Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Corn Situation and Outlook. Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007. Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2007. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2007. U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2007. Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Corn Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Corn Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1992-2007
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
bu
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Price, 1992-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
bu
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Corn Ending Stocks 1996-2007
010002000300040005000600070008000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Mill
ion
bu
sh
els
Foreign Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Corn ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 1304 1304 1304Acres (MPA) 93.2 93.6 94.0Acres (MHA) 85.7 86.1 86.5Yield 152.0 153.0 154.0Supply(M. Bu) 14350 14487 14635 Use:
Feed 5650Ethanol 3200 Food, Seed 1390 Exports 2450
Ending Stocks 1443 1797 2151Projected Price $4.00 $3.60 $3.20
Wheat Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Wheat Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
Bu
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
Bu
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
$6.50
$7.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Wheat Ending Stocks, 1996-2007
010002000300040005000600070008000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Mill
ion
bu
sh
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Wheat ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 456 456 456Acres (M. A. Planted) 60.3 60.4 60.5Acres (M.A. Harvested) 50.9 51.0 51.1Yield 40.4 40.5 40.6Supply(M. Bu) 2603 2613 2620 Use:
Food, Seed 1033 Feed, Resid 125 Exports 1175
Ending Stocks 256 280 304Projected Price $6.75 $6.25 $5.75
Soybean Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Soybean Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
Bu
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
Bu
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Ending Stocks, 1996-2007
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Year
Mil
lio
n B
ush
els
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Meal Ending Stocks, 1997-2007
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
U.S. & Foreign Soybean Oil Ending Stocks, 1997-2007
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Mill
ion
Me
tric
To
ns
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Soybeans ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/LowBeginning Stocks(MB) 573 573 573Acres (MA Planted) 63.5 63.7 63.9Acres (MA Harvested) 62.6 62.8 63.0Yield 40.8 41.3 41.8Supply(M. Bu) 3133 3173 3212 Use:
Crushing 1830 Exports 995 Seed, Feed 163
Ending Stocks 137 185 233Projected Price $10.75 $9.50 $8.75
Grain Sorghum Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Sorghum Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1996-2007
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
Bu
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Production Ending Stocks Price/Bu
U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks and Price, 1996-2007
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
Bu
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008Sorghum ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 32.0 32.0 32.0
Acres (M. P. A.) 7.6 7.7 7.8
Supply(M. Bu) 532 547 559
Use:
Food & Seed 35
Exports 275
Feed 180
Ending Stocks 40 57 74
Projected Price $3.75 $3.50 $3.25
Cotton Situation and Outlook
Historical Perspective and Outlook for 2007
Cotton Production, Ending Stocks, and Price, 1993-2007
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Th
ou
san
d B
ales
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Production Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2007
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Th
ou
san
d B
ales
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Ending Stocks Price(cents/lb)
U.S. & Foreign Cotton Ending Stocks, 1997-2007
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Year
Th
ou
san
d B
ales
Foreign Ending Stocks U.S. Ending Stocks
Supply/Demand Projections:2007/2008 Cotton ----------Supply/Demand ----------
Low/High Exp/Exp High/Low
Beginning Stocks(MB) 9.5 9.5 9.5Acres (M. P. A.) 10.8 10.85 10.9Acres (MA Harvested) 10.5 10.54 10.6Yield 856 864 872Supply(MB) 28.2 28.5 28.7 Use:
Domestic 4.6 Exports 16.2
Ending Stocks 6.1 7.7 9.4Projected Price/cwt $68 $62 $56
What Could Change The Outlook?
South America Plant Mix Non-Farm Economic Conditions in U.S.,
World – Oil Supplies, War Exchange Rates China Weather
