, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan,

Odisha, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala states received the deficit

rainfall.

• Mizoram and Sikkim states received the excess rainfall

• Manipur state received the large deficit rainfall

• Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Goa,

Maharashtra and Karnataka states received Normal rainfall.

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during 1st June 2019 to 22nd July 2019 was 19% below LPA.

.

Weather Forecast:

• Heavy to very heavy rainfall very likely at a few places with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Kerala & Mahe and Coastal

Karnataka; Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy falls at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka and Sub-Himalayan West

Bengal & Sikkim; Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Konkan & Goa and Tamilnadu, Puducherry &

Karaikal and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, East Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra,

Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, North Interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep during next 3 days

• Rainfall activity likely to increase over most parts of the country with normal to above normal rainfall activity outside most parts of Jammu & Kashmir, north Odisha and Gangetic West Bengal during the week (25th -31st July 2019)

All India Reservoir Status: as on 18th July 2019

Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 91

reservoirs of the country on weekly basis and is issuing weekly bulletin on

every Thursday. The total live storage capacity of these 91 reservoirs is

161.993 BCM which is about 63% of the live storage capacity of 257.812

BCM which is estimated to have been created in the country. As per

reservoir storage bulletin dated 18.07.2019, live storage available in these

reservoirs is 39.319 BCM, which is 24% of total live storage capacity of

these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage available in these

reservoirs for the corresponding period was 51.536 BCM and the average

of last 10 years live storage was 44.690 BCM. Thus, the live storage

available in 91 reservoirs as per 18.07.2019 Bulletin is 76% of the live

storage of corresponding period of last year and 88% of storage of average

of last ten years.

Source: IMD, DAC&FW and CWC

Current Crop Scenario Current Crop Scenario

CORN

Sowing of the crop is under progress in all major growing states. Crop is in sowing to early vegetative stage. Rainfall received during 3rd fortnight of July-2019 is beneficial for the crop. Acreage of crop in current week is similar to corresponding week of 2018. Incidence of disease and pest has not been observed in field till date. Overall crop condition is normal. There is high probability of increase in acreage as the farm gate realizations were higher during last year.

COTTON

Sowing of the crop has been completed in Punjab, Haryana and western Rajasthan (Gangangar and Hanumangarh) and the crop in these areas is currently in vegetative to square development stage. Sowings are under progress in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. Crop in these states is in early vegetative stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of July`19 was beneficial to the crop. There is no Incidence of any pest and disease till date. Overall crop condition is normal. Acreage of Cotton in the current week is higher than corresponding week of 2018 as a result of higher realization by farmers during the last three years.

PADDY Transplanting of Paddy is ongoing in major growing areas. Crop is in transplanting to early vegetative stage. In the states, where the crop was sown through DSR (Direct Seed Rice) method, crop is in emergence to vegetative stage. Incidence of disease and pest has not been observed in the field till date. Overall crop condition is normal. Though Paddy is mainly grown in irrigated areas, the crop requires favourable climatic conditions for crop growth after transplantation. Acreage of Paddy in the current week was lower than the corresponding week of 2018 as the weather was not congenial for transplantation. Farmers prefer cultivation of Paddy because of higher yield and better realizations.

SOYBEAN Sowing of the crop is in under progress in major Soybean growing states. Crop is in sowing to early vegetative stage. Rainfall received during 3rd week of July`19 is beneficial for the crop. Incidence of disease and pest has not been observed in the field till date. Overall crop condition is normal. Acreage of Soybean in the current week is lower than corresponding week of 2018 due to delayed onset of monsoon season and lower rains in key soybean growing states.

Fundamental Analysis- CASTOR

• According to the market participants, at present castor seed

stocks with stockiest are around 5 lakh tonnes which is lower

than last year. New crop is expected to come from A.P.-Telangana

from October-November and till then, millers are dependent on

the present lower stocks which might push the prices northward

in the coming months.

• However, eroding export demand of castor oil from traditional

buyers mainly China may put downward pressure on the prices.

On a cumulative basis, exports were 1.39 Lakh MT during the first

three months of the financial year beginning from April,

compared with 1.72 Lakh MT during the same period last year. In

2018-19 (Apr-Mar), India's castor oil exports slipped to 5.72 Lakh

MT from 6.51 Lakh MT a year ago.

• According to latest sowing report as on 18th July 2019, all India

Castor sowing is reported 0.481 lakh hectares in 2019 which is

22.92 per cent lower than last year acreage of 0.624 lakh hectares

in the same time period. However, in Gujarat, castor sowing

acreage is 18.4 Thousand Ha which is much higher than last year

acreage of 5 thousand hectares in the same time period. Castor

sowing acreage in Gujarat might increase this year as compare to

last year due to good prices of castor in domestic mandis

throughout last year. Expectation of higher sowing acreage in the

coming season might put downward pressure on the castor

prices.

• As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), all India

castor seed production estimate for 2018-19 is 11.27 Lakh MT

which is 21.35 per cent lower than the 2017-18 production

estimate of 14.33 Lakh MT. However, according to the AGCON,

castor production estimate is 9.13 Lakh MT for 2018-19.

• Arrivals of castor seed in the domestic mandis are lower due to

lower production estimate. According to the AGMARK data, all

India castor crop arrivals in the third week of July is reported at

7.11 Thousand MT which is 36.96 percent lower than last year

arrivals of 11.28 thousand MT in the same time period.

• As on 22ndJuly 2019, open interest to castor stock ratio in NCDEX is

57 per cent which seems to be in comfortable position. However,

according to the market participants, present stocks of castor

seed with stockiest and farmers are much lower than previous

year which might push the prices of castor in the coming months.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 22-07-2019 15-07-2019 %Change

Deesa 5549.6 5638 -1.57

Patan 5365 5435 -1.29

Rajkot 5200 5280 -1.52

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lower stocks of castor seed Bullish

Lower export demand of castor oil

Bearish

Expectations of higher acerages during Kharif 2019-20

Bearish

Lower production for the year 2018-19

Bullish

Lower arrivals in the domestic mandis

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

35004000450050005500600065007000

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Castor-Small : Deesa

Fundamental Analysis- RM SEED

• Rapeseed oil imports from November 2018 to June 2019 is

reported at 44.16 thousand MT which is 77 per cent lower than

the last year imports of 192.08 thousand MT in the same time

period. Moreover, imports from May to June 2019 is reported

to be nil. Lower imports over seasonal demand for mustard oil

during rainy season may push the prices upward.

• In the latest report, USDA has maintained export forecast of

rapeseed meal from India to 9 lakh tonnes in 2018-19 as against

of 8.41 lakh MT in 2017-18. However, India’s mustard meal

exports in the month of June 2019 were 54.247 thousand MT

(provisional), lower against 72.895 thousand MT in May 2019.

Total exports of rapeseed meal from April 2019 to June 2019

were 2.47 lakh MT which is 23.52 percent lower than 2018-19

exports of 3.23 lakh MT in the same time period.

• According to the market participants, demand of mustard seed

is lower than normal from millers due to lower demand of oil

cake. Moreover, selling of old stock from stockiest is also

putting downward pressure to the mustard prices.

• NAFED had procured around 1.08million tonnes mustard seed

harvested in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) under a price-support scheme.

Out of total procurement,NAFED had procured 6.08 Lakh MT in

Rajasthan, 2.51 lakh MT from Haryana ,1.82 lakh MT from

Madhya Pradesh ,0.41 Lakh MT from Gujarat and 0.06 Lakh MT

from UP. Procurement of mustard at MSP may give support to

the prices.

• According to the AGMARK data, all India mustard crop arrivals

in the third week of July is reported at 32.19 Thousand MT

which is 13.94 percent higher than last year arrivals of 24.19

thousand MT in the same time period. Higher arrivals are due to

higher production estimate this year and recent price hike in

the domestic mandis.

• MOPA has estimated all India mustard output at 8.1 million MT

in 2018-19, compared with around 7.1 million MT in the previous

year. However, this estimate is lower than the government

third advance estimate of 8.8 million MT in 2018-19, as well

as 8.4 million MT pegged last year.

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 22-07-2019 15-07-2019 % Change

Jaipur 4082.5 4100 -0.43

ALWAR 4089 4121 -0.78

SRI GANGA NAGAR

3950 3975 -0.63

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Lower imports of rapeseed oil Bullish

Lower export demand of oil meal Bearish

Selling of old stock from stockiest Bearish

Procurement of mustard at MSP Bullish

Higher arrivals in the domestic mandis

Bearish

Higher production estimates for 2018-19

Bearish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

3,200

3,700

4,200

4,700

5,200

5,700

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Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42%

Fundamental Analysis-COTTON

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

Location 22-07-2019 15-07-2019 %Change

Kadi (29 mm) 12654 12401 2.0

Akola (long staple)

12223 12083 1.15

Abohar (Medium staple)

11737 11750 -0.11

• Delay in rainfall in western and central regions (key Cotton producing

belts) in India has kept the cotton market firm. As per market sources,

If dry spell of rainfall persisted for the next few days then the fear of

re-sowing hovering in the minds of farmers may soon become a reality

which could delay new crop arrival or reduce production, specifically

in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Similar situation was observed in the

major producing regions of Telangana and Karnataka.

• According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Cotton acreage during

current Kharif season stood at 96.35 lakh hectares as compared to

92.70 lakh hectares same period last year. Cotton acreage in

Maharashtra declined by 5 per cent at 33.21 lakh hectares as against

35.01 lakh hectares last year, in Karnataka it declined by 15 per cent at

2.17 lakh hectares as compared to 2.58 lakh hectares and Andhra

Pradesh cotton acreage was 33 per cent down at 1.53 lakh hectares as

compared to 2.29 lakh hectares last year.

• The government has increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP)

2019-20 of Cotton (Medium Staple) at Rs 5,255 per quintal as against

Rs 5150 per quintal last year. Cotton (Long Staple) is fixed at Rs 5,550

per quintal as compared Rs 5450 per quintal last year.

• As per the 3rd Advance Estimates released by Ministry of Agriculture,

Cotton production could decline to 27.59 million bales (170 kg each) in

2018-19 from 32.80 million bales in the previous year.

• The Cotton Association of India has revised the Cotton output in India

to 312 lakh bales in June compared to 348 lakh bales in October last

year for 2018-19 cotton marketing season.

• Exports are likely to drop till the end of cotton season up to

September 30, 2019, to 40-50 lakh bales, according to industry

experts. India usually exports around 60-70 lakh bales annually.

• India has signed import deals for around 25 lakh bales of which nearly

20 lakh bales have arrived and the rest is expected to be shipped till

September 2019.

• Cotton Association of India (CAI), the total cotton supply till end of

the cotton season up to September 30, 2019, is estimated at 376 lakh

bales of 170 kg each consisting of the opening stock of 33 lakh bales at

the beginning of the season. CAI estimated imports at 31 lakh bales,

which are higher by 16 lakh bales against the previous year’s import

estimated at 15 lakh bales. Domestic consumption estimated by CAI

for the entire crop year September 30, 2019, is 315 lakh bales.

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Deficient rainfall in key cotton producing belts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka

Bullish

Higher Minimum Support Price declared by Government

Bullish

Higher acreage during current season at 96.35 lakh hectares against 92.70 lakh hectares

Bearish

Cotton exports likely to decline as per Industry experts

Bearish

Cotton production estimated to decline to 27.59 million bales in 2018-19

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

11,00011,50012,00012,50013,00013,50014,000

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Cotton 29 mm: Kadi (Rs./Quintal)

Fundamental Analysis- SUGAR

FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY

Price Drivers Impact

Subdued domestic demand in the monsoon season amidst higher availability

Bearish

Expectation of higher demand from Global markets

Bullish

Lower Sugarcane acreage during current season

Bullish

ISMA estimating a decline in Sugar production at 282 lakh tonnes in 2019-20

Bullish

Traders expecting demand to improve at lower levels

Bullish

Estimation of higher Sugar opening stocks at 145 lakh tonnes

Bullish

Based on Primary & Secondary Sources

Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal

LOCATION 22-07-2019 15-07-2019 %Change

Kolhapur 3137 3150 -0.41

Kanpur 3311 3282 0.88

Muzaffar Nagar

3220 3180 1.25

• Sugar prices remained mostly steady at the major spot market

across the country amid subdued demand against higher

supplies. As per traders, prices are likely to remain under

pressure in the days to come owing to subdued demand in

monsoon season and supply glut. Buying is also limited as there is

no festival demand either right now.

• Despite concerns over production, medium-to-long term

sentiments are also not very supportive owing to availability of

surplus quantity of sugar in the wake of higher opening stock.

• Meanwhile, there are rumours in the market that the

government will come up with new policy for the next sugar

season in the form of subsidies to help in exports.

• According to Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), Sugar prices

are expected to rise in the next season, which starts in October,

as experts believe there will be a deficit in the global markets of

around 4 million tonnes, mainly due to a drop in production from

India, Thailand and European Union.

• Sugarcane acreage in India as on 18thJuly 2019 has declined by 4

per cent at 50.01 lakh hectares as against 52.04 lakh hectares

same period last year. Due to lower rains acreage declined in

Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu by 24, 26 and 23 per cent

respectively.

• According to the ISMA India's sugar production may decline by

14percent to 282 lakh tonnes in the forthcoming sugar season

(2019-20) start October, mainly due to fall in the area under

sugarcane in Maharashtra and Karnataka.

• The opening stock as on 1stOctober 2019 is expected to be an all-

time high of around 145 lakh tonnes. As compared to a normative

requirement of around 50 lakh tonnes on 1st October of any year

as opening stocks, the industry is unnecessarily carrying around

95 lakh tonnes of sugar inventory.

• India is likely to continue the export subsidies on sugar even after

Brazil, Guatemala and Australia lodged complaint at WTO as it is

against the global trade practices. Export subsidies are important

so as to clear increase the shipment of sugar and thus helping in

reducing the rising sugar inventories.

2,800

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Sugar M-Grade: Kolhapur

• Falling overseas-domestic price gap to

boost cotton imports

• Organic farming acreage rises to 27.7

lakh hectares

• India losing African rice markets to

others

• Centre claims it is not aware of pro-GM

crop movement

• Potato farmers in Bengal in the doldrums

as prices crash

• To purchase the India Commodity Year

Book 2019, contact us at

research@ncml.com

The Week That Was!

Official Production Estimates

Third advance estimates 2018-19& previous years’ estimates: Fourth Advance Estimates 2017-18

Link for commodity-wise and

market-wise prices and arrivals:

http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArrival

s/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx

MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)

Commodity 2018-19 2019-20 KHARIF **NEW**

Paddy Common 1750 1815

paddy grade A 1770 1835

Jowar Hybrid 2430 2550

Jowar Maldandi 2450 2570

Bajra 1950 2000

Ragi 2897 3150

Maize 1700 1760

Tur/Arhar 5675 5800

Moong 6975 7050

Urad 5600 5700

Groundnut 4890 5090

Sunflower seed 5388 5650

Soybean Yellow 3399 3710

Sesame 6249 6485

Niger seed 5877 5940

Cotton (Medium Staple) 5150 5255

Cotton (Long Staple) 5450 5550

RABI

Commodity 2017-18 2018-19

Wheat 1735 1840

Barley 1410 1440

Gram 4400 4620

Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475

Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200

Safflower 4100 4945

*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal

# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal

Commodity Latest Fortnight ago

Month ago

Year ago

22-Jul-19 17-Jul-19 03-Jun-19 23-Jul-18 soybean 3619 3692 3710 3558

RM seed 4082 4100 4078 4374

Sugar 3137 3149 3147 3200

Cotton 12401.6 12394.6 12739 13498.3

Jeera 17886.4 18009.3 17278.3 18958.4

Castor 5549 5578 5568 4481

PRICE TRACKER

Crop Division Preliminary report on area coverage under Kharif crops as on 19-07-2019

Area : In lakh hectare

S.no Crop Normal Area

(DES)

Normal of corresponding

week

Area sown Increase (+)/

Decrease (-) over

2019 2018 Normal of

Corresponding week

2018

1 Rice 396.25 171.67 139.61 154.16 -32.06 -

14.55

2 Pulses 119.89 75.25 62.19 73.98 -13.06 -

11.79

a Arhar 43 27.5 22.87 26.44 -4.32 -3.56

b Urad bean 30.77 20.08 17.94 20.65 -2.14 -2.71

c Moong bean 27.5 19.21 16.23 20.35 -2.98 -4.12

d Kulthi 2.19 0.24 0.13 0.34 -0.12 -0.22

e Other pulses 16.44 8.21 5.02 6.2 -3.2 -1.19

3 Coarse cereals

188.39 113.69 101.85 110.01 -11.84 -8.16

a Jowar 21.61 11.97 9.27 11.89 -2.71 -2.63

b Bajra 74.39 42.17 34.55 39.13 -7.62 -4.58

c Ragi 11.53 2.43 1.52 2.06 -0.91 -0.54

d Small millets 6.18 1.58 1.4 1.41 -0.18 -0.02

e Maize 74.68 55.53 55.11 55.5 -0.42 -0.39

4 Oil seed 181.96 123.45 110.54 118.97 -12.91 -8.43

a Groundnut 42.44 26.67 24.01 22.65 -2.66 1.36

b Soybean 111.49 88.02 79.82 89.71 -8.2 -9.89

c Sunflower 1.84 0.83 0.49 0.66 -0.34 -0.17

d Sesame 14.13 6.85 5.45 5.11 -1.4 0.34

e Niger 2.41 0.25 0.29 0.22 0.04 0.07

f Castor 9.66 0.84 0.48 0.62 -0.36 -0.14

5 Sugarcane 48.32 47.32 50.01 52.04 2.69 -2.03

6 Jute & Mesta 7.87 7.37 6.82 7.17 -0.55 -0.36

7 Cotton 120.93 91.9 96.35 92.7 4.46 3.65

TOTAL 1063.61 630.65 567.37 609.03 -63.28 -

41.66

1 Wheat Imports in India for 2018-19 is.?

2.746 Thousand MT

2 Government has increased the MSP of Paddy (common grade) at Rs. ………………………per quintal for 2019-20.

Rs. 1 ,815

3 2. As per the Solvent Extractors Association of India, how much of Soybean Meal was exported in the month of June 2019.

18,185 tonnes

AGCON QUIZ ANSWERS OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK

THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!

S.No Full Name Department Location

1 Mr. Kuldip Singh Silo Projects Gurugram

2 Ms.Pratima Goswami Mktyard Gurgaon

3 Ms. Ritu Sangawat SCM GURUGRAM

4 Mr. S.Nafees S&P Raichur

5 Mr. PAWAN JOSHI Mktyard Ahmedabad, Gujarat

6 Mr.Basant Vaid SCM GUrgaon

7 Mr.AJIT UPADHYAY FAG GURGAON

8 Ms. Vanisha Vij HR&Admin gurgaon

9 Mr. Praveen Kumar Mundra S&P Ellenabad

10 Mr. v krtishna CWIG Hyderabad

11 Mr. Tarun kumar CM Sri Gangangar

12 Mr. Shanmukha k r CM Davanagere

13 Ms. Dr. Raina Jain T&C Indore

14 Ms. Sarita Mittal SCM Gurgaon

15 Mr. Abhineet srivastava IVG Gurugram

16 Mr. Jai kumar CM Amritsar

17 Mr. Rakesh Kumar Kain NFin Gurugram

18 Mr. BASKARAN R CM ARNI

19 Mr. Ajendra Singh Chauhan Mktyard Gurgaon

20 Mr. Javeed M S&P Davanagere

AdvisoryTeam

Nalin Rawal Head Nalin.r@ncml.com

Sreedhar Nandam Vice President sreedhar.n@ncml.com

S. Anisul Hassan Head - Business Development anisul.h@ncml.com

Research Team

Ankur Gupta Data Scientist ankur.g@ncml.com

Mukesh Upamanyu Agri Analyst mukesh.u@ncml.com

Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager suresh.s@ncml.com

Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst akash.j@ncml.com

Ratanpriya Assistant Manager ratnapriya.a@ncml.com

Nahalaxmi. J Client Service Executive nahalaxmi.j@ncml.com

Shefali Jain Operation Executive shefali.j@ncml.com

Rajiv Kumar Associate rajiv.ku@ncml.com

Mr. Ajendra Singh Chauhan

Mktyard - Gurgaon

CONGRATULATIONS !

NAME of the LUCKY WINNER

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