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8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
1/15
Markets performanceUnits Mar-2011 Mon to
dateYear to
date
Vegetable oils
SBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 58.78 3.54% 1.80%CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,326.00 -4.21% -12.20%RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,175.00 -3.49% -6.19%SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,246.00 -0.80% -1.89%Sunoil, Ex NWE /T 1,370.00 -2.84% -8.05%Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch /T 1,025.00 0.99% -5.96%CPO, cif, Rotterdam /T 1,246.00 -0.80% -1.89%CSBO degummed, Ex NWE /T 950.00 -1.04% -8.03%
Softs and Plantations
Sugar 11 @ ICE USc /lb 27.11 -16.61% -15.60%
Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 432.20 -7.33% 4.27%
Cocoa @ ICE US$ /T 2,952.00 -21.43% -2.73%
Coffee C @ ICEUSc /lb 264.15 -2.78% 9.83%
Energy and Metals
Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 106.72 10.05% 16.79%
Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,430.00 1.33% 0.74%
Silver spot US$ /oz 37.60 11.28% 21.84%
Copper @ LME US$ /T 9,428.00 -4.62% -1.79%
Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,648.00 1.85% 7.21%
Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,362.00 -6.27% -3.75%
Indices
DJIA 12,319.70 0.76% 6.41%
FTSE 100 5,908.76 -1.42% 0.15%
Strait times 3,105.85 3.17% -2.64%
S&P GSCI 725.62 5.03% 14.84%Currencies
US Dollar Index 75.8570 -1.34% -4.01%
GBP / USD 1.6031 -1.38% 2.77%
EUR / USD 1.4165 2.64% 5.89%
USD / JPY 83.1500 1.70% 2.46%
USD / SGD 1.2603 -0.87% -1.73%
USD / MYR 3.0250 -0.79% -1.85%
USD / BRL 1.6315 -1.92% -1.68%
nthly Commodity Markets Roundup
r 2011
Index
> Market performance
> Analysis Oil and oilseeds: Key market drive
in the short to medium term.
> Market visuals Commodity fundamentals gauge Price charts - Agriculture
Price charts - Energy Indices Currency Macroeconomic gauge Traders positions vs. price Spreads Corner
8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
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Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Mar 2011
-1- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
Analysis
Oil and oilseeds: Key market drivers in the short to medium termAgricultural commodities have mostly ended the month in red, although were able to recover from
early month weakness and trim those initial losses. The political tensions in Middle East and North
Africa region intensified further with more countries joining the league. Coupled with the geopolitica
tensions, the natural disaster in Japan shook the financial markets for a while; however, markets could
bounce back on expectations of reconstruction demand and currency interventions. At the same time,
surging energy prices extended lateral support to the agricultural markets in general and help avoidmajor losses. The important price drivers of oilseed and vegetable oil markets for the coming period
are discussed below.
i) Expectations on US soybean planting acreage for MY 2011/12
The relative firmness of corn prices over soybean has fueled the expectations of soybean losing
acreage to corn in US in the upcoming marketing year, 2011/12. As evident in Fig-1, the soybean to
corn price ratio is currently hovering near the lower end of the historical range. The declining ratio
indicates the relative firmness of corn price vis--vis soybean price. The price ratio has dropped to
levels previously witnessed in the years 2007/08 and 1996/97, during when corn has managed to gain
an edge over soybean with respect to planting acreage. Year 2011/12 could be a repetition of the
history as the ratio hovers below 1.9 and the same is
indicated by the first planting intentions
survey estimates of USDA. As illustrated in
the table, US soybean acreage is expected
to drop by over 0.8 million acres from
previous year acreage of 77.4 to 76.6
million acres in 2011/12 while corn is
expected to gain by 3.97 million acres to
92.17 million acres during the same period.
Although these estimates are subject to
revisions, the expectations clearly highlight
Table-1: US prospective planting estimates for MY
2011/12
2009/10
10/11 Marforecast
11/12
plantingintentions
change (Y-o-Y)
Soybean 77.5 77.4 76.6 -0.8 -1.0%
Corn 86.4 88.2 92.17 3.97 4.5%
Wheat 59.2 53.6 58.02 4.42 8.2%
Cotton 9.15 10.97 12.56 1.59 14.5%
Source: USDA
Soybean to corn price ratio and acreage trends
15
20
25
30
35
'73/74 '76/77 '79/80 '82/83 '85/86 '88/89 '91/92 '94/95 '97/98 '00/01 '03/04 '06/07 '09/10
Areainmln.ha
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Soybeantocornpriceratio
max min Corn SoybeanPrice ratio
range, RHS
Note: Soybean to corn price ratio range is during the period Feb-June in the corresponding year that is
expected to have more influence on the planting decisions than during other periods of the yearFig-1
8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
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Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Mar 2011
-2- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
Declining soybean crush margin in US and China
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jan-
06
Jul-
06
Jan-
07
Jul-
07
Jan-
08
Jul-
08
Jan-
09
Jul-
09
Jan-
10
Jul-
10
Jan-
11
crus
hmarg
ininUS
$per
T
margin in China, active month futures
margin in China, spot month continuation
crush margin in US
Fig-2Source: Reuters andPacrim research
the underlying risk to the soybean supplies growth. At the projected acreage and trend line yield of
43.3 bushel per acre, US soybean ending stocks for MY 2011/12 could drop below 100 mb level even
with marginal increase in demand. The same is summarized Table-2.
Table-2: US soybean balance sheet2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 F Chg (Y-o-Y)
Area planted, mln.acres 75.7 77.5 77.4 76.6 -0.8
Area harvested, mln. acres 74.7 76.4 76.6 75.8 -0.8
Yield, bushels/acre 39.7 44 43.5 43.3 -0.2
Production, mln. bushels 2967 3359 3329 3282 -46.86
Beginning stocks, mb 205 138 151 140 -11
Total supply, mb 3185 3512 3495 3437 -57.86
Crush, mb 1662 1752 1655 1660 5
Exports, mb 1279 1501 1590 1590 0
Ending stocks, mb 138 151 140 87 -52.86
Source: USDA and Pacrim research
Thus it is important for soybean to gain acreage and much would depend upon the relative price
trends of corn and soybean in the coming two months period. Surging crude oil risk premiums with
escalating geopolitical tensions in MENA region and firming up gasoline prices is keeping corn buoyanton expectations of increase in demand from ethanol production. The firmness in corn prices could
extend lateral support to soybean prices in the coming period.
ii) Falling crush margins is a cause of concern
Mean while, the soybean crush margins that were in uptrend till the recent period have turned down
as highlighted in Fig-2 and
will be a cause of concern
from the demand
perspective. The crush
margins in China werecomputed based on the
soybean complex futures
traded on Dalian commodity
exchange and in US were
based on soybean complex
futures traded on CBOT. The
crush margin in China peaked
early in the year 2011 and
was declining since then. The
crush margin in US remained
flat during the same period. The robust crush and import demand from China backed by raising crush
margins was one of the major bullish factor during the recent uptrend. Declining crush margins
indicate the relative expensiveness of soybean compared to its product prices and highlight the need
for product prices to rally at a much faster pace to keep up with the surging soybean prices, failing
which could weigh on soybean prices.
iii) Slowing US soybean export and crush pace.
US soybean accumulated export shipments have reached 34.22 million tons for the week ending Mar
24, 2011 in the current marketing year, were higher compared to same period previous year level of
8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
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Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Mar 2011
-3- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
monthlysoybeancrush,
inmb
5 yr min
5 yr max
2009-102010-11
5 year average
Source: US census and Pacrim research
US monthly soybean crush, in million bushels
Fig-5
33.69 million tons (Fig-3). Though the exports in absolute terms were higher than the previous year
level, lagged behind the previous years pace from the relative perspective. The accumulated exports
till date have accounted for 79.1% of the projected marketing year exports (43.27 million tons), were
less than the previous year same period level of 82.46%. During the same period, the outstanding sales
(export sales not yet shipped) remained high at 6.13 million tons vs. 2.69 million tons in the previous
year (Fig-4) and highlight the underlying risk of shipment cancellations in the event of any major price
correction or availability of competitive supplies from other origins.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17W21 W25 W29 W33W37 W41 W45W49 W53
accumu
latedexp
inm
t
2010-11 2009-105 yr avg 5 yr min5 yr max
Projected exp for 2010-11 at 43.27 mt
Source: USDA and Pacrim research
US soybean weekly export shipment trends, in million tons
Fig-3
0
5
10
15
20
25
W 1 W 5 W 9 W 13 W 17 W 21 W 25 W 29 W 33 W 37 W 41 W 45 W 49 W 53
ou
tstan
dingsa
les
inm
t
2010-11 2009-105 yr avg 5 yr min5 yr max
Projected exp for 2010-11 at 43.27 mt
Source: USDA and Pacrim research
US soybean weekly outstanding sales, in million tons
Fig-4
On the domestic consumption front, US soybean crush has accumulated to 874.3 million bushels til
Feb2011 in the current MY (Sep-Aug) and
need to average 130.1 mb per month in the
remaining six month period to achieve the
projected marketing year crush of 1655 mb.
The soybean crush that begun at above
average pace in the current marketing year
has lost momentum in the recent period as
evident by declining crush volumes during the
past two month period. (Fig-5)
Slowing down exports and domestic crush in
the recent period has led to the expectations
that USDA might downsize the MY export and
crush estimates in the upcoming monthly supply and demand report. The USDA estimates on US
soybean exports and domestic crush in the April2011 bulletin shall assume significance and any
downside revisions shall have negative impact on soybean prices.
iv) Harvest in South America
In the other origins, nearly 70% of the soybean crop was harvested in Brazil and about 7% of the cropwas harvested in Argentina for the week ending Mar 31, 2011. The soybean production in these two
nations is currently anticipated at around 70 million tons and 49.5 million tons respectively. Beyond
the production numbers, it is important to watch for incidents of port workers strike or such logistics
disrupting events that were common to happen in these nations at this point of time.
v) Palm oil production revival in Malaysia and Indonesia and export demand
One of the strongest La Nina on records unfolded in the year 2010 and the extended impact of the
same on palm oil production was still being felt in Malaysia and Indonesia. The Malaysian palm oi
8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
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Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Mar 2011
-4- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
SME, PME and RME price trend and respective price spreads over
ULSD10
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
A
ug-0
7
O
ct-07
D
ec-0
7
F
eb-0
8
A
pr-
08
J
un-0
8
A
ug-0
8
O
ct-08
D
ec-0
8
F
eb-0
9
A
pr-
09
J
un-0
9
A
ug-0
9
O
ct-09
D
ec-0
9
F
eb-1
0
A
pr-
10
J
un-1
0
A
ug-1
0
O
ct-10
D
ec-1
0
F
eb-1
1
Spreads
in
US
$/T
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Price
in
US$/T
SME - ULSD, LHS PME - ULSD,LHS RME - ULSD, LHSSME,CIF,ARA, RHS RME,FOB,ARA, RHS ULSD10, RHSPME,CIF,ARA, RHS
Fig-7Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
production in the first two months of the current calendar year was estimated at 2.15 million tons
compared to same period average production level of 2.5 million tons witnessed during the past two
years. Much would depend upon
the production growth as palm
oil enters into high production
months in the coming period. At
the same time, palm oil export
demand declined in the first two
months of the current calendar
year as buyers remained
sidelined after prices scaled to
multi-month highs earlier in the
year. The exports in the first two
months accumulated to 2.33
million tons vs. 2.75 million tons
witnessed in the same period previous year. Slow demand amid marginal increase in supplies by way of
higher imports aided in marginal increase in the stocks to 1.478 million tons by the end of Feb 2011
from the seven month low figure of 1.41 million tons witnessed in Jan 2011. (Fig-6)
The recovery in palm oil import demand from major destinations like India, China, US and EU shal
assume key as palm oil enters into seasonally higher production months. Barring the influence of other
external factors, any failure in demand to catch up could pressurize the prices in the coming period.
vi) Volatile crude oil prices to extend lateral support.
Persistent geopolitical disturbances and spreading revolutionary waves in the MENA region resulted in
increasing crude oil risk premiums.
Crude oil futures continued to scale
up to new multi month highs and
the accompanying rally in themineral product prices viz. gasoline
and distillates helped to trim down
their discounts to renewable fuels,
which might be an encouraging sign
for discretionary blenders. (Fig-7 and
Fig-8). Without undermining the
possibility of renewable fuels
premium over mineral oils climbing
back to those unattractive levels as
vegetable oil prices might be bid up
on demand expectations, the surgingcrude oil prices shall extend lateral
support to the oilseed complex.
Malaysian palm oil monthly stocks and stocks to export
ratio
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
stocksto
export
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
stocksin
mln.T
Stock to export ratio, LHS stocks, RHS
Source: MPOB, Reuters and Pacrim researchFig-6
8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
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Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Mar 2011
-5- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
Rising gasoline prices relative to Ethanol in US
Line, QRBc1, 05/04/2011, 3.1854
Line, QZEc1, 05/04/2011, 2.695
Price
USD
USG
.1234
1.5
2
Spread, QRBc1, 05/04/2011, 0.4904 Value
USD
USG
.1234
-0.5
0
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011[Delayed]
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
Besides the above discussed factors, the movements in US dollar index would also leave significant
impact on the prices. US dollar index slipped further and hit five month low of 75.47 in the 3rd
week of
current month before recovering marginally. The index has been on a sea saw move since then with in
a narrow range of 76.50 to 75.50. Much would depend upon the reaction to these levels as it hovers
over important support region. Any further decline might be supportive to asset prices, although the
same could not be confirmed on chart at the current juncture.
Spread = Gasoline - Ethanol
Fig-8
8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
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Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd
Market Visuals
Commodities fundamental gaugeGlobal Palm oil Stocks to use vs. Price World Soybean oil Stocks to use vs. Price
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1980/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
stockstouse(%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
30003500
4000
4500
5000
priceinMYR/
all veg oil st ocks to use Palmoil stocks to use
Annual avg price Price max
Price min
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
stockstouse(%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
priceinUSc/lb
a ll v eg oil s to cks to us e So ybn oil s to cks to us e
Annual avg price Price max
Price min
World Soybean Stocks to use vs. Price World soybean meal stocks to use vs. price
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11
stockstouse(%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001400
1600
1800
priceinUSc/bushe
l
Annual avg price Price max Price min
Stocks to use
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11
stockstouse(%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
priceinUS$pershortto
stocks to use ratio Annual avg price
Price max Price min
World Corn Stocks to use vs. Price World Wheat Stocks to use vs. Price
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%40%
45%
50%
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
stockstouse(%)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
priceinUSc/bushel
Stocks to use Annual avg price
Price max Price min
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
stockstouse(%)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
priceinUSc/bushel
Stocks to use Annual avg price
Price max Price min
World Sugar Stocks to use vs. Price World Cotton Stocks to use vs. Price
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
stockstouse(%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
priceinUSc/lb
Stocks to use Annual avg price
Price max Price min
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
stockstouse(%)
20
70
120
170
220
270
priceinUSc/lb
Stocks to use Annual avg price
Price max Price min
Average, Min and Max prices for yr 2011 are Jan 01, 2011 to till date statistics, Source: USDA and Pacrim research
8/6/2019 Commodity Monitor Monthly Mar2011
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Monthly Commodity Market Roundup Mar 2011
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Price charts - AgricultureCPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
Palm oil continous 3 month cumulative vol (3,295.00, 3,383.00, 3,217.00, 3,340.00, +79.0000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (56 .8200, 59.5900, 56.1100, 58.6800, +1.84000)
Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,360.00, 1,432.00, 1,341.00, 1,393.75, +35.5000)
5 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 1
50
Stoc,9
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (27.8000, 28.0000, 26.2800, 27.4400, -0.42000)
Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
50
100
150
200250
300
350
400
450
500
550
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (434.800, 444.500, 430.500, 444 .300, +16.9000)
9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
150
200
250
300
350400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (692.750, 738.250, 659.250, 736.000, +46.5000)
Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (736.000, 774.000, 721.000, 759.500, +26.2500)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
50
100
150
200
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (202.890, 204.000, 192.230, 195.550, -8.94000)
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Price Charts Energy and Metals
Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,
9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (105.430, 108.470, 102.700, 107.940, +2.54000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
1
2
3
4
5
6
78
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (4 .42500, 4.48000, 4.197 00, 4.36200, -0.0410 0)
Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
gold (1,425.85, 1,439.30, 1,409.95, 1,427.88, -0.77002)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
silver (37.2200, 37.9300, 36.4000, 37.6800, +0.39000)
Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
100015002000250030003500400045005000550060006500700075008000850090009500
1000010500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
3MT COPPER USD (9,515.00, 9,590.00, 9,305.00, 9,360.00, -325.000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
3MT ZINC DLR (2 ,362.00, 2,390.00, 2,325.00, 2,390.00, +13.0000)
Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,602.00, 2,653.00, 2,602.00, 2,631.00, -10.0000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
3MT LEAD DLR (2,640.00, 2,698.00, 2,618.00, 2,698.00, +28.0000)
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Indices, weekly charts
DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,96000650070007500
8000850090009500
10000105001100011500120001250013000
135001400014500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
Dow Jones INDU AVERAGE NDX (12,221.20, 12,419.70, 12,173.50, 12,376.70, +156.101)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
S&P 500 INDEX (1,313.80, 1,337.85, 1,305.76, 1,332.41, +18.6100)
FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
FTSE 100 INDEX (5,900.76, 6,014.77, 5,879.90, 6,009.92, +109.160)
99 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,91000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (3,063.04, 3,131.07, 3,044.01, 3,120.47, +49.6299)
Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,985.36, 3,005.78, 2,914.38, 2,967.41, -10.4001)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
5000
10000
15000
20000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (18,799.70, 19,575.20 , 18,799.60, 19 ,420.40, +604 .801)
S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
150
200
250
300
350
400
450500550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
S&P GSCI INDEX (719.480, 732.180, 705.010, 731.444, +12.7150)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
5101520253035404550556065707580859095
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
Volatility Index (18.3100, 19.7800, 16.4400, 17 .4000, -0.51000)
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Currencies, weekly chartsUS Dollar Index spot GBP / USD
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
15 EMA40 EMA 200 E
US DOLLAR INDEX (76.3260, 76.6100, 75.6640, 75.8330, -0.38400)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,91.301.35
1.401.451.501.55
1.601.651.701.751.80
1.851.901.952.002.05
2.102.15
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
UK pound sterling (1.60050, 1.61510, 1.59340, 1.61110, +0.00750)
EUR / USD USD / JPY
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
0.800.850.900.951.001.051.10
1.151.201.251.301.351.401.451.501.551.60
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 E
EuroDollar (1.40450, 1.42450, 1.40190, 1.42280, +0.01470)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
15 EMA40 EMA 200 EMA
Japanese yen (81.3300, 84.7200, 81.3300, 84.0400, +2.73000)
USD / SGD USD / MYR
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20
50
Stoc,9
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
15 EMA 40 EMA200 EMA
Singapore dollar (1.26150, 1.26420, 1.25800, 1.26000, -0.00150)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2
50
Stoc,9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.33.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
15 EMA 40 EMA200 EMA
Malaysian ringgit (3.02500, 3.03000, 3.02140, 3.02550, +0.00050)
USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield
Line, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.4701
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.0446
Yield
.1234
3
4
5
6
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 49.612
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 40.222
Value
.123
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010
Line, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.391
SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 2.786
Yield
.123
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 86.342
StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 74.452
Value
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Macroeconomic gaugeUnemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY
EUR
USD
UK JPY
GermanyLine, QaUSUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.8
Line, QaJPUNR/A, (S1, S2), 28/02 /2011, 4.6
Line, QaXZUNR/A, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 9.9
Line, QaGBUEMPYT/A, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 8
Line, QaDEUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 7.10
Value
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010
US
JPY
GBP
Line, QaGBMFG/CA, (Base Year=2006)(S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 92.9
Line, QaUSMFG/CA, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 90.192
Line, QaJPIPMAN/A, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 96.4
Value
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010
Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence
China
USA
Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 1.267M
Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.242M
Value
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1M
1.2M
1.4M
1.6M
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010
CB Consumer confidence, LHS
ISM services
ISM manufac turing
Line, QaUSNPMI/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 61.2
Line, QaUSNMFGPMI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 57.3
Line, QaUSCONCF/A, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 63.4
Value
35
40
45
50
55
Value
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010
Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %
US
GBP
JPY
EUR
INR
CNY
Line, QJPPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 1.6
Line, QGBPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 0.5
Line, QECBMRO=ECBF, 30/04/2011, 1
Line, QUSPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 3.25
Line, QaINPLR, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 9.5
Line, QaCNLENR1Y, (S1, S2) , 30/04/2011, 6.06
Price
.12
2
4
6
8
10
12
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010
PctCng, QaUSCPI/A, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 2.164
PctCng, QaGBCPI, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 4.34
Line, QaINCPINET, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 8.823
Line, QaXZCPIALL, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 2.6
Line, QaJPCPINY, (S1, S2), 28/02 /2011, 0
Line, QaCNCPIYY, ( S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 4.9
Value
.123
0
3
6
9
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010
Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research
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Traders positions vs. PriceSoybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
price,USc/bushel
'000lo
ts
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
30
40
50
60
price,USc/lb
'000lo
ts
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-400
-200
0
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10
15
20
25
30
price,
USc
/lb
'000lots
Producers Net
Swap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-400
-200
0
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
40
60
80
1
00
120
140
price,
US$/b
arrel
'000lots
Producers NetSwap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
600
800
1000
1200
1400
price,
USD/
t.oz
'000lots
Producers Net
Swap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
price,
USc/
lb
'000lots
Producers Net
Swap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
200
300
400
500
600
700
price,
USc/bus
hel
'000lots
Producers Net
Swap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
50
100
1
50
200
price,
USc/lb
'000lots
Producers Net
Swap dealers NetSpeculative NetClose price,RHS
Source: CFTC and Pacrim research
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Spreads cornerPME vs. ULSD CPO vs. PFAD
Spread, QPME-CIFARA, 05/04/2011, 250.5
SMA, Spread(QPME-CIFARA, QULSD10-C-NWE), 05/04/2011, 347.23
Value
USD
T
.12
0
Line, QPME-CIFARA, 31/03/2011, 1,290
Line, QULSD10-C-NWE, 05/04/2011, 1,039.5
Price
USD
T
.12
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
252.58
Spread, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 320.58
EMA, Spread(QPALM-MYFOB-P1, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1), 05/04/2011, 184.33
Value
USD
T
.12
100
200
Line, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,130.58
Line, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 810
Price
USD
T
.12
600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2000 2010
Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF
Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 05/04/2011, 210
EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 05/04/2011, -41.43
Value
USD
T
.12
-100
0
Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 05/04/2011, 2,090
Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,880
Price
USD
T
.12
500
1,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010
Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 730
SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 05/04/2011, 559.76
Value
USD
T
.12
Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,880
Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,150
Price
USD
T
.12
1,000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010
Soybean vs. Corn Wheat vs. Corn
Ratio, QSc1, 10/04/2011, [email protected]
SMA, Ratio(QSc1, QCc1), 10/04/2011, [email protected]
Value
USc
Bsh
1/8
1@7
2@4
Line, QSc1, 10/04/2011, 1378@4
Line, QCc1, 10/04/2011, 767@2
Price
USc
Bsh
1/8
400
800
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201
1990 2000 2010[Delayed]
Ratio, QWc1, 10/04/2011, [email protected], Ratio(QWc1, QCc1), 10/04/2011, [email protected]
Value
USc
Bsh
1/8
1@4
Line, QWc1, 10/04/2011, 786@4
Line, QCc1, 10/04/2011, 767@2
Price
USc
Bsh
1/8
400
600
1995 2000 2005 2010
1990 2000 2010[Delayed]
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
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Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sourceswe believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed asa recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.