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Conservation Resources in the (Draft) 5 th Northwest Power Plan. Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources Northwest Power and Conservation Council. What You’re About To Hear. What We’ve Done How much is left to do What does it cost Where is it What’s it worth - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Conservation ResourcesConservation Resourcesin the in the
(Draft) 5(Draft) 5thth Northwest Power Plan Northwest Power Plan
Tom EckmanTom Eckman
Manager, Conservation ResourcesManager, Conservation Resources
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilNorthwest Power and Conservation Council
slide 2
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What You’re About To HearWhat You’re About To Hear
What We’ve DoneWhat We’ve Done
How much is left to doHow much is left to do
What does it costWhat does it cost
Where is itWhere is it
What’s it worth What’s it worth
What it means to you - Utility “Targets”What it means to you - Utility “Targets”
slide 3
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
20 Years of Progress – Bonneville 20 Years of Progress – Bonneville and Utility Accomplishmentsand Utility Accomplishments
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Cu
mu
lati
ve A
cq
uis
itio
ns (
aM
W)
Since 1980 the Region’s Since 1980 the Region’s Utilities and Bonneville Utilities and Bonneville Acquired Over 1750 aMW of Acquired Over 1750 aMW of SavingsSavings
slide 4
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
20 Years of Progress – State Energy 20 Years of Progress – State Energy Code AccomplishmentsCode Accomplishments
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Since 1980 State and Local Since 1980 State and Local Energy Codes Have Produced Energy Codes Have Produced Over 440 aMW of Savings.Over 440 aMW of Savings.
slide 5
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
20 Years of Progress – Federal 20 Years of Progress – Federal Energy Efficiency Standards Energy Efficiency Standards
AccomplishmentsAccomplishments
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
Since 1980 Federal Appliance Since 1980 Federal Appliance and Manufactured Housing and Manufactured Housing Energy Efficiency Standards Energy Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over 420 aMW Have Produced Over 420 aMW of Savings.of Savings.
slide 6
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PNW Savings from Codes and PNW Savings from Codes and Efficiency Standards 1980-2002Efficiency Standards 1980-2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dishwashers Refrigerator Freezer Room AC DHW HUD Code ResidentialCode
CommercialCode
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
slide 7
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
20 Years of Progress – 20 Years of Progress – Total PNW Conservation SavingsTotal PNW Conservation Savings
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
BPA and Utility Programs State Codes & Federal Standards
Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over Standards Have Produced Over 2600 aMW of Savings.2600 aMW of Savings.
slide 8
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
So What’s 2600 aMW?So What’s 2600 aMW?
It’s enough electricity to serve the It’s enough electricity to serve the entireentire state of Idahostate of Idaho
In the year 2002 alone, it saved the region’s In the year 2002 alone, it saved the region’s consumers consumers $1.6 Billion$1.6 Billion in retail power in retail power purchasespurchases
slide 9
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Conservation Now Supplies Over 10% of Conservation Now Supplies Over 10% of the Region’s Electricity Service Needsthe Region’s Electricity Service Needs
20002000 20012001
PNW Electricity Sales PNW Electricity Sales 20,60020,600 18,450 18,450
PNW ConservationPNW Conservation
2,3152,315
2,600 2,600
Total PNW Electricity ServicesTotal PNW Electricity Services 22,915 22,915 21,050 21,050
Share of Electricity Services Met Share of Electricity Services Met by Conservationby Conservation 10%10% 12%12%
slide 10
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Conservation Was The Northwest’s Conservation Was The Northwest’s ThirdThird Largest Source of Electricity Largest Source of Electricity
Supply in 2000Supply in 2000
Coal13.2%
Conservation10.2%
Gas7.7%
Nuclear3.8%
Other1.3% Petroleum
0.4%
Hydro63.4%
slide 11
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Conservation Is Now The Conservation Is Now The SecondSecond Largest Single Federal Power Firm Largest Single Federal Power Firm
Energy ResourceEnergy Resource
Hydro75%
Nuclear11%
Conservation14%
The Amount of Energy Savings in Public Utility Service Territories from Conservation Programs, Codes and Standards Is Equivalent to Three TimesThree Times the Annual Firm Energy Output of Bonneville Dam
slide 12
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Conservation Met Approximately 1/4 Conservation Met Approximately 1/4 of the Regional Load Growth of the Regional Load Growth
Between 1980 - 2002Between 1980 - 2002
23%
77%
Conservation Generation
slide 13
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Conservation Significantly Reduced Conservation Significantly Reduced
Projected PNW Electricity SalesProjected PNW Electricity Sales
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Ave
rage M
egaw
att
s
Medium High ForecastMedium LowMedium High Minus ConservationActual
slide 14
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Annual Conservation Savings Compared Annual Conservation Savings Compared to Difference Between 1983 Medium-High to Difference Between 1983 Medium-High
Forecast and Actual SalesForecast and Actual Sales
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
1990 1995 2000
1983 Medium High minus Actual Conservation Savings
slide 15
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Conservation Acquisitions Have Regional Conservation Acquisitions Have Also Helped Balance Loads & Resources Also Helped Balance Loads & Resources ((Creating Creating Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the Energy Efficiency Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the Energy Efficiency
Service Industry)Service Industry)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002Co
nserv
ati
on
Acq
uis
itio
ns (
aM
W)
Response to West Coast
Energy Crisis
Response to NW
Recession
Response to “Restructuring
Discussions”
slide 16
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
What’s Left to Do What’s Left to Do How Big is the Region’s Conservation How Big is the Region’s Conservation
Resource?Resource? Cost effective & achievable potentialCost effective & achievable potential
= 2800 aMW by 2025= 2800 aMW by 2025 Remaining Potential Equivalent to Regional Remaining Potential Equivalent to Regional
Accomplishments 1980 - 2001Accomplishments 1980 - 2001 Could meet half of the region’s annual load Could meet half of the region’s annual load
growth under “medium” forecastgrowth under “medium” forecast
slide 17
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Cost-Effective and Achievable Conservation Cost-Effective and Achievable Conservation Could Meet Over 10% of PNW Loads in 2025Could Meet Over 10% of PNW Loads in 2025
(Medium Forecast)(Medium Forecast)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Cost-Effective Potential(aMW in 2025)
Agricultural Sector - 80 aMW
Non-DSI Industrial Sector - 350 aMW
Commercial Sector Non-Building Measures - 420 aMW
HVAC, Envelope & Refrigeration - 375 aMW
New Commercial Building Lighting - 220 aMW
Existing Commercial Buildings Lighting - 130 aMW
Residential Space Conditioning - 240 aMW
Residential Lighting - 530 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 325 aMW
Residential Appliances - 140 aMW
Cost and Achievable Potential by Sector and End UseCost and Achievable Potential by Sector and End Use
1.7 1.7
2.2
1.3
4.3
2.5
3.6
5.2
2.1
2.6 2.8
1.6
2.2
3.2
2.2 2.3
4.6
2.83.1
3.4
1.72.1
0
100
200
300
400
500
600A
chie
veab
le P
ote
nti
al (
MW
a)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Ave
rag
e C
ost
(C
ents
/kW
h)
slide 19
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Where Did All This Potential Where Did All This Potential Come From?Come From?
New technology and/or lower cost of existing New technology and/or lower cost of existing technologiestechnologies– High performance T8 lighting, control optimization, High performance T8 lighting, control optimization,
compact fluorescent lightingcompact fluorescent lighting New applicationsNew applications
– Sewage treatment, LED traffic signalsSewage treatment, LED traffic signals New end uses evaluatedNew end uses evaluated
– Network PC controlNetwork PC control– AC/DC power converters AC/DC power converters – Commercial refrigerators, freezers, ice-makersCommercial refrigerators, freezers, ice-makers
slide 20
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Combined With Higher Forecast Combined With Higher Forecast of Future Market Prices!!!of Future Market Prices!!!
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15
Mark
er
Pri
ce (
20
00
$M
Wh
)
Draft Fifth Plan
Fourth Plan
slide 21
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Adjustments Since Last PlanAdjustments Since Last Plan
Reflect new codes & standardsReflect new codes & standards Reflect conservation achievedReflect conservation achieved Incorporate new base line dataIncorporate new base line data
– Commercial Building Stock AssessmentCommercial Building Stock Assessment– Penetration of existing programs (E-Star)Penetration of existing programs (E-Star)– Census data, utility data, economic dataCensus data, utility data, economic data
Higher Avoided CostsHigher Avoided Costs New TechnologyNew Technology
slide 22
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Total Residential Sector Cost-Total Residential Sector Cost-Effective & Realistically Achievable Effective & Realistically Achievable
Potential = 1275 aMWPotential = 1275 aMW
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Residential SpaceConditioning - 240 aMW
Residential Lighting - 530aMW
Residential Water Heating- 325 aMW
Residential Appliances -140 aMW
slide 23
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Sector Achievable Resource Residential Sector Achievable Resource Potential by Major End UsePotential by Major End Use
Residential Water Heating - 325 aMW
26%
Residential Appliances - 140
aMW11%
Residential Space Conditioning - 240
aMW19%
Residential Lighting - 530 aMW
44%
slide 24
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for AppliancesPotential for Appliances
Clothes Washers - 140 aMW
91%
Dishwashers - 10 aMW6%
Refrigerators - 5 aMW3%
slide 25
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Water HeatingPotential for Water Heating
Efficient Tanks29%
95 aMW
Waste Water Heat Recovery
4%15 aMW
Heat Pump Water Heaters
67%225 aMW
slide 26
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Space ConditioningPotential for Space Conditioning
Duct Sealing, Commissioning and Controls - 10 aMW
3%
Energy Star - Manufactured Homes -
20 aMW7%
Duct Sealing - 10 aMW3%
Duct Sealing and System
Commissioning - 5 aMW2%
Energy Star Heat Pump Upgrades - 60
aMW21%
Energy Star - Multifamily Homes - 5
aMW2%
Energy Star - Single Family Homes - 20
aMW7%
Weatherization - Manufactured Home -
20 aMW7%
Weatherization - Multifamily - 30 aMW
10%
Weatherization - Single Family - 40
aMW14%
Energy Star Heat Pump Conversions -
70 aMW24%
slide 27
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Total Commercial Sector Realistically Total Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential = 1105 aMW Achievable Potential = 1105 aMW
(Medium Forecast – 2025(Medium Forecast – 2025))
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
I nfrastructure
Equipment
Envelope
Lighting
HVAC
slide 28
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Total Commercial Sector Realistically Total Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential by Major End UseAchievable Potential by Major End Use
Equipment32%
Envelope2%
Lighting35%
Infrastructure7% HVAC
24%
slide 29
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for “Non-Buildings”Potential for “Non-Buildings”
(Medium Forecast - 2025) = 420 aMW(Medium Forecast - 2025) = 420 aMW
Efficient Power Supplies
38%155 aMW
Packaged Refrigeration Equipment
16%70 aMW
Network PC Power Management
15%60 aMW
Municipal Sewage Treatment
14%60 aMW
Municipal Water Supply5%
20 aMW
LED Exit Signs10%
45 aMW
LED Traffic Lights2%
10 aMW
slide 30
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Commercial Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Buildings = 685 aMW Potential for Buildings = 685 aMW
(Medium Forecast - 2025)(Medium Forecast - 2025)
Lighting50%
335 aMW
Refrigeration5%
35 aMWEnvelope3%
20 aMW
Equipment2%
15 aMWHVAC40%
265 aMW
slide 31
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Industrial Sector Industrial Sector Conservation PotentialConservation Potential
Estimate of 5% of 2025 forecast loadsEstimate of 5% of 2025 forecast loads 350 aMW at 1.7 cents per kWh350 aMW at 1.7 cents per kWh Process controls, drive systems, lighting, Process controls, drive systems, lighting,
refrigerationrefrigeration Significant uncertainty around estimate due Significant uncertainty around estimate due
to ongoing changes in region’s industrial to ongoing changes in region’s industrial mixmix
slide 32
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Irrigated Agriculture Sector Realistically Irrigated Agriculture Sector Realistically Achievable Potential = 80 aMWAchievable Potential = 80 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Replace Pumps, Nozzles &Gaskets
Replace Nozzles & Gaskets
Convert Center Pivots fromMedium to Low Pressure
Convert Center Pivots from Highto Low Pressure
slide 33
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
How Much Should We Do?How Much Should We Do?Derivation of Regional Conservation TargetsDerivation of Regional Conservation Targets
Used Portfolio Model to identify “least Used Portfolio Model to identify “least risk” and “least cost” level of conservation risk” and “least cost” level of conservation developmentdevelopment– Separate annual targets for “lost opportunity” Separate annual targets for “lost opportunity”
and “non-lost opportunity” resourcesand “non-lost opportunity” resources– Model “worked up conservation supply curve” Model “worked up conservation supply curve” – Increased quantities came at increased costs, Increased quantities came at increased costs,
but reduce system risks but reduce system risks
slide 34
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Conservation Regional Conservation Supply CurveSupply Curve
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Conservation Potential (MWa)
Real Levelized
Co
st
($/
MW
h)
slide 35
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Conservation Development Conservation Development Levels AnalyzedLevels Analyzed
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Annual C
onse
rvati
on D
eve
lopm
ent
(MW
a)
Lost Opportunity Non-Lost Opportunity
slide 36
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Average Cost of Conservation by Average Cost of Conservation by
Level of DevelopmentLevel of Development
20
25
30
35
40
45
2,050 2,330 2,580 2,770 2,850 2,900 2,950 2,990 3,030 3,070 3,110
Conservation Developed Over Planning Period (MWa)
Rea
l Le
veliz
ed C
ost
of
Conse
rvat
ion
Dev
eloped
($/M
Wh)
slide 37
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
System Cost vs. Risk for Alternative System Cost vs. Risk for Alternative Levels of Conservation DevelopmentLevels of Conservation Development
$27.70
$27.80
$27.90
$28.00
$28.10
$28.20
$28.30
$28.40
$28.50
$17.80 $18.00 $18.20 $18.40 $18.60 $18.80 $19.00 $19.20
Net Present Value System Cost (bllion$)
Net
Pre
sent
Valu
e S
yste
m R
isk
(bill
ion
$)
150 MWa/yr
110 MWa/yr
145 MWa/yr
130 MWa/yr
155 MWa/yr
160 MWa/yr
slide 38
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Changes in System Cost and Risk for Changes in System Cost and Risk for Alternative Annual Conservation Alternative Annual Conservation
TargetsTargets
-$1,500
-$1,000
-$500
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
110 130 145 150 155 160
Annual Conservation Development (MWa)
Net
Pre
sen
t V
alu
e S
yst
em
C
ost
/Ris
k (
million
)
Increased Cost
Reduced Risk
slide 39
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
WECC Carbon Dioxide Emissions WECC Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions for Alternative Reductions for Alternative
Conservation TargetsConservation Targets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
110 130 145 150 155 160Annual Conservation Development (MWa)
Redu
ctiion
in
WE
CC
Carb
on
Dio
xid
e
Em
issi
on
s (M
illion
Ton
s)
slide 40
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Annual Conservation Development Annual Conservation Development for Least Risk and Least Cost Plansfor Least Risk and Least Cost Plans
PreliminaryPreliminary
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Year
An
nu
al C
on
serv
ati
on
D
evelo
ped
(M
Wa)
Least Cost
Least Risk
slide 41
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
PreliminaryPreliminary Annual Target in Annual Target in the Range of 130-150 MWathe Range of 130-150 MWa
Compared to “business-as-usual” case of 50 Compared to “business-as-usual” case of 50 MWa/year, stabilizing conservation deployment at MWa/year, stabilizing conservation deployment at 150 MWa/year would: 150 MWa/year would: – Reduce NPV system cost by ~5%Reduce NPV system cost by ~5%– Reduce regional “risk” by nearly ~10%Reduce regional “risk” by nearly ~10%– Reduce WECC carbon dioxide emissions by Reduce WECC carbon dioxide emissions by
nearly 80 million tons over the next 20-yearsnearly 80 million tons over the next 20-years
slide 42
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Residential SectorResidential SectorPreliminaryPreliminary Annual Acquisitions Targets Annual Acquisitions Targets
2005 to 2010 = 75 aMW2005 to 2010 = 75 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Lost-Opportunity
Non-Lost Opportunity
Annual Total Resource Cost = $75 Million
Annual Total Resource Cost = $155 Million
slide 43
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Commercial Sector Commercial Sector PreliminaryPreliminary Annual Acquisitions Targets Annual Acquisitions Targets
2005 – 2010 = 55 aMW2005 – 2010 = 55 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
Lost OpportunityRetrofit
Annual Total Resource Cost = $70 million
Annual Total Resource Cost = $50 million
slide 44
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Industrial Sector Industrial Sector PreliminaryPreliminary Annual Acquisitions Targets Annual Acquisitions Targets
2005 – 2010 = 15 aMW2005 – 2010 = 15 aMW
0
5
10
15
20
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
Non-LostOpportunity
Annual Total Resource Cost = $20 million
slide 45
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Irrigated Agriculture Sector Irrigated Agriculture Sector PreliminaryPreliminary Annual Acquisitions Targets Annual Acquisitions Targets
2005 – 2010 = 5 aMW2005 – 2010 = 5 aMW
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Avera
ge M
egaw
att
s
Non-LostOpportunity
Annual Total Resource Cost = $10 million
slide 46
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Regional Conservation Resource Regional Conservation Resource PreliminaryPreliminary Annual Acquisition Targets Annual Acquisition Targets
2005 – 2010 = 150 aMW2005 – 2010 = 150 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Lost Opportunity Non Lost Opportunity
Reso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al
(aM
W)
I rrigated Agriculture
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
slide 47
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Total Resource Acquisition Total Resource Acquisition Cost = $380 millionCost = $380 million
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
LostOpportunity
Non-LostOpportunity
Acq
uis
itio
n C
ost
s(M
illion
s 2
00
0$
)
I rrigated Agriculture
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
slide 48
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
To Meet Council’s Draft Plan Targets To Meet Council’s Draft Plan Targets Regional Conservation Investments Will Regional Conservation Investments Will
Have to Increase Significantly or Be More Have to Increase Significantly or Be More EfficientEfficient
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 20022005 -2025
AnnualTarget
Mill
ions
(2000$
)
Regional Utility Conservation Acquisition Expenditures
slide 49
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Is 150 MWa/yr “Doable”?Is 150 MWa/yr “Doable”? It’s half the region’s load growth!It’s half the region’s load growth!
– But it’s only about 1/3 more than we achieved from 2000 – 2002But it’s only about 1/3 more than we achieved from 2000 – 2002– We did it before – now we have 20 years experience and We did it before – now we have 20 years experience and
infrastructure (e.g.,Alliance, federal standards, utility staff and infrastructure (e.g.,Alliance, federal standards, utility staff and programs)programs)
There’s not that much out there!There’s not that much out there!– Half is lost-opportunities which haven’t happened yetHalf is lost-opportunities which haven’t happened yet– Nearly two-thirds is new stuffNearly two-thirds is new stuff– Getting it all means PNW must be 10% more efficient in 20 yearsGetting it all means PNW must be 10% more efficient in 20 years
It will raise rates too much!It will raise rates too much!– About 2/3 (or more) of cost of meeting target is already in ratesAbout 2/3 (or more) of cost of meeting target is already in rates– Additional cost ~$50 - $75 million/yr = less than 1% of regional Additional cost ~$50 - $75 million/yr = less than 1% of regional
utility revenue requirementsutility revenue requirements
slide 50
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
It’s Not Your Father’s OldsmobileIt’s Not Your Father’s Oldsmobile LargestLargest Measures Are Still UntappedMeasures Are Still Untapped
Residential CFLs (19% of year 2025 potential)Residential CFLs (19% of year 2025 potential) High-Performance Commercial Lighting (13%)High-Performance Commercial Lighting (13%) Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters (7% )Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters (7% ) AC/DC Power Converters (5%)AC/DC Power Converters (5%) Residential Clothes Washers (5%)Residential Clothes Washers (5%) Sewage & Water Treatment (3%)Sewage & Water Treatment (3%) Fix Roof Top Economizers (3%)Fix Roof Top Economizers (3%) Commercial Refrigerators, Freezers, Ice (2%)Commercial Refrigerators, Freezers, Ice (2%) Network PC Control (2%)Network PC Control (2%) Low-Pressure Distribution (2%)Low-Pressure Distribution (2%)
slide 51
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Plan Conservation Action Items -1Plan Conservation Action Items -1
Focus on “Lost Opportunity” ConservationFocus on “Lost Opportunity” Conservation– Half the 150 MWa annual targetHalf the 150 MWa annual target– New initiatives are needed at all levelsNew initiatives are needed at all levels
Establish Mechanism for Regional Establish Mechanism for Regional Coordination and Program AdministrationCoordination and Program Administration– Reduce cost and improve performanceReduce cost and improve performance– Current coordination is ad hocCurrent coordination is ad hoc– Bonneville no longer positioned to serve as Bonneville no longer positioned to serve as
regional “administrator”regional “administrator”
slide 52
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Plan Conservation Action Items -2Plan Conservation Action Items -2
Aggressive Utility Action Is Needed to Aggressive Utility Action Is Needed to Achieve TargetsAchieve Targets– Consumer actions are unlikely to capture all Consumer actions are unlikely to capture all
regionally cost- effective conservation savingsregionally cost- effective conservation savings Utility programs should be efficient, but Utility programs should be efficient, but
meet targetmeet target– Rate impacts of conservation always an issueRate impacts of conservation always an issue– Potential conflict between capturing “lost Potential conflict between capturing “lost
opportunities” and meeting “first cost” goalsopportunities” and meeting “first cost” goals
slide 53
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Plan Conservation Action Items -3Plan Conservation Action Items -3
A Mix of Mechanisms Will Be NeededA Mix of Mechanisms Will Be Needed– Local acquisition programs must be expandedLocal acquisition programs must be expanded
» Target represents 50% increase over 2002 Target represents 50% increase over 2002 accomplishments accomplishments
– DoubleDouble budget for regional market budget for regional market transformation transformation
» New initiatives New initiatives » Expanded initiativesExpanded initiatives» Regional investments in “infrastructure” neededRegional investments in “infrastructure” needed
slide 54
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
SummarySummary
It's big – Around 2800 aMWIt's big – Around 2800 aMW It’s cheap ~ 2.4 cents/kWhIt’s cheap ~ 2.4 cents/kWh It's new “stuff” and improved “old stuff”It's new “stuff” and improved “old stuff” It's half lost opportunityIt's half lost opportunity It’s nearly all capitalIt’s nearly all capital It’s going to require more money at a time when It’s going to require more money at a time when
utilities are faced with the bad politics of rate utilities are faced with the bad politics of rate increases – but it’s “doable”increases – but it’s “doable”
BothBoth regional regional costcost and and riskrisk increase if we failincrease if we fail