Conducting an Effects Analysis for System-Wide Evaluation

Conducting an Effects Analysis for System-Wide Evaluation of Endangered Species on the Missouri River Craig Fischenich ERDC Environmental Laboratory

Robb Jacobson USGS CERC

Kate Buenau Pacific Northwest Laboratories

CEER - 29 July, 2014

Innovative solutions for a safer, better world BUILDING STRONG®

Acknowledgements Corps ERDC USFWS Aaron Quinn Bobby McComass Carol Aron Carol Huber Christy Foran Carol Smith Christine Cieslik Craig Fischenich Clayton Ridenour Craig Fleming David Smith Dan James Dan Pridal Jack Killgore Jane Ledwin Don Meier Jan Hoover Tom Econopouly Doug Clemetson Rich Fischer Wayne Nelson-Stastny Doug Latka Todd Swannack Emily Nziramasanga USGS Jean Reed HEC Aaron DeLonay Jeff Tripe John Hickey Diana Papoulias Joe Bonneau Stan Gibson Kim Chojnacki John Shelley Mandy Annis Joshua Mellinger PNNL Mark Wildhaber Marian Baker Chris Murray Michael Colvin Michelle Whitney Chris Vernon Michael Parsley Paul Boyd Eric Oldenburg Pat Braaten Tim Welker Kate Buenau Robb Jacobson Todd Gemienhart Mike Anderson Travis Yonts Val Cullinan


Background Missouri River Recovery Program 2011 ISAP Report recommended an “effects

analysis” as described in Murphy and Weiland (2011)

2012 MRRIC consensus recommendation


Effects Analysis Refine conceptual ecological models to guide

development of hypotheses and quantitative models Compile and assess pertinent scientific and operational

information Identify hypothesized factors contributing to species

population dynamics Develop quantitative models for forecasting the effect of

different actions on listed species performance Conduct analyses to inform species objectives targets

and management actions Assess effectiveness of alternative management

strategies relative to the No Action condition

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3 Adaptive Management

CEMs, concepts

Design Monitoring, Assessment, Research

Adaptive Management Design Report

Pallid Sturgeon Update Loop

CEM, Hypothesis Processes

Document, Deliverable

Agency, MRRIC Input

Modeling Process

Information Gathering

AM Design Process

Pallid Sturgeon EA Sequence of Tasks

and TimelineKey

Hypothesis Reserve

Hypothesis Reserve

Working Population

Effects Model

Implement

Monitor

Assess

ImplementAdapt

Documents, Reporting

Information Evaluation

Hypotheses Evaluation

Research

Learning

Population Effects Report


Conceptual Models


CEMs to Population Viability

Conceptual Ecological Models (CEMs)

Juveniles Spawners RecrudescentSpawners

Broodstock

Gametes & Developing Embryos

Free Embryos

Exogenously Feeding Larvae & Age-0

Hatchery Yearlings

Hatchery Fingerlings

Stage Structured Population Model


Terns and Plovers Reasonably well-understood relationships

between habitat and population response Other factors contribute to productivity Flows to create/sustain habitat remain a critical

uncertainty


Examples of preliminary results

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Habitat construction effort

Habitat construction interacting with flow

Actions that increase egg/chick survival

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Frequencies of habitat-forming flows and amount of habitat created


Pallid Sturgeon

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Sources of information – lines of evidence • Theory: natural flow paradigm, resource partitioning,

niche utilization • Expert opinion: understanding from other rivers, other

species, from experience – “professional judgment” • Empirical evidence: laboratory or field evidence of

association, habitat selection; developmental rates; behavioral experiments

• Quantitative models: models constructed from theory, opinion, and/or empirical data to link management actions to biotic responses • We are striving for quantitative models but

quantitative models need to be based on a strong theoretical or empirical foundation to be useful.


Management Plan Analysis Effects Analysis

Plover Model

Reservoir Operations and Flows

Habitat & Socioeconomic Relationships

Navigation Agriculture

Tern Model

Pallid Model

River Form and Function

Costs

Structured Decision Making

Sediment

Adaptive Management

Capacity Environmental Conservation

Climate

Recreation

Thermal Power

Flood Risk

Alternative Conditions

H&H

Hydropower

Water Quality

Cultural Resources

Dredging

Tribal Resources

Water Supply Wastewater

Irrigation

Fish & Wildlife


Plovers

ResSim

HEC-EFM

Terns

Pallid

ADH & TUFLOW

HEC-RAS

PROACT

RAS Sediment

13

Climate

Alternative Conditions

Model Framework 1-D system model with embedded multi-dimensional models to inform/parameterize the systems models. Long-term improvement strategy

RAS/NSM CE-QUAL-

W2


Component-level Conceptual Model

Dominant: biological Multiple

Management

Hypotheses

Survival Survival

Remove Ft. Peck – drift, spawn, cue, flow

Naturalize Ft. Peck – drift, cue, flow

Temp control Ft. Peck – drift, growth

Sediment bypass Ft. Peck – predation

Remove, bypass, Intake, Cartersville - drift

Stocking management – genetic diversity

Drawdown Lake Sakakawea - drift

Management Hypotheses Expert Survey

More support Less support Uncertainty

Where WhatManagement Hypothesis Model Type

Short Name

Naturalized flow releases at Fort Peck will result in increased productivity through increased hydrologic connections with low-lying land and floodplains in the spring, and decreased velocities and bioenergetic demands on exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles during low flows in summer and fall.

Flow + Morph -> Habitats -> Food Production, energetic requirements -> Growth, survivalBIOENERGETICS

Naturalized flow releases at Fort Peck will result in increased reproductive success through increased aggregation and spawning success of adults. Flow + Morph + Sediment + Temperature -> Behavioral response -> Viable gametes

SPAWNING CUE

Reduction of mainstem Missouri flows from Fort Peck Dam during free embryo dispersal will decrease mainstem velocities and drift distance thereby decreasing downstream mortaliity of free embryos and exogenously feeding larvae.

Flow + Morph -> Disp Distance; + Temperature -> Destination @ settling; + Destination Quality -> Survival

DRIFT

Warmer flow releases at Fort Peck will increase system productivity and food resource availability, thereby increasing growth and condition of exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles.

Flow + Morph -> Habitats -> Food Production, energetic requirements -> Growth, survival BIOENERGETICS

Warmer flow releases from Fort Peck will increase growth rates, shorten drift distance, and increase survival of free embryos.


DRIFT

Sediment Bypass at Fort Peck or Other Sediment

Augmentation.

Installing sediment bypass at Fort Peck will increase and naturalize turbidity levels, resulting in decreased predation on embryos, free embryos, and exogenously feeding larvae.

Flow + Morph + Sediment + Temperature -> Behavioral response -> Mortality PREDATION

Stocking at optimal size classes will increase growth rates and survival of exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles. Stocking decision -> Population model -> Population growth/decrease? PROPAGATION

Stocking with appropriate parentage and genetic diversity will result in increased survival of embryos, free embryos, exogenously feeding larvae, and juveniles.

PROPAGATION

Lake Sakakawe

a

Operate Garrison Dam to draw down Lake

Sakakawea

Drawdown of Lake Sakakawea will increase effective drift distance, decreasing downstream mortaliity of free embryos and exogenously feeding larvae.


DRIFT

Naturalization of the flow regime at Gavins Point will improve flow cues in spring for aggregation and spawning of reproductive adults. Flow + Morph + Sediment + Temperature -> Behavioral response -> Viable gametes

SPAWNING CUE

Naturalization of the flow regime at Gavins Point will improve connectivity with marginal habitats and low-lying lands, increase primary and secondary production, and increase growth and condition of exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles.


Naturalization of the flow regime at Gavins Point will decrease velocities and bioenergetic demands, resulting in increased growth and condition for exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles.


Alteration of the flow regime at Gavins Point can be optimized to decrease mainstem velocities, decrease effective drift distance, and minimize mortality.


DRIFT

Temperature Management at Fort Randall and Gavins

Point

Operation of a temperature management system at Fort Randall and/or Gavins Point will increase water temperature downstream of Gaivns Point, providing spawning cues for reproductive adults.

Flow + Morph + Sediment + Temperature -> Behavioral response -> Viable gametes SPAWNING CUE

Re-engineering of channel moprhology in selected reaches will create optimal spawning conditions -- substrate, hydraulics, and geometry -- to increase probability of successful spawning, fertilization, embryo incubation, and free-embryo retention.

Flow + Morph + Sediment + Temperature -> Behavioral response -> Viable gametes BIOENERGETICS

Re-engineering of channel morphology in selected reaches will increase channel complexity and bioenergetic conditions to increase prey density (invertebrates and native prey fish) for exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles.


Re-engineering of channel morphology will increase channel complexity and minimize bioenergetic requirements for resting and foraging of exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles.


Re-engineering of channel morphology in selected reaches will increase channel complexity and serve specifically to intercept and retain drifting free embryos in areas with sufficient prey for first feeding and for growth through juvenile stages.


Stocking at optimal size classes will increase growth rates and survival of exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles. Stocking decision -> Population model -> Population growth/decrease? PROPAGATION

Stocking of fish with appropriate genetic heritage and at river locations with appropriate habitats will increase growth and survival of exogenously feeding larvae and juveniles.

PROPAGATION

DRIFT

Working set of management hypotheses and model types.

Temperature Control, Multilevel-release Device

at Fort Peck

Yello

wst

one

Riv

er Construct Fish Passage at Intake on Yellowstone

River

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er M

isso

uri R

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Alter Flow Regime at Fort Peck

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Alter Flow Regime at Gavins Point

Channel Reconfiguration

Propagation Lower Basin

If (Passage + migration + spawning);Flow + Morph, Disp Distance; + Temperature -> Destination @ settling; + Destination Quality -> Survival

Upper Basin Propagation

Fish passage at Intake Dam on the Yellowstone will allow access to a additional functional spawning sites, increasing spawning success and effective drift distance, and decreasing downstream mortality of free embryos and exogenously feeding larvae.

Bioenergetics

Spawning cues

Drift/dispersal

Predation

Propagation

21 Hypotheses: Expand by Location, Expand by Life Stage Five core model types


Fort Peck Lake

Lake Sakakawea Missouri River

Lake Oahe

Montana

North Dakota

Intake Weir

Cartersville Weir

Vandalia Dam

Confirmed Confirmed

spawn

Lake Limits

Upstream Observation

Management Hypotheses to Free Embryo Survival Upper River

Management Working Hypotheses: • Upper Missouri

o Low flows from Fort Peck o Increased temperatures

from Fort Peck o Drawdown of Lake

Sakakawea • Yellowstone

o Provide passage at Intake o Drawdown of Lake

Sakakawea

Powder River


Operate Fort Peck to Decrease Discharge, Velocities, and Drift Distance • Definition: Slower velocities will allow for growth of

free embryos through first feeding and locomotion, contributing to survival.

• Evidence: Theory, lab studies, field drift experiments, computational models – no recruitment evident

• Models: HEC-RAS advection/dispersion

• Constraints: Flood control, water supply • Uncertainty: Moderate • Routing: Quantitative models to assess sensitivity,

effects, studies on anoxia, interstitial hiding

If (Migration + Spawning): Flow ± Morph ± Temperature ± Sediment -> (Destination + Stage @ Destination) -> Survival


Operate Garrison Dam to draw down Lake Sakakawea, increase drift distance • Definition: Increased drift/dispersion distance will

allow for growth of free embryos through first feeding and locomotion, contributing to survival.

• Evidence: Theory, lab studies, field drift experiments, computational models – no recruitment evident

• Models: HEC-RAS advection/dispersion

• Constraints: Flood control, water supply • Uncertainty: Moderate • Routing: Quantitative models supplemented with

field studies on anoxia and lab studies on interstitial hiding.

If (Migration + Spawning): Flow ± Morph ± Temperature ± Sediment -> (Destination + Stage @ Destination) -> Survival


Transient Storage (Dead) Zone

Main Channel

Transport Zone

1- and 2-Dimensional Transport W/Behavior

ADCP REACHES

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Upper vs Lower River (storage?) Lisbon-Jameson Reach (Detailed flow plus behavior) Other?

DRIFT


Advection/dispersion Model Free-embryo Drift

Destination = function of distance, drift velocity, (mostly f(water velocity, discharge), development (= f(temperature)) • At T50 = 18C, yolk plug expelled at 240 hours

• 10 days immediate drift • Or 5 days drift with interstitial hiding

• AT T90, yolk plug expelled at 216 hours • 9 days intermediate drift • Or 4 days drift with interstitial hiding

Q50 Ft. Peck

Drawdown + variation


Preliminary Effectiveness of Management Actions

Percent Larvae U/S of Pool at T = 4 Days Lake Sakakawea Pool Level

Flow HMin Min 10 50 90 Max

Exceed Ft. Peck 1805.0 1812.6 1821.6 1843.2 1850.4 1856.0

Min 3000 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 5 5500 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

10 6100 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 25 7150 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 50 8600 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% 97% 75 11000 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 92% 90 14400 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 80% 95 16100 100% 100% 100% 100% 89% 63%



Exceed Ft. Peck 1805.0 1812.6 1821.6 1843.2 1850.4 1856.0

Min 3000 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 70% 5 5500 100% 100% 97% 80% 33% 22%

10 6100 100% 99% 96% 75% 23% 14% 25 7150 99% 98% 91% 60% 11% 6% 50 8600 98% 96% 85% 49% 6% 4% 75 11000 98% 94% 83% 44% 3% 1% 90 14400 92% 86% 68% 30% 2% 0% 95 16100 85% 76% 57% 20% 1% 0%



Exceed Ft. Peck 1805.0 1812.6 1821.6 1843.2 1850.4 1856.0

Min 3000 21% 19% 6% 3% 1% 1% 5 5500 4% 5% 1% 1% 0% 0%

10 6100 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 25 7150 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 50 8600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 75 11000 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 90 14400 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95 16100 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%



Exceed Ft. Peck 1805.0 1812.6 1821.6 1843.2 1850.4 1856.0

Min 3000 92% 85% 60% 26% 7% 3% 5 5500 53% 41% 14% 6% 1% 1%

10 6100 47% 34% 11% 4% 0% 1% 25 7150 29% 20% 6% 2% 0% 0% 50 8600 16% 11% 3% 1% 0% 1% 75 11000 12% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 90 14400 5% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 95 16100 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%


Downstream built-out example: 2-d hydrodynamic model at Lisbon-Jameson Island, Missouri

Functional hab models: • Food produc • Foraging • Spawning • Larval retent


Quantification of functional interception habitat at confirmed age-0 high CPUE sites, LMOR


Adaptive Management Hypothesis routing: • Some hypotheses will have science information

of sufficient quality to support useful quantitative modeling, subject to caveats about hierarchical levels of information • Possibly sufficient information for decision making • May lend itself to limited experimental implementation • Uncertainties will persist to be addressed through

additional research, monitoring, and evaluation • Some hypotheses will have theoretical, expert

opinion, and/or statistical-empirical data, but not sufficient for quantitative modeling • Potentially route to learning actions, research, etc.


Lessons Learned

Conceptual models are the key to the process – invest the needed resources in their development

EA teams should make best use of available data and focused laboratory and field studies to reduce knowledge gaps and inform the modeling

Emphasize the importance of species performance measures as principal metrics for assessing success, but be prepared to rely upon habitat or other proxies

Implement within a structured adaptive management framework to permit routing of hypotheses with high uncertainty to active AM components

Allow more than 1 year for the execution!!


Questions?

Remaining slides are as needed for Q&A


Approach

Murphy, D. and Weiland, P. 2011. Environmental Management 47(2): 161-172.

Innovative solutions for a safer, better world BUILDING STRONG® 29

• Inputs Local inflows, routing coefficients, capacity tables, evaporation, “Rule Curves”

• Outputs System storage, pool elevations, flow, timing, other options

Hydrology (HEC-ResSim)

Simulates reservoir operations Five models represent the system


Hydraulics (HEC-RAS) One-dimensional modeling of river reaches Five separate models for Missouri River Multiple versions (steady/unsteady; sediment; WQ) Inputs: Geometry from LiDAR and bathymetry surveys

• Cross section every ~ 0.5 mile • Levee cells as storage areas

Floodplain and Channel Roughness Coefficients • Seasonal and flow related adjustments

Flow Inputs • Upstream flow (gage or ResSim Models) • Tributary flows (gage or ResSim Models) • Downstream boundary near St Louis

Outputs: Water surface elevation at half-mile spacing More than 100 user-selectable hydraulic variables Combine with DEM for additional maps & outputs


Geomorphic Assessment ESH Model (Gavins Pt. & Garrison)

► Improvements to stage-area relations ► Improvements to loss rate functions ► Intra-seasonal variation ► Long-term sediment supply

Added features: Bar elevation/daily stage Losses by mechanism Evolution coupled with discharge Long-term trend (supply/armoring) Sub-reach delineation


Geomorphic Assessment (RAS Sediment)

Sediment Supply ► Extension of ESH model

Channel Degradation ► Expand KC study

5-6 ft


Geomorphic Assessment Shallow Water Habitat Evolution

► Primarily a 2-D problem, solved with nested 2-D model analyses within a broader 1-D framework

► Reaches include Deer Island (AdH), Decatur Bend (AdH/Sed), Hamburg Bend (AdH/Sed), and Lisbon-Jameson (TUFLOW)

► See later slides for drift studies

Innovative solutions for a safer, better world BUILDING STRONG® 34

Habitat Modeling (HEC-EFM) Integrates output from ResSim, RAS, WQ and geomorph models with DEMs and other spatial data of interest to support species models.

Initial emphasis will be ESH modeling.

Sturgeon models will follow as habitat metrics evolve.

Considerable use of EFM for HC modeling efforts


Water Quality Analysis CEQUAL-W2 modeling of reservoirs RAS/NSM for river temp (turbidity, nutrients and

DO will be addressed in round 2)


Sandbar Habitat (ESH) Modeling Empirical Data and Observations

► Limited data for formation and growth (discharge/ duration); better for stage/area relations

► Ave size 14 ac 2010, 37 ac 2011; 30% fewer bars ► Erosion threshold function of formation discharge ► Loss rates correlated to shear stress, bar size & area,

and proximity to thalweg

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Sandbar Habitat (ESH) Modeling Sediment Model (Gavins Pt. to Sioux City)

► Long-term degradation / sediment supply issues (measured net loss 55 MCY 1995 – 2013) ► Will validate model versus above study results ► Gavins Pt model expected June 30; Garrison model

in Fall 2014 ESH model features: Bar elevation/daily stage Losses by mechanism Evolution coupled with discharge Long-term trend (supply/armoring) Sub-reach delineation