Context: technological disruptions in energy systems S. Keshav

Lecture 1Context: technological disruptions in energy systems

S. Keshav

School of Computer ScienceUniversity of Waterloo

Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

All images from Wikipedia unless otherwise specified

Topics

Context

Technology disruptors◦ Solar◦ Storage◦ BlockchainsEconomic impact

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6http://blueskiesmeteorology.com

7http://www.antinuclear.net

What can we do?

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Politics

• Citizen awareness

Policies

• Regulation• Pricing

Economics

• Viability•Markets• Individual rationality

Energy systems

•Generation• Transmission• Distribution• Consumption

Technology

• Energy tech• Solar•Wind

• Info tech• Sensing• Communication• Computation• Control• Blockchain

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Politics


Policies


Economics


Energy systems


Technology



• Citizens• Professionals• Educators

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Politics


Policies


Economics


Energy systems


Technology



• Citizens• Professionals• Educators

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Politics


Policies


Economics


Energy systems


Technology

• Energy tech• Solar• Storage•Wind


Technology disruptionsSolar energy

Storage

Digitalization◦ Sensing◦ Communication◦ Computation◦ Control

Blockchain: the engine of trust

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Solar energy: an introduction

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25 April 1954 Bell Laboratories

Chapin, Fuller and Pearson.

18http://free-energy-ltd.com/freeenergy-solar-power.html

Topaz solar farm, California 25.6 km2 9 million panels

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50.0

100.0

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200.0

250.0

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400.0

450.0

500.0

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Cell phone penetration (ITU) 1990=1 Cumulative Solar (EPIA) 2000=1

Solar PV is growing as fast as cell phones

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http://stats.areppim.com/stats/stats_mobile.htmhttp://www.epia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/EPIA_Global_Market_Outlook_for_Photovoltaics_2014-2018_-_Medium_Res.pdf

(c) S. Keshav [email protected] http://iss4e.ca

Positive feedback loop

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The more you ship

The cheaper it gets

3 characteristics of solar generation1. Sunlight is free! Near‐zero OPEX, all cost is CAPEX

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2. 20‐25 year nearly maintenance‐free lifetime

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2. 20‐25 year nearly maintenance‐free lifetime

3. Amount of generation over lifetime depends on geography

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Levelized Cost of Energy


Effective cost per kWh (units of energy)


$/kWp(Dollars per 1000 watts)

CAPEX$1000


$/kWhAverage cost per unit of energy over 20y lifetime

$/kWpCAPEX

*Assumes a fixed equipment lifetime

$1000


$/kWhAverage cost (over lifetime)

$/kWpCAPEX

*Assumes a fixed equipment lifetime

$1000

1000 KWh producedover lifetime

$1/KWh

Impact of CAPEX reduction

$/kWhAverage cost

$/kWp$1000

1000 KWh producedover lifetime

$1/KWh

$800

$0.8/KWh

CAPEX

Swanson’s Law

Impact of geography

$/kWhkWh/kWp.year

Incoming solar radiationAverage cost

$/kWpInitial cost

Southwest US

Saudi Arabia

North Germany

France

$1000

$1/KWh

$0.5/KWh

Compare to conventional$/kWh

kWh/kWp.yearInsolationAverage cost

$/kWpInitial cost

Cost of conventional grid energy$0.1/KWh

Southwest US

Saudi Arabia

North Germany

France

CAPEX trend$/kWh


$/kWpInitial cost

Cost of conventional grid energy

$200

$0.2kWh

$50

$0.05/kWh

$0.1/kWh Southwest US

Saudi Arabia

North Germany

France

Swanson’s Law

Conventional energy trend$/kWh


$/kWpInitial cost

Cost of conventional grid energy Southwest US

Saudi Arabia

North Germany

France

$0.1/kWh

Solar wins! Everywhere!

The solar revolution …

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… will be led by the accountants

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Unfortunately…

Problem 1: No sun at night…

Barnhart et al, Proc. Energy and Environment, 6:2804, 2013

Problem 2: Variability

Problem 3: Excess generation

488 May 2016, Germany (from Agora Energiewende)

Problem 4: Land use

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One solution: storage

Storage decouples supply and demand

Traditional storage

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Storage: old and new

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Nature Climate Change: 2014Tesla/Panasonic and GM/LG Chem battery costs are already (in 2016) down to the lowest projections for 2020!


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The more you ship

The cheaper it gets

Why?

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Nissan Leaf chassis

Tesla gigafactory

Source: EvSales.blogspot.com

Annual EV sales

*Includes Battery as well as Hybrid Electric Vehicles


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The more you ship

The cheaper it gets

But something is missing…

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Sensing and control

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One example…

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Generation Load

Conventional grid

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Generation Load

Future grid

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Generation Load

Future grid

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Generation Load

Need to forecast, monitor and control…

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Generation Load

Digitalization

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Pervasive sensing

Pervasive communication

Pervasive computation and control

Source: The Economist

Digitalization allows pervasive communication, sensing, computation, control

Source: European Technology Platform Vision Document

Blockchains: an introduction

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Would you buy an umbrella from me?

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How about 1KWh?

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What is a blockchain?A globally visible ledger that is owned by no one but can be trusted by everyone

How to buy a hot dog


Go to the bank


Go to the bank

Get $5◦ Bank reduces your account balance by $5


Go to the bank


Pay $5 to vendor and get a hot dog


Go to the bank



Vendor deposits $5◦ Bank increases vendor’s account balance by $5


Go to the bank



Vendor deposits $5◦ Bank increases vendor’s account balance by $5

It’s all about manipulating a ledger!◦ No need for bank notes

Buying with a ledger

Transfer $5 to vendor

Transfer hotdog to buyer

But…

What if the ledger is corrupted?

CS to the rescue!

Distribute the ledger◦ A copy of the ledger is stored at many servers

CS to the rescue!

Distributed

Transparent◦ Everyone can easily validate transactions◦ Though private transactions possible

CS to the rescue!

Distributed

Transparent

Immutable◦ Once in the ledger, information cannot be changed

CS to the rescue!

Distributed

Transparent

Immutable

Secure◦ Non‐repudiable◦ Allows a certain fraction of servers to be hacked/become untrusted

No need for a trusted entity!

Result

A globally visible ledger that is owned by no one but can be trusted by everyone

ConsequencesAllows trading by mutually untrusting parties

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Can we use it to trade umbrellas?

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Can we use it to trade umbrellas?

Energy?

Rides in an autonomous solar‐powered EV?

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Politics


Policies


Economics


Energy systems


Technology



$30 Trillioneconomic activity!

*displaced over 20 years and very approximate numbers

Fuel cost of transportation: $3.5 Trillion/year99

1.05 Trillion/yr 30% solar-powered transportation

ElectricUtility AnnualRevenues:

1 Trillion/year

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0.5 Trillion/yr Utilities 50% solar/wind supply

Source: The Economist

IoT spending = 10% of revenue= 0.1 Trillion/year

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0.5 Trillion/yr

0.1 Trillion/yr IoT spending

Utilities 50% solar/wind supply

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0.5 Trillion/yr Utilities 50% solar/wind supply

0.25 Trillion/yr

$1.65 Trillion/year of economic disruption

0.1 Trillion/yr IoT spend

$ 33 Trillioneconomic activity!

*displaced over 20 years and very approximate numbers

I’m lying…

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Well, perhaps not

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Documents

Context: technological disruptions in energy systems S. Keshav