Community Mitigation of Pandemic Influenza What Key Stakeholders Need to Know Poudre School District...
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Community Mitigation Community Mitigation of Pandemic Influenza of Pandemic Influenza What Key Stakeholders Need to Know Poudre School District Board of Education November 13, 2007
Community Mitigation of Pandemic Influenza What Key Stakeholders Need to Know Poudre School District Board of Education November 13, 2007
Community Mitigation of Pandemic Influenza What Key
Stakeholders Need to Know Poudre School District Board of Education
November 13, 2007
Slide 2
What is a flu pandemic? Influenza pandemics occur when an
animal flu virususually a bird flu virusthat has never infected
people alive today changes in ways that it can Infect humans
Spreads easily between them, causing illness throughout the
world.
Slide 3
What is a flu pandemic? Pandemics are natural events that
happen about 3 times per century (in 1918, 1957, and 1968) They can
be mild (not much worse than a bad seasonal flu outbreak) or severe
(killing millions all over the world)
Slide 4
Infectious Disease Deaths in the 20 th century 1918 1957 1968
Deaths per 100,000 per year United States, 1900-1996 JAMA.1999;
281: 61-66.
Slide 5
Currently we cant stop a pandemic We cant stop a pandemic, but
we can lessen the harm through control measures Impact Weeks
Without control measures With control measures
Slide 6
What actions should we take in a pandemic? Mandatory or
voluntary? Which combinations of actions? At what point in the
outbreak? What evidence is there that these actions will work?
Slide 7
Potential Tools in Our Toolbox Our best countermeasure vaccine
will probably be unavailable during the first wave of a pandemic
Antiviral treatment may not be available in sufficient quantities.
The effectiveness of antiviral treatment is not clear.
Slide 8
Recent CDC guidance Community strategies recommended for
pandemic flu when vaccines and antivirals are not available
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/plan/community/community_mitigation.pdf
Slide 9
4 Key Community tools 1.Asking those who are ill to remain at
home 2.Asking household members of ill persons to remain at home
3.Child social distancing closure of schools and places children
gather 4.Workplace/community Adult social distancing
Slide 10
Control measures will be based on pandemic severity Severity
measured by case-fatality rate (# that die / # that become ill) as
determined in region where a pandemic begins (likely not CO, nor
even USA) Pandemic Severity Index created to help communicate level
of danger to the public, similar to the well-known hurricane
index.
Slide 11
For comparison, the case-fatality rate of the 1918 pandemic was
2.5% in the U.S. the case-fatality rate of H5N1 in 2006 was
69%
Slide 12
Slide 13
Aggressive social distancing Social distancingEncourage good
hygiene Workplace protections RecommendedConsiderNot
recommendedCommunity social distancing RecommendedConsiderNot
recommendedDismissing classes RecommendedConsiderNot
recommendedVoluntary Quarantine Recommended Voluntary Isolation
1%-2% or higher0.1 -
66 million No children 18 million >= age12 9 million Non-
working adult 8 million 5 million Labor Status of Households (U.S.)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Current Population
Survey, 2003 Annual Social and Economic Supplement
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2003.html
Slide 33
Possible solutions for working parents Family or friends to
provide care Volunteers to provide care to small numbers of
children (no more than 6) Teleworking option for parents Shift
changes allowing parents to be home at different times
Slide 34
Possible solutions for child instruction Use email, web
lessons, mailed assignments, cable TV, phone calls to continue
learning Provide parents with home- schooling materials appropriate
for their child
Slide 35
Possible solutions of loss of school meals Weekly parent
pick-up or home delivery of food items for child Other community
food providers
Slide 36
Possible solutions for state funding of schools Governor has
the power to waive state statutes and regulations in emergency
School districts should work now with legislators and governor to
ensure funding of school operations if severe pandemic sends
children home
Slide 37
Community Mitigation Summary Ill persons should be isolated
Voluntary home quarantine for household contacts Social distancing
measures Dismissing students may have profound impact Workplace
social distancing and liberal leave NOT closure (for most)
Cancellation of public events, closure of entertainment venues
(movies, sports,etc.), even church services may be cancelled
Slide 38
Key Stakeholders must Understand reasons for public health
recommendations Participate in discussions about such interventions
with a goal of reaching consensus Work together to do what need to
be done to save lives.
Slide 39
Charlie, 45 Jessie, 40 Florence, 19 Tommy, 16 Harry, 10 Bobbie,
8 Davie, 6 Willie, 4 A Larimer County family -- all 8 died in a
10-day period, Oct Nov. 1918