28
www.aeropodium.com CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS © AlixPartners, LLP, 2012 www.alixpartners.com 4 th International Repossession Conference – Dubai (following Miami and London) ‘Bizjets in China, growth and risks of repossession’ December 9th, 2012 Leonard Favre

CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

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Page 1: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

www.aeropodium.com

CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS

© AlixPartners, LLP, 2012 www.alixpartners.com

4th International Repossession Conference – Dubai (following Miami and London)

‘Bizjets in China, growth and risks of repossession’

December 9th, 2012

Leonard Favre

Page 2: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

• Introduction

• Historical Market Development in China

• China Market Characteristics

Agenda

• China Market Characteristics

• Future Trend and Key Success Factors in China Market

• Executive Summary

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Page 3: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Large and medium business jet accounts for 70% of total fleet while Gulfstream and Bombardier are the leading OEMs in China market

35%

33%

13% 12%

26%31%

China Business jet fleet structure by 2011 – by aircraft size and by OEM

3

13% 12%

3% 2% 1% 1%

Gulfstream Bombardier Cessna Hawker Airbus Dassault Boeing Embraer

43%

Large Medium Small

Large and medium business jet accounts for around 70% of total fleet in China

Gulfstream and Bombardier are dominated in China business jet market – account for 68% of total fleet

Sources: CAAC, Company website, AlixPartners Analysis

The segmentation is structured through a combination of range, cabin volume and price according to Business and Commercial Aircraft Magazine� Large – Prices between $46M and $68M, offering over 5,000 NM of range and 1,500 ft3 (42.5 m3) to 3,000 ft3 (85.0 m3)� Medium - Prices between $18M and $42M, offering 3,100 to 5,000 NM of range and 700 ft3 (19.8 m3) to 1,500 ft3 (42.5 m3)� Light - Prices between $7M and $18M, offering 1,700 to 3,100 NM of range and 300 ft3 (8.5 m3) to 700 ft3 (19.8 m3)

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Page 4: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Large business jet has much higher market share in China than other markets and continue gaining market share

2005-2010 2011

China

24%

40%

36% 31%

50%

19%

Business Jet Deliveries

2011-2030

Will the segment structure in China market keep current trend or change in future to be consistent with global structure?

Global

Sources: GAMA, CAAC, AlixPartners Analysis

8%

36%56%

13%

41%

46%

Large Medium Light

22%

32%

46%

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Page 5: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

China has a very low number of business jet fleet relative to it’s size of economy

China historical fleet development

1022

37

59

95

136

185

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

�During 2000-2007, China business jet was developed in a very slow pace, the accumulated deliveries for business jet is less than 50 units

�Since 2008, China market demand jump from a small pool of fleet units base

1.3%

5

9700

18001400

380 380 350 320 136 110

2010 Business jet fleet by region

�However, by 2011, China still only has a very low number of business jet fleet relative to it’s size of economy - As the 2nd

large economy in the world, China accounts for only around 1% of global fleet in 2010 and 1.3% in 2011

China accounts for only 1% of global business

jet fleet in 2010 and 1.3% in 2011

1.3%

Sources: CAAC, GAMA, AlixPartners Analysis

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Page 6: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Because of the barrier of underdevelopment of infrastructures and regulatory limitation for general aviation

� The infrastructure of general aviation industry is under development

− Shortage of airport− Limitation of air traffic control capacity

and capability− Lack of FBO− Limitation of MRO service capacity and

capability

� Low altitude aviation is controlled by the Army of China and general aviation is constricted - altitude below 600 meter is still not open to the publics

� Commercial air traffic has already occupied the limited altitude released by China Army

� Limited air traffic release for business jet -black out period in some airports (Beijing etc)

Regulatory limitation Under development of infrastructures

6

China Accelerates Opening the sky, a recent very good news!

In what is widely seen as a move heralding the long-awaited boom in China’s civil aviation market, government officials now say more than a third of the country’s airspace below 4,000 meters (13,000 feet) is now open to general aviation. Even this will more ease the helicopter business, including for VIP transport, it path the way for Business Jet general aviation.

The opening of China’s airspace is now expected to be completed by 2020 – years ahead of schedule, according to the deputy secretary of the National Air Traffic Management Committee…

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Sources: NBAA report (http://www.nbaa.org/ops/intl/mid/20121126-china-accelerates-opening-of-low-level-airspace.php), AlixPartners Analysis

Page 7: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

812 15

22

3641

49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

However China business jet demand started increasing sharply in the global demand downturn period

China Business Jet Delivery (units)

1.5% 1.9% 4.3% 5.6% 7.1%1.4%1.1%Market share

China business jet delivery unit including HongKong, Taiwan and Macau

China market deliveries experienced sharply increasing during 2008-2011 from a low unit base and already account for 7.1% of global deliveries in 2011

CAGR 31%

7

Global Business Jet Delivery (units)

Sources: GAMA; CAAC, OEM’s financial report, AlixPartners Analysis

China business jet delivery unit including HongKong, Taiwan and Macau

Global business jet deliveries decline significantly during 2008-2011 due to global financial crisis306 324

446513

638

740 765

659

502579

732

863

1019

1136

846

727681

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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Page 8: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

127%698%

1361086

2466

2010 2020 2030

10 year growth rate

And is expected to keep sustainable overgrow to other markets in the next 20 years

China Business Jet Delivery Forecast

46%738%

130

960

1400

2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030

10 year growth rate

Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast

�China market demand is expected to keep sustainable overgrow to other market in the next 20 years

�Around 10% of total

Highlights

China Business Jet Fleet Forecast

14700

21600

30900

2010 2020 2030

40%28%

7828

10000

14000

2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030

10 year growth rate

Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast �Around 10% of total

business jet demand will come from China in 2011-2030

� China business jet fleet will account for around 8% of global fleet from a low base of 1.3% in 2011

43%47%10 year growth rate

Global Business Jet Fleet Forecast

Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast, AlixPartners Analysis, excluded very light jet and large corporate airline categories

8www.alixpartners.com

Page 9: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Mainly driven by robust economic growth, wealth creation, increasing corporate profit, strong government support and penetration growth

Robust economic growth

Wealth creation

� China economy experienced rapid growth in the past 10 years to become the global top 2 high GDP country, future growth will be slow down to adjust the economy structure, but will still keep robust

� A increasing big pool of super wealthy people have set their sights on private jets as the next must-have accessory, like exotic cars, yachts and luxury real estate

� Fast economic growth in the last decade generated many large and profitable state owned and private companies who will be the potential buyers of business jet

9

Corporate profit Increasing

Penetration growth

Strong government support

owned and private companies who will be the potential buyers of business jet

� China government promised to release more traffic rights of altitude between 600 to 1500 step by step to promote the development of general aviation industry

� China government encourage the investment in general aviation infrastructure – airport and operational infrastructure, FBO, FSS, facilities of air traffic control, maintenance and fuel distributions

� Improvements in infrastructure and regulatory limitation and increasing adoption and acceptance of business jet will drive the growth of penetration which is much lower than other countries with similar GDP per capita level

� Sustainable growth of GDP per capital will also support the future penetration growth

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Page 10: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

China economy experienced rapid growth in the past 10 years and is expected to continue robust growth

34.1 39.8

47.2

70.59

99.00

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0 GDP per capita(RMB Trillion)

Growth rate

CAGR 8.4%

CAGR 7.0%

China historical GDP development and forecast

Recession

10

Use annual average RMB/USD exchange rate for GDP per capital convert Sources: China statistic year book; World Bank, AlixPartners Analysis

China GDP experienced rapid growth in the past 10 years, even in the period of global recession in 2008-2010, China GDP is expected to continue robust growing in 2011-2020

11.0 12.0 13.6 16.0 18.3 21.2

25.7 30.1

34.1

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

-

20.0

40.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015E 2020E

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Page 11: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Continuous wealth creation provide a big pool of potential business jet customers

427

182

107

72 72 6249

36

4

428

192176

11695 86

55 56

6

North America

Europe China Russia and CIS

Asia ex.China

Middle East

India Latin America

Africa

2010 2011

Number of wealthy people with > 1 billion USD assets

�A increasing big pool of super

wealthy people have set their

sights on private jets as the next

must-have accessory, like exotic

cars, yachts and luxury real estate

�Around 13% of super wealthy

people (with >100 million RMB net

assets) are interested in buying

business jet

4000

60000

5000

63500

>Billion RMB >100million RMB

2010 2011

17%

15%

13%

7%

3%

35% Others

Jiangsu

Zhejiang

Shanghai

Guangdong

Beijing

2M

2.7M

>1 million USD

17%

17%

14%

7%

3%

35%Others

Jiangsu

Zhejiang

Shanghai

Guangdong

Beijing

Number of wealth people pool and regional distribution in China

CAGR 25%

CAGR 25%

CAGR 6%

CAGR 6%

CAGR 35%

CAGR 35%

Sources: Hurun Research Institute; Forbes magazine; AlixPartners Analysis

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Page 12: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Increasing number of large corporate and their profit improvement will also support business jet demand growth

Global Corporate Profits vs. Business Jet Deliveries (number of aircraft 1995 –2013E)

�Net profit for China listed

companies decreased by 13% in

2008 comparing to 2007 due to

global financial crisis

�However it recovered quickly in

2009 and hit to the peak of YoY

growth rate (39%) in 2010

�Profit growth in 2011 slowed down,

but still robust

�The potential pool of company that

can afford business jet keep

growing in the past several years

467 407

524

728

825

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Average net profit Growth rate

12

Sources: J.P.Morgan Aerospace and Defense; Business Jet Monthly – December 2010; Wind Information; AlixPartners Analysis

Average Net Profit for Companies listed in Mainland China(million RMB)

470

716

969

1117

2008 2009 2010 2011

Number of Listed Company (with net profit >100 million RMB)

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Page 13: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Government support will help progressively removal the barrier of infrastructure shortage and regulatory limitation

�Encourage general aviation enterprises and private sector to take part in:

• Construction of general aviation airports and operational infrastructure facilities

• Building up and perfecting the facilities of air traffic control, maintenance and fuel distribution

• Forming a group of flight service stations

Highlights

� Scheduled civil transport airport

188 ≥ 230

� General Aviation Fleet Hour

140K 300K

13

• Forming a group of flight service stations (FSS)

• Introducing fixed base operations (FBO)

• Establishing new fuel distribution centers in Harbin, Hohhot, Urumuchi and Zhuhai

�Nurture 3 to 5 leading companies for general aviation

�Expand maritime patrol and country wide search and rescue

140K 300K

� General Aviation Aircraft

1,010 ≥ 2,000

� Pilots

24,000 40,000

Sources: Chinese government 5 year plan for general aviation industry

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Page 14: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Improvements in infrastructures and regulatory limitation and increasing adoption and acceptance will drive the growth of penetration

Market forecast

2011 Business Jet Penetration in the G20 and others

Business Jets/ Capita (M)

CER, 423UK, 419

� Forecasters correlate business jets numbers and per capita levels

� Business jet penetration in China is much lower than other G20 countries with similar level of GDP per capital due to the

14

Source: GAMA

GDP (K$)/ Capita

CER, 423UK, 419

AUS, 139

INDO, 19CHINA, 62

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of GDP per capital due to the barrier of shortage of infrastructure and regulatory limitation

� Under the assumption that business jets as a function of capita and GDP is constant throughout the world, China is expected to experience a step change in business jets ownership if can removal the barrier

Page 15: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Sustainable growth of GDP per capital will also support the future penetration growth

� China GDP per capita keep rapid growth in 2001-2011 and reach to USD4000+ level in 2009 that is the demand start point for general aviation

� GDP per capital will keep sustainable growth in this decade that will drive the sustainable demand increase of business jet

� Big gap on GDP per capital among different provinces will

1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3

2.8

3.7 4.0

4.8

6.0

7.2

10.1

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

GDP per capita(KUSD)

Growth rate

2010-2015CAGR 8.4%

2015-2020 CAGR 7.0%

15

13.4 12.8 12.4

9.4 9.1 8.8 7.8 7.8

7.3 7.3

5.9 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9

3.1 3.0 2.9 2.5

cause the geographic unbalance of business jet demand

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020

2011 GDP per capita by province (KUSD)

Use annual average RMB/USD exchange rate for GDP per capital convert Sources: China statistic year book; AlixPartners Analysis

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Page 16: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Challenges Ahead

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Page 17: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

However realization of growth will really depends on how fast China can remove the barriers to growth

Challenges

in China

Challenges

in China

Air traffic restriction

Slow Certification, Registration and approval

process

� Limited air traffic release for business jet - black out period in some airports (Beijing etc) since

� commercial air traffic has already occupied the limited altitude released by China Army

� Shortage of airport

� Shortage of facilities of air traffic control, maintenance

� Preapproval is required to buy business jet

� Certification and registration process is complicated

� The whole process will take more than 3 months

� High operation cost :USD

Source: AlixPartners Analysis

in China

Market

in China

MarketUnder

development of infrastructure

Human Resource Shortage

High Operation /maintenance

cost

traffic control, maintenance and fuel distribution

� Lack of FBO (fixed based operator)

� Lack of in-country MRO and training capabilities and capacities

� Limited capacity of air traffic control management

� Shortage of pilots

� Shortage of well trained and qualified MRO engineers and other service personnel

� High operation cost :USD 80-90K per flight

� Lack of aircraft size differentiation in landing, handling and navigation fees

� High maintenance fee: USD per year

− Small size: 800-1100K

− Medium/large size: 1.6-2.4 million

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Page 18: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Under development of infrastuctures – airport, air traffic control capacity, FBO, MRO service capacity and capability

USA

� Airport – 14,951� Paved – 5,000� Scheduled service

airport – 376

USA

� Airport – 14,951� Paved – 5,000� Scheduled service

airport – 376

China

� Airport – 398� Military based and

airfield – 190�Scheduled service

airport – 188

China

� Airport – 398� Military based and

airfield – 190�Scheduled service

airport – 188

Shortage of AirportShortage of Airport

� Current air traffic control system is difficult to meet diversified air traffic requirements –especially rapid growth of general aviation, cargo and branch line air traffics

� Weak air traffic management in medium to small airports in tier 2/3 cities

� IT system is not well integrated � Lack of qualified air traffic control personnel

� Current air traffic control system is difficult to meet diversified air traffic requirements –especially rapid growth of general aviation, cargo and branch line air traffics

� Weak air traffic management in medium to small airports in tier 2/3 cities

� IT system is not well integrated � Lack of qualified air traffic control personnel

Limitations of air traffic control capacityLimitations of air traffic control capacity

18

� Only 3 FBO (Fixed Based Operation) in China –Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen

‒ Shanghai Hawker Pacific FBO in Shanghai Hongqiao Airport

‒ Beijing Capital Jet FBO in Beijing airport‒ Shenzhen Jinlu FBO in Shenzhen airport

� Only 3 FBO (Fixed Based Operation) in China –Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen

‒ Shanghai Hawker Pacific FBO in Shanghai Hongqiao Airport

‒ Beijing Capital Jet FBO in Beijing airport‒ Shenzhen Jinlu FBO in Shenzhen airport

Lack of FBOLack of FBO

� In-country maintenance, overhaul and training capabilities and capacities is unlikely to keep pace with fleet growth

� Lack of MRO suppliers for business jet in mainland China

� In-country maintenance, overhaul and training capabilities and capacities is unlikely to keep pace with fleet growth

� Lack of MRO suppliers for business jet in mainland China

Lack of MROLack of MRO

Sources: CAAC, AlixPartners Analysis

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Page 19: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Shortage of human resources - especially pilots and MRO engineers

Shortage of Pilots in China Market

560

24

73

24

30

19

Number of Pilot by 2010 (‘000) Pilot Gap forecast for China Market by 2030 (‘000) � China market required total 73,000 pilot by 2030 for both commercial and business jet

� China has 24,000 pilots by 2010

� China can only train 1500 new pilots per year based on current capacity due to lack of pilot training school, coach and high training cost (double to triple on US

19

Shortage of MRO Engineers in China Market

US China Total pilot required

Current pilot base

New pilot to be provided

Gap

cost (double to triple on US cost)

300

60

240

Total MRO engineer required

Current MRO engineer base

Gap

MRO engineer Gap forecast

for China Market by 2030

(‘000)

� China market required 300,000 qualified MRO engineers by 2015 based on fleet growth forecast

� But China only has 60,000 MRO engineer (including MRO management personnel) by 2010

� Most of MRO engineers are lack of knowledge/experience in MRO for business jet models

Sources: CAAC, Boeing forecast, AlixPartners Analysis

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Page 20: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

High operation cost – account for 5-8% on top of total business jet purchase price per year

Business jet annual operation cost in China – Challenge 850 example

1%

3%

3% 7%

Insurance fee Fixed operation cost Variable operation cost

Total operation cost

� Variable cost calculation is based on 300 fleet hour per year

� Operation cost percentage is based on total purchasing cost including import tax, VAT, logistic cost and agency cost

� Fix operation cost includes airport parking fee, safety checking fee, training fee, maintenance fee and etc

� Variable operation cost includes all flight operation fee – salary of pilot,

20

Sources: CAAC, AlixPartners research and analysis

Foreign registry Chinese registry

US$ US$

Ground Handling Fees 6,750.00 4,500.00

Airline countervailing fee 4,400.00 0.00

Navigation Fee 1,400.11 175.01

Total Fees 12550.11 4,675.01

flight operation fee – salary of pilot, cleaning and other related fee, fuel cost, flight insurance fee and etc

Example: Hong Kong – Shanghai return

� Flight operation fee in China differs between foreign registry jet and Chinese registry jet

� Flight operation fee for foreign registry jet is much higher than that for Chinese registry jet

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Page 21: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

As Chinese customer prefer well recognized brands and large business jet regardless of trip length

Product Feature Service Requirement Price Sensitivity

Chinese Customer demand characteristics

�Well recognized brands

�Super medium to large cabin aircraft regardless of trip length

�New or nearly new aircraft

�Well recognized brands

�Super medium to large cabin aircraft regardless of trip length

�New or nearly new aircraft

�Full service package since most of them are the first time buyers, including

− Business jet model selection

− Consulting− Price negotiation− Financing

�Full service package since most of them are the first time buyers, including

− Business jet model selection

− Consulting− Price negotiation− Financing

�Relatively low price sensitivity

�Relatively low price sensitivity

� Airlines

� Real Estate

� Casinos and gaming

� Chemicals

� Oil and Gas

� Coal mining

� Electronics

Customer Structure

21

aircraft

�Luxury decoration with specific requirements

�Full seats loading -business and political leaders travel with entourages

�Couch for head person to lie down on

aircraft

�Luxury decoration with specific requirements

�Full seats loading -business and political leaders travel with entourages

�Couch for head person to lie down on

− Financing− Import and logistic− License application− Operation

management − Used aircraft

disposition in future

− Financing− Import and logistic− License application− Operation

management − Used aircraft

disposition in future

� Flight trainingWhite good manufactures

� IT

� Energy

� Bank

� Advertising

� Entertainment

Source: AlixPartners Analysis

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Page 22: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Key success factors in China market

� Chinese customers are very keen on well recognized brand

� Increasing brand awareness and establish great brand reputation in China market

Recognized brand

� Deep understanding on customer ‘s demand characteristics by

� Offering full service package are important since Chinese customers are lack of experience

� Providing super quality service is also key to build up long term relationship with Chinese customers

Excellent service

� Critical to long term success since it can not only improve the reaction speed to market needs but also

Local manufac-

22

demand characteristics by segmentation in China market

� Introduce right products to the market with high flexible configuration

Right products

� Developing right go to market model fit for China market is a must

� It can be tailored with successful experience from other markets, not just copy - paste

Right go to market model

speed to market needs but also provide significant total cost advantage to customers

� Obtain other benefits from Chinese government since it is encouraged

manufac-turing

footprint and engineering capability

� Develop right partnership strategy –set up JV with Chinese companies can accelerate the pace of market entry and mitigate the risks

� Build up partnership with right partner – SOE can help acquire more resources from Chinese government

Right partnership

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Page 23: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Executive Summary - Growth and risks of repossession in China

� China account for a very low number of business jet fleet relative to it’s size of economy

� And business jet penetration is also much lower than other G20 countries with similar level of GDP per capital

� Because of the barrier of underdevelopment of infrastructures and regulatory limitation for general aviation in the past

China business jet industry has not grown substantially in the past

But it is expected to boom and keep sustainable growth in the next 20 years

� However China business jet demand started increasing sharply in the global demand downturn period (2008-2011)

� And is expected to keep sustainable overgrow to other markets in the next 20 years

� Mainly driven by robust economic growth, wealth creation, increasing corporate profit, strong government support and penetration growth

Attractive opportunities in all aspects of business aviation but also risks associated

Focus on six key success factors in China market

government support and penetration growth

� Market growth provide attractive opportunities in all aspects of the whole industry chain

� However realization of growth will really depends on how fast China can remove the barrier to growth – air traffic restriction, underdevelopment of infrastructures, human resource shortage, high operation cost and slow certification, registration and approval process

� Increase brand awareness and build up great brand reputation

� Introduce right products fit customer’s demand characteristics to the market

� Develop right go to market model-can be tailored with successful experience, not copy-paste

� Provide full service package and super service to build up long term customer relationship

� Establish local manufacturing footprint and build up local engineering capability

� Develop right partnership strategy – JV with Chinese companies might be the right approach

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Page 24: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Notes

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Page 25: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Appendix 1: Major business jet dealers in China market

Dealer

Name

Ownership

structure

OEM product Major customer

SOE/Private /WOE/JV

Bom-bardier

Gulf-stream

Cess-na

Embraer-

Dass-aulat

Hawker

Govern-ment

SOE PrivateCom.

ForeignCom.

Indi-vidual

Avion Pacific Limited

WOE √ √ √ √

Sino Private Aviation

WOE √ √ √ √ √

CBAJET Private √ √ √ √ √ √

CPAC Private √ √

PTE WOE √ √ √ √PTE WOE √ √ √ √

Lily Jet Private √

Chinaga Private √ √

Jinggong Private

Asia Pacific WOE √ √

ACASS WOE

WestjetAircraft

WOE √

Zhuhai XiruiGA

JV √ √

AVIATION SUPPLIES

WOE √ √ √

Sources: Company website, AlixPartners Research and Analysis

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Page 26: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Appendix 2: Major operation company in China market

Key operator Ownership

structure

Service provided or business

model

Fleet

2011

Major customer

SOE/Private /WOE/JV

Friction Charter Operationmandate

Govern-ment

SOE PrivateCompany

ForeignCompany

Individual

Deer Jet (Beijing Capital Airlines)

HNA Group:70% Beijing Tourism Group:30%

√√

44√

√√ √

BAA Private √ √ 32

Beijing Airlines (Air China)

SOE √ √ 10 √

Lily Jet Private √ √ √ 10 √ √ √ √

Shanxi Sanjin SOE 8 √ √

Mingsheng Private √ √ 7 √ √ √ √

Donghai Jet SOE √ √ 7 √ √ √ √

China Eastern Executive

SOE √ √ 5 √ √ √

YashengMedevac

√ 3 √

Sichuan Xingyao

Private √ √ 2

Big White Bear Private √ √ 2

Zhongfei SOE √ √ 2 √ √

Sources: Company website, AlixPartners Research and Analysis

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Page 27: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

Appendix 3: Major business jet MRO suppliers in China market

MRO

supplier

Ownership

structure

MRO service OEMs/Models MRO service type

SOE/Private / WOE/JV

Bom-bardier

Gulf-stream

Cess-na

Embraer-

Dass-aulat

Haw-ker Modification

Air frame

Com-ponent

Line Engine

TAMECO(Xiangyu)

JV √

CIRRUS GA JV

ZhongFei JV √

Shanghai Hawker Pacific

JVCE-680

Falcon 7X,

900LX, 2000LX

√ √ √

Pacific2000LX

Tianjin Execujet

JV

Sichuan HaiteHigh

Public listed √

Tianjin Air SOE √

Metrojet WOE √ √

STAECO JV

CRJCL604/605

CL850XRS

G450 √ √

HawkerHaikou

RA3901A800XP

Sources: Company website, AlixPartners Research and Analysis

www.alixpartners.com 27

Page 28: CONFERENCES & AVIATION WORKSHOPS - Aeropodium · 2018-06-19 · 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 10 year growth rate Global Business Jet Delivery Forecast China market demand is expected

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