Report PresentationOctober 14, 2015

Community Growth & Projections

Presentation Organization Purpose of Our Work Projection Methodology For Future Housing Units For Future Enrollment

Projection Results For Future Housing Units For Future Enrollment

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Purpose

Purpose of Our Work Understand impact of residential development

and demographic changes on student enrollment Project new housing development through 2020

and 2025 using community and developer plans Apply student/house ratios to translate housing

unit projections into enrollment projections Share projections by neighborhood and

attendance areas, and compare with capacities

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Projection Methodology

Neighborhood Analysis Divided OASD area into 40 different neighborhoods Basis for data collection, analysis, and projections Factors in deciding neighborhood boundaries: 2015-16 school attendance area boundaries Understood neighborhood or “subdivision” boundaries Major roads, rivers, tracks, and other physical barriers U.S. Census “block group” boundariesAn effort to roughly balance housing units

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Neighborhood Analysis

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Housing Projection Methodology

Estimate 2015 total housing in each of 40 neighborhoods Project 2020 & 2025 housing units in each neighborhood by: Analyzing municipal comprehensive plans and subdivision plans Interviewing municipal planners and residential developers Projecting the rate of new housing growth in each neighborhood Understanding housing market expectations and dynamics

Compare housing projections by neighborhood with: Recent building permit activity State or WI household projections for OASD municipalities SEWRPC household projections for Waukesha Co. part of OASD

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Housing Projection Methodology

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Enrollment Projection Methodology

Estimate 2015 student-per-housing unit ratios for each grade group (4K-4, 5-8, 9-12) in each neighborhood Doesn’t include open enrollment out, private, or home schools

Project unique 2020/2025 students-per-housing unit ratios for each grade group in each neighborhood by: “Aging” students through the grade groups Comparing each neighborhood to others at different stages Factoring impact of new housing, including mix Projecting turnover by housing age and recent home sales

Multiply 2020/2025 housing units by 2020/2025 ratios

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Enrollment Projection Methodology

Neigh2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025

1 0.20 0.18 0.15 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.152 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.13 0.11 0.113 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.024 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.02 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.06 0.105 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.08 0.05

Actual 2015 and Projected 2020, 2025 Student per Housing Unit RatiosGrades 4K-4 Grades 5-8 Grades 9-12

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Housing Projections

Our Housing Projections—Overview

Area planners and developers generally optimistic on new housing development over next 10 years

City of Oconomowoc will be likely home for strong majority of new homes, but with greater percentage of multiple-family and empty nester/senior housing

Growth in other communities may be more modest than in the past, due to natural and utility constraints, fewer waterfront lots, and farmland preservation

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Our Housing Projections—Details

We project construction of 1,928 new housing units between 2015 and 2025, or about 190 units per year

New housing growth projected to be focused in current Meadow View, Greenland, and Summit Elementary attendance areas

Ixonia Elementary School attendance area projected for the fewest new housing units of any area over the next 10 years, based on sewer constraints, farmland preservation interests, and developer plans

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Housing Unit Projections by 2015-16 School Attendance Areas

2015-16 Elementary

School Attendance Area

Estimated/Projected Housing Units

Projected Housing Unit

Increase,2015-20252015 2020 2025

Greenland 2,920 3,206 3,338 418Ixonia 1,686 1,782 1,811 125Meadow View 4,272 4,448 4,747 475Park Lawn 3,032 3,197 3,396 364Summit 2,867 3,095 3,413 546TOTAL 14,777 15,728 16,705 1,928

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Housing Unit Projections

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Housing Expectations Beyond 2025

We expect the Oconomowoc area will remain an attractive location to settle and raise a family.

Pabst Farms and Pine Ridge Estates areas expected to remain significant centers of housing growth

May be joined by:Old Highlander Golf Course redevelopment Lands south of Weston Meadows and the railroad tracks Lands north of Nature Hill Intermediate School/Vista Rd

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Relationship Between Housing and Enrollment Projections

What happens in existing housing is far more impactful on future enrollment than future housing Nearly 9 of 10 homes expected by 2025 are already built

Plus, future housing may not generate as many students as new housing did in the past: More multiple-family, empty nester, and senior housing Shifts in household formation and family size (Millennials)

Most every school district requires new housing growth just to maintain steady enrollment

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Student Enrollment Projections

Enrollment Projections—Grades 4K-12 (All Schools)

Between September 2015 and 2025, we project an increase of 544 students in OASD schools

Open-enrollment-in and less open-enrollment-out could increase all enrollment projections shared in this presentation, assuming adequate school capacity exists

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4K-12 Enrollment Projections

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Enrollment Projections—Elementary Schools

All five elementary schools projected to be over current capacities by 2025

Greenland and Meadow View Schools projected to be 100± students over current capacity by 2025

Ixonia School overcapacity issues expected to moderate over next 10 years

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Enrollment Projections—Elementary Schools

OASD Student Enrollment Projected

2015-25 Change

FunctionalCapacity of

School (EUA)

Sept2010

Sept 2015

Projected 2020

Projected 2025

Greenland 375 432 479 510 +78 414Ixonia 233 264 234 214 -50 196Meadow View 476 505 496 530 +25 430Park Lawn 533 430 417 447 +17 444Summit 555 502 479 512 +10 503Total 4K-4 2,172 2,133 2,105 2,213 +80

Projections assume no changes from 2015-16 attendance areas

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4K-4 Enrollment Projections

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Enrollment Projections—Intermediate and High Schools

Enrollment growth over the next ten years is projected to be greatest at the intermediate and high school levels

By 2025, Nature Hill is projected to be about 100 students over capacity, and Silver Lake about 100 under capacity (if no attendance area change)

By 2025, the High School is projected to have more than 300 students above current capacity

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5-8 Enrollment Projections

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9-12 Enrollment Projections

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Enrollment Projections—Intermediate, High, and Total

OASD Student Enrollment Projected

2015-25 Change

FunctionalCapacity of

School (EUA) Sept 2010

Sept 2015

Projected 2020

Projected 2025

Nature Hill IS 748 814 901 973 +159 872Silver Lake IS 648 718 741 775 +57 872Total 5-8 1,396 1,532 1,642 1,749 +216High School 1,427 1,575 1,731 1,823 +248 1,517Total 4K-12 4,995 5,240 5,478 5,785 +544

Projections assume no changes from 2015-16 attendance areas

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Enrollment Projections by School

A Final Word Projected enrollment compared to capacities is

only one factor when preparing a long range school facilities plan Others include school locations, conditions, ages, and

functionality relative to modern programming needs School capacity issues may be permanently and

responsibly addressed in a variety of ways, including new or expanded schools, attendance area shifts, and/or grade group reconfigurations

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