Cooperative Modeling

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System Dynamics and Regional Water Planning inthe Middle Rio Grande Basin

Vincent Tidwell, Howard Passell, Erik Webb, SteveConrad and Dick Thomas

Sandia National Laboratories

Gary Woodard and Jesse RoachUniversity of Arizona

Presentation to: Scenario Development Team

January 25, 2003



Modeling Objectives

• Provide a tool for quantitatively comparing water management alternatives and scenarios, in terms of:

Water savings, and

Cost to implement and maintain the alternative

• Provide tool for engaging policy makers, stakeholders,and the public in the decision process

• Demonstrate the interconnectedness and complexity of our regional water system



System Dynamics

• We employ System Dynamics , which provides aformal framework for managing multiple interacting

subsystems, each of whichvary in time

• With system dynamics we areuniquely able to quantify

feed-back, time delays, andcoupling between subsystemcomponents

rface Wa

rbasin Transf

ater U

ace Water Extrac

om Aodel

o Aode

1

2

ecipitatio

potranspirat

unof

oundwat

ndwater Return F

ndwater Extract

Oceanischarg

ace Water to Oc

ce Water Return

echarg

turn Flo

ater Us

G r o u n d w a t e r D i s c h a r e

Agricultural Water R Water M Ag Mod

Urbplusind_consum

precip

precip_avg

GW_to_ocean

GW_proportion

available_water_apportionment

ET

precip_apportionment

Precip_mm

Ocean

GW_extraction

GW_return_flow

min_SW_to_ocean

SW_to_ocean

SW_extraction

Sw_return_flow

available_SW

available_GW

total_consumption

urban_demand

SW_flow

urban_consumption

ind_consumption

dynamic_static_switch

SW_to_oceanSw_return_flow

runoff_avg

ag_consumption

ag_consumption

total_extraction

interbasin_transfers_in

SW_flow

GW_discharge

interbasin_transfers_out

ind_consumption

GW_extraction

GW_return_flowtotal_extraction

current_ag_consumption

interbasin_transfers_out

interbasin_transfers_in

SW_flow

GW_to_oceanrecharge_avg

SW_extraction

GW_discharge

Recharge

std_normal ind_demand

runoff

precip_stdev

urban_consumption

ind_consumption

urban_SW_proportion

ag_GW_proportion

GW_to_ocean

SW_extraction_1980GW_extraction_1980

recharge_avg

mm_precip_avg

mm_precip_stdev

basin_area

runoff_stdev

runoff_avg

recharge_avg

urban_delta

min_SW_to_ocean

ind_delta

ind_SW_proportion

urban_consumption

ag_SW_proportion

current_urban_consumption

current_ind_consumption

current_ag_consumption

avg_SW_to_Ocean

Ag_model_switch

ag_demand

years_to_completion_inyears_to_completion_out

additional_capacity_in additional_capacity_out

aqueduct_switch_in

aqueduct_switch_out

current_capacity_in current_capacity_out

interbasin_transfers_ininterbasin_transfers_out

Basin_Water_Req

Ag_model_requirements

ag_delta

dynamic_static_switch

Sw_return_flowGW_return_flow

Ag_available

total_demand

total_extraction

Surplus

maximum_extractable_amount

ag_consumption

Focus on the broad-scale structure of the system



Why System Dynamics• Broadly accessible

PC basedUser friendlyinterfacesComputationsin seconds tominutes

• Models easilymodified for scenario testing

Model Controls

Set Model ParametersPer Capita Water Use

50 100 150 200 250

Rural

100.0

100 150 200 250 300

AlbuquerqueResidential

180.0

50 100 150 200

Albuquerque Non-Residential

70.00

Return Flow Rates

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Sewered

0.50

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Septic Tanks

0.75

ET Rates

1 2 3 4 5

Riparian

3.00

2 3 4 5 6 7

Open Water

5.00

Agricultural Proportions

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Return Flow

0.333

1 2 3 4 5

Application

3.00

Use of Infiltration GalleryStart

Stop

Riparian Area Reduction10%

25%

50%

None

Groundwater Inflow fromadjacent Basins

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

28,400.80

Run Model

Set Parameters

Run Model

1.

2.

Run Modelwith DefaultParameters

OR

Go toGroundwater Results

Go toSurfaceWater Results

View Whole Model

Go toWater UseResults

Return to Start

View Model Structure

Run Modelone step at

a time

OR

Yearly Time Step 1994



Model Development Process• Assembled a “Cooperative Modeling Team” including members from:

Each Water Assembly constituency group,Middle Region Council of Governments (MRCOG), andUtton Transboundary Resources Center, UNM School of Law

• Team meets every other week to:Conceptualize model components,

Identify external sources of expertise and data, andReview the model

• Community engagementExpose community to model

• Public forums,• Educational venues, and• Community events

Interactions with the professional community• Scenario Development!!!



MRG Model

• Bounded by planning region

boundaries• Simulations on annual timestep

• Primary modules

Surface water Groundwater PopulationDemand

• Urban• Agricultural• Environmental• Evaporative



MRG Model: Surface Water System

Future Albuquerquewithdrawals from river

Transfers togroundwater system

Accounts for shallowaquifer/river

interactions

Disaggregated by three counties

and self-supplied



MRG Model: Inflows

Historic data from 1960-2000

Future aggregate inflowsare stochasticallygenerated from historicaldistributions

Option to include droughtof specified duration andintensity



Agriculture

ET dependson climate

Alsocalculate

irrigationrecharge

Includes conveyance

channel ET and leakage

Data largely from MRGCD and CountyExtension Office





MRG Model: Pumping Induced Leakage

Pumping induced riverleakage simulatedusing the Glover-Balmer Equationcalibrated to USGSMODFLOW data(Kernodle et al., 1995)

Total leakage from all sources (i.e., captured recharge, river

flows, conveyance channel flows, ag recharge) captured bygroundwater pumping



Shallow Aquifer System

Bosque ET calculated

similar to that usedfor the agricultureconsumption term

Balance between Riparian/Ditch bank ET with shallow aquiferinflows from mountain recharge, ag recharge, and conveyancechannel leakage

Drain return flow not derived from un-used irrigation water



MRG Model: Groundwater System

River leakage transfer

Disaggregatedmunicipalwithdrawals

Other major groundwater users

Municipaldemand drivenby population



Urban Withdrawals

• Urban use disaggregated by three

counties and self supplied• Demand is calculated on a per capita

basis, hence population growth fuelsincreasing demand. Use BBER’s

population growth rates

• Demands are calculated separately for indoor and outdoor uses

• Demands are also calculated separately by sector

MunicipalCommercialIndustrialInstitutional



Alternative Conservation Measures• Bosque restoration• Irrigated agriculture

Irrigation efficiency,Conveyance systemlosses, andAlternative crops/acreage

• Municipal Conservation

Water pricing,Water re-use, andResidential/commercialconservationRooftop harvesting

• Desalination• Reservoir storage

Up-stream storage,Artificial recharge, and

New reservoir

Documents

Cooperative Modeling