Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2814691
ReportfromtheCrimePreventionResearchCenter
ConcealedCarryPermitHoldersAcrosstheUnitedStates:2016
JohnR.Lott,Jr.
President
484-802-5373
Formoreinformationcontact:
NikkiGoeser
CommunicationsDirector
(615)336-2851
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2814691
2
TableofContents
SUMMARY 3
BACKGROUND 4
ExplainingtheNumberofPermitsIssued 10
DeterringCrime 10
TheChangingCompositionofPermitHolders 12
PERMITHOLDERSAREEXTREMELYLAW-ABIDING 15
WHYARETHENUMBEROFPERMITSINCREASING 16
NUMBERSOFPERMITSBYSTATE 17
PERCENTOFADULTPOPULATIONWITHPERMITS
BYSTATE 20
PermitFeesbyState 23
NOTES 27
DATASOURCESFORNUMBEROFPERMITS 31
AppendixonAcademicResearch 36
AcademicAdvisoryBoard 39
3
Summary
DuringPresidentObama’sadministration,thenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitshassoaredtoover14.5million–a215%increasesince2007.Amongthefindingsofourreport:
■ Theincreaseinthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitslastyearsetanotherrecord,increasingby1.73million.Thatisslightlygreaterthanpreviousrecordof1.69millionsetthelastyear.
■ 6.06%ofthetotaladultpopulationhasapermit.■ Intenstates,morethan10%ofadultshaveconcealedhandgunpermits.
Indianahasthehighestrate—15%.SouthDakotaisclosebehindwith14.7%.
■ Florida,Pennsylvania,andTexaseachhaveoveramillionresidentswhoareactivepermitholders.
■ Inanother11states,apermitisnolongerrequiredtocarryinallorvirtuallyallofthestate.Thusthegrowthinpermitsdoesnotprovideafullpictureoftheoverallincreaseinconcealedcarry.
■ Between2012and2016,instatesthatprovidedatabygender,thenumberofwomenwithpermitshasincreasedtwiceasquicklyasthenumberofmenwithpermits.
■ Someevidencesuggeststhatpermit-holdingisincreasingabout75%morequicklyamongminoritiesthanamongwhites.
■ Between2007and2015,murderratesfellfrom5.6to4.7(preliminaryestimate)per100,000.Thisrepresentsa16%drop.Overallviolentcrimefellby18percent.Meanwhile,thepercentageofadultswithpermitshassoaredby190%.
■ Regressionestimatesshowasignificantassociationbetweenincreasedpermitownershipandadropinmurderandviolentcrimerates.Eachonepercentagepointincreaseinratesofpermit-holdingisassociatedwitharoughly2.5percentdropinthemurderrate.Thisholdstrueevenafteraccountingforthenumberofpolicepercapita,demographics,andthepercentageofthepopulationthatisincarcerated,
■ Concealedhandgunpermitholdersareextremelylaw-abiding.InFloridaandTexas,permitholdersareconvictedofmisdemeanorsandfeloniesatone-sixthoftherateatwhichpoliceofficersareconvicted.
4
Background
“Ithinkthatwe’vegottoreigninwhathasbecomeanalmostarticleoffaiththatanybodycanhaveagunanywhere,anytime.AndIdon’tbelievethatisinthebestinterestofthevastmajorityofpeople....carryinggunsinpublicplaces....”
HillaryClinton,May6,2016attheNationalCouncilforBehavioralHealth
"Youcansaywhatyouwant,butiftheyhadguns--ifourpeoplehadguns,iftheywereallowedtocarry--itwouldhavebeenamuch,muchdifferentsituation."
DonaldTrumpspeakingaftertheParisandSanBernardinoTerroristattacks,November14,2015inBeaumont,Texas.
5
“Morepeoplewouldhavebeenkilled[ifsomeoneattheOrlandoNightclubmassacrehadapermittedconcealedhandgun].”
BillClintonspeakingattheClintonGlobalInitiativeAmericaConferenceonJune14,2016
Whetherpeopleshouldbeallowedtocarrypermittedconcealedhandgunshasbecomeacontentiousissueinthisyear'spresidentialcampaign.
AsimpleGoogleTrendssearchshowsthatpeople’sinterestinconcealedcarryhasspikedinthewakeofrecentmasspublicshootings.Takethethreeattacksthatoccurredlastfall.InterestsimilarlyspikedaftertheattacksinOrlandoandelsewhere.
Theseattackshavealsobeenfollowedbysharpincreasesinthenumberofpermitsbeingissued.Withover1.73millionnewconcealedhandgunpermitsissuedinjustthelastyear—bringingthetotalto14.5million—AmericanshaveclearlydonemorethansimplylookupinformationontheInternetaboutconcealedhandgunpermits.
Overtheyears,moreandmorestateshaveadoptedlawsallowingindividualstoobtainconcealedcarrypermits.Illinoiswasthelaststatetodoso,issuingitsfirstpermitsinMarch2014.EvenWashington,D.C.finallystartedissuingpermitsearlierthisyear.Today,permittedconcealedhandgunsareallowedineveryjurisdictionoftheUnitedStates.
Buttherulesvarygreatlyfromstatetostate.Therearenofeesortraining
6
requirementsintheelevenstatesthatdonotrequirepermits.Theaveragefeeforafive-yearpermitis$74.AtoneendisIllinois,whichchargesa$150feeandrequires16hoursoftraining.Thetrainingmaycost$250,resultinginatotalmonetarycostofabout$400.Bycontrast,SouthDakotahasnotrainingrequirementandchargesonly$10forafour-yearpermit.Similarly,Pennsylvaniahasnotrainingrequirementandcharges$19forafive-yearpermit.
Notsurprisingly,concealedcarryismuchmorepopularinstateswherepermitsarerelativelyinexpensiveandeasytoobtain.
Thisreportwillfocusontheincreaseinconcealedcarry.Obviously,theimportantthingfromacrimepreventionstandpointiswhetherpeopleactuallycarryguns,notwhethertheyareallowedtodoso.
It’snotjustthatmorestatesnowallowconcealedcarry.Therehasalsobeenanincreaseinpermitswithineachstate.Thelongerthatconcealedcarrylawshavebeenineffect,themoretimethatpeoplehavehadtoapplyforandreceivepermits.Butthereappearstobeanotherfactor:PresidentObama’selectionin2008.NotonlydidObama’selectionincreasegunsales,italsoincreasedthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermits.
Previously,theincreaseinpermitshadbeenrelativelyslow,growingfromroughly2.7millionpermitholdersin1999to4.6millionin2007.ButthenumberofconcealedhandgunpermitsexplodedduringtheObamapresidency.InDecember2011,theGovernmentAccountabilityOfficeestimatedthattherewereatleast8millionconcealedhandgunpermits.ByJune2014,itwas11.1million.Now,in2016,thenumberisuptoover14.5million.
Inotherwords,duringtheeightyearsfrom1999to2007,thenumberofpermitsincreasedbyabout240,000annually.Duringthenextfouryears,thenumberofpermitssurgedby850,000annually.Then,in2012and2013,theyearlyincreaseacceleratedto1,550,000.Then1,690,000lastyearand1,730,000thisyear.
Therapidincreaseinconcealedcarrypermitsismirroredbyarapidincreaseingunsales.TheNationalInstantCriminalBackgroundCheckSystem(NICS)checkssoaredfrom11.2to23.1millionbetween2007and2015.Salesin2016havegrownatanevenfasterpace.
Pollsshowalessdrasticincreaseingunownership.Butpollingreliesonpeople’swillingnesstorevealwhethertheyownagun,whichmaybeaffectedbymassshootingsorbygrowingdistrustofgovernment.1
7
Thebackgroundcheckmeasurehastheproblemofnotbeingabletotellusthenumberofpeoplebuyingguns.Somepeopleundergomultiplechecks,andsometimesmultiplegunsaresoldwithasinglecheck.Furthermore,peoplewhohavealreadypassedaconcealedcarrybackgroundcheckarenotalwaysrequiredtoundergoanotheroneforbuyingagun.
Concealedhandgunpermitdataisathirdmeasureofgunownership.Butthenumberofpermitsclearlyunderestimatesthetruenumberofpeoplewhocanlegallycarryconcealedhandguns.Therearethreereasonsforthis.
1) PermitsarenotrequiredintenstatesaswellasvirtuallyallofMontana.Generally,peopleinthosestatesonlyobtainpermitssothattheycancarryconcealedwhentravelingoutsideoftheirhomestate.Withnofeesorotherrequirements,thesestatesareprobablytheoneswherepeoplemostfrequentlylegallycarryconcealedguns.
2) Dataisnotreadilyavailableforafewstates.Forexample,NewHampshireonlycollectsdataonpermitsissuedtonon-residents,thoughweweregivenaconservativeestimate.AlabamaandNewYorksimplydon’tcollectthisdataatallonthestatelevel,anditisaverycumbersomeprocesstoobtaindatafromalargenumberofindividualcountiesorcities.Wewouldcollectdataforsomecountiesandthenassumethatrateissimilarfortherestofthestate.
3) Forsomestates,thedataisoneormoreyearsoldandthusmissestherecentgrowthinpermits.
Asmoreandmorestatesdecidenottorequirepermits,thenumberofpeoplewhocanlegallycarryahandgunwillincreasinglyoutpacethenumberofpermitholders.
Duetooldandmissingdata,14.5millionisundoubtedlyanunderestimateofthetotalnumberofAmericanswithpermits.Ontheotherhand,atleast687,840ofthesepermitsare“non-residential”permits,someofwhichareissuedtopeoplewhoalreadyhaveconcealedhandgunpermitsfromtheirhomestates.Mostprobablygetanon-residentialpermitinplaceoftheirstatepermitsimplybecausepermitsfromstatessuchasUtahandFloridaarehonoredinthevastmajorityofstates.Mostofthesenon-residentialpermitsareissuedbyUtahandFlorida.
8
Asthemaponthenextpageshows,everypartofthecountryhasbothstateswithover10percentoftheadultpopulationwithconcealedhandgunpermitsandhasastatethatalsodoesn’trequirepeopletohaveapermittocarry.
Tosummarize,thetotalnumberofpermitsintheUSisatleast14.53million.Addinpeoplewholegallycarrywithoutapermit,andthenumberclearlybecomesmuchlarger.ThetotalnumberofAmericanswithpermitscouldpossiblybelowerthan14.53million,butismostlikelyinexcessofthatfigure.
9
Percentofadultpopulationwithpermitsbystate
10
ExplainingtheNumberofPermitsIssued
Inagivenstate,thepercentageofadultswithpermitscanbeeasilyexplainedbythecostsofobtainingapermit,howmanyyearsconcealedcarrylawshavebeenineffect,andwhethergovernmentofficialshavediscretioninissuingpermits.2
Amongourfindings:
--Each$10increaseinfeescausesahalfapercentagepointdecreaseintheproportionofadultswithpermits.
--Each10yearsthatthepermitlawhasbeenineffectcausesa1.5percentagepointincreaseintheproportionofadultswithpermits.
--Governmentdiscretioninissuingpermitsisassociatedwithatwo-thirdsreductioninthepercentageofadultswithpermits.
DeterringCrime
Manyfactorsaffectcrimerates,amongthem:arrestandconvictionrates,policingpolicies,prison,demographics,income,poverty,andeducation.Butconcealedcarrylawsarealsopartofthisstory,especiallywhenalargepercentageofthepopulationhaspermits.Theoverwhelmingmajorityofpeer-reviewedacademicresearchbyeconomistsandcriminologistsconcludesthatownershipofpermittedconcealedhandgunscausesareductioninviolentcrime.Thedebateisbetweenthoseclaimingareductionincrimeandthosedenyinganyeffect(forasurvey,seeLott,“Whatabalancingtestwillshowforright-to-carrylaws,”UniversityofMarylandLawReview(2012):1205-1218).
Mostresearch,however,focusesonwhatstatesallowright-to-carry,notthemorerelevantquestionofhowmanypeopleareactuallycarrying.(Onlypeer-reviewedstudiesbyJohnLottinthesecondandthirdeditionsofMoreGuns,LessCrime[UniversityofChicagoPress,2000and2010]usethenumberofpermitstomeasuretheimpactofconcealedcarrylaws).Empiricaltestsshouldmeasurewhethercrimeratesfellrelativelymoresharplyinthosestateswiththelargestpercentageofpermitholders.
In2014,thesevenstatesthatallowedconcealedcarrywithoutapermithadmuchlowerratesofmurderandviolentcrimethandidthesevenjurisdictionswiththelowestpercentageofpermitholders.Indeed,themurderratewas31percent
11
lowerinthestatesnotrequiringpermits.Theviolentcrimeratewas28percentlower.
Comparedtotherestofthecountry,the25stateswiththehighestratesofpermit-holdingexperiencedmarkedlylowerratesofmurderandviolentcrime.
Ofcourse,suchacomparisonisfartoosimplistic.Therearemanyfactorsthatinfluencecrime,andsimple,cross-sectionalcomparisonsareunabletoaccountforallofthem.Wecanaccountfordifferencesacrossstatesonlybylookingathowcrimeratesvarybeforeandafterchangesinastate’spermitrules.
Stateshaveadoptedconcealedhandgunlawsindifferentyearsandissuedpermitsatdifferentrates.Thisallowsforrevealingcomparisons(seeAppendixforalargeandgrowingbodyofpeer-reviewedliterature).Onemustlookacrossstatesandcomparechangesincrimerateswithchangesintheratesofpermitholding.Doingsohasconsistentlyrevealedaverystrongrelationshipbetweenmorepermitsandlessviolentcrime(e.g.,Lott,MoreGuns,LessCrime,UniversityofChicagoPress2010andLott,2012).
Ouranalysispresentedheredoesn’tprovidesuchsophisticatedestimatessimplybecausethenecessarydatawillnotbeavailableforatleastacoupleofyears.Thus,thisreportshouldonlybeviewedassuggestive.3
Insteadofjustcomparingstatesthatdon’trequirepermitswiththosethatdo,itisalsopossibletolookatstatesthatrequirepermits.Afteraccountingforthepercapitanumberofpoliceandnewprisonadmissionsaswellasdemographics,thisstatelevelpermitdatasuggeststhateachonepercentagepointincreaseinthepercentoftheadultpopulationholdingpermitsisroughlyassociatedwitha25percentdropinthemurderrate.4
Sincethelateststatelevelcrimedataisonlyavailablethrough2014,the2011and2014permitandmurderdatashowsthatthosestatesthathadthebiggestincreasesinpermitshadthebiggestpercentagedropinmurderrates.A10percentincreaseintheshareoftheadultpopulationwithpermitsreducesthemurderrateby1.4percent.5
12
TheChangingGenderofPermitHolders
Dataforsevenstatesshowageneralupwardtrendinthepercentageofpermitholderswhoarewomen.
■ Arizona:thepercentageofpermitholderswhoarewomenrosefrom20.7%in2012to21.2%in2016
■ Florida:from18%inMay2012to24.1%inMay2016.
■ Indiana:from18.0%inJune2012to22.7%inMarch2015.
■ Louisiana:from18.3%in2009to24.8%in2014.
■ NorthCarolina:from21.3%inJune2012to27.5%inMarch2015
■ NorthDakota:from11.2%in2010to24.9%in2014.
■ Tennessee:from23.3%in2008to31.2%in2016.
■ Texas:from17.26in2004to25.8%in2015.
■ WashingtonState:between2005and2014,“thegrowthrateforwomengettingnewpermits[was]twiceasfastasthatofmen.”6
Ineightstateswherewehavedatabygender,since2012thenumberofpermitshasincreasedby161%forwomenandby85%formen.
Thereisalsosomeverylimiteddataonpermitissuancebyrace.Texasprovides
13
detailedinformationonbothraceandgenderfrom1996through2014.7Thestate’sdataindicatethatpermittinghasincreasedfastestforblacks,followedcloselybyAsians.Whilewhitesstillholdthevastmajorityofpermits,thenumberofblackpermitholdershasgrownmorethantwiceasquicklyasthenumberofwhitepermitholders.
Thegrowthinpermit-holdingbyAsians,blacks,andAmericanIndianswasbyfarthefastestaftertheminimumtrainingrequirementswerereducedfrom10hourstofourin2013.Between2012and2014,thenumberofblackpermitholdersincreasedfrom10,389to17,594.Asianpermitholdersgrewfrom3,286to5,822.Reducingthecostofobtainingpermitsseemstohavehaditsbiggestimpactonminorities.
Whenpermitdataisbrokendownbyraceandgender,wefindthatratesofpermitholdingamongAmericanIndian,Asian,black,andwhitefemalesallgrewmuchfasterthantheratesformalesinthoseracialgroups.Concealedcarryhasincreasedmostrapidlyamongblackfemales.From2000to2015,therateofgrowthwas3.81timesfasterthanamongwhitefemales.
14
15
PermitHoldersareExtremelyLaw-abiding
Itisveryrareforpermitholderstoviolatethelaw.Inordertoappreciatehowincrediblyrarethoseproblemsare,oneneedstorememberthatthereareover12.8millionpermitholdersintheUS.Indeed,itisimpossibletothinkofanyothergroupintheUSthatisanywherenearaslaw-abiding.
Togetanideaofjusthowlaw-abidingconcealedhandgunpermitholdersare,weneedonlycomparethemtopolice.AccordingtoastudyinPoliceQuarterly,policecommittedanaverageof703crimesperyearfrom2005to2007.8113oftheseinvolvedfirearmsviolations.Thisislikelytobeanunderestimate,sincenotallpolicecrimesreceivemediacoverage.Theauthorsofthestudymayalsohavemissedsomemediareports.
Sohowlaw-abidingarepolice?Withabout685,464full-timepoliceofficersintheU.S.from2005to2007,wefindthattherewereabout103crimesperhundredthousandofficers.FortheU.S.populationasawhole,thecrimeratewas37timeshigher--3,813perhundredthousandpeople.
Perhapspolicecrimesareunderreportedduetoleniencyfromfellowofficers,butthevastcrimegapbetweenpoliceandthegeneralpopulaceisreallyundeniable.
Concealedcarrypermitholdersareevenmorelaw-abidingthanpolice.BetweenOctober1,1987andJune30,2015,Floridarevoked9,999concealedhandgunpermitsformisdemeanorsorfelonies.9Thisisanannualrevocationrateof12.8permitsper100,000.In2013(thelastyearforwhichdataisavailable),158permitholderswereconvictedofafelonyormisdemeanor–aconvictionrateof22.3per100,000.10CombiningthedataforFloridaandTexasdata,wefindthatpermitholdersareconvictedofmisdemeanorsandfeloniesatlessthanasixththerateforpoliceofficers.
Amongpolice,firearmsviolationsoccuratarateof16.5per100,000officers.AmongpermitholdersinFloridaandTexas,therateisonly2.4per100,000.10Thatisjust1/7thoftherateforpoliceofficers.Butthere'snoneedtofocusonTexasandFlorida—thedataaresimilarinotherstates.
16
WhyistheNumberofPermitsIncreasing?
Thesurgeinconcealedhandgunpermitscorrespondscloselywithopinionpollsonguns.TakeaseriesofpollsbythePewResearchCenter.InDecember2012,respondentssaidbyamarginof48-to-37percentthatowningagun,“protectedthemfrombeingcrimevictims”asopposedto“puttingpeople’ssafetyatrisk.”11ByDecember2014,people’spositiveimpressionofgunshadgrowntoamarginof57-to-38.
SimilarchangeswerefoundinpollsbyGallupandbyABCNews-WashingtonPost.12Theyaskamorenarrowquestion:whetherhavingaguninthehomemakesthehomesaferormoredangerous.Thechangehasbeendramatic.In2000,Gallupfoundthatonly35percentofAmericansthoughtthatowningagunmadetheirhomesafer.By2014,thatnumberhadsoaredto63percent.
It'snotjustthatAmericansthinkthathavingagunmakesthemsaferasindividuals.Theyalsofeelbetterknowingthattheirneighborsarearmed.ARasmussenpollfromthispastJunefoundthata68-to-22percentmarginAmericans“feelsaferinaneighborhoodwheregunsareallowed.”13
ApollbyPEWhelpstoexplainwhytherehasbeensuchalargeincreaseinconcealedhandgunpermitsamongblacksandwomen.Thepollshowsa25percentagepointincreaseintheproportionofblackswithafavorableviewofguns.Thisisthelargestincreaseofanygroup.Theincreaseamongallwomenwas11percentagepoints,andtheincreaseamongmenwas8percentagepoints.
17
Table1:NumberofPermitHoldersbyState
State ActivePermits
DataUpdated
Alabama 513,209 June,2016
Alaska† 8,770 June,2016
Arizona† 272,622 June,2016
Arkansas† 202,722 June,2016
California 59,808 December31,2015
Colorado 248,478 December31,2015
Connecticut 229,000 March3,2016
Delaware 13,275 July,2016
DistrictofColumbia 74 May17,2016
Florida††
1,581,742 total/ 1,369,923 residential June30,2016
Georgia 945,000 December31,2015
Hawaii 168 March21,2013
Idaho† 130,760 June14,2016
Illinois 180,583 June14,2016
Indiana 728,976 June14,2016
Iowa 267,149 December31,2015
Kansas† 100,493 January31,2016
Kentucky 277,972 December31,2014
Louisiana 154,707 December31,2015
Maine† 36,000 March18,2015
Maryland 16,152 April30,2016
Floridaisthestatethathasissuedthemostconcealedcarrypermitsat1.58million,followedbyPennsylvaniawith1.2million.
18
Massachusetts 360,263 June1,2016
Michigan 556,136 June1,2016
Minnesota 221,712 February1,2016
Mississippi† 46,598 June21,2016
Missouri 160,184 December31,2012
Montana* 50,300 June1,2016
Nebraska 48,579 June1,2016
Nevada 104,123 June1,2016
NewHampshire
34,315 non-residential/ at least 44,000 residential March20,2015
NewJersey 1,200 2012-2013
NewMexico 40,330 June20,2016
NewYork¥ 40,794 September2014
NorthCarolina 530,092 June20,2016
NorthDakota 40,872 December31,2015
Ohio 549,730 March31,2016
Oklahoma 256,612 May27,2016
Oregon 226,255 February1,2016
Pennsylvania 1,193,146 June20,2016
RhodeIsland 2,813 February1,2016
SouthCarolina 276,084 December31,2015
SouthDakota 91,785 May31,2016
Tennessee 560,933 June1,2016
Texas 1,052,073 May1,2016
Utah††
660,012total/230,306residential June,2016
19
Vermont† Nopermitsissued
Virginia 426,280 June13,2016
Washington 515,065 January1,2016
WestVirginia† 147,801 February28,2015
Wisconsin 300,000 March24,2016
Wyoming† 27,347 January19,2016
TOTAL 14,533,094
†Stateswherepermitsnotrequiredtocarrywithinthestate.Permitsonlyobtainedtocarryoutsideofstate.
††Permitsnotrequiredtocarryin99.4percentofMontanaandasimilarpercentageofIdaho.Forthosepeople,theonlyreasonthattheywouldobtainapermitistocarryinotherstates.
*Utah'stotalpermitsaswellasthoseissuedonlytoresidentsareincludedhere.
ºNewHampshire’spermitnumbersonlyincludeout-of-statepermits.
¥DataarenotavailableforNewYorkState,soweassumeda0.1%permittingratebasedonHerkimer,Suffolk,Monroe,andSuffolkCountiesaswellasNewYorkCityhttp://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/2014/09/more-misleading-information-from-bloombergs-everytown-for-gun-safety-on-guns-analysis-of-recent-mass-shootings/.ForNYC,GawkerusedaFOIAreleaseofNYPDlicensees.114pagesofcarrylicenseswith50nameseach=5,700.http://gawker.com/5974190/here-is-a-list-of-all-the-assholes-who-own-guns-in-new-york-city.
20
Table2:RankingStatesbyPercentoftheAdultpopulationwithPermits
State
%ofAdultPopulationwithconcealedcarry
permit
Indiana 15.0%
SouthDakota 14.7%
Alabama 14.1%
Georgia 12.7%
Pennsylvania 12.2%
Utah†† 11.6%
Iowa 11.5%
Tennessee 11.4%
Idaho† 11.1%
WestVirginia† 10.4%
Washington 9.6%
Arkansas† 9.2%
Oklahoma 9.0%
Florida†† 8.7%
Kentucky 8.4%
Connecticut 8.4%
NewHampshire 7.5%
SouthCarolina 7.5%
Michigan 7.4%
Oregon 7.4%
NorthDakota 7.3%
21
NorthCarolina 7.1%
Wisconsin 6.9%
Massachusetts 6.9%
Virginia 6.8%
Montana* 6.4%
Wyoming† 6.3%
Ohio 6.3%
Colorado 6.1%
Minnesota 5.5%
Arizona† 5.4%
Texas 5.4%
Nevada 4.8%
Kansas† 4.8%
Louisiana 4.5%
Nebraska 3.5%
Missouri 3.5%
NewMexico 2.6%
Maine† 2.3%
Mississippi† 2.1%
Illinois 1.9%
Delaware 1.8%
Alaska† 1.6%
Maryland 0.4%
RhodeIsland 0.3%
NewYork¥ 0.3%
California 0.2%
NewJersey 0.0%
Hawaii 0.0%
22
DistrictofColumbia 0.0%
Vermont† Notavailable
†Stateswherepermitsnotrequiredtocarrywithinthestate.Permitsonlyobtainedtocarryoutsideofstate.Thesenumberswilldramaticallyunderestimatethetrueratethatgunsarelegallycarriedconcealedinthesestates.
*Permitsnotrequiredtocarryin99.4percentofMontana(areasoutsideofcitylimits).Forthosepeople,theonlyreasonthattheywouldobtainapermitistocarryinotherstates.
††OnlyFloridaandUtah'sresidentialpermitsareincludedhere.
23
Table3:CostofGettingPermitsbyState
State PermitTypeInitialHandgunCarryPermitFee
LengthPermitisValid(years)
Costtocarryfor5years
AlabamaConcealedhandgunpermit $10peryear
1-5years(chosenbyapplicant) $50
Alaska†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $89.75 5 0
Arizona†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $60.00 5 0
Arkansas†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates
$144.94age65+$93.44 5 0
CaliforniaCarryconcealedweaponslicense(MayIssueonly)
$100localprocessingfeeplusadditionalfees 2 $250
ColoradoConcealedhandgunpermit
$52.50plusadditionalfees 5 $52.50
Connecticut PermittocarryPistolsorRevolvers $70.00 5 $70
Delaware Licensetocarryconcealeddeadlyweapon $65 5 $65
DistrictofColumbia Concealedcarryhandgunpermit $75 2 $187.50
Florida Concealedweaponorfirearmslicense $70 7 $70
GeorgiaFirearmslicense
$75.00averagefee.Variesbycounty. 5 $75
Hawaii Licensetocarryhandgun $10.00 1 $10
Idaho† Concealedhandgunpermit $20.00 5 0
24
Illinois Concealedcarryhandgunlicense $150 5 $150
IndianaLicensetocarryhandgun
$49.95or$134.95lifetime 4 $62.44
Iowa Permittocarryweapons $50.00 5 $50
Kansas† Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates
$100toAttorneyGeneral.$32.50tolocalSheriff'sOffice 4 0
Kentucky Permittocarryconcealedhandgun $60.00 5 $60
Louisiana Concealedhandguncarrypermit
$125.00or$500lifetime 5 $125
Maine†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $35 4 0
Maryland Handgunwearandcarrypermit
$75.00plusfingerprintfees 3 125
Massachusetts Firearmcarrylicense $100 6 $100
Michigan Concealedpistollicense $100 4 $125
Minnesota
Permittocarrypistol
nottoexceed$100.determinedbySheriff 5 $100
Mississippi†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $80 5 $80
Missouri Concealedcarrygunpermit $100 5 $100
Montana* Concealedcarryhandgunpermit $50 4 $50
Nebraska Permittocarryaconcealedhandgun $100 5 $100
Nevada Concealedcarryhandgunpermit $98.25 5 $98
NewHampshirePistol&RevolverLicense
$10resident$100non-resident 4 $10
25
NewJersey ConcealedCarryhandgunpermit $65 2 $65
NewMexico Concealedhandguncarrypermit $100 4 $100
NewYork¥Firearmslicensetocarryconcealed
generallynottoexceed$10.Costvariesbycounty 5 $10
NewYorkCityConcealedcarryhandgunlicense $429.75 3 $430
NorthCarolinaConcealedhandgunpermit
$80plus$10fingerprints 5 $90
NorthDakota Concealedweaponspermit $25 5 $25
Ohio Licensetocarryaconcealedhandgun $67 5 $67
Oklahoma Selfdefenseactlicense $85 5 $85
Oregon Concealedhandgunlicense $65 4 $65
Pennsylvania Licensetocarryhandgun $20 5 $20
RhodeIsland Licensetocarryaconcealableweapon $40 4 $40
SouthCarolina Concealedweaponpermit $50 5 $50
SouthDakota ConcealedPistolPermit $10 5 $10
Tennessee
Handguncarrypermit
3yrs$102.50),4yrs$115.00,5yrs$127.50,6yrs$140.00,7yrs$152.50Lifetime$500(renewalN/A)
3-7(AlsoLifetimepermit) $140
Texas Licensetocarryahandgun $140 5 $140
UtahConcealedFirearmPermit
$39.00resident$49.00non-resident 5 $39
Vermont†NOPERMITSREQUIRED/DOESNOTISSUEPERMITS N/A N/A 0
VirginiaConcealedhandgunpermit
nottoexceed$50.00 5 $50
26
Washington Concealedpistollicense $36 5 $36
WestVirginia†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates
$75plus$25ifapproved=$100 5 $100
Wisconsin Concealedweaponlicense $40 5 $40
Wyoming†Constitutionalcarry/permitforreciprocitywithotherstates $75 5 $75
Average $74
27
Notes
*RujunWangandRogerLottprovidedvaluableresearchassistanceinproducingthisreport.
1.Thereareanumberofpollsthatshowthisincreasingdistrustofgovernment.ThePewResearchCenterdescribesthetrustingovernmenta“nearhistoriclows.”Seeforexample,PewResearchCenter,PublicTrustinGovernment:1958-2014,November13,2014(http://www.people-press.org/2014/11/13/public-trust-in-government/).
2.Tocalculatewhatinfluenceswhetherpeoplegetpermits,weranasimpleregressionontheright-to-carryandmayissuestates,excludingthesixstatesthatdonotrequirethatpeoplehavetohavepermitstolegallycarryaconcealedhandgun.Theabsolutet-statisticsareshowninparentheses.
Percentofadultpopulationwithpermits=0.00148(1.61)yearsthattheright-to-carrylawhasbeenineffect+0.0229(0.84)whethertheright-to-carrylawwasineffectbefore1977-0.044(1.87)MayIssuelawwithdiscretiononwhogetsapermit–0.00051(2.71)Feesforgettingpermit–0.00035(0.17)Hoursoftrainingrequiredtogetpermit+0.085(3.21)Constant
Average
YearsRight-to-CarryLawineffectby2014 11.14
Fee $66.99
Hours 5.57
3.Regressingthenaturallogofthemurderrateonthepercentoftheadultpopulationwithpermits,thenumberoffull-timeswornpoliceofficersper1,000Americans,andatimetrendfinds:
ln(murderrate)=-.2499(7.15)percentofadultswithpermits-.8197(5.50)policeper1,000Americans–0.0023(3.41)PrisonPopulationper100,000people+
28
0.0068(2.51)yeartimetrend-8.95(1.76)Constant
Usingthepercentofthepopulationinprisoninsteadofatimetrendproducedverysimilarresults.
4.Toestimatethisweranacouplesimpleregressionsonthemurderrateonthepercentageofadultpopulationwithpermitsaswellaswithandwithoutstateandyearfixedeffects.Thereisalotofnoiseintheseestimatesbothbecausethepermitnumberscomefrommanydifferentyearsaswellastheestimatednumberofmurdersin2013.Theseestimateshaveagreatdealofmeasurementerrorandshouldonlybetakenassuggestive.Thatsaid,thesimplestestimateregressingthemurderrateonthepercentageoftheadultpopulationwithpermitsproducesacoefficientandabsolutet-statisticsof-12.68(1.66).Withfixedeffects,theestimatewas6.8(0.82).
5.Regressingthepercentchangeinmurderratesonthepercentchangeintheshareoftheadultpopulationbetween2011and2014givesusthis:
Percentchangeinmurderrates=-.136(1.38)thepercentchangeintheshareoftheadultpopulation+.212(0.99)Constant
F-statistics=1.92,AdjustedR-squared=0.0242
WeusedtheGAOreportonpercentofthepopulationwithpermitsfor2011(http://www.gao.gov/assets/600/592552.pdf).TherewereobviouserrorsintheGAOreportforMaineandConnecticut.Forexample,in2011,theGAOstatesthattherewereonly4,000concealedhandgunpermits.Thatwouldimplyanamazing725percentincreaseinpermitsbetween2011and2013.Forapermittingsystemthathadbeenaroundfordecadesandnorecentchangeintheirlaws,itwouldbesurprisingtohaveanystateseethattypeofchange.Maine’sSpecialInvestigationsUnittoldusthattherewereinfact24,000in2011.PossiblytheGAOsimplyleftoffthenumber“2”whenthenrecordedthisinformation.InConnecticut,wehadasmallernumberofpermitsin2011(115,000).
6.JustinMayo,BrianM.Rosenthal,andErikaSchultz,“Concealed-carrypermitsskyrocket,especiallyforwomen,”TheSeattleTimes,May31,2014(http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/concealed-carry-permits-skyrocket-especially-for-women/).
29
7.Thosewhoindicatedthattheywereofmultipleraceswereexcludedbecausepeople’swillingnesstosaythattheyareofmultipleraceshaschangedovertime.Thusitisnotpossibletoknowhowmuchofthechangeisduetopeople’swillingnesstoidentifythemselvesthiswayoranactualchangeinthenumberofpeopleinthiscategory.
8.PhilStinson,JLiederbachandTLFreiburger,“ExitStrategy:AnExplorationofLate-StagePoliceCrime,”PoliceQuarterlyDecember201013:413-435.Dataonthenumberoffull-timelawenforcementemployeesisavailablefromtheFBIUniformCrimeReportsfrom2005to2007,Table74(https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_74.html).
9.ConcealedWeaponorFirearmLicenseSummaryReport,October1,1987-June30,2015(http://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf).
10.ThenumberofpermitholdersinTexasin2013isavailablehere(https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/reports/ActLicAndInstr/ActiveLicandInstr2013.pdf).Theconvictionratesofpermitholdersduringthatyearisavailablehere(https://www.txdps.state.tx.us/RSD/CHL/Reports/ConvictionRatesReport2013.pdf).
11.PewResearchCenter,“GrowingPublicSupportforGunRights:MoreSayGunsDoMoretoProtectThanPutPeopleatRisk,”December10,2014(http://www.people-press.org/2014/12/10/growing-public-support-for-gun-rights/).
12.JustinMcCarthy,“MoreThanSixin10AmericansSayGunsMakeHomesSafer,”Gallup,November7,2014(http://www.gallup.com/poll/179213/six-americans-say-guns-homes-safer.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication).ScottClementandPeytonCraighill,“MajorityofAmericanssaygunsmakehomessafer,”WashingtonPost,April18,2013(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/04/18/majority-of-americans-say-guns-make-homes-safer/).
13.RasmussenReports,“AmericansPreferLivinginNeighborhoodsWithGuns,”June12,2015
30
(http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/gun_control/americans_prefer_living_in_neighborhoods_with_guns).
31
DataSourcesforNumberofConcealedHandgunPermits
StateDataSource
Alabama RequestsfordatafromsecondandthirdlargestcountiesJune29,2016.
Alaska*EricGaffney,Records&LicensingSupervisor,DivisionofStatewideServices,AlaskaDepartmentofPublicSafety(907)269-5634
Arizona* ArizonaDepartmentofPublicSafety,Statistics-ConcealedWeaponspermitshttp://www.azdps.gov/Services/Concealed_Weapons/Statistics/
Arkansas BillSadler,ArkansasStatePolice-PublicInformationOfficer
California BrandonCombs,CalgunsFoundation
ColoradoCOLORADOGENERALASSEMBLY-STATUTORYREPORTShttp://www.leg.state.co.us/library/reports.nsf/ReportsDoc.xsp?documentId=D6727350F8E058DB87256E6600773612
Connecticut emailreplyfromtheConnecticutDepartmentofEmergencyServicesandPublicProtection
Delaware DelawareCriminalJusticeInformationSystem
DistrictofColumbia AndreaNoble,"FederaljudgehaltsD.C.’s‘goodreason’concealed
carryrequirement,"WashingtonTimes,May18,2015http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/18/dc-good-reason-gun-ownership-requirement-halted-by/?page=all
Florida FloridaDepartmentofAgricultureandConsumerServicesDivisionofLicensingConcealedWeaponorFirearmLicenseSummaryReporthttp://www.freshfromflorida.com/content/download/7499/118851/cw_monthly.pdf
32
Georgia Georgiacarry.org
HawaiiGAOsayszeropermits.LegallyArmedsays183securityguardsin2010.http://www.hawaiireporter.com/hawaii-firearms-registrations-reach-record-high-after-70-percent-jump/123
Idaho TeresaBaker,PublicInformationOfficer,IdahoStatePolice,700S.StratfordDr.,Meridian,ID83642208.884.7122
Illinois RichardPearson,IllinoisStateRifleAssociation
Indiana IndianaStatePoliceFirearmsLicensingStatisticsbyCountyhttp://www.in.gov/isp/files/ISP_Firearms_Licensing_Statistics_2015_2nd_Quarter.pdf
Iowa LaurenBlanchard,"Boom:Iowagunpermitssoarfive-foldsince2010,"FoxNewsJanuary23,2015http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/01/23/boom-iowa-gun-permits-soar-five-fold-since-2010/
Kansas TimCarpenter,"Legislatureapprovesunlicensedconceal-carrybill,"TopekaCapital-Journal,March26,2015http://cjonline.com/news/state/2015-03-25/legislature-approves-unlicensed-conceal-carry-bill
Kentucky KentuckyStatePolicehttp://www.kentuckystatepolice.org/ccdw/ccdw_reports.html
Louisiana LouisianaDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://www.lsp.org/handguns.html
MaineSergeantMichaelP.JohnstonSpecialInvestigationsUnit164StateHouseStationAugusta,ME04333Office:(207)624-7212
Maryland SergeantJohnCasey,MarylandStatePoliceHandgunPermitUnitCommander
33
MassachusettsMichaelaDunne|ManagerofLawEnforcement&JusticeServicesMassachusettsDepartmentofCriminalJusticeInformationServices,200ArlingtonStreet,Suite2200Chelsea,MA02150p.617.660.4682|[email protected]
Michigan MichiganStatePolicehttp://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/ccw_county_report_273948_7.pdf
Minnesota MinnesotaAssociationofDefensiveFirearmInstructorshttp://www.madfi.org/permitcount.asp
Mississippi Email:[email protected]<[email protected]>;
Missouri Email:[email protected]
Montana† JohnBarnes,DepartmentofJustice,Montana
Nebraska NebraskaStatePatrol/Criminalinvestigationdevision,[email protected]
Nevada NevadaDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://johnrlott.blogspot.com/2015/03/nevadas-concealed-handgun-permits-surge.html
NewHampshire SergeantSeanR.Haggerty,NewHampshireStatePolice,PermitsandLicensingUnit
NewJersey NewJerseyStatePolice/Firearminvestigationoffice,GlennRoss#5092,AssistantUnitHead,[email protected]
NewMexico NewMexicoDepartmentofPublicSafetyhttp://www.dps.state.nm.us/index.php/nm-concealed-carry/concealed-handgun-carry-statistics/
34
NewYorkNYC Assuminga0.1%permittingratebasedonHerkimer,Suffolk,
Monroe,andSuffolkCountiesaswellasNewYorkCityhttp://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/2014/09/more-misleading-information-from-bloombergs-everytown-for-gun-safety-on-guns-analysis-of-recent-mass-shootings/,forNYCGawkerFOIAreleaseofNYPDlicensees.114pagesofcarrylicenseswith50nameseach=5,700.http://gawker.com/5974190/here-is-a-list-of-all-the-assholes-who-own-guns-in-new-york-city
NorthCarolina NCAttorneyGeneral,emailfrompublicinformationofficer
NorthDakota NorthDakotaAttorneyGeneralhttp://www.ag.nd.gov/BCI/CW/GeneralInfo/CWLIssuedCounty.pdf
Ohio OhioAttorneyGeneralhttp://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Publications/Publications-for-Law-Enforcement/Concealed-Carry-Publications/Concealed-Carry-Statistics
Oklahoma http://www.ok.gov/osbi/
OregonDepartmentofStatePolice,CentralRecordsSection,503-378-3725
Pennsylvania uniformedPublicInformationOfficerTpr.AdamReed,PennsylvaniaStatePolice,[email protected]
RhodeIsland WilliamKaralis<[email protected]>
SouthCarolina SouthCarolinaLawEnforcementDivisionhttp://www.sled.sc.gov/CWPStats.aspx?MenuID=CWP
SouthDakota [email protected]/605-773-5002
Tennessee TNDeptofSafetyandHomelandSecurityhttp://crimepreventionresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Tennessee-permits-06102015.png
35
Texas TomBenning,"TexasLegislature'spushforgunissuestriggeredbypolitics,"DallasMorningNews,April13,2015;thenumberforDecember31,2014isavailableherehttps://www.txdps.state.tx.us/rsd/chl/reports/ActLicAndInstr/ActiveLicandInstr2014.pdf
Utah†† UtahDepartmentofPublicSafety,FirearmStatisticalReview,FirstQuarter2015http://bci.utah.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2015/01/2015Q1.pdf
Vermont* Nopermitsrequiredtocarry.Nopermitsofferedforthosewhocarryoutofstate.
Virginia obtainedfromCorinneGeller,PublicRelationsDirector,VaStatePolice
Washington WashingtonDepartmentofLicensing,360.902.3600
WestVirginia KrisWiseMaramba,","LoganBanner(WestVirginia),August13,2014http://www.loganbanner.com/news/news/50264451/Concealed-weapons-permits-quadrupled-in-West-Virginia
Wisconsin AnneE.Schwartz,DirectorofCommunicationsandPublicAffairs,DepartmentofJustice,OfficeofAttorneyGeneralBradSchimel,17W.MainSt.P.O.Box7857,Madison,WI53707-7857,DirectPhone:(608)266-6686
Wyoming* AnthonyBouchard,WyomingGunOwners
36
Appendixofsomeacademicresearchshowingthatright-to-carrylawsreduceviolentcrime
JohnR.Lott,Jr.andDavidB.Mustard,Crime,Deterrence,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandguns,JournalofLegalStudies,1997.
WilliamAlanBartleyandMarkACohen,TheEffectofConcealedWeaponsLaws:AnExtremeBoundAnalysis,EconomicInquiry,April1998.(Copyavailablehere)
StephenG.BronarsandJohnR.Lott,Jr.,CriminalDeterrence,GeographicSpillovers,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandguns,AmericanEconomicReview,May1998.
JohnR.Lott,Jr.,“TheConcealed–HandgunDebate,”JournalofLegalStudies,January1998:221-243
DavidMustard,TheImpactofGunLawsonPoliceDeaths,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.
BruceL.BensonandBrentD.Mast,PrivatelyProducedGeneralDeterrence,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.
FlorenzPlassmannandT.NicolausTideman,DoestheRighttoCarryConcealedHandgunsDeterCountableCrimes?:OnlyaCountAnalysisCanSay,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.
CarlisleE.Moody,TestingfortheEffectsofConcealedWeaponsLaws:SpecificationErrorsandRobustness,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.
DavidE.OlsonandMichaelD.Maltz,Right-to-CarryConcealedWeaponLawsandHomicideinLargeU.S.Counties:TheEffectonWeaponTypes,VictimCharacteristics,andVictim-OffenderRelationships,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.
ThomasB.Marvell,TheImpactofBanningJuvenileGunPossession,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001.
JohnR.Lott,Jr.andJohnE.Whitley,Safe-StorageGunLaws:AccidentalDeaths,Suicides,andCrime,JournalofLawandEconomics,October2001
JohnR.Lott,Jr.andJohnE.Whitley,MeasurementErrorinCounty-LevelUCR
37
Data,JournalofQuantitativeCriminology,June2003,Volume19,Issue2,pp185-198
FlorenzPlassmannandJohnWhitley,ConfirmingMoreGuns,LessCrime,StanfordLawReview,2003
EricHellandandAlexanderTabarrok,UsingPlaceboLawstoTest“MoreGuns,LessCrime,”AdvancesinEconomicAnalysisandPolicy,4(1):Article1,2004.
JohnR.Lott,Jr.andWilliamLandes,MultipleVictimPublicShootings,Bombings,andRight-to-CarryConcealedHandgunLaws:ContrastingPrivateandPublicLawEnforcement,publishedinTheBiasAgainstGuns(2003).
FlorenzPlassmannandJohnR.Lott,Jr.,MoreReadersofGunMagazines,ButNotMoreCrimes.
JohnRLott,Jr.,“MoreGuns,LessCrime”(UniversityofChicagoPress,2010,3rdedition).
CarlisleE.Moody,ThomasB.Marvell,PaulRZimmerman,andFasilAlemante,“TheDebateonShall-IssueLaws,”ReviewofEconomics&Finance,2014
MarkGius,“Anexaminationoftheeffectsofconcealedweaponslawsandassaultweaponsbansonstate-levelmurderrates,”AppliedEconomicsLetters,Volume21,Issue4,2014
CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“TheDebateonShall-IssueLaws,”EconJournalWatch,volume5,number3,September2008Itisalsoavailablehere.
CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“TheDebateonShallIssueLaws,Continued,”EconJournalWatch,Volume6,Number2May2009
CarlisleE.Moody,ThomasB.Marvell,andJohnR.Lott,Jr.,“DidJohnLottProvideBadDatatotheNRC?ANoteonAneja,Donohue,andZhang,”EconJournalWatch,Volume10,Number1,January2013
CarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,“OntheChoiceofControlVariablesintheCrimeEquation”byCarlisleE.MoodyandThomasB.Marvell,OxfordBulletinofEconomicsandStatistics,Volume72,Issue5,pages696–715,October2010.
JohnR.Lott,Jr.,MoreGuns,LessCrime:AResponsetoAyresandDonohue’s1999
38
bookreviewintheAmericanLawandEconomicsReview,YaleLaw&EconomicsResearchPaperNo.247,1999.
JohnR.Lott,Jr.,Right-to-CarryLawsandViolentCrimeRevisited:Clustering,MeasurementError,andState-by-StateBreakdowns,AmericanEnterpriseInstituteWorkingpaper,2004.
JohnR.Lott,Jr.,Commenton'TheDeterrenceofCrimeThroughPrivateSecurityEfforts:TheoryandEvidence',CrimePreventionResearchCenter,November2014.
39
Academicadvisoryboard
WilliamM.LandesistheCliftonR.MusserProfessorEmeritusofLawandEconomics,andSeniorLecturerattheUniversityofChicagoLawSchool.Mr.Landeshaswrittenwidelyontheapplicationofeconomicsandquantitativemethodstolawandlegalinstitutions,includingmultiplevictimpublicshootings,hijackingofairplanes,andthebailsystem.LandeshasbeenaneditoroftheJournalofLawandEconomics(1975–1991)andtheJournalofLegalStudies(1991–2000),ispastpresidentoftheAmericanLawandEconomicsAssociation,andisamemberoftheAmericanEconomicAssociation,theMontPelerinSociety,andtheCouncilofEconomicAdvisersoftheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute.HeisalsoaFellowoftheAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciences.
J.ScottArmstrongisaprofessorattheWhartonBusinessSchooloftheUniversityofPennsylvania.Heisinternationallyknownforhispioneeringworkonforecastingmethods.Mostrecently,hisresearchactivitieshaveinvolvedforecastingforterrorismandconflicts.HeisauthorofLong-RangeForecasting,themostfrequentlycitedbookonforecastingmethods.Heisaco-founderoftheJournalofForecasting,theInternationalJournalofForecasting,theInternationalSymposiumonForecasting,andforecastingprinciples.com.Heisaco-developerofnewmethodsincludingrule-basedforecasting,causalforcesforextrapolation,simulatedinteraction,structuredanalogies,andthe“indexmethod.”Inadditiontoforecasting,ProfessorArmstronghaspublishedpapersonsurveyresearch,educationalmethods,appliedstatistics,socialresponsibility,strategicplanning,andscientificpeerreview.
ArthurZ.Berg,M.D.isaDistinguishedLifeFellowoftheAmericanPsychiatricAssociationandformermemberoftheAPAViolenceTaskForce.HewasfoundingPsychiatrist-in-ChiefatBeverlyHospital(emeritus)andformerAssociateProfessorofPsychiatryatHarvardMedicalSchool.ArecentarticlethatDr.BerghadintheWallStreetJournalonmultiplevictimpublicshootingsisavailablehere.
TimGrosecloseistheMarvinHoffenbergProfessorofAmericanPoliticsatUCLA.Heholdsappointmentsinthepoliticalscienceandeconomicsdepartmentsattheuniversity.In1987,hereceivedhisB.S.inMathematicalSciencesfromStanfordUniversity.In1992,hereceivedhisPhDfromStanford’sGraduateSchoolofBusiness.HeistheauthorofovertwodozenscholarlyarticlesaswellasthebookLeftTurn:HowLiberalMediaBiasDistortstheAmericanMind.Giventheextensivemediabiasonguns,ProfessorGroseclose’sexpertiseonidentifyingmediabiaswillbeimportant.Hecontributestotheblog,www.Ricochet.com,and
40
isanactivetweeterat@Tim_Groseclose(https://twitter.com/Tim_Groseclose).Youcanlearnmoreabouthimandhiswritingsatwww.timgroseclose.com.
JonathanM.KarpoffistheWashingtonMutualEndowedChairinInnovationProfessorofFinanceattheUniversityofWashingtonFosterSchoolofBusiness.Karpoffhaspublishedpathbreakingresearchonthetopicsofcorporatecrimeandpunishmentaswellascorporategovernance.HeistheassociateeditorfortheJournalofFinance,JournalofFinancialEconomics,JournalofFinancialandQuantitativeAnalysis,ManagementScience,ManagerialandDecisionSciences,andTheNorthAmericanJournalofEconomicsandFinance.Hehasreceivedalonglistofacademicawards.
JoyceLeeMalcolmisthePatrickHenryProfessorofConstitutionalLawandtheSecondAmendmentatGeorgeMasonUniversityLawSchool.ShehasaPh.D.inhistoryandisinternationallyknownforherbooksGunsandViolence:TheEnglishExperience,HarvardUniversityPress(November24,2004),andToKeepandBearArms:TheOriginsofanAnglo-AmericanRight,HarvardUniversityPress(March2,1996).GunsandViolenceprovidesacomprehensivehistoryandexaminationofchangesinmurderratesinEnglandfromthemiddleagestothecurrentday.SheisaFellowoftheRoyalHistoricalSociety,andshehasheldpositionsatPrincetonUniversity,theMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,andCambridgeUniversity.MalcolmalsoservedastheDirector,DivisionofResearchProgramsfortheNationalEndowmentfortheHumanitiesduring2005-2006.
ScottE.MastenisProfessorofBusinessEconomicsandPublicPolicyintheUniversityofMichiganStephenM.RossSchoolofBusiness,wherehehasbeenafacultymembersince1984.Aleadingscholarintheareaoftransactioncosteconomics,ProfessorMasten’sresearchfocusesonissuesattheintersectionoflaw,economics,andorganization.Inadditiontohisprimaryappointment,hehasheldappointmentsastheLouisandMyrtleMoskowitzResearchProfessorinBusinessandLawatMichigan,JohnM.OlinFacultyResearchFellowatYaleLawSchool,JohnM.OlinDistinguishedVisitingProfessorofLawattheUniversityofVirginiaLawSchool,andVisitingProfessorintheUniversityofMichiganLawSchool.HewasPresidentoftheInternationalSocietyforNewInstitutionalEconomicsin2008-09,isaco-editoroftheJournalofEconomics&ManagementStrategy,andservesontheeditorialboardsoftheJournalofLaw,Economics&OrganizationandManagerialandDecisionEconomics
CarlMoody,ProfessorofEconomics,William&Mary.ProfessorMoodyhaspublishedextensivelyontherelationshipsbetweenguns,crimeand
41
imprisonmentinsuchacademicjournalsasCriminology,HomicideStudies,theJournalofLawandEconomics,theJournalofLegalStudies,andtheJournalofQuantitativeCriminology.Heteachesmathematicaleconomicsandeconometrics.
PaulH.RubinistheSamuelCandlerDobbsProfessorofEconomicsatEmoryUniversity,andEditorinChiefofManagerialandDecisionEconomics.HehasbeenpresidentoftheSouthernEconomicAssociation.Hisresearchinterestshaveincludedcrime,thedeathpenalty,andguncontrol.HereceivedhisB.A.fromtheUniversityofCincinnatiin1963andhisPh.D.fromPurdueUniversityin1970.HeisaFellowofthePublicChoiceSociety,aSeniorFellowattheProgressandFreedomFoundation,anAdjunctScholarattheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteandtheGeorgiaPublicPolicyFoundation,andformerVicePresidentoftheSouthernEconomicsAssociation.Dr.RubinhasbeenSeniorStaffEconomistatPresidentReagan’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers,ChiefEconomistattheU.S.ConsumerProductSafetyCommission,DirectorofAdvertisingEconomicsattheFederalTradeCommission,andvice-presidentofGlassman-OliverEconomicConsultants,Inc.,alitigationconsultingfirminWashington.
