-
Charles Hecker | Global Research Director
Russia, the Middle East and
Geopolitics: possible trajectories
-
Todays topics
The political and economic outlook for Russia and the
implications for business
The mixture of security and economics
The impact of the conflict in Ukraine
The near-term trajectory of the Middle East crisis and scenarios
for the future
Iraq and Syria
Other points of interest
Doing business in an increasingly volatile geopolitical
world
Main trends for 2015
What it means for business
-
Lets start at the end: Geopolitics
2015 promises to be a challenging year for business.
Tensions between business and politics will increase
Nationalism will make itself felt as a potent political
force
Politics, politicians and governments will be less and less able
to solve global crises
Companies that anticipate risk and integrate it into their
plans
and strategies will enjoy the other side of risk:
opportunity.
-
Business and politics
Business and politics look at the world in fundamentally
different ways. This will be a source of tension in the
coming year.
Whos running the show?
Business people in airport lounges?
Politicians in government palaces?
-
RISKMAP
2015
Politics without power
It will become increasingly difficult for elected officials to
make the difficult decisions
that governing requires.
The tools exist to make public opposition easier than ever.
It is harder to hold back the tide of public opinion.
Political power isnt what it used to be its weakening.
International consensus is elusive.
-
Nationalism comes back
Risk Map 2015 explores the theme of resurgent
nationalism as a key driver of risk.
Nationalism is not the same as patriotism.
Nationalism can be aggressive, global assertiveness.
Nationalist issues divert attention from domestic and
international problems.
Nationalism includes the emergence of right-wing parties
-
RISKMAP
2015
-
RISKMAP
2015
Russia: an uncertain trajectory
Economically stable countries behave predictably. Economically
unstable countries
behave unpredictably.
Russia and the West have entered a fundamentally new stage of
relations
Putin has rejected the liberal-democratic model
Russias economy will continue to suffer under combined blow of
oil price & sanctions
The reform plan is full of things weve heard before
Nationalism has created an atmosphere of risk for international
investors
Crackdowns on foreign companies were first response to
sanctions
-
RISKMAP
2015
Possible scenarios
Russia and the Wests long-term geopolitical visions are
incompatible
President Putin will not blink first, relations will remain
broken
Any Ukraine agreement will have to preserve his sphere of
influence
Ukraine becomes frozen conflict ongoing instability
The business community would like to be rid of politics
The two issues have to be de-coupled
We do not foresee Russia being thrown out of SWIFT
Still, the Russian economy will continue to suffer
Russian actions in the rest of Europe difficult to predict
Possibility of unconventional conflict
Putin will test Europe with periodic aggression
-
RISKMAP
2015
-
RISKMAP
2015
MENA: Regional issues
2015 is set to be another tumultuous year, even by Middle East
standards
Security environment in the Middle East evolves
We remain optimistic about a deal with Iran
Increased intervention in Iraq and Syria will not end the
conflict
-
RISKMAP
2015
Iraq and Syria
Iraq must address the underlying political drivers of its
security crisis
PM Haider al-Abadi needs to be less divisive than his
predecessor
Confronting IS will not work
Captured territory cannot be retaken without high civilian
casualties
Worst case: full-scale sectarian conflict, with Iraq looking
more like Syria.
Degrading along ethnic, territorial and religious lines
-
www.controlrisks.com
QUESTIONS?
-
www.controlrisks.com
[email protected]
@Charles_Hecker
@Control_Risks
Thank you
