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Confirmed Recovered 13
Confirmed Active Cases 76
2 COVID-19 Patients
Currently Hospitalized
1 COVID-19 Patients
Currently in ICU
0 Deaths
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT BLOCK GRANT
& EMERGENCY SOLUTIONS
GRANT PROGRAM
TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORTApril 17, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
Speakers: Dr. Philippe Tissot & Dr. Chris Bird
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105 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES IN COASTAL BEND
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13 Recoveries In Nueces
105 CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES IN COASTAL BEND
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SAN ANTIONIO CUMULATIVE CASES
COASTAL BENDCUMULATIVE CASES
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES COASTAL BEND
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Cases Slowing Down
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES COASTAL BEND & SAN ANTONIO
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1. “BACK TO NORMAL” APRIL 30a) End all Interventionsb) End Stay-at-Home, Open Schools, Allow Gatheringsc) Most Favorable Estimate of Transmission Ratio (Ro)d) Account for Moderate Seasonality in Transmission
2. CONTINUE INTERVENTIONS THROUGH AUG 31• Extend ‘Stay-at-Home’, School Closures, Etc…
SCENARIOS MODELED
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“BACK TO NORMAL”COVID-19 SPREADS
WITHOUT INTERVENTIONS
Ro 2.9PEOPLE INFECTED PER CARRIER
Ro = 2.2 (1.7-2.9)Best Estimate of Transmission Ratio (95% Credible Interval)Model based on Texas COVID-19 Fatalities
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CONTINUE INTERVENTIONSCOVID-19 BURNS OUT
WITH INTERVENTIONS
Rt 0.7PEOPLE INFECTED PER CARRIER
Rt = 0.5 (0.3-0.7)Best Estimate of Transmission Ratio (95% Credible Interval)Model based on Texas COVID-19 Fatalities
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4000 PROJECTED FATALITIES
40 PROJECTED FATALITIESCONTINUE INTERVENTIONS
“BACK TO NORMAL”
100K INFECTIONS
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346 INFECTIONS“BACK TO NORMAL” CONTINUE
INTERVENTIONS
5400 HOSPITALIZATIONS
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34 HOSPITALIZATIONSCapacity
“BACK TO NORMAL”
CONTINUE
INTERVENTIONS
4900 HOSPITALIZATIONS
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34 HOSPITALIZATIONSCapacity
“BACK TO NORMAL”+ SOCIAL DISTANCING
+ ISOLATE INFECTIOUS
CONTINUE
INTERVENTIONS
3700 HOSPITALIZATIONS
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34 HOSPITALIZATIONSCapacity
“BACK TO NORMAL”+ SOCIAL DISTANCING
+ ISOLATE INFECTIOUS
+ SEASONALITY CONTINUE
INTERVENTIONS
1600 HOSPITALIZATIONS
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Capacity
“BACK TO NORMAL”+ LOW EST. RO
34 HOSPITALIZATIONS
CONTINUE INTERVENTIONS
(HIGH EST RO)
331 HOSPITALIZATIONS
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Capacity
“BACK TO NORMAL”+ LOW EST. RO
+ SOCIAL DIST
+ ISOLATE INFECTIOUS
34 HOSPITALIZATIONS
CONTINUE INTERVENTIONS
(HIGH EST. RO )
39 HOSPITALIZATIONS
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Capacity
“BACK TO NORMAL”+ LOW EST. RO
+ SOCIAL DIST
+ ISOLATE INFECTIOUS
+ SEASONALITY
34 HOSPITALIZATIONS
CONTINUE INTERVENTIONS
(HIGH EST. RO )
SUMMARY•New cases in Coastal Bend are declining
• Under 2 per day on average
•Most likely that COVID-19 is burning out in TX• Transmission ratio below 1
•“Back to Normal” on April 30 can result in spread of COVID-19, overflow of hospitals
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GETTING “BACK TO NORMAL” &CONTROLLING SPREAD OF COVID-19
•Ending Stay-at-Home, opening schools may require other interventions and help from nature to mitigate infection rate
• Mass testing to identify infection, enable isolation of infectious
• New treatments to mitigate effects of COVID-19• Seasonality could reduce transmission in summer• ‘Masks in public’ decreases transmission ratio (Rt)
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YOU CAN HELP PUSH THE TRANSMISSION RATIO BELOW 1 TO EXTINGUISH COVID-19
• Follow Local, State and Federal Guidelines
• Wash your hands often (20 sec)• Avoid close contact (6 feet)• Cover your mouth and nose
with a cloth face cover when around others
• Cover coughs and sneezes• Clean and disinfect
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice President Mahdy
• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,
Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts, Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner
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