Congressional Congressional Politics in the Politics in the

NorthwestNorthwestParallels between 1994, Parallels between 1994,

20062006

in Washington’s 5in Washington’s 5thth DistrictDistrict

Questions for discussionQuestions for discussion

Why did the Northwest enjoy Why did the Northwest enjoy unprecedented influence in Congress unprecedented influence in Congress between 1970 and 1995?between 1970 and 1995?

What were themes and messages in What were themes and messages in House races in 1994, 2006?House races in 1994, 2006?

How have demographic & economic How have demographic & economic changes affected Northwest politics?changes affected Northwest politics?

How will national politics affect this How will national politics affect this race?race?

Where is the 5Where is the 5thth District? District?

Who is this man?Who is this man?

Who is this man?Who is this man?

Thomas S. FoleyThomas S. Foley Represented 5Represented 5thth

District, 1965-1995District, 1965-1995 Speaker of the U.S. Speaker of the U.S.

House, 1989-1995House, 1989-1995 U.S. ambassador to U.S. ambassador to

Japan, 1997-2001Japan, 1997-2001

Why was Foley so Why was Foley so successful?successful?

Family: Deep roots Family: Deep roots in eastern in eastern WashingtonWashington

Mentors: Sens. Mentors: Sens. Henry Jackson and Henry Jackson and Warren MagnusonWarren Magnuson

““In politics, it’s In politics, it’s better to be lucky better to be lucky than to be good… than to be good… Tom Foley was Tom Foley was both.”both.”

Why was Foley so Why was Foley so successful?successful?

Good committee assignments: Good committee assignments: Agriculture, InteriorAgriculture, Interior

Moderate Democrat, attracted Moderate Democrat, attracted Republican support Republican support

In the right place at the right In the right place at the right time to advance in leadershiptime to advance in leadership Survived ‘Reagan Revolution’ of Survived ‘Reagan Revolution’ of

1980 (other Democrats lost)1980 (other Democrats lost) Succeeded Jim Wright as Succeeded Jim Wright as

speaker, 1989speaker, 1989

Foley’s QualitiesFoley’s Qualities Memory, connectionsMemory, connections Story teller, sense of Story teller, sense of

humorhumor Attention to process, Attention to process,

rather than issuesrather than issues Defender of Congress Defender of Congress

as an institutionas an institution

Foley’s opponentsFoley’s opponents

1966-1992: series of ‘dingbats’1966-1992: series of ‘dingbats’ Single-issue candidatesSingle-issue candidates ExtremistsExtremists Underfunded, lacked support of state partyUnderfunded, lacked support of state party

Why no serious opposition?Why no serious opposition? Foley co-opted Spokane business Foley co-opted Spokane business

establishmentestablishment Republicans recognized value of Foley’s Republicans recognized value of Foley’s

seniorityseniority He paid attention to his constituencyHe paid attention to his constituency

1994: Turning point1994: Turning point

Demographic changes in 5Demographic changes in 5thth District District Migration, especially from CaliforniaMigration, especially from California Aging of traditional Foley votersAging of traditional Foley voters

EconomicsEconomics Decline of unionsDecline of unions Shift away from agricultural baseShift away from agricultural base Resource management conflicts Resource management conflicts

(timber, mining) (timber, mining)

Coincidence of issues Coincidence of issues (1992-94)(1992-94)

Clinton’s unpopularityClinton’s unpopularity Term limits (and Term limits (and

Foley’s longevity in Foley’s longevity in Washington)Washington)

House Bank, Post House Bank, Post Office scandalsOffice scandals

Anti-incumbent Anti-incumbent sentimentsentiment

A credible GOP opponentA credible GOP opponent

George NethercuttGeorge NethercuttWSU graduateWSU graduateFormer U.S. Senate Former U.S. Senate aideaide

Attorney, civic Attorney, civic volunteervolunteer

Spokane County Spokane County GOP chairmanGOP chairman

A credible GOP opponentA credible GOP opponent

George NethercuttGeorge Nethercutt Theme: ‘the only Theme: ‘the only

Republican who can beat Republican who can beat Tom Foley’Tom Foley’

Defeated two former Foley Defeated two former Foley opponents in September opponents in September primaryprimary

The 1994 CampaignThe 1994 Campaign The Gingrich factorThe Gingrich factor

‘‘Contract with Contract with America’America’

Alliance with Rush Alliance with Rush Limbaugh, talk Limbaugh, talk radioradio

Attempt to Attempt to nationalizenationalize House House electionselections

Referendum on Referendum on Clinton’s recordClinton’s record

Campaign strategyCampaign strategy

Which issues do you think George Which issues do you think George Nethercutt emphasized in his Nethercutt emphasized in his challenge?challenge? How did he portray himself to voters?How did he portray himself to voters?

Which issues did Foley emphasize Which issues did Foley emphasize in his bid for re-election?in his bid for re-election? How did he defend his record?How did he defend his record?

Nethercutt’s messageNethercutt’s message

Nethercutt’s messageNethercutt’s message

TV commercialsTV commercials30 years30 yearsMinor ProblemMinor ProblemBonanzaBonanza

Foley’s messageFoley’s message

TV commercialsTV commercialsCallCallTalkTalkCutsCuts

The ResultsThe Results

District 5District 5 Nethercutt, 110,057 Nethercutt, 110,057

(50.9%)(50.9%) Foley, 106,075 (49.1%)Foley, 106,075 (49.1%)

NationallyNationally Republicans take control Republicans take control

of House for first time of House for first time since 1954since 1954

Newt Gingrich becomes Newt Gingrich becomes speaker of the Housespeaker of the House

Could Foley have Could Foley have survived?survived?

Yes, but… Yes, but… ……with a different strategywith a different strategy

Starting earlier (after 1992 election)Starting earlier (after 1992 election) Mending fences in district, especially with Mending fences in district, especially with

liberalsliberals Pushing to reform House rules, policiesPushing to reform House rules, policies

……and different tacticsand different tactics More aggressive ads, emphasizing value of More aggressive ads, emphasizing value of

seniorityseniority Rapid-response squad to Republican attacksRapid-response squad to Republican attacks

The rest of the storyThe rest of the story

Nethercutt reneges on Nethercutt reneges on pledge to retire after 3 pledge to retire after 3 terms, serves five termsterms, serves five terms

Challenges Patty Murray Challenges Patty Murray for U.S. Senate in 2004for U.S. Senate in 2004

Murray takes 55% of Murray takes 55% of votevote

Cathy McMorris elected Cathy McMorris elected to replace Nethercuttto replace Nethercutt

2006: Parallels to 1994?2006: Parallels to 1994?

Unnpopular presidentUnnpopular president Scandals in CongressScandals in Congress Frustration with Frustration with

‘gridlock’‘gridlock’ Anti-incumbent Anti-incumbent

sentimentsentiment Attempt to make Attempt to make

congressional elections congressional elections national referendumnational referendum

Republican incumbentRepublican incumbent

Cathy McMorrisCathy McMorris Born 1969Born 1969 Family orchard, fruit Family orchard, fruit

stand in Stevens stand in Stevens CountyCounty

10 years in Washington 10 years in Washington LegislatureLegislature

Elected to Congress, Elected to Congress, 2004, with 59% of vote2004, with 59% of vote

Democratic challengerDemocratic challenger

Peter GoldmarkPeter Goldmark Bron 1945Bron 1945 Rancher from Rancher from

OkanoganOkanogan Ph.D. scientistPh.D. scientist Former Washington Former Washington

state secretary of state secretary of agriculture, WSU agriculture, WSU regentregent

Campaign strategiesCampaign strategies

Which issues do you think Peter Which issues do you think Peter Goldmark is raising in his challenge?Goldmark is raising in his challenge? What aspects of his background does What aspects of his background does

he emphasize?he emphasize? Which issues is Cathy McMorris Which issues is Cathy McMorris

emphasizing in her bid for re-emphasizing in her bid for re-election?election? How does she defend her record?How does she defend her record?

Who do you think will win?Who do you think will win?

Campaign commercialsCampaign commercials

http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/ http://www.cathyforcongress.com/cahttp://www.cathyforcongress.com/ca

thyforcongress/thyforcongress/

Latest pollingLatest polling

ResultsResults Cathy McMorris (R): 45 percentCathy McMorris (R): 45 percent Peter Goldmark (D): 38 percentPeter Goldmark (D): 38 percent

MethodologyMethodology 350 interviews with random sample of likely 350 interviews with random sample of likely

voters. voters. Interviews conducted Sept, 13-17, 2006. Interviews conducted Sept, 13-17, 2006. Sampling error is +/- 5.2 percent. Sampling error is +/- 5.2 percent. Pollster: Lake Research (hired by Goldmark)Pollster: Lake Research (hired by Goldmark)

What happens next?What happens next?

Democrats spending money on Goldmark Democrats spending money on Goldmark ads:ads: ““McMorris’s Democratic opponent is Peter McMorris’s Democratic opponent is Peter

Goldmark, a rancher whose surprising strength Goldmark, a rancher whose surprising strength has attracted the support of the Democratic has attracted the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which last Congressional Campaign Committee, which last week began spending $323,000 on television week began spending $323,000 on television ads opposing McMorris.” (ads opposing McMorris.” (The Washington Post, The Washington Post, 10/24) 10/24)

http://www.dccc.org/races/emerging_races/http://www.dccc.org/races/emerging_races/ Will RCCC come to McMorris’ defense?Will RCCC come to McMorris’ defense?