CONCLUSION

Two tasks were set in this study: to ascertain the nature of

Chinese policy towards Pakistan during the period from 1969 to 1979,

and to provide explanations for the continuity and/or changes in this

policy. The findings on the first point have been summarised in the

beginning of Part III. However, a recapitulation is in order to

provide a better understanding of the situation.

Within the South Asian context, Chinese relations with Pakistan

are a rare phenomenon. Unlike its links with India which graduated

from amity to enmity witin a period of eight years (i.e.) 1954 to

1962), China's friendly relations with Pakistan have survived beyond

two decades. Even twenty three years after the conclusion of

Sino-Pakistani border, trade and air-travel agreements, the Chinese

Government and media frequently underscore the amity between Beijing

and Islamabad. The Pakistan Government and media also periodically

repeat this theme. Notwithstanding·· these claims and the commonly

held assumption that the Beijing-Islamabad axis is a constant factor

in South Asian and international politics, the fact remains that

Sino-Pakistan relations have not been devoid of fluctuations. This

becomes evident with the examination of Chinese support for Pakistan

during the 1969-1979 period. So marked are the fluctuations in the

level of Beijing's political, economic and military assistance to

Pakistan that the period under review can be categorised into seven

rather distinct phases.

The first phase, which lasted from early 1969 till 1970, was

essentially the continuation of China's Pakistan policy of the

mid-1960s. To the consternation of New Delhi, Islamabad's stand on

the Kashmir issue was supported and India's assertions of sovereignty

over the princely state questioned. At the same time, an

interest-free loan worth US$40.6 million with a grant ratio of 67.89%

374

was extended to Pakistan. Significantly, supplies of Chinese major

weapons including T-59 and PT-76 tanks, and MIG-19s were resumed

after an interval of three years.

The second phase, which began towards the end of 1970 and

continued until the first half of November 1971, was characterised by

reduced Chinese support for Pakistan. On the Kashmir issue, the

phraseology used to express Beijing' s support for Pakistan began to

lack the customary references indicating China's resolve to always

continue this policy. More importantly, Pakistan was provided with

extremely qualified support against India on the East Pakistan

crisis. There was an obvious unwillingness to repeat Islamabad's

allegations that New Delhi was conspiring with and supplying arms to

the Awami League, that the Pakistan Army's crackdown was directed

against this conspiracy, that the Bangladesh Government was a figment

of India's imagination, and that India was raising the refugee issue

to justify its interference in Pakistan's internal affairs and to

receive economic assistance for its own economic development.

Beijing was also noticeably cautious not to express its support for

Pakistan's territorial integrity --- the major issue at stake in the

East Pakistan crisis. Significantly, China extended Pakistan a loan

worth US$271.391 million with a 67.69% grant ratio, but expressed its

inability to commit itself to supplying any additional major weapons

once the delivery of those already agreed to in early 1970 was

completed.

The third phase, which began in the second half of November 1971

and lasted approximately until the turn of 1974, witnessed a return

to the 'Pakistan-centric' policy by China. Initially, during the

outbreak of the 'undeclared' Indo-Pakistan war, the Chinese

Government restricted itself to repeating Pakistan's allegations

against the Indian role in the East Pakistan crisis, and to stressing

375

that these actions deserved serious condemnation. Once the

'declared' Indo-Pakistan war started on 3 December 1971, for the

first time in eight months, Beijing expressed its firm support for

Pakistan's territorial integrity. At the same time., it supported

Pakistan at the United Nations. India, it insisted, was an aggressor

and, therefore, should be condemned for aggression, and both India

and Pakistan should withdraw their forces to their respective

territories. More importantly, China engaged in behind-the-scenes

diplomacy and supported the U.s. attempts to ensure that India was

prevented from implementing its rumoured plan of capturing Kashmir

and mounting a major attack on West Pakistan after occupying the

eastern wing.

It was, however, after the bifurcation of Pakistan on 16

December 1971 that the Chinese Government provided Islamabad the

maximum support in the period under review. It vetoed Bangladesh' s

admission to the United Nations and .insisted that the nascent South

Asian state's entry into the international organisation would not be

approved by Beijing prior to the total implementation of the UN

resolutions passed during the Indo-Pakistan war (1971). By doing so,

it ensured that India, which was interested in securing Dhaka's entry

into the United Nations, was prevented from exploiting 93,000

Pakistani prisoners and occupation of 5,000 square miles of

Pakistan's territory as bargaining chips to settle the Kashmir issue

on New Delhi's terms. Simultaneously, in addition to equipping

Pakistan's air force and army with approximately 70 MIG-19 aircraft

and 40 0 T-59 tanks, Beijing also undertook assisting Pakistan in

setting up its own tank and aircraft overhauling and rebuilding

complexes. At the same time, China took a decision to convert four

project-cum-commodity loans amounting to US$110.4 million into grants

and deferred the repayment of the November 1970 loan for twenty years

thus raising its grant ratio from 67.68% to 82.12%.

376

The fourth phase was essentialy similar to the third. Beijing

persisted in its policy of supporting Pakistan on political issues.

It sided with Islamabad on the Kashmir issue and supported Pakistan's

proposal put forth in the General Assembly for declaring South Asia a

nuclear-weapon free zone. Beijing also continued supplying Pakistan

with T-59 tanks and MIG-19 aircraft as well as assisting it in

developing a defence infrastructure. The policy of assisting

Pakistan in setting up developmental projects also continued. This

phase, which lasted until the turn of 1976, differed from the third

phase in one respect. It witnessed India' s entry into the nuclear

club and the Chinese reluctance to openly concede to Pakistan's

request for extending the nuclear umbrella.

That this reluctance to support Pakistan against its major

adversary, India, was to be the rule and not an exception was amply

demonstrated in the fifth phase which lasted from early 1976 to the

end of 1978. China markedly reduc~d the level of its support for

Pakistan on various political issues. There was apparent reluctance

on Beijing's part to consistently identify itself with Islamabad's

position on the Kashmir dispute. The same reluctance was exhibited

with respect to Pakistan's proposal for declaring South Asia a

nuclear-weapon free zone. Even the emergence of a pro-&oviet regime

in Kabul and its revival of the Pushtunistan issue failed to elicit

direct and

Afghanistan.

categorical Chinese support for Pakistan against

Neither did China supply any major weapons to Pakistan

during this phase. Also, in marked departure from the past, Beijing

began extending loans of nominal value on stringent terms.

The sixth phase once again witnessed a return to a pro-Pakistan

policy. The Chinese Government and media consistently supported

Pakistan against the Soviet and Afghan allegations that the Zia

regime was permitting China, the United States, and various other

377

'reactionary' states the-use of Pakistani territory for training and

arming Afghan guerrillas. This phase, which lasted from early to

mid-September 1978, however, did not witness a revival of Chinese

support for Pakistan on the issues involving India. Neither did it

see a resumption of major Chinese weapons supplies to Pakistan nor

was any new loan, even of a nominal value, extended.

The seventh and last phase, with the shortest duration, lasted

only for the period of Hafizullah Amin's rule in Afghanistan. During

this phase, as in the previous, China shied away from consistently

supporting Pakistan against India. In fact, it even ceased to

support Pakistan against Soviet allegations of Islamabad's role in

the Afghan guerilla warfare. However, it did begin negotiations with

Pakistan for the sale of F-6(bis) aircraft.

These fluctuations in the level of Chinese support for Pakistan,

this study has attempted to prove, can be explained within the

framework of Beijing's fear of, and the strategies devised to

counter, perceived threat of encirclement from China's opponent( s).

In the 1950s, it has argued, Beijing perceived the United States as

attempting to encircle China. To counter this perceived threat, the

Chinese Government devised a strategy which, firstly, envisaged a

close relationship with the Soviet Union. Secondly, it attempted to

improve relations with the neighbouring states in order to reduce the

American influence in countries already co-opted into the western

alliance system and to prevent the neutral states from joining hands

with the United States • Within the framework of this strategy, in

South Asia Beijing established close relations with India and, at the

same time, pursued a 'correct' policy towards Pakistan, a member of

both SEATO and CENTO. In the 1960s, as the Sino-Soviet differences

surfaced, Beijing came to view both the u.s. and the Soviet Union as

attempting to encircle China. Since India, with which Chinese

378

relations had deteriorated at the turn of the 1960s, was viewed as

the point where the U.S.-Soviet encirclement attempts intersected,

the Chinese Government moved to establish a closer relationship with

New Delhi's major adversary, Pakistan. Not only was a border

agreement concluded, but Pakistan was also singled out as the first

non-communist state to operate flights to China. More importantly,

Beijing also began to support Pakistan's stand on the Kashmir issue.

The climax, however, came in the mid-1960s when, during the

Indo-Pakistan war, the Chinese Government issued an ultimatum to

India in order to extricate Pakistan from the possibility of a

defeat. Soon afterwards, Beijing also assumed the role of a major

supplier of arms to Pakistan.

Towards the end of the 1960s, however, Beijing's threat

perception once again underwent a change. The Soviet Union, with

which China had major border clashes in 1969, was now perceived as

the only state attempting to enci.rcle China. To counter this

perceived threat, the moderates advocated a new strategy with two

major components; at global level, they favoured a policy of

improving relations with the United States. At regional level, they

argued in favour of once again attempting to improve relations with

neighbouring states. This time the attempt was directed at

neutralising the Soviet influence in states already friendly with

Moscow, and at preventing the 'non-committed' states from

establishing close economic, military and political links with the

Soviet Union. During the immediate aftermath of the Cultural

Revolution, however, the radicals who were in ascendancy opposed this

strategy. Globally, they favoured the idea of opposing both the

Soviet Union and the United States. Regionally, in South Asia they

advocated the continuation of the mid-1960s' policy India was

opposed, ~d Pakistan was favoured. Hence, during 'Phase I',

379

Pakistan was not only supported against India on the Kashmir issue

but it was also provided military and economic assistance. This

situation underwent a change towards the end of 1969 and early 1970.

Soon after gaining ascendancy, the moderates in China began moves to

improve relations with India. As these moves showed signs of

success, the Chinese Government also began to move away from a

'Pakistan-centric' policy. It was within the framework of this 'new'

South Asian policy that the Chinese Government reduced the level of

its support for Pakistan during Phase II. Towards the end of 1971,

however, as the Indian Government attempted to dismember Pakistan

with Soviet help, the Chinese Government temporarily shelved its

'new' South Asian policy and began to support Pakistan against India.

Once Pakistan was dismembered, China's need for supporting Pakistan

further increased. Beijing now perceived the situation as one in

which Moscow had succeeded in increasing its influence in India and

the newly born state of Bangladesh~· Pakistan was the only South

Asian state which was not viewed as being under Soviet influence but,

beset with a number of political, economic and militarly problems in

the innnediate aftermath of the dismemberment, was considered

vulnerable to Soviet influence. Since Pakistan's 'tilt' towards the

Soviet Union would have completely blocked Chinese influence from its

Southwestern borders, Beijing provided its maximum suport to Pakistan

in Phase III.

Once, however, Pakistan solved most of its problems resulting

from the 1971 war, the Chinese Government once again initiated a slow

and guarded move back to its 'new' South Asian policy. Nevertheless,

its perception of the South Asian situation essentially remained the

same. India and Bangladesh were still deemed closer to the Soviet

Union and the possibility of Pakistan turning towards the Soviet

Union was still deemed to exist. To counter this possibility Beijing

380

supported Islamabad economically and militarily. It also persisted

in its policy of supporting Islamabad on various political issues.

Towards the end of 1975 and early 1976, however, as Indo-Soviet

economic relations began to show signs of strain, Chinese perception

of India began undergoing a change. India was still viewed as close

to the Soviet Union. However, the relationship was not deemed devoid

of contradictions. To exploit these contradictions, the Chinese

Government hastened its moves to normalise relations with India. The

Indian Government responded favourably to these moves and agreed, in

mid-April 1976, to upgrade diplomatic relations to ambassadorial

level. Following this major breakthrough, convinced that the pace of

Sino-Indian rapprochement would not be sustained until India was

convinced of China's 'genuine' interest in normalising relations,

Beijing began to move away from the 'Pakistan-Centric' policy. This

accounted primarily for a marked reduction in the level of China's

political, military and economic support for Pakistan during the

fifth phase. The reluctance to support Pakistan against the Taraki

regime's revival of the Pushtunistan issue, however, stemmed from

Beijing's interest in keeping its options open vis-a-vis the new

pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. In any case, China considered the Shah's

Iran better able than Pakistan to counter Soviet expansionism in the

region.

The Afghan Government's decision to sign a Treaty of Friendship,

which coincided with similar Soviet treaties with Vietnam and

Ethiopia, however, changed the situation. Beijing now began to fear

that the Soviet Union was attempting to use its links with

Afghanistan to expand its influence both in the direction of the Horn

of Africa and Southeast Asia. To counter this perceived probability

at a stage when a new and rather unfriendly regime had gained power

in Iran, the Chinese Government once again began to rely on Pakistan.

381

China's need for Pakistan as a major base to train and arm Afghan

guerrillas accounted primarily for a return to a pro-Pakistan policy

in the Sixth phase.

The palace coup in Afghanistan and Amin' s rise to power in

mid-September 1979, however, once again changed the situation. As

the prospects of a more nationalistic and independent regime staying

in power seemed bright, the Chinese Government once again withdrew

its support for Pakistan against the Soviet allegations of Pakistan's

complicity in the anti-Saur revolution activities. This trend,

<however, also proved to be shortlived. On 27 December 1979, the

Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and the Chinese Government once

again . ~verted to a policy of siding with Islamabad against Kabul.

To state that the fluctuations in China's policy towards

Pakistan during the 1969-1979 period can primarily be explained in

terms of Beijing's perception of the Soviet Union as attempting to

encircle China and its strategy to qounter these attempts, however,

is not to suggest that Sino-Pakistani relations are cushioned against

being affected by all other forces. On the contrary, various other

factors have also played a significant, if not a major role, in

determining Beijing's Pakistan policy. During the East Pakistan

Crisis ( 1971), for instance, the Chinese Government did not approve

of the manner in which the Yahya regime was handling the situation in

the eastern wing. Neither was it ignorant of the possibility of a

relatively radical government gaining power in Bangladesh if events

were allowed to take their own course. Thus, it decided, despite

Pakistan's requests and professions to the contrary, to provide only

extremely qualified support to Pakistan against the Indian attempts

to exploit the East Pakistan crisis. Similarly, in the third phase,

Beijing vociferously supported Pakistan at the United Nations partly

to convince other Third World states that, unlike the Soviet Union,

382

the Chinese Government abided by principles and did not intend

encouraging secessionism --- a problem frequently faced by developing

states with a number of nationality problems. Also in the fourth

phase, the fear that any categorical support for Pakistan against the

Indian nuclear explosion might raise the spectre of a Sino-Pakistan

nuclear collaboration and prompt India to develop nuclear weapons was

instrumental in preventing Beijing from responding to Pakistan's call

for the 'nuclear umbrella'.

The major question which arises from the above description and

analysis of Sino-Pakistan relations during the 1969-1979 period,

however, relates to the future of Chinese policy towards Pakistan.

Making predictions on the basis · of past patterns is

always fraught with danger. Nevertheless, on the basis of the

findings of this study, it can be stated that China's Pakistan policy

is part of its South Asian policy which, in turn, is a part of

China's strategy of countering any perceived Soviet attempts to

encircle China. Since for the foreseeable future, despite occasional

signs of a thaw in Sino-Soviet relations, Beijing's relations with

Moscow are likely to remain strained, it can be safely stated that

the Chinese Government would persist in its attempts to neutralise

India's relations with the Soviet Union. Hence, it will continue to

retain its interest in moving away from a 'Pakistan-Centric' policy

and pursuing the 'new' South Asian policy, outlines of which have

been emerging since late 1970 and especially since 1976. Translated

into practical terms, China will continue to avoid entangling itself

in the disputes involving the two South Asian adversaries, and will

encourage them to further normalise relations with each other.

Concurrently, however, barring major changes in Afghanistan, the

Chinese Government will require Pakistani terri tory to arm and train

Afghan guerrillas. This is especially so because the Soviets,

383

following Chinese attempts to use the Sino-Afghan border for

smuggling weapons into Afghanistan, have occupied and virtually

annexed the Wakhan Corridor. Therefore, most likely in the

forseeable future, China is going to continue supporting Pakistan

against Afghanistan and professing that the Sino-Pakistan

relationship is based on principles and not affected by the

exigencies of time.

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404

THESES

1 • Ahmed , Sam ina, .::Th;;:,;;_:e:.._.::S.::o....:v..::i:..:e:..:t:.._.::F.::a..::c:..:t:.:o:..:r:__.::i::.n::.._:P:...a::.k:.:.::i:.::s:..:t:.:a::,:n~' s:::........:R:.::e:..:l:..:a::t:;:.1::.' o=n~s ( 1978- ) • , M.A. Thesis, (Canberra: Australian National University, 1982)

2. Akbaruddin, Syed, Autonomy and Dependence in India's Relations With the Soviet Union since the Treaty of 1971, M.A. Thesis, (Canberra: Australian National University, 1984)

3 • Chaudhury, Iftekhar, Bangladesh's "Jxternal Relations: The Strategy of a small Power in a Subsystem, Ph.D Thesis, (Canberra: Australian National University, 1980)

4. Chowdhury, I.A., Pakistan's Western Alliance in the 1950's and 1960's, M.A.Thesis, (Canberra: Australian National Universtiy, 1977)

5. Clark, Ian, Soviet Policy Towards India and Pakistan: 1965-71, PhD Thesis, (Canberra: Australian National University, 1974)

6. Ju, w.J., The Rise And Fall of the Djakarta-Peking Axis, Ph.D Thesis, (Mississippi, State University, 1967)

7. Male, Beverly M., Pakistan's Relations With the Middle ~' Ph.D Thesis 1 ( C~Y'\hewo.. : Plv.::,v ... ·e>-I;CI\"1 ".lo..T~'o,,o.\ t.\'"'"€C"''I>;\'), \(\t;q),

'6. Sidky ·, Mohammed Habib, The Theory and Conduct of Chinese Foreign Policy in South Asia; Peking's Relations With Pakistan and Afghanistan, 1970-1976, Ph.D Thesis, (Florida: University of Miami, 1978)

?J • Yasmeen, Samina, Pakistani's Relations With China: 1947-1979, M.A. Thesis, (Canberra: Australian National University, 1980)

REFERENCE WORKS AND YEARBOOKS

1. Asian Recorder

2. Documents on International Affairs: 1955, (London: Oxford University Press. 1956)

3. Jane's All the World's Aircraft,(London)

4. Janes's Weapon Systems, (London)

5. Jane's Fighting Ships, (London)

6. Keesing's Contemporary Archives

7. Strategic Survey, (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies)

405

8. The Military Balance, (IISS, London)

9. World Armaments and Disarmament Yearbook, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

10. World Military Expenditure and Arms Transfers 1968-1977, US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS

1. An Economic Profile of Mainland China, Vol I, Studies Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee. US Congress, 90th Congress, 1st Session. February 1967

2. BanglaDesh Documents, Vol I, (Madras: B.N.K. Press, n.d.)

3. China; International Trade Quarterly Review, CIA, National Foreign Assessment Center.

4. Jawaharlal Nehru's Speeches; 1949-1953, New Delhi: Government of India. Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, 1957.

5. An Economic Profile of Mainland China, Vol . 2, Studies prepared for the Joint Economic Committee US Congress, 90th Congress, 1st Session, February 1967 (Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1967)

6. Notes, Memoranda and Letters Exchanged and Agreements Signed Between the Government·· of India and China (White Paper) Vol. VI, (New Delhi: Government Of India, Ministry of External Affairs)

7. 'Tanazai Kashmir: Qartas-e-Abyad', (Islamabad: Goverment of Pakistan, 1976)

8. The Economics of National Priorities, Hearings Before the Subcommittee on Priorities and Economy in Government. Joint Economic Committee of Congress, 92 nd Congress, 1st Session, 1971.

9. The India-Pakistan Question; Kashmir: A Brief Study, (New York: United Nations, Permanent Mission of Pakistan, 1972)

10. The United States and the 1943-1953, Senate Document Session, 10 August 1953.

Korean no.74,

Problem, Documents: 83rd Congress 1st

11. Pakistan Econamic Survey, 1963-1983, (Islamabad: Government of Pakistan, Economic Advisor's Wing).

12. Paksitan Statistical Yearbook, 1963-1983, Statistics Division, Ministry of Finance, Planning & Provincial Coordination, Government of Pakistan

13. Quaid-i-Azam Mohamed Ali Jinnah: General of Pakistan - 1947-1948, Ltd I 1963)

Speeches (Karachi:

as Governor­Feroge Sons

406

14. US Policy With Respect to Mainland China, Hearings before the Committee on Foreign Relations. US Senate. 89th Congress, 2nd Session, March 1966

15. United States-China relations: A Strategy for the Future. Hearings. Subcommittees on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the House Committee on Foreign Relations. 91st Congress, 2nd Session. September-October 1970. Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Press Press, 1970.

16. United States Security Agreements and Commitments Abroad: Broader Aspects of US Commitments, Senate Hearings. Subcommittee on United States security Agreements and Commitments Abroad of the Committee on Foreign Relations, 91st Congress. Second Session. 24 November 1970.

17. White Paper on the Crisis in East Pakistan, Government of Pakistan, 5 August 1971

NEWSPAPERS AND OTHER PERIODICALS

The Age

Asia Week

Aussen Politik

Baltimore Sun

Christian Science Monitor

Congressional Quarterly

CUrrent Digest of Soviet Press

Dawn

Djakarta Times

The Economist

Far East Economic Review

Foreign Broadcasting Information Services: China

The Guardian

Hindu

The Japan Times

Kabul Times

The London Observer

Morning Tmes

New York Times

Pakistan Times

People's China

?urvey of Chinese Mainland Press

Statesman

407

BBC Summary of World Broadcast

Telegra12h

The Times of India

Washington Post

Washington Star

408