Consumer Confidence Tracker - Behaviour & Attitudes...2019/08/02 · Consumer Confidence Tracker during July 2019. Survey results are based on a sample of 1,003 adults aged 16+, quota

J.9803 | Consumer Confidence Tracker | July 20191

Consumer Confidence Tracker

July 2019

J.9803

Prepared byAnita Mullan


Introduction


Introduction● This report presents the findings of B&A’s

Consumer Confidence Tracker during July 2019.

● Survey results are based on a sample of 1,003 adults aged 16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland.

● All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face CAPI omnibus service by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines.

● Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between 4th – 16th July 2019.


● B&A is Ireland’s largest and most experienced independently owned research company.

● We pride ourselves on having the most experienced director team in Ireland.

● Established over 30 years ago, Behaviour and Attitudes provides a full range of market research services, ranging from CAPI, CATI, online and of course qualitative.

● Specialist sectors include: Retail & Shopper, Technology & Telecoms, Media, Financial, Political & Social, Automotive, Healthcare and Public Sector & Utilities.

For more information please visit our website at: www.banda.ie or contact us on +353 1 2057500

About B&AAbout B&A

Marketing Society Research Excellence Awards22 time award winners, including 4 Grand Prix

in 10 years.


Key highlights


● Consumer confidence is showing declines both in Dublin and across the rest of the country.

● This decline in optimism is being driven by declining levels of consumer confidence across all demographics.

The 55+ age group and farmers are significantly less confident about what the future holds, while just the 16-34 age groups and those from outside Ireland show any form of positivity.

● Looking specifically at Q3 consumer confidence levels, there has been a decline across all economic indicators, with positivity towards the value of personal assets, future savings, spending and personal finances all falling back both in and outside Dublin.

● When examining the macro environment the gap in retail sales (excluding motor) volume to value is widening and declining export levels are evident. Albeit employment levels remain positive.

● Given recent developments in the UK and the Brexit deadline of October 31st , Brexit is the most likely cause of the decline in consumer confidence. Thus, until the uncertainty of Brexit is known it’s unlikely we will see any significant improvement in consumer confidence.

An air of caution is evident throughout the country as consumer confidence declines.


Macro context


46,81047,73549,164 48,746

50,60652,174 52,526 53,118

64,646 63,87766,416 66,603 66,542 67,678 68,278

72,46770,400

72,253

75,69478,088

76,26978,200 78,476 78,828

83,580

39,362 38,93941,754 42,383 42,747 43,176

44,76446,406

49,33152,138 52,197 52,202

53,64055,247 55,471

61,191

57,29555,167

61,935

65,818

59,06559,578

63,14061,823

63,554

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

GDP

GNP

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

GDP and GNP continue an upward trend

*GDP and GNP data correct as of August 2019Source: www.CSO.ieQuarterly National Accounts


1,845,600 1,869,900

1,899,300

1,909,800

1,888,200

1,901,600

1,926,900

1,938,900

1,929,500 1,958,000

1,983,000

1,983,000

1,976,500 2,014,900

2,040,500

2,048,100

2,045,100

2,063,000

2,206,800 2,231,000

2,220,500 2,255,000

2,273,200

2,281,300

2,301,900

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

2,100,000

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Total labour force in Ireland

*Source: www.CSO.ie/ Labour Force surveyQ2 2019 data not yet available

Employment levels are positive

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

http://www.cso.ie/


1,909,800 1,938,900

1,983,000 2,048,100

2,231,000 2,281,300

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

2,000,000

2,100,000

2,200,000

2,300,000

2,400,000

Total labour force in Ireland

*Source: www.CSO.ie/ Labour Force survey

Employment levels are positive

2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2019

http://www.cso.ie/


Live register numbers continue to fall

* The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time work e.g. seasonal & casual workers who work up to 3 days per week

Source: www.CSO.ie/Persons on live register

186,300

245,800

351,000

426,000434,700

449,600

439,200

436,000

438,300

435,200

428,800414,300

398,300370,050

355,600

332,801

319,723

286,490

275,093

244,319235,344

205,730196,934

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

Feb '08 Sept '08 Feb '09 Sep '09 Feb '10 Sep '10 Feb '11 Sep '11 Feb '12 Sep '12 Feb '13 Sep '13 Feb '14 Sep '14 Feb '15 Sep '15 Feb '16 Sep '16 Feb '17 Sep '17 Feb '18 Sep '18 Feb '19

Live Register Total 2008-2018


Source: www.CSO.ie/Persons on live register* Live Register Total data

-12%Overall Change

vs. July 2018

-9.9%vs. July 2018

-13.7%vs. July 2018

108,936

The Live Register

14.6 14.7 13.611.5

9.67.3 6.5 5.3 4.6

0

5

10

15

20

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Jul-19

Unemployment in Ireland

Source: www.CSO.ie/Quarterly National Household survey

Rate of unemployment

Current Rate of unemployment(vs. 5.8% in July 2018)

97,460

%

Annual employment and live register levels remain positive

4.6%

Vs July 2018

-1.2%

http://www.cso.ie/

http://www.cso.ie/


€7,767 €7,798

€7,446€7,749

€9,377€9,743

€10,392

€11,736

€13,740€13,183

€10,985

€12,620€13,454

€11,532

€4,439

€4,678

€4,654€5,196

€5,847

€5,800

€6,524€7,515

€6,703

€7,267

€6,981

€7,282

€7,194

€7,305

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan '19 Feb '19 March '19 April '19 May '19 June '19

Exports Imports

www.cso.ie

Imports vs Exports €m (seasonally adjusted)

Long term Short term

Exports have declined, while imports remain steady overall.


100.3 104.4108.4 110.3 111.0

112.0 112.6 114.6 115.7 116.2 117.1

101.2 101.2 103.5 104.4 104.5 106.0 105.0 107.2 108.2 108.2 108.1

€0€10€20€30€40€50€60€70€80€90

€100€110€120€130€140€150€160

2015 2016 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19

Volume Value

www.cso.ie

Retail Sales Index (Excluding Motor)

*Q3 not yet available

Long term Short term

Volume to value gap is gradually expanding

Gap volume to value

+0.9 -3.2 -4.9 -5.9 -6.5 -6 -7.6 -7.4 -7.5 -8 -9


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Q1 -10.0 -11.1 -9.6 -6.2 -3.5 -2.9 -2.0 -2.3 -2.2

Q2 -7.9 -8.6 -4.1 -3.0 -0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.9

Q3 -24.9 -7.1 -6.0 -4.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -1.8

Q4 -7.5 -5.4 -5.0 -1.4 -1.3 1.9 3.1 4.8

General government surplus/deficit is positive

Source: www.CSO.ie/Indicators/default*Qtr 2 2019 results not yet available


Consumer Confidence Findings


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

-51 -53-46

-27-31

-70 2 1

712

7

20 2015

19

14

22

3427 28 26 32 33 33

2632

16

19

12

-39-44

-36

-18-25

-4

6 6 412 14

7

25 2618

12

15

17

3422 25 24

28 3027

1724

2

10

-4

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Feb Apr July Sept Dec Feb Apr July Sep Feb Apr Sept Nov Feb April July Sept Nov Apr Jul Sep Nov Feb Apr Jul Sep Nov Jan May July

Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report

Looking Back vs. Looking Forward

Looking forwardDublin -4Outside Dublin -5

(Net Diff: Positive-Negative)

Govtuncertainty

following General Election

An air of caution is evident throughout the country as consumer confidence declines

• Consumer confidence is showing a sharp decline both in Dublin & across the rest of the country.

Q. 1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year?And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

Brexit vote


+++

NET Diff Apr ‘19 10% 16% 4% 22% 12% -4% 22% 2% -4% 16% 8% 9% 16%

NET Diff Jan ‘19 2% 6% -1% 15% 1% -9% 11% -2% -14% 11% -1% 1% 13%

NET Diff Nov ‘18 24% 28% 20% 38% 21% 13% 31% 19% 16% 28% 22% 22% 37%

NET Diff Sept‘18 17% 22% 13% 26% 18% 7% 27% 11% 3% 17% 17% 16% 27%

NET Diff July ’18 27% 30% 25% 41% 22% 11% 37% 22% 11% 31% 26% 25% 41%

-4

0

-9

9

-4

-19

-2-5

-15

-4 -5 -7

11

Total Male Female 16-34 35-54 55+ ABC1 C2DE F Dublin OutsideDublin

Irish Non Irish

Consumer confidence has declined across all demographics.Base: All Adults 16+

Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

The 55+ age group and farmers are significantly less confident. Just the 16-34s age group & non Irish are in positive territory.


Base: All Adults 16+

Consumer confidence has experienced a country wide decline.

Q.2 And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb 18 May 18 July 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan ’19 May ’19 July ‘19

Gap -15% -59% -68% -49% -58% -52% -32% +3% +15% +18% +26% +22% +28% +30% +27% +17% +24% +2% +10% -4%

22

51

27

Better off

The same

Worse off

July 19%

*Net Diff (GAP) -4%

Dublin: -4%

RoL: -16%

Consumer confidence has

declined across all regions, with similar levels of optimism

both inside & outside Dublin.

Conn/Ulster -

-4%

Munster: +6%

Looking forwardDublin -4Outside Dublin -5


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 May 19 July 19

Gap +20% -25% -53% -43% -41% -31% -18% -1% +14% +15% +26% +25% +26% +26% +24% +24% +24% +20% +20% +10%

18

74

8

Higher

The same

Lower

*Net Diff (GAP) +10%

Outside Dublin: +11%

Dublin: +14%


Overall positivity towards the value of personal assets has fallen back, but remains positive.

Q.6 Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?

July ‘19%

Attitudes towards the value of

personal assets has fallen back both

inside and outside Dublin.


Outside Dublin: -11%

Dublin:-0%


Attitudes towards future savings have declined into negative territory

Q8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months?

11

71

18

More

The same

Lower

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb 18 May 18 July 18 Sept 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 May 19 July 19

Gap -5% -34% -56% -48% -50% -48% -40% -24% -13% -5% -1% = +1 = = -7% +5% -2% = -8%

*Net Diff (GAP) -8%

July ‘19%

Attitudes towards savings have declined

both inside and outside Dublin but

continue to be least positive outside the

capital.


Outside Dublin: -10%

Dublin: 0%


Consumers are even more cautious towards spending.

Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?

9

75

16

More

The same

Less

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb 18 May 18 July 18 Sept 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 May 19 July 19

Gap +5% -29% -63% -47% -52% -45% -37% -19% -13% -4% = +2% +1% +3% +3% -3% +5% -3% -4% -7%

*Net Diff (GAP) -7%

July ‘19%

Those living outside Dublin continuing to

be least positive towards future spending but

Dubliners are also cautious.


Base: All Adults 16+Attitudes towards personal finances have declined

Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

15

72

13

Higher

The same

Lower

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Feb 18 May 18 July 18 Sept 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 May 19 July 19

Gap -15% -59% -68% -49% -58% -52% -32% -22% -6% +3% +8% +10% +15% +10% +9% +14% +9% +8% +2%

*Net Diff (GAP) +2%

July ‘19%

Outside Dublin: +1%

Dublin: +5%

Both Dublin & outside Dublin have

experienced a decline in attitudes towards personal

finances



Personal Finances – Looking Forward YOY

Q.5 Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?

135 7 7 7 8 13 17 18 21 23 20

26 22 22 23 21 2215

52

3035 31 34

41

49

6167 66 67 70 63 66 66 67 67 64

72

34

6457 63 59

5138

2215 13 11 10 11 12 12 10 12 14 13

Long Term 2018 2019

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb May Jul Sept Nov Jan May July

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Higher

The same

Lower

Gap -21 -59 -50 -56 -52 -43 -25 -6 +3 +8 +12 +10 +15 +10 +9 +14 +9 +8 +2

Expect it to be…


Short Term

Balance Of Opinion in Summary – The Year AheadExpectations in regard to asset value, purchases, and savings

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Yearly Averages

Long Term

Asset Value

Purchases

Savings

69

21

31 33

20

-25

-53

-43 -41

-4

-20

1

14 15

26 25

-10 -12

-12

47 5

-29

-63

-47

-52

-5-13

-19-13

-40 2

-23-28

-8-5

-1-5

-34

-56-48

-50

-13

-4

-24

-13

-5-1 0

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

4026 26 24 24 24

20 20

10

1 3 3-3

5

-3 -4-7

1 0 0-7

5-2 0

-8

Feb May July Sept Nov Jan May July

2018 2019


€50.94

€61.29

€83.97

€62.32

€46.86 €46.21 €46.30

€51.76

€58.11€59.92

€62.71€61.09 €59.72

€64.23 €63.82 €64.52€59.74

€68.92

€60.08

2001 2004 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Feb '18 May '18 July '18 Sept '18 Nov '18 Jan '19 May '19 July '19

Perceived disposable income has fallen back on previous levels

Dublin 81.03

Outside Dublin 51.55

ABC1 66.40

C2DE 55.65


Q.10 About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on?

Long Term Short Term

J.9803 | Consumer Confidence Tracker | July 201927Delve deeper

Thank you.

Milltown House Mount Saint AnnesMilltown, Dublin 6 - D06 Y822 +353 1 205 7500 | www.banda.ie

Documents

Consumer Confidence Tracker - Behaviour & Attitudes...2019/08/02 · Consumer Confidence Tracker during July 2019. Survey results are based on a sample of 1,003 adults aged 16+, quota