Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand

Chapter 4Phillip Kotler & Kevin Lane Keller

Prepared for:Universitas Ciputra

Marketing Research

is a systematic design collection, analysis and reporting of data and finding relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company

Suppliers of Marketing Research

Engaging Students or Professors to design and

carry out projects

Using the internet

Checking out rivals

Research Firms:

Syndicated-service research firms

Custom marketing research firms

Specialty-line marketing research firms

Marketing Research Process

1. Define the Problem & Research Objectives

Neither too broad nor too narrow

Three types of Objectives:

Exploratory Research

Descriptive Research

Causal Research

2. Develop Research Plan [1]

2. Develop Research Plan [2]

3. Collect the info

The need to achieve consistency

Cross-cultural research; the need

to use different approaches

Bias

4. Analyze the Info Test different hypotheses & theories Applying sensitivity analysis

5. Present Findings• Relevant to the need

6. Make the Decision

The next processes

Overcoming the Barriers to the Use of Marketing Research

A narrow conception of the research

Uneven caliber of the researcher

Poor framing of the problem

Late and occasionally erroneous findings

Personality and presentational difference

Measuring Marketing Productivity

Marketing Metric

Measuring Marketing Plan Performance

Profitability Analysis

Marketing Mix Modeling

Marketing Metric

The set of measures that help firm to quantify, compare and interpret their marketing performance (asses marketing effect)

1.Short-term result; eg. profit & loss, sales turnover, etc.

2.Changes brand equity; eg. customer awareness, attitude, behavior, marketing

share, etc.

External Internal Awareness of goal Commitment to goal Active innovation support Resources adequacy Staffing/skill level Desire to learn Willingness to change Freedom to fail Autonomy Relative employee

satisfaction

Sample of Marketing Metric

Awareness Market share (volume or

value) Relative price (volume or

value) Number of complaints (level of

dissatisfaction) Customer satisfaction Distribution/availability Total number of customers Perceived quality/esteem Loyalty/retention Relative/perceived quality

Measuring Marketing Plan Performance

Profitability Analysis

Forecasting & Demand Measurement

Measures Market Demand

Vocabulary for Demand Measurement

Estimating Current Demand

Estimating Future Demand

The Measures of Market Demand

Which Market to Measure?

Market: Actual Buyer + Potential Potential Market: Interest Available Market: Interest, Income, Access Target Market (served = target market) Penetrated Market (who are buying the

company’s product)

Estimating Future DemandThree stages Procedure:

Survey of Buyer’s Intentions

Forecasting: the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do under a given set of condition

Composite of sales force opinion Expert opinion (Group Discussion Method; Pooling of

Individual Estimates)

Past Sales Analysis (Time-Series Analysis; Exponential Smoothing; Statistical Demand Analysis; Econometric Analysis)

Market Test Method