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Conversations at the CrossroadsSystemic Risk: Covid-19 vs Climate Change
Dr Gary Kendall
Prologue
It is endlessly engrossing to take inthe world as a series of events
and constantly surprising becausethat way of seeing the world has
no predictive or explanatory value.
Like the tip of an iceberg rising above the water, events are the most visible
aspects of a larger complex but arenot usually the most important.
Donella Meadows
Iceberg Model
1. Economy
We spend money we don’t have,on things we don’t need,
to create impressions that won’t last, on people we don’t care about.
Prof. Tim Jackson
public services are assets, not liabilities!
multilateralism and cooperation are vital
essential needs vs non-essential wants
efficiency ≠ resilience
we are *not* all in this together
fringe ideas moving towards mainstream
future accelerates
discontinuity = scale speed fear
2. Parallels
It may provide an object lesson in what happens when you don’t cooperate with other countries.
A wall can’t keep out the Covidmicrobe, any more than it can knock down a CO2 molecule.
Bill McKibben
systemic risks → threat multipliers
LIVES
LIVELIHOODS LIBERTIES
competing & overlapping priorities
science, expertise vs conspiracy, fake news
flattening the curve buys time
mitigation paradox
praying for a silver bullet
3. Contrasts
The viral disruption was a sudden and visible shock that commanded,
and got, an immediate response.
Climate change is a stealth disruptor – its impacts on our lives are remorselessly incremental and
all the more dangerous for that.
Tom Burke
The presence of a large reservoir ofSARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic
mammals in southern China, is a time bomb.
The possibility of the re-emergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for
preparedness should not be ignored.
Cheng et al, CLIN.MICROBIOL.REV., Vol. 20, 2007, p. 660–694
enemy without
enemy within
vested interests
right here, right now!
yeah, well, no, maybe…
A delay in a feedback process is critical relative to rates of change in the
system state that the feedback loopis trying to control.
Overlong delays in a system with a threshold, a danger point, a range past
which irreversible damage can occur,cause overshoot and collapse.
Donella Meadows
fast feedback
Schools closed
National curfew
Borders closed
Gradual reopen
52 days
slow feedback
Source: IPCC WGII AR5
temporary adjustment, reversible impacts
permanent reconfiguration, irreversible changes
4. Future
Modern humanityis distinguished by
palæolithic emotions, medieval institutions,
and God-like technology.
Edward O. Wilson
what do you see?
political will
energy security problem
blue sky thinking
atmospheric GHGs continue to accumulate
social distancing reconnecting
reboot or reconfigure?
Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change.
When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around.
Milton Friedman
