Company Update Singapore Monthly - StocksBNB...2018/07/16 · Banyan Tree Holdings Limited (Accumulate, Last: S$0.53, TP: S$0.73) Takeaways from our recent marketing event Lapse of

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16 July 2018, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar

Company Update Banyan Tree Holdings

Sector Update S-REITs

Land Transport Sector

Singapore Monthly

July 2018

The Phillip 20 June Monthly Review



Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“PSR”) has no

reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this

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2



Banyan Tree Holdings Limited

Takeaways from our recent marketing event

Tan Dehong

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

16 July 2018



Banyan Tree Holdings Limited (Accumulate, Last: S$0.53, TP: S$0.73) Takeaways from our recent marketing event

Lapse of options granted to Accor and Vanke for the subscription of an additional 5% stake in BTH each

Capital controls for Vanke. Accor reasons less clear. Each still hold 5% of BTH shares each, purchased at 60c/share.

Management contracts remain key growth catalysts from the partnerships

No official announcements so far, but Group does not typically announce such signings even for previous contracts.

28 new hotels slated to open in next 3 years (Excl. Vanke/Accor, mostly on mgmt contracts).

Other benefits from the partnerships with Accor/Vanke

Lower commissions to Online Travel Agencies (12-15% for big operators eg Accor, 20+% for smaller operators).

>50% of Chinese buyers for Group’s Phuket development properties in 1Q18 were from Vanke’s network of contacts.

Strong growth in tourism still expected in Thailand, largest contributor to Group revenue by Geography

5M18 international tourist arrivals up 13% YoY vs 4% same period last year.

China remains most important group of tourists for Group

44% of total room revenue for FY17. Korea highlighted as another fast growing segment.

4



S-REITs Monthly

Monthly Tracker: July 2018

Tara Wong


16 July 2018



FTSE S-REIT Index declined 3.3% YTD



S-REIT yield spread compressed 30bps YTD in June

FTSE Straits Times REIT Index Yield Spread over 10YSGS Fed Fund Rates vs SG rates

S-REIT dividend yield: 5.48%

10YSGS yield: 2.53%

Current yield spread of 294bps is below the -1SD range (historical average: 361bps)

Bloomberg consensus forecasts for the 10YSGS yield at the end 2018 and 2019 are

at 2.62% and 2.88%, respectively. This will be a headwind for S-REITs.

3-month SOR: 1.59%

Higher near-term financing costs largely mitigated as 31 out of 40 of

all S-REITs, have at least 70% hedged against interest rates

Bloomberg consensus forecasts for the 3-month SOR at the end of 2018

and 2019 are at 1.78% and 2.17%, respectively



Sub-sector Snapshot

Retail

Retail sales (excluding motor vehicle sales) inched up just 2.3% YoY in May – segment

breakdown: supermarkets (-0.8%), F&B (-0.8%), department stores (+2.7%), fashion (+6.8%)

Intensifying e-commerce competition: Taobao’s first home pop-up store in SG in June,

Amazon’s launch of Prime Day in SG in July.

Commercial

Two major transactions: CapitaLand Commercial Trust’s (CCT) divestment of Twenty Anson

and Frasers Commercial Trust’s divestment of 55 Market Street.

CCT demonstrated effective capital recycling through its higher entry yield than from its

acquisition of Asia Square Tower 2.

Co-working expansion to continue. Only upcoming Grade A Office supply is 18 Robinson.

Industrial

ARA Asset Management acquired remaining shares in the REIT manager and property

manager of Cache Logistics Trust (Cache) from CWT, thus ending the sponsor-REIT

relationship between CWT and Cache.

Mapletree Logistics Trust acquiring five modern, ramp-up logistics properties in Singapore from

CWT for about S$778.3mn (these properties were formerly in the ROFR portfolio from CWT to

Cache).

Hospitality

Uptick of 5% YoY in visitor arrivals in April. RevPAR rose 6% YoY, to S$192 in April.

We anticipate a gradual flow of incoming tourists following the Trump-Kim summit in June,

which had heightened global awareness of Singapore as a tourist destination.



Remain NEUTRAL on S-REITs sector

Top-down view

We like the Commercial, Industrial and Hospitality sub-sectors due to

tapering supply after the surge in supply in the prior two to three years.

Cautious on the Retail sub-sector as retail sales and shopper footfall both

remain lacklustre, due to e-commerce competition.

Tactical bottom-up view

For investors with concerns on rising interest rates, look for REITs with:

1)Low gearing

2)High-interest coverage

3)Long weighted average debt to maturity

4)A high proportion of debt on fixed interest rates

……such as CapitaLand Retail China Trust (ACCUMULATE, TP:S$1.66),

Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust*, Ascendas REIT (ACCUMULATE,

TP:S$2.91), and Keppel-KBS US REIT* * Currently not under PSR coverage

PSR RATING PSR TARGET PRICE (S$)

FIRST REAL ESTATE INVT TRUST NEUTRAL 1.31

CAPITALAND MALL TRUST NETURAL 2.03

FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST NEUTRAL 2.14

CAPITALAND RETAIL CHINA TRUST ACCUMULATE 1.66

DASIN RETAIL TRUST BUY1 0.97

CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TRUST ACCUMULATE 1.88

ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST ACCUMULATE 2.91

MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST NEUTRAL 2.09

KEPPEL DC REIT ACCUMULATE 1.51

CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST ACCUMULATE 0.91

Source: PSR 1 Covered by PSR under the ‘SGX Stockfacts’ scheme

S-REITs under our coverage



Mkt. Cap.

(S$mn)Price (S$) PSR RATING

PSR

TARGET

PRICE (S$)

P/NAVTrailing

yield (%)

Total

Returns YTD

(%)

Gearing (%)

Approximate %

of debt on fixed

rate

ROE

(%)

Average

borrowing

cost (%)

% debt expiring

in 2018/current

FY

% debt expiring

in 2019/next FYYear End

Healthcare

PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE 1,658 2.740 1.56 4.8 (4.9) 38.0 99.0 9.6 1.0 4.0 7.0 December

FIRST REAL ESTATE INVT TRUST 1,036 1.320 NEUTRAL 1.31 1.30 6.5 (3.5) 33.6 70.0 9.0 4.1 41.6 49.0 December

Average 1.44 5.63 -4.14 35.80 84.50 2.55 22.80

Hospitality

ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST 2,419 1.120 0.92 6.3 (7.1) 36.2 81.0 6.5 2.4 13.0 5.0 December

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS 1,950 1.620 1.08 5.7 (1.4) 32.6 59.1 8.3 2.1 0.0 51.3 December

FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST 1,232 0.660 0.76 5.9 (8.6) 34.4 41.6 1.2 2.5 14.6 12.5 December

OUE HOSPITALITY TRUST 1,428 0.785 1.03 6.5 (6.1) 38.8 71.0 5.6 2.5 0.0 0.0 December

FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST 1,290 0.690 0.87 7.2 (10.5) 33.0 88.5 11.1 2.8 15.0 55.4 September

ASCENDAS HOSPITALITY TRUST 900 0.795 0.87 7.4 (3.9) 33.2 77.2 2.1 2.7 31.6 0.0 March

Average 0.89 6.86 (7.31) 34.70 69.73 2.50 12.37

Retail

CAPITALAND MALL TRUST 7,523 2.120 NETURAL 2.03 1.08 5.3 1.8 34.2 97.0 9.8 3.2 15.9 11.7 December

MAPLETREE NORTH ASIA COMM 3,649 1.160 0.84 3.9 (2.0) 39.3 75.0 15.3 2.7 0.0 3.0 March

SPH REIT 2,570 1.000 1.06 5.5 (2.2) 25.4 85.3 6.5 2.8 21.7 14.7 September

FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST 2,037 2.200 NEUTRAL 2.14 1.09 5.5 0.9 29.0 55.0 10.8 2.4 12.0 14.7 September

STARHILL GLOBAL REIT 1,429 0.655 0.71 7.1 (13.5) 35.3 99.0 5.2 3.1 0.0 5.8 June

CAPITALAND RETAIL CHINA TRUST 1,445 1.490 ACCUMULATE 1.66 0.89 6.8 (8.8) 28.4 80.0 9.5 2.5 0.0 20.0 December

LIPPO MALLS INDONESIA RETAIL 912 0.320 1.06 10.1 (16.6) 33.7 47.0 6.3 N.A. 38.8 0.0 December

BHG REIT 361 0.720 0.85 7.5 0.6 32.5 45.0 5.1 3.7 32.6 8.8 December

DASIN RETAIL TRUST 486 0.875 BUY1 0.97 0.57 8.2 4.2 31.5 NA NA 4.8 NA NA December

SASSEUR REIT 832 0.705 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA December

Average 0.90 6.68 (4.20) 32.14 72.91 3.15 17.11

Commercial

CAPITALAND COMMERCIAL TR 6,550 1.750 ACCUMULATE 1.88 0.99 4.8 (5.4) 37.9 90.0 10.2 2.7 0.0 8.2 December

SUNTEC REIT 4,902 1.840 0.87 5.4 (14.2) 36.6 65.0 4.2 2.7 6.0 24.5 December

KEPPEL REIT 3,919 1.150 0.81 4.9 (7.4) 38.6 77.0 3.5 2.8 0.0 22.0 December

MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TR 4,646 1.610 1.08 5.6 1.5 34.5 78.9 13.8 2.8 6.0 11.0 March

FRASERS COMMERCIAL TRUST 1,272 1.440 0.94 6.7 0.6 35.3 82.2 7.5 3.0 22.0 19.6 September

OUE COMMERCIAL REIT 1,067 0.690 0.76 8.9 (1.1) 40.5 73.7 10.2 3.4 35.2 0.0 December

MANULIFE US REIT 1,092 0.860 1.07 3.0 (1.9) 34.1 100.0 8.9 2.8 0.0 23.5 December

KEPPEL-KBS US REIT 545 0.865 NA NA (4.4) 33.6 75.0 NA 3.4 0.0 0.0 December

CROMWELL EUROPEAN REIT 921 0.585 NA NA 5.4 36.8 86.0 NA 2.1 0.0 6.0 December

IREIT GLOBAL 494 0.785 1.15 7.4 4.4 40.5 89.8 NA 2.0 0.6 49.6 December

Average 0.90 5.83 (6.20) 36.39 80.23 2.94 8.65 13.60

Industrial

ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TR 7,941 2.710 ACCUMULATE 2.91 1.28 5.9 3.0 34.4 71.9 8.1 2.9 8.0 13.9 March

MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST 3,734 1.980 NEUTRAL 2.09 1.34 5.9 0.4 33.1 85.1 11.3 2.9 15.2 17.8 March

MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST 4,119 1.270 1.15 6.1 0.4 37.7 78.0 14.9 2.4 0.0 10.0 March

KEPPEL DC REIT 1,838 1.360 ACCUMULATE 1.51 1.42 5.3 (0.6) 37.4 80.0 6.3 2.1 13.0 19.0 December

AIMS AMP CAPITAL INDUSTRIAL 953 1.390 1.01 7.4 4.7 33.5 88.1 6.7 3.6 0.0 16.2 March

CACHE LOGISTICS TRUST 836 0.780 ACCUMULATE 0.91 1.11 8.2 (5.4) 38.5 62.6 3.0 3.5 21.4 32.9 December

SOILBUILD BUSINESS SPACE REIT 696 0.660 1.04 8.4 2.5 40.2 70.1 (4.0) 3.2 30.9 8.3 December

SABANA SHARIAH COMP IND REIT 458 0.435 0.80 7.6 14.7 38.1 70.8 (3.9) 4.0 0.0 35.4 December

VIVA INDUSTRIAL TRUST 871 0.895 1.18 8.1 (2.6) 40.6 82.8 5.3 4.0 18.7 0.0 December

ESR REIT 831 0.525 0.77 7.0 (4.0) 30.0 92.6 0.2 3.8 30.8 21.3 December

EC WORLD REIT 556 0.705 0.77 8.4 (3.5) 28.9 100.0 6.6 4.5 N.A. N.A. December

FRASERS LOGISTICS & INDUSTRIAL 2,127 1.060 1.18 6.6 (3.2) 30.5 85.0 8.1 2.9 0.0 27.6 September

Average 1.07 7.20 (0.56) 35.24 80.58 3.31 12.55 18.40

Source: Bloomberg (Updated 13 July 2018), Debt data from latest available Company Results, PSR1

Covered by PSR on the SGX Stockfacts Scheme

S-REITs Universe



Richard Leow


16 July 2018

Land Transport Sector

TDVLs issued maintains its growth trajectory



Highlights

12

Maintain Overweight on Land Transport sector: Positive industry restructuring and

worst is over for the Taxi industry

Maintain Accumulate on ComfortDelGro Corp; unchanged target price of $2.69

(last close $2.35)



What is the news?

13

Toyota Motor Corp will invest US$1 billion in Grab. Direct impact to its ride-hailing

business appears to be limited for now, as the investment will go towards improving

Grab's capabilities in online to offline (O2O) services, such as GrabFood and GrabPay

LTA published motor vehicle population and Taxi Driver Vocational Licence (TDVL)

data for May 2018

Deadline for attaining Private Hire Car Driver's Vocational Licence (PDVL) has lapsed

and only about 22,000 drivers or 51% of applicants have passed the test.

The Competition and Consumer Commission of Singapore (CCCS) has determined

the Grab-Uber merger to be in breach of competition laws.

Figure 1: Taxi and Rental cars population, Taxi Driver Vocational Licence (TDVL) data

Y/E Dec May-18 May-17 YoY Dec-17 YTD Apr-18 MoM

Taxi 21,237 26,172 -18.9% 23,140 -8.2% 21,436 -0.9%

Rental cars 68,341 61,732 10.7% 68,083 0.4% 68,496 -0.2%

Val id TDVL holders 96,090 98,839 -2.8% 96,085 0.0% 95,895 0.2%May-18 May-17 YoY 5M18 5M17 YoY

TDVL issued 307 194 58.2% 1,675 832 101%

Source: Bloomberg, LTA, PSR



How do we view this?

14

The Positives

Taxi population continues to contract, but the rate of decline shows sign of bottoming

Rental cars YoY growth continues to taper down, and population remains stagnant

Measures by CCCS expected to have limited impact, as the 51% of private-hire

drivers passing the PDVL appears to be the bottleneck instead

Momentum for TDVL issued has been maintained

The Negatives

Grab is likely to maintain its dominant position in the ride-hailing space, thus exerting

credible competition to the Taxi industry

What would make us turn negative on the sector?

Resurgence of cheap fares and higher driver incentives

Further regulatory action that undermines the nascent recovery in the Taxi industry



Investment Action

15

Maintain Overweight on Land Transport sector

Positive industry restructuring: exit of Uber from ride-hailing

Worst is over for Taxi industry

Maintain Accumulate on ComfortDelGro Corp; unchanged target price of $2.69

(last close $2.35)



Appendix

16

Figure 2: CCCS's Proposed Directions

Proposed remedies Our view

a. The removal of exclusivity obligations, lock-in periods and/or termination fees on

all drivers who drive on Grab’s ride-hailing platform and/or who rent from Grab

Rentals, Lion City Rentals or rental partners of Grab so as to increase choices for

drivers and riders and improve market contestability;

Fair.

b. The removal of Grab’s exclusivity arrangements with any taxi/CPHC fleet in

Singapore so as to increase choices for drivers and riders and improve market

contestability;

Fair.

c. The maintenance of Grab’s pre-Transaction pricing algorithm and driver

commission rates until competition is revived in the market so as to alleviate the

adverse pricing effects on riders and drivers arising from the Transaction;

Onerous. Grab shoud not be expected

to continue providing its service at an

artificial price-point that is not

sustainable.

d. Requiring Uber to sell Lion City Rentals (or all or any part of Lion City Rentals’

assets) to any potential competitor who makes a reasonable offer and preventing Uber

from selling Lion City Rentals (or all or any part of Lion City Rentals’ assets) to Grab

without CCCS’s prior approval. This prevents Grab and Uber from aligning Lion City

Rentals with Grab to the disadvantage of Grab’s potential competitors, and will

facil itate a new entrant’s access to a vehicle fleet.

Irrelevant. Proposed remedy "a."

removes exclusivity obligations

between drivers and rental car

companies. Also, there are no hurdles

preventing a potential new entrant

from buying a fleet of vehicles

elsewhere.

Source: CCCS, PSR



Appendix

17

Taxi population continues to contract, but YoY contraction shows sign of bottoming

Rental cars YoY growth continues to taper down, and population remains stagnant

Figure 3: Monthly Taxi and Rental cars population

Source: Bloomberg, LTA, PSR

(40%)

(20%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Taxi, LHS Rental cars, LHS

Taxi YoY, RHS Rental cars YoY, RHS



Appendix

18

Sustained spike in TDVL issued

Figure 4: Monthly No. of TDVL issued

Source: LTA, PSR

(100%)

(50%)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

TDVL issued, LHS YoY, RHS



Appendix

19

Number of valid TDVL holders YTD remain unchanged

Figure 5: Monthly total No. of valid TDVL holders

Source: LTA, PSR

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Valid TDVL holders, LHS YoY, RHS



Appendix

20

Only about 22,000 drivers or 51% of applicants have passed the test and attained

their PDVLs

Figure 6: Status of 42,900 PDVL applicants

Source: LTA, PSR

Passed the test51%

Did not complete course

40%Completed course, but failed the test

7%

Completed course, but did not take the test

2%



Paul Chew


16 July 2018

Singapore Monthly: July 2018

Tail Risk to Base Case



Singapore Monthly: July 2018

•Macro/Sector: Tail Risk to Base Case

Trade War will get worse: suppose to be only posturing; US$400bn China tariffs plus US$200bn auto

tariffs; NAFTA negotiations

Trump will be emboldened: US jobs market + Fiscal stimulus support + Firm approval ratings; RMB weaker

Global economy : still expanding but uncertainty as trade tensions escalate

Near term: market may perk up because of earnings season and a lag before actual tariff implementation

Property: Another tail risk surfaces; surprise because cycle early + HDB prices moving sideways

Banking: improving margins + volume + wealth management; 2Q18 results from early August

REIT: domestic momentum + relative SGD strength + interest rates priced in + bond proxy from inflation

Coal: Power consumption in China YTD18 +9.5% is fastest pace in 7-years; domestic production down

•BUY sustainable yield, Overweight cyclicals (banks, consumer)

Cut STI target: From 3900 to 3700, lower end of target prices as we face tariff headwinds

Yield: AsianPayTV, Ascendas REIT, CCT, CRCT, Cache, Keppel DC Reit,

Banking: OCBC, UOB, DBS, SGX

Consumer: Laggard beneficiary – Sheng Siong, Dairy Farm, Thai Beverage, F&N

Transport: Comfort DelGro as non-taxi businesses pick up pace and competition subsides



Trade War: Trump is emboldened

• Approval rating is similar to

when Obama was in office in

terms of weeks in office

• Consumer confidence and

Small business optimism index

near 17-year and 45-year

highs

• US Jobs still robust

• If trade deficit is the target,

unlikely to be resolved unless

aggregate demand collapse

Source: www.rasmussenreports.com



Trade War: ‘Good and Easy To Win’, Trump (Mar18)

• Jan18 Trump impose tariffs due to s.201 Imports cause injury to US industries

• Feb18 China retaliates with Sorghum tariffs

Round #1 :Oct17

Solar Panel & Washing Machine (~$10bn)

• Feb18 Dept. Of Commerce release report under s.232 threaten National Security

• 23Mar18 tariff goes into effect; 2Apr18 China retaliates; 1June18 Allies affected

Round # 2: Apr17

Steel & Aluminium (~$488bn)

•22Mar18 Report released of China unfair trade practice under s301

•15Jun18 List of products release (intermediate/equipment) and effective 6July

•15Jun18 China retaliates with tariffs on $45bn imports soybeans, food, petroleum, etc

Round # 3: Aug17

Unfair Trade & IP (~$50bn)

•s.232 investigation whether auto and auto parts impair US national security; 25% tariffs

•19-20Jul18 Public hearings; 22Jun18 Trump threat on imported European autos

Round # 4: May18

Auto and auto parts (~$200bn)

•18Jun18 Trump direct USTR for additional 10% tariff on $200bn Chinese imports with another $200bn more if China retaliates again.

•10Jul18 USTR draw list of US$200bn imports, public hearings Aug20-23, early Sep18 implementation; US imported around US$500bn from China in 2017

Round # 5: Jun18

All China Imports ($400bn)

• Economic impact guesstimate

= 0.24* x $700bn = $168bn or

0.8% of US GDP

• IMF study 10% tariffs = 1% of

global GDP

• NAFTA negotiations after mid-

term election

• Disrupt electronic supply

chains but positive for SE Asia

• Authority to add or subtract

• s201/s301 of Trade Act and

s232 Trade Expansion Act

* Average of 12 studies and $700bn is based on $480bn

Chinese imports plus $180bn exports to China plus $40bn

steel imports



Global Economy: Stable in 2Q18

• Global PMIs better in 2Q18:

1Q18 Global PMI drop from

54.5 to 53.3 (-1.2 pts); 2Q18 it

drop from 53.3 to 53 (-0.3pts)

• Asian exports still healthy:

2Q18 +8.9% YoY (1Q18:

+9.8% YoY)

• US Jobs still robust: 1H18

+215k jobs/month (1H17

+184k jobs)

• China not stellar but stable:

FAI YTDMay18 +6.0%

(YTDMay17 +8.6%)

Source: CEIC, Markitt, PSR



Phillip Absolute 10 model portfolio

• Weakest performance this year; sell-down across all stocks except Dairy-Farm and Micro-Mechanics

• YTD performance hurt by:

1) AsianPayTV: 1Q18 results disappointed but there is valuation and yield support

2) Geo Energy: 1Q18 production hurt by weather but expect production recovery and healthy coal prices

Historical Performance

Company 1 Mth 3 Mth YTD Rating Target Share % Mkt Cap PE P/BV Dividend ROE

Perf. Perf. Perf. Price Price Upside (US$ m) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY17 Yield FY17

Yield

Asian PayTV -5.8% -23.6% -31.4% Buy 0.52 0.41 28% 428 15.7 13.2 13.5 0.5 16.0% 2.1%

Ascendas REIT -0.4% 0.4% -2.9% Accumulate 2.91 2.64 10% 5,693 15.7 16.0 15.7 1.2 6.1% 8.1%

Growth

Chip Eng Seng -9.2% -14.7% -13.8% Buy 1.21 0.84 44% 384 13.4 10.9 12.7 0.7 4.8% 4.5%

Dairy Farm - US$ 2.6% 10.6% 11.8% Buy 9.83 8.79 12% 11,890 29.5 22.4 20.1 7.0 3.2% 25.3%

OCBC -7.2% -9.2% -6.1% Accumulate 14.90 11.64 28% 35,854 11.8 10.4 9.4 1.2 3.2% 11.2%

Geo Energy -4.4% -4.4% -18.9% Buy 0.41 0.22 91% 210 5.7 4.7 3.7 2.4 4.7% 20.6%

Micro-Mechanics 0.6% -11.8% -15.2% Buy 2.30 1.79 28% 183 16.9 13.6 11.4 4.4 5.0% 33.4%

Re-rating Plays

Banyan Tree -6.2% -7.8% -6.2% Accumulate 0.73 0.53 38% 328 1.6 1.6 1.5 0.7 1.9% 5.4%

CapitaLand -8.7% -11.5% -10.5% Accumulate 4.19 3.16 33% 9,700 8.5 13.3 12.8 0.7 3.8% 8.1%

Comfort DelGro -4.5% 14.6% 18.7% Accumulate 2.69 2.35 14% 3,744 17.5 16.3 16.2 1.9 4.4% 10.8%

Average -4.3% -5.8% -7.4% 33% 68,413 13.6 12.2 11.7 2.1 5.3% 12.9%



The Phillip 20

June Monthly Review

Jeremy Ng


16 July 2018



28

Straits Times Index – Technical Analysis

Source: Bloomberg, PSR

STI Daily Chart - Bullish

•3200 psychological support holding price up

•Bullish break above the immediate downtrend line with oversold RSI mean reversion signals a

rebound higher next

-4.65 in June 2018 Red line = 20 period moving average, Blue line = 60 period moving average, Green line = 200 period moving average

Next target:

•3341

•3462



29

New Entries for June 18


The Phillip 20 Portfolio - June new entries as of 13 July

Company Name Ticker L Entry Date Entry price Stop Loss Last price Current gain/loss (%)

CHINA SUNSINE CH8 Long 1-Jun-18 1.550 1.410 1.420 -8.39%

JAPFA UD2 Long 5-Jun-18 0.580 0.505 0.675 16.38%

DBS D05 Long 6-Jun-18 29.140 27.840 26.210 -10.05%

HAW PAR H02 Long 8-Jun-18 13.690 12.810 12.790 -6.57%

SINGTEL Z74 Long 12-Jun-18 3.260 3.150 3.270 0.31%

CITYDEV C09 Long 19-Jun-17 11.320 10.560 9.700 -14.31%

WING TAI W05 Long 28-Jun-18 1.970 1.870 2.010 2.03%

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30

Realised P&L for May 18


The Phillip 20 Portfolio - Realised P&L for June 2018

Company Name Ticker L Entry Date Entry price Exit date Exit Price P&L

MEMTECH INTL BOL Long 10-May-18 1.330 12-Jun-18 1.190 -10.53%

DBS D05 Long 6-Jun-18 29.140 18-Jun-18 27.840 -4.46%

WING TAI W05 Long 15-May-18 2.160 18-Jun-18 1.960 -9.26%

CHIP ENG SENG C29 Long 12-Dec-17 0.945 18-Jun-18 0.880 -6.88%

SINGTEL Z74 Long 12-Jun-18 3.260 21-Jun-18 3.150 -3.37%

FRENCKEN E28 Long 20-Jul-17 0.525 26-Jun-18 0.445 -15.24%

Jardine C&C C07 Long 14-May-18 34.200 29-Jun-18 31.590 -7.63%

JAPFA UD2 Long 5-Jun-18 0.580 27-Jun-18 0.620 6.90%

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31

Monthly performance




32

Total return since May 2017, as of 29 June 2018




33

Watchlist

Banyan Tree SATS

CSE Global Sheng Siong

China Sunsine Tianjin ZX USD

DairyFarm USD Tuan Sing

DBS United Engineers

Hi-P UnUsUal

HMI UOB

Hong Leong Fin UMS

IFAST UOL

JB Foods United Engineers

Man oriental USD Wing Tai

Moya Asia Yongnam

OCBC Y Venture



34

Current Portfolio


The Phillip 20 Portfolio - Our top technical picks as of 29 June 2018 Company Name Ticker L Entry Date Entry price Stop Loss Last price Current gain/loss (%)

800 SUPER 5TG Long 13-Feb-18 1.110 0.990 1.060 -4.50%

ALLIED TECH A13 Long 27-Apr-18 0.049 0.041 0.051 4.08%

BREADTALK 5DA Long 2-Nov-17 0.823 0.735 1.190 44.68%

CITYDEV C09 Long 19-Jun-17 11.320 10.560 10.930 -3.45%

COMFORTDELGRO C52 Long 9-May-18 2.280 1.950 2.350 3.07%

CHINA SUNSINE CH8 Long 1-Jun-18 1.550 1.410 1.550 0.00%

CHINA EVERBRIGHT U9E Long 2-May-18 0.430 0.385 0.400 -6.98%

GEO ENERGY RES RE4 Long 17-May-18 0.240 0.205 0.215 -10.42%

GENTING SING G13 Long 9-Apr-18 1.160 0.990 1.220 5.17%

HAW PAR H02 Long 8-Jun-18 13.690 12.810 13.420 -1.97%

JB FOODS BEW Long 10-Apr-18 0.590 0.490 0.590 0.00%

OCBC O39 Long 9-Feb-18 12.360 11.430 11.640 -5.83%

SINGPOST S08 Long 13-Mar-18 1.400 1.210 1.260 -10.00%

SINOSTAR PEC C9Q Long 28-Nov-17 0.194 0.149 0.205 5.67%

WING TAI W05 Long 28-Jun-18 1.970 1.870 1.990 1.02%

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd (“PSR”) has no reason to believe are

unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this presentation are based on such

information and are expressions of belief only. PSR has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such

information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject

to change, and PSR shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in

connection therewith. In no event will PSR be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the

information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

This presentation is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of

any particular person.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial

situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.

35



36


Paul Chew, Head of Research

Pei Sai Teng, Macro

Jeremy Ng, Technical Analysis

Soh Lin Sin, Consumer | Healthcare

Richard Leow, Transport | REITs (Industrial)

Tan Dehong, REITs (Commercial, Retail, Healthcare) | Property

Tara Wong, REITs (Commercial, Retail, Healthcare) | Property

Ho Kang Wei, US Equity

Chen Guangzhi, Oil and Gas | Energy

Tin Min Ying, Banking & Finance

Alvin Chia, Research Associate

Mohamed Amiruddin, Operations Exec

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Documents

Company Update Singapore Monthly - StocksBNB...2018/07/16 · Banyan Tree Holdings Limited (Accumulate, Last: S$0.53, TP: S$0.73) Takeaways from our recent marketing event Lapse of