Dr. Jan SendzimirHead – Water and Resilience GroupRisk, Policy and Vulnerability Program

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Condition of the World’s Fisheries

OUTLINE

• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Adaptive Systems Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example

How to avoid tragedy of the commmons?

Answer no 1: State Control

Trust national actors not localsExternal, central authorities must impose rules for regional control.

How to avoid tragedy of the commmons?

Answer no 2: Privatization

Enforcement of rules

doesn’t come automatically

State Control and Privatization:High failure rate

GlobalAveragesCan Deceive

Sources: Primavera 1997, Rosenberry 1998, Kautsky et al. 2000

Thailand

Indonesia

Taiwan

India

China

Global Shrimp Aquaculture Production

The world mayseem robust butlocal regimes maynot be resilientand collapse

• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example• Adaptive Science

OUTLINE

Struggle to Govern the CommonsTragedy is not inevitable

Empirical Research:Local resource users can self‐organize 

to cooperatively develop their own institutional regulations to manage 

common pool resources in sustainable ways

Demonstrated in more than 500 case studies around the world e.g.:

Forests (India, Thailand)Fisheries (Brazil, Philippines, India, USA)

Irrigated Agriculture (India, Nepal).Many others

Elinor Ostrom

Sustainability requires integrating multiple perspectives

InternationalNational

Regional

Local

Subsidiarity

EnvironmentEconomySocial / Political / Cultural

But which perspectives?

Sustainability requires integrating multiple perspectives

Environmental Degradation in the Sahel results from

Environment Agricultural PracticesEconomy DemographicsSocial / Political / Cultural Culture

Source: Krebs, J., and M. J. Coe. 1985. Sahel famine: an ecological perspective. Nature 317:13‐14.

Inadequate Governance is responsible for

Environment FaminesEconomy Economic DisastersSocial / Political / Cultural Political Regime Behavior

Source: von Braun, J., T. Teklu, and P. Webb. 1999. Famine in Africa: causes, responses, andpreventions. Food Policy Statement No. 28. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D.C., USA. [online] URL: http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/FPS/ fps28.htm

Revitalizing Rural Africarequires investing in 3 areas

Environment NatureEconomy WealthSocial / Political / Cultural Power

Source: Anderson et al. (2002) Nature, wealth and power: emerging best practice for revitalizingrural Africa. United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Washington, D.C., USA.

OUTLINE

• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Adaptive Systems Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example

Ways of explaining reality

Events What just happened?

Events What just happened?

Patterns, TrendsWhat’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?

Ways of explaining reality

Ways of explaining reality

Events What just happened?

Patterns, TrendsWhat’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?

Systemic StructuresWhat are the forces at play contributing to these patterns?

Events

Patterns, Trends

Systemic Structures

Drought

Tree Trends – decline & rise

Environmental Quality

Soil Moisture

SoilFertility

Local Sense ofTree Ownership

Tree Cultivation+

Tree Density

++

Tree Growth. +

Tree Removal.

-

<Local Decisionand Enforcement

Capacity>

+

<Local andRegional Learningand Knowledge>

+

+

-

+

Wind Speed

ET

Fodder in fields

Crop Planting

LocalRainfall

Drought Durationand Intensity

+

-

+-

+

+

+

-

Livestock use ofFarmers' Fields

+

+

LocalAgrobiodiversity

+

+

+

Circular Causation:Known all over the World• French• Spanish• English• Dutch• German• Polish• Russian• Finnish• Hungarian• Arabic• Turkish

• Cercle vicieux• Circulo vicioso• Vicious circle• Vicieuze cirkel• Teufels kreis• Błedne koło• Porochnyi krug• Noidankehä• Ördögi kör• Daira farigha• Fasit Daire

Car TrafficVolume

Danger toBicycles

Ride car notbicycles

21

Assessment

PolicyFormulation

ManagementActions

Monitoring andEvaluation

as Test ofHypothesis

PolicyImplementation

Research and Management Linked in a Cycle of Integrated Learning

Adaptive Management

OUTLINE

• Challenges of Resource Management• The Promise of Social Science• Adaptive Systems Science• Afforestation of the Sahel: an example

Vegetation in Galma, Niger 

197519752003

More people andmore treesMore people andmore trees

Niger Population 4 million12 million

STUDYING SUCCESSFUL REGIME CHANGES

The Niger‐Nigeria Border: same ecosystem, different institutions 

Source: Google Earth, 2005

Niger

Nigeria

The people of Niger are doing something different.

50 km

Less Rain

More Rain

Reference Mode: Tree CoverDecline and then Recovery

2005200519751975

19551955

aa

bb cc

ab

c

Environmental Quality

Soil Moisture

SoilFertility

Local Sense ofTree Ownership

Tree Cultivation+

Tree Density

++

Tree Growth. +

Tree Removal.

-

<Local Decisionand Enforcement

Capacity>

+

<Local andRegional Learningand Knowledge>

+

+

-

+

Wind Speed

ET

Fodder in fields

Crop PlantingSuccess

LocalRainfall

Drought Durationand Intensity

+

-

+-

+

+

+

-

Livestock use ofFarmers' Fields

+

+

LocalAgrobiodiversity

+

+

+

Tree Dynamics in the Fields

Environmental Quality

Soil Moisture

SoilFertility

Local Sense ofTree Ownership

Tree Cultivation+

Tree Density

++

Tree Growth. +

Tree Removal.

-

<Local Decisionand Enforcement

Capacity>

+

<Local andRegional Learningand Knowledge>

+

+

-

+

Wind Speed

ET

Fodder in fields

Crop PlantingSuccess

LocalRainfall

Drought Durationand Intensity

+

-

+-

+

+

+

-

Livestock use ofFarmers' Fields

+

+

LocalAgrobiodiversity

+

+

+

Trees in Farmers’ Fields

Field Microclimate

Environmental Quality

SoilMoisture

Soil Fertility

Local Sense ofTree Ownership

Tree Cultivation

+

Tree Density+

+

Tree Growth +

TreeRemoval

-

+

WindSpeedET

Fodder in Fields

LocalRainfall

Drought Durationand Intensity

+

+

+

-

+ +

-

Livestock Use ofFarmers' Fields

+

+Agrobiodiversity

+

Field AirTemperature

Soil Erosion

+

-

Shelter fromFoliage

Pest PredatorPopulations

RootDepth

+

SoilNutrientRecycle

+

+ + BirdPopulations

+

--

-

Tree Theft

+

SeedBank

++

CultivatedArea

+

-

Local Learning,Decision and

Enforcement Capacity+

-

-

+Ra1

Ra2

Ra3

R1

R1

R1

Ra4

Ra5

NitrogenFixation

+

+

SeedSpreading

+

+

+

Sand Blasting

+

Need for Trees toIntensify Cultivation

+

Trees in Farmers’ Fields

Household Economy

Family FoodProduction

HouseholdIncome

+

ComplementaryIncomeSources

+

<Tree Density>

+Crop Yield

HouseholdSubsistence

Food Purchases

Food ExportFarmers'Livestock

-

-

+

+ +

+

Herders'Livestock

+

<CropPlantingSuccess>

+

FuelwoodAvailability

FuelwoodSales

+

+

+

ForagingTime

-

-

<FarmersLivestock Access

to DistantResources>

+

<Fodder infields>

+ <Farmers' Timeto MonitorHerders>

-+

Livestock

Need to MoveCattle overLarge Areas

Need for farmers -herder cooperation

ConflictsHerders/Farmers

Migration CorridorDemarcation

Trespassing onFarmer's Fields

Farmers LivestockAccess to Distant

Resources

Farmers'Time toMonitorHerders

Livestock Use ofFarmers' Fields

Fodderin Fields

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

Farmers'Livestock

Herders'Livestock

+

-

Herders'Participation inDecision-making

++

Competitionfor Fodder

-

+

Local Learning,Decision andEnforcement

Capacity

+

Tree Density

+

Bd1

Bd2

Bd3

+

Shelter fromFoliage

+++

+

Farmer – Herder Relations

Livestock

Cultivated Area

Trees & Environment

Family FoodProduction

HouseholdIncome

+

LocalComplementaryIncome Sources

+

Crop Yield

Food Stored(Security)

FoodPurchases

FoodSales

Farmers'Livestock

--

+ +

+

Herders'Livestock

Tree Products(Timber, Fuel,Leaves, Pods)

Sales of Trees,Timber, Fuelwood

+

+

WoodCollection

Time

-

-

BuildingConstructionand Repair

Migration forWork (to cities

or abroad)

+

FoodDemand

-Food

Supply Gap

+

Land Clearancefor Cultivation

FallowPeriod

TimberImports

-

+

-

Goats +

+

Population+

+

Perception of"Modern" Farming

(Ag ExtensionService)

+

EnvironmentalQuality

+

CropPlantingSuccess

+

+

-

+

-+

+

Cultivation ofMarginal Lands

-

+

+

-

-+

Farmers-HerdersRelations

+

+

+

-

TreeDensity

+

FieldMicroclimate

Bc1Bc2

Rc1

Rc2 Rc3

Rc4

Rc5

Bc3

Bc5

Bc4

Rc6

CropResidues

+

+

Area Availablefor Cultivation

-CultivatedArea Limit

+

Need for Trees toIntensify Cultivation

-

+

Flexibility in TreesManagement

+

Availabilityof SyntheticFertilizers

-

Demandfor ExportProducts

-

Community Economy

Regional Exchange

Farmers-Herders Relations

Trees & EnvironmentLocal Learning, Decision and Enforcement Capacity

Barriers from National (State) Level Household Economy

Local Sense ofTree Ownership

TreeCultivation

+Tree

Density

+

Sense ofLocal

Autonomy

Local Senseof Crisis

FamilyFood

ProductionHousehold

Income

R3

R4B1

B2

LocalComplementaryIncome Sources

+

+

R2

EnvironmentalQuality

+

+

+

InternationalSupport Funds

Image of Sahelin Crisis

+

-

-

TreeGrowth

+Tree

Removal

-

+

B3

Political andEconomicStability

-

+

Local SocialCapital

+

Need toOvercomethe Crisis

+

Livestock Useof Farmers'

Fields

Migration CorridorDemarcation

+

+

ConflictsHerders/Farmers

-

-

+

+

R1

+

NationalControl overResources

Pressure fromDonors for Local

Self-Reliance

+

--

+

French Colonial Legacy

+

GovernanceUncertainty

and Corruption

+

Population

FoodDemand+

National andIntl Initiatives

for LocalDevelopment

Communication betweenNational and Local levels

++

Ra2

Rb1

+

Rb2+

+

+

+

SeedExchange

TravelOpportunities+ Labor

Migration+

Outside FarmersVisit Locally+

+

LivestockCirculation

+

+

+

+

LocalMarkets

+

R6

Ra1

-

R5

CultivatedArea

+

+

-

Area Availablefor Cultivation

-

-

CultivatedArea Limit

+

Need for Treesto IntensifyCultivation

+

Flexibility in TreesManagement

++

Demandfor ExportProducts

-

Complex story thatworks at many levels

Socio-Politics

Socio-Politics

Socio-Politics

Ecology

Economy

Economy

ASSESSING HOW SUCCESSFUL REGIME CHANGE IS SECUREDNot one perfect model!A family of models tells a wider story

Agro-ecosystems

FragileRobust

Livelihood Support per Capita

Few options

Many options

GovernanceInstitution capacity to

respond to crisis

Low

High

19001900

19251925

1960196019751975

19871987

20052005

Dynamics of Resilience and VulnerabilityFor farmers and pastoralists in Maradi/Zinder regions of Niger (1900‐2000)

Ways of explaining reality

Events What just happened?

Patterns, TrendsWhat’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?

Systemic StructuresWhat are the forces at play contributing to these patterns?

Mental Models What about our thinking allows this situation to persist?

Niger‘s Rising Challenge

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Merci pour votre attention.

Thank you for your attention.

WP 1 – Project Coordination and Dissemination 

SusFish Burkina Project Organization

WP 6 – Education and Research

WP 2(IUCN)

(North and South Partners)

(BOKU and GDFR)

WP 4(GDFR)

WP 3(LAEB)

WP 7(IHSUB)

Systems Analysis & Scenario Development

Collect and analyze Data

Ecosystems

FishAssemblages

Water Qual.Parameters

ConservationStatus

SpeciesDiversity

Society

RepublicanAnd

TraditionalInstitutions

For Governance

Fisherman’sKnowledge

NationalPolicies

WP 5(DRSE)

BurkinabeFisheries

Stakeholders: Managers,

Policy Makers,and Users

WP 8(IIASA)

Data,Knowledge,

Advice

Sustainable FisheriesManagement Capacity

IndicatorsOf BioticIntegrity

Fisheries, Health,Food

Security