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Economic perceptions and the mass media: The role of exemplification within economic news stories
by
Austin Sims, BA, MS
A Dissertation
In
MASS COMMUNICATIONS
Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for
the Degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
Approved
Dr. Trent Seltzer Chair of Committee
Dr. Coy Callison
Dr. Weiwu Zhang
Dr. Klaus Becker
Dominick Casadonte Dean of the Graduate School
December, 2012
Copyright 2012, Austin Sims
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
ii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my committee for their dedication and patience as I
worked through the process of completing my dissertation. Dr. Zhang took the time to
sit with me and go over theory and its importance. Dr. Becker did a phenomenal job in
helping me navigate and understand the subject of economics. I never would have
been able to design and create my experiment without Dr. Callison taking the time to
sit down and go over my instrument and story manipulations. And most importantly I
would like to think Dr. Seltzer for his patience in putting up with me and walking me
through each stage of the dissertation. It was very much appreciated.
I would also like to thank the graduate school for their generosity in funding
my dissertation. The funds helped cover the costs of hiring a third party sampling firm
to collect the data needed to power the experiment. Secondly, the graduate program at
the College of Media and Communications for funding my tuition and providing
scholarships that enabled me to continue on in academia.
Also to Dr. Jerry Hudson for providing me an opportunity to work on
academic and applied research at the Center for Communications Research. The
experience I gained from him taking a chance on me has allowed me to continue to
grow as a researcher and prepared me for the next step in my career. And lastly to my
mom, Debbie Sims, for taking the time to read over my work when I was tired and ask
questions when things didn’t make sense. And to my dad, John Sims, for encouraging
me to stick with it and to continue to move forward.
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................. ii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... v LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................... vi I. CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1 II. CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................... 8
Overview ............................................................................................................. 8 Economic and Financial Information in the Media .................................................................. 8 Economic News and the President ......................................................................................... 13 Economic News and the U.S. Electorate ............................................................................... 16 Economic News and the Media Elite ..................................................................................... 24 Economics as an Obtrusive Issue ........................................................................................... 27 Economic Literacy and Assessment ....................................................................................... 28
Theoretical Framework ..................................................................................... 30
Media Effects and Public Opinion ......................................................................................... 30 Exemplification ...................................................................................................................... 32 Information Processing .......................................................................................................... 36 Exemplification of Known Event Populations ....................................................................... 41 Exemplification of Unknown Event Populations ................................................................... 43 Personal Characteristics ......................................................................................................... 43
Research Questions and Hypotheses ................................................................. 45
III. CHAPTER III METHODOLOGY ....................................................................... 50
Overview ................................................................................................................................ 50 Research Participants ............................................................................................................. 50 Experimental Procedures for Testing Economic Communications ....................................... 52 Procedure ................................................................................................................................ 55 Stimulus Material ................................................................................................................... 57
Measures ........................................................................................................... 61
Story Version and Manipulation ............................................................................................ 61 Economic Literacy ................................................................................................................. 63 Arithmetic Aptitude ............................................................................................................... 64 Political Ideology ................................................................................................................... 65 Economic Perceptions ............................................................................................................ 66 Base-rate Recall ..................................................................................................................... 67 Data Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 69
IV. CHAPTER IV RESULTS ................................................................................... 72
H1a: Overall Economic Perceptions ...................................................................................... 72 H1b: Accuracy in Recall ........................................................................................................ 76
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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H2a: Economic Literacy and Economic Perceptions ............................................................. 76 H2b: Accuracy of Recall and Economic Literacy .................................................................. 82 R1: Arithmetic Aptitude, Economic Literacy, and Perceptions of the Economy .................. 82 R2: Political Ideology and Perceptions of the Economy ....................................................... 89
V. CHAPTER V DISCUSSION ................................................................................. 93
Analysis of Basic Exemplification Theory and Economic Perceptions ................................. 94 Analysis of the Effect of Recall ............................................................................................. 97 Analysis of Economic Literacy .............................................................................................. 98 Analysis of Arithmetic Aptitude and Economic Literacy .................................................... 103 Analysis of Political Ideology within Exemplification Theory ........................................... 104 Theoretical Implications ....................................................................................................... 108 Practical Implications ........................................................................................................... 110 Limitations ........................................................................................................................... 112 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 113
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................... 117 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................ 133
A. Economic news story manipulations .......................................................... 133 Base-rate Positive: Exemplar Representative ...................................................................... 133 Base-rate Positive: Exemplar Non-representative ............................................................... 141 Base-rate Positive: Exemplar Mixed .................................................................................... 149 Base-rate Negative: Exemplar Representative ..................................................................... 157 Base-rate Negative: Exemplar Non-representative .............................................................. 165 Base-rate Negative: Exemplar Mixed .................................................................................. 173
B. Measures ..................................................................................................... 181
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
v
ABSTRACT The persuasiveness and influence of exemplars over base-rate information has
been well researched throughout exemplification studies. Few would argue the
narratives, vivid language, and sometimes colorful statements of exemplars have an
overwhelming effect, suppressing the less than vibrant base-rate. Current studies
though have begun to illustrate individual characteristics that have the ability to short-
circuit the effects of exemplars. For instance, recent research has shown an
individual’s arithmetic aptitude plays a dominant role in how they process numerical
base-rate data versus exemplars. This study continues that line of research, focusing
on how subject matter knowledge, in this case economics, can also reduce and
diminish the influence of exemplars.
Through the implementation of a 2 (high economic & low economic aptitude)
x 2 (base-rate positive & base-rate negative) x 3 (representative, non-representative, &
mixed exemplars) experiment the results showed individuals with higher economic
literacy were less influenced by exemplars and held relatively consistent attitudes
toward the overall strength of the economy across all conditions. Individuals
possessing lower economic literacy were found to be significantly more affected by
exemplars as their attitudes and opinions varied across the different manipulations,
indicating their lack of knowledge regarding the subject left them susceptible to
exemplars.
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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LIST OF FIGURES 3.1 Within-Subjects Design. .............................................................................. 54
3.2 Experimental Design .................................................................................... 55 3.3 Story Manipulation ...................................................................................... 60
3.4 Base-rate Manipulation ................................................................................ 61 3.5 Exemplar Manipulation ................................................................................ 62
3.6 Representative Manipulation ....................................................................... 62 3.7 Graphical Representation of Measures ........................................................ 71
4.1 Economic Perceptions across Story Manipulations ..................................... 73 4.2 Economic Perceptions by Story Version ..................................................... 74
4.3 Economic Perceptions across Exemplar Conditions .................................... 75 4.4 Economic Perceptions, Economic Literacy, & Story
Version ......................................................................................................... 78 4.5 Low Literacy, Economic Perceptions across Story Version ........................ 79
4.6 Economic Literacy, Economic Perceptions, & Exemplars .......................... 80 4.7 Economic Literacy, Economic Perceptions, & Base-rate
Information ................................................................................................... 81 4.8 Economic Literacy, Recall, & Representativeness ...................................... 82 4.9 Arithmetic Aptitude and Economic Perceptions .......................................... 83
4.10 Low Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Economic Perceptions ................................................................................................... 84
4.11 High Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Economic Perceptions ................................................................................................... 84
4.12 Low Arithmetic Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Story Version ......................................................................................................... 85
4.13 High Arithmetic Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Story Version ......................................................................................................... 86
4.14 High Arithmetic Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Exemplars ..................................................................................................... 87
4.15 Arithmetic Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Base-rate Information ................................................................................................... 88
4.16 Political Ideology and Economic Perceptions ............................................. 89
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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4.17 Political Ideology, Economic Perceptions, & Story Version ......................................................................................................... 90
4.18 Political Ideology, Economic Perceptions, & Exemplars ............................ 91 4.19 Political Ideology, Economic Perceptions, & Base-rate .............................. 92
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
1
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
Beginning in December 2007 and continuing into the present, the United States
and much of the world are still rebuilding from the financial downturn that destabilized
much of the global economy (Wessel, 2010). Economic stories dominated both the media
and public agendas from 2008 until 2011 (The Pew Research Center, 2011a) with 44
percent of respondents stating they followed economic news stories very closely, far
outpacing the 2012 elections and the war in Afghanistan. In 2009, 20 percent of news
stories covered the economy while coverage of health care was a distant second with only
9 percent. The trend continued in 2010 as the economy finished first among all other news
reporting with 14 percent while the midterm elections only received 10 percent. At the
same time, 67 percent of viewers stated that economic news coverage has increasingly
become more negative (The Pew Research Center, 2011b). This perception of negative
coverage extends across stories related to jobs (75%), financial markets (69%), real estate
(63%), and food and consumer prices (62%) and is relatively even among Republicans
(71%), Democrats (62%), and independents (69%).
Unfortunately, almost five years later communications scholars have seemingly
ignored what role, if any, the mass media may have played in consumer confidence in the
months and years leading up to and following the event. This may be due to the difficult
and ubiquitous nature of the economy. Alternatively, this may be because there seems to
be little to no consensus among economists, politicians, and academics about the current
state of the economy then and now.
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Even credible sources that everyday citizens rely upon struggled to understand and
explain the economic situation. In February of 2008, President Bush addressed the nation
stating that we were not headed into a recession, but an economic slowdown (MSNBC,
2008). However, eleven months later the National Bureau of Economic Research
declared the economy was indeed in a recession (Abate, 2008). From that point on, the
name and description of the economic downturn was framed differently based on politics,
ideology, and expertise. Vice President Biden on NBC’s Today Show described it as the
“Bush Recession” (Diemer, 2010). On the other side of the spectrum, radio political
pundit Rush Limbaugh called it the “Obama recession,” and cable television political
pundit Sean Hannity blamed the economy on “Obama’s bear market” (Media Matters,
2009). The Economist (2009) expanded the geographic scope of the event, calling it a
"slowdown" to "recession" and then to a “Great Recession.” From there it became a
“lesser depression” (Krugman, 2011). Finally, the events that began as a slowdown ended
as a “second great depression” (Paul, 2008). President Obama’s former economist
speculated there is a 50/50 chance the United States is headed into a “double-dip
recession” (Daly, 2011) which presents the conundrum of whether politicians and the
media help create self-fulfilling prophecies that, in essence, lead us toward or away from
negative economic conditions. As President Obama tries, much like President Bush did, to
alleviate fears of an economic recession, economists, business leaders, and the media are
asking if the recession ever really ended (Tseng, 2010; The Economist, 2010).
When not creating anxiety and panic in the market, the media also creates
confusion by presenting seemingly contradictory information in its reporting. Take for
instance two headlines drawn from a cable news station: “Risk of double dip recession:
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
3
Unlikely, but rising” and “Economists see no 2nd recession, no real recovery” (Isidore,
2010; Wiseman, 2011). The first story reported that the risks of a double dip recession are
unlikely but that those risks are rising. At the same time, a viewer can feel relief that a
recession is unlikely to occur and immediately feel threatened that the risks of a recession
are rising. The reporting of numerical probabilities is relatively uneven as the reporter
states there is a “one-in-four chance” of a double-dip recession occurring while later on
reporting the risk is as high as 40 percent. The reporter changed the numerical ratio
multiple times throughout the story, assuming readers process the information the same.
In the second story “Economists see no 2nd recession, no real recovery,” the
viewers are presented with a situation in which the state of the economy is ambiguous.
The author does make a consequential statement that indicates the duality or “catch-22”
logic of this study. He further states, “What makes a solution so difficult is that the fear
gripping investors isn’t just a symptom of economic distress; it’s also a cause of it” (p. 1).
The question becomes “where does this fear begin?” Studies show economic perceptions
are derived from two sources: personal experience and the general state of the economy
(Kinder & Kiewet, 1979). Common sense would indicate it is reasonable for fear to come
from personal experience. In fact, economic measures such as the Consumer Sentiment
Index and Consumer Confidence Index try to gauge an individual’s personal experience as
much as possible. However, research (Kinder & Kiewet, 1979) has shown a difference
exists between personal experience and perceptions on the overall state of the economy; in
this case, the fear transfixing consumers and investors must come from another location.
To clarify this situation, if economic perceptions are derived from personal experience,
then individuals gather this information from their employment, family and friends, their
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
4
community, social networks, and affiliations. However, if personal experience of
economic conditions is significantly different from how people view the general state of
the economy, then Kinder and Kiewet indicated that economic information must come
from another source outside of personal experience. While they did not elaborate on the
nature of the outside source, it is logical that the media most likely has an influential role
in shaping those perceptions.
There is little doubt the news media play a role in forming economic perceptions
(Shah, Watts, Domke, Fan, & Fibison, 1999) while often providing a misleading or
inaccurate representation of the economic “reality” (Goidel & Langley, 2005;
Hetherington, 1996; Patterson, 1993;). Some of this may be explained by Mullainathan
and Shleifer (2005) in their analysis of how the media use a type of spin or “slant” in its
quest to create a meaningful story. Unfortunately, even the most genuine and well-
meaning editorializing of economic news can underscore the true nature of economic
policy, sending the wrong signals concerning the economic impact of those policies
(Alsem, Brakman, Hoogduin, & Kuper, 2008). For instance, a recent Forbes article
“When journalists meet numbers: Not a pretty sight” attacks journalists for their lack of
knowledge on the subject of economics and for reporting stories about which they have
little understanding (Worstall, 2011). In the news article referenced in the Worstall piece,
a newspaper journalist reported that a recent change in tax law would constitute a tax hike
for consumers. The Forbes article refuted each of the reporter’s explanations line-by-line
by focusing on her mathematic acuity and terminology. The Forbes author finally
reasoned that the new law was in fact a tax deduction and not a hike at all.
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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Another problem is that the media often display characteristics of a “herd
behavior” by focusing on buzzwords such as “economic crisis” and reporting on negative
aspects of the crisis and how it might become worse (Shiller, 1995). The ramifications of
“herd behavior,” also known as pack journalism, can lead to a “groupthink mentality that
yields news coverage in a one-sided manner” (Breen & Matusitz, 2008, p. 3). Haiman
(1999) found herd behavior among journalists created stories that are full of rhetoric and
misleading statements which may affect both short- and long-term perceptions of the
audience. Another approach in how reporters cover stories is based upon Mullainathan
and Shleifer’s (2002, 2005) idea that there are two types of media bias: ideological and
spin. They stated that competition among media outlets reduces ideological bias as
viewers amassed opposing views and found the truth most often existed in the middle (p.
531). However, their results also found that reducing ideological bias through competition
leads to greater spin as outlets seek to create memorable stories. Alsem et al. (2008) used
the concept of spin bias to determine that media reports magnified actual changes in the
economy, leading to higher volatility in consumer confidence.
Hatzinikolaou (2010) found evidence such descriptions shock or augment
“economic agents to adjust their expectations of economic activity downwards and to
reduce their spending much more than they should, thus fulfilling these expectations” (p.
144). An additional side-effect resulting from the herd behavior of the media was not only
economic destabilization but also longer lasting business cycle contractions and shorter
expansions. In essence, “the news media are doing more than communicating news about
economic events; they are defining the meaning of the events” (Tims, Fan, & Freeman,
1989, p. 763).
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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However, as the economy is an obtrusive issue (Horner, 2008), based upon one’s
own personal experience or observation, it would seem less likely the media could set the
public agenda, but Zucker (1978) stated it is possible through heavy media exposure.
Perhaps this is due, in part, to the fact that most citizens do not understand the basic
intricacies of how the economy works, or that even when presented with correct
information are unable to decipher the numbers, ratios, and meanings behind the
information. This leads viewers to take media cues and use heuristics to form economic
judgments that considerably influence their perceptions (Mondak, 1993; Pan & Kosicki,
1997). While critics lambast the idea of powerful media effects (Severin & Tankard,
1992), there is little doubt that the way in which the media frames economic information
is a significant indicator of consumer confidence and perceptions of the general state of
the economy (Fan, 1993).
The purpose of this paper is to answer three primary questions regarding the
relationship of the news media and economic news coverage with how people process or
understand economic information presented in the news. The first question focuses on,
whether individuals or audiences are affected by base-rate information or the exemplars
within economic information as reported by the media? Building upon the first question,
the second delves further by asking, what effect does either have on how individuals
perceive the state of the economy and their ability to accurately recall information? And
lastly, do personal characteristics, such as subject-matter knowledge or political ideology,
determine how they are influenced by base-rate information versus the use of exemplars in
news stories? Results from these questions will help answer questions regarding how
methodical the media should be in their reporting of economic indicators while also
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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stressing the importance of how audiences’ basic understanding of the economic
indicators affects their overall perceptions of the economy.
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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CHAPTER II
LITERATURE REVIEW
Overview
The academic field of economic communication is relatively scattered and
discombobulated, preventing it from becoming a more thoroughly studied area. This may
be due in part to the complicated nature of understanding economics, the lack of cross-
academe studies between mass communications and economics, as well as a lack of
shared theoretical backgrounds. Although economics and political science often blend
their fields together and political science and mass communications have similar ties,
there is very little to indicate that a nexus exists between economics and mass
communications. It could be said there is little doubt the mass media have an intricate
relationship with national and global economies based upon the news coverage they
provide on economic information and events. However, the role the media play with
respect to economic perceptions and the manner in which audiences process economic
information are still relatively unknown. The major focus of this chapter is how the media
have historically reported economic news and what role exemplification theory has had on
audience perceptions as reported by the media.
Economic and Financial Information in the Media
Economists, business leaders, and academics hold a general opinion that the media
is relatively inaccurate in its portrayal of economic and financial information (Kurtz,
1990). At the very least, it is generally believed that the media is misleading in the
representation of economic figures. Media coverage of economic information is often
factually reported, but issues with accuracy arise during the explanation of the information
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
9
or portrayal of facts (De Boef & Kellstadt, 2004; Goidel, Procopio, Terrell, & Hu, 2010).
Worstall’s (2011) aforementioned Forbes article illustrated how a journalist can
accurately report the facts of an economic policy and through the simple explanation of
those facts inaccurately communicate a misleading story. Research on trends related to
economic news and the news media has found that traditionally the news is negatively
skewed (Shen, 2009; Soroka, 2006), and according to Goidel and Langley’s (1995) study
of the New York Times, economic media coverage “bears no relationship with economic
reality” (Shen, 2009, p. 382). If this state of misinformation is a lasting trend, then two
conflicting scenarios exist: (1) it is a violation of what Shen (2009) calls the media’s role
of informing and motivating audiences, or (2) it supports Martin’s (2008) assessment that
bad news is good for political and civic participation (p. 389).
The implications of the dissemination of potentially ambiguous and confusing
information, especially in the current economic climate, are far-reaching. Misinformation
can affect consumer behavior, financial institutions, and political voting (Alsem et al.,
2008; Hatzinikolaou, 2010; Starr, 2010). It is well established that repercussions related to
irresponsible reporting can weigh heavily on today’s society (Matusitz & Breen, 2007).
Within the realm of economic reporting, the reasons for these common oversights are not
completely understood. It is possible that the communication of incorrect information by
the media is a reflection of media ignorance due to a lack of economic experience,
exposure, or even laziness.
Harrington (1989) stated, “there is a common perception among some critics that
the networks’ coverage of the economy distorts reality” (p. 17). Harrington’s study
showed that economic downturns such as inflation, unemployment, and stagnation were
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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given significantly more coverage than economic prosperity and that in nonelection years,
broadcast television was more likely to provide coverage of poor economic conditions
such as unemployment, inflation rates, and the growth rate of the GNP than during an
election cycle. As economic conditions declined, negative economic news stories were
“approximately 34 percent longer and twice as likely to lead the evening newscasts” (p.
34). Evidence suggests that in situations in which the media misrepresented economic
information during a recession, the misrepresentation may have stunted economic
recovery due to reduced spending (Blanchard, 1993). Overly positive or negative news
coverage can lead to heavy consumer spending or saving (Starr, 2010). Unfortunately, it is
not just the tone of the report that can lead to misunderstanding; Starr (2010) was also
quick to point out that even when the media uses “hard data,” there is still a great
probability that viewers will make incorrect inferences.
Research showed the media provides cues on a host of issues that, in turn,
influence an audience (Sniderman, Brody, & Tetlock, 1991). Kuklinski and Hurley (1994)
believe these cues act as heuristics, allowing audience members to make quick mental
judgments and calculations about political issues. In many situations, heuristics provide
individuals the ability to make rapid decisions based upon the small amount of
information which they have gathered or have been exposed to. Ideally, an individual has
enough knowledge or experience with an issue to make an informed decision. However, in
terms of economics, few people have the basic education or understanding to construct
well-informed, and deliberate opinions, (Roos (2007). Because of these situations, it is
“plausible that shifts in campaign coverage of the economy would considerably influence
citizens’ political judgments” (Shah, Watts, Domke, Fan, & Fibison, 1999, p. 918).
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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Heuristics are not directly tied into Starr’s (2010) hypothesis that correct “hard
data” can lead to incorrect inferences. Brosius and Bathelt (1994) explained that base-rate
information is the facts that provide the basic, general information that may include the
causes, consequences, or importance of an issue. Even so, it is easy to see how even the
most accurate, base-rate information can be incorrectly inferred if an individual makes
erroneous or poor associations with other information or is not provided with additional
information from the source as to a cause or reason. Therefore, an example of how base-
rate information could be misinterpreted might be a news report regarding unemployment,
minorities, and drug use. If the story stated that those who frequently abused drugs were
more likely to receive welfare, that in times of economic downturn minorities were more
likely to face unemployment than Caucasians, and that individuals who find themselves
unemployed were more likely to accept welfare, then three factually distinct base-rate
statements taken together might lead one to believe that minorities were frequent drug
users. Without a qualifier differentiating the three it is easy to see how incorrect
correlations could occur using base-rate information. Unfortunately, the difficult nature of
understanding economic factors, indicators, and news may lend itself to false syllogisms
in the media.
Coverage of financial information and the economy is similar in many ways to the
coverage of the local weather forecast. Erikson, MacKuen, and Stimson (2000) stated that
people often watch the news to determine “whether or not tomorrow’s economy will be a
nice economic day” (Goidel, Procopio, Terrell, & Wu, 2010, p. 3). Local media coverage
provides little in analytical analyses, focusing on stock prices and consumer prices, and
often avoids the presentation of economic data unless it is considered a national issue (Wu
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
12
& Day, 2005). The national news, on the other hand, mixes opinions with sources while
overall providing a broad examination and overview of the economy. In contrast to
national coverage, local affiliates or news outlets’ rare coverage of economic news almost
always contains a regional “spin” that incorporates local businesses in an attempt to
personalize the story and give it a more local feel. Many of these stories are softball pieces
meant to highlight (Goidel et al., 2010) and boost awareness of an issue without
necessarily engaging the audience (Kaniss, 1991).
In a comparison of national and local economic news, Goidel et al. (2010) found
that although both primarily focus on negative aspects, national news media was
significantly more negative than local news. This was true for both television and
newspaper coverage. Respondents in the study indicated they received the vast majority of
their information from national news (54%), followed by local television (17%), and local
newspapers (10%). National print media was more closely associated with economic
conditions and followed changes in the economy quicker than local news outlets.
Results showed that correlations existing between “pocketbook” expectations and
leading economic indicators did not pertain to the state unemployment rate and only
extended to the national level. The overall tone was not flattering; the authors noted that
while most people receive their information from broadcast news, broadcast news and
local newspapers were “not closely aligned with real economic conditions” (p. 15).
This overemphasis in reporting in many ways mirrors how media coverage of
economic news is similar to media coverage of violent crime. As the news often
overstates rising levels of violent crime, the media shows a similar pattern in the
overemphasis of negative economic conditions in the U.S. (Altheide, 1997). Soroka
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(2006) attributes this very real occurrence to journalists’ asymmetric interests; many
journalists adhere to the belief that audiences value negative information and find it more
informative than positive information. If asymmetrical news is indicative of a society that
holds the government accountable and thus a component of the watchdog role, Soroka
writes that asymmetric news may be an “underappreciated dynamic in both public opinion
and media coverage” (p. 374).
Given the capricious state of economic news coverage in the United States,
citizens’ perceptions and evaluations of the economy are only as good as the information
they are provided. Mutz (1992) believes that if people derive their attitudes from personal
experience and the news media, then any information not directly reflective of the
economic reality will skew public opinion. Because much of the research has centered
around the tone of media coverage in reports on economic news, recent studies
additionally focused on the type of economic information most likely to be covered
(Fogarty, 2005). Basic changes in economic indicators and inflation rarely cause spikes in
the amount of news reported. However, changes in unemployment rates cause significant
variance in the trends and level of reporting among news providers. As unemployment
rises, so does the amount of news coverage given to the subject; this increase in news
coverage sometimes exacerbates the situation as journalists tend to use emotionally driven
stories that magnify the current conditions (Fogarty, 2005). As unemployment decreases,
the media responds much more slowly, and the reporting on improved employment rates
does not reflect the speed at which unemployment improves.
Economic News and the President
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News coverage of the economy extends well beyond economic cycles of low and
high unemployment, inflation and deflation, and the GDP. Often the state of the economy
plays a prominent role throughout political campaigns and more specifically throughout
presidential elections. The 1992 presidential election is an illustration of the nation’s
economic reality juxtaposed with media portrayal. In July 1990, the nation’s economy
slowed into a recession, and by March 1991 it was over. Hetherington (1996) explored
how the media portrayed an ailing economy during the 1992 election, 20 months after the
recession officially ended. Interestingly, he found that increased exposure to the media
resulted in more common perceptions that the economy was still in a downturn. Thus,
voters who turned to the media for their economic and political news, regardless of
personal experience, were more likely to view the recession as on-going.
Studies (Edwards, Mitchell, & Welch, 1995; Patterson, 1993) during this period
demonstrated that as the media shifted its focus from the Gulf War to the economy, news
coverage was overwhelmingly negative. Even as the economy continued to improve after
the recession was officially over, the media emphasized the economic “crisis” facing the
nation. Patterson (1993) showed news coverage with references to the economy was 90
percent negative and 80 percent of the coverage targeted the Bush administration.
Hetherington (1996) believed “had voters cast their ballots based on the actual condition
of the national economy in 1992, they more than likely would have returned George Bush
to office” (p. 373).
Some researchers believe that negative economic reporting grew from President
Bush’s increase in approval ratings garnered during the Gulf War (Stevenson,
Gonzenbach, & David, 1991). Although this may seem conspiratorial, Blood and Phillips
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
15
(1995) referred to the concept as the “adversarial press hypothesis” (p. 6). Supporting this
hypothesis is evidence to suggest the nature, positive or negative, of national news stories
is highly correlated with presidential approval ratings (Graber, 1993). According to Blood
and Phillips (1995), the potential dominance of the media’s focus on the economy over all
other issues may have “primed” news audiences’ perceptions regarding the president
(Iyengar & Kinder, 1984). Under priming, as news audiences are exposed to specific
messages, they cognitively process stimuli and construct future evaluations based upon
the stimulus (Hetherington & Rudolph, 2008), and because “most citizens are not
generally interested in politics, they cannot assimilate the complex political information
with which they are inundated” (Hetherington, 1996, p. 375). That citizens are unable to
cohesively understand the information forces them to synthesize information accessible
from memory. This synthesized information becomes the basis on which evaluations of
the president are made.
In expanding on the 1992 election, Shah et al. (1999) examined how economic
issues and the president were covered by the media during the 1984, 1988, 1992, and 1996
campaigns. Not unexpectedly, they found incumbent presidents garnered significantly
more economic coverage than their opponents did. Also, during times of economic
prosperity, the sitting president received not only more economic coverage but also more
positive coverage. The inverse is true as well. An incumbent president presiding over
economic downturns was more likely to receive substantially more negative coverage.
This is evident in the 1992 presidential election and from an unsubstantiated observation
of the 2012 presidential election.
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16
Four years following the 1992 presidential election, the economy continued to
grow at record levels, and throughout the 1996 presidential election, negative opinions of
the economy were relatively low. This led Domke et al. (1997) to observe that during
periods of a healthy economy people are more likely to employ retrospective attitudes
toward the economy while prospective attitudes are more prevalent during a downturn or
recession. Domke et al. (1997) believed that in times of economic prosperity
(retrospective) individuals focus on how well they are doing relative to how well they
have done in the past. This type of rationale is reflected in measures of consumer
confidence in which questions ask how people feel they are (better or worse) financially
than they were the year prior. However, in times of economic downturn or recession the
authors felt people became more forward thinking (prospective) about economic
conditions and the general direction of the economy. As times become better, people tend
to make comparisons to the past, perhaps taking a glass is half full approach; and as times
grow worse, people focus on the direction in which they are going while looking for signs
of economic turnaround or changes.
Economic News and the U.S. Electorate
Research has shown media coverage of economic news is often misrepresentative
of economic conditions and can play a substantial role in presidential elections, but little
has been discussed so far as to how voters form decisions based upon economic news
reporting. In examining Hetherington’s (1996) aforementioned statement regarding
voter’s cognitive processing of political information, a conflicting question arises: “Do
people base their voting and consumer behaviors on the environmental conditions around
them or are their attitudes and opinions shaped by the general state of the nation’s
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economy?” These questions are studied extensively within economic and political
research culminating in Kinder and Kiewiet’s (1979, 1981) seminal findings. In the
context of economic voting, the authors identified two types of economic voters: egotropic
or “pocketbook” voters who focus on the instantaneous, palpable economic events that
shape their lives (Bloom & Price, 1975) and sociotropic voters who focus on the general
economic welfare of the nation and base their voting decisions on the current economic
climate and the party in power. A better way of understanding this idea is that
“pocketbook voting reflects the circumstances and predicaments of personal economic
life; sociotropic voting reflects the circumstances and predicaments of national economic
life” (Kinder & Kiewiet, 1981, p. 132).
Understanding how people potentially act on their perceptions of the economy
helps explain the rationale behind voting behavior. However, the 1992 presidential
election and simultaneous negative media coverage of the economy create a situation in
which an individual’s economic perceptions and the economic reality are called into
question. Kinder and Kiewet (1979) found a difference existed between voters’ personal
economic experiences and their subjective opinions of the overall state of the economy. In
deciding on the qualifications and economic rationale behind their voting decision, voters’
perceptions of the economy significantly outweighed their own personal economic
experiences. Surprisingly, the way through which individuals applied sociotropic versus
egotropic voting decisions was based upon the level of office they were voting for (Mutz,
1992). For individuals voting in a presidential election, the media played a much greater
role in shaping perceptions of the current state of the economy. However, as the elections
moved down the ballot, different sets of criteria are taken into account. In statewide and
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local elections the results showed people indirectly allowed pocketbook issues to enter
into their decision-making. As the races came closer to voters in proximity, voters began
to cognitively associate closer economic conditions to those races.
Kramer (1983) attempted to explain the discrepancies between economic
perceptions and the economic reality of individuals living under the same economic
conditions by attributing the differences to partisanship and measurement error. Gerber
and Huber (2010) indicated partisanship was shown to have positive effects on
perceptions of the economy when a particular individual’s party is in office. The results
offered complimentary evidence toward the predictive nature of economic indicators
because the authors found partisanship exerted less influence on perceptions of how the
economy is currently performing and more on perceptions of how a particular party would
be able to bring about substantial change in the economy. This can be explained in today’s
political climate; Republicans are more likely to have doubts or negative opinions of the
economy when the country has a Democrat as president or has a Democrat controlled
Congress. Consequently, partisans’ biased perceptions of the economy are based more on
the economic competency of a particular party and less on their current personal economic
status (Gerber & Huber, 2010). This does not mean though that partisan individuals and
their biased perceptions can’t be controlled in a survey or experiment.
There is evidence that partisan bias in economic surveys can be manipulated
through the use of questions that ask about local gas prices (Ansolabehere, Meredith, &
Snowberg, 2011). When asked about the economy, individuals’ subjective evaluations
may include perceptions of unemployment of friends and family as well as partisanship
resulting in measurement error. However, the authors found perceptions of gas prices are
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based upon an individual’s most recent trip to the gas station and are not reflective of
partisan ideals or biases. Similar to the economy, gas prices are obtrusive and highly
salient issues among most individuals, yet neither party identification nor socioeconomic
status had any significant effect on perceptions of gas prices.
In contrast to this, other researchers offered that individuals have different
methods of evaluating the economy based on varying preferences (Kinder, Adams, &
Gronke, 1989). In these situations, everyday economic indicators such as wages, salaries,
gas prices, and groceries offer objective assessments through which people can judge
economic performance (DeBoef & Kellstadt, 2004).
Parallel with perceptions of the current state of the economy, there are
expectations “that party control has real effects on economic policy and performance”
(Ladner & Wlezien, 2007, p. 591). Ladner and Wlezien’s research reaffirms the reasons
why economic reports such as the consumer confidence and consumer sentiment indexes
ask questions regarding consumer opinions on goods, prices, unemployment, and gas
prices a year in advance. Voters use future economic indicators as predictive tools to
indicate which party will have the most positive impact on the economy 12 months in
advance, as they realize that meaningful effect will not occur in the immediate period
directly following the election. MacKuen, Erickson, and Stimson (1992) stated that
“citizens are primarily concerned with the economic future rather than the economic past”
(p. 314).
In follow-up studies on sociotropic voting, Ansolabehere, Meredith, and Snowberg
(2008) asked the question, “If a voter’s evaluation of the overall state of the economy does
not include their personal economic experience, where does their information about the
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economy come from?” (p. 3). Through the use of a preliminary ANES Pilot (2006) study,
the authors found that those with high exposure to radio news were more likely to
perceive the country as having lower unemployment rates. Exposure to television news
was shown to be correlated with perceptions of higher unemployment rates. This partially
supports Hetherington’s (1996) hypothesis on the relationship between the media and
voter’s evaluations of the president during the 1992 presidential race. In this scenario,
heavy exposure to the news and media was significantly correlated with negative
retrospective evaluations of the nation’s economy. Unfortunately, due to the nature of the
ANES Pilot (2006) study, questions regarding individual’s acquisition and processing of
economic information could not be ascertained, leaving a void in the literature.
The connection between voters and consumers and how their perceptions of the
economy influence their attitudes and opinions regarding the government and voting is
robust within economic and political science literature. Following along these lines, the
relationship between the public and the media is well established with the media seen as
influential in telling people not only what to think about but also how to think (McCombs
& Shaw, 1972; Entman, 1993). Consequently, McCombs and Shaw’s agenda setting
research may prove instrumental in answering the question Ansolabeher, Meredith, and
Snowberg (2008) asked: “If a voter’s evaluation of the overall state of the economy does
not include their personal economic experience, where does their information about the
economy come from?” (p. 3).
That question can be broken down into three parts in an effort to explicate in more
detail what the ANES Pilot study (2006) could not answer: (1) where do perceptions of
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the economy come from, (2) how do individuals acquire economic information, and
perhaps most importantly, (3) how do individuals process economic information?
Zucker (1978) claimed the media was more influential on the public agenda when
exposure or “direct experience” of the issue was limited, inherently finding those issues to
be unobtrusive. However, the economy in many ways presents a conundrum. During the
1980 and 1988 presidential campaigns, working class individuals were less likely to view
inflation and unemployment rates as highly salient issues due to the positive economic
environment (Southwell, 1996). Because of the climate and because individuals viewed
those issues as low importance, voting during those two elections was lower. In contrast,
the 1984 and 1992 presidential elections delivered opposite findings. As the economic
climate began to sour and concerns regarding inflation and unemployment rose, both the
saliency of those issues and voter turnout were greater.
These two studies show the duality regarding the nature of economics. Zucker
(1978) found people’s personal experience toward an obtrusive issue makes the media less
influential. However, Southwell (1996) showed that as the economy grew healthier it
became less of an issue among the public and was less salient as well. To better
understand this, Lang and Lang (1981) explained that as an issue is deemed of greater
importance by a proportion of the population, media influence wanes. When an issue is
seen as less important or as affecting a smaller portion of the population, the media’s
influence over that issue grows. Simply, the more an issue affects a group of people, the
more they’ll discuss the issue together, limiting the media’s role in the discussion.
In comparing Lang and Lang’s (1981) study with Kramer (1971), the answer is not
so clear. According to Kramer, individuals rationalize their voting decisions on their
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perception of the general state of the economy and not on personal experience. Therefore,
the idea of “pocketbook” voting becomes secondary to how people view the national
economic climate. Lang and Lang's research is supported when voter perceptions of the
general state of the economy are drawn from others around them and are enhanced by
their own personal experience. Building upon Lang and Lang’s hypothesis, if people’s
perceptions of the general state of the economy come from external sources outside of
personal experience or social networks or if an individual has limited contact or
engagement within social environments, then the chances of the media being more
influential on economic voting attitudes and behaviors increases.
Throughout the literature there is a general consensus that people judge the
economy through personal “pocketbook” observations or upon perceptions of the general
state of the economy. While individuals can objectively feel and observe the effects of the
economy on their lives, they can only subjectively view the national economy.
Reeves and Gimpel (2011) detailed these observations:
No one experiences national conditions. The state of the economy is but a set of
summary measures averaged across thousands of communities and millions of
individuals. Individuals do not directly experience the national gross domestic
product or the national unemployment rate. They do have personalized knowledge
of economic conditions obtained through conversations with family, friends,
coworkers, and neighbors. In their daily drives to work they might see factory
closings, foreclosure signs being posted, or gas prices on the rise. They see nearby
families disintegrate under the pressure of economic stress. These are geotropic
conditions. (p. 3)
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As studies downplay the “pocketbook” voter aspect, it is important to remember
many of these studies were conducted before the “Great Recession” that began at the end
of 2007. Geotropic conditions appear to be more common as people watch their towns and
cities struggle under the current economic conditions, and due to the recency of the
continuing economic stagnation, few studies are available to examine these conditions.
Fifteen years before the recession, Mutz (1992) stated there was a difference between
reading about unemployment in a newspaper and being handed a pink slip at work. The
psychological and personal impact, he believed, was so great that the gravity of such an
event is inescapable
As the nation’s economy continues to dominate news coverage and create hyper-
saliency of the issue, individuals may be turning back toward their communities to look
for support and understanding from social groups (Mutz & Mondak, 1997). Surprisingly
though, Hopkins (2011) determined the wealth of an individual did not play a significant
role in their perception of the economy. Poorer citizens tended to think of themselves in
terms of those around them and did not make significant comparisons across wealth gaps.
Reeves and Gimpel (2011) did report that individual and local circumstances had an effect
on participants’ perceptions of the national state of the economy. As most studies before
the “Great Recession” focused solely on unemployment rates, inflation rates, and the
GNP, the newer study included foreclosure rates, a variable rarely seen or tested in
economic studies. The results showed high correlations. Increases in foreclosure rates
produced an increase in negative perceptions of the overall state of the economy. The
authors hypothesized the 2008 presidential election was a referendum of the national
economy; the 2012 election may be a referendum of the local economy.
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The Reeves and Gimpel (2011) study highlights a potential shift toward personal
and community perceptions of the economy and away from national media coverage
focused on the overall national economy. Group membership through social dilemma
studies that focused on “the public good problem (in which the individual must decide
whether to contribute to a common resource) and the commons dilemma (in which the
individual must decide whether to take from a common resource)” (Brewer & Kramer,
1986, p. 543) indicated that when an issue is framed as a public goods problem (in which
the individual must decide whether to contribute to a common resource, p. 543) or a
commons dilemma (in which the individual must decide whether to take from a common
resource, p.543), there are significant differences in how individuals think about the
saliency of an issue. Part of this is based upon strong collective identities versus individual
identity positions or one’s social identity within the group (Park, 2002). Therefore,
political and economic issues and decision-making can be framed in a variety of ways that
are pertinent to communities or the individual.
Economic News and the Media Elite
If the media have the ability to frame issues in ways that make them more
prominent, then logically one might ask who chooses the frames. As discussed earlier,
some journalists erroneously frame economic information based upon a general deficiency
in understanding the issue (Worstall, 2011). But it has also been shown that political
pundits and media elites have placed political blame for and provided descriptive
impressions of the economic downturn through the way they framed the issue (Diemer,
2010; Krugman, 2011; Media Matters, 2009). Nadeau, Niemi, Fan, and Amato (1999)
acknowledge there is an intersection of economic and political evaluations generated
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through what they say is a media “expert-driven” environment. Unfortunately, this media-
dependency model relies on audiences believing economic figures and information are
“correctly reported” and expectations that the audience and experts are rationally formed
(Haller & Norpoth, 1994; Nadeau, Niemi, Fan, & Amato, 1999, p. 110;). Discovering the
nature of economic rationality is not an easy undertaking as there are disagreements as to
whether viewers cognitively process economic information using retrospective or
prospective evaluations. Norpoth (1996) stated most individuals evaluate their current
economic situation when processing information. MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson (1996)
found people apply the information in a predictive manner, focusing on expectations of
the economy.
Evidence shows that prospective evaluations of the general public “are not likely
to be derived primarily from personal experiences or directly from the objective condition
of the economy; rather, elite judgments and media accounts play a crucial role in their
development” (Nadeau, Niemi, Fan, & Amato, 1999, p. 114). The media, however, are
able to blend retrospective news, for example the Gulf War and foreign policy, with
prospective news, the economy, in effect forcing an audience to separate present
observations from future predictions. The complicated nature of economic information,
coupled with an audience's expectation that the information is reported correctly, allows
media elites to define and frame the issues. Some scholars have shown evidence
supporting the idea that political elites and the news media influence the public through
cues (Sniderman, Brody, & Tedlock, 1991) which act as heuristics or mental shortcuts
when processing information (Kuklinski & Hurley, 1994). This perhaps explains why
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some research has shown that audiences and voters form temporary and often incorrect
judgments of the economy (MacKuen, Erikson, & Stimson, 1992) and related events.
Much of the research that has focused on economic conditions in the news
concentrated on the individual or the “workingman’s” well-being. Very few examine
media coverage of corporate economics and how corporate interests and welfare work in
accordance with media reports. Kollmeyer (2004) sought to scrutinize the relationship
between corporate portrayals in the media and the traditional economic news story. A
recurring theme appeared in which the author suggested “powerful social forces, arising
from the structural relationship between the news industry and the capitalist economy,
help align the norms of economic journalism with the general interests of the corporate
community and investors” (p. 450). From this theme, four perspectives were identified in
the media coverage of the economy: the news media emphasize bad economic news, the
news media “de-politicize” the economy, the news media emphasize the views of the
elites, and the news media rely on “official sources” of information. This reinforces
Croteau’s (1998) argument that while the journalists may be perceived as the “liberal
press,” they tend to have center-right views when it comes to economic issues.
Kollmeyer (2004) argues the relationship between the power elite and national
news media has such strong ties that they share many political views with the business
community. Because of this relationship, national media outlets focus on corporations and
the issues they face while virtually ignoring the common worker and laborer. The
resources at a corporation’s disposal and the relationships cultivated over time help
explain why “official sources” in news stories are rarely union laborers and factory
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workers. The data provided evidence toward a “pro-business” economic environment in
newsrooms while nationally presenting overwhelmingly negative economic conditions.
It is apparent a relationship, arguably shaky, exists between the two fields of
economics and mass communications. And while research indicates personal experience
and observation are an important factor in people’s economic perceptions, evidence also
suggests that the media play a very crucial role in those perceptions as well. The next
logical step is to determine the narratives through which the media frame economic issues
to individuals and how those individuals accurately recall economic reporting.
Economics as an Obtrusive Issue
Due to the obtrusiveness of economic issues and the economy, the subject is one
that is highly significant to most individuals (Zucker,1978). Whether obtrusiveness is due
to heavy exposure from media coverage or an individual’s social and economic
surrounding is up for debate as there is little consensus among researchers as to which
factor has a greater impact. Horner (2008) interpreted the results from Zucker’s (1978)
agenda-setting study as he perceived an issue to be obtrusive when that issue is derived
from personal experience and observation. The greater the degree to which feelings,
attitudes, or opinions are based upon personal experience or observation of an issue
essentially lessens the media’s effects because of the strength of that relationship.
Therefore, a less obtrusive issue allows for stronger media effects.
One emerging issue is disagreement over the operationalization of obtrusiveness.
Zucker (1978) pointed out obtrusiveness is one’s direct experience with or observation of
an issue. Lang and Lang (1981) took the approach that obtrusiveness is based upon how
many people in a given population have been affected by an issue. Others have stated
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someone can be just as affected indirectly by an event or issue as someone directly
affected by it (Curtin, 2003). Horner (2008) stated additional problems arise in that only
experience or observation and the media have traditionally been used in operationalizing
obtrusiveness. That potentially excludes the influence of interpersonal communication.
The problem with potentially isolating interpersonal communication is that it may be a
fundamental aspect of one’s personal experience. This raises the question of whether or
not interpersonal communication directly or indirectly affects one’s experience or
observation.
Economic Literacy and Assessment
Research (Walstad & Rebeck, 2002) has shown that economic knowledge plays a
vital role in explaining perceptions of public opinion, making it imperative that the media
provides thoughtful and understandable analyses when explaining the economy.
Unfortunately, Krause and Granato (1998) found media reporting of economic news
makes inherent assumptions “that the information or knowledge of the respondents is
homogeneous" (Walstad & Rebeck, 2002, p. 922), and sadly, a 1992 macroeconomic
study (Walstad, 1997) showed that less than one half of adults could correctly answer the
economic test questions. More recent studies (Blendon et al., 1997; FED, 1998; Harris &
Associates, 1999) continue to indicate the population is significantly deficient in their
awareness and understanding of the economy, affecting their “capability of understanding
major economic issues” (Walstad & Rebeck, 2002, p. 924).
Understandably in their study (Walstad & Rebeck, 2002), demographics and
socioeconomic status played an important role in people’s economic literacy. Age has
been shown to be a significant contributor in a person’s understanding of economics but
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as individuals get older their age becomes less of a factor, peaking between 40 to 60 years
of age; males ranked higher than females while whites performed better than non-whites;
and as one would assume, level of education played a significant role. The results were,
however, mixed on the role that political affiliation played. The overall findings of the
research showed that higher levels of economic knowledge and literacy resulted in those
individuals’ views most likely mirroring the same views and perceptions as those of
economists on economic issues.
An interesting perspective put forth by Roos (2007) described the inherent risks
and pitfalls of the “layman’s” views of economics and economic policy. He stated that
with regard to everyday macroeconomic beliefs, most people do not have a strong grasp of
nor try to understand how the economy works. However, their ability to affect matters
and to impact issues they are not familiar with creates economic casualties based upon an
inefficient system of people who share the same incorrect attitudes and perceptions.
Blinder (1997) stated that politicians, many being non-experts themselves, are subject to
and influenced by the views of other non-experts. Birney and Shapiro (2005) took this
idea one step further and found that politicians are exposed to political exertion and direct
pressure by many non-expert, economically illiterate constituents. Consequently, voters
who do not have a basic understanding of how economics work can influence economic
and public policy through grassroots interaction, campaign contributions, and elections.
Walstad (1997) found that with regard to economic issues and positions, economic
knowledge had a significant effect on public opinion because “people will state an opinion
about an economic issue despite having little knowledge of the subject” (p. 203).
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Because of these implications, the media has a responsibility and should be aware
that the tone, language, and information used in economic news stories do indeed play a
role in how people perceive the economy. Eccles and Nohria (1992) perhaps phrased it
best when they wrote, “The way people talk about the world has everything to do with the
way the world is ultimately understood and acted in” (p. 29). Ferraro and Pfeffer (2005)
described how economic language “evokes certain associations, certain motives, and
certain norms” (p. 16) and found that simple priming was able to produce differences
among participants, triggering “competitive behavior, beliefs in the efficacy of markets,
and individual self-interest” (p. 16). One study (Lerner & Tetlock, 1999) illustrated how
economic language could alter perceptions of accountability while another (Ratner &
Miller, 2001) demonstrated how economic language spurred participant’s self-interests.
According to Neikirk (1991), the blame can be placed on both the media and the
public; he stated the media treated the economy as if it were “teaching college calculus to
bored third graders” (p. 3). In essence, the media fails the public by presenting
complicated illustrations and graphics and then does little to explain them, often offering
just a blurb and little clarification. On the flip side, the public focuses on more
entertaining stories that are dramatic and compelling, avoiding complex information
(Neikirk, 1991).
Theoretical Framework
Media Effects and Public Opinion
While the connection between economics and political science has been clearly
articulated and studied long before the advent of mass media, the field of research that
examines the relationship between economics and mass communications is not well
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developed. However, the shared association of political science may help in the
establishment of a link between media effects and economic behavior to fill the missing
gap.
The history of modern day economic study goes back almost 200 years before
media effects hypotheses were discussed. Citizens’ understanding of economics during the
1700s was rudimentary at best as few publications existed on the subject, and news
distribution was limited. After the advent of mass communication technology,
publications, reporting, and research on economics enjoyed a much wider distribution
network. Since the implementation of these developments, the complex nature of
economics has only become more multifaceted, and audiences’ understanding of the
subject has only slightly improved.
Understanding how the media shape public perception and the impact they have on
the “public’s policy priorities” (p. 16) has quickly become a growing body of research
(Cook et al., 1983). The strength of the media is focused on its ability to “construct social
reality” (McQuail, 1994, p. 331) while creating a “cognitive representation that codifies
expectations and assumptions about familiar events” (Elliott & Hayward, 1998, p. 16). In
exploring the relationship between the media and the economy, the media’s subjective
portrayal of the economy can essentially create a scenario in which journalists use the
truth to tell a false, misleading, or inaccurate story. While the economic information
within a news article is often both factual and correct, the inaccurate representation of
attributes of the economy may adversely depict economic indicators, providing a false
portrayal of those indicators.
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Exemplification theory may help us to better understand how this scenario is
possible. Multiple studies (Aust & Zillmann, 1996; Brosius, 1995; Gibson & Zillmann,
1994; Zillmann, 1999, p. 70) have shown that even the most precise reporting of base-rate
information within a story may be disrupted and misconstrued by exemplars that are not
representative or reflective of the base-rate facts provided. These exemplars tend to be
more illustrative (Koehler, 1996), both sticking out and remaining in audience’s memory
longer, and potentially detract a viewer’s understanding as to the “reality” of the situation.
Exemplification research has explored this often-times complicated relationship between
base-rate and exemplars and has tried to determine how people process the information
and the effects it has on their overall perceptions.
Exemplification
The core foundation of exemplification theory is built upon the idea that
information provided within news coverage consists of two types of figures: base-rate and
exemplars (Gibson & Zillmann, 1994). Base-rate information, while largely precise and
factual on its face, is often regarded as an inferior instrument of influence and
persuasiveness in comparison to exemplars (Brosius, 1995). Typically it is the
fundamental, numerical data that provides just basic facts. It may incorporate proportional
aspects of a news story or report on basic, relevant information that is not detailed or
expanded upon. Base-rate information was presented precisely as well as vaguely in
exemplification experiments, but in each case, base-rate data was inconsequential at best
when perceptions were formed around exemplars (Zillmann, Perkins, & Sundar, 1992).
Base-rate data does possess an informational-utility (Zillmann, 2000) that increases with
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“a) the perceived magnitude of threats and incentives, b) the perceived likelihood of their
materialization, and c) their perceived proximity in time” (Zillmann, 2002, p. 9).
One hypothetical example of base-rate is if a university newspaper simply stated
that an increase in university tuition caused 40 percent of students to attend local and
community colleges; the event within the story revolves around the 40 percent of students
now attending community college or the (unstated) 60 percent that remained enrolled. The
statement that tuition was increased provides general information and in some semblance
a direction regarding the present state of tuition and how it has potentially affected
students attending or looking to enroll at any particular university. Second, the figure 40
percent is simply a way of quantifying the percent of students affected by the increase.
Both are purely objective in their summation of the state of tuition and its effect on
students.
Exemplars, on the other hand, may consist of quotes or statements given by
sources within news reports, descriptions representing the information, or “emotion-
evoking imagery… that create perceptions and dispositions…” (Zillmann, 1999, p. 70).
They are used to highlight and illustrate certain aspects in an effort to paint a narrative for
the viewer. Through an investigation of the effectiveness of exemplars, Aust and Zillmann
(1996) found emotional exemplars, even those employing threats, were more effective
than exemplars projecting no emotion. Exemplars often are the drivers behind a news
story, and research has shown exemplars are often more persuasive on individual
perceptions than base-rate information (Brosius & Bethelt, 1994; Gibson & Zillmann,
1994; Zillmann, Gibson, Sundar, & Perkins, 1996; Zillmann, Perkins, & Sundar, 1992).
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Going back to the previous story regarding tuition increases and its effect on
students, a writer may provide impartial base-rate information about the state of higher
education in a headline such as “Rise in tuition forces 40 percent of students to attend
local community colleges.” However, the story could easily include exemplars that
contradict the headline, such as a student providing a statement saying that the tuition
increases were less dramatic and had less effect than the headline publicized. For example
the student may be quoted in the story stating, “While tuition increases do affect us and
our parents’ financial situations, I don’t know anyone who has decided to attend
community college because of it. Most of our student loans cover the costs.” The
exemplar could also easily support and reflect the base-rate information as well. The
headline tells the audience everything they need to know about the state of higher
education, but it provides little emotion or commentary about any real effects. The
exemplar, while providing no numerical data, provides the reader with a better
understanding from a student’s perspective.
Zillmann (1999) revealed that when accurate base-rate information, very similar to
the earlier Forbes story, is reported along with “qualitatively distorted, atypical cases,”
that is to say exemplars (p. 70), the result is that the base-rate’s influence is greatly
diminished. Other factors that diminish the influence of base-rate information are the
engagement of audience’s emotions through the use of exemplars, as well as other
descriptive or disproportionate messages that reduce attention down to abstract
information. While exemplars are capable of all these things, they also draw in viewers,
capture their attention, and increase the saliency of an issue (Aust & Zillmann, 1996;
Brosius, 1996; Brosius & Bathelt, 1994).
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Exemplars, however, go beyond emotional or elaborative descriptions to make a
story more accessible. While they do illustrate aspects of a story and help individuals
better understand the topic or issue (Burns,1992; Tversky & Hemenway, 1984; Zillmann
& Brosius, 2000), exemplars are not used “to show an individual experience but to
exemplify a societal problem with an individual experience” (Brosius & Bathelt, 1994, p.
49). Therefore, this conceptualization of exemplars can lead to two potential judgments
from an audience.
The first judgment states that audiences generalize the exemplars to be “typical of
all people affected by the problem” (Brosius & Bathelt, 1994, p. 94; Hamill, Wilson, &
Nisbett, 1980). The second states that audiences, when examining the problem, will
overestimate its importance (Brosius & Bathelt, 1994; Zillmann, Perkins, & Sundar,
1991). Individuals can then compare the exemplars with their own aggregately stored
direct experiences to determine how typical or atypical a situation is. While Zillmann and
Brosius (2000) stated that these comparisons, based upon personal experience, potentially
limit one’s understanding and knowledge, the assessments are generally reliable (Bates,
2010).
However, it’s not possible for individuals to carefully process all the information
they acquire. Petty, Cacioppo, Strathman, and Priester (1994) stated that if everyone paid
close attention to all the messages and signals received just in the morning alone, then “if
you ever made it out of the house in the morning, you probably would be too mentally
exhausted to do anything else!” (p. 118). Because of this, people take cognitive shortcuts,
which according to Zillmann (2002) may be understood by looking at how people process
information.
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Information Processing
Even as audiences pay attention to persuasive and informative messages, there are
incidences in which they shut off the information valve, effectively ignoring persuasive
communications. In an effort to understand the cognitive processes that are activated
under exemplification, research determined that three mechanisms exist: priming, the
availability heuristic, and the representative heuristic (Zillmann, 1999; Zillmann & Gan,
1996). Priming works under the premise that exposure to certain stimuli will produce
future evaluations or reactions (Hetherington & Rudolph, 2008). Most studies include
recency as an indicator of priming through the presumption that issues or objects recently
accessed from memory are more likely to stimulate cognitive functions (Druckman,
2004). Currently, there is an on-going debate as to whether priming is a mechanism of
accessibility (Price & Tewksbury, 1997) or an aggregate-level phenomenon (Miller &
Krosnick, 2000). Real world examples of priming include the use of stereotyping to form
quick judgments of others (Bargh, Chen, & Burrows, 1996).
Researchers (Bargh & Pietromonaco, 1982; Iyengar, Kinder, Peters, & Krosnick,
1984) have stated that “priming occurs when media attention to an issue causes people to
place special weight on it when constructing evaluations…" (Miller & Krosnick, 2000, p.
301). Higgins and King (1981) stated that specific events potentially enhance and
increase the accessibility of an issue or object within an individual’s mind, and during this
incident priming occurs (Miller & Krosnick, 2000). This “accessibility hypothesis”
(Iyengar et al., 1984; Miller & Krosnick, 2000) has been reaffirmed by Price and
Tewksbury (1997) who argued:
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First, a media message renders one or another construct applicable, and that
construct – say unemployment – is activated. By virtue of its activation, and in
direct proportion to the recency and frequency of its activation, that construct
remains temporarily accessible. Subsequently, when a person is called on to
evaluate the performance of the president, unemployment is likely to be activated.
Unless screened out as inapplicable to the evaluation, it will be used as a basis for
making a judgment of presidential performance (p. 197).
Essentially, an individual subconsciously evaluates an issue based upon that issue
being activated within their memory and not by choice. Miller and Krosnick (2000) said
audiences are “victims of the architecture of their minds” (p. 302) as information is
accessed internally and effortlessly. Reinforcing this assumption, Holbrook and Hill
(2005) stated that while the media may not be proficient in telling viewers what to think,
they are good at telling viewers what to think about while steering their attention to certain
aspects in which viewers are able to make evaluations. Therefore, individuals, instead of
using all available information, use only the bits and pieces of information that are most
accessible. Based upon Anderson’s (1983) research, this type of knowledge storage occurs
from an associative network model that is formed around the idea that information is not
stored within the memory hierarchically, but rather as nodes and links within memory
(Holbrook and Hill, 2005, p. 279). As information is “activated” within memory, the
likelihood of similar issues or nodes being activated increases. This phenomenon,
according Holbrook and Hill, leads to a spreading of activation that causes individual
changes in issue accessibility and public opinion.
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Similar to priming, the availability heuristic is focused on the ease of accessibility
of certain responses from memory, but it is less attentive to time constraints (Kahneman,
Slovic, & Tversky, 1982; Tversky & Kahneman, 1973). In some situations, individuals
may use faulty logic or imprudent reasoning because other information was not available
or accessible. At other times, the only information people have at their disposal may be
incorrect. For example, if they had never been on an elevator before and another
passenger told them that if the elevator cable were to snap, they should both jump right
before the elevator hit the ground for safety. The new rider would most likely jump based
on a judgment from the only information accessible to him, whether accurate or not.
In essence, within each individual there is a hierarchy that allows each of us to
recall memories and associations easier than others (Busselle & Shrum, 2003; Weaver,
2009). Weaver (2009) stated “the easier a thought is to remember, the more influence it
has, which means even the most disinterested of introspections are biased by the media’s
all-encompassing drive toward parsimony (p. 7). Therefore, information that is readily and
easily accessible within memory will have disproportional influence over an individual
(Zillmann & Brosius, 2000). Tversky and Kahneman (1973) found that distinctive
characteristics of a message which make information more easily remembered are “more
likely to exert greater influence on judgment than would seem rational” (Zillmann &
Brosius, 2000, p. 43).
Two particular characteristics that make messages stand out are the vividness and
salience of an issue. Under vividness, individuals experience a sort of “color commentary”
that creates a presentation where “information may be described as vivid, that is likely to
attract and hold our attention and to excite the imagination to the extent that it is (a)
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emotionally interesting, (b) concrete and imagery-provoking, and (c) proximate in a
sensory, temporal, or spatial way” (Nisbett & Ross, 1980, p. 45). Taylor and Thompson
(1982) found that during the initial processing stages, vivid information is more easily
accessed and retained and during later stages is more often remembered.
The second characteristic, salience, is conceptually related to vividness. Zillmann
and Brosius (2000) conceptualized salience “as an orienting motive that directs attention
toward specific facets of the stimulus environment, usually but not necessarily those that
have personal relevance” (p. 45). Salience focuses on the concept that the strongest
influence on judgment is those specific elements of an environment most likely to grab an
individual’s attention (Taylor & Fiske, 1978; Zillmann & Brosius, 2000). Any element
that an individual deems to have personal relevance is generally going to be more salient
within the mind.
In the context of exemplification theory, vividness and salience are more likely to
shed light on why exemplars are often more influential than base-rate information.
According to Zillmann and Brosius (2000), while base-rate information is often more
comprehensive and valid due to its quantitative, barebones nature, there is a general lack
of vividness and salience attached. Exemplars, because of their “emotion-evoking
imagery…” (Zillmann, 1999, p. 70), tend to be more persuasive, vivid, and salient.
Paivio (1971, 1986) hypothesized that exemplars are remarkably influential
because they “consist of concrete imaginable stimuli that evoke both a visual and verbal
representation in memory; whereas, summary-type descriptions of reality would only
leave a verbal memory trace because of their abstract contents” (Brosius, 2000, p. 11). In
a study focusing on the persuasive nature of statistical data versus exemplars, Limon and
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Kazoleas (2004) found individuals exposed to exemplars were significantly less likely to
produce counterarguments and cognitive responses than those individuals exposed to the
statistical data. Their research indicated that exemplars reduce critical thinking, are more
likely to be accessed throughout the decision making process, but are not as concrete or as
accurate as base-rate information.
The representativeness heuristic is the third mechanism activated under
exemplification theory and is substantially different from priming and the availability
heuristic. Under this heuristic, judgments about situations are based on the perceptions an
individual holds regarding the probability or frequency in which an event may occur. It
also focuses on individual's “assessing the likelihood that a certain object or person
belongs to a certain class of objects or persons” (Zillmann & Brosius, 2000, p. 41).
Tversky and Kahneman (1974) found that people who use a representativeness heuristic
believe quantitatively and through the use of probabilities that causes and effects will be
equal. If a statistic stated one out of every two people will divorce, someone might
reasonably expect that half of all marriages end in divorce. However, that assumption may
not be correct as some people have been married multiple times, distorting the actual
percentage.
While people may hold tight to the assumption they are correct in their judgment,
studies have shown most people do not make decisions based on probabilities or
percentages (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974; Zillmann & Brosius, 2000). In a few incidences
in which anecdotes or stories are contradictory of one another, statistics and probabilities
have been proven to have significant effects (Zillmann, 1999). According to Bates (2010),
individuals rarely process information in a systematic manner focused on data collection,
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assessment, and evaluation. Bates goes on to state that to better understand
exemplification theory, individuals often search out the simplest process through the use
of representative and availability heuristics, allowing them “to gather, sample, select, and
integrate information more quickly but not necessarily thoroughly” (p. 20). Due in part to
the influential nature of exemplars over base-rate information, Zillmann and Brosius
(2000) laid out how exemplars should be representative of the population with regards to
the phenomena being discussed.
Exemplification of Known Event Populations
Exemplification is based on the idea that events can be grouped in such a way that
each event shares similar attributes to other events within the narrative and would
therefore exemplify group attributes (Zillmann & Brosius, 2000). Each group then is
representative of the overall population being discussed. Because of this, exemplars must
be characteristic and typical of the group, or they will be deemed inappropriate because
they fail to provide reliable information regarding the group (p. 5). For instance, if most
commercial airlines struck by lightning were never affected or suffered mechanical
damage, then a story about airline safety that only focused on the one or two airline
disasters that were caused by lightning might be deemed inappropriate. The information
potentially creates a cause and effect scenario in which someone watching or reading the
story might not realize that the event, an airplane brought down by lightning, is actually
atypical or uncharacteristic of the actual group and reality. The individual may believe
that all planes struck by lightning have a high probability of crashing and therefore may
feel anxiety when flying through bad weather.
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In order to counter an exemplar that is not typical of an event or group, research
(Zillmann & Brosius, 2000) has shown the use of multiple exemplars can reduce
ambiguity and misinformation. However, greater precision is not always assured through
the use of multiple exemplars. According to the authors, arbitrary selection of exemplars
potentially leads to duplication which in turn can increase misrepresentation. In the
example of lightning strikes on an airplane, if four exemplars were arbitrarily drawn and
three focused on planes crashing because of lightning, then once again a reader may think
there is a seventy-five percent chance of being harmed by lightning. In this case the reality
of the situation does not reflect the presentation of the story. Therefore, during the
selection process Zillmann and Brosius stated that a blind sample of exemplars has a
greater capacity to ensure accuracy but still remains limited in its overall
representativeness. They termed this concept selective exemplification.
Another sampling technique used to increase the precision of representativeness
among groups is known as stratified or proportional exemplification (Zillmann & Brosius,
2000). Stratified exemplification takes an equal number of exemplars from each
subpopulation in order to have an equal representation for the sample of events. An issue
that arises with this method is that one subpopulation may be much larger than the others.
If this is the case, then misperceptions may still occur. Once again in the airline example,
if the story contains two exemplars—one airplane was not harmed after being struck by
lightning but another plane crashed after a lightening strike--then an individual may
believe airplanes have a fifty-fifty survival or crash rate based upon the information. Here
stratification has been partially successful in creating precision, but once again
misperceptions may occur. The last sampling method, proportional exemplification, tends
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to be the most accurate measure when constructing a sample of events. Under this model
exemplars are divided into subpopulations according to their group size within a
population of events. Larger subpopulations have more samples drawn than smaller
subpopulations in order to ensure greater accuracy. In this method, if less than ten percent
of lightning strikes cause airline accidents, then less than ten percent of the overall sample
will include exemplars of this nature. At this point an individual should have a better
understanding of the actual event and hopefully realize that lightning strikes on airplanes
pose very little risk.
Exemplification of Unknown Event Populations
In situations where the events of a population are unknown or there is very little
information regarding the population, then determining the representativeness of
exemplification is difficult. Because a population is not easily ascertained, it would be
arrogant to presume that audiences do not make general assumptions regarding the event.
In fact individuals are still just as likely to infer that the limited characteristics of that
event are representative of the larger whole (Higgins, 1996). Those few exemplars, even if
uncharacteristic, are viewed as typical of the group.
To diminish misconceptions, Zillmann and Brosius (2000) stated that information
conveyers should alert audiences that the exemplars are only unique to a special, singular
case; and in situations where the extent of the exemplars' prevalence is not known, the
conveyor needs to indicate the lack of knowledge surrounding the exemplar or case.
Offering qualifying information may reduce misinterpretations; however, there is a lack of
research examining these types of messages.
Personal Characteristics
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With a strong focus on testing base-rate information against exemplars,
exemplification has been surprisingly deficient in determining whether people understand
base-rate information. Lipkus, Samsa, and Rimer (2007) stated that even adults who
possessed advanced educations struggled to answer rudimentary ratio transformation
questions. If a large portion of the population lacks the general ability to process
numerical information, then the rate of misinterpretation and lack of understanding had to
be substantially high (Reyna & Brainerd, 2008). Logically, individuals who fall into a low
numeric ability category are more likely to be persuaded by stories lacking quantitative
analyses and that provide nonnumeric information (Zillmann, Callison, & Gibson, 2009).
Through the creation and testing of an arithmetic aptitude exam, the authors found
evidence that those who scored higher on the test had higher recall than those with low
scores.
From the Zillmann, Callison, and Gibson (2009) study, the concept that there may
exist a quantification heuristic was presented (Zillmann, 1999, 2002). This concept
assumes that people are able to reasonably keep track of “their memory for exemplars of
phenomena of interest and attain from that a sense of quantity and proportion” (Zillmann,
Callison, & Gibson, 2009, p. 412). This idea posited that those who possess low numeric
abilities are more likely to avoid quantitative information while seeking out descriptive
exemplars. Emotional and other distracting forms of exemplars are also more likely to
cause a person with low numeric abilities to deviate away from quantitative information
and toward more descriptive explanations. Reinforcing this finding, Reyna, Nelson, Han,
and Dieckmann (2009) found individuals who possessed high numeric ability were more
likely to accurately interpret quantitative information, leading the authors to state that
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individuals possessing lower numeric ability were more susceptible to external or
extraneous factors (p. 943).
In a follow up study, Callison, Gibson, and Zillmann (2009) tested how people’s
ability to process numeric information would affect their recall abilities of the quantitative
information. Their prediction that recall of number frequencies would be greater than that
of ratios was not supported. Their second hypothesis stating the recall of percentages
would be greater than ratio expressions was only partially supported. Once again, those
possessing low numeric abilities struggled in processing ratios while those with
intermediate and high numeric abilities had little difficulty. The verbalizing of ratios by
spelling out the numbers, i.e. three out of nine doctors, was strongly supported as an
inferior method and was largely seen as “detrimental to processing and recall” (p. 53).
In the most recent study of arithmetic aptitude, Gibson, Callison, and Zillmann
(2011) investigated how individuals with low numeric abilities were more receptive to
health care exemplars that provided personalized information than reports focusing on
impersonal quantitative specifications. Similar to the results of other arithmetic aptitude
studies (Callison, Gibson, and Zillmann, 2009; Zillmann, Callison, & Gibson, 2009),
people with low numeric abilities are more likely to be drawn toward relevant exemplars
than those who possess higher numeric abilities. This study, if examined from an applied
approach, demonstrates how the successful use of exemplars and base-rate information is
critical to accurately communicating messages to an audience.
Research Questions and Hypotheses
This study seeks to determine if the media’s reporting on economic figures and
data affects individual’s perceptions of the economic conditions and whether individuals
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are able to accurately recall base-rate information and exemplars in the context of an
economic story. Price and Tewksbury (1997) stated, “when the media distribute messages
of highly consistent design, then chronic accessibility of constructs relating to those
attributes and features might be expected" (p. 199). Therefore, the more consistent the
message is, the more likely people will remember and access that information later.
However, individuals who focus more on exemplars within a story are also much less
likely to recall substantial information from the story or message (Brosius, 2003;
Kazoleas,1993). Studies have shown the use of exemplars is more effective over base-rate
or statistical information when influencing attitudes and perceptions (Brosius & Bathelt,
1994; Limon & Kazoleas, 2004; Martin & Powers, 1980; Taylor & Thompson, 1982).
One reason is the ability of exemplars to provide more vivid images and narratives within
a story (Nisbett & Ross, 1979, 1980) while another focuses on individual’s reliance of
exemplars to provide mental and cognitive heuristics (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972).
Zillmann and Brosius (2000) stated that an overabundance or oversample of a
subpopulation that does not accurately represent or is typical of the sample of events may
cause misconceptions and misinterpretation of the event itself. Research has shown the
use of multiple exemplars can reduce ambiguity and misinformation in order to counter an
exemplar that is not typical of an event or group (Zillmann & Brosius, 2000). Therefore,
based on the exemplification literature the following hypotheses were offered:
H1a: Base-rate positive information, as well as positive exemplars, is more
likely to lead to perceptions that the overall U.S. economy is currently
strong/healthy or is in a strong recovery than will negative base-rate
information or negative exemplars.
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H1b: Representative exemplars will lead to greater accuracy in recall of base-
rate information than will non-supportive or mixed exemplars.
Logically, individuals with higher economic aptitude or literacy should be able to
correctly understand and provide answers that are more reflective of actual economic
conditions, i.e. numerical base-rate figures, as opposed to mediated exemplars that may
only tell one side of the narrative or issue (Walstad & Rebeck, 2002). Individuals with
high economic aptitude should derive their information and perceptions from the base-rate
data provided in the story or at least correctly identify those statistics and information later
(Walstad & Rebeck, 2002); whereas, those low in economic aptitude will most likely
focus on exemplars to better understand the economy (Blendon et al., 1997; FED, 1998;
Harris & Associates, 1999).
Higher economic aptitude individuals may also be more likely to answer questions
that more accurately reflect real-world indicators of the economy and/or direction of the
economy than those who score lower due to their more innate understanding of how the
economy works (Blendon et al., 1997). Part of this centers on the hypothesis that
individuals possessing higher economic literacy have the ability to separate base-rate
information they view in the news while placing less emphasis on narrative exemplars.
Those with lower aptitude scores are more likely to focus on exemplars to provide cues,
creating mental heuristics that affect the way they answer questions on the Index (Caplan,
2002; Roos, 2007).
H2a: The effect of H1 is mediated by economic knowledge such that people with
high economic literacy will have perceptions that more accurately reflect
the base-rate information showing the overall U.S. economy is currently
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getting stronger (recovering) or weaker (remaining stagnate or sliding
back), while those with low economic literacy will tend to be overly
influenced by positive and negative exemplars.
H2b: The effect of H1 is mediated by economic knowledge such that people with
high economic literacy will have better recall of factual data regardless of
the representativeness of exemplars, while those with low economic
literacy will tend to be overly influenced by exemplars.
Recent empirical findings into exemplification have explored how individuals'
arithmetic aptitude affects their ability to understand and accurately recall base-rate
information (Gibson, Callison, & Zillmann, 2011). According to the authors, “it was
concluded that variation in arithmetic ability is associated with distinct differences in
information processing…” (Callison, Gibson, & Zillmann, 2011, p. 6). While these
findings are relevant in understanding how people process numeric and quantitative
information, there is little research into content specific levels of aptitude such as
economics. Blendon et al., (1997) stated the population is significantly deficient in their
knowledge of the economy, hampering their understanding of major economic issues.
This presents an issue in determining whether arithmetic ability or economic literacy play
a more dominant role in influencing an individual’s ability to accurately recall economic
base-rate information correctly.
R1: Under varying conditions, does either arithmetic aptitude or economic
literacy have a more dominant influence over an individual’s evaluations as
to the health/state of the economy or ability to accurately recall economic
base-rate information?
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As Walstad and Rebeck (2002) found, demographics do play a substantial role in
peoples’ perceptions of the economy. Age, ethnicity, gender, and level of education were
all significant factors in people’s economic literacy which in turn affected their economic
outlook. However, one interesting factor that produced mixed results was political
affiliation. As discussed earlier, partisanship does have a positive impact on perceptions of
the economy when an individual identifies with the party or official in office (Gerber &
Huber, 2010). The results, however, are inconclusive as to whether peoples' economic
literacy and political affiliation have any significant effects on how they perceive or
process economic information.
R2: Under varying conditions, what role does political ideology have over an
individual’s perception of the overall strength of the economy?
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CHAPTER III
METHODOLOGY
Overview
The research within this paper focused specifically on answering three questions:
1). Are individuals affected by base-rate information or the exemplars within economic
news stories, 2). What effect does this have on how individuals perceive the state of the
economy and their ability to accurately recall information, and 3). Do personal
characteristics determine how audiences are influenced by base-rate information versus
the use of exemplars in news stories? The study implemented an experiment to determine
how individuals were affected by economic base-rate information and exemplars within
the media. The objective of this inquiry is to try to establish if the way the media reports
economic news affects how individuals perceive the strength of the general state of the
economy, as well as whether the economic aptitude of individuals affects their
perceptions. The overall goal of the study will potentially provide evidence illustrating the
need for the media to be more careful and meticulous in their presentation of economic
news and that individuals should be more knowledgeable regarding how the economy
works.
Research Participants
An online sampling firm, The Sample Network, asked a panel of 5,553 participants
from its network to take part in this experiment. They distributed the link to the study’s
website through email at which time 721 respondents within the panel began the study
with 550 completing it. The study had an overall response rate of 10 percent. At that point
66 participants were removed for a number of reasons. The first factor that automatically
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disqualified participants was if they skipped any question throughout the study. Although
they may have completed the study, they were cut entirely from the dataset if they left
blank answers. Part of the rationale for this is based upon the robust number of
participants within the research. Two of the measures focused on individuals’ aptitude and
while logically a missed question might be the same as an incorrect answer, it would
might also affect the individual’s placement within high and low levels of economic and
arithmetic literacy. Because the study exceeded the number of participants needed, it was
better to eliminate those who did not answer every question then to systematically use
case-wise or list-wise deletion and allow them to remain.
The second disqualifier was based upon the length of time it took each participant
to complete the study. The Qualtrics system provided the exact time each participant
began and ended the experiment. Based upon both those numbers, Qualtrics estimated the
average completion time was 24 minutes. In order to potentially eliminate respondents
who hastily speed through the questionnaire, a time-stamp was provided to determine the
length of time each respondent took. In determining how to eliminate from the sample
those who took too long and those who did not spend enough time on the study the
Qualtrics system indicated that examining the outliers was the best tool. The results
showed almost 95 percent of the outliers within the study took less than 16 minutes
reading and answering the questions or spent more than an hour on it. While this does not
guarantee successfully eliminating all those who rush through without providing
thoughtful answers, it does help to identify cases where that incident may have occurred.
From this, the final overall sample consisted of approximately 484 participants.
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Only participants 18 and older were allowed to participate with the largest age
group falling between 55 and 64 years of age (33.9%), closely followed by those 35 to 54
years of age (33.7%). Males made up 38 percent of the sample while 62 percent were
female. Fifty-five percent of the participants had a high school education to some college
while 45 percent had at least a two-year college degree or more.
When asked about political affiliation and ideology 38 percent of respondents
stated they affiliated more with the Democratic party, 34 percent affiliated with the
Republican party, 21 percent stated they were independents, only two percent felt they
were more aligned with the Libertarian party, while the remaining five percent said other
or did not wish to say. Among the participants 19 percent identified themselves as liberal
to very liberal; 55 percent identified themselves as left of center, moderate, or right of
center; and 26 percent identified themselves as conservative to very conservative.
The majority of respondents (87.4%) identified themselves as “white/Caucasian,”
followed by “African-American” (7.2%), and “Hispanic” (3.1%). California and Florida
were tied for the top state from which participants were drawn at 8.3 percent. Next was
New York at 8.1 percent and Texas at 6.8 percent, with Pennsylvania rounding out the top
five at 5.6 percent.
Experimental Procedures for Testing Economic Communications
Although aspects of exemplification are rooted in the idea that recently
encountered conditions or events are aggregated and accessible in one’s memory, there are
both advantages and limitations when using experiments. In defense of experimental
methods, Morton and Williams (2008) stated that it is understood that there is “no perfect
or true experiment” (p. 5), but that choosing a particular methodology should be
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determined by the research questions being asked. Addressing concerns of validity, the
authors posit that experimentalists are criticized for manipulating variables and controlling
the environment, and yet on the other side, observational researchers, in deciding what
measures to observe and study, manipulate the measurement choices. Essentially, the
simple decision of choosing and ignoring different factors is a control technique used by
all scientists. Other researchers (Beck, 2000; Campbell, 1957; Kinder & Palfry, 1993;
McGraw & Hoekstra, 1994) have rigorously defended the use of experiments observing
that external validity is “not about whether the experiment resembles the hypothesized”
(Morton & Williams, 2008, p. 11) population, but “is really about the robustness of these
experiments across different formulations” (p. 11).
This experiment employed a 2 (high economic aptitude x low economic aptitude)
x 2 (base-rate directionally positive x base-rate directionally negative) x 3 (exemplar
representative x exemplar non-representative x exemplar mixed) factorial design. In
addition, a 14-question economic aptitude test was provided, the 10-question quantitative
literacy exam, a five-item questionnaire regarding the accuracy in recall of the news story,
and 12 questions regarding overall perceptions of the economy, along with
seven basic demographic questions. The within-subjects design portion of the experiment
encompassed six different variations of how the material was circulated. Each version
incorporated one of the following distributions:
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Figure 3.1: Within-Subjects Design
In sum, there were 36 different versions of the experiment requiring at least 360
participants to adequately power the study (Ellis, 2010). Participants in the experiment
always read one of the stimulus articles at the beginning of the study. After each
participant read the stimulus, a random rotation of block 2 that included economic
assessment, arithmetic ability, and economic perceptions was incorporated within the
questionnaire, controlling for order effects. Block 3, stimulus recall, always appeared in
the same order following block 2. The reason stimulus recall was not part of the
randomization of block 2 was to ensure that everyone answered those questions relatively
within the same time frame. If one group of participants were able to take it earlier than
another group, it would place the second group at a comparative disadvantage, adding a
contaminant to the experiment. Demographic questions always concluded the study.
Each base-rate story included three exemplar related manipulations. The first,
exemplar-representative, included three exemplars that accurately reflected either the
positive or negative base-rate information, with one exemplar not supporting the base-rate.
Therefore, the exemplars “exemplify” or provide support for an accurate account of what
Within-Subjects Design
Block 1 Block 2 Block 3 Block 4
Stimulus Economic Assessment
Arithmetic Ability
Economic Perceptions
Stim Recall Demographics
Stimulus Economic Assessment
Economic Perceptions
Arithmetic Ability
Stim Recall Demographics
Stimulus Arithmetic Ability
Economic Perceptions
Economic Assessment
Stim Recall Demographics
Stimulus Arithmetic Ability
Economic Assessment
Economic Perceptions
Stim Recall Demographics
Stimulus Economic Perceptions
Economic Assessment
Arithmetic Ability
Stim Recall Demographics
Stimulus Economic Perceptions
Arithmetic Ability
Economic Assessment
Stim Recall Demographics
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is being reported. The second manipulation, exemplar non-representative used the same
base-rate information but consisted of three exemplars that contrasted and did not reflect
the numerical economic information, with one exemplar supporting the base-rate. In
effect, the exemplars create a dynamic in which it appeared either the base-rate
information or the exemplars were incorrect. The last manipulation, exemplar mixed, is
comprised of two representative and two non-representative exemplars. Including this
manipulation helped determine what effects might occur regarding overall perceptions of
the story and base-rate when exemplars contradicted one another.
Experimental Design (2x2x3)
High Assessment
Base-Rate Positive Base-Rate Negative Exemplar Representative Exemplar Non-representative Exemplar Mixed
Low Assessment
Base-Rate Positive Base-Rate Negative
Exemplar Representative Exemplar Non-representative Exemplar Mixed
Figure 3.2: Experimental Design
Procedure
While the use of a laboratory would offer greater control over participants and the
environment, a field or Internet experiment offers greater potential for sampling larger,
more diverse audiences. Because this study is interested in looking at how the average
American understands and interprets economic information, an online-based experiment
provides more robustness than a laboratory experiment. Even as ethical criticisms exist
stating that participants in field experiments are not aware they are being manipulated
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(Wantchekon, 2003), survey experiments in political science have become more popular
and accepted among social scientists (Sniderman, Brody, & Tetlock, 1991; Sullivan,
Pierson, & Marcus, 1978).
While there are a variety of limitations in using online survey experiments, one
revolves around sampling issues of the population. Some (Dillman, 2000; Stanton, 1998)
have stated that little is known about the characteristics of a sample and generally cannot
be verified before or after a study begins. Much of the demographic information relies
heavily on self-reporting from the participants. Others (Andrews, Nonnecke, & Preece,
2003; Couper, 2000) say a true random sample cannot be generated because not all
eligible participants within a population have an active email address. One group of
researchers (Konstan, Rosser, Ross, Stanton, & Edwards, 2005) found that while this is a
legitimate concern, response rates from online survey experiments is generally as good, if
not better, than traditional mail surveys (Mehta & Sivadas, 1995; Stanton, 1998;
Thompson, Surface, Martin, Sanders, 2003). Self-selection is often another problem in the
use of online surveys (Stanton, 1998; Witmer, Colman, & Katzman, 1999). However, for
research that is less concerned with using probability samples and more focused on
establishing causation, then self-selection becomes less of an issue (Wright, 2005). As
stated earlier, this study is not concerned with looking at special populations or
demographics within the United States. It is designed to examine how the general
population at large processes economic information. Therefore, sampling issues that may
complicate or limit online survey experiments are less likely to pose a problem within the
findings of this study.
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Using the sampling survey company, The Sample Network, participants were
randomly assigned one of the twelve versions of the experiment to complete and
compensated for their responses. After a participant received the email, he or she was
asked to read a news story regarding a municipality’s local economy. Following the story,
participants were asked to answer the 14-question economic assessment quiz, the 10-item
arithmetic aptitude test, and the six-item measure of economic perceptions. The order was
rotated depending on the version, but all participants were asked to complete each section.
Following the assessment and index, all participants were asked five questions regarding
the story in order to measure recall as well as demographic questions about themselves.
Participants were not told in advance they were taking part in an experiment, only that
they were helping researchers understand the relationship of the media and economy.
Upon completion, they were provided the contact information of the primary
investigator in order to learn more about the project. The questionnaire was not be timed,
but participants were not allowed to go back and reread any previous information. Their
answers were based on recall and perceptions of the story, so allowing respondents to go
back and review the material would defeat the purpose of the study.
Stimulus Material
The news stories were designed and written to look as if each were taken directly
from a daily newspaper. The conceptualization of exemplars for each story are based upon
studies (Burns, 1992; Mervis & Rosch, 1981; Zillmann, 1999) that have measured
exemplars as direct encounters or personal experience to an issue, event, or happening.
This definition is also in line with research (Horner, 2008; Lang & Lang, 1981; Zucker,
1978) stating that obtrusive issues such as the economy are highly salient in people’s
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minds when those issues are derived from personal experience, observations, or events in
which a given population is affected by the issue. Therefore, exemplars used must reflect
how the issue of the economy has directly affected the stated individual’s life.
In the first version, the base-rate information was built upon the positive
favorability regarding a recent Consumer Confidence survey. For the first story, exemplar
representative, three exemplars in the form of direct quotes and paraphrased statements
were used to reflect positive viewpoints mirroring the base-rate information. Any of the
following exemplars could be positive or negative depending on the version. One
exemplar was from the standpoint of a local business owner, the second was from a recent
college graduate, next was a statement provided from a local commercial contractor, and
finally the fourth was a quote from a bank president regarding personal and commercial
finance. Three of the four exemplars in version one positively supported the base-rate
information while one did not (see Appendix A, p. 130).
In the second story, the base-rate information remained the same, but all three
exemplars were non-representative in a negative direction in their reporting. The three
quotes or statements used the exact same sources as before; however, the reporting of
exemplars in this story runs completely contrast to the base-rate information provided.
The type of information provided in each statement given was roughly identical to the
aforementioned story. The only difference was the information was no longer reflective of
the numbers or statistics provided. For example, in the exemplar representative story a
leader in the home-building industry might say growth in their industry has forced his
business to expand and to increase hiring, in essence supporting the base-rate. However,
in the non-supportive story that same business leader would state their industry is still
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suffering from the poor economic environment, and he’s had to reduce the number of
employees on his payroll (see Appendix A, p. 138).
The third story was a mix of exemplars using both positive and negative
statements from the first two. The positive base-rate information remained the same;
however, now two of the statements were representative and two were non-representative.
This scenario seeks to achieve a balanced approach among exemplars, as well as helping
to determine if stories that provide two dissimilar sides are significantly different from
those that only offer one. It helps to determine if individuals when presented with
conflicting exemplars will consciously or subconsciously return to the original base-rate
information when asked about their perceptions of the economy (see Appendix A, p. 146).
The second version reversed the original economic climate in which the economic
indicator of unemployment is negatively affecting the economy. In the first story (fourth
overall), the focus is once again on exemplar-representative attributes. The base-rate
information is reported in a negative direction where three of the four exemplars reflected
the direction of those numbers and statistics. The exemplars used for this story were
completely identical to the exemplars used in version one-story two of the study. As those
statements originally went against the base-rate, they are now reflective of the base-rate
(see Appendix A, p. 154).
Overall, the fifth story is much like the fourth one. Whereas, the base-rate
information has now changed in a negative direction, the positive exemplars from the first
story were now non-representative in this one. The three exemplars were non-
representative in a positive direction in their reporting. While the exemplar narratives are
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positive the strength of the economy, it was opposite of the base-rate making it non-
representative (see Appendix A, p. 162).
The sixth story was almost completely identical to the third story with the
exception of having the base-rate information changed. The quotes and statements are
identical, and they reflect exemplars in both a positive and negative direction of the base-
rate information, making the entire premise balanced (see Appendix A, p. 170).
Figure 3.3: Story Manipulation
Each story had four exemplars embedded following the initial base-rate figure.
The four exemplars categorized as 1) small business, 2) employment, 3) home sales, and
4) personal finance were either positive or negative, representative or non-representative
depending on the version. However, in order to avoid the possibility that any one of those
exemplars could affect someone’s perception of the economy, the positive (or negative)
exemplar was rotated throughout each story version. Therefore, each story manipulation
actually had four different versions in order to control for this potential confounding
variable. Once the rotation was completed there were 24 different versions of the stories.
75 percent optimistic on
Consumer Confidence Index
75 percent pessimistic on
Consumer Confidence Index
Representative
Positive
Non-
Representative
Negative
Mixed
Representative
Negative
Non-
Representative
Positive
Mixed
1 + - + 1 - + +
2 + - - 2 - + -
3 + - + 3 - + +
4 - + - 4 + - -
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Measures
Story Version and Manipulation
The six manipulations of the economic news stories had an almost even
distribution of participants. Both the “Positive base-rate: Representative exemplars” and
“Positive base-rate: Mixed exemplars” stories had 79 participants or 16.3 percent of the
total sample. “Positive base-rate: Non-representative exemplars” and “Negative base-rate:
Non-representative exemplars” stories had 80 participants or 16.5 percent of the total
sample. “Negative base-rate: Representative exemplars” and “Negative base-rate: Mixed
exemplars” stories followed with 83 participants each or 17.1 percent.
These manipulations were then broken down into three separate categories in order
to better determine what role, if any, the base-rate and exemplars had about economic
perceptions. The first group, base-rate, incorporated all directionally positive stories into
one level (positive base-rate: representative: non-representative: mixed) and all
directionally negative stories (negative base-rate: representative: non-representative:
mixed) into another. The positive level had an n = 238 (49.2%) while the negative level
had an n = 246 (50.8%). See figure 3.4.
Base-rate Positive
Base-rate Negative 75 percent optimistic 75 percent pessimistic
n = 238 n = 246
Representative Positive
Non-Representative
Negative Mixed
Representative Negative
Non- Representative
Positive Mixed
Figure 3.4: Base-rate Manipulation
The second group, exemplars, was constructed by taking the stories and dividing
them into categories based upon the positive, negative, or mixed exemplars used. This
category incorporated all positive exemplars into a level (positive base-rate: representative
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exemplars & negative base-rate: non-representative exemplars), all negative exemplars
(positive base-rate: non-representative exemplars & negative base-rate: representative
exemplars), and finally mixed exemplars (positive base-rate: mixed exemplars & negative
base-rate: mixed exemplars). The positive level had an n = 159 (32.9%); the negative level
had an n = 163 (33.7%); the mixed level had an n = 162 (33.5%). See figure 3.5.
Positive Exemplars
Negative Exemplars
Mixed Exemplars n = 159
n = 163
n = 162
Positive base-rate: Representative
exemplars
Negative base-rate: Non-
representative exemplars
Positive base-rate: Non-
representative exemplars
Negative base-rate:
Representative exemplars
Positive base-rate:
Mixed exemplars
Negative base-rate:
Mixed exemplars
Figure 3.5: Exemplar Manipulation
The final category was based upon the representativeness of the exemplars in
regards to the base-rate, essentially, how reflective or non-reflective the exemplars were to
the base-rate information. Similar to the exemplars group, this category was broken down
into three levels: representative (positive base-rate: representative exemplars & negative
base-rate: representative exemplars), non-representative (positive base-rate: non-
representative & negative base-rate: non-representative), and mixed (positive base-rate:
mixed exemplars & negative base-rate: mixed exemplars). The representative level had an
n = 162 (33.5%), the negative level had an n = 160 (33.1%), and the mixed level had an n
= 162 (33.5%). See figure 3.6.
Representative Exemplars
Non-representative Exemplars
Mixed Exemplars
n = 162
n = 160
n = 162
Positive base-rate:
Representative exemplars
Negative base-rate:
Representative exemplars
Positive base-rate: Non-
representative exemplars
Negative base-rate:
Non-representative
exemplars
Positive base-rate:
Mixed exemplars
Negative base-rate:
Mixed exemplars
Figure 3.6: Representative Manipulation
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Economic Literacy
After reading each story, participants were given three sets of questions. The first
set measured a participant’s economic assessment and literacy. The Test of Economic
Literacy (TEL) is widely regarded as one of the most thoroughly examined and accurate
measures for economic literacy in the United States (Soper-Walstad, 1987; Walstad &
Rebeck, 2002; Walstad & Soper, 1988). The exam is a standardized test focused on four
economic concept clusters – fundamental, microeconomic, macroeconomic, and
international - that provides a comprehensive assessment of economic literacy (Walstad &
Soper, 1988, p. 251).
In 1999, the National Council on Economic Education (NCEE) commissioned
Harris Interactive to evaluate adult understanding of basic economics, and in 2005 the
NCEE asked Harris Interactive to conduct a follow up study (Harris Interactive, 2005).
The 2005 online study consisted of 3,512 U.S. adults and took on average 14 minutes to
complete. The average grade was a 70 while one-third of adults scored above average with
an A or B. Participants were given a 24-question quiz covering basic economics and
personal finance questions. The following is a breakdown of the TEL: five questions
regarding economics and the consumer; five questions focusing on factors pertaining to
production; four questions over money, interest rates, and inflation; six questions covering
government and trade in economics, with the final four questions examining personal
finance. According to the NCEE (2005),
The content standards covered by the quiz reflect the essential principles of
economics. The standards encompass concepts such as scarcity, allocation of
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goods and services, role of competition, role of money, and specialization and
trade. In a global economy, understanding trade has particular resonance (p. 6).
The initial NCEE (2005) findings were reaffirmed by Tabesh & Schultz (2007),
indicating that gender plays a significant role in economic literacy. The NCEE study
(2005) in turn reaffirmed the findings of Walstad and Rebeck (2002) that showed age,
gender, ethnicity, and level of education were all significant factors in basic economic
understanding. Unfortunately, the NCEE study did not ask questions about participants’
political affiliation. Once again this variable and its role in the area of economic literacy
and economic perceptions remains unresolved (Walstad & Rebeck, 2002).
Five of the original questions within the NCEE study were eliminated as the
subject matter concerning international economic issues might introduce confounding
variables into the experiment. Because the focus of the experiment was strictly on the
overall U.S. economy, any variable that potentially introduced outside or international
economic factors might result in skewed results. In addition, five of the original questions
within the NCEE study were removed as results showed those questions were correctly
answered by more than 90 percent of the respondents, with of three of those questions
correctly answered by more than 95 percent. These were excluded to further prevent
survey/respondent fatigue as research (Krosnick, 1999) has shown excessively long and
complicated surveys lead to a deterioration of the quality of data.
Economic literacy was based upon a 14-item multiple choice test in which
participants’ answers were recoded from their original choice into a new variable where a
one meant the answer was correct or a zero for incorrect. These scores were then summed
together in a new variable, with a third variable reporting their overall average. Economic
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literacy was almost evenly split with roughly half of the participants scoring a seven or
higher (M = 7.25, SD = 2.70). It was then divided into categories of high or low based
upon a person’s score. When recoding into a new variable, mean scores that were seven or
fewer were categorized into low economic literacy while participants with scores greater
than seven were considered high in economic literacy. An ANOVA was run to determine
if a difference existed between high and low economic literacy in order to validate
transforming participants’ scores into a categorical variable. The test indicated the two
levels were significantly different from each other, F1, 487 = 972.75, p < .01, ηp2 = .67.
Those in the low group represented 51.7 percent of the overall sample.
Arithmetic Aptitude
The arithmetic aptitude test was developed by Zillmann et al. (2009) in order to
measure how individuals' arithmetic ability influences their ability to process media
messages. According to the authors, the test “is the only one scale - sensitive to all aspects
of arithmetic competence, including the ability to convert frequencies to percentages and
ratios” (Callison, Gibson, & Zillmann, 2011, p. 5). It consists of 10 numerically-based
questions using a mix of percentages, ratios, currency, and narratives i.e. “less than a
quarter”. The test has been shown to affect individuals’ assessments of risk and retrieval
of statistical information based upon their placement of arithmetic ability (high or low).
Arithmetic aptitude followed the same structure and calculation that economic
literacy did. Arithmetic aptitude was based upon the 10-item multiple choice test in which
participants’ answers were recoded from their original choice into a new variable where a
one meant the answer was correct or a zero for incorrect. These scores were then summed
together into a new variable. Participants scored slightly higher in arithmetic aptitude than
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they did in economic literacy. More than half of the participants scored a five or higher (M
= 5.80, SD = 2.45). Like economic literacy, arithmetic aptitude was then divided into
categories of high or low based upon a person’s average score. When recoding into a new
variable, mean scores that were six or fewer were categorized into low arithmetic aptitude
while participants with scores greater than six were considered high in arithmetic aptitude.
Once again an ANOVA was run on high and low arithmetic aptitude to determine if
differences existed once it was transformed into a categorical variable. The results from
the test showed the two levels were significantly different, F1, 487 = 1025.35, p < .01, ηp2 =
.68. Those in the low group represented 54.5 percent of the overall sample.
Political Ideology
Using the single-item measure political affiliation, i.e. Democrat, Republican, or
Independent, as an independent variable does not provide a reliable estimate of where
individuals truly lie along the political spectrum, nor does it offer any potential variance as
to where they feel they are on both broad and specific issues. Research (Jost, Federico, &
Napier, 2009) suggests party affiliation reflects political heuristics and short cuts that do
not truly reflect a person’s political views. A better measure for this study was to ask
participants where they felt they belonged along the political ideology spectrum.
According to Jost, Federico, and Napier (2009) “ideology predicts citizens’ general value
orientations” (p. 324) and is “among the strongest and most consistent predictors of
political preferences” (p. 324). Three seven-point measures were asked regarding their
political beliefs.
The first question focused on their general political ideology where a one was very
liberal, a two was liberal, a three was left-of-center, four was moderate, a five was right-
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of-center, a six was conservative, and a seven was very conservative. On average, people
indicated they were fairly moderate (M = 4.19, SD = 1.62). Using the same scale for fiscal
and social ideology, most respondents indicated they were fiscally moderate (M = 4.34,
SD = 1.54) as well as socially moderate (M = 4.08, SD = 1.68). This study however only
examined ideology using the single-item measure of overall political ideology.
Economic Perceptions
The Consumer Sentiment Index is considered to be one of the top consumer
economic indicators as it reliably gauges the personal experience of an individual with
their overall perception of the economy (Ladner & Wlezien, 2007). The authors found the
Index to be an accurate and relatively predictive tool because of its questions regarding
consumer opinions on unemployment, inflation, perceptions of the overall U.S. economy,
and the prices of goods and services, such as gas. One of the more important variables
they point out is how the index looks at both present conditions and future perceptions
twelve months out. While this study is not trying to determine consumer confidence, it is
attempting to ascertain participants’ current and future perceptions of the economy. The
Index uses a mix of Likert-type scale questions and “best-guess” percentage questions.
For this study only a few of the questions from the Consumer Sentiment Index will be
used in order to measure economic perceptions. See Appendix B, p. 178 for question
wording and response options.
In order to measure the economic perceptions of each individual, six questions
with Likert-type scale answer choices were asked regarding different aspects of the
economy. Each questions asked the individual to rank from one to seven a person’s
opinion of the economy. A one was considered to be bad or worse off where a seven was
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considered to be excellent or better off. The highest a person could rank the economy was
a 42, with the lowest a seven. After calculating the overall average of the six questions,
the respondents indicated the economy was roughly unchanged or neutral (M = 3.30, SD =
1.15). Using the same scale measures, respondents were asked how confident they were in
their given answer. A one represented “not very confident” where a seven meant they
were “very confident.” While economic perceptions were slightly less than positive and
more in neutral territory, two-thirds (67 percent) of individuals when asked about the
certainty of their answer felt confident in their perception regarding the current state of the
economy (M = 4.71, SD = 1.34).
Base-rate Recall
Participants were asked to remember and then indicate along a sliding scale what
percent of the public in the article had positive perceptions of the economy and what
percent had negative perceptions. The rationale behind asking all participants both of
these questions was based upon the actual base-rate number. Half of the respondents were
in conditions where 75 percent of the population had positive perceptions; whereas, the
other half were in conditions where 75 percent of the population had negative perceptions.
Just asking what percent had positive perceptions would have created a host of problems,
introducing at least one confounding variable. In the positive situation half of the
respondents would only have to remember the actual base-rate number; whereas, the other
half would need to mentally convert the percentage and then flip the positive 75 percent
into a negative 25 percent. And while this could potentially be controlled by asking the
contrasting side of the question, the ultimate goal of this study is not to see if people are
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able to accurately convert numbers but to see if they can accurately recall the base-rate
information.
The accuracy of recall was based upon two questions that were combined to form
a single-item measure. In order to create the singe-item measure, both questions were
asked, but only one question was used depending on the story version a participant was in.
The rationale behind this is that both scores could offset one another if taken as an
average. For example, if a participant in the positive base-rate manipulation (75%) stated
that 75 percent of the people were optimistic and then when asked what percent was
pessimistic and gave an answer of 25 percent then the average would be 50 percent,
indicating they were moderately accurate instead of 100 percent accurate. On the flipside
by asking the question to all participants we would create another troublesome issue.
Those in the positive base-rate manipulation when asked about optimism would be correct
if they said 75 percent. However, those in the negative base-rate manipulation would also
be correct if they said 25 percent. Therefore, it is necessary to divide participants into
separate groups in order to judge their accuracy.
Respondents in the positive base-rate versions were separated from the others and
scored based upon the percentage they gave. Those within 10 points in either direction of
75 percent, i.e. 65 to 85, were considered to be high in accuracy. Percentages at least 10
but no more than 25, i.e. 86 to 100 or 50-74, points off were considered to have moderate
accuracy. Anyone answering less than 50 was low in accuracy. Respondents in the
negative base-rate versions were calculated the same way; only their answers were taken
from the negative perception question. Combining these two questions into a one single-
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item measure makes calculating the accuracy in recall more consistent and removes the
confounding variable.
Data Analysis
It should be noted that one limiting factor of the study may be due to effects of an
overpowered experimental design. The research called for 360 participants, but more than
480 individuals completed the study, potentially affecting interaction and main effect
results. However, Cohen’s (1988) seminal study regarding effect sizes stated that effect
sizes between .01 to .059, while considered small, were acceptable. Any effect size less
than .01 was viewed as trivial, whereas any number greater than .06 was deemed to have a
medium to large effect size. Therefore, while parts of the study may indeed be
overpowered, the effect sizes are still within an acceptable range.
To determine if the population means are different in order to satisfy the research
hypotheses ANOVAs were used primarily throughout the statistical analyses. In almost all
of the tests two or three independent variables were measured using economic perceptions
or recall as the dependent variable. The manipulation of economic news stories is
composed of four sets of independent variables: news story, base-rate, exemplars,
representativeness.
For hypotheses 1a and 1b, eight separate ANOVAs were run on each of these IVs,
with economic perceptions and recall of information as the dependent variables. More
specifically, each IV was analyzed independently of the other three IVs on each of the two
dependent variables. Each test looked at the relationship between one independent
variable and one dependent variable. For hypotheses 2a and 2b, a second independent
variable, economic literacy, was introduced and analyzed using the same method in H1a
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and H1b. In these cases there were two independent variables examined on each of the
dependent variables respectively.
R1 employed the same measures as those in the first two hypotheses and once
again added another independent variable, arithmetic aptitude, to the analysis. Here an
ANOVA was run using the three IVs and each of the two dependent variables separately.
The last research question, R2, focused only on the group of independent variables found
in the economic news story set, the independent variable, political ideology, and the
dependent variable, economic perceptions. The dependent variable recall was not
examined as there is little literature indicating that political affiliation or ideology affects a
person’s ability to accurately recall or remember specific information. Figure 3.7
illustrates how the data was analyzed within the study.
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Figure 3.7: Graphical representation of the method employed to measure the independent and dependent variables. Variables pointing directly to “overall news story”, “economic perceptions”, and “recall” are how they were categorized and measured. Independent variables pointing to the predictor lines were mediators
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CHAPTER IV
RESULTS
H1a. Overall Economic Perceptions: Base-rate positive information, as well as positive
exemplars, will lead to perceptions that the overall U.S. economy is currently
strong/healthy or is in a strong recovery than will negative base-rate information or
negative exemplars.
Early exemplification studies have shown that when exemplars are representative
or reflective of the base-rate in a news article, then overall recall of the base-rate
information is greater (Zillmann, Perkins, & Sundar, 1992). However, there is little
research as to whether base-rate and exemplars potentially affect how individuals view a
broader topic touched upon within the story. The story manipulations in this study use the
economy as the main topic. However, the dependent variable economic perceptions is not
based upon how the participants perceive the economy of the town featured in the story
but upon how they see the overall health of the U.S. economy. Essentially, can factors
within a news story affect perceptions on a much broader scope?
Figure 3.7 (p. 71) provides a map that illustrates how many of the following
analyses were run. Participants in story one (M = 3.61, SD = 1.09), story three (M = 3.43,
SD = 1.28), and story five (M = 3.49, SD = 1.17) all perceived the economy as doing
better or was better off than those in story two (M = 3.10, SD = 1.06), story four (M =
3.05, SD = .98), and story six (M = 3.15, SD = 1.25). The main effect of story type on the
economic perceptions variable produced F5, 478 = 3.45, p < .05, ηp2 = .04, supporting
hypothesis one. The graph below illustrates how base-rate and exemplars affect those
perceptions.
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Figure 4.1: Economic perceptions across story manipulations
A post hoc analysis across the different manipulations provided the first indication
that exemplars may be causing the significant difference among the stories and economic
perceptions. Figure 4.2 shows how the change of exemplars within the articles affects
overall economic perceptions.
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Base-rate Positive Mean Difference Base-rate Negative Mean Difference
Article Representative
exemplars
Non-representative
exemplars
Mixed exemplars
Representative exemplars
Non-representative
exemplars
Mixed exemplars
Positive Ba
se-‐rate Representative
exemplars ___ 0.51** 0.18 0.56** 0.12 0.46**
Non-representative exemplars
-0.51** ___ -0.33 0.05 -0.39* -0.05
Mixed exemplars -0.18 0.33 ___ 0.38* -0.06 0.29
Negative Ba
se-‐rate Representative
exemplars -0.56** -0.05 -0.38* ___ -0.44* -0.09
Non-representative exemplars
-0.12 0.39* 0.06 0.44* ___ 0.35*
Mixed exemplars -0.46** 0.05 -0.29 0.09 -0.35* ___
*p < .05. **p < .01 Figure 4.2: Economic Perceptions by Story Version
The independent variable “exemplars,” created from the “story” variable, helped in
reinforcing this initial find. Exemplars produced a main effect of F2, 481 = 7.10, p < .01, ηp2
= .03 on economic perceptions (see figure 4.3). A Student-Newman-Keuls post hoc
revealed those in the positive exemplars (M = 3.55, SD = 1.13) condition held more
favorable economic perceptions among participants while those in the negative (M = 3.08,
SD = 1.01) and mixed (M = 3.29, SD = 1.25) exemplars condition tended to possess more
pessimistic outlooks on the economy. These results support hypothesis one.
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Figure 4.3: Economic perceptions across exemplar conditions
The next analysis lends credence to the strong effect of exemplars on participants’
perceptions but negates the effects of base-rate data. There was no main effect of the
variable “base-rate” on overall economic views (F1, 482 = 2.12, p > .05, ηp2 = .004). Neither
of the two levels, base-rate positive (M = 3.38, SD = 1.15) or base-rate negative (M =
3.23, SD = 1.15), gave any indication they affected perceptions positively or negatively.
While the first analysis of “story version” on economic perceptions indicated
promising results in support of the first hypothesis, a deeper examination showed the
hypothesis was only partially supported. One half of the hypothesis was supported as the
variable “exemplars” did have a significant effect on perceptions of the economy.
However, the other half of the hypothesis showed that neither positive nor negative “base-
rate” information had any effect on economic perceptions.
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H1b: Accuracy in Recall: Representative exemplars will lead to greater accuracy in
recall of base-rate information than will non-supportive or mixed exemplars.
The second hypothesis stated that representative exemplars, those that support or
accurately reflect the base-rate information, would lead to greater accuracy in the recall of
the base-rate information than non-representative or mixed. This hypothesis was
supported as there was a main effect (F2, 481 = 3.98, p < .05, ηp2 = .02) produced by the
variable “representative” on recall. Participants in the representative conditions (M = 1.88,
SD = .85) tended to have higher recall than those in the non-representative (M = 1.64, SD
= .82) and mixed (M = 1.67, SD = .79) conditions. Unfortunately, while those in the
representative condition possessed greater accuracy than the others, on average they were
just slightly below being moderately accurate in their recall.
Another sequence of analyses was run to ascertain if any of the other independent
variables potentially affected recall. In order to test the variables of “story version,”
“exemplars,” and “base-rate” information on recall, a series of ANOVAs were used. The
results for “story version” were F5, 478 = 1.64, p > .05, ηp2 = .02, “exemplars” was F2, 481 =
.62, p > .05, ηp2 = .003, followed by “base-rate” with F1, 482 = .20, p > .05, ηp
2 < .001. In
each analysis there was no main effect on the dependent variable recall, indicating that
only representativeness was significant.
H2a. Economic Literacy and Economic Perceptions: The effect of H1 is mediated by
economic knowledge such that people with high economic literacy will have perceptions
that more accurately reflect the base-rate information showing the overall U.S. economy
is currently getting stronger (recovering) or weaker (remaining stagnate or sliding back),
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while those with low economic literacy will tend to be overly influenced by positive and
negative exemplars.
While studies have shown that arithmetic aptitude can play a role in mediating the
effects of exemplification (Zillmann, Callison, & Gibson, 2009), there has been little
research into what effect, if any, knowledge of a particular subject has. When solely
applied to economic perceptions, those with higher economic literacy perceived the
economy to be stronger (M = 3.43, SD = 1.15) than those with lower economic literacy (M
= 3.19, SD = 1.21) with a main effect of F1, 482 = 5.23, p < .05, ηp2 = .01.
There was a significant interaction between a person’s economic literacy, the story
condition they were in, and their economic perceptions, F5, 472 = 2.70, p > .05, ηp2 = .03
(see Figure 4.4). As the first analysis showed, those with high literacy tended to have
stronger views of the economy than those with lower literacy. This remained relatively
true throughout most of the conditions. The interaction between high and low literacy
occurred in the “base-rate positive: non-representative exemplar” condition, F1, 78 = 15.53,
p < .01, ηp2 = .17, as those with low economic literacy had largely different perceptions of
the economy based upon the story manipulation they were in. Those with high economic
literacy were consistent in their perceptions and were less swayed by the different stories.
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Figure 4.4: Economic Perceptions, Economic Literacy, & Story Version
While the perceptions of those in high economic literacy stayed fairly consistent
and with little variance across all conditions, there were quite a few differences among
those possessing low economic literacy, F5, 244 = 4.37, p < .01, ηp2 = .08. Looking at the
chart from a macro-level, these individuals tended to be more affected by exemplars than
base-rate information. According to Figure 4.5, perceptions regarding the strength of the
economy jumped up or down based upon a person's condition.
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Base-rate Positive Mean Difference Base-rate Negative Mean Difference
Article Representative
exemplars
Non-representative
exemplars
Mixed exemplars
Representative exemplars
Non-representative
exemplars
Mixed exemplars
Posi
tive
Bas
e-ra
te Representative
exemplars ___ 0.82** 0.13 0.55* -0.25 0.37
Non-representative exemplars
-0.82** ___ -0.69** -0.27 -1.07** -0.45
Mixed exemplars -0.13 0.69** ___ 0.42 -0.38 0.24
Neg
ativ
e B
ase-
rate
Representative exemplars -0.55* 0.27 -0.42 ___ -0.80* -0.18
Non-representative exemplars
0.25 1.07** 0.38 0.80** ___ 0.62*
Mixed exemplars -0.37 .045 -0.24 0.18 -0.62* ___
*p < .05. **p < .01 Figure 4.5: Low Literacy, Economic Perceptions Across Story Versions
An examination of economic literacy and exemplars revealed the interaction
between the two significantly reduced economic perceptions on those with low literacy
when negative exemplars were introduced, F2, 478 = 3.13, p < .05, ηp2 = .01. Participants
possessing low literacy tended to be much more affected by exemplars than those in the
high level. Low-level respondents who viewed positive exemplars saw the economy as
stronger (M = 3.56, SD = 1.15); negative exemplars created weaker perceptions (M = 2.77,
SD = 1.00); mixed exemplars found room in the middle (M = 3.20, SD = 1.34). The
discrepancy among those in the high level was much less. Individuals who saw positive
exemplars had slightly higher perceptions (M = 3.54, SD = 1.12) than those in the negative
conditions (M = 3.37, SD = .94) or mixed (M = 3.38, SD = 1.14). Figure 4.6 illustrates
how exemplars have little to no effect among those high in literacy. However, it does
show that those with low literacy are significantly affected by the exemplars within the
articles.
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Figure 4.6: Economic Literacy, Economic Perceptions, & Exemplars
When it comes to economic literacy and base-rate information, an opposite effect
occurs between the levels of high and low literacy than was seen in the exemplar
condition. Here those with high economic literacy were more affected by base-rate than
those with low literacy. High literacy within positive base-rate conditions (M = 3.62, SD =
.96) lead to significantly greater economic perceptions than those in the negative condition
(M = 3.24, SD = 1.13). The same cannot be said about low literacy individuals. When
moving from positive base-rate (M = 3.16, SD = 1.25) to negative base-rate (M = 3.21, SD
= 1.17), there was no significant difference. However, there was an interaction effect of
economic literacy and base-rate information on economic perceptions, F1, 480 = 4.43, p <
.05, ηp2 = .01.
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Figure 4.7: Economic Literacy, Economic Perceptions, &Base-rate Information
The results exploring the role of economic literacy across the manipulations of
story version, exemplars, and base-rate information support the second hypothesis. Low
economic literacy individuals are more likely to reflect the exemplars within story,
affecting their perceptions regarding the strength of the economy than high economic
literacy participants. However, as low literacy individuals are affected by exemplars, the
same cannot be said of base-rate information. As hypothesized, those with high economic
literacy are much more likely to reflect base-rate indicators within a story while focusing
less on the exemplars. Therefore, subject matter knowledge is an important factor when it
comes to exemplification.
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H2b. Accuracy of Recall and Economic Literacy: The effect of H1 is mediated by
economic knowledge such that people with high economic literacy will have better recall
of factual data regardless of the representativeness of exemplars, while those with low
economic literacy will tend to be overly influenced by exemplars.
The role of subject matter knowledge on a person’s ability to recall information
has not been previously explored. As discussed earlier, the representativeness of
exemplars to base-rate information was a significant factor in the accuracy of recall. In
this case however, economic literacy did not play a significant role in respondents’ ability
to recall the base-rate. There were no main effects of literacy on recall as F1, 482 = .01, p >
.05, ηp2 = .01. Both low (M = 1.73, SD = .83) and high levels (M = 1.74, SD = .83) were
almost identical across the recall variable. The same issue occurred when the variable
“representativeness” was added to the analysis. Once again there was no interaction effect,
F2, 478 = 1.33, p > .05, ηp2 = .01, as there were few differences between the levels.
Therefore, hypothesis 2b was not supported as economic literacy does not have an effect
on accuracy of recall.
Economic Literacy
Low High
Representativeness M SD M SD Representative 1.89 0.86 1.88 0.85 Non-representative 1.55 0.77 1.73 0.86 Mixed 1.73 0.83 1.62 0.76 Figure 4.8: Economic Literacy, Recall, & Representativeness
R1. Arithmetic Aptitude, Economic Literacy, and Perceptions of the Economy: Under
varying conditions, does either arithmetic aptitude or economic literacy have a more
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dominant influence over an individual’s evaluations as to the health/state of the economy
or ability to accurately recall economic base-rate information?
Incorporating arithmetic aptitude into the study helps to identify if individuals'
capability to calculate numbers affects their ability to understand and recall numeric
information. The two variables, arithmetic aptitude and economic literacy, were
moderately correlated, r (482) = .35, p < .01. The results from the analysis provide little
support that arithmetic aptitude affects individual’s perceptions regarding the strength of
the economy, F1, 482 = .57, p > .05, ηp2 = .001. Further analysis shows the interactions
across the different manipulations, story version (F5, 472 = .17, p > .05, ηp2 = .001),
exemplars (F2, 478 = .22, p > .05, ηp2 = .001), and base-rate (F1, 480 = .01, p > .05, ηp
2 = .001)
were not significant.
Figure 4.9: Arithmetic Aptitude and Economic Perceptions
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The initial three-way interaction between arithmetic aptitude, economic literacy,
and story version did not produce a significant interaction effect, F5, 460 = 1.19, p > .05, ηp2
= .01, nor was there an interaction when story version was replaced with the exemplar
variable, F2, 472 = .59, p > .05, ηp2 = .002. Upon closer inspection, an interesting
phenomenon occurred. In the case of exemplars when aptitude was low, there was no
difference, F2, 258 = .63, p > .05, ηp2 = .01, in the levels of literacy. Exemplars in this case
did not have an effect on people’s perceptions of the economy regardless of their
economic literacy.
Low Arithmetic Aptitude Economic Literacy
Low High
Exemplars M SD M SD
Positive 3.61 1.23 3.69 1.25
Negative 2.90 0.99 3.38 0.88
Mixed 3.27 1.35 3.48 1.13 Figure 4.10 Low Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Economic Perceptions
However, when arithmetic aptitude was high, there was an interaction affect
between exemplars and literacy, F2, 214 = 3.28, p < .05, ηp2 = .001.
High Arithmetic Aptitude Economic Literacy
Low High
Exemplars M SD M SD
Positive 3.44 0.98 3.46 1.04
Negative 2.37 0.95 3.36 1.00
Mixed 2.98 1.31 3.34 1.16 Figure 4.11 High Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Economic Perceptions
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The same phenomena occurred in the story manipulations as well. When
arithmetic aptitude was low there was no interaction effect between low and high
economic literacy F5, 252 = 1.42, p > .05, ηp2 = .03.
Figure 4.12: Low arithmetic aptitude, economic literacy, and story version
However, when arithmetic aptitude was high there was an interaction effect
between the two levels of economic literacy, story version and perceptions of the
economy, F5, 208 = 2.71, p < .05, ηp2 = .06.
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Figure 4.13: High arithmetic aptitude, economic literacy, and story version
This indicates that economic literacy may have a more dominant influence over
individuals' perceptions than arithmetic aptitude while continuing to show that individuals
with high literacy are less affected by exemplars than those with low literacy.
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Figure 4.14 High Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Exemplars In comparison with the base-rate variable, there was no interaction effect between
literacy, aptitude, and a person’s perception of the economy, F1, 476 = 012, p > .05, ηp2 =
.001. Unlike exemplars, no difference was found between the different levels of literacy
and aptitude.
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Low Arithmetic Aptitude High Arithmetic Aptitude Economic Literacy Economic Literacy
Low High Low High Base-Rate M SD M SD M SD M SD
Positive 3.24 1.28 3.72 1.01 2.96 1.16 3.55 0.92
Negative 3.29 1.18 3.22 1.08 3.04 1.15 3.25 1.16 Figure 4.15: Arithmetic Aptitude, Economic Literacy, & Base-rate Information
When it comes to accuracy of recall, there was no main effect involving arithmetic
aptitude, F1, 482 = .82, p > .05, ηp2 = .002, nor was there an interaction effect between
aptitude and the representativeness of exemplars, F2, 478 = .26, p > .05, ηp2 = .001.
Furthermore, the combination of aptitude and literacy on recall, F1, 480 = .03, p > .05, ηp2 <
.001, was not significant, and when combined with the representativeness of exemplars,
F2, 472 = .18, p > .05, ηp2 = .001, there was still no interaction.
There was a significant difference due to arithmetic aptitude when recall was
modified from the categorical variable and back into the original open-ended percentage
variable. A main effect was present between arithmetic aptitude and accuracy of recall
when this happened, F1, 482 = 4.00, p < .05, ηp2 = .01. Under the same conditions a main
effect did not occur when economic literacy was tested, F1, 482 = .95, p > .05, ηp2 = .002.
In answering the first research question, there is little doubt that economic literacy
had a more dominant influence over participants’ views on the strength of the economy
than did arithmetic aptitude. However, results showed that when it came to the accuracy
of recall, neither literacy nor aptitude played a dominant role. Only when the categorical
variable was replaced with the original percent did arithmetic aptitude show significance.
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R2. Political Ideology and Perceptions of the Economy: Under varying conditions, what
role does political ideology have over an individual’s perception of the overall strength of
the economy?
The initial results of political ideology and perceptions of the economy emerged as
both common sense and research would suggest. Examining the single-item measure of
general political ideology, there was a main effect, F2, 481 = 13.61, p < .01, ηp2 = .05 (see
figure 4.14), as liberals (M = 3.72, SD = 1.15) perceived the economy to be slightly
stronger than moderates (M = 3.33, SD = 1.08) and substantially stronger than
conservatives (M = 2.93, SD = 1.18). However, across all story versions there was no
interaction effect, F10, 466 = .69, p > .05, ηp2 = .02.
Figure 4.16: Political Ideology & Economic Perceptions
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Upon close examination of each individual story, significant differences were
found within the articles (see figure 4.17). Interaction effects occurred in the conditions:
positive base-rate: non-representative exemplars, F2, 77 = 7.1, p < .01, ηp2 = .16; negative
base-rate: representative exemplars, F2, 80 = 4.19, p < .05, ηp2 = .10; and negative base-
rate: mixed exemplars, F2, 80 = 4.25, p < .05, ηp2 = .10. Figure 4.17 provides a quick
overview that exemplars tend to have less influence over liberals than over moderates or
conservatives. It also shows support for Figure 4.16 in that liberals are generally going to
have more positive perceptions of the economy than moderates or conservatives
regardless of base-rate information or exemplars.
Figure 4.17: Political Ideology, Economic Perceptions, & Story Version
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To further test the impact of these stories on political ideology, the conditions of
base-rate and exemplars will be analyzed as well. In the case of exemplars, we once again
do not have an overall interaction effect, F4, 475 = .29, p > .05, ηp2 = .002, as seen in Figure
4.16. Political ideology differences do occur in the conditions of negative exemplars, F2,
160 = 10.02, p < .01, ηp2 = .11, and mixed exemplars, F2, 159 = 4.3, p < .05, ηp
2 = .001.
Positive exemplars had no significant effect. This reaffirms the effect of exemplars on
moderates and conservatives while observing liberals consistent beliefs regarding the
economy.
Figure 4.18: Political Ideology, Economic Perceptions, & Exemplars
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Again there was no interaction effect across the base-rate variable, F2, 478 = .57, p >
.05, ηp2 = .002 (see figure 4.19), but there were significant differences within each
condition. In base-rate positive, liberals (M = 3.73, SD =1.21) perceived the economy as
much stronger than conservatives (M = 2.96, SD = 1.06) and slightly stronger than
moderates (M = 3.46, SD = 1.06), F2, 235 = 7.14, p < .01, ηp2 = .06. When the base-rate
flipped to negative, liberals held an almost identical view regarding the economy’s
strength (M = 3.71, SD = 1.11); there was a tiny drop in the perceptions of moderates (M =
3.21, SD = 1.09); while conservatives stayed fairly consistent in their views as well (M =
2.90, SD = 1.21), F2, 243 = 7.17, p < .01, ηp2 = .06.
Figure 4.19: Political Ideology, Economic Perceptions, & Base-rate
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CHAPTER V
DISCUSSION
Research into exemplification theory has often found that exemplars play a more
influential and decisive role on an individual’s perceptions of an event than does base-rate
information (Brosius & Bathelt, 1994). Further, some scholars even downplay the
prominence of base-rate information on how individuals form certain judgments (Koehler,
1996). While there is little doubt that exemplars play an important role within the
persuasiveness of information, there may be other unexplored internal factors within
personal characteristics of an individual that make base-rate data just as informative.
The primary purpose of the research was to build upon Zillmann, Callison, &
Gibson’s (2009) research into the mediation of personal characteristics within
exemplification studies by examining if subject matter knowledge, also referred to
throughout the study as aptitude or literacy, affects not only how an individual considers
and recalls information within a news article but also how they might perceive that subject
on a much broader scale. In essence could a person’s high level of knowledge regarding a
specific subject disrupt the influence of exemplars?
In this case economics was chosen for a number of reasons. First, it is an area that
is both relevant and also affects the lives of almost everyone in today’s society whether
the individual truly understands it or not. Among all news stories in 2010, the economy
was the most covered topic, even more so than the midterm elections (The Pew Research
Center, 2011). Next, it is a subject that has a natural fit within the basic fundamentals
required of exemplification: base-rate information and exemplars. Many times numbers
and percentages are incorporated into news stories that represent attributes of the
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economy, e.g. unemployment, the housing market, personal finance, etc., and are often
followed with exemplars of those events. Ever more so, the fundamental nature of
experience through exemplars revolves around the idea that individuals make quantitative
assessments constructed not specifically on numerical estimates but in proportional terms
(Zillmann, 2000). Similarly, facets of economics in part revolve around people relying on
their “day-to-day personal experiences with the economy and observations of real-world
economic indicators when making assessments of current economic conditions” (Hester &
Gibson, 2003, p. 85).
Subsequently, an individual’s political ideology is another aspect of personal
characteristics that was examined. Politically both credit and blame go hand-in-hand when
discussing the state of the economy (Edwards, Mitchell, & Welch, 1995; Patterson, 1993),
and consequently the party of the sitting president and the party in control of Congress
play substantial roles in how Americans form economic opinions (Gerber & Huber, 2010).
It was therefore necessary that if this paper covered economic perceptions, political
ideology would also be taken into account.
Analysis of basic exemplification theory and economic perceptions
Before moving directly into the effects surrounding the aforementioned
characteristics of an individual, a test of basic exemplification hypotheses was run. Initial
results suggested exemplars had a more profound effect on economic perceptions than
base-rate, supporting the findings of many of the early exemplification studies (Aust &
Zillmann, 1996; Brosius, 1995; Gibson & Zillmann, 1994; Zillmann, 1999) Participants in
the positive condition with representative exemplars found the strength of the economy to
be generally higher, and as one might expect, the opposite occurred under the negative
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condition with representative exemplars. In this scenario we can’t say with certainty
whether it was the base-rate or exemplars that caused the initial perceptions, but moving
forward the picture becomes a little clearer.
When the exemplars did not reflect the overall direction indicated in the story,
either positive or negative, perceptions began to change significantly. Those participants
in the positive base-rate: non-representative exemplar condition tended to believe the
overall strength of the economy was weaker, indicating that while the base-rate remained
positive, the exemplars had a more polarizing effect on their perceptions. Reinforcing this,
the same effect occurred within the negative base-rate: non-representative exemplars
condition. Zillmann (1999) discussed this phenomenon stating that when accurate base-
rate information is paired or reported along with exemplars that distort or are atypical
cases then the result often leads to less influential base-rate data. Therefore, a strong
argument could be made that exemplars were the driving force behind the profound and
significant changes within the experiment.
One of the more interesting findings focuses on perhaps the least telling of
variables: mixed exemplars. Mixed exemplars, while not intended to be a control
variable, do offer the opportunity for a reader to base their perceptions on conflicting
statements. Essentially, there is the potential for a individual to be influenced solely by the
negative exemplar set, the positive exemplar set, find the middle ground, or revert back to
the base-rate. If the base-rate is 75 percent directionally positive, the mixed exemplar
condition, because it is 50-50, can be seen as either half supportive with a 25 percent
difference between it and 75 or half non-supportive with a 25 percent difference toward
the negative side with an identical manifestation created when the direction is reversed.
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The question is then asked, “What happens to perceptions when exemplars are neither
representative nor non-representative?” The results from this study suggest that
participants in conditions with mixed exemplars reverted back to the original base-rate
information. One possible answer for this is that the exemplars had an overriding effect on
one another, canceling one another in individuals' minds, leaving them with only the base-
rate. A more probable explanation is the base-rate primed the respondent to “see” the
economy moving in a certain direction, with the conflicting exemplars lacking any
dominance to overwhelm the supporting ones. Participants may have then been
subconsciously looking for evidence to support the base-rate information, and without
anything substantial to refute it, the base-rate remained.
In this scenario, Brosius’ (1995) explanation that base-rate is often an inferior
instrument of influence falters. It does however provide support to priming research
(Hetherington & Rudolph, 2008) that shows exposure to certain stimuli produce future
evaluations. In the case of representative exemplars the audience saw a base-rate number
regarding a population of people and exemplars that reflected that number. Whether base-
rate priming or exemplar influence occurred here is difficult to tell. In the case of non-
representative exemplars it seems likely the exemplars had a significant influence over the
base-rate, potentially negating any priming that may have occurred. But coming back to
mixed exemplars, it is possible that viewers were primed by the base-rate, and without
overriding exemplars to counter that phenomenon, the priming effect held. This may
coincide with Holbrook and Hill’s (2005) idea of activation stating that as information is
activated within memory the likelihood of similar issues being activated increases as well.
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The problem here is determining whether or not this occurs only when exemplars are
mixed.
Further reinforcing the first hypothesis and providing additional support to the
“powerful” exemplar notion was the analysis of both base-rate and exemplar variables.
The findings showed that base-rate information, in either direction, had no significant
effect among the respondents. The difference, however, among positive, negative and
mixed exemplars was significant, indicating their overall impact with viewers. Whereas it
was hypothesized that base-rate positive stories as well as stories with positive exemplars
would contribute to stronger perceptions of the economy, only positive exemplars
supported this idea. This finding supports prior research that shows the dominant
influence exemplars often have over base-rate information (Brosius & Bethelt, 1994;
Gibson & Zillmann, 1994; Zillmann, Gibson, Sundar, & Perkins, 1996; Zillmann, Perkins,
& Sundar, 1992).
Analysis of the Effect of Recall
When evaluating participants’ accuracy of recall, only one of the variables,
representativeness, had any effect. The findings fully supported the second part of the first
hypothesis, demonstrating that when base-rate information is reinforced by representative
exemplars, individuals are more likely to recollect the information with a higher degree of
accuracy. Conventional wisdom would even indicate that most numerical data
accompanied with descriptive passages, quotes, or statements that reflect that information
would be more memorable within an individual’s memory (Zillmann & Brosius, 2000).
What could be said then is that it is more important for an individual to have an
understanding of the subject matter of the story than have the ability to accurately recall
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and process numbers. An area like economics is not an easy field to pursue, even for the
most educated. This shows that accuracy in reporting economic information is critical to
the conveyance of what the information means and how people interpret it. As was seen in
this study, disproportionate exemplars affect not only the way readers view the story but
also their perception of the overall national economy. The implication goes deeper if
media outlets, through the use of representative exemplars, are able to increase the
accuracy of recall, potentially enhancing people’s remedial understanding of the subject,
while also strengthening the message.
The findings for both parts of the first hypothesis are by no means ground breaking
within exemplification research. Multiple studies (Berger, 2000; Koehler, 1996) have
shown the dominant role of exemplars over base-rate information as typical base-rate
figures lack the colorful narratives and often tend to be less vivid within the imagination.
What the results do provide is the basic groundwork from which to evaluate how personal
characteristics can potentially shift the influence away from exemplars toward the base-
rate.
Analysis of Economic Literacy
One such characteristic, arithmetic aptitude, has been shown to mediate the effects
of exemplars and base-rate within exemplification research (Zillmann, Callison, &
Gibson, 2009). This research pioneered some of the first steps in recognizing the
limitations of exemplars while acknowledging that certain traits reduce and even nullify
the effects. One area that has not been examined, however, is how one’s knowledge of a
subject might also mediate the effects of exemplification. Simple common sense would
say that a doctor reading a story on medicine or health would have a different perception
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on the subject than the average layman. For example, if the media ran a story about a
prescription drug progressing through clinical trials, stating it had a 95 percent success
rate, and then derived the interviewees from the 5 percent in which it failed, then non-
healthcare professionals might see the drug as a failure based upon the interviewees’
experiences while doctors hailed its success based upon the base-rate.
And while that example focuses on a specific profession that requires a high level
of knowledge, another consideration might be in areas where elements of a story are left
out because they are either deemed irrelevant or the authors themselves are not aware of
the facts. The difference in these cases focuses on readers' knowledge of the subject in
which they might be aware of information not provided that changes their perception of
the story. For instance, in 2001 Ford Explorers and Expeditions were the target of a media
firestorm that focused on a high rate of deadly accidents surrounding the vehicles. It is
conceivable that a story would report that less than five percent of Explorer owners might
be affected followed by a string of interviews from owners who described near death
experiences because of the defective design. The average car owner with little knowledge
of how a vehicle works may worry that all Ford Explorers and Expeditions are dangerous,
warning anyone who will listen to avoid them. What the story may fail to mention is that
anyone with a high level of interest or knowledge of automobiles may know that it was
not the car but tread separation and air-pressure within the tires. So education of an issue,
not level of intelligence, may be the most important determining factor in how individuals
interpret the base-rate and exemplars within the media.
Until now, this hypothesis had not been tested under exemplification. The results
showed that subject matter knowledge does play a role in how effective exemplars and
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base-rate are in forming our perceptions. Overall, those with high economic literacy
believed the economic conditions in the U.S. were stronger than those with low literacy,
but more importantly those individuals’ perceptions were more closely related to the base-
rate information and less affected by exemplars. The real interaction and differences
occurred across the story manipulations. Higher economic literacy participants were not
influenced by the exemplars within the articles, which could indicate that they read the
articles as they were intended to be viewed. Representative, non-representative, and mixed
exemplars played almost no part in their understanding of the article. Directionally
positive stories tended to be viewed as indicators of a stronger economy while
directionally negative stories were viewed as indicators of a weaker economy. These
findings are similar to Walstad and Rebeck’s (2002) research that showed individual’s
possessing higher economic aptitude had opinions that were more reflective of real-world
economic conditions.
It could be conjectured that those with low economic literacy were oblivious to the
base-rate direction within the stories. When the exemplars were representative, there was
virtually no difference between high and low economic literacy, occurring almost
identically in the mixed exemplar conditions as well. The situation quickly changed when
non-representative exemplars were introduced. Whereas respondents with high economic
literacy stayed consistent throughout the conditions, those with low literacy were
significantly influenced by the exemplars. Negative exemplars were overly influential in
the directionally positive base-rate condition with the exact opposite occurring between
positive exemplars within the directionally negative base-rate condition. This shows that
economic perceptions of those with low economic literacy were formed around statements
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given by those interviewed in the stories rather than the preceding base-rate. Therefore, it
is very likely that those with low economic literacy are almost solely focused on the
exemplars within a story, making them less likely to recall substantive information
(Brosius, 2003; Kazoleas, 1993).
By eliminating the base-rate variable and only focusing on the effect of exemplars,
the findings help support the argument advanced in the previous discussion. There was no
effect of exemplars, whether positive, negative, or mixed, on individuals with high
literacy. Their economic perceptions once again held steady across the conditions.
However, the exemplar variable does highlight an area that was not apparent in the story
variable. Participants with low literacy had essentially identical views on the economy as
those with high literacy under positive and mixed conditions. Once the negative condition
was introduced, their perceptions dropped substantially. A few assumptions could be
made from this. First, that as audiences view recent economic coverage as
overwhelmingly negative (The Pew Research Center 2011), they have been primed or
tend to focus more on negative exemplars within news stories. And secondly, that
negative exemplars are more persuasive than positive, reinforcing research (Soroka, 2006)
that shows reporters believe that viewers value negative information more than positive
information. However, without further evidence this cannot be said with any certainty.
Another area within the research targets the base-rate variable while eliminating the effect
of exemplars. Here we see an opposite outcome from the previous analysis in that high
literacy is affected while low literacy remains unchanged. Individuals possessing high
economic literacy perceived stronger economic conditions when they viewed stories under
the positive base-rate manipulation with those perceptions decreasing when the base-rate
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switched to negative. Low literacy individuals were unaffected, maintaining an almost
even opinion across base-rate conditions. According to Kazoleas’ (2004) findings, this
may indicate that higher levels of economic literacy result in increased critical thinking,
while reducing the use of heuristics and shortcuts.
The evidence from the first part of the second hypothesis confirms that an
individual’s level of knowledge regarding a particular subject does have a mediating
effect within exemplification. As was expected, those with little knowledge of the subject
were more susceptible to the effects of exemplars, essentially relying on the testimony of
others to form their opinion. What was uncertain, however, was the role high literacy
would play. The research established exemplars are less influential over those with high
literacy as they were found to be more affected by the base-rate information provided.
This gives additional support to Zillmann, Callison, and Gibson’s (2009) research that
showed how personal characteristics do indeed affect the processing of base-rate and
exemplars under exemplification. This leads into the second part of the hypothesis that
seeks to determine if high literacy also translates into the ability to recall information
more accurately.
Unfortunately, the results indicated there were no differences between high and
low levels of literacy in gauging a person’s ability to recall information. Across all
conditions there was never an interaction effect suggesting that literacy did not play a role
in recall. Examining the issue further indicates that literacy would probably not be an
influential factor on one’s memory. Elements within the story, such as the
representativeness of exemplars, are more likely to make the information more accessible
than any character trait of the individual reading it. In some situations, level of knowledge
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may make a difference in a person’s ability to remember facts and figures. However, this
study found no evidence to support that hypothesis.
Analysis of Arithmetic Aptitude and Economic Literacy
Recently, the most studied personal aspect under exemplification has been the
ability to understand and process numerical data. The test of arithmetic aptitude has
shown that as the levels of knowledge increase, so does the ability to recall quantities and
proportions (Zillmann, Callison, & Gibson, 2009). The effect arithmetic aptitude might
have on economic perceptions is something entirely new. Across story conditions,
aptitude was not significant as those with both high and low scores saw the strength of the
economy relatively the same. The same results occurred throughout the exemplar, base-
rate, and representative conditions as well, indicating that mathematical understanding
does not impact one's perceptions of the economy.
The comparison between arithmetic aptitude and economic literacy provided little
evidence that there was a relationship between the two. Once again across the conditions,
there were no interaction effects between the two on economic perceptions. Two areas
where the interactions can be seen are between the levels of low and high arithmetic
aptitude and economic literacy in the conditions of story version and exemplars. When
aptitude was low, those with both high and low economic literacy tended to be more
influenced by exemplars. However, when arithmetic aptitude was high, there was a
difference between the levels of literacy. Once again low literacy levels were easily
influenced by the exemplars, but in this case high levels were not. Individuals who
possess low aptitude, regardless of high or low economic literacy, will undoubtedly then
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105
be affected by exemplars within a story while those with high aptitude will vary
depending on their economic literacy.
Previous research (Zillmann, Callison, & Gibson, 2009) states that in some cases
arithmetic aptitude should play a role in participants’ accuracy of recall. Unfortunately,
none of the findings suggested that aptitude was a foolproof predictor of recall. Another
analysis changed the nature of these findings when the measure regarding the accuracy of
recall was altered from a categorical variable and reverted back to the open-ended
percentage the respondents gave. In this case instead of low, moderate, and high accuracy,
the findings focused on how close each level of aptitude moved toward the correct base-
rate percentage. Individuals with high arithmetic aptitude were significantly closer to the
original base-rate data than those with low aptitude, signifying that high aptitude
participants either had better memories or were less affected by exemplars than originally
believed. When the same measurements were applied to economic literacy, there was no
significant difference between high and low levels.
The interesting results from this research question show that economic literacy has
a stronger influence on how people perceive the economy and how those perceptions are
more affected by exemplars and base-rate information while also demonstrating the
nominal impact arithmetic aptitude has. On the other side, arithmetic aptitude is a much
better measurement and indicator of actual base-rate recall than literacy was.
Analysis of Political Ideology within Exemplification Theory
Earlier results have shown that individual knowledge of an issue, as well as the
ability to calculate and estimate numerical data, can affect the way a person processes
information viewed in the media. These characteristics focus more on an internal
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understanding and inherent aptitude than on personal opinion and assumptions. The next
set of personal characteristics moves away from how a person thinks about specific
information to how a person applies that information to individual philosophical political
beliefs and how that applies to the world around them.
The findings showed, as one might expect, that liberals viewed the economy as
stronger than moderates and conservatives. And while no questions were asked to
determine how participants felt about President Obama or the U.S. Congress, it would be
easy to speculate based upon both previous research (Gerber & Huber, 2010) and common
sense that those who most identify with the party in the White House will see the country
as doing better than those ideologically opposed to those in control. If this study had been
conducted in 2008, the results, as far as political ideology is concerned, might logically be
reversed with conservatives declaring a stronger economy than liberals.
The manipulation of economic stories provided an interesting jumping-off point to
see if a relationship between political ideology and exemplification existed. As was
expected, liberals and conservatives were not nearly as affected by exemplars to the extent
that moderates were. Throughout the different versions, liberals stayed relatively
consistent in their views of the economy; on its face moderates appeared somewhat
affected by both base-rate and exemplars while conservatives throughout each condition
consistently ranked the economy fairly weak.
A question that arises from the analysis is why were liberals so consistent across
all versions while conservatives tended to fluctuate more? Conservatives did rank the
economy as weaker than liberals and moderates, but the strength of those views does not
appear to be based solely on political ideology. Unfortunately, the study did not seek to
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ascertain the strength of ideological conviction, only what relationship it might have. The
time period the experiment was conducted also fell close to a heavily debated and watched
presidential election, making these issues much more salient to audiences. As the 2012
political election cycle gears up, President Obama (D) has been persistently criticized for
his economic policies and the state of unemployment, which is consistent with historical
analyses that the tone of news coverage often is highly correlated with a president’s
approval rating (Graber, 1993) and that incumbent president’s often receive more
economic coverage than their opponents (Shah et al., 1999). Perhaps due to the campaign
attacks on his economic record, liberals feel the media is too harsh in its tone or is
providing too much negative reporting regarding the president. If this is indeed the case,
liberals may be so headstrong in their beliefs that it is possible their perceptions are
unaffected regardless of positive or negative base-rate or exemplars. If that hypothesis is
true, then it would seem sensible that conservatives would have an equal, albeit opposing
strength in their belief. The findings show there is no significant difference between
conservative ideology and the story versions even as Figure 4.15 seems to illustrate more
movement along the different story manipulations. Therefore, liberals and conservatives
do indeed have consistent, polarizing views of the economy. The most interesting and yet
conceivable finding of the three came from moderates as their perceptions significantly
differed across the stories. This suggests that moderates may not be as resilient or rely as
heavily upon their ideological views when reading or viewing economic news stories.
Political pundits and pollsters generally focus on independents and moderates in political
races, stating they often don’t make concrete decisions about parties and candidates until
right up till the election date (Miller, 1980). This finding furthers the notion that
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moderates are more influenced by facets of base-rate and exemplars, perhaps indicating
that their minds are not yet made up.
Through the examination of both exemplar and base-rate variables, we are able to
delve deeper into these findings, illustrating the effect these variables have on economic
perceptions when combined with political ideology. The role of exemplars emphasizes
what was seen in the earlier analysis in that positive exemplars generally create stronger
perceptions of the economy across ideology; negative exemplars, with the exception of
liberals, significantly weakens those perceptions; and mixed exemplars tend to force
individuals to find middle ground between the two. Further reinforcing this are the
differences between liberal, moderates, and conservatives with the base-rate condition.
Once again liberals and conservatives were reliably consistent across both conditions. The
economy, in the eyes of liberals, was stronger regardless of the base-rate while
conservatives were almost identical in their belief that the economy remains weak.
Moderates, however, were significantly affected by positive and negative base-rate
information, lending support to the idea that both the media and campaigns may have a
prominent influence over their perceptions.
So what role do political ideologies play in exemplification and overall perceptions
of the economy? Unfortunately, because of the lack of significance among liberals and
conservatives with respect to exemplars and base-rate, it could be said these two groups in
effect have blinders on when it boils down to how they see they news. Neither factual
information presented in numerical form nor the opinions and statements offered by those
within the story affect what seems to be pre-existing ideas of that which is occurring
within the economy. The polarization of the parties and the growing extremism among
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political ideologists almost creates a bubble or vacuum in which conflicting views are met
with hostility or derision. Sadly, the state of politics in our country no longer tends to lend
itself to open-mindedness or acceptance of information that does not correspond with our
beliefs.
However, for all the zealotry within the political arena, the emphasis on the power
of moderates and their ability to shape elections remains essential. The results showed that
while they may be more influenced by base-rate information and exemplars, it could also
be interpreted as moderates’ capacity to remain flexible, unbiased, and more open to
conflicting information. The results also show the danger of how the media could
manipulate economic perceptions through the reporting of news stories and more
specifically the exemplars used within those stories. If they overly exaggerate those
exemplars in either direction, then perceptions of that event, issue, or occurrence may be
distorted, and the true reality of the story is lost. Consequently, the media has a
responsibility to be as representative with their exemplars when discussing an event
population.
Theoretical Implications
The findings discussed in this paper continue to build upon early exemplification
research put forth by Gibson and Zillmann (1994). As Brosius (1995) once pointed out
that base-rate information was often regarded as an inferior instrument of influence this
study shows that his statement is both right and wrong. However, this study was not the
beginning or origin that first explored this phenomenon, it only sought to build upon
recent findings. Zillmann, Callison, and Gibson (2009) provided some of the first clues
and analysis as to what factors might short-circuit the influence of exemplars. When they
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found that an individual’s arithmetic aptitude played a significant role in the processing of
base-rate and exemplars a new area of potential research opened up in exemplification.
According to Zillmann, Callison, and Gibson (2009), as an individual’s aptitude
increases, their understanding and view of a story becomes less influenced by exemplars,
while the inverse occurs with lower aptitude. This helped highlight how certain personal
characteristics that individuals possess help break down how we understand
exemplification. This study reinforces their findings and moves the theory forward by
applying subject-matter knowledge to the personal characteristics literature. Complex
topics such as the economy are often difficult to fully comprehend without some degree of
education gained from academia or experience. The results found here indicate that as one
becomes more knowledgeable of a topic then the effect of exemplars diminishes, whereas
similar to the arithmetic aptitude variable those with lower aptitude or literacy are more
susceptible to a greater influence exerted by exemplars. These findings partially contradict
early exemplification research (Brosius & Bethelt, 1994; Gibson & Zillmann, 1994;
Zillmann, Gibson, Sundar, & Perkins, 1996; Zillmann, Perkins, & Sundar, 1992) that puts
forth the notion of powerful exemplar effects.
There is little doubt those authors are still correct in their assessment regarding the
vividness and influence of exemplars. When aptitude and literacy were excluded from the
analysis there were significant differences throughout the story manipulations. Base-rate
information, both positive and negative, had little to no effect on the participants.
However, the direction or tone of exemplars, positive and negative, did affect individual’s
perceptions of the economy, further supporting early exemplification research.
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Just recently, Gibson, Callison, and Zillmann (2011) examined how “individual
differences in arithmetic competence have notable implications for persons’ assessment of
situations that have relevant quantitative characteristics and also instigate a degree of
emotional reactivity” (p. 24). The results found in this research, coupled with previous
findings (Callison, Gibson, & Zillmann, 2011; Zillmann, Callison, & Gibson, 2009), push
forward the idea that future exemplification research should not only focus on criteria and
facets of the message, but on characteristics of the receiver as well.
Practical Implications
The results illustrated the dual roles of base-rate information and exemplars and
their effect on audience’s perceptions of the economy. Less knowledgeable audiences tend
to be more influenced by exemplars, whereas when a participant is more knowledgeable
about a subject we see a diminishing effect on that influence. The application of these
results indicates that in many situations the primary focus should first be in understanding
audience characteristics for which the message will be developed.
Niche areas and fields such as trade groups, professional organizations, and
technical journals may be encouraged to use more base-rate numbers and data as their
members and readers should be able to extract the facts more efficiently. The addition of
representative exemplars regarding these events and populations have the ability to
strengthen the recall of the message, but overall the substance may not be the most
important aspect of the message. In these cases public relations practitioners, journalists,
and executives may not have to worry about how much additional detail is needed to tell
the story. As the research showed, those with high literacy had consistent views across the
conditions as exemplars had little influence on their perceptions. This is not to say that
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everyone reads articles the same way and all share similar viewpoints, but it does suggest
they are able to process the information comparably.
Not all media and organizations have the luxury of niche audiences. In these cases
those outlets must consider the proper use and implementation of base-rate information
and exemplars. Individuals with greater subject-matter comprehension will hopefully
understand the information as it was intended. The issue at hand becomes how to present
that information to those with little or no understanding of the subject. Here, when
constructed appropriately exemplars can make the message more impactful. Some
organizations should be able to do this with little difficulty. For instance, a financial
officer issuing an annual report to stockholders can and should use exemplars that are
representative of the information being provided. In the event that a stockholder does not
understand what the financial information (base-rate) means, the exemplars can be used to
more vividly paint a picture, providing greater meaning. For news outlets this may be a
more difficult task. Journalists cannot, within reason, be expected to seek out quotes and
statements that accurately portray the exact proportion of the population “exemplified”
within the story. In these moments a journalist needs to ask himself or herself if the
disproportionate use of exemplars detracts and takes away from the true meaning of the
story or has the ability to distort audience’s perceptions of the issue. If there exists a risk
the journalist may need to provide additional background information regarding the topic
in an effort to make the reader more knowledgeable, or at the very least to minimize any
misrepresentation or misconceptions.
When exploring the practical applications of exemplification theory it is important
to note that the theory can only be applied in limited ways. Much of this is due in part to
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the complicated nature of how it is used. First, base-rate information must pertain to or
explain a specific event or population. When discussing the economy, GDP base-rate
information, while informative, cannot be “experienced” in a way that exemplars could
explain. Which isn’t to say that the economy can’t be used as unemployment, inflation,
and consumer confidence can all be reinforced with statements and quotes from people
experiencing those events. Second, the ability to proportionally present exemplars in
relation to base-rate information may not always exist. In some cases there may be an
inadequate population to draw from, limiting communicators’ options to make the
exemplars representative. This isn’t to say exemplars must be 100 percent proportional to
the base-rate, but as discussed earlier a person runs the risk of miscommunicating the
message.
Limitations
No study, no matter how well-thought out and planned, is without its limitations.
Perhaps one of the greatest strengths and biggest concerns focuses on the sample used.
Research (Walstad & Rebeck, 2002) has shown that individuals with only one college
economics course are more likely to have different economic views than individuals
without any economics course above high school. And while one of the objectives of an
experiment is not always to generalize to a specific population, the use of college students
as a sample did not seem appropriate to the overall goal. Therefore, a non-probability
sample of the general population of the United States was used in order to collect more
robust data. This allowed more variation in age, gender, ethnicity, education, and political
ideology, creating a more diverse group of participants; and while the use of a non-
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probability sample, more specifically one taken from a sampling firm, could potentially
pose its own issues, the reward of having such a diverse sample far outweighed the risks.
The second limitation, unfortunately, is considerably less easier to control. The
current economic and political environment could be described as hostile or at the very
least uneasy. Any study with a focus on the economy conducted during a time of
economic uncertainty is not going to be without its critics. Adding to that existing
confounding variable is the circumstance under which the study was conducted. The
economy becomes a more sensitive issue, covered extensively by the media, during a
presidential election year. Some might argue the heightened coverage and tone given by
the media would skew the results in one direction or the other, or that individuals have
been so bombarded and exposed to messages that any semblance of being unbiased is
futile. If this study was conducted during a non-presidential election cycle, when the
economy was sound, or when the president and congress were not viewed so poorly, then
perhaps economic perceptions, especially when measured with political ideology, might
be more easily influenced. The results from the study did, however, support the
hypotheses with the research questions providing clear answers. Research (Horner, 2008;
Zucker, 1978) also shows that because the economy is an obtrusive issue, there will
always be, regardless of timing, on-going, evolving perceptions regarding the subject.
Conclusion
The focus of this study was designed to determine if certain characteristics of
individuals potentially affect the way they view news stories. Empirical research (Berger,
2000) has identified the overwhelming and influential nature of exemplars over base-rate
information, providing evidence to the strength of their persuasive nature. If the media,
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when reporting the news, choose not to use interviews or statements that proportionately
reflect the event taking place, there is little doubt based upon exemplification research that
many people will be overly influenced by those exemplars. The reality of the story can be
distorted as the exemplars present an inaccurate depiction of actual events. Only recently
have studies (Zillmann, Callison, & Gibson, 2009) begun to show that specific aspects of
an individual can override and short circuit the effects of exemplars. Arithmetic aptitude is
one of those traits, and from this study we now know that subject matter knowledge, more
specifically economic literacy, is another.
The findings highlight the substantial persuasiveness of exemplars and the
susceptibility of individuals with lower aptitude and literacy to them. The consequences of
irresponsible or lazy reporting could range from mild to severe. If the subject of a news
article focuses on amusement parks and the probability of people who get sick on rides,
most people might read it, and based upon the exemplars, they might also think that
almost everyone becomes ill or that the rides really do not cause sickness. The article
probably is not going to change a individuals' perceptions on rides, change amusement
park behavior, or hurt the amusement park industry.
Taking it another step we can use the current economic-exemplification
experiment as an example. The results showed that exemplars did have an overall effect
on participants’ perception as to the strength of the economy. This is important because
many economic studies (Blood & Phillips, 1995; Deboef & Kellstedt, 2004; Fan, 1993;
Ladner & Wlezien, 2007) agree that consumer confidence is one of the major components
in judging the health of the economy. Therefore, if news stories are negatively affecting
those perceptions, we could see a decrease in consumer spending, job hiring, or investing,
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in effect harming the economy. The media may not even be aware of the influence its
choice of exemplars is having on the public. Perhaps the most severe ramifications of
using non-representative exemplars would be in healthcare related articles. If a story
discussed the high-rate of cancer among teens using tanning booths followed by
exemplars of teens who have been tanning for years without problems, this account may
lead to attitudes that tanning beds really are not all that dangerous. The consequences of
that attitude would be far more reaching than incorrect perceptions of going to the
amusement park. Another example would be a story focused on the possible side effects
of a new pharmaceutical drug. If the article stated that of those who took the drug less
than 2 percent experienced any problems while everyone quoted within the story said they
did experience a negative side effect, then people who need the medicine may have a
grossly unbalanced perception of how it works and may avoid taking it. So not only do
exemplars affect how viewers see a particular news story or article, but they also affect
how people see the issue or event in its entirety, potentially changing their behavior in
accordance.
Fortunately, this effect can be countered when individuals are more knowledgeable
regarding the subject. In the case of the amusement park rides, the issue may be so
inconsequential that it may not matter if someone has high or low knowledge of the
subject. However, as we saw in this study, those with high economic literacy were more
likely to have economic perceptions that mirrored the base-rate and were less affected by
the exemplars. If they have a better understanding of how the economy works, then
inaccurate exemplars within the news should be less likely to affect their judgments and
attitude toward the subject. The same reasoning should apply to those more
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knowledgeable about healthcare. One doesn’t necessarily need to be a doctor or nurse to
filter out the irrelevant aspects of a story to understand what the reporter is trying to say.
The importance of these studies highlights the necessity for people to be educated
about critical issues. The media does have influence over audience’s perceptions,
attitudes, and behavior, but that influence can be diminished and reduced when people
take the time to better understand the issue. In some cases, as we saw with political
ideology, people will always have blinders on, and no matter what they see or hear those
beliefs are not going to change. But that may also be limited to certain issues or events,
and perhaps through education and the advancement of knowledge, they too will be able
to see past the misrepresentation of information.
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APPENDICES A
Positive Base-Rate: Exemplar Representative Economic News Articles
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to
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find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
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Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
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137
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
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138
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
139
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
140
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
141
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
142
Positive Base-Rate: Exemplar Non-representative Economic News Articles
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
143
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
144
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
145
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
146
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
147
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
148
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
149
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
150
Positive Base-Rate: Exemplar Mixed Economic News Articles Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
151
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
152
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
153
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
154
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
155
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
156
Consumer confidence points to economic growth By John Gibbs There are signs of growth in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt more confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
157
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
158
Negative Base-Rate: Exemplar Representative Economic News Articles
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
159
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
160
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
161
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
162
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
163
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
164
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
165
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
166
Negative Base-Rate: Exemplar Non-representative Economic News Articles
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
167
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
168
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
169
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
170
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
171
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
172
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
173
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
174
Negative Base-Rate: Exemplar Mixed Economic News Articles
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
175
Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
176
Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses(negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
177
Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
Texas Tech University, Austin Sims, December 2012
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Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (positive)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more optimistic about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun hiring full-time employees and no longer have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more long-term projects, which means my income is more predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is getting better," Billingsley said.
Employment (negative)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. Six months ago she gave up looking for an ad agency job.
“I’m discouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to stagnate, employers are returning to campuses in fewer numbers, often overlooking the next generation of employees,” Sasser said. “Unfortunately, many of my friends are still looking for jobs, and those who are finding jobs aren’t finding them in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really down about the economy.”
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Home Sales (negative)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has no plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has only about half of the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is still hurting from the recession.
"Things are looking down in the construction business," he said. “I still have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has not improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (positive)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of a steady economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are up and they’ve begun to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more upbeat than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The increase in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is moving in the right direction.”
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Consumer confidence points to a downturn in the economy By John Gibbs There are signs of decline in the economy, as the Consumer Confidence Index released Friday for the state and local area seems to confirm that forecast by area economists.
Consumer confidence has fluctuated since the end of January as U.S. job growth numbers have seemingly influenced personal finances and spending. Almost 75 percent of the 5,000 consumers who were surveyed stated they felt less confident about the stabilization of their local economy and the direction it was headed.
Small Businesses (negative)
While many small business owners in the area have a number of specific concerns they have expressed constructive assessments about the future of their own businesses.
Anne Billingsley, a local business owner, said that number is no surprise. Billingsley has become more hesitant about her public relations business, Imagine Now.
“I’ve begun relying less on full-time employees and have to depend on freelance writers, graphic artists and administrative help. I am getting more short-term projects, which means my income is less predictable. I don't think there is any question that the economy is still hurting," Billingsley said.
Employment (positive)
Monthly employment figures continue to inch up and down after a few years of turbulence and uncertainty. The report showed experienced workers, who are defined as workers ages 30 to 54 years old, tended to fare better in most fields, while recent college graduates continue to look for jobs.
When Linh Sasser graduated two years ago with a degree in advertising, she had big ideas about where her career might take her. Although she now admits she entered “a pretty dreadful job market,” she thought she had a strong resume, but was not getting interviews. She had almost given up when six months ago she was hired by an ad agency.
“I’m encouraged by what I have seen recently. As the national economy continues to improve, employers are returning to campuses in greater numbers, looking for the next generation of employees, Sasser said. “Fortunately, a lot of my friends are beginning to find jobs, and many are finding jobs in fields they’re excited about. Everyone seems to be really hopeful about the economy.”
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Home Sales (positive)
The housing market is another potential sign of economic strength. Consumer confidence in the housing industry can give a boost to or limit local residential and commercial construction projects.
Brett Underwood, the owner of a construction management company, said he has plans to hire more people in the upcoming months. He said his business has almost twice the amount of work it can handle because the building industry is now recovering from the recession.
"Things are looking up in the construction business," he said. “I no longer have the mixed feelings and emotions that I had just a few years ago. I definitely feel the economy has improved in our area.”
Personal Finances (negative)
Consumers' expectations for their personal financial situations are typically tied to broad economic indicators. Americans are optimistic about their own wealth when the economy is doing well, and pessimistic in times of economic downturn.
Anthony Lewis, president of R&T Bank and a board member of the local Chamber of Commerce, stated his bank and other businesses are seeing the impact of an uncertain economic atmosphere. Personal loans at his bank are down and they haven’t been able to extend larger lines of credit to local businesses.
“Consumers, whether looking back, forward, or when taking stock of today, are more cautious than they’ve been in nearly five years,” Lewis said. “The decrease in demand for loans from small business as well as from larger businesses makes me believe the economy is still in a state of fluctuation.”
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APPENDICES B
Measures
Intro
Hello, this is an online research project designed to help us understand individual’s perceptions of the economy. To better understand this we ask for your participation. The online questionnaire will take approximately 20 minutes of your time. Your participation is completely voluntary, the information shared with us will remain confidential, and your responses will only be used for research purposes. The Sample Network, an online marketing company, has been hired on behalf of the researchers to help us collect this data. Your email address and answers to the survey will be kept completely separated. The persons responsible for this project are Dr. Trent Seltzer (faculty member in the College of Mass Communications) and Austin Sims (doctoral student in the College of Mass Communications). Please feel free to contact, [email protected] if you have any questions or if you wish to receive a copy of the results of this study. Thank you so much for your willingness to participate in our research study. This study has been approved by the Protection of Human Subjects Committee at Texas Tech University. Texas Tech Human Resources Protection Program (HRPP) Drane Hall, Room 147 Box 41075 Lubbock, TX 79409-1075 (806) 742-2064
Study Info
You will now be asked to read a news article that has been taken directly from a local newspaper. Following the article you will be asked a series of questions regarding a range of topics. Please read each question carefully and answer each of them to the best of your ability.
ECONOMIC LITERACY
EL-Intro We are studying individual's understanding and knowledge of economic issues. For the next set of questions please answer each one to the best of your ability.
EL1 When a person rents an apartment, who benefits from the transaction?
m Only the person renting the apartment
m Only the landlord
m Both the person renting the apartment and the landlord
m Don't know
EL2 In the United States, who determines what goods and services should be produced?
m Producers and government
m Consumers and government
m Producers, consumers, and government
m Don't know
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EL3 Since the resources used in the production of goods and services are limited, society must:
m Reduce their use of resources
m Try to obtain resources
m Make choices about how to use resources
m Don't know
EL4 An increase from 5percent to 8percent in the interest rates charged by banks would most likely encourage:
m Businesses to invest
m People to purchase housing
m People to save money
m Don't know
EL5 The stock market is an example of an institution within our economy that exists to help people achieve their economic goals. The existence of this institution:
m Results in an increase in the price of stocks
m Brings people who want to buy stocks together with those who want to sell stocks
m Helps predict stock earnings
m Don't know
EL6 Which of the following are most likely to be helped by inflation?
m People living on a fixed income
m Banks that loaned money at a fixed rate of interest
m People who borrowed money at a fixed rate of interest
m Don't know
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EL7 Assume that one U.S. dollar is equivalent to 10 Japanese yen. If the value of the dollar appreciates so that one dollar is equivalent to 15 Japanese yen, which of the following occurs?
m The price of all goods produced in Japan but sold in the U.S. will increase
m The Japanese people will import more goods made in the U.S.
m American traveling to Japan find their dollars buy more goods and services
m Don't know
EL8 If your city government sets a maximum amount landlords can charge in rent, what is the most likely result?
m There will be more apartments available than people want to rent
m There will be fewer apartments available than people want to rent
m The number of apartments available will be equal to the number of people that want to rent
m Don't know
EL9 Which of the following methods for reducing pollution would most economists support?
m Increase regulation on all industries that create pollution in the production process or all products that pollute
m Eliminate all pollution since clean air and water are so important
m Reduce pollution until the additional cost of the further reduction is greater than the additional benefit
m Don't know
m
EL10 If the real gross domestic product of the United States has increased, which of the following has also definitely increased?
m The amount of resources used to produce final goods and services
m The prices of final goods and services produced
m The amount of final goods and services produced
m Don't know
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EL11 When the federal government's expenditures for a year are greater than its revenue for that year, the difference is known as:
m The national debt
m A budget deficit
m A budget surplus
m Don't know
EL12 On average, how much more do adults who are college graduates earn per year than adults who are high school graduates only?
m About 10percent more
m About 40percent more
m About 70percent more
m Don't know
EL13 Which of the following types of investments has the greatest risk of losing value due to inflation?
m Buying stocks in the stock market
m Investing money market mutual funds
m Keeping your savings as cash hidden in a mattress or in a piggy bank
m Don't know
m
EL14 Some people prefer to buy mutual funds rather than stocks in a few individual companies because generally mutual funds:
m Guarantee a steadier income than individual stocks
m Provide a higher rate or return than individual stocks
m Provide more diversification than individual stocks
m Don't know
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ARITHMETIC APTITUDE
AA-Intro We are studying how people make sense of the complicated and often confusing facts and figures that are reported in the news media. Could you please give us your estimate or "educated guess" for the set of examples that we have selected from news magazines? PLEASE DO NOT USE A CALCULATOR.
AA1 Example 1: The freeze destroyed 5/16 of the orange crop. Is this less or more than a quarter?
m Less than a quarter
m More than a quarter
m Same as a quarter
AA2 Example 2: In this small community high school, only seven of the 20 seniors passed the exit exam. What percentage of passing students are they talking about?
m 7percent
m 20percent
m 27percent
m 35percent
m 63percent
AA3 Example 3: Doug McKinney got by on a $7,500 income. He is still in disbelief about the promised 20percent pay raise. How much will he make in the future?
m $7,750
m $8,500
m $8,750
m $9,000
m $9,500
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AA4 Example 4: The storm (a tornado) damaged 80percent of all buildings in this small community. What portion of the buildings was damaged?
m 3/4
m 4/5
m 8/12
m 10/18
m 20/30
AA5 Example 5: Last Sunday, 30percent of the 1200 patients at Merion Memorial had visitors. How many hospital patients enjoyed visitations on that day?
m 180
m 300
m 360
m 420
m 680
AA6 Example 6: Two of the eight underweight piglets survived the first two weeks. What is the percentage of surviving piglets?
m 10percent
m 12percent
m 18percent
m 20percent
m 25percent
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AA7 Example 7: This poison proved to be surprisingly effective. Of the 20,000 brown rats tested, 18,000 died within 24 hours. What is the percentage of dying rats?
m 90percent
m 80percent
m 70percent
m 60percent
m 50percent
AA8 Example 8: Only 10percent of those exposed to this virus contract the disease, and only 5percent of those infected die from it. What does this mean for the population of people? Of a million people, how many will die?
m 5
m 50
m 500
m 5,000
m 50,000
AA9 Example 9: According to research conducted by the CDC, the risk of developing this disease from the bite is .00003. Of a million bite victims, how many are at risk of illness?
m 3
m 30
m 300
m 3,000
m 30,000
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AA10 Example 10: Of the 2.5 million annual deaths (in the U.S.), 11,212 are the result of drug overdose. For anyone overdosing on drugs, what is the likelihood of dying from it (in terms of a probability number between 0 and 1)?
m .045
m .0045
m .00045
m .000045
m .0000045
ECONOMIC PERCEPTIONS
P-Intro The next set of questions are designed to help us better understand your perceptions regarding the overall general U.S. economy.
P1 We are interested in your perceptions regarding the overall general state of the U.S. economy at this moment. Would you say the economy is getting better, getting worse, or about the same?
m Getting worse 1
m 2
m 3
m About the same 4
m 5
m 6
m Getting better 7
P1.a Relating back to the previous question, how confident are you in your answer that things will get better, get worse, or stay the same?
m Not very confident 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Very Confident 7
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P2 We are interested in your perceptions regarding the state of the economy at this moment. Do you think the overall state of the economy is:
m Weak 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Strong 7
P2.a Relating back to the previous question, how confident are you in your answer in the overall health of the economy?
m Not very confident 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Very Confident 7
m
P3 Now turning to business conditions --do you think overall business conditions are:
m Weak 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Strong 7
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P3.a Relating back to the previous question, how confident are you in your answer regarding business conditions?
m Not very confident 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Very Confident 7
P4 With regards to the housing market -- do you think the overall housing market is:
m Weak 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Strong 7
P4.a Relating back to the previous question, how confident are you in your answer regarding the housing market?
m Not very confident 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Very Confident 7
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P5 Now turning to unemployment -- do you think overall unemployment is:
m Weak 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Strong 7
P5.a Relating back to the previous question, how confident are you in your answer regarding unemployment?
m Not very confident 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Very Confident 7
P6 With regards to personal finance -- do you think overall personal financial conditions are:
m Weak 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Strong 7
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P6.a Relating back to the previous question, how confident are you in your answer regarding personal financial conditions?
m Not very confident 1
m 2
m 3
m Neutral 4
m 5
m 6
m Very Confident 7
ECONOMIC RECALL
R-Intro Reports about economic issues have become an important component of the daily news. We are studying how people make sense of these reports and also how important and informative they find the various reported economic issues. Please answer the following questions based upon what you remember from the article you read earlier.
R1 Regarding the Consumer Confidence Index, what percent of the public had...
______ positive perceptions of the economy?
R2 Of the 5,000 participants in the study, how many would you estimate were more...
______ optimistic about the economy?
R3 According to the Consumer Confidence Index, would you say those surveyed feel the economy is worse off, about the same, or better off now?
m Worse off 1
m 2
m 3
m About the same 4
m 5
m 6
m Better off 7
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R4 Regarding the Consumer Confidence Index, what percent of the public had...
______ negative perceptions of the economy?
R5 Of the 5,000 participants in the study, how many would you estimate were more...
______ pessimistic about the economy?
DEMOGRAPHICS
D1 How old are you?
m 18-25
m 26-34
m 35-54
m 55-64
m 65 or over
D2 What is your gender?
m Male
m Female
D3 What is your race?
m White/Caucasian
m African American
m Hispanic
m Asian
m Native American
m Pacific Islander
m Other
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D4 What is the highest level of education you have completed?
m Less than High School
m High School / GED
m Some College
m 2-year College Degree
m 4-year College Degree
m Some graduate
m Graduate Degree
D5 In which state do you currently reside?
m Alabama
m Alaska
m Arizona
m Arkansas
m California
m Colorado
m Connecticut
m Delaware
m District of Columbia
m Florida
m Georgia
m Hawaii
m Idaho
m Illinois
m Indiana
m Iowa
m Kansas
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m Kentucky
m Louisiana
m Maine
m Maryland
m Massachusetts
m Michigan
m Minnesota
m Mississippi
m Missouri
m Montana
m Nebraska
m Nevada
m New Hampshire
m New Jersey
m New Mexico
m New York
m North Carolina
m North Dakota
m Ohio
m Oklahoma
m Oregon
m Pennsylvania
m Puerto Rico
m Rhode Island
m South Carolina
m South Dakota
m Tennessee
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m Texas
m Utah
m Vermont
m Virginia
m Washington
m West Virginia
m Wisconsin
m Wyoming
m I do not reside in the United States
D6 Which political party do you feel you most identify with?
m Democratic
m Republican
m Libertarian
m Independent
m Other (please specify) ____________________
D7 Please indicate on the scale below where you believe your political ideology lies.
m Very liberal
m Liberal
m Left of center
m Moderate
m Right of center
m Conservative
m Very conservative
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D8 Please indicate on the scale below how where you believe you are fiscally.
m Very liberal
m Liberal
m Left of center
m Moderate
m Right of center
m Conservative
m Very conservative
D9 Please indicate on the scale below how where you believe you are socially.
m Very liberal
m Liberal
m Left of center
m Moderate
m Right of center
m Conservative
m Very conservative
D10 We value your interest in this research project and would like to know your opinions and input regarding the study. Please let us know what you liked, what you didn't like, or anything else you feel is important.
End
Thank you for participating in this research study. The goal of this project is to better understand how individuals process numerical data versus narrative information. Economic news stories are often full of numbers and percentages, as well as statements and quotes from a variety of sources. Understanding what news factors influence individual's perceptions of the economy helps us better understand how the media potentially affects the overall economy. Once again thank you for your participation and please feel free to contact, [email protected] if you have any questions or if you wish to receive a copy of the results of this study.