Congress and 2008

Why the Democrats Win

• The Incumbency advantage

• The Fundraising Advantage

• The Retirement Advantage

• The Partisan Advantage

The Democratic Fundraising Advantage

Interest Group spending

• What they Can Do

• Where they Spent

501’s and 527’s

• What they are

• Where they Spent

THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE ADVANTAGE

Retirements and Strategic challengers

Candidate Quality

• We Vote For members who we trust

• Political Amateurs?

• What is a quality Challenger?

Strategic Challengers

• Run when they are advantaged by the Opportunities

• What is Involved

The Incumbent Calculus

LOSE< RETIRE< WIN

Strategic Politicians and 2008

• The Democrats were willing to Run

• Republicans stayed home, or Retired

Attracting Good Challengers

• The GOP cannot find good challengers

• The Democrats did– In the House

– In the Senate

Voluntary Retirements

• When candidates leave office, rather than run for re-election.

• Why people Retire?

Retirements in the House

• 3 Special Elections in 2007 set the stage

• 23 Retirements and 29 open House seats for the GOP to Defend

• 7 open seats for the Democrats

Retirements in the Senate

• ZERO Democrats retired in 2008

• 5 Republicans– 2 Safe States

– Colorado, New Mexico, and Virgina

Why Retire or Stay

• Why So many GOP Retirements

• Why So Many Democrats did not

The Democratic Partisan Advantage

(National Factors as Well)

Wave Elections

• They usually correct themselves

• 2006 and 2008 featured Democratic Tides

– Unpopular Bush Presidency– Macro Factors

Contextual Factors

• A Sour Mood in the electorate

• 90% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track

• Consumer Confidence was at an all time low

A Poor Economy

The Bush Legacy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91l_h7UpQcs

The Republican Brand

• A Tarnished Image

• Responsibility without Power

• Scandal

• Forced to go on local factors in a national election

A Shift in Partisan Loyalty

• Democrats grew with young voters

• Independents leaned Democratic

• Other Groups Went Democratic

• Key States went Democratic

The House Results

The House Results

• Fewer Safe GOP Seats

• GOP Gerrymandering Didn’t Work

• Congress is Unpopular

The Results

• 435 Up for Grabs

• Democrats Gain 23 House Seats

• The GOP is driven From New England

The House Results

Democrats Republicans Incumbents Reelected 98% 90% Challenger victories 14 5 Open Seats successfully defended 7 (of 7) 17 (of 29) Open Seats captured from Opposition 12 0 Total Seats 257 178 Democratic Net Gain 21

Where the Democrats Won

• Defeating Vulnerable Republicans

• Winning in Districts where Bush Did Poorly

• Winning the Open Seats

The Senate

The Dynamics

• The More Incumbents you have, the more you have to Defend

– 22 Republican Seats

– 12 Democratic Seats

– 5 open GOP Seats

• A Weak Republican Class

The Results

Democrats Republicans Incumbents Reelected 100% 67% Challenger victories 5 0 Open Seats successfully defended 0 2 Open Seats captured from Opposition 3 0 Total Seats 59 41 Democratic Net Gain 8

Why The Democrats Won

• Open Seats

• National Tides

• Red Senators in Blue States

• Not as big as it could have been

The Obama Effect

• In Red States– Net loss of 1 House Seat– 1 senate Seat

• In the Flipped states– 12 House Seats – 4 Senate Seats

• In the Blue States– 10 House Seats– 3 Senate Seats