Conference of the Economy 2008 Regional integration in an era of Globalization

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Conference of the Economy 2008

Regional integration in an era of Globalization

A Tribute to Dr Trevor Farrell

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Determinants of Beijing Medal Count and Revealed Comparative Advantage, Athletics and Building Social Cohesion in the CARICOM

Roger Hosein and Patrick Watson

Presented by Roger Hosein

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Introduction

For a small developing region like the CARICOM sports can promote a number of important developments. Sports can help in strengthening regional ties, engagement,

identity and pride. Sporting activities and events contribute to the

development of stronger social networks and more socially cohesive countries.

Sports provide opportunities for social engagement, often with alternative peer groups, which can create awareness of differences and break down barriers for individuals, communities and the region.

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Objective of Presentation

The main objectives of this study is 1) To determine the factors influencing medal outcomes

in the recently concluded Beijing Olympics. 2) To assess the Revealed Comparative Advantage

(RCA) of Caribbean economies with regards to their Olympic performances in the last 16 years.

3) To argue in favor of a more pronounced regional sporting agenda, led by athletics to help build a greater element of social cohesiveness in the region with the intention that this can form the basis for deeper economic integration.

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Ability to win medals

Fig 1: # of countries participation in the Olympics and % not winning a medal, 1896 -2008

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# of participating countries not winning a medal

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Socioeconomic factors affecting medal count

PopulationEconomic resources (income per capita)Hosting of the OlympicsLearning by doingPolitical structure of an economy Social conditions, e.g. literacyGender development index

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Regression estimates from various models: the dependent variable is medal count

Table 1: Regression Estimates

Regressors Coefficients with p values in brackets

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5

ln population 0.276 0.077 0.086 0.084 0.085

ln GDPPC 0.414 0.108 0.065 0.067 0.896

ln medal04 0.761 0.747 0.729 0.701

ln literacy 0.289 0.29 0.195a

host 0.349 0.298

communism 0.196

R sq. adj. 0.46 0.794 0.82 0.825 0.833

DW 2.09 2.2 2.2 2.15 2.09

a: Every variable in each of the model was significant at the 5% or less level (only the literacy variable in model 5 was significant at the 15% level)

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Histogram showing residuals for model

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-0.50 -0.25 -0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Series: ResidualsSample 1 197Observations 197

Mean 3.64e-17Median -0.001870Maximum 0.977477Minimum -0.668650Std. Dev. 0.202188Skewness 0.534739Kurtosis 6.662189

Jarque-Bera 119.4757Probability 0.000000

Figure 2: Residuals for Model

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Residual, actual and fitted values

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Residual Actual Fitted

Figure 3: Residual, Actual and Fitted Values

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Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Caribbean’s Specialization in Athletics

Balassa (1965) in an evaluation of the factors that determine the comparative advantage of an economy noted that, “Comparative advantage appears to be the outcome of a number of factors, some measurable, others not, some easily pinned down, others less so. One wonders, therefore, whether more could not be gained if instead of enunciating general principles and trying to apply these to explain actual trade flows, one took the observed pattern of trade as a point of departure.”

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Revealed Comparative Advantage and the CARICOM’s Specialization in Athletics

The Balassa index as utilized by Tscha and Pershin (2003) adapted for our purposes can be represented as illustrated in the formulation below:

Where

Mi : amount of medals won by country i Mij : Country’s i medal in sports j Tj : the number of medals won in sport j T : total number of medals won at the Olympics.

TjT

iMijMijR

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RCA Scores in cycling and various socio economic attributes of relevant economies, 2008

Table 2: RCA Scores for Cycling and other Socio Economic Factors

RCA cyclingPopulation (2008

est)

GDP, PPP (current international $ million ) -

2004GDI Score

(2005)HDI Score

(2005)

High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports)

2005

Argentina 2.96 40,482,000 372549.07 0.865 0.869 6.6

Denmark 2.53 5,484,723 173896.27 0.944 0.949 21.6

France 2.66 64,057,792 1768671.5 0.95 0.952 20.1

Germany 1.3 82,369,552 2465247.4 0.931 0.935 16..9

Great Britain 5.28 60,943,912 1862688.7 0.944 0.946 23.7

Italy 1.27 58,145,320 1595450 0.939 0.941 7.8

Latvia 5.91 2,245,423 26682.04 0.853 0.855 5.3

Netherlands 1.11 16,645,313 539600.3 0.951 0.953 30.1

New Zealand 3.94 4,173,460 98266.35 0.935 0.943 14.2

Poland 1.77 38,500,696 497409.8 0.867 0.87 3.8

Spain 3.94 40,491,052 1108107.3 0.944 0.949 7.1

Sweden 7.1 9,045,389 282110.39 0.955 0.956 16.7

Switzerland 11.83 7,581,520 255383.46 0.946 0.955 21.7

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RCA Scores in swimming and various socio economic properties of relevant economies, 2008

Table 3: RCA Scores for Swimming and other Socioeconomic Factors

RCA in

swimmingPopulation (2008

est)

GDP, PPP (current international $

million ) – 2004GDI Score

(2005) HDI Score (2005)

High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports) 2005

Australia 4.01 21,007,310 615325.21 0.96 0.962 12.7

Austria 3.07 8,205,533 270061.14 0.934 0.948 12.8

Brazil 1.23 196,342,592 1493336.5 0.798 0.8 12.8

Denmark 1.32 5,484,723 173896.27 0.944 0.949 21.6

France 1.38 64,057,792 1768671.5 0.95 0.952 20

Great Britain 1.18 60,943,912 1862688.7 0.944 0.946 28

Hungary 2.76 9,930,915 164252.48 0.872 0.874 24.5

Japan 1.84 127,288,416 3709826.5 0.942 0.953 22.5

Netherlands 1.15 16,645,313 539600.3 0.951 0.953 30.1

Norway 1.84 4,644,457 194204.62 0.957 0.968 17.3

Serbia 3.07 10,159,046 58776.99 Na na na

Slovenia 1.84 2,007,711 42901.52 0.914 0.917 4.6

Tunisia 9.21 10,383,577 60337.58 Na 0.766 4.9

United States 2.6 303,824,640 39699.56 0.937 0.951 31.8

Zimbabwe 9.21 11,350,111 na 0.505 0.513 0.9

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RCA Scores in athletics and various socio economic properties of relevant economies, 2008

Table 4 : RCA scores in Athletics and various socioeconomic attributes of relevant economies, 2008.

RCA athleticsPopulation (2008 est)

GDP, PPP (current international $ million ) – 2004

GDI Score (2005)

HDI Score (2005)

High-technology

exports (% of manufactured exports) 2005

Bahamas 6.79 307451 na 0.841 0.845 4.9

Bahrain 6.79 718306 21830.12 0.857 0.866 2

Belarus 2.5 9685768 74049.222 0.803 0.804 2.6

Belgium 6.79 10403951 323371.51 0.94 0.946 8.7

Cameroon 6.79 18467692 33073.818 0.524 0.532 2

Croatia 1.36 4491543 54712.152 0.848 0.85 11.5

Cuba 1.42 11423952 na 0.839 0.838 29.1

Czech Republic 1.13 10220911 197236.91 0.877 0.891 12.9

Ecuador 6.79 13927650 80569.658 na 0.772 7.6

Estonia 3.4 1307605 19747.391 0.858 0.86 17.6

Ethiopia 6.79 82544840 41003.835 0.393 0.406 0.2

Finland 1.7 5244749 156426.32 0.947 0.952 25.2

Greece 1.7 10722816 306279.38 0.922 0.926 10.2

Jamaica 6.79 2804332 14941.149 0.732 0.736 0.4

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RCA Scores in athletics and various socio economic properties of relevant economies, 2008

Table 5 : RCA scores in Athletics and various socioeconomic attributes of relevant economies, 2008.

RCA athleticsPopulation (2008

est)

GDP, PPP (current international $ million ) – 2004 GDI Score (2005)

HDI Score 2005

High-technology exports (% of

manufactured exports) 2005

Kenya 6.79 37953840 44007.816 0.521 0.521 3.1

Latvia 2.26 2245423 26682.042 0.853 0.855 5.3

Lithuania 1.36 3565205 43242.812 0.861 0.862 6.1

Morocco 6.79 34343220 101556.98 0.621 0.646 10.1

New Zealand 1.51 4173460 98266.354 0.935 0.943 14.2

Nigeria 3.4 146255312 225293.32 0.456 0.7 1.7

Norway 1.36 4644457 194204.62 0.957 0.968 17.3

Panama 6.79 3309679 27473.052 0.81 0.812 0.9

Poland 1.36 38500696 497409.8 0.867 0.87 3.8

Portugal 3.4 10676910 201676.07 0.895 0.897 8.7

Russia 1.7 140702096 1548969.1 na 0.802 8.1

Slovenia 1.36 2007711 42901.518 0.914 0.917 4.6

South Africa 6.79 48782756 367155.23 0.667 0.674 6.6

Sudan 6.79 40218456 56572.27 0.502 0.526 Na

T&T 6.79 1047366 21596.753 0.808 0.814 1.3

Turkey 1.7 71892808 689301.33 0.763 0.775 1.5

Ukraine 1.26 45994288 248573.23 0.785 0.788 3.7

United States 1.42 303824640 11657300 0.937 0.951 31.8

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RCA score in Athletics 1996 - 2008

Table 6: RCA Scores for Athletics

1996 2000 2004 2008

Bahamas 6.38 6.92 6.73 6.79

Belarus 1.7 2.04 1.35 2.5

Czech Republic 1.74 1.73 1.68 1.13

Ethiopia 6.38 6.92 6.73 6.79

Jamaica 6.38 6.92 6.73 6.79

Kenya 6.38 6.92 6.73 6.79

Morocco 6.38 5.54 6.73 6.79

Nigeria 4.25 4.62 6.73 3.4

Norway 1.82 1.38 1.12 1.36

Portugal 3.19 3.46 4.49 3.4

South Africa 2.55 4.15 2.24 6.79

United States 1.45 1.07 1.65 1.42

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Table 7: Medal Count in Athletics for Bahamas

Athletics TotalAthletics as % of total

1992 1 1 100

1996 1 1 100

2000 2 2 100

2004 2 2 100

2008 2 2 100

Medal count in Athletic for Bahamas

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Medal count in Athletics for Jamaica, (post independence)

Table 8: Medal Count in Athletics for Jamaica

Athletics Totalathletics as %

of total

1968 1 1 100

1972 1 1 100

1976 2 2 100

1980 2 2 100

1984 3 3 100

1988 2 2 100

1992 4 4 100

1996 6 6 100

2000 7 7 100

2004 5 5 100

2008 11 11 100

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RCA scores of Jamaica in athletics

Table 9: RCA Scores for Jamaica in Athletics

1968 4.9

1972 5.5

1976 5.5

1980 5.5

1984 5.5

1988 5.8

1992 6.2

1996 6.4

2000 6.9

2004 6.7

2008 6.8

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CARICOM Integration, Social Cohesiveness and Sports

CARICOM has not been able to entirely deliver on its economic promises in any meaningful way and the region’s trade continues to be mainly dominated by one member state.

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There have been several attempts in the past to unite the Caribbean islands and several institutions have actually established that carry regional significance, these are the Caribbean Common Market (CARICOM), the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) and the University of the West Indies (UWI). Although these institutions have made significant contributions to regional development there are still much more gaps which need to be closed, one such being in sports.

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CARICOM people are passionate about sports and the West Indies cricket team (especially during the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s) has done much to integrate the English speaking Caribbean economies. Regardless of the various forms of island insularity that may prevail, at cricket time West Indians unite. This unity in sports is captured in the Rally cry, the “national anthem’ of the West Indies cricket:

“Rally Round the West Indies”.

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Cameron and Mac Dougall (2000) in a detailed study on the Australian economy concluded that:

“ It appears that sport and physical activity can reduce crime by providing accessible, appropriate activities in a supportive social context (page 1).”

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Greater social cohesiveness within CARICOM is critical to generate a greater degree of regional confidence in the CSME process.

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Sports can help build social cohesian by:

1) Providing plain simple fun,

2) Providing an escape valve from many of the pressures in society,

3) Helping to promote a sense of equality,

4) Providing a substitutable alternative for young people’s time and so reduces scope for the use of illicit drugs and other forms of deviant behavior.

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Social Cohesiveness and the CSME process

1) improved social cohesive can increase the will of the people in CARICOM to see the CSME process succeed.

2) improved social cohesive can help build a greater sense of confidence in things Caribbean (Two sporting events that helped to fuel the confidence of West Indians is that in 1952 Jamaica won more medals than the UK and in the 1950 the West Indies cricket team beat the English cricket team for the first time).

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Social Cohesiveness and the CSME process.

3) Social cohesion can help stimulate the type of patience that is required for regional firms to mature intraregionally before they can cope with the rigours of the extra regional market.

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Conclusion

The CARICOM region has come a long way but still has much distance to cover on the road to economic development. Building a more socially cohesive region can help to strengthen regional bonds beyond what exists and enhance the economic relations that are a necessary part of the integration process.

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Conclusion

Sports has a definite role to play in this whole process. This study suggests that because the region has a comparative advantage in athletics that various avenues be pursued to mobilize greater intra CARICOM integration in this field of sporting endeavor. Focusing on an area with proven RCA strength can minimize the chances failure and maximize the chances of success.

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Conclusion

Some immediate policy recommendations would include: Replication of the Jamaican CHAMPS system into primary schools

throughout the region Replication of the GC Foster and UTECH/MVP setting in at least two

other member states, possibly Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago Functional cooperation by member states in athletics, probably

including more intra CARICOM competitions Engagement of successful regional athletes by CARCIOM to tour the

various CARICOM member states to provide motivational support based on the Liverpool Football Club model

Formation of a specific arm within CARICOM to deal with the development of athletics in the region as a whole.

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Conclusion

Thank you

Questions and feedback

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Conference of the Economy 2008 Regional integration in an era of Globalization