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CONSUMER MARKETS In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia December 2011 kpmg.ru KPMG IN RUSSIA AND THE CIS in cooperation with

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Page 1: CONSUMER MARKETS › content › dam › kpmg › pdf › 2011 › 12 › ... · insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

CONSUMER MARKETS

In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

December 2011

kpmg.ru

KPMG IN RUSSIA AND THE CIS

in cooperation with

Page 2: CONSUMER MARKETS › content › dam › kpmg › pdf › 2011 › 12 › ... · insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

2 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Page 3: CONSUMER MARKETS › content › dam › kpmg › pdf › 2011 › 12 › ... · insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 3

“KPMG Consumer Markets team prepared this document in cooperation with leading research institutes, Nielsen and Euromonitor. This analysis will provide you with important insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

“The KPMG Consumer Markets team is pleased to present our Food and Beverage market insights. The aim of this document is to give companies our outlook regarding key developments in the food and beverage markets and to highlight the key challenges the market will face from 2012 to 2015.”

Foreword

“Among the markets analysed dairy, beverages and salty snacks will show the highest investment attractiveness as they still have the highest potential for further growth and significant space for further consolidation and product innovations.”

“Looking ahead at the Food and Beverage market we see consolidation, concentration and a reduction in growth rates across major segments. Even a couple years ago, FMCG markets were growing at double digit pace and companies grew organically following general consumer trends. Going forward organic growth may not allow shareholders to achieve their growth ambitions and M&A will rank higher on the agenda.”

George PatarayaPartner

Head of Consumer MarketsKPMG in Russia and the CIS

Daniel StrishewskyDirector

Strategy Consumer Markets KPMG in Russia and the CIS

Alexey MaltsevAssociate Director

Strategy Consumer Markets KPMG in Russia and the CIS

Alexander KhvostovSenior Associate

Strategy Consumer Markets KPMG in Russia and the CIS

Page 4: CONSUMER MARKETS › content › dam › kpmg › pdf › 2011 › 12 › ... · insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

4 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Executive summary 5

Macroeconomic outlook 7

Selected Food and Beverage market insights 8

Dairy 9

Chocolate 12

Beverages 15

Coffee 18

Salty snacks 21

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 5

Majoor connsummerr mmaarkeets in Russsiaa eexxcceeptt foor daairy lagg subbstaaantiaallyy beehiindd tthee EEUU U leeveel in

teermss of peer-cappitaa consuummptttion aand tthuuss hhavve pootentiial fforr fuurttheer r grrowwtth

Coffee

Chocolate

Salty snacks

Dairy

Beverages

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12%Per-

capi

ta c

onsu

mpt

ion

in R

ussi

a vs

EU

[%]

2012-2015 CAGR of market in value terms [%]

0%

Executive summary

Key Russian Food and Beverage markets potential

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis

F&B consumer spending growth in Russia

EU level

Short-term development Long-term development

Key trends Forecast: 2012 Forecast: CAGR 2012–2015

Volume growth, %

Price growth, %

Value terms growth,%

Volume growth, %

Price growth, %

Value terms growth,%

Dairy 6-8% 8-10% 16-18% 4-6% 5-7% 9-13% Convenience Health and wellbeing

Chocolate 5-7% 3-5% 9-11% 3-5% 4-5% 7-11% Convenience Seeking variety

Beverages 8-10% 3-5% 13-15% 8-10% 2-3% 9-12% Search for authenticity Seeking experience

Coffee 3-5% 4-6% 8-10% 2-4% 4-5% 7-10% Quality Convenience Savvy shopping

Salty snacks 6-8% 2-4% 9-11% 5-7% 4-5% 9-12%

On-the-go consumption Seeking new varieties/experience Health & wellbeing

Expected short and mid-term development of the key Russian Food and Beverage markets

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis

Page 6: CONSUMER MARKETS › content › dam › kpmg › pdf › 2011 › 12 › ... · insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

6 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Dairy

The dairy market is one of the largest in the Russian F&B sector in terms of volume. It is expected to continue demonstrating the fastest growth in value terms (approximately 9–13%1), which is mainly driven by dairy prices growing faster than general consumer inflation due to a deficiency in raw milk. Other market growth drivers are increase in consumption and a continued shift towards yogurts and deserts.

Chocolate

The Russian chocolate market is expected to grow by approximately 7–11%1 in value terms. The key growth driver is expected to be overall increase in per capita consumption, which is fueled by new products and varieties (e.g. snackable packaging formats, new tastes and flavours). Further, value growth will be driven by an expected increase in cocoa beans prices which will translate into chocolate price growth.

Beverages

The beverage market is one of the fastest developing markets in Russia. Total volume grew by approximately 12% in 2010 and YTD 20112 and are expected to level at an annual growth of 7% by 2015. Continued innovation in colas, lemonades, ice tea and kvass will further shape the market.

Coffee

The coffee market is expected to demonstrate the slowest growth in terms of both volume (approximately 2–4%1) and value (approximately 7–10%1) as it is almost fully developed and has nearly reached saturation point in Russia.

Salty snacks

The salty snacks market is expected to grow at a rate of 9–12%1 until 2015 and is driven by the highest lag in per-capita consumption (vs. the EU), however, some categories (e.g. fish) are likely to decline due to market saturation.

1 The market forecast relates to 2012-2015 period.2 YTD 2011 Jan-Sep; KPMG analysis.

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 7

12%

7%

9%8%

6%9%

9%

7%6%

4%

%

%

%

%

2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

• Continued growth of disposable income will establish a solid foundation for purchasing power growth over the next 5 years and will move Russia closer towards the level of developed countries.

• The share of spending on food and beverages as a percentage of total expenditure should continue to decrease from 29% (2011) to 26% (2015).

• The expected slow down in consumer price growth from 2012 to 2015 will help boost per-capita consumption across major food and beverage sectors; however consumer price inflation will be higher.

Thee pacce of tthee ecconommiccc reeccovverryy y shhooulld deetermmine cconnnsummeer eexpppeendditturre ggrrowwtth

in RRussiia. Thiis iiss exxpeectteddd too ccloosee tthee ggaap bbetweenn devvelopeedd mmaarkeetss anndd oouttpaaccce ottheer

BBRRICC couuunntrriess.

Per capita consumer expenditure on food, beverages and tobacco [USD ‘000]

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

Nominal disposable income per capita and real disposable income growth [% change vs. PY1]

Consumer prices and inflation rate [% change vs. PY1]

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. Source: Consumer prices: Economist Intelligence Unit, Inflation rate: Ministry of Economic Development of Russian Federation, KPMG analysis.

Macroeconomic outlook

3.2 3.23.5 3.3

3.6

1.4 1.61.9

2.1

2.8

0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8

0

1

2

3

4

2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

Expected CAGR

2011-2015

0.7%

10.7%

11.0%

2%

4%3%

4% 4%

13%11%

12% 13%11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

15

10

5

0

1 Previous year.

15

10

5

0

Consumer price infl ationGeneral infl ation rate

Average EU levelRussiaAverage BRIC level (excl. Russia)

Real personal disposable income (% change p.a.)Nominal personal disposable income (% change p.a.)

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8 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Selected Food and Beverage market insights

Page 9: CONSUMER MARKETS › content › dam › kpmg › pdf › 2011 › 12 › ... · insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 9

Dairy market dynamics in volume terms [mln. t.] and growth rate

Dairy market dynamics in value terms [RUBbn] and growth rate

Deespitee a hiighhh levell of mmmaatuuriityy aaandd ppeer ccapitta connsummppttionn, tthee dddaiiryy mmaarkkkeet ssttill has rooom for fuutuuure deeveeloopmmeennt. GGGroowwtth

iss exxpeccted to coommee frromm sshiiifttingg ccoonnsuummeer prreferrencees towwaardss yooggurrrtss andd ddeeessseertts wwhichh will drivee oovverralll mmarrrkeet prroffitttabbillity.Dairy

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis

• Russia is amongst the top list of dairy consuming nations and still has potential for further per capita consumption development.

Milk and yogurt consumption per capita in different countries, 2009 [kg]

104

66

70

43

11

8

16

3

9

1

112

82

73

52

12

UK

Germany

Russia

Poland

China

Source: Euromonitor International, Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

“The trend of consumers switching to more sophisticated branded products is evident in the yogurts and desserts segment” – expert of Euromonitor International

“Growth will be driven by new product launches in flavoured fromage frais and dairy-based desserts” – manager of major dairy company in Russia

“”

4.14.4 4.6–4.7

5.2–5.6

11%7% 6–8%

4–6%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

205249

289–294

380–420

16%22%

16–18%

9–13%

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

CAGR 2012-2015

CAGR 2012-2015

Dairy market in volume termsDairy market growth in volume terms

Dairy market in value termsDairy market growth in value terms

MilkYogurts

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10 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Market structure by product in volume terms Market structure by product in value terms

Expected market growth in volume terms Expected market growth in value terms

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Milk (Sterilised + Pasteurised) +5-6%

■ Kefir +0-2%

■ Yogurts and desserts +7-9%

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Milk (Sterilised + Pasteurised) +14-16%

■ Kefir +10-12%

■ Yogurts and desserts +19-21%

Trend Description Products Implications

Convenience Under current lifestyle pressures consumers are looking for products which save time and are easy to use

• Drinkable yogurts for on the move consumption

• Ready to eat yogurt-based breakfasts with cereals included

A shift from traditional dairy products towards the yogurt-dessert group, in particular drinkable yogurts

Health and Well-being

As consumers become more health conscious they are improving their diet, which leads to increased consumption of natural & organic products

• Cereal based drinkable/ spoonable yogurts

• Dairy products that aid digestion

• Probiotics and enriched products

A shift towards the premium dairy products price category

“Russian consumers have become more demanding in terms of product flavours and added value. Responding to this trend, producers are expected to extend their product portfolios with more exotic flavours” – leading market research company in Russia

“”

3.4 m. tones 4.0 –4.2 m. tones RUB150 bn. RUB260-280 bn.

Yogurts and desserts

Kefi r

Milk (Sterilised + Pasteurised)

• Growth in the yogurts and desserts segments is changing the landscape of the dairy market. By 2015 these segments should represent over 30% of the total dairy market.

Convenience and Health & Well-Being trends are driving the innovation pipeline – drinkable and bio yogurts are expected to lead market growth.

65% 66%

22% 19%

13% 15%

2011F 2015F

52% 51%

20% 17%

28% 33%

2011F 2015F

Source: KPMG analysis.

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 11

4%

13%

9%

6%7%

9%

8%

6%

9%

7%

6%

4%

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

• Raw milk prices remain volatile and continue to drive inflation dynamics above the general consumer inflation trend

Expected dairy product price growth in Russia vs. consumer price inflation and general inflation [% change vs. PY]

Source: Consumer prices: Economist Intelligence Unit, Inflation rate: Ministry of Economic Development of Russian Federation, KPMG analysis.

The dairy market is highly dependent on sourcing of domestic raw milk. Milk production in Russia is currently stagnating due further reduction in dairy cattle and the continued use of outdated technology. This has generated a 20% deficit in domestic raw milk. Imported raw milk (>20%) and dry milk (~70%) is mainly from Belarus.

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Dairy product price growth

Consumer price infl ation

General infl ation rate

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12 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Chocolate

The deeveelopmment of nonn-cchhoccolaatee snnaackk aalteernnnativvees (bbisscuiits, wwaferss, canndiiees) is ppreeveeenttinng chhoccoolaatee

perr-capiita coonsummptioon frromm ggrowwinnngg toowwarrddds tthe EEU levvel. MModerrate ggroowwthh is exxpeeecttedd tto cooommee frfromm tthe cchhocolate bbarr aandd taablet seegmmeenntsss aat thhe exxppensse of the chhooccolaate booxeees seegmmeennnt.

Chocolate market dynamics in volume terms [mln. t.] and growth rate

Chocolate market dynamics in value terms [RUBbn] and growth rate

460485 510–520

570–590

1%

5% 5–7%3–5%

0100200300400500600700

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

143154 168–171

200–230

5%

8% 9–11% 7–11%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

CAGR 2012-2015

CAGR 2012-2015

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis

• The market is expected to grow (in volume) by 5-7%1 which should result from further per-capita consumption growth.

Chocolate consumption per capita in different countries, 2011 [kg]

Source: Euromonitor International, Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

10.8

9.8

9.3

4.0

1.3

Switzerland

Norway

Germany

Russia

Poland

Long-term market increase will come from new product developments. Nevertheless, despite the high disparity versus developed markets in (terms of per-capita consumption) market growth might be limited by the development of non-chocolate snack alternatives.

1 The market forecast relates to 2012-2015 period.

Chocolate market in volume termsChocolate market growth in volume terms

Chocolate market in value termsChocolate market growth in value terms

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 13

• Snacking segments (chocolate bars and tablets) are expected to remain the most popular product categories in Russia.

Market structure by product in volume terms Market structure by product in value terms

Expected market growth in volume terms Expected market growth in value terms

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Other +0-1%

■ Pralines +4-5%

■ Tablets +7-8%

■ Chocolate bars +8-9%

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Other +1-5%

■ Pralines +5-9%

■ Tablets +10-14%

■ Chocolate bars +10-14%

~485,000 tones ~570’000-590‘000 tones RUB155 bn RUB200–230 bn

Chocolate bars

Tablets

Pralines

Other41% 36%

21% 21%

23% 26%

15% 18%

2011F 2015F

26% 21%

28% 26%

29% 33%

17% 20%

2011F 2015F

Convenience and Seeking Variety trends are driving product innovations – pocket formats, premium chocolate products and traditional bars with new fillings are shifting market landscape.

Source: Euromonitor International, Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

Trend Description Products Implications

Convenience Under current lifestyle pressures consumers are looking for products which save time and are easy to use

Ready to eat portioned chocolate bars /candies/ nuts and dry fruits covered with chocolate

Shift from traditional 100 gram chocolate confectionery packaging towards snackable formats: tablet pocket formats, 3 pieces in a pack, 30 grams bags

Seeking variety Consumers are looking for new tastes and flavours

• Seasonal chocolates

• Traditional chocolate bars of different chocolate types (dark, milk, white) and with new fillings

Increasing consumption of chocolate confectionery

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14 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

• Cocoa bean prices are expected to remain volatile in 2011–2012. This is expected to impact on consumer prices of Russian confectionary.

In 2010/2011 increased demand for cocoa-beans from emerging chocolate markets such as Turkey, China and India pushed up global prices for cocoa-beans, resulting in increased global consumer prices for chocolate confectionery.

3%

5% 4% 4%

7%

9%8%

6%

9%

7%

6%

4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

Expected chocolate product price growth in Russia vs. consumer price inflation and general inflation [% change vs. PY]

Source: Consumer prices: Economist Intelligence Unit, Inflation rate: Ministry of Economic Development of Russian Federation, KPMG analysis.

10

8

6

4

2

0

Chocolate product price growthConsumer price infl ationGeneral infl ation rate

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 15

4.8 5.35.7–5.9

7.0–7.2

13% 12%8-10% 8-10%

012345678

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

164190

213–218

280–300

12% 15% 13–15% 9-12%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

BeveragesCCarrbonnated SSoooft t DDriinkss (CCSSSSDDss),,

KKvass aandd IIcce TeTeaass wwwilll ddrrrivvee thhee beeverragee mmmaarkkeet oovveer thhhee ccomminng yyearrss thhroouuggghh fflaavvooor raandd packkagiinggg innnnoovvaattioonnss...

“2011 brought significant changes to the Russian beverage market – increase in disposable income, decrease in unemployment and stabilisation of the currency brought about the effect of ‘delayed demand’ and people ready to spend money on soft drinks again” – beverage market expert, Euromonitor International

“”

Cold beverage market dynamics in volume terms [bn. l.] and growth rate

Cold beverage market dynamics in value terms [RUBbn] and growth rate

CAGR 2012-2015

CAGR 2012-2015

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis

• The total volume of the market is expected to increase by 12% in 2011 and approximately 8-10% till 2015.

Cold beverage consumption per capita in different countries, 2011 [litres]

Source: Euromonitor International, Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

33

25

17

24

22

36

29

28

21

16

69

55

45

44

37

Poland

UK

The Netherlands

Russia

Brazil

This is partially driven by an increase in per-capita consumption in existing categories and organic growth of recently launched categories – kvass, juice drinks and ice tea.

Cold beverage market in value termsCold beverage market growth in value terms

Cold beverage market in volume termsCold beverage market growth in volume terms

Mineral and pure water consumptionJuice consumption

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16 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Market structure by product in volume terms Market structure by product in value terms

Expected market growth in volume terms Expected market growth in value terms

Source: KPMG analysis.

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Juice +3-4%

■ Carbonated soft drinks +10-11%

■ Kvass +11-12%

■ Ice Tea +8-9%

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Juice +8-9%

■ Carbonated soft drinks +12-14%

■ Kvass +17-19%

■ Ice Tea +9-10%

5.3 m. liters 7.0-7.2 m. liters RUB 189.6 bn. RUB 280-300 bn.

• The market landscape is expected to change over the coming years as lemonade, kvass and mineral water categories are expected to outperform the juice segment.

41% 34%

44% 49%

9% 11%6% 6%

2011F 2015F

47% 43%

37% 40%

7% 9%8% 8%

2011F 2015F

Ice TeaKvass

Carbonated soft drinks

Juice

A return to traditional Russian recipes such as kvass and mors and “Seeking Variety” in existing categories is expected to support further growth in the beverage market.

Trend Description Products Implications

Search of authenticity Authenticity is a distinctive trend in Russia: a strong sense of national pride, a distrust of the unknown, and a desire to maintain traditions motivate consumers to return to Russian traditional drinks

• Kvass and Mors

• Soviet lemonades

• Juices being advertised with emphasis on local origin

Shift from CSD and juice towards Russian traditional drinks

Seeking for experience This trend is initiated largely by the affluent and the young in big cities, where novelty and new experiences appeal.

• Juice-containing drinks

• Flavoured water and lemonades

Category value growth

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 17

(0,4%)

4%4%

3%

7%

9%

8%

6%

9%

7%

6%

4%

(2%)

0

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

Expected beverage price growth in Russia vs. consumer price and general inflation [% change vs. PY]

Source: Consumer prices: Economist Intelligence Unit, Inflation rate: Ministry of Economic Development of Russian Federation, KPMG analysis.

The downward movement in pricing during 2010 was primarily the result of promotional activities by beverage producers, including frequent launch of juices and CSD promotional packs. In the future, we expect beverage prices to demonstrate moderate growth.

• Consumer price growth in the beverage market in 2011 is expected to be in line with consumer inflation.

10

8

6

4

2

0

(-2)

Beverage price growth

Consumer price infl ation

General infl ation rate

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18 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

66 71 77–79

90–110

5%

9% 8–10% 7–10%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2015

8083

85–87

92–97

0%5%

3–5% 2–4%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2010 2011 2012 2015

Coffee

Furrthher deveelopmment oof tthe cooffeee mmaarkkeet iss llimmittedd aas iit is uunlikeely thaat RRRussiaanss, cconnsiideereeddd aa teeaa

ddrinkking natioon, wiill cchhanngee thheiiir cconnssummppptiionn patteernns. Modderate growtthh inn cooffeee coonsuummpptioonn

wwill mmost llikeelly ccomme frooomm ppreemmiuuumm prroppoosiitioonns.

Coffee market dynamics in volume terms [‘000 tones] and growth rate

Coffee market dynamics in value terms [RUBbn] and growth rate

CAGR 2012-2015

CAGR 2012-2015

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis

• Despite low per capita consumption in Russia compared to EU, the coffee market growth in Russia is limited by a strong tradition of tea consumption.

Coffee per capita consumption [kg]

Source: Euromonitor International, Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

Coffee penetration in Russia has reached almost 90% of the market; however, due to a strong tradition of tea drinking the overall proportion of coffee consumption is low. In 2010 Russia was ranked 31st in a league table of coffee drinking nations.

9.7

7.9

3.1

2.8

1.5

0.8

Finland

Sweden

Poland

USA

United kingdom

Russia

Coffee and tea consumption per capita [cups per day]

1.79 1.89 2.02

3.65 3.65 3.65

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2010 2011F-2012F

In 2012 coffee consumption frequency is expected to moderately increase while the tea consumption frequency is expected to remain at the same level. The increase in the number of cups of coffee consumed per day is expected to be driven by promotions, increased coffee machine availability and other innovations.

Coffee market in value termsCoffee market growth in value terms

Coffee market in volume termsCoffee market growth in volume terms

CoffeeTea

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 19

• Consumer focus on Quality, Convenience and Savvy Shopping will be the main drivers of innovation and development; distribution and retail should drive mix changes towards premium product propositions.

Market structure by product in value terms

RUB 71 bn. RUB 90–110 bn.

23% 19%

24% 22%

31% 35%

21% 24%

2011F 2015F

R&B, beans

Freeze dried

Spray dried

Mixes

Expected market growth in value terms

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Mixes +3-4%

■ Spray dried +5-8%

■ Freeze dried +11-13%

■ R&B, beans +11-13%

Source: Euromonitor International, Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

“Fresh coffee beans are expected to register the best performance within the coffee market due to a shift in preference from the overdeveloped instant coffee category towards premium natural products” – Marketing manager of leading coffee manufacturer

“”

Quality, Convenience and Savvy shopping trends are driving the innovation pipeline on Russian coffee market.

Trend Description Products Implications

Quality Consumers are willing to pay more for better taste, bigger variety, more natural products and brand names that can guarantee quality

• Fresh coffee (R&G, beans)

• Coffee machines with portioned coffee capsules

Shift towards high quality premium products driving the category value growth up

Convenience Under current lifestyle pressures consumers are looking for products which save time and are easy to use

• Ready to drink (3in1, cappuccino mix in bags and RTD coffee)

Slightly increased share of cheap coffee categories, driving down market value

Savvy shopping Consumers are becoming more price conscious: they are comparing prices, seeking discounts, promotions and reward programs

• Economy packs (refills and doybags)

• Retail offers: discounts and trade offers

• Promotions: gifts with purchase, bundling with other categories

Margin pressure on coffee producers

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20 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

• Coffee price growth is expected to be slower than general inflation over the coming years due to excessive availability of coffee beans.

Expected coffee price growth in Russia VS consumer price inflation and general inflation [% change vs. PY]

Source: Consumer prices: Economist Intelligence Unit, Inflation rate: Ministry of Economic Development of Russian Federation, KPMG analysis.

“In 2011 the total volume growth in coffee was insignificant compared to other non-alcoholic drinks. The main reason for the muted increase is the relative coffee market saturation in Russia. The effect of the crisis did not make people stop drinking coffee, unlike soft drinks...” – Euromonitor analyst

“”

Coffee supply/demand balance in 2010-2012F [millions of standard 60-kg bags] Coffee beans price dynamics [USD cents/kg]

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Economist Intelligence Unit, KPMG analysis.

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Economist Intelligence Unit, KPMG analysis.

A surplus of coffee beans is opening opportunities for category development – the global supply of coffee beans is expected to increase by 10% due to the recovery of Brazilian production, and increased coffee production in other major exporting countries.

7.7 7.4 8.0 8.2 9.07.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12F 2012/13F

5%

4%

5% 4%

7%

9%8%

6%

9%

7%

6%

4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

317

432

607

507

164 170244

195

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2009 2010 2011F 2012F

10

8

6

4

2

0

Coffee price growth

Consumer price infl ation

General infl ation rate

Arabica

Robusta

World supplyWorld demand

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 21

Salty snacks market dynamics in volume terms [‘000 tones] and growth rate

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

Core salty snacks (potato chips + extruded/rice chips) consumption per capita in different countries, 2011 [kg]

Source: Nielsen, KPMG analysis.

Salty snacksWWesteern trrendds ssshoouldd cconnttinnuee ttooo ddriivee

mmaarkeet deemand. NNuutts aandd ppottaatoo cchiippss aarre exxpected to fuurtherr innncreeasee innn mmaarkkeet mmixx at thhe expeensee of ttradditioonal Ruuusssiiann ssaaaltty

snaccks –– cririspp brreaaddds anndd fiissh.

“The crisis coincided with saturation in some categories of salty snacks, such as dried sea-foods, croutons and sunflower seeds” – Marketing manager, leading Russian salty snacks producer

“”

135147 156–159

180–200

0%

9%6–8% 5–7%

0

40

80

120

160

200

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

Salty snacks market dynamics in value terms [RUBbn] and growth rate

5462

67–69

90–110

1%

15%

9–11% 9–12%

0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2011F 2012F 2015F

CAGR 2012-2015

CAGR 2012-2015

• Salty snacks consumption per-capita in Russia is still behind the level in the EU which shows opportunity for growth given expected macroeconomic upturn.

0.5

1.6

1.2

2.1

3.4

4.6

Russia

Poland

Greece

Spain

Netherlands

UK

Salty snacks market in value termsSalty snacks market growth in value terms

Salty snacks market in volume termsSalty snacks market growth in volume terms

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22 | In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia

Market structure by product in volume terms Market structure by product in value terms

Expected market growth in volume terms Expected market growth in value terms

Source: KPMG analysis.

Trend Description Products Implications

On-the-go consumption Under current lifestyle pressures consumers are looking for products which save time and are easy to use

• Package downsizing (e.g. salty biscuits for on-the-go consumption)

Further market share gain of packed snacks versus unpacked (e.g. nuts, sunflower seeds)

Seeking variety/ experiences This trend is driven largely by the affluent and the young in big cities, where novelty and new experiences appeal

• New chips and crisp bread flavours

• New packaging solutions

Category value growth due to a primary shift towards premium products

Health & Well-being As consumers become more health conscious they are increasing taking positive steps regarding diet, such as looking for natural & organic products

• Healthier snacks with lower fat and salt content

Increased share of nut consumption

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Potato chips +8–11%

■ Nuts +9–12%

■ Fish -7% – -4%

■ Extruded/ rice chips +2–5%

■ Crisp breads +2–5%

Expected CAGR (%) 2011F-2015F

■ Potato chips +13–19%

■ Nuts +16–22%

■ Fish -1% – +4%

■ Extruded/ rice chips +10–15%

■ Crisp breads +7–12%

“Healthy snacks such as nuts are set to see the strongest current value growth in 2011. This is explained by the health and well-being trend and the categories’ recovery after sales suffered in 2009...” – Business Intelligence specialist of the snack company

“”

146,900 tones 180,000-200,000 tones RUB 62.4 bn. RUB 90-110 bn.

• Western trends will continue to drive market demand – the potato chips and nuts segments will continue to dominate the salty snacks market at the expense of traditional Russian salty snacks such as crisp breads and fish.

Potato chips

Fish

Nuts

Crisp breadsExtruded/ rice chips

Consumption on-the-go, “Seeking Variety” and “Health & Well-Being” will drive market dynamics and structure. New flavors and packaging innovations will drive per-capita consumption towards EU level.

47% 53%

13%14%

10%6%5% 4%

25% 22%

2011F 2015F

44% 50%

13%16%

23%16%

4% 4%16% 14%

2011F 2015F

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In focus: Food and Beverage markets in Russia | 23

Expected salty snacks price growth in Russia vs. consumer price and general inflation [% change vs. PY]

Source: Consumer prices: Economist Intelligence Unit, Inflation rate: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, KPMG analysis.

• Consumer prices are expected to be in line with the overall level of inflation as sourcing issues such as the potato deficit in 2010 are overcome.

Potato producer price dynamics in Russia [RUB/kg]

Source: Rosstat, KPMG analysis.

The potato deficit in 2010, which caused significant cost price pressure on the Russian salty snacks market, has now been rectified and prices have already started to decrease. Thus, prices for salty snacks are forecasted to be in line with the overall level of inflation.

8.2

9.88.7

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Salty snacks price growthConsumer price infl ationGeneral infl ation rate

Page 24: CONSUMER MARKETS › content › dam › kpmg › pdf › 2011 › 12 › ... · insights into the key food and beverage markets based on most recent industry data and opinion.”

The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

© 2011 ZAO KPMG, a company incorporated under the Laws of the Russian Federation, a subsidiary of KPMG Europe LLP, and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. Printed in Russia.

Contact us

George PatarayaHead of Consumer Markets PartnerT: + 7 (495) 937 4477 (ext. 14446)E: [email protected]

Daniel StrishewskyStrategy GroupConsumer Markets DirectorT: + 7 (495) 937 4477 (ext. 14043)E: [email protected]

Alexey MaltsevStrategy GroupConsumer Markets Associate DirectorT: + 7 (495) 937 4477 (ext. 14933)E: [email protected]

Alexander KhvostovStrategy GroupConsumer Markets Senior AssociateT: + 7 (495) 937 4477 (ext. 14649)E: [email protected]

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