Upload
others
View
6
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Stefan Hubrich, CFA, Ph.D., Director of Asset Allocation Research,
T. Rowe Price
Judith Ward, CFP®,Senior Financial Planner, T. Rowe Price
Considerations for
Evaluating Target
Date Glide Paths
Things to Keep in Mind
We are introducing a framework for target date evaluation.
We are focusing on the equity exposure—the main driver.
(And recognize there are many other important factors).
We will consider highly stylized cases, and in reality, plan
sponsors face variety in their process.
We will focus on how goals and behavior interact with target
date evaluation and outcomes.
2
Target Date Evaluation Is Getting Complicated
3
LOTS OF RESEARCH
MEDIA BUZZ
WIDE RANGE OF CHOICES
GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT
Department of Labor
DC plans move to custom target-date portfolios
Participant needs are key to move toward custom target-date funds
Should Retirees Rely on Target-Date Funds?
TARGET DATE
EVALUATION
Misleading Single Drivers of Target Date Evaluation
4
cation/single
TARGET DATE
EVALUATION
Longevity risk
Fees
Market risk
Rollover behavior at retirement
Undersaving
Inflation risk
Time diversification
Component selection
What’s Important in Driving Retirement Outcomes?
5
Behavior Goals & Preferences
Equity Exposure Active/Passive
Fees Glide Path Shape
RETIREMENT
OUTCOMES
Need to Consider Everything Simultaneously
6
GOAL
RISK
FOCUS
SAVINGS
BEHAVIOR
ENVIRONMENT
EQUITY EXPOSURE
7
Plan Sponsor Determines Goal
GOAL
Focus on ability to obtain
a reliable income stream
in retirement
Focus on balance at the
time of leaving employer
(retirement or job change)
What’s the purpose of my plan?
Why do our employees value having a 401(k)?
How do we measure success—the balance or income stream?
Do we want our employees to stay in the plan when they leave?
GOAL
RETIREMENT
INCOME
BALANCE
ACCUMULATION
8
Both Retirement Income and Balance Risk Are Impacted by Market Risk
RISK FOCUS
Real World Risk Drivers
Uncertainties that need to be included
in the analysis
Risks Experienced by Participants
What ultimately matters from participants’
perspective
RETIREMENT INCOME RISK
BALANCE RISK
9
What Is “Good” Behavior?
SalaryContribution
RatePARTICIPANT & EMPLOYER
Defined Benefit
PlanLOW
HIGH
Leads to stronger
asset growth potential
Social Security is phased
out at higher levels
The results:
– Replace lower income percentage for high earners
– Higher earners demand more from 401(k) to maintain standard of living in retirement
Reduces income
demand from
401(k) assets
in retirement
SAVINGS BEHAVIOR
Sponsors impact savings behavior—the cash flows in and out of the plan.
10
Capturing the Environment Appropriately
ENVIRONMENT
WHY THIS MATTERS
Represent “how the world works”
Must capture correctly
Empirical exercise
Modeling work for the Target Date provider
Model the uncertainties (“risks”) to capture
the distribution of these factors
– Better way to be conservative than a
fixed “pessimistic” assumption
Capital Markets Longevity
Laws and Regulations
11
Goal? Risk Focus?
BALANCEACCUMULATION
RETIREMENTINCOME
BALANCERISK
RETIREMENTINCOME
RISK
EQUITY EXPOSURE
MORE
EQUITY
Equity exposure actually hedges retirement income risk.
12
WORSE
Goal? Risk Focus?
BALANCEACCUMULATION
RETIREMENTINCOME
BALANCERISK
RETIREMENTINCOME
RISK
Savings Behavior?
EQUITY EXPOSURE
LESS
EQUITY
BETTER
Good behavior makes it easier to address balance risk.
13
WORSE
Goal? Risk Focus?
BALANCEACCUMULATION
RETIREMENTINCOME
BALANCERISK
RETIREMENTINCOME
RISK
Savings Behavior?
EQUITY EXPOSURE
BETTER
Challenging behavior forces a tough choice between goal and risk.
14
Goal? Risk Focus?
BALANCEACCUMULATION
RETIREMENTINCOME
BALANCERISK
EQUITY EXPOSURE
MORE
EQUITY
Equities can potentially help balance accumulation if sponsor is not concerned about risk.
RETIREMENTINCOME
RISK
15
Goal?
BALANCEACCUMULATION
RETIREMENTINCOME
EQUITY EXPOSURE
LESS
EQUITY
Risk tolerance drives equity exposure with accumulation goal.
Risk Focus?
BALANCERISK
RETIREMENTINCOME
RISK
16
Read the full research paper:
Evaluation of Target-Date
Glide Paths Within
Defined Contribution Plans
17
ACTUALLYWhat’s
Happening?
What is your priority in target date design
between asset growth to support lifetime
income generation vs. capital preservation?
18
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E)
1 2 3 4 5
Exclusive
emphasis on
capital
preservation
Both objectives
equally
important
Exclusive
emphasis on
lifetime income
generation
19
4%
36%
27%
34%
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E)
1 2 3 4 5
Exclusive
emphasis on
capital
preservation
Both objectives
equally
important
Exclusive
emphasis on
lifetime income
generation
0%
Participants Have a Retirement Income Focus Too
20
84% 65-year-old Terminated Participants
are out of plan in 3 years
Assets remain invested in the retirement system
Participants Don’t React to Market Events
21
86% 97%Non-Target Date investors did nothing Target Date investors did nothing
How Do Participants Behave?
22 Source: PSCA’s 56th Annual Survey of Profit Sharing and 401(k) Plans (2013), reflecting plan year 2012
As of December 31, 2012
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Industry Average of Participants Contributing (left axis)
S&P 500 Index Year-End Close (right axis)
Percentage of
participants
contributing to
their plan stays in
the mid-80%s
regardless
of market
performance
How Do Participants React?
23 Source: PSCA’s 56th Annual Survey of Profit Sharing and 401(k) Plans (2013), reflecting plan year 2012. Non-HCEs.
As of December 31, 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
S&P 500 Index Year-End Close (right axis)
Industry Average of Contribution Amount (left axis)
Contribution Target Amount (left axis)
Participant
contribution
amount stays
around 5%
regardless of
market
performance
We Need to Close the Gap
24 Source: PSCA’s 56th Annual Survey of Profit Sharing and 401(k) Plans (2013), reflecting plan year 2012. Non-HCEs.
As of December 31, 2012
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
S&P 500 Index Year-End Close (right axis)
Contribution Target Amount (left axis)
Industry Average of Contribution Amount (left axis)
Participants
are not saving
nearly enough
15% Contribution Target Amount
The Tradeoff
25
We can’t have our employees save 2% more. That would
mean a 2% drop in their lifestyle; they can’t handle that!
Implied framing:
No Treatment (Do Nothing)
David ($40,000 salary): Age 25
– $0 balance
– 0% contribution rate
– 0% employer contribution
When David starts withdrawals
at age 65, what percent of his
salary will he replace?
26
David, Age 25
27
Employer match of 50%, up to 6%; 7% rate of return; 3% inflation. Current lifestyle is 90% of current salary (remainder lost to payroll taxes, rounded off to 10%) minus final savings rate; 25% of current salary is replaced by Social
Security and Other sources (e.g., DB plan or wages). Number shown is percent of lifestyle covered by savings at age 65 with a 4% initial withdrawal amount. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not meant to represent the
performance of any specific investment option.
28%Income
Replaced
Income Replaced
49%
Income Replaced
100%
Drop in Lifestyle
51%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Treatment Auto-enrollment: 3%Auto-increase: 0%
Auto-enrollment:6%Auto-increase: 2%
Total: 15%
72%DROP IN
LIFESTYLE
Reframe the Trade-off
It’s not 2% vs. 0%
The choice is 2% vs. 72%!
28
David, Age 25
29
Employer match of 50%, up to 6%; 7% rate of return; 3% inflation. Current lifestyle is 90% of current salary (remainder lost to payroll taxes, rounded off to 10%) minus final savings rate; 25% of current salary is replaced by Social
Security and Other sources (e.g., DB plan or wages). Number shown is percent of lifestyle covered by savings at age 65 with a 4% initial withdrawal amount. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and not meant to represent the
performance of any specific investment option.
28%Income
Replaced
49%Income
Replaced
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Treatment Auto-enrollment: 3%Auto-increase: 0%
Auto-enrollment:6%Auto-increase: 2%
Total: 15%
72%DROP IN
LIFESTYLE
51%DROP IN
LIFESTYLE
100%INCOME
REPLACED
Who Is Being Helped by Auto Solutions?
30
CurrentNew
Improve savings behavior by including all employees in auto solutions.
Here’s What You Need to Remember
You should consider plan goals and risk focus when evaluating
target date glide paths.
Most plan sponsors and participants still display a retirement
income focus—implying a healthy equity exposure is appropriate
for them.
Behavior is a key input for target date evaluation, and it drives
retirement outcomes.
Plan sponsors can overcome challenging savings behavior with
intelligent plan design.
31
32 T. Rowe Price Investment Services, Inc., distributor, T. Rowe Price mutual funds.
Call 1-877-804-2315 to request a prospectus, which includes
investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses, and other information
that you should read and consider carefully before investing.
The principal value of target-date investments is not guaranteed at any
time, including at or after the target date, which is the approximate date
when investors plan to retire. These investments typically invest in a
broad range of stocks, bonds, and short-term investments and are
subject to the risks of different areas of the market. In addition, the
objectives of target-date investments typically change over time to
become more conservative.