Consumer Attitudes and Online Retail Dynamics in India ... - SP.pdfConsumer Attitudes and Online Retail Dynamics in China, 2014–2019 Published: July 2015 Summary “Consumer Attitudes

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Consumer Attitudes and Online Retail Dynamics in

China, 2014–2019

Reference Code: RT0212IS

Published: July 2015

Report Price: US$1,450 (Single Copy)

©Conlumino 2015 | This product is licensed and is not to be photocopied or reproduced.

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Consumer Attitudes and Online Retail Dynamics in China, 2014–2019


Summary

“Consumer Attitudes and Online Retail Development in China, 2014–2019” is the result of Conlumino’s

extensive market research covering the online retail industry in China. It provides the magnitude, growth, share,

and dynamics of the online retail market in China. It is an essential tool for companies active across the Chinese

online retail value chain and for new companies considering entry into online the retail market in China. It

provides data for historic and forecast online retail sales, and also includes the business environment and

country risk related to Chinese online retail environment. In addition, it analyses the key consumer trends

influencing the Chinese online retail industry.

By examining best practice from the leading national large-scale online retailers (but specifically excluding the

likes of Amazon, whose sites are well-known and vary little by country), as well as reviewing innovative

approaches from smaller retailers, the report provides insights and ideas about how best to approach growing

online sales for your business.

Key Findings

Omni channel retailing is gaining ground among major offline retailers

Leading e-commerce retailers now eyeing lower tier cities for further expansion with new approaches to

offset a saturated urban market

Fresh food e-commerce is gradually gaining popularity among the consumers

The m-commerce share of e-commerce is rapidly increasing with improved mobile network connectivity and

rising payment confidence levels

Apparel, accessories, luggage and leather goods is the most sold category online, and is forecast to be the

most sold category in 2019


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Reasons to Buy

Get immediate access to:

Improve market and strategic planning using highly granular, forward-looking market data. Detailed

category coverage is provided, covering 26 products, across nine product groups that include: Apparel,

Accessories, Luggage and Leather Goods, Book, News and Stationery, Electricals and Electronics, Food

and Grocery, Health & Beauty, Furniture and Floor Coverings, Home and Garden Products, Music, Video

and Entertainment Software, and Sports and Leisure Equipment – Understand the consumer behavior and

online trends in China

In-depth analysis of the latest trends in online consumer shopping, covering the factors driving online

shopping – Understand which products will be the major winners and losers in the online arena in the

coming years Historic and forecast online retail sales

Learn from best practice approaches outlined in the case studies of leading online retailers By examining

best practice from the leading national large-scale online retailers (but specifically excluding the likes of

Amazon, whose sites are well-known and vary little by country), as well as reviewing innovative approaches

from smaller retailers, the report provides insights and ideas about how best to approach growing online

sales for your business


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1. Online Channel Dynamics

1.1 The Online Channel’s Share of Total Retail Sales

1.1.1 China online vs. offline channel forecasts

The share of online retail sales towards total retail sales increased from XX% in 2009 to XX% in 2014 and

we expect the share of online retail sales to reach XX% in 2019.

Figure 1: China Online and Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY billion), 2009–2019

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

XX

2009 2014 2019

On

lin

e R

eta

il S

ale

s (

CN

Y b

n)

Offline Retail Sales Online Retail Sales Share of Online Retail Sales

Source: Conlumino /© Conlumino

Table 1: China Online vs. Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY billion), 2009–2019

Channel Group 2009 2014 2019 CAGR 2009–

2014 CAGR 2014–

2019

Offline Retail Sales

Online Retail Sales

Overall

Source: Conlumino © Conlumino


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Table 2: China Online vs. Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (US$ billion), 2009–2019


2014 CAGR 2014–

2019


Online Retail Sales

Overall


Table 3: China Online vs. Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (% Share), 2009–2019


2014 CAGR 2014–

2019


Online Retail Sales



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1.2 Channel Dynamics

1.2.1 China retail channel dynamics – future performance

Online retailers was the fastest-growing retail channel with a CAGR of XX% during 2009–2014, followed

by general retailers with a CAGR of XX%, value retailers with a CAGR of XX%, and specialist retailers

with a CAGR of XX% during 2009–2014.

Figure 2: China Overall Retail Market Dynamics by Channel Group, 2009–2019

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

XX%

-XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Fo

rec

as

t G

row

th R

ate

(2

01

4–

20

19

)

Historic Growth Rate (2009–2014)

General retailers

Specialist retailers

Value retailers

Online


Table 4: China Overall Retail Segmentation (CNY billion) by Channel Group, 2009–2019

Channel CAGR 2009–

2014 CAGR 2014–2019

Retail Sales (2019, CNY billion)

General retailers

Specialist retailers

Value retailers

Online

Overall



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1.2.2 Online vs. offline retail sales comparison by category group, 2014

A notably significant share of the sales of music, video, and entertainment software, electrical and

electronics and books, news and stationery are made through the online retail channel.

Figure 3: China Retail Sales, Online vs. Offline, 2014

XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX% XX%

Music, video and entertainmentsoftware

Electrical and electronics

Books, news and stationery

Apparel, accessories, luggageand leather goods

Sports and leisure equipment

Health and beauty

Home and garden products

Furniture and floor coverings

Food and grocery

Online Share Offline share



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Table 5: China Retail Sales Split (CNY million), Online vs. Offline, 2014

Category Group Total Retail Sales Online Sales Online Share (%)

Apparel, accessories, luggage and leather goods


Food and grocery




Health and beauty


Music, video and entertainment software

Overall


Table 6: China Retail Sales Split (US$ million), Online vs. Offline, 2014

Category Group Total Retail Sales Online Sales Online Share (%)

Apparel, accessories, luggage and leather goods


Food and grocery




Health and beauty


Music, video and entertainment software

Overall



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1.3 Summary Methodology

1.3.1 Overview

All data in this series of retail reports from Conlumino is rigorously sourced using a comprehensive,

standardized methodology. This methodology ensures that all data is thoroughly researched and cross–

checked against a number of sources and validation processes. At the core of this methodology is a

triangulated market sizing approach, which ensures that results from different sources and approaches,

including Conlumino’s own industry surveys, are compared and a final consensus number between these

inputs is derived. In addition, standardized processes and quality controls across the entire data

collection, analysis and publication process ensure compliance and cross–checking of the data occurs at

each stage of the methodology.

1.3.2 The triangulated market sizing method

The triangulation method ensures that the results from three distinct phases of the research are brought

together and cross–compared before finalized market numbers are derived:

1. Existing internal resources: as retail data is compiled using a rolling annual program of industry research, the first stage of producing the data is to review the existing internal information, both from the last major data release, as well as that which has been collected on an ongoing basis throughout the year. This includes inputs about market as well as individual retailer performance. These sources are then reviewed and incorporated into data collection processes and databases before the second intensive phase of desk research.

2. Extensive desk research: this phase of the methodology incorporates the main phase of secondary research. This research is initially conducted across a wealth of information sources, as listed below. In addition, the results of any relevant surveys from other Conlumino projects are also fed into data collection sheets. Online industry surveys can include industry opinion surveys of retailers’ — and their suppliers’ — sentiment and consumer surveys of purchasing and retail behavior. Secondary sources include, but are not limited to, the following:

a. Industry surveys b. Industry and trade association research c. Trade portals d. Company filings and analyst presentations e. Broker and investment analyst reports f. International organizations g. Government statistics h. Retail media i. National Press, including both business and consumer titles

3. Market modeling: the next stage in the process is to feed the results of the above into market

models, which also include drive–based forecasting tools — which analyze drivers such as disposable income, product uptake, macro–economic drivers and market momentum — in order to fill in any gaps in the data and update forecast numbers. At this stage, the market


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models also look to update channel distribution data sets. For example, information found at the research and trend monitoring stage on online retail sales would directly affect the channel distribution models.

4. Data finalization: the final stage of the process is the true triangulation of all the previous inputs. At this stage data is created using the inputs to hand in a bottom–up fashion, starting with the inputs from each of the previous three stages of the process for each data point to be published. This is done for all the product, channel and country combinations covered in the data. At this stage, therefore, the project analysts are constantly evaluating and deciding upon the relative merits of each of the inputs from the research processes. Once a triangulated set of data has been finalized, these outputs are then thoroughly cross–checked using a series of top–down checks which review the data against a series of reference benchmarking, including known overall retail sizes, growth trends and per–capita spending rates.

Figure 4: The Triangulated Market Sizing Methodology



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1.3.3 Industry surveys in the creation of retail market data

Stage 2 of the above process includes using the outputs of Conlumino’s surveys of consumers’ packaged

goods consumption and industry opinion. Every year Conlumino completes a large scale survey, with

over 120,000 responses, covering CPG purchasing and consumption habits in 10 core retail markets

around the globe. This major study, cross-referenced against the primary telephone research of product

market sizes by country, provides outputs against which relevant retail market data, focusing on the

grocery channel and core products in this channel are assessed. It should be noted that overall, this feeds

research into 3 of the 25 product categories covered. In addition, any other suitable surveys conducted by

Conlumino which also provide information on retail markets are mined for information to be put into the

data finalization process.

1.3.4 Quality control and standardized processes

Crucial to the function of the above method is the adoption of strict definitions for all products and

channels, and adherence to a standardized process at each and every stage in the methodology. By

following this approach all data is made cross-comparable across countries to ensure that analysis adds

to the understanding of market dynamics and trends.

The key elements of this approach are:

Strict channel definitions: the definition of each channel is the same in every country;

Strict product definitions: the definition of each product is the same in every country;

Standardized processes:

o Data capture – all data received as part of the research is captured in standardized files and in a

standard format. Any workings that analysts carry out on inputs, for example to correct for

misalignment in category coverage, are also covered in these sheets

o Data creation – all modeling and forecasting approaches are standardized in order to ensure

consistency

o Finalization and verification – systematic methods and approaches are used to finalize data

points

Country by country research structure: all research is conducted country by country in order to

ensure that market data reflect local market trends and contexts

Data checks during “bottom-up” creation: during the data creation and finalization stage analysts

refer back to initial sources and inputs in order to ensure accuracy in the data

Top down data audits and cross-checks: a large series of cross-checks across all the different

dimensions of the final data sets are run in order to identify any outliers or trends that do not fit with

Conlumino’s market understanding, as well as to conduct specific analyses against set proofing

criteria, such as abnormal growth rate changes, verifying data at both the overall and detailed level

against research inputs and checking per capita spends against other analysis of consumers’

spending in a country

Hierarchical review processes: finally, all of the above processes are subject to a hierarchical review process which ensures that not only the core analysts within a team look at the data, but that at each stage data is passed through several management layers in order that queries and data review and sign-off are completed before any final data can be published


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Table of Contents

1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 6

1.1 What is this Report About? ................................................................................................. 6

2. Market at a glance ............................................................................................. 7

3. Consumer Insight: Online Shopping Attitudes and Behaviors .............................. 8

3.1 Overview of China’s Online Shopping Environment ......................................................... 10

3.1.1 Growing Internet penetration acting as a catalyst for emerging online shopping market ............. 10

3.1.2 Improved broadband infrastructure will encourage online shopping ............................................ 11

3.1.3 Increasing use of mobile Internet will boost mobile shopping ....................................................... 12

3.2 Consumer Attitudes and Behavior .................................................................................... 13

3.2.1 Chinese parents’ online spending on baby products is on the rise ................................................. 13

3.2.2 “Singles’ Day” provides immense potential for online retailing ..................................................... 14

3.2.3 Chinese senior citizens – the new online shoppers ........................................................................ 15

3.2.4 Social Media affecting the purchasing decision of Chinese consumers .......................................... 16

3.2.5 Online retailers plunging into shipping & logistics business ........................................................... 17

3.2.6 Omni channel retailing is gaining ground among major offline retailers ........................................ 18

3.2.7 Fresh food e-commerce – An emerging trend in China .................................................................. 19

3.2.8 Online retailers targeting rural consumers ..................................................................................... 20

3.2.9 Rising popularity of M-commerce ................................................................................................... 21

4. Online Channel Dynamics ................................................................................. 22

4.1 The Online Channel’s Share of Total Retail Sales .............................................................. 24

4.1.1 China online vs. offline channel forecasts ....................................................................................... 24

4.1.2 Online penetration: global and regional comparisons .................................................................... 26

4.2 Channel Dynamics ............................................................................................................. 28

4.2.1 China retail channel dynamics – future performance ..................................................................... 28

4.2.2 Channel group share development ................................................................................................. 29

4.2.3 Individual channel performance ..................................................................................................... 30

4.3 Category Dynamics ............................................................................................................ 33

4.3.1 Online vs. offline retail sales comparison by category group, 2014 ............................................... 33

4.3.2 Online retail market dynamics by category .................................................................................... 35

4.3.3 Online retail sales share by category group .................................................................................... 37

4.3.4 Online retail sales growth by individual category ........................................................................... 39

4.3.5 Food and grocery categories: market size and forecasts ................................................................ 39


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4.3.6 Electrical and Electronics categories: market size and forecasts .................................................... 42

4.3.7 Music, video, and entertainment software categories: market size and forecasts ........................ 44

4.3.8 Apparel, accessories, luggage and leather goods categories: size and forecasts ........................... 46

4.3.9 Books, News and Stationery categories: Market Size and Forecasts .............................................. 48

4.3.10 Sports and Leisure equipment categories: market size and forecasts ............................................ 50

4.3.11 Furniture and floor coverings categories: market size and forecasts ............................................. 52

4.3.12 Home and Garden categories: market size and forecasts .............................................................. 54

4.3.13 Health & Beauty categories: market size and forecasts.................................................................. 56

5. Case Studies: Leading Online Retailers in China ................................................ 58

5.1 Retailer 1: JD.com ............................................................................................................. 59

5.1.1 Business Description ....................................................................................................................... 59

5.1.2 Site Experience ................................................................................................................................ 59

5.2 Retailer 2: Taobao Mall (Tmall) ......................................................................................... 67


5.2.2 Site Experience ................................................................................................................................ 67

5.3 Retailer 3: Dangdang Inc. China ........................................................................................ 74


5.3.2 Site Experience ................................................................................................................................ 74

5.4 Retailer 4: Yixun.com ........................................................................................................ 82


5.4.2 Site Experience ................................................................................................................................ 82

5.5 Other Innovative Retailers in China .................................................................................. 89

5.5.1 Carrefour China ............................................................................................................................... 89

5.5.2 Vancl China ...................................................................................................................................... 90

6. Appendix ......................................................................................................... 92

6.1 Definitions ......................................................................................................................... 92

6.1.1 This report provides 2014 actual sales; while forecasts are provided for 2015 – 2019 .................. 92

6.2 Summary Methodology..................................................................................................... 98

6.2.1 Overview ......................................................................................................................................... 98

6.2.2 The triangulated market sizing method .......................................................................................... 98

6.2.3 Industry surveys in the creation of retail market data .................................................................. 100

6.2.4 Quality control and standardized processes ................................................................................. 100

6.3 About Conlumino ............................................................................................................ 101

6.4 Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................ 101


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List of Figures

Figure 1: Share of Online Retail Sales in Total Retail Sales, 2014 and 2019 .................................................................................................. 7 Figure 2: Share of China B2B and C2C online sales, 2011–2018E ................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3: Total Internet Users and Penetration, 2009–2014 ......................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 4: Total Fixed Broadband Subscribers and Penetration, 2009–2014 ................................................................................................. 11 Figure 5: Total Mobile Phone Users and Penetration, 2009–2014 ................................................................................................................ 12 Figure 6: “Singles’ day” sales overtakes Cyber Monday to become the biggest online sales day globally .................................................... 14 Figure 7: Chinese senior citizen’s online shopping insights .......................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 8: Regional Fixed Broadband Users and its Penetration, 2012 and 2017 .......................................................................................... 22 Figure 9: Regional Mobile Broadband Users and its Penetration, 2012 and 2017 ........................................................................................ 23 Figure 10: China Online and Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY billion), 2009–2019 ............................................................................ 24 Figure 11: China Online Sales vs. Global Average (% of Total Retail) .......................................................................................................... 26 Figure 12: China Online Sales vs. Asia-Pacific Countries Average (% of Total Retail).................................................................................. 27 Figure 13: China Overall Retail Market Dynamics by Channel Group, 2009–2019 ....................................................................................... 28 Figure 14: China Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY billion) by Channel Group, 2009–2019 ........................................................................... 29 Figure 15: China Retail Sales, Online vs. Offline, 2014 ................................................................................................................................ 33 Figure 16: China Online Market Dynamics by Category Group, 2009–2019 ................................................................................................. 35 Figure 17: China Online Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY million) by Category Group, 2009–2019 .............................................................. 37 Figure 18: JD.com- Usage of Online Space ................................................................................................................................................. 60 Figure 19: JD.com – Organized Product Page ............................................................................................................................................. 61 Figure 20: JD.com – Product Image and Zoom-In Tool ............................................................................................................................... 63 Figure 21: JD.com – Customer Review Section ........................................................................................................................................... 65 Figure 22: JD.com – List of Ways Users Can Access the Mobile Website .................................................................................................... 66 Figure 23: Tmall - Usage of Online Space .................................................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 24: Tmall – Organized Product Page................................................................................................................................................. 69 Figure 25: Tmall – Zoom in tool .................................................................................................................................................................... 71 Figure 26: Tmall – Mobile Application .......................................................................................................................................................... 72 Figure 27: Alibaba– Healthcare app ............................................................................................................................................................. 73 Figure 28: Dangdang.com - Usage of Online Space .................................................................................................................................... 75 Figure 29: Dangdang.com – Organized Product Page ................................................................................................................................. 76 Figure 30: Dangdang.com – Product display tool ......................................................................................................................................... 78 Figure 31: Dangdang Inc. – Customer Review section ................................................................................................................................. 80 Figure 32: Dangdang Mobile app ................................................................................................................................................................. 81 Figure 33: Yixun.com- Usage of Online Space ............................................................................................................................................. 83 Figure 34: Yixun.com – Organized Product Page ......................................................................................................................................... 84 Figure 35: JD.com – Product Image and Zoom-In Tool ............................................................................................................................... 85 Figure 36: Yixun.com – Customer Review Section ....................................................................................................................................... 87 Figure 37: Yixun – Android Applications ....................................................................................................................................................... 88 Figure 38: Carrefour Smart Shopping Application ........................................................................................................................................ 89 Figure 39: Vancl – Star Blog ........................................................................................................................................................................ 91 Figure 40: The Triangulated Market Sizing Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 99


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List of Tables

Table 1: Online Retail Sales in China, 2014 and 2019.................................................................................................................................... 7 Table 2: China Online vs. Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY billion), 2009–2019 ................................................................................ 24 Table 3: China Online vs. Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (US$ billion), 2009–2019 ................................................................................. 25 Table 4: China Online vs. Offline Retail Sales and Forecast (% Share), 2009–2019 .................................................................................... 25 Table 5: China Online Sales vs. Global Average, 2009, 2014 and 2019 ....................................................................................................... 26 Table 6: China Online Sales vs. Asia-Pacific, 2009, 2014 and 2019 ............................................................................................................. 27 Table 7: China Overall Retail Segmentation (CNY billion) by Channel Group, 2009–2019 ........................................................................... 28 Table 8: China Channel Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY billion) by Channel Group, 2009–2019 ................................................................. 29 Table 9: China Channel Retail Sales and Forecast (US$ billion) by Channel Group, 2009–2019 ................................................................. 30 Table 10: China Channel Retail Sales and Forecast (% Share) by Channel Group, 2009–2019 .................................................................. 30 Table 11: China Channel Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY billion) by Channel, 2009–2019 ......................................................................... 31 Table 12: China Channel Retail Sales and Forecast (US$ billion) by Channel, 2009–2019 .......................................................................... 32 Table 13: China Retail Sales Split (CNY million), Online vs. Offline, 2014 .................................................................................................... 34 Table 14: China Retail Sales Split (US$ million), Online vs. Offline, 2014 .................................................................................................... 34 Table 15: China Online Market Dynamics by Category Group, 2009–2019 .................................................................................................. 36 Table 16: China Online Retail Sales and Forecast (CNY million) by Category Group, 2009–2019 ............................................................... 38 Table 17: China Online Retail Sales and Forecast (US$ million) by Category Group, 2009–2019 ................................................................ 38 Table 18: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Food and Grocery Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 ................................................. 40 Table 19: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Food and Grocery Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019.................................................. 41 Table 20: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Electrical and Electronics Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 ...................................... 42 Table 21: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Electrical and Electronics Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019 ....................................... 43 Table 22: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Music, Video and Entertainment Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 ........................... 44 Table 23: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Music, Video and Entertainment Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019 ............................ 45 Table 24: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Apparel, Accessories, Luggage and Leather Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 ......... 46 Table 25: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Apparel, Accessories, Luggage and Leather Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019.......... 47 Table 26: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Books, News and Stationery Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 ................................. 48 Table 27: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Books, News and Stationery Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019 .................................. 49 Table 28: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Sports and Leisure Equipment Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 .............................. 50 Table 29: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Sports and Leisure Equipment Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019 ............................... 51 Table 30: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Furniture and Floor Coverings Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 ............................... 52 Table 31: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Furniture and Floor Coverings Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019 ............................... 53 Table 32: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Home and Garden Products Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019.................................. 54 Table 33: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Home and Garden Products Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019 .................................. 55 Table 34: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Health & Beauty Categories (CNY million), 2009–2019 .................................................... 56 Table 35: China Total and Online Retail Sales in Health & Beauty Categories (US$ million), 2009–2019 .................................................... 57 Table 36: China Exchange Rate CNY–US$ (Annual Average), 2009–2014.................................................................................................. 92 Table 37: China Exchange Rate CNY–US$ (Annual Average), 2015–2019 Forecasts ................................................................................. 92 Table 38: Conlumino Retail Channel Definitions .......................................................................................................................................... 93 Table 39: Conlumino Retail Category Definitions ......................................................................................................................................... 95


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About Conlumino

Conlumino Global Retail offers a comprehensive 360° view of the retail landscape. A team of analysts,

with more than 200 years of combined experience, help you identify and understand the most current

retail trends.

Last year hundreds of retail businesses across the globe used our research to make critical business

decisions.

Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by

any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of

the publisher, Conlumino.

The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed.

Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Conlumino delivers will be based on

information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not

always in a position to guarantee. As such, Conlumino can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken

based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

Documents

Consumer Attitudes and Online Retail Dynamics in India ... - SP.pdfConsumer Attitudes and Online Retail Dynamics in China, 2014–2019 Published: July 2015 Summary “Consumer Attitudes