CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER-AIR OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES TO THE ACCURACY OF METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS Bataze James and Khalid Muwembe

CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER-AIR CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER-AIR OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND

REMOTE SENSING REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES TO THE TECHNOLOGIES TO THE

ACCURACY OF METEOROLOGICAL ACCURACY OF METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTSFORECASTS

Bataze James and Khalid Bataze James and Khalid MuwembeMuwembe

Department of Meteorology Department of Meteorology P. o . Box 7025, P. o . Box 7025,

Kampala - UgandaKampala - UgandaEmail: [email protected]: [email protected]

User

Introduction:Introduction: Observations are the bedrock of weather forecasting as

these records help to keep track of the weather changes.

For centuries people have made observations and forecast the weather using observed patterns of events on both land and sea surfaces plus signs in the atmosphere

This ancient and primitive methods of forecasting weather not only misled the forecasters of those days but also produced inaccurate forecasts, as none of the weather conditions from the upper levels of the atmosphere was included in making the forecasts, apart from only observing the signs in the atmosphere from the ground

Introduction Introduction CONT…CONT…

Until the middle of the 17th Century, very little was known about the physical characteristics of the atmosphere above the surface. People knew that it got colder with height but not until the invention of the barometer and thermometer was it possible to make any measurements.

The atmospheric disturbances are key determinant to an accurate forecast, hence a good knowledge of the weather conditions in the upper levels of the atmosphere greatly affect what happens at the surface of the Earth.


The quality of meteorological forecasts The quality of meteorological forecasts issued out have been improving since the issued out have been improving since the beginning of the upper air observing beginning of the upper air observing systems using pilot balloons with systems using pilot balloons with radiosondes attached, aircrafts, wind radiosondes attached, aircrafts, wind profilers and remote sensing technologies of profilers and remote sensing technologies of satellites and radar.. satellites and radar..

Also the prediction potential of weather Also the prediction potential of weather forecasters was enhanced by the inception forecasters was enhanced by the inception of remote sensing technologies by use of of remote sensing technologies by use of meteorological satellites and radarsmeteorological satellites and radars


From the observing system experiments carried From the observing system experiments carried out at European Centre for Medium Range out at European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to assess the relative Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to assess the relative contribution from various terrestrial observing contribution from various terrestrial observing systems to the global Numerical Weather systems to the global Numerical Weather Prediction,Prediction,

It was found out that radiosondes, aircraft It was found out that radiosondes, aircraft observations, wind profilers, satellites and radars observations, wind profilers, satellites and radars provide vital information used in the making of an provide vital information used in the making of an accurate meteorological forecastaccurate meteorological forecast( Jean-( Jean-Noelthepaut and Graeme Kelly 2007Noelthepaut and Graeme Kelly 2007, ) ., ) .


According to research carried out so far upper According to research carried out so far upper air observing system and remote sensing air observing system and remote sensing technology have been found to be the most technology have been found to be the most effective observing systems in the safeguarding effective observing systems in the safeguarding of life and property through accurate forecasting of life and property through accurate forecasting and prediction) and prediction) www.eohandbook.comwww.eohandbook.com).).

It enables the detection, tracking, monitoring It enables the detection, tracking, monitoring and giving warnings of severe weather and giving warnings of severe weather phenomena such as local storms, tornadoes, phenomena such as local storms, tornadoes, tropical cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, volcanic tropical cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and many others that eruptions, tsunamis and many others that destroy life and property.( destroy life and property.( EO Handbook of EO Handbook of observationsobservations

Problem statementProblem statement

Of recent there has been debate among Of recent there has been debate among meteorologists and other climate scientists meteorologists and other climate scientists about the contribution of upper air about the contribution of upper air observing systems and remote sensing observing systems and remote sensing technologies in the weather forecasting.technologies in the weather forecasting.

Objectives of the studyObjectives of the study

The main objective of this study was to The main objective of this study was to investigate the contribution of upper air investigate the contribution of upper air observing systems and remote sensing observing systems and remote sensing technologies in the preparation of an technologies in the preparation of an accurate meteorological forecastaccurate meteorological forecast..

Study Area:Study Area:

The study area for this research is the The study area for this research is the evolution of observing systems and evolution of observing systems and weather forecasting, that have been used weather forecasting, that have been used for many centuries to forecast weather.for many centuries to forecast weather.

Right from ancient times people have Right from ancient times people have been observing and trying to forecast been observing and trying to forecast weather informally and formally, and in weather informally and formally, and in 650 BC, the Babylonians predicted the 650 BC, the Babylonians predicted the weather from cloud patterns as well as weather from cloud patterns as well as astrology. astrology.

Study Area Study Area contd….contd…. In about 340 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns In about 340 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns

in meteorologica, and later Theophrastus compiled a in meteorologica, and later Theophrastus compiled a book on weather forecasting called the book of signs.book on weather forecasting called the book of signs.

At around 300BC the Chinese and Indian astronomers At around 300BC the Chinese and Indian astronomers

developed weather prediction methods.developed weather prediction methods. Later in 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya’s Nabatean Later in 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya’s Nabatean

Agriculture discussed the weather forecasting of Agriculture discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the lunar phases; and weather forecasts based on of the lunar phases; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds. the movement of winds.

Study Area Study Area contd….contd….

Ancient weather forecasting methods usually Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, relied on observed patterns of events, termed as pattern recognition, for example it termed as pattern recognition, for example it might be observed that if the sunset was might be observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often particularly red, the following day often brought fair weatherbrought fair weather

In Europe upper air observation began as In Europe upper air observation began as early as 1749 with the use of a kite, the kites early as 1749 with the use of a kite, the kites carried aloft meteorological instruments or carried aloft meteorological instruments or “meteorographs “ that recorded pressure, “meteorographs “ that recorded pressure, temperature, and relative humidity data on temperature, and relative humidity data on a clock driven chart recorder. a clock driven chart recorder.


And in 1780`s with the invention of hot air balloon And in 1780`s with the invention of hot air balloon in France, it enabled scientists to ascend aloft in France, it enabled scientists to ascend aloft taking with them more weather instruments to taking with them more weather instruments to investigate the structure and chemistry of upper investigate the structure and chemistry of upper atmosphere.atmosphere.

How ever the use of kites and hot air balloons had How ever the use of kites and hot air balloons had several disadvantages such as the average several disadvantages such as the average altitude was low, data could not be readily altitude was low, data could not be readily available for weather forecasting, observations available for weather forecasting, observations could only be taken in good weather, and there could only be taken in good weather, and there was danger of the kite breaking away and was danger of the kite breaking away and endangering lives and property endangering lives and property


In 1920`s saw the advent of aircrafts being In 1920`s saw the advent of aircrafts being used for upper air observations and used for upper air observations and carrying of meteographs carrying of meteographs

The inability of the kites, balloons and The inability of the kites, balloons and aircrafts to operate in all weather and aircrafts to operate in all weather and provide data in real time helped foster the provide data in real time helped foster the development for the radio transmission of development for the radio transmission of upper air data. upper air data.

In the early 1930`s the first unmanned In the early 1930`s the first unmanned balloons carrying radio mateorographs or balloons carrying radio mateorographs or radiosondes started being flown in the radiosondes started being flown in the stratosphere to carry out observations of stratosphere to carry out observations of upper air atmosphere. upper air atmosphere.

Study Area Study Area contd….contd…. With more advances in upper-air observing With more advances in upper-air observing

technology saw the development of remote- technology saw the development of remote- sensing observing systems such as satellites, sensing observing systems such as satellites, radars, wind profilers plus the placement of radars, wind profilers plus the placement of temperature and water vapour sensors on temperature and water vapour sensors on commercial aircraft .commercial aircraft .

In the late 1950`s saw the launching of the of the In the late 1950`s saw the launching of the of the first satellite, but the first satellite completely first satellite, but the first satellite completely dedicated to satellite meteorology called TIROS dedicated to satellite meteorology called TIROS ( Television and Infrared Observational Satellite) ( Television and Infrared Observational Satellite) was launched on 1st April 1960, and this brought was launched on 1st April 1960, and this brought a new chapter in upper-air observations because a new chapter in upper-air observations because of their almost global coverage. .of their almost global coverage. .


Satellites also provide data on cloud Satellites also provide data on cloud development, information on temperatures at the development, information on temperatures at the surface and cloud tops, surface and cloud tops,

Currently satellite systems monitor the evolution Currently satellite systems monitor the evolution and impact of El Nino episodes, natural droughts, and impact of El Nino episodes, natural droughts, vegetations cycles and mappings, the ozone hole, vegetations cycles and mappings, the ozone hole, solar fluctuations, changes in mountain snow solar fluctuations, changes in mountain snow cover, sea ice sheets, sea surface temperatures, cover, sea ice sheets, sea surface temperatures, floods, forest fires, deforestations, coastal zones, floods, forest fires, deforestations, coastal zones, urban development, volcanic eruptions, plate urban development, volcanic eruptions, plate motions and more(observation of climate by motions and more(observation of climate by earth orbiting satellites –(earth orbiting satellites –(CEOS EO Handbook on CEOS EO Handbook on Observations.Observations. www.eohandbook.comwww.eohandbook.com). ).


A good example of how satellites can help A good example of how satellites can help to monitor volcanic eruptions was in April to monitor volcanic eruptions was in April 2010 when it was possible to track the 2010 when it was possible to track the movement of ash clouds from the movement of ash clouds from the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull, and Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull, and meteorological offices were able to give meteorological offices were able to give accurate warnings and forecasts to the accurate warnings and forecasts to the aviation industry. aviation industry.

Data source:Data source:

The source of data for this research has The source of data for this research has been achieves of meteorological been achieves of meteorological information, papers written by other information, papers written by other researchers, reports, manuals and researchers, reports, manuals and internet. internet.

Earth Observing Systems Earth Observing Systems and Networks:and Networks:

Current Earth observing systems include Current Earth observing systems include networks of satellite- borne and ground-networks of satellite- borne and ground-based sensors-including ocean buoys, based sensors-including ocean buoys, weather stations and atmospheric weather stations and atmospheric radiosondes, that provide important radiosondes, that provide important parameters relating to land, ocean and parameters relating to land, ocean and atmospheric processes. atmospheric processes.

The main Earth observing networks and The main Earth observing networks and international programmes that coordinate international programmes that coordinate the different observations include:the different observations include:

Earth Observing Systems Earth Observing Systems and Networks contd….and Networks contd….

The main Earth observing networks and The main Earth observing networks and international programmes that coordinate the international programmes that coordinate the different observations include:different observations include:

World Weather Watch (WWW), Global Observing World Weather Watch (WWW), Global Observing System (GOS), Global Telecommunication System System (GOS), Global Telecommunication System (GTS), the Global Data Processing System.(GDPS), (GTS), the Global Data Processing System.(GDPS), Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW),Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), Global Ocean Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS),Observing System (GOOS), Global Climate Global Climate Observing System (GCOS),Observing System (GCOS), Committee on Earth Committee on Earth Observation Satellites, (CEOS), Observation Satellites, (CEOS), Global Sea Level Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS),Observing System (GLOSS), Global Terrestrial Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS). Observing System (GTOS).

Discussion of resultsDiscussion of results From this research it shows that right from the period From this research it shows that right from the period

people started making observations and weather people started making observations and weather forecasting, the early observing methods were based on forecasting, the early observing methods were based on pattern recognition of invents on land, sea and the pattern recognition of invents on land, sea and the atmosphere such the lunar phases, position of stars, colour atmosphere such the lunar phases, position of stars, colour of the sky, movement of winds and sea surfacesof the sky, movement of winds and sea surfaces

From this study it has been found out that since the From this study it has been found out that since the

inception of upper air observing system in 18th century and inception of upper air observing system in 18th century and remote sensing technologies in the 20th century the remote sensing technologies in the 20th century the accuracy of meteorological forecasts have greatly improveaccuracy of meteorological forecasts have greatly improve

With the application of satellite meteorology it With the application of satellite meteorology it has become easy to identify and track severe has become easy to identify and track severe weather disaster such as storm storms and give weather disaster such as storm storms and give warnings that help to protect life and property.warnings that help to protect life and property.

CConclusion:onclusion:

From this study it has been found out that From this study it has been found out that the upper air observing system and the upper air observing system and remote sensing technology have really remote sensing technology have really contributed greatly to accuracy of contributed greatly to accuracy of meteorological forecasts given out the meteorological forecasts given out the world over.world over.

Recommendations:Recommendations:

I recommend that further research need to I recommend that further research need to be done to find out the relative be done to find out the relative contributions from various terrestrial contributions from various terrestrial observing systems to the Numerical observing systems to the Numerical Weather PredictionsWeather Predictions

AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

I I thank my co-author for his thank my co-author for his contribution towards this research contribution towards this research and all those gave given me and all those gave given me assistance when writing this paper.assistance when writing this paper.

THE ENDTHE END THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR LISTENING TO ME. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR LISTENING TO ME.

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CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER-AIR OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND REMOTE SENSING TECHNOLOGIES TO THE ACCURACY OF METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS Bataze James and Khalid Muwembe