Cornhusker Economics Outlook 2015 Booklet.pdf · 2015/16 P% Millions of Acres ... • For prices to improve exports need to pick up and/or production needs to decline in US and/or

Cornhusker Economics Outlook

York – November 17

Bridgeport – November 18

McCook – November 19

Kearney – November 19

Nebraska City – November 23

Wayne – November 24

Crop Outlook

Cory Walters, Nebraska Extension Crop Economist

Livestock Outlook

Kate Brooks, Nebraska Extension Livestock Economist

Policy Outlook

Brad Lubben, Nebraska Extension Policy Specialist

Farm Finance

Tina Barrett, Director, Nebraska Farm Business, Inc.

Risk Management

Jay Parsons, Nebraska Extension Biosystems Economist

Presented by Nebraska Extension and the UNL Department of Agricultural Economics. Program support provided in part by Great Western Bank.

Crop Market Outlook

Cory WaltersDepartment of Agricultural Economics

[email protected]

1

USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN

2013/142014/15

E2015/16

P %Millions of Acres

Acres Planted 95.4 90.6 88.4 -2.4%Acres Harvested 87.7 83.1 80.7 -2.9%

Bu./Harvested Acre 158.1 171 169.3 -1.0%Millions of Bushels

Beginning Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 40.5%Production 13,829 14,216 13,654 -4.0%

Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,145 -2.2%Use:

Feed and Residual 5,036 5,315 5,300 -0.3%Food, seed, & industrial 6,501 6,568 6,555 -0.2%Ethanol for fuel 5,134 5,209 5,175 -0.7%Exports 1,917 1,864 1,800 -3.4%

Total Use (Demand) 13,454 13,748 13,655 -0.7%

Ending Stocks 1,232 1,731 1,760 1.7%Ending Stocks, % of Use 9.2 12.6 12.9 2.4%U.S. Season Avg. Farm Price, $/ Bu. $6.89 $4.46 $3.65 -18.2%

Source: USDA, WASDE

2

Crop Insurance Information

• If determined today, corn projected price = $3.95

– Implied price floor (put option) across different coverage levels (assumes APH realized yield)

• 85% = $3.36

• 80% = $3.16

• 75% = $2.96

• 70% = $2.77

• Crop insurance will reduce the probability of profit but protect against bad events

3

December 2016 Corn Price Distribution

Average = $3.95/bu

‐900,000

‐800,000

‐700,000

‐600,000

‐500,000

‐400,000

‐300,000

‐200,000

‐100,000

0

100,000

Number of Contracts

Index Traders Minus Non‐Commercial

More Speculators

More Index Traders

4

Corn Outlook• Leaving the year with fewer stocks then entering.

– Lower prices incentivized fewer acres

• For higher prices one of two needs to happen– Improve exports. DDG exports are an important component

– Lower production. Changes likely small. Final numbers come out in January

– Or what?

• Speculators are slightly net short futures contracts.

– What news event will move them as a group?

• Futures market shows a carry– Incentivizing storage over harvest sale

– Common with a large crop

• Export competition growing

• Importers growing as well

Soybeans

5

USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR SOYBEANS2013/14 2014/15 E 2015/16 P %

Millions of AcresAcres Planted 76.8 83.3 83.2 -0.1%Acres Harvested 76.3 82.6 82.4 -0.2%

Bu./Harvested Acre 44.0 47.5 48.3 1.7%Millions of Bushels

Beginning Stocks 141 92 191 107.6%Production 3,358 3,927 3,981 1.4%

Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,203 3.7%Use:

Crushing 1,734 1,873 1,890 0.9%Exports 1,647 1,843 1,715 -6.9%Seed & Residuals 98 145 133 -8.3%

Total Use 3,478 3,861 3,738 -3.2%

Ending Stocks 92 191 465 143.5%Ending Stocks, % of Use 2.6 4.9 12.4 151.5%U.S. Season Average Farm Price, $/Bu $13.00 $10.10 $8.90 -11.9%

Source: USDA, WASDE

6

November 2016 Soybean Price Distribution

Average = $8.74/bu

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1/3/06

7/25/06

2/13/07

9/4/07

3/25/08

10/14/08

5/5/09

11/24/09

6/29/10

1/18/11

8/9/11

5/1/12

1/8/13

9/17/13

5/20/14

12/9/14

6/30/15

Percent

Soybean Market Participants

Index

Commercial

Non‐Commercial35%

52%

13%

7

New Crop Soybeans Outlook• Entered the year with average supplies, leaving

with more than double.– Expect ending stocks to decline as crop year

progresses

• For prices to improve exports need to pick up and/or production needs to decline in US and/or other competing countries (Southern hemisphere)

Wheat

8

USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR WHEAT2013/14 2014/15 E 2015/16 P %

Million AcresAcres Planted 56.2 56.8 54.6 -3.9%Acres Harvested 45.3 46.4 47.1 1.5%

Bu./Harvested Acre 47.1 43.7 43.6 -0.2%

Million BushelsBeginning Stocks 718 590 753 27.6%Production 2,135 2,026 2,052 1.3%Imports 173 149 125 -16.1%

Total Supply 3,026 2,766 2,930 5.9%Use:

Food/Seed 1,032 1,039 1,039 0.0%Feed & Residual 228 120 180 50.0%Exports 1,176 1,159 850 -26.7%

Total Use 2,436 2,013 2,069 2.8%

Ending Stocks 590 753 692 -8.1%Ending Stocks, % of Use 24.2 37.4 33.4 -10.6%U.S. Season Aver. Farm Price, $/ Bu. $6.78 $5.99 $5.00 -19.8%

9

10

‐30,000

‐20,000

‐10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1/3/2

006

6/13

/2006

11/21/2006

5/1/2

007

10/9/2007

3/18

/2008

8/26

/2008

2/3/2

009

7/14

/2009

1/5/2

010

6/15

/2010

11/23/2010

5/3/2

011

10/18/2011

6/12

/2012

11/29/2012

6/11

/2013

12/31/2013

7/15

/2014

12/23/2014

Number of Net Long Contracts

Hard Red Winter Wheat Interest by Speculators

Non‐Commercial

July 2016 KC Wheat Price Distribution

Average = $5.34/buVolatility = .25 (.18 last year)

Wheat Outlook

• US winter wheat crop condition is 51% in good to excellent

• Global production projected to be just under 733 MMT – a record.

• Global ending stocks projected to rise to 228 MMT – a record.– China ending stocks projected to end up at 89 MMT

(39% of world) Quality?

• World consumption projected to rise to 716 MMT – a record

11

• Wheat glut erodes US exports as cheap Russian grain wins buyers

The Big Picture• Modern day war:

– North Korea attacks US (well, actually SONY not a military location)

• US responds with more sanctions

– Russia enters Ukraine• Passenger jet shot down

• Russia annexes crimea

• We place sanctions on Russia

– Syria. We bomb ISIS, Russia bombs terrorists ( everyone except Assad’s regime)

– Russian passenger jet blown up in Egypt

– China, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc..

Overall Outlook• Wars, weather, perception and Ag Policy

– War = influencing exchange rates and thus export markets. Are we helping our ag competition?

– Weather = Will the very strong El Nino persist?

– Perception = Producer investing into crop, more or less?

– Ag Policy = Producer risk exposure going to grow?

Nov. 17th HoldregePhelps County Extension Office

1308 2nd St.Todd Whitney 308-995-4222

Nov. 18th HastingsAdams County Fairgrounds

947 S. Baltimore AveRon Seymour 402-461-7209

Nov. 24th DavenportLittle Blue Natural Resources District

106 N. Juniper AveJenny Rees 402-762-3644

Nov. 30th HartingtonNissen Wine

88973 HWY 57Jim Jansen 402-254-6821

Dec. 1st ColumbusPinnacle Bank310 E. 23rd St.

Allan Vyhnalek 402-563-4901

Dec. 2nd ArlingtonWashington County Fairgrounds

23656 HWY 30Steve Tonn 402-426-9455

Dec. 10th SyracuseKimmel Ag Expo Center

198 Plum St.Monte Vandeveer 402-269-2301

Dec. 15 ScottsbluffPanhandle Research & Extension CTR

4502 Ave IJessica Groskopf 308-632-1247

Dec. 16th SidneyCheyenne County Community CTR

627 Toledo St.Karen DeBoer 308-254-4455

Register by visiting go.unl.edu/marketingworkshopsOr calling the number below for the desired location

12

Livestock Markets

Kate BrooksDepartment of Agricultural Economics

[email protected]

Outline• Beef Industry

• Pork Industry

• Production/Retail Prices

Overview of Beef Industry

– Supplies• Expansion underway

• Imports

• Role of competing meats

– Demand• Important factor, less certain than supply

– Domestic & Export market

Barchart.com

13

% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l % Chg.

Year Comm'l from Dressed from Beef fromQuarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago

(1,000 Head) (Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.)

2015I 6967 -5.5 813 2.2 5664 -3.5

II 7227 -7.8 810 2.7 5855 -5.3III b 7290 -4.5 832 2.8 6066 -1.8IV c 7358 0.4 837 1.8 6155 2.2

Year 28842 -4.4 823 2.4 23740 -2.12016

I 7164 2.8 822 1.1 5889 4.0II 7421 2.7 813 0.4 6033 3.0

III 7608 4.4 835 0.3 6350 4.7IV 7553 2.7 835 -0.2 6305 2.4

Year 29746 3.1 826 0.4 24577 3.52017

I 7445 3.9 827 0.7 6160 4.6II 7720 4.0 816 0.4 6299 4.4

III 7802 2.5 838 0.4 6541 3.0IV 7888 4.4 839 0.5 6615 4.9

Year 30855 3.7 830 0.5 25615 4.2

LMIC Quarterly Forecasts (10/14/15)Live Sltr. % Chg. Feeder Steer Price

Year Steer Price from Southern Plains d

Quarter 5-Mkt Avg Year Ago 7-800# 5-600#($/Cwt.) ($/Cwt.)

2015I 162.43 11.0 215.87 276.14

II 158.11 7.0 225.29 279.32 III 144.22 -9.0 214.38 246.04 IV 136-138 -17.3 186-189 220-224

Year 150-151 -2.6 210-211 254-2582016

I 143-146 -11.0 184-189 226-232II 145-149 -7.0 187-192 229-237

III 140-145 -1.2 183-189 225-234IV 141-147 5.1 179-186 217-226

Year 143-146 -4.0 184-188 225-2312017

I 140-147 -0.7 176-184 220-230II 140-148 -2.0 177-186 223-234

III 135-146 -1.4 174-184 217-230IV 137-147 -1.4 170-182 211-225

Year 140-145 -1.4 176-182 220-228

LMIC Quarterly Forecasts (10/14/15)

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center

G-NP-3010/26/15

14

G-NP-3210/26/15



G-NP-2110/09/15

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC


Data Source: USDA-AMS



G-P-0210/30/15

15

↑ 53% in 2014

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC, Analysis Kate Brooks


↑ 47% in 2014

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC, Analysis Kate Brooks


C-P-6609/24/15

Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC


Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC

Livestock Marketing Information Center 09/24/15

16

C-N-3707/28/15

Data Source: USDA-NASS


9.5%

C-S-1310/30/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS


First three quarters: Heifers: -13%Steers: -2%

Cow-Calf Industry• Expansion is underway

– Profitability potential

– Supply & Demand =how fast & how long

• Moisture conditions

• Understand Costs/Returns in Future

Weaned Calves?• Precondition programs/stocker calves

– VOG vs. COG• Economic profit per head

– Risk level - ROI

• Cornhusker Economics Article: “Annual & Seasonal Price Patterns for Cattle”

• NebGuide G2248: “Economic Considerations for Preconditioning Calves for Feedlots”

17

Feedlot Sector

• 2015 struggle…

• Capacity/structural issues still a concern

11/02/15Data Source: USDA-AMS


C-P-2211/02/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


Latest Data: October 2015

October Cattle on Feed Report• On Feed October 1: +2.3%

– Nebraska: +1.8%

• November Placements: - 4.1%– Nebraska: - 3.8%

• November Marketings: - 2.4%– Nebraska: 7.5%

18

C-S-0810/30/15



C-S-1810/30/15



Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


I-N-0610/13/15

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


19

I-N-0710/13/15



I-N-1210/13/15



Overall• Supply Side

– Rebuilding

– Tipping point of tight supply

• Demand Side– Key factor

– Strengthening dollar???

– Trade issues

– Competing meats

Hog Outlook

20

September 2015Hog Inventory Report

2015(1,000 head)

2015 as % of 2014

All Hogs & Pigs 68,395 103.7

Kept for Breeding 5,986 101.1

Kept for Marketing 62,410 103.9

Under 50 lbs. 20,291 99.5

50-119 lbs. 17,986 103.0

120-179 lbs. 13,080 108.0

180 lbs. and over 11,053 109.5(thousand litters)

June-Aug Farrowings 2,944 98.4

Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions 2,920 97.5

Dec-Feb Farrowing Intentions 2,875 99.3

H-N-5709/25/15

Data Source: USDA-NASS


H-S-0510/30/15



Year-to-date hog slaughter is up 8.8%; pork production is up 8.0%

H-S-2410/30/15



21

H-P-2211/02/15



H-P-0911/09/15

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


2013 = +$6.21 [-$25.60 to +$24.57]2014 = +$61.85 [+$13.15 to +$107.25]2015* = +$7.79 [-$17.77 to +$26.25]2016* = -$1.07 [-$16.10 to +$20.43]

22

Farrow Closeout Total Cost Lean Hog Price Net ReturnMo-Yr Mo-Yr $/carcass cwt $/carcass cwt $/carcass cwtMar-15 Oct-15 62.41 69.31 6.90Apr-15 Nov-15 60.66 51.88 -8.77May-15 Dec-15 60.15 51.91 -8.25Jun-15 Jan-16 61.77 53.81 -7.95Jul-15 Feb-16 62.36 55.89 -6.47Aug-15 Mar-16 62.79 59.30 -3.49Sep-15 Apr-16 63.02 59.99 -3.03Oct-15 May-16 63.64 66.41 2.78Nov-15 Jun-16 64.05 71.96 7.91Dec-15 Jul-16 64.27 73.29 9.02Jan-16 Aug-16 64.23 74.32 10.09Feb-16 Sep-16 64.47 63.19 -1.28Mar-16 Oct-16 63.85 63.19 -0.65Apr-16 Nov-16 63.41 56.76 -6.65May-16 Dec-16 63.40 56.78 -6.62

2013 87.34 90.41 3.072014 75.34 105.89 30.54

Jan-Oct 2015 65.59 71.91 6.32Nov-Dec 2015 60.40 51.89 -8.51

2016 63.44 62.91 -0.53Jan-Apr 2017 64.44 62.01 -2.43

Historical and Projected Iowa Farrow to Finish Returns (as of 11/12/15)(http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/estimated-returns/)

2013 = +$4.77 [-$14.80 to +$22.07]2014 = +$39.48 [+$1.62 to +$84.64]2015* = -$14.46 [-$35.56 to +$4.70]2016* = -$8.42 [-$18.93 to +$10.18]

Lean Breakeven BreakevenPlace Closeout Net Hog SEW Breakeven Lean Hog SEWMo-Yr Mo-Yr Return* FCOG** Price Price* FCOG** Price Price*Apr-15 Oct-15 0.95 39.93 69.31 36.40 40.29 68.85 37.34May-15 Nov-15 -33.56 38.45 51.88 39.42 25.44 68.45 5.86Jun-15 Dec-15 -25.76 38.30 51.91 32.07 28.31 64.63 6.31Jul-15 Jan-16 -17.74 38.30 53.81 27.90 31.43 62.57 10.16Aug-15 Feb-16 -16.24 38.63 55.89 29.74 32.34 63.91 13.49Sep-15 Mar-16 -13.96 38.88 59.30 33.74 33.47 66.20 19.78Oct-15 Apr-16 -17.85 39.17 59.99 38.28 32.25 68.80 20.43Nov-15 May-16 0.12 39.76 66.41 31.79 39.81 66.35 31.91Dec-15 Jun-16 10.18 40.21 71.96 31.79 44.16 66.93 41.97Jan-16 Jul-16 9.02 40.46 73.29 35.00 43.96 68.84 44.02Feb-16 Aug-16 9.11 40.48 74.32 36.95 44.01 69.82 46.06Mar-16 Sep-16 -13.51 40.39 63.19 37.28 35.15 69.86 23.77Apr-16 Oct-16 -12.50 40.02 63.19 37.20 35.18 69.36 24.70May-16 Nov-16 -18.93 39.43 56.76 32.14 32.09 66.10 13.21Jun-16 Dec-16 -18.79 39.39 56.78 32.14 32.11 66.06 13.35

2013 4.77 54.86 90.41 36.78 56.71 88.06 41.552014 39.48 46.53 105.89 54.90 61.83 86.39 94.38

Jan-Oct 2015 -11.42 40.92 71.91 51.45 36.50 77.55 40.03Nov-Dec 2015 -29.66 38.37 51.89 35.75 26.88 66.54 6.09

2016 -8.42 39.59 62.91 33.66 36.33 67.07 25.24Jan-Apr 2017 -9.67 40.29 62.01 31.30 36.54 66.79 21.63

Historical and Projected Iowa Wean to Finish Returns (as of 11/12/15)(http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/estimated-returns/)

* Net return and SEW price is $/head and all other values are $/carcass cwt. ** FCOG = Feeding cost of gain.

23

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC


% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l % Chg.Year Comm'l from Carcass from Pork from

Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago(1,000 Head) (Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.)

2015I 28723 5.9 215 0.8 6161 6.5

II 27848 8.9 213 -1.1 5925 7.6III a 28474 11.4 209 -1.5 5957 9.8IV b 30399 6.2 214 -0.2 6510 6.2

Year 115444 8.0 213 -0.5 24553 7.52016

I 29117 1.4 214 -0.3 6239 1.3II 27491 -1.3 213 0.2 5867 -1.0

III 28249 -0.8 210 0.3 5927 -0.5IV 30425 0.1 215 0.3 6532 0.3

Year 115282 -0.1 213 0.1 24565 0.02017

I 29794 2.3 215 0.3 6406 2.7II 28032 2.0 214 0.2 5996 2.2

III 28820 2.0 210 0.2 6057 2.2IV 31205 2.6 215 0.2 6713 2.8

Year 117851 2.2 214 0.2 25172 2.5

LMIC Quarterly Hog & Pork Forecasts (10/23/15)

Production/Retail Prices



2015: -2.1 2016:+4.2

2015: +4.32016: +2.6

2015: +7.02016: +0.0

24

P-S-0310/22/15

Data Source: USDA/NASS


September+13%

September+19%

September+24%

September+31%

M-C-0710/19/15



M-P-0510/15/15

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS


M-P-1110/15/15

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA-ERS


25

Cost efficiencies & sound management key for profitability

Photo taken by Troy Waltz

Thank You!

[email protected]: farm.unl.eduTwitter: @kbrooksUNL

26

Ag Policy Outlook

Bradley D. Lubben, Ph.D.Extension Assistant Professor, Policy Specialist, and

Director, North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center

Department of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln

Web information – agecon.unl.edu/agpolicy or farmbill.unl.edu

North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center – ncrme.org

E-mail – [email protected]

Agricultural Policy Outlook

National Farm Income Safety Net Budget and Appropriations Trade Bioenergy Biotechnology Food Production/Labeling Environmental

Regulations/WOTUS State

Property Taxes and School Finance

2014 and 2015 Farm Bill Analysis

Predominant enrollment in ARC-CO for Nebraska crops

PLC payments Minimal for 2014 – only peanuts, rice, and canola More significant for 2015 – based on current price

projections ARC payments

Significant for 2014 – but also significant variance by county, crop, and practice across state

Significant for 2015 – variance across state dependent on specific crop yield results

Farm Program Sign-Up ResultsBy Crop Base Acreage in Nebraska

State PLC ARC-CO ARC-IC

Barley 72% 28% 0%Corn 4 96 0Grain Sorghum 43 57 0Oats 20 79 0Soybeans 2 97 1Sunflowers 65 34 1Wheat 55 44 1

Source: USDA-FSA

27







Calculating Program PaymentsPrice Loss Coverage

Price Loss Coverage Payment Rate

MAX of [( _________ - MAX of { ____________________ or ________ }) or 0] = ________ reference national marketing year loan rate PLC rate

price average price

Price Loss Coverage Payment

____________ x _______________ x ____________ x 85% = ________________ PLC rate payment yield base acres PLC payment

2014 PLC Analysis

CommodityReference

Price2014Price

2014 PLC Payment

Rate

Corn ($/bus) $3.70 3.70 $0.00

Grain Sorghum ($/bus) 3.95 4.03 0.00

Soybeans ($/bus) 8.40 10.10 0.00

Wheat ($/bus) 5.50 5.99 0.00

Barley ($/bus) 4.95 5.30 0.00

Oats ($/bus) 2.40 3.21 0.00

Canola ($/pound) 0.2015 0.1700 0.0315

Sunflower Seed ($/pound) 0.2015 0.2170 0.00

Peanuts ($/pound) 0.2675 0.2200 0.0475

Long Grain Rice ($/Pound) 0.1400 0.1190 0.0210

* Analysis based on USDA-FSA prices and program data.

A Look Ahead to 20152014 and 2015 PLC Payment Comparison

CommodityReference

Price2014Price

2014 PLC Payment

Rate2015Price

2015 PLC Payment

Rate

Corn ($/bus) $3.70 $3.70 $0.00 $3.65 $0.05

Grain Sorghum ($/bus) 3.95 4.03 0.00 3.60 0.35

Soybeans ($/bus) 8.40 10.10 0.00 8.90 0.00

Wheat ($/bus) 5.50 5.99 0.00 5.00 0.50

Barley ($/bus) 4.95 5.30 0.00 5.20 0.00

Oats ($/bus) 2.40 3.21 0.00 2.20 0.20

Canola ($/pound) 0.2015 0.1700 0.0315 0.1465 0.0550

Sunflower Seed ($/pound) 0.2015 0.2170 0.00 0.1750 0.0265

Peanuts ($/pound) 0.2675 0.2200 0.0475 0.1900 0.0775

Long Grain Rice ($/Pound) 0.1400 0.1190 0.0210 0.1200 0.0200

* Analysis based on USDA-WAOB/USDA-FSA prices and program data as of November 11, 2015.

28







2014 ARC-CO AnalysisPayments

* Analysis based on USDA-FSA price, yield, and program data as of November 10, 2015.

ARC-CO Benchmark Revenue

_______________________ x ________________________________ = ___________________ 5-year Olympic average 5-year Olympic average national ARC-CO

county yield* marketing year average price ** benchmark revenue

ARC-CO Guarantee

____________________________ x 86% = ____________________ ARC-CO benchmark revenue ARC-CO guarantee

ARC-CO Actual Revenue

____________ x MAX of [ ____________________ or ________ ] = ______________________ county yield* national marketing year loan rate ARC-CO actual revenue

average price

* County yield per planted acre, minimum yield for each year at county T-yield x 70%** National marketing year average price, minimum price for each year at reference price

Calculating Program PaymentsAgriculture Risk Coverage - County

2014 ARC-CO AnalysisOlympic Average Yields


29

2014 ARC-CO AnalysisGuarantees


ARC-CO Payment Rate

MAX of [ 0 or MIN of ({ _________ - ________ } or { __________ x 10% }) ] = _________ ARC-CO ARC-CO ARC-CO ARC-CO

guarantee actual benchmark paymentrevenue revenue rate

ARC-CO Payment

______________________ x _____________ x 85% = __________________ ARC-CO payment rate base acres ARC-CO payment

Calculating Program PaymentsAgriculture Risk Coverage - County

2014 ARC-CO AnalysisCrop Revenue


2014 ARC-CO AnalysisPayments


30

2014 ARC-CO AnalysisGross Revenue with ARC-CO

Payments as a Percent of Guarantees


A Look Ahead to 20152014 and 2015 ARC-CO Payment Comparison

Commodity

2009‐2013 Olympic Average

Yield2014Yield

2014 Yield/

Olympic Average


Yield2015Yield

2015 Yield/

Olympic Average

Corn All 163.7 171.5 105% 163.4 185.2 113%

Corn Irrigated 182.1 196.9 108% 182.6 206.9 113%

Corn Nonirrigated 105.8 114.8 109% 101.8 115.4 113%

Grain Sorghum All 78.7 82.5 105% 77.7 103.4 133%

Grain Sorghum Irrigated 108.2 113.3 105% 110.2 146.6 133%

Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 76.3 75.1 99% 75.1 99.9 133%

Soybeans All 49.3 53.0 107% 49.8 52.4 105%

Soybeans Irrigated 60.0 60.0 100% 59.8 62.8 105%

Soybeans Nonirrigated 43.5 46.7 107% 43.5 45.7 105%

Wheat All 44.7 45.9 103% 44.2 39.0 88%

Wheat Irrigated 56.2 54.0 96% 57.0 50.4 88%

Wheat Nonirrigated 37.7 34.2 91% 35.7 31.6 88%

* Average county yield analysis based on USDA-NASS harvested yield estimates and USDA-FSA program data as of November 10, 2015. Yield projections for 2015 based on USDA-NASS harvested yield estimates for the state total as a percent of the 5-year Olympic average yield applied to 5-year Olympic average yields for all observations.


Commodity


Price2014Price

2014 Price/

Olympic Average


Price2015Price

2015 Price/

Olympic Average

Corn 5.29 3.70 70% 5.29 3.65 69%

Grain Sorghum 5.10 4.03 79% 5.10 3.60 71%

Soybeans 12.27 10.10 82% 12.27 8.90 73%

Wheat 6.60 5.99 91% 6.70 5.00 75%

* Analysis based on USDA-WAOB/USDA-FSA prices and program data as of November 10, 2015.


Commodity

2014Yield/

Olympic Average

2014 Price/

Olympic Average

2014ARC-CO

Payment/ Base Acre

2015Yield/

Olympic Average

2015 Price/

Olympic Average

2015ARC-CO

Payment/ Base Acre

2015 Payment/

2014 Payment

Corn All 105% 70% 59.82 113% 69% 57.32 96%

Corn Irrigated 108% 70% 65.90 113% 69% 64.07 97%

Corn Nonirrigated 109% 70% 30.98 113% 69% 35.73 115%

Grain Sorghum All 105% 79% 17.49 133% 71% 0.00 0%

Grain Sorghum Irrigated 105% 79% 22.53 133% 71% 0.00 0%

Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 99% 79% 20.60 133% 71% 0.00 0%

Soybeans All 107% 82% 14.99 105% 73% 44.71 298%

Soybeans Irrigated 100% 82% 22.12 105% 73% 53.63 242%

Soybeans Nonirrigated 107% 82% 10.10 105% 73% 38.98 386%

Wheat All 103% 91% 6.00 88% 75% 21.64 360%

Wheat Irrigated 96% 91% 15.43 88% 75% 27.94 181%

Wheat Nonirrigated 91% 91% 12.55 88% 75% 17.50 139%

* Analysis based on USDA-NASS harvested yield estimates and USDA-WAOB/USDA-FSA price, yield, and program data as of November 10, 2015. Yield projections for 2015 based on USDA-NASS harvested yield estimates for the state total as a percent of the 5-year Olympic average yield applied to 5-year Olympic average yields for all observations.

31

2015 ARC-CO Analysis

* Analysis based on USDA-NASS harvested yield estimates and USDA-WAOB/USDA-FSA price, yield, and program data as of November 10, 2015. Yield projections for 2015 based on USDA-NASS harvested yield estimates for the state total as a percent of the 5-year Olympic average yield applied to 5-year Olympic average yields for all observations.

Farm Bill OutlookGovernment Program Payments in Nebraska

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015F 2017F

$ M

illio

ns

Fixed direct payments Crop programsDairy programs ConservationSupplemental/disaster assistance Miscellaneous programs

Agricultural Policy Outlook

National Farm Income Safety Net Budget and Appropriations Trade Bioenergy Biotechnology Food Production/Labeling Environmental

Regulations/WOTUS State

Property Taxes and School Finance

Farm Bill Budget

AreaOriginal

2014-2023Baseline

SenateProposal

(S954)

House Proposal(HR1947/

3102)

Agricultural Act of 2014(HR2642)*

($ billions) (change in $ billions)

(change in$ billions)

(change in$ billions) ($ billions)

Commodities $58.8 -$17.4 -$18.7 -$14.3 $44.5

Crop Insurance $84.1 +$5.0 +$8.9 +$5.7 $89.8

Conservation $61.6 -$3.5 -$4.8 -$4.0 $57.6

Nutrition (SNAP) $764 -$3.9 -$39.0 -$8.0 $756

Other Titles $4.0 +$1.9 +1.7 +$4.1 $8.1

Total $973 -$17.9 -$51.9 -$16.5 $956

* HR 2642, the “Agricultural Act of 2014” as reported out of Conference on January 27,2014 passed the House on January 29, 2014 by a 251-166 vote, passed the Senate on February 4, 2014 by a 68-32 vote, and was signed by the President on February 7, 2014.

32

WTO Doha Development Agenda Timeline

1999 - Seattle – no agreement 2001 – Doha – negotiating agenda 2003 – Cancun – no agreement 2004 – Geneva – framework agreement 2005 – Hong Kong – no agreement 2008 – Geneva – progress but no agreement 2013 – Bali – trade facilitation agreement 2015 – continuing Doha Round negotiations?

Current U.S. Trade Negotiations

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) United States Australia Brunei Canada Chile Japan Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Peru Singapore Vietnam

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) United States European Union

Source: Wikipedia

Source: Wikipedia

Current U.S. Trade Negotiations

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Agreement reached and published

• Available at ustr.gov/tpp• Full text at ustr.gov/trade-

agreements/free-trade-agreements/trans-pacific-partnership/TPP-Full-Text

Congressional consideration for ratification and implementation

Potential ag impacts

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)

Hormones in meat production Biotechnology Geographical indicators

Source: Wikipedia

Source: Wikipedia

Sources: Renewable Fuels Association, Energy Policy Act of 2005, and Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007

Corn Ethanol Math: 15 bil gal ÷ 4 gal/bus = 3.75 bil bus ÷ 150 bus/ac = 25 mil acCellulosic Ethanol Math: 16 bil gal ÷ 70 gal/ton = 229 mil ton ÷ 2-6 ton/ac = 38-114 mil ac

U.S. Renewable Fuel Production and Policy Timeline

Data file: renewable energy standard and production.xlsx

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022

Bill

ion

Ga

llon

s

Ethanol Production 2005 RFS RFS (less advanced) Advanced RFS (less cellulosic) Cellulosic RFS

33

The Policy Development Path for Selected Issues

Clean Water Rule/WOTUS Legislative

• Clean Water Act• WOTUS repeal

Exec/Regulatory• Waters of the U.S. definition

Judicial• Federal court/Supreme

Court rulings• District court injunction

delaying the rule Social/Market

• Corporate stewardship/sustainability

• Interest groups/ shareholders/customers

GM Food Labeling Legislative

• House-passed voluntary GM labeling bill – federal preemption

Exec/Regulatory• Labeling rules under any

federal mandate Judicial

• Lawsuit over the Vermont mandatory GM labeling rule

Social/Market• Interest groups/ballot

issues/corporate strategies

Nebraska Policy IssuesProperty Taxes and School Finance

Agriculture and property taxes Agriculture pays about 30% of the

total property tax bill K-12 represents about 60% of the

total property tax bill Property taxes pay about 50% of

K-12 expenses Policy alternatives and issues

Property tax reform State school funding formula School funding levels Other demands on state funding

Ag Policy Outlook

Bradley D. Lubben, Ph.D.Extension Assistant Professor, Policy Specialist, and

Director, North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center

Department of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln

Web information – agecon.unl.edu/agpolicy or farmbill.unl.edu

North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center – ncrme.org

E-mail – [email protected]

34

Table 1. ARC‐CO Yields, Prices, Revenue, and Payments for 2014 Crops in Nebraska

County Name Combined Crop Type

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee

units/acre* $/unit* $/acre units/acre* $/unit* $/acre $/acre $/acre $/acre %

Adams Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 41 5.99 245.59 0.00 0.00 245.59 101

Adams Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Adams Corn All 186 5.29 846.19 173 3.70 640.10 98.39 83.63 723.73 86

Adams Grain Sorghum Irrigated 115 5.10 504.39 139 4.03 560.17 0.00 0.00 560.17 111

Adams Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 79 5.10 346.49 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 120

Adams Soybeans All 58 12.27 612.03 52 10.10 525.20 71.17 60.49 585.69 96

Antelope Wheat Irrigated 52 6.60 295.15 39 5.99 233.61 34.32 29.17 262.78 89

Antelope Wheat Nonirrigated 34 6.60 192.98 26 5.99 155.74 22.44 19.07 174.81 91

Antelope Oats Irrigated 80 3.25 223.60 69 3.21 221.49 2.11 1.79 223.28 100

Antelope Oats Nonirrigated 80 3.25 223.60 46 3.21 147.66 26.00 22.10 169.76 76

Antelope Corn All 180 5.29 818.89 180 3.70 666.00 95.22 80.94 746.94 91

Antelope Grain Sorghum All 84 5.10 368.42 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 113

Antelope Peanuts All 2,788 0.28 668.24 2788 0.22 613.36 54.88 46.65 660.01 99

Antelope Soybeans All 55 12.27 580.37 58 10.10 585.80 0.00 0.00 585.80 101

Antelope Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Arthur Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Arthur Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

Arthur Corn All 147 5.29 668.76 166 3.70 614.20 54.56 46.38 660.58 99

Arthur Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Arthur Soybeans All 51 12.27 538.16 52 10.10 525.20 12.96 11.02 536.22 100

Banner Wheat All 29 6.60 164.60 41 5.99 245.59 0.00 0.00 245.59 149

Banner Oats All 40 3.25 111.80 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 195

Banner Corn Irrigated 134 5.29 609.62 145 3.70 536.50 70.89 60.26 596.76 98

Banner Corn Nonirrigated 46 5.29 209.27 61 3.70 225.70 0.00 0.00 225.70 108

Banner Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Banner Dry Peas All 877 0.14 102.80 1293 0.12 155.16 0.00 0.00 155.16 151

Banner Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Banner Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 45 5.30 238.50 0.00 0.00 238.50 145

Blaine Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Blaine Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

Blaine Corn All 130 5.29 591.42 138 3.70 510.60 68.77 58.45 569.05 96

Blaine Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Boone Wheat Irrigated 58 6.60 329.21 39 5.99 233.61 38.28 32.54 266.15 81

Boone Wheat Nonirrigated 57 6.60 323.53 26 5.99 155.74 37.62 31.98 187.72 58

Boone Oats Irrigated 75 3.25 209.63 66 3.21 211.86 0.00 0.00 211.86 101

Boone Oats Nonirrigated 75 3.25 209.63 44 3.21 141.24 24.38 20.72 161.96 77

Boone Corn Irrigated 184 5.29 837.09 204 3.70 754.80 82.29 69.95 824.75 99

Boone Corn Nonirrigated 136 5.29 618.72 170 3.70 629.00 0.00 0.00 629.00 102

Boone Grain Sorghum All 90 5.10 394.74 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 105

Boone Soybeans Irrigated 58 12.27 612.03 59 10.10 595.90 16.13 13.71 609.61 100

Boone Soybeans Nonirrigated 48 12.27 506.51 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 108

Box Butte Wheat Irrigated 69 6.60 391.64 86 5.99 515.14 0.00 0.00 515.14 132

Box Butte Wheat Nonirrigated 37 6.60 210.01 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 148

Box Butte Oats Irrigated 57 3.25 159.32 136 3.21 436.56 0.00 0.00 436.56 274

Box Butte Oats Nonirrigated 34 3.25 95.03 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 230

Box Butte Corn All 145 5.29 659.66 158 3.70 584.60 75.06 63.80 648.40 98

Box Butte Grain Sorghum Irrigated 48 5.10 210.53 73 4.03 294.19 0.00 0.00 294.19 140

Box Butte Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 19 5.10 83.33 31 4.03 124.93 0.00 0.00 124.93 150

Box Butte Dry Peas All 1,042 0.14 122.14 2116 0.12 253.92 0.00 0.00 253.92 208

Box Butte Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Box Butte Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Boyd Wheat All 51 6.60 289.48 51 5.99 305.49 0.00 0.00 305.49 106

Boyd Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 99 3.21 317.79 0.00 0.00 317.79 183

Boyd Corn All 135 5.29 614.17 141 3.70 521.70 71.42 60.71 582.41 95

Boyd Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Boyd Soybeans All 45 12.27 474.85 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 104

Boyd Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Brown Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Brown Oats Irrigated 58 3.25 162.11 47 3.21 150.87 11.24 9.55 160.42 99

Brown Oats Nonirrigated 58 3.25 162.11 31 3.21 99.51 18.85 16.02 115.53 71

Brown Corn All 174 5.29 791.60 191 3.70 706.70 84.90 72.17 778.87 98

Brown Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Brown Soybeans All 49 12.27 517.06 58 10.10 585.80 0.00 0.00 585.80 113

Brown Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Buffalo Wheat Irrigated 66 6.60 374.62 39 5.99 233.61 43.56 37.03 270.64 72

Buffalo Wheat Nonirrigated 40 6.60 227.04 33 5.99 197.67 26.40 22.44 220.11 97

Buffalo Oats Irrigated 58 3.25 162.11 42 3.21 134.82 18.85 16.02 150.84 93

Buffalo Oats Nonirrigated 58 3.25 162.11 28 3.21 89.88 18.85 16.02 105.90 65

Buffalo Corn All 180 5.29 818.89 160 3.70 592.00 95.22 80.94 672.94 82

Buffalo Grain Sorghum Irrigated 124 5.10 543.86 114 4.03 459.42 63.24 53.75 513.17 94

Buffalo Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 72 5.10 315.79 64 4.03 257.92 36.72 31.21 289.13 92

Buffalo Soybeans All 59 12.27 622.58 54 10.10 545.40 72.39 61.53 606.93 97

Buffalo Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Burt Wheat All 46 6.60 261.10 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 108

1 35



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Burt Oats All 78 3.25 218.01 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 125

Burt Corn Irrigated 190 5.29 864.39 179 3.70 662.30 100.51 85.43 747.73 87

Burt Corn Nonirrigated 168 5.29 764.30 157 3.70 580.90 88.87 75.54 656.44 86

Burt Grain Sorghum All 90 5.10 394.74 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 105

Burt Soybeans All 50 12.27 527.61 46 10.10 464.60 61.35 52.15 516.75 98

Butler Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 64 5.99 383.36 0.00 0.00 383.36 141

Butler Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Butler Corn Irrigated 197 5.29 896.23 195 3.70 721.50 104.21 88.58 810.08 90

Butler Corn Nonirrigated 151 5.29 686.96 168 3.70 621.60 65.36 55.56 677.16 99

Butler Grain Sorghum All 92 5.10 403.51 83 4.03 334.49 46.92 39.88 374.37 93

Butler Soybeans Irrigated 60 12.27 633.13 63 10.10 636.30 0.00 0.00 636.30 101

Butler Soybeans Nonirrigated 49 12.27 517.06 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 105

Cass Wheat All 52 6.60 295.15 44 5.99 263.56 31.59 26.85 290.41 98

Cass Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Cass Corn All 151 5.29 686.96 170 3.70 629.00 57.96 49.27 678.27 99

Cass Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Cass Soybeans All 49 12.27 517.06 50 10.10 505.00 12.06 10.25 515.25 100

Cedar Wheat All 46 6.60 261.10 44 5.99 263.56 0.00 0.00 263.56 101

Cedar Oats All 82 3.25 229.19 87 3.21 279.27 0.00 0.00 279.27 122

Cedar Corn Irrigated 190 5.29 864.39 197 3.70 728.90 100.51 85.43 814.33 94

Cedar Corn Nonirrigated 157 5.29 714.26 172 3.70 636.40 77.86 66.18 702.58 98

Cedar Grain Sorghum All 84 5.10 368.42 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 113

Cedar Soybeans Irrigated 56 12.27 590.92 56 10.10 565.60 25.32 21.52 587.12 99

Cedar Soybeans Nonirrigated 49 12.27 517.06 53 10.10 535.30 0.00 0.00 535.30 104

Cedar Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Chase Wheat Irrigated 73 6.60 414.35 98 5.99 587.02 0.00 0.00 587.02 142

Chase Wheat Nonirrigated 44 6.60 249.74 60 5.99 359.40 0.00 0.00 359.40 144

Chase Oats Irrigated 60 3.25 167.70 104 3.21 333.84 0.00 0.00 333.84 199

Chase Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 69 3.21 221.49 0.00 0.00 221.49 220

Chase Corn All 154 5.29 700.61 185 3.70 684.50 16.11 13.69 698.19 100

Chase Grain Sorghum All 61 5.10 267.55 63 4.03 253.89 13.66 11.61 265.50 99

Chase Soybeans All 55 12.27 580.37 64 10.10 646.40 0.00 0.00 646.40 111

Chase Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Cherry Wheat Irrigated 51 6.60 289.48 62 5.99 371.38 0.00 0.00 371.38 128

Cherry Wheat Nonirrigated 23 6.60 130.55 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 216

Cherry Oats Irrigated 58 3.25 162.11 47 3.21 150.87 11.24 9.55 160.42 99

Cherry Oats Nonirrigated 58 3.25 162.11 31 3.21 99.51 18.85 16.02 115.53 71

Cherry Corn All 160 5.29 727.90 132 3.70 488.40 84.64 71.94 560.34 77

Cherry Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Cherry Soybeans All 39 12.27 411.54 48 10.10 484.80 0.00 0.00 484.80 118

Cherry Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Cheyenne Wheat All 35 6.60 198.66 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 139

Cheyenne Oats Irrigated 55 3.25 153.73 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 213

Cheyenne Oats Nonirrigated 38 3.25 106.21 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 206

Cheyenne Corn Irrigated 147 5.29 668.76 189 3.70 699.30 0.00 0.00 699.30 105

Cheyenne Corn Nonirrigated 53 5.29 241.12 72 3.70 266.40 0.00 0.00 266.40 110

Cheyenne Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Cheyenne Dry Peas All 975 0.14 114.29 2569 0.12 308.28 0.00 0.00 308.28 270

Cheyenne Soybeans All 33 12.27 348.22 51 10.10 515.10 0.00 0.00 515.10 148

Cheyenne Barley Irrigated 48 5.45 224.98 46 5.30 243.80 0.00 0.00 243.80 108

Cheyenne Barley Nonirrigated 32 5.45 149.98 37 5.30 196.10 0.00 0.00 196.10 131

Clay Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 65 5.99 389.35 0.00 0.00 389.35 160

Clay Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Clay Corn All 174 5.29 791.60 203 3.70 751.10 40.50 34.43 785.53 99

Clay Grain Sorghum All 94 5.10 412.28 112 4.03 451.36 0.00 0.00 451.36 109

Clay Soybeans All 56 12.27 590.92 60 10.10 606.00 0.00 0.00 606.00 103

Colfax Wheat Irrigated 55 6.60 312.18 55 5.99 329.45 0.00 0.00 329.45 106

Colfax Wheat Nonirrigated 54 6.60 306.50 37 5.99 221.63 35.64 30.29 251.92 82

Colfax Oats All 75 3.25 209.63 94 3.21 301.74 0.00 0.00 301.74 144

Colfax Corn Irrigated 186 5.29 846.19 202 3.70 747.40 98.39 83.63 831.03 98

Colfax Corn Nonirrigated 153 5.29 696.06 183 3.70 677.10 18.96 16.12 693.22 100

Colfax Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Colfax Soybeans Irrigated 59 12.27 622.58 60 10.10 606.00 16.58 14.09 620.09 100

Colfax Soybeans Nonirrigated 49 12.27 517.06 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 105

Colfax Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Cuming Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 103

Cuming Oats All 74 3.25 206.83 83 3.21 266.43 0.00 0.00 266.43 129

Cuming Corn All 184 5.29 837.09 160 3.70 592.00 97.34 82.74 674.74 81

Cuming Grain Sorghum All 93 5.10 407.90 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 102

Cuming Soybeans All 54 12.27 569.82 52 10.10 525.20 44.62 37.93 563.13 99

Cuming Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Custer Wheat All 38 6.60 215.69 45 5.99 269.55 0.00 0.00 269.55 125

Custer Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 64 3.21 205.44 0.00 0.00 205.44 119

Custer Corn Irrigated 185 5.29 841.64 201 3.70 743.70 97.87 83.19 826.89 98

2 36



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Custer Corn Nonirrigated 106 5.29 482.24 104 3.70 384.80 56.07 47.66 432.46 90

Custer Grain Sorghum All 86 5.10 377.20 67 4.03 270.01 43.86 37.28 307.29 81

Custer Soybeans All 55 12.27 580.37 50 10.10 505.00 67.49 57.37 562.37 97

Custer Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Dakota Wheat All 46 6.60 261.10 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 108

Dakota Oats All 78 3.25 218.01 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 125

Dakota Corn All 172 5.29 782.50 186 3.70 688.20 90.99 77.34 765.54 98

Dakota Soybeans All 47 12.27 495.95 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 110

Dakota Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Dawes Wheat All 33 6.60 187.31 43 5.99 257.57 0.00 0.00 257.57 138

Dawes Oats All 39 3.25 109.01 56 3.21 179.76 0.00 0.00 179.76 165

Dawes Corn Irrigated 124 5.29 564.13 177 3.70 654.90 0.00 0.00 654.90 116

Dawes Corn Nonirrigated 30 5.29 136.48 62 3.70 229.40 0.00 0.00 229.40 168

Dawes Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Dawes Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Dawes Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Dawson Wheat All 45 6.60 255.42 51 5.99 305.49 0.00 0.00 305.49 120

Dawson Oats All 57 3.25 159.32 64 3.21 205.44 0.00 0.00 205.44 129

Dawson Corn All 184 5.29 837.09 202 3.70 747.40 89.69 76.24 823.64 98

Dawson Grain Sorghum All 87 5.10 381.58 80 4.03 322.40 44.37 37.71 360.11 94

Dawson Soybeans All 61 12.27 643.68 62 10.10 626.20 17.48 14.86 641.06 100

Dawson Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Deuel Wheat All 40 6.60 227.04 51 5.99 305.49 0.00 0.00 305.49 135

Deuel Oats All 41 3.25 114.60 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 190

Deuel Corn Irrigated 173 5.29 787.05 182 3.70 673.40 91.52 77.79 751.19 95

Deuel Corn Nonirrigated 58 5.29 263.87 40 3.70 148.00 30.68 26.08 174.08 66

Deuel Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Deuel Dry Peas All 897 0.14 105.14 1555 0.12 186.60 0.00 0.00 186.60 177

Deuel Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Deuel Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Dixon Wheat All 46 6.60 261.10 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 108

Dixon Oats All 74 3.25 206.83 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 132

Dixon Corn All 160 5.29 727.90 179 3.70 662.30 65.60 55.76 718.06 99

Dixon Grain Sorghum All 84 5.10 368.42 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 113

Dixon Soybeans All 47 12.27 495.95 53 10.10 535.30 0.00 0.00 535.30 108

Dixon Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Dodge Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 114

Dodge Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Dodge Corn Irrigated 196 5.29 891.68 194 3.70 717.80 103.68 88.13 805.93 90

Dodge Corn Nonirrigated 162 5.29 737.00 149 3.70 551.30 85.70 72.85 624.15 85

Dodge Grain Sorghum Irrigated 120 5.10 526.32 123 4.03 495.69 30.63 26.04 521.73 99

Dodge Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 99 5.10 434.21 87 4.03 350.61 50.49 42.92 393.53 91

Dodge Soybeans Irrigated 56 12.27 590.92 55 10.10 555.50 35.42 30.11 585.61 99

Dodge Soybeans Nonirrigated 51 12.27 538.16 48 10.10 484.80 53.36 45.36 530.16 99

Douglas Wheat All 47 6.60 266.77 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 117

Douglas Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Douglas Corn Irrigated 194 5.29 882.58 202 3.70 747.40 102.63 87.24 834.64 95

Douglas Corn Nonirrigated 150 5.29 682.41 175 3.70 647.50 34.91 29.67 677.17 99

Douglas Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Douglas Soybeans All 47 12.27 495.95 52 10.10 525.20 0.00 0.00 525.20 106

Dundy Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 56 5.99 335.44 0.00 0.00 335.44 123

Dundy Oats Irrigated 60 3.25 167.70 104 3.21 333.84 0.00 0.00 333.84 199

Dundy Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 69 3.21 221.49 0.00 0.00 221.49 220

Dundy Corn Irrigated 157 5.29 714.26 202 3.70 747.40 0.00 0.00 747.40 105

Dundy Corn Nonirrigated 59 5.29 268.41 64 3.70 236.80 31.21 26.53 263.33 98

Dundy Grain Sorghum All 58 5.10 254.39 74 4.03 298.22 0.00 0.00 298.22 117

Dundy Soybeans All 58 12.27 612.03 69 10.10 696.90 0.00 0.00 696.90 114

Dundy Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Fillmore Wheat All 47 6.60 266.77 56 5.99 335.44 0.00 0.00 335.44 126

Fillmore Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Fillmore Corn All 184 5.29 837.09 194 3.70 717.80 97.34 82.74 800.54 96

Fillmore Grain Sorghum All 96 5.10 421.06 110 4.03 443.30 0.00 0.00 443.30 105

Fillmore Soybeans Irrigated 64 12.27 675.34 65 10.10 656.50 18.84 16.01 672.51 100

Fillmore Soybeans Nonirrigated 38 12.27 400.98 50 10.10 505.00 0.00 0.00 505.00 126

Franklin Wheat All 44 6.60 249.74 26 5.99 155.74 29.04 24.68 180.42 72

Franklin Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Franklin Corn Irrigated 197 5.29 896.23 212 3.70 784.40 104.21 88.58 872.98 97

Franklin Corn Nonirrigated 115 5.29 523.18 77 3.70 284.90 60.84 51.71 336.61 64

Franklin Grain Sorghum All 78 5.10 342.11 55 4.03 221.65 39.78 33.81 255.46 75

Franklin Soybeans Irrigated 61 12.27 643.68 61 10.10 616.10 27.58 23.44 639.54 99

Franklin Soybeans Nonirrigated 40 12.27 422.09 36 10.10 363.60 49.08 41.72 405.32 96

Frontier Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 37 5.99 221.63 31.68 26.93 248.56 91

Frontier Oats All 41 3.25 114.60 75 3.21 240.75 0.00 0.00 240.75 210

Frontier Corn Irrigated 183 5.29 832.54 207 3.70 765.90 66.64 56.64 822.54 99

3 37



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Frontier Corn Nonirrigated 87 5.29 395.80 58 3.70 214.60 46.02 39.12 253.72 64

Frontier Grain Sorghum All 70 5.10 307.02 53 4.03 213.59 35.70 30.35 243.94 79

Frontier Soybeans Irrigated 60 12.27 633.13 65 10.10 656.50 0.00 0.00 656.50 104

Frontier Soybeans Nonirrigated 29 12.27 306.01 25 10.10 252.50 35.58 30.24 282.74 92

Frontier Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Furnas Wheat All 50 6.60 283.80 32 5.99 191.68 33.00 28.05 219.73 77

Furnas Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Furnas Corn Irrigated 187 5.29 850.74 188 3.70 695.60 98.92 84.08 779.68 92

Furnas Corn Nonirrigated 85 5.29 386.70 90 3.70 333.00 44.97 38.22 371.22 96

Furnas Grain Sorghum All 83 5.10 364.04 85 4.03 342.55 21.49 18.27 360.82 99

Furnas Soybeans Irrigated 62 12.27 654.24 54 10.10 545.40 76.07 64.66 610.06 93

Furnas Soybeans Nonirrigated 31 12.27 327.12 33 10.10 333.30 0.00 0.00 333.30 102

Furnas Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Gage Wheat All 45 6.60 255.42 44 5.99 263.56 0.00 0.00 263.56 103

Gage Oats All 59 3.25 164.91 71 3.21 227.91 0.00 0.00 227.91 138

Gage Corn All 138 5.29 627.82 168 3.70 621.60 6.22 5.29 626.89 100

Gage Grain Sorghum All 100 5.10 438.60 103 4.03 415.09 23.51 19.98 435.07 99

Gage Soybeans All 44 12.27 464.30 48 10.10 484.80 0.00 0.00 484.80 104

Garden Wheat All 39 6.60 221.36 54 5.99 323.46 0.00 0.00 323.46 146

Garden Oats Irrigated 55 3.25 153.73 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 213

Garden Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 217

Garden Corn Irrigated 168 5.29 764.30 192 3.70 710.40 53.90 45.82 756.22 99

Garden Corn Nonirrigated 65 5.29 295.71 56 3.70 207.20 34.39 29.23 236.43 80

Garden Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Garden Dry Peas All 863 0.14 101.16 1434 0.12 172.08 0.00 0.00 172.08 170

Garden Soybeans All 46 12.27 485.40 56 10.10 565.60 0.00 0.00 565.60 117

Garden Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Garfield Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Garfield Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

Garfield Corn All 160 5.29 727.90 125 3.70 462.50 84.64 71.94 534.44 73

Garfield Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Garfield Soybeans All 44 12.27 464.30 41 10.10 414.10 50.20 42.67 456.77 98

Garfield Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Gosper Wheat All 53 6.60 300.83 42 5.99 251.58 34.98 29.73 281.31 94

Gosper Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Gosper Corn Irrigated 201 5.29 914.43 213 3.70 788.10 106.33 90.38 878.48 96

Gosper Corn Nonirrigated 93 5.29 423.09 101 3.70 373.70 49.20 41.82 415.52 98

Gosper Grain Sorghum All 73 5.10 320.18 61 4.03 245.83 37.23 31.65 277.48 87

Gosper Soybeans All 57 12.27 601.48 57 10.10 575.70 25.78 21.91 597.61 99

Greeley Wheat Irrigated 54 6.60 306.50 33 5.99 197.67 35.64 30.29 227.96 74

Greeley Wheat Nonirrigated 39 6.60 221.36 22 5.99 131.78 25.74 21.88 153.66 69

Greeley Oats All 57 3.25 159.32 64 3.21 205.44 0.00 0.00 205.44 129

Greeley Corn All 163 5.29 741.55 174 3.70 643.80 86.23 73.30 717.10 97

Greeley Grain Sorghum All 82 5.10 359.65 67 4.03 270.01 41.82 35.55 305.56 85

Greeley Soybeans All 54 12.27 569.82 52 10.10 525.20 44.62 37.93 563.13 99

Greeley Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Hall Wheat Irrigated 55 6.60 312.18 73 5.99 437.27 0.00 0.00 437.27 140

Hall Wheat Nonirrigated 35 6.60 198.66 49 5.99 293.51 0.00 0.00 293.51 148

Hall Oats All 57 3.25 159.32 64 3.21 205.44 0.00 0.00 205.44 129

Hall Corn All 180 5.29 818.89 204 3.70 754.80 64.09 54.48 809.28 99

Hall Grain Sorghum Irrigated 111 5.10 486.85 123 4.03 495.69 0.00 0.00 495.69 102

Hall Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 80 5.10 350.88 34 4.03 137.02 40.80 34.68 171.70 49

Hall Soybeans All 59 12.27 622.58 63 10.10 636.30 0.00 0.00 636.30 102

Hamilton Wheat Irrigated 50 6.60 283.80 69 5.99 413.31 0.00 0.00 413.31 146

Hamilton Wheat Nonirrigated 41 6.60 232.72 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 118

Hamilton Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Hamilton Corn All 198 5.29 900.78 200 3.70 740.00 104.74 89.03 829.03 92

Hamilton Grain Sorghum Irrigated 100 5.10 438.60 112 4.03 451.36 0.00 0.00 451.36 103

Hamilton Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 94 5.10 412.28 107 4.03 431.21 0.00 0.00 431.21 105

Hamilton Soybeans All 62 12.27 654.24 62 10.10 626.20 28.04 23.83 650.03 99

Hamilton Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Harlan Wheat All 50 6.60 283.80 29 5.99 173.71 33.00 28.05 201.76 71

Harlan Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Harlan Corn Irrigated 204 5.29 928.08 207 3.70 765.90 107.92 91.73 857.63 92

Harlan Corn Nonirrigated 101 5.29 459.49 92 3.70 340.40 53.43 45.42 385.82 84

Harlan Grain Sorghum All 78 5.10 342.11 68 4.03 274.04 39.78 33.81 307.85 90

Harlan Soybeans Irrigated 62 12.27 654.24 58 10.10 585.80 68.44 58.17 643.97 98

Harlan Soybeans Nonirrigated 39 12.27 411.54 37 10.10 373.70 37.84 32.16 405.86 99

Harlan Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Hayes Wheat All 46 6.60 261.10 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 108

Hayes Oats Irrigated 59 3.25 164.91 108 3.21 346.68 0.00 0.00 346.68 210

Hayes Oats Nonirrigated 37 3.25 103.42 72 3.21 231.12 0.00 0.00 231.12 223

Hayes Corn Irrigated 172 5.29 782.50 200 3.70 740.00 42.50 36.13 776.13 99

Hayes Corn Nonirrigated 71 5.29 323.01 65 3.70 240.50 37.56 31.93 272.43 84

4 38



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Hayes Grain Sorghum All 64 5.10 280.70 54 4.03 217.62 32.64 27.74 245.36 87

Hayes Dry Peas All 897 0.14 105.14 1861 0.12 223.32 0.00 0.00 223.32 212

Hayes Soybeans All 48 12.27 506.51 64 10.10 646.40 0.00 0.00 646.40 128

Hayes Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Hitchcock Wheat All 52 6.60 295.15 36 5.99 215.64 34.32 29.17 244.81 83

Hitchcock Oats All 40 3.25 111.80 69 3.21 221.49 0.00 0.00 221.49 198

Hitchcock Corn Irrigated 169 5.29 768.85 205 3.70 758.50 10.35 8.80 767.30 100

Hitchcock Corn Nonirrigated 72 5.29 327.56 61 3.70 225.70 38.09 32.38 258.08 79

Hitchcock Grain Sorghum All 77 5.10 337.72 66 4.03 265.98 39.27 33.38 299.36 89

Hitchcock Soybeans All 47 12.27 495.95 61 10.10 616.10 0.00 0.00 616.10 124

Holt Wheat Irrigated 57 6.60 323.53 33 5.99 197.67 37.62 31.98 229.65 71

Holt Wheat Nonirrigated 31 6.60 175.96 16 5.99 95.84 20.46 17.39 113.23 64

Holt Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

Holt Corn All 180 5.29 818.89 165 3.70 610.50 95.22 80.94 691.44 84

Holt Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Holt Soybeans All 55 12.27 580.37 54 10.10 545.40 34.97 29.72 575.12 99

Holt Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Howard Wheat Irrigated 57 6.60 323.53 34 5.99 203.66 37.62 31.98 235.64 73

Howard Wheat Nonirrigated 38 6.60 215.69 17 5.99 101.83 25.08 21.32 123.15 57

Howard Oats All 57 3.25 159.32 64 3.21 205.44 0.00 0.00 205.44 129

Howard Corn All 168 5.29 764.30 173 3.70 640.10 88.87 75.54 715.64 94

Howard Grain Sorghum Irrigated 123 5.10 539.48 123 4.03 495.69 43.79 37.22 532.91 99

Howard Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 87 5.10 381.58 87 4.03 350.61 30.97 26.32 376.93 99

Howard Soybeans All 57 12.27 601.48 53 10.10 535.30 66.18 56.25 591.55 98

Howard Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Jefferson Wheat All 47 6.60 266.77 41 5.99 245.59 21.18 18.00 263.59 99

Jefferson Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Jefferson Corn Irrigated 193 5.29 878.03 217 3.70 802.90 75.13 63.86 866.76 99

Jefferson Corn Nonirrigated 125 5.29 568.68 155 3.70 573.50 0.00 0.00 573.50 101

Jefferson Grain Sorghum All 95 5.10 416.67 90 4.03 362.70 48.45 41.18 403.88 97

Jefferson Soybeans Irrigated 57 12.27 601.48 61 10.10 616.10 0.00 0.00 616.10 102

Jefferson Soybeans Nonirrigated 41 12.27 432.64 43 10.10 434.30 0.00 0.00 434.30 100

Jefferson Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Johnson Wheat All 42 6.60 238.39 40 5.99 239.60 0.00 0.00 239.60 101

Johnson Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Johnson Corn All 133 5.29 605.07 160 3.70 592.00 13.07 11.11 603.11 100

Johnson Grain Sorghum All 91 5.10 399.13 99 4.03 398.97 0.16 0.14 399.11 100

Johnson Soybeans All 44 12.27 464.30 45 10.10 454.50 9.80 8.33 462.83 100

Kearney Wheat All 47 6.60 266.77 39 5.99 233.61 31.02 26.37 259.98 97

Kearney Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Kearney Corn All 193 5.29 878.03 183 3.70 677.10 102.10 86.79 763.89 87

Kearney Grain Sorghum Irrigated 129 5.10 565.79 142 4.03 572.26 0.00 0.00 572.26 101

Kearney Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 93 5.10 407.90 86 4.03 346.58 47.43 40.32 386.90 95

Kearney Soybeans All 60 12.27 633.13 54 10.10 545.40 73.62 62.58 607.98 96

Kearney Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Keith Wheat All 41 6.60 232.72 50 5.99 299.50 0.00 0.00 299.50 129

Keith Oats Irrigated 60 3.25 167.70 96 3.21 308.16 0.00 0.00 308.16 184

Keith Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 64 3.21 205.44 0.00 0.00 205.44 204

Keith Corn Irrigated 179 5.29 814.34 215 3.70 795.50 18.84 16.01 811.51 100

Keith Corn Nonirrigated 73 5.29 332.11 67 3.70 247.90 38.62 32.83 280.73 85

Keith Grain Sorghum All 68 5.10 298.25 61 4.03 245.83 34.68 29.48 275.31 92

Keith Dry Peas All 897 0.14 105.14 1027 0.12 123.24 0.00 0.00 123.24 117

Keith Soybeans All 56 12.27 590.92 64 10.10 646.40 0.00 0.00 646.40 109

Keith Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Keya Paha Wheat All 36 6.60 204.34 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 135

Keya Paha Oats All 50 3.25 139.75 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 138

Keya Paha Corn All 166 5.29 755.20 142 3.70 525.40 87.81 74.64 600.04 79

Keya Paha Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Keya Paha Soybeans All 47 12.27 495.95 39 10.10 393.90 57.67 49.02 442.92 89

Keya Paha Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Kimball Wheat All 25 6.60 141.90 36 5.99 215.64 0.00 0.00 215.64 152

Kimball Oats Irrigated 55 3.25 153.73 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 213

Kimball Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 217

Kimball Corn Irrigated 138 5.29 627.82 148 3.70 547.60 73.00 62.05 609.65 97

Kimball Corn Nonirrigated 30 5.29 136.48 55 3.70 203.50 0.00 0.00 203.50 149

Kimball Grain Sorghum All 26 5.10 114.04 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 226

Kimball Dry Peas All 897 0.14 105.14 1081 0.12 129.72 0.00 0.00 129.72 123

Kimball Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Kimball Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Knox Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 45 5.99 269.55 2.90 2.46 272.01 100

Knox Oats All 83 3.25 231.99 101 3.21 324.21 0.00 0.00 324.21 140

Knox Corn Irrigated 195 5.29 887.13 194 3.70 717.80 103.16 87.69 805.49 91

Knox Corn Nonirrigated 147 5.29 668.76 177 3.70 654.90 13.86 11.78 666.68 100

Knox Grain Sorghum All 84 5.10 368.42 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 113

5 39



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Knox Soybeans Irrigated 58 12.27 612.03 57 10.10 575.70 36.33 30.88 606.58 99

Knox Soybeans Nonirrigated 47 12.27 495.95 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 110

Knox Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Lancaster Wheat All 53 6.60 300.83 50 5.99 299.50 1.33 1.13 300.63 100

Lancaster Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Lancaster Corn All 146 5.29 664.21 155 3.70 573.50 77.23 65.65 639.15 96

Lancaster Grain Sorghum All 95 5.10 416.67 90 4.03 362.70 48.45 41.18 403.88 97

Lancaster Soybeans All 45 12.27 474.85 45 10.10 454.50 20.35 17.30 471.80 99

Lincoln Wheat All 42 6.60 238.39 50 5.99 299.50 0.00 0.00 299.50 126

Lincoln Oats Irrigated 60 3.25 167.70 99 3.21 317.79 0.00 0.00 317.79 189

Lincoln Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 66 3.21 211.86 0.00 0.00 211.86 211

Lincoln Corn All 160 5.29 727.90 173 3.70 640.10 84.64 71.94 712.04 98

Lincoln Grain Sorghum All 69 5.10 302.63 61 4.03 245.83 35.19 29.91 275.74 91

Lincoln Soybeans All 54 12.27 569.82 57 10.10 575.70 0.00 0.00 575.70 101

Lincoln Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Logan Wheat Irrigated 50 6.60 283.80 48 5.99 287.52 0.00 0.00 287.52 101

Logan Wheat Nonirrigated 33 6.60 187.31 32 5.99 191.68 0.00 0.00 191.68 102

Logan Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

Logan Corn Irrigated 187 5.29 850.74 179 3.70 662.30 98.92 84.08 746.38 88

Logan Corn Nonirrigated 82 5.29 373.05 80 3.70 296.00 43.38 36.87 332.87 89

Logan Grain Sorghum All 69 5.10 302.63 65 4.03 261.95 35.19 29.91 291.86 96

Logan Soybeans All 52 12.27 548.71 56 10.10 565.60 0.00 0.00 565.60 103

Logan Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Loup Wheat Irrigated 52 6.60 295.15 24 5.99 143.76 34.32 29.17 172.93 59

Loup Wheat Nonirrigated 32 6.60 181.63 16 5.99 95.84 21.12 17.95 113.79 63

Loup Oats Irrigated 58 3.25 162.11 47 3.21 150.87 11.24 9.55 160.42 99

Loup Oats Nonirrigated 58 3.25 162.11 31 3.21 99.51 18.85 16.02 115.53 71

Loup Corn All 161 5.29 732.45 128 3.70 473.60 85.17 72.39 545.99 75

Loup Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Loup Soybeans All 50 12.27 527.61 31 10.10 313.10 61.35 52.15 365.25 69

Mcpherson Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Mcpherson Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

Mcpherson Corn All 164 5.29 746.10 168 3.70 621.60 86.76 73.75 695.35 93

Mcpherson Soybeans All 51 12.27 538.16 52 10.10 525.20 12.96 11.02 536.22 100

Mcpherson Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Madison Wheat All 45 6.60 255.42 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 110

Madison Oats All 78 3.25 218.01 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 125

Madison Corn Irrigated 190 5.29 864.39 201 3.70 743.70 100.51 85.43 829.13 96

Madison Corn Nonirrigated 147 5.29 668.76 163 3.70 603.10 65.66 55.81 658.91 99

Madison Grain Sorghum All 90 5.10 394.74 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 105

Madison Soybeans Irrigated 57 12.27 601.48 56 10.10 565.60 35.88 30.50 596.10 99

Madison Soybeans Nonirrigated 47 12.27 495.95 47 10.10 474.70 21.25 18.06 492.76 99

Merrick Wheat Irrigated 51 6.60 289.48 27 5.99 161.73 33.66 28.61 190.34 66

Merrick Wheat Nonirrigated 32 6.60 181.63 18 5.99 107.82 21.12 17.95 125.77 69

Merrick Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Merrick Corn All 171 5.29 777.95 179 3.70 662.30 90.46 76.89 739.19 95

Merrick Grain Sorghum Irrigated 120 5.10 526.32 123 4.03 495.69 30.63 26.04 521.73 99

Merrick Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 88 5.10 385.97 87 4.03 350.61 35.36 30.06 380.67 99

Merrick Soybeans All 58 12.27 612.03 57 10.10 575.70 36.33 30.88 606.58 99

Morrill Wheat Irrigated 56 6.60 317.86 83 5.99 497.17 0.00 0.00 497.17 156

Morrill Wheat Nonirrigated 32 6.60 181.63 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 155

Morrill Oats Irrigated 55 3.25 153.73 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 213

Morrill Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 217

Morrill Corn All 152 5.29 691.51 175 3.70 647.50 44.01 37.41 684.91 99

Morrill Grain Sorghum Irrigated 45 5.10 197.37 73 4.03 294.19 0.00 0.00 294.19 149

Morrill Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 18 5.10 78.95 31 4.03 124.93 0.00 0.00 124.93 158

Morrill Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Morrill Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Nance Wheat All 42 6.60 238.39 55 5.99 329.45 0.00 0.00 329.45 138

Nance Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Nance Corn Irrigated 185 5.29 841.64 199 3.70 736.30 97.87 83.19 819.49 97

Nance Corn Nonirrigated 138 5.29 627.82 152 3.70 562.40 65.42 55.61 618.01 98

Nance Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Nance Soybeans Irrigated 57 12.27 601.48 60 10.10 606.00 0.00 0.00 606.00 101

Nance Soybeans Nonirrigated 50 12.27 527.61 51 10.10 515.10 12.51 10.63 525.73 100

Nemaha Wheat All 47 6.60 266.77 28 5.99 167.72 31.02 26.37 194.09 73

Nemaha Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Nemaha Corn All 149 5.29 677.86 177 3.70 654.90 22.96 19.52 674.42 99

Nemaha Grain Sorghum All 96 5.10 421.06 105 4.03 423.15 0.00 0.00 423.15 100

Nemaha Soybeans All 46 12.27 485.40 47 10.10 474.70 10.70 9.09 483.79 100

Nemaha Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Nuckolls Wheat All 42 6.60 238.39 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 131

Nuckolls Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Nuckolls Corn Irrigated 199 5.29 905.33 218 3.70 806.60 98.73 83.92 890.52 98

6 40



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Nuckolls Corn Nonirrigated 125 5.29 568.68 151 3.70 558.70 9.98 8.48 567.18 100

Nuckolls Grain Sorghum All 103 5.10 451.76 110 4.03 443.30 8.46 7.19 450.49 100

Nuckolls Soybeans Irrigated 65 12.27 685.89 66 10.10 666.60 19.29 16.40 683.00 100

Nuckolls Soybeans Nonirrigated 41 12.27 432.64 48 10.10 484.80 0.00 0.00 484.80 112

Otoe Wheat All 49 6.60 278.12 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 112

Otoe Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Otoe Corn All 133 5.29 605.07 159 3.70 588.30 16.77 14.25 602.55 100

Otoe Grain Sorghum All 98 5.10 429.83 105 4.03 423.15 6.68 5.68 428.83 100

Otoe Soybeans All 44 12.27 464.30 43 10.10 434.30 30.00 25.50 459.80 99

Pawnee Wheat All 42 6.60 238.39 36 5.99 215.64 22.75 19.34 234.98 99

Pawnee Oats All 61 3.25 170.50 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 132

Pawnee Corn All 120 5.29 545.93 150 3.70 555.00 0.00 0.00 555.00 102

Pawnee Grain Sorghum All 90 5.10 394.74 109 4.03 439.27 0.00 0.00 439.27 111

Pawnee Soybeans All 40 12.27 422.09 45 10.10 454.50 0.00 0.00 454.50 108

Pawnee Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Perkins Wheat All 39 6.60 221.36 64 5.99 383.36 0.00 0.00 383.36 173

Perkins Oats Irrigated 46 3.25 128.57 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 255

Perkins Oats Nonirrigated 24 3.25 67.08 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 325

Perkins Corn Irrigated 178 5.29 809.79 210 3.70 777.00 32.79 27.87 804.87 99

Perkins Corn Nonirrigated 67 5.29 304.81 94 3.70 347.80 0.00 0.00 347.80 114

Perkins Grain Sorghum Irrigated 96 5.10 421.06 84 4.03 338.52 48.96 41.62 380.14 90

Perkins Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 44 5.10 192.98 37 4.03 149.11 22.44 19.07 168.18 87

Perkins Dry Peas All 899 0.14 105.38 2504 0.12 300.48 0.00 0.00 300.48 285

Perkins Soybeans All 54 12.27 569.82 65 10.10 656.50 0.00 0.00 656.50 115

Perkins Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Phelps Wheat Irrigated 60 6.60 340.56 47 5.99 281.53 39.60 33.66 315.19 93

Phelps Wheat Nonirrigated 46 6.60 261.10 15 5.99 89.85 30.36 25.81 115.66 44

Phelps Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Phelps Corn All 201 5.29 914.43 211 3.70 780.70 106.33 90.38 871.08 95

Phelps Grain Sorghum Irrigated 135 5.10 592.11 108 4.03 435.24 68.85 58.52 493.76 83

Phelps Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 95 5.10 416.67 110 4.03 443.30 0.00 0.00 443.30 106

Phelps Soybeans All 64 12.27 675.34 59 10.10 595.90 78.53 66.75 662.65 98

Pierce Wheat Irrigated 52 6.60 295.15 39 5.99 233.61 34.32 29.17 262.78 89

Pierce Wheat Nonirrigated 43 6.60 244.07 26 5.99 155.74 28.38 24.12 179.86 74

Pierce Oats All 66 3.25 184.47 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 148

Pierce Corn Irrigated 195 5.29 887.13 188 3.70 695.60 103.16 87.69 783.29 88

Pierce Corn Nonirrigated 141 5.29 641.47 157 3.70 580.90 60.57 51.48 632.38 99

Pierce Grain Sorghum All 69 5.10 302.63 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 137

Pierce Soybeans Irrigated 57 12.27 601.48 53 10.10 535.30 66.18 56.25 591.55 98

Pierce Soybeans Nonirrigated 46 12.27 485.40 51 10.10 515.10 0.00 0.00 515.10 106

Pierce Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Platte Wheat Irrigated 56 6.60 317.86 48 5.99 287.52 30.34 25.79 313.31 99

Platte Wheat Nonirrigated 46 6.60 261.10 32 5.99 191.68 30.36 25.81 217.49 83

Platte Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Platte Corn Irrigated 195 5.29 887.13 205 3.70 758.50 103.16 87.69 846.19 95

Platte Corn Nonirrigated 155 5.29 705.16 173 3.70 640.10 65.06 55.30 695.40 99

Platte Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Platte Soybeans Irrigated 59 12.27 622.58 60 10.10 606.00 16.58 14.09 620.09 100

Platte Soybeans Nonirrigated 49 12.27 517.06 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 105

Platte Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Polk Wheat All 45 6.60 255.42 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 122

Polk Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Polk Corn All 172 5.29 782.50 187 3.70 691.90 90.60 77.01 768.91 98

Polk Grain Sorghum Irrigated 133 5.10 583.34 127 4.03 511.81 67.83 57.66 569.47 98

Polk Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 104 5.10 456.14 89 4.03 358.67 53.04 45.08 403.75 89

Polk Soybeans Irrigated 62 12.27 654.24 66 10.10 666.60 0.00 0.00 666.60 102

Polk Soybeans Nonirrigated 50 12.27 527.61 58 10.10 585.80 0.00 0.00 585.80 111

Red Willow Wheat All 56 6.60 317.86 36 5.99 215.64 36.96 31.42 247.06 78

Red Willow Oats Irrigated 59 3.25 164.91 108 3.21 346.68 0.00 0.00 346.68 210

Red Willow Oats Nonirrigated 37 3.25 103.42 72 3.21 231.12 0.00 0.00 231.12 223

Red Willow Corn Irrigated 182 5.29 827.99 201 3.70 743.70 84.29 71.65 815.35 98

Red Willow Corn Nonirrigated 86 5.29 391.25 75 3.70 277.50 45.49 38.67 316.17 81

Red Willow Grain Sorghum All 76 5.10 333.34 56 4.03 225.68 38.76 32.95 258.63 78

Red Willow Dry Peas All 897 0.14 105.14 1861 0.12 223.32 0.00 0.00 223.32 212

Red Willow Soybeans All 53 12.27 559.27 61 10.10 616.10 0.00 0.00 616.10 110

Red Willow Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Richardson Wheat All 52 6.60 295.15 48 5.99 287.52 7.63 6.49 294.01 100

Richardson Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Richardson Corn All 151 5.29 686.96 181 3.70 669.70 17.26 14.67 684.37 100

Richardson Grain Sorghum All 105 5.10 460.53 105 4.03 423.15 37.38 31.77 454.92 99

Richardson Soybeans All 47 12.27 495.95 51 10.10 515.10 0.00 0.00 515.10 104

Richardson Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Rock Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Rock Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

7 41



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Rock Corn All 167 5.29 759.75 173 3.70 640.10 88.34 75.09 715.19 94

Rock Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Rock Soybeans All 50 12.27 527.61 48 10.10 484.80 42.81 36.39 521.19 99

Rock Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Saline Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 37 5.99 221.63 22.44 19.07 240.70 99

Saline Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Saline Corn Irrigated 198 5.29 900.78 192 3.70 710.40 104.74 89.03 799.43 89

Saline Corn Nonirrigated 121 5.29 550.48 153 3.70 566.10 0.00 0.00 566.10 103

Saline Grain Sorghum All 85 5.10 372.81 96 4.03 386.88 0.00 0.00 386.88 104

Saline Soybeans Irrigated 61 12.27 643.68 60 10.10 606.00 37.68 32.03 638.03 99

Saline Soybeans Nonirrigated 39 12.27 411.54 46 10.10 464.60 0.00 0.00 464.60 113

Saline Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Sarpy Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 114

Sarpy Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Sarpy Corn All 159 5.29 723.35 198 3.70 732.60 0.00 0.00 732.60 101

Sarpy Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Sarpy Soybeans All 50 12.27 527.61 58 10.10 585.80 0.00 0.00 585.80 111

Saunders Wheat All 50 6.60 283.80 66 5.99 395.34 0.00 0.00 395.34 139

Saunders Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 97 3.21 311.37 0.00 0.00 311.37 155

Saunders Corn Irrigated 191 5.29 868.94 213 3.70 788.10 80.84 68.71 856.81 99

Saunders Corn Nonirrigated 151 5.29 686.96 171 3.70 632.70 54.26 46.12 678.82 99

Saunders Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Saunders Soybeans Irrigated 60 12.27 633.13 62 10.10 626.20 6.93 5.89 632.09 100

Saunders Soybeans Nonirrigated 47 12.27 495.95 53 10.10 535.30 0.00 0.00 535.30 108

Scotts Bluff Wheat Irrigated 51 6.60 289.48 79 5.99 473.21 0.00 0.00 473.21 163

Scotts Bluff Wheat Nonirrigated 21 6.60 119.20 41 5.99 245.59 0.00 0.00 245.59 206

Scotts Bluff Oats Irrigated 55 3.25 153.73 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 213

Scotts Bluff Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 217

Scotts Bluff Corn All 150 5.29 682.41 177 3.70 654.90 27.51 23.38 678.28 99

Scotts Bluff Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Scotts Bluff Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Scotts Bluff Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Seward Wheat All 47 6.60 266.77 56 5.99 335.44 0.00 0.00 335.44 126

Seward Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Seward Corn Irrigated 192 5.29 873.48 217 3.70 802.90 70.58 59.99 862.89 99

Seward Corn Nonirrigated 138 5.29 627.82 162 3.70 599.40 28.42 24.16 623.56 99

Seward Grain Sorghum All 104 5.10 456.14 111 4.03 447.33 8.81 7.49 454.82 100

Seward Soybeans Irrigated 63 12.27 664.79 66 10.10 666.60 0.00 0.00 666.60 100

Seward Soybeans Nonirrigated 46 12.27 485.40 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 102

Sheridan Wheat All 37 6.60 210.01 45 5.99 269.55 0.00 0.00 269.55 128

Sheridan Oats Irrigated 55 3.25 153.73 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 213

Sheridan Oats Nonirrigated 39 3.25 109.01 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 200

Sheridan Corn Irrigated 162 5.29 737.00 198 3.70 732.60 4.40 3.74 736.34 100

Sheridan Corn Nonirrigated 55 5.29 250.22 75 3.70 277.50 0.00 0.00 277.50 111

Sheridan Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Sheridan Dry Peas All 1,052 0.14 123.32 2338 0.12 280.56 0.00 0.00 280.56 228

Sheridan Soybeans All 36 12.27 379.88 49 10.10 494.90 0.00 0.00 494.90 130

Sheridan Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Sherman Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 25 5.99 149.75 28.38 24.12 173.87 71

Sherman Oats All 57 3.25 159.32 64 3.21 205.44 0.00 0.00 205.44 129

Sherman Corn Irrigated 188 5.29 855.29 169 3.70 625.30 99.45 84.53 709.83 83

Sherman Corn Nonirrigated 106 5.29 482.24 106 3.70 392.20 56.07 47.66 439.86 91

Sherman Grain Sorghum All 86 5.10 377.20 67 4.03 270.01 43.86 37.28 307.29 81

Sherman Soybeans Irrigated 61 12.27 643.68 51 10.10 515.10 74.85 63.62 578.72 90

Sherman Soybeans Nonirrigated 41 12.27 432.64 38 10.10 383.80 48.84 41.51 425.31 98

Sherman Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Sioux Wheat Irrigated 60 6.60 340.56 63 5.99 377.37 0.00 0.00 377.37 111

Sioux Wheat Nonirrigated 27 6.60 153.25 49 5.99 293.51 0.00 0.00 293.51 192

Sioux Oats Irrigated 55 3.25 153.73 102 3.21 327.42 0.00 0.00 327.42 213

Sioux Oats Nonirrigated 36 3.25 100.62 68 3.21 218.28 0.00 0.00 218.28 217

Sioux Corn All 157 5.29 714.26 172 3.70 636.40 77.86 66.18 702.58 98

Sioux Grain Sorghum All 43 5.10 188.60 64 4.03 257.92 0.00 0.00 257.92 137

Sioux Barley All 35 5.45 164.05 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 123

Stanton Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 103

Stanton Oats All 79 3.25 220.81 79 3.21 253.59 0.00 0.00 253.59 115

Stanton Corn All 173 5.29 787.05 169 3.70 625.30 91.52 77.79 703.09 89

Stanton Grain Sorghum All 93 5.10 407.90 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 102

Stanton Soybeans All 50 12.27 527.61 52 10.10 525.20 2.41 2.05 527.25 100

Stanton Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Thayer Wheat All 45 6.60 255.42 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 108

Thayer Oats All 62 3.25 173.29 70 3.21 224.70 0.00 0.00 224.70 130

Thayer Corn Irrigated 202 5.29 918.98 220 3.70 814.00 104.98 89.23 903.23 98

Thayer Corn Nonirrigated 118 5.29 536.83 147 3.70 543.90 0.00 0.00 543.90 101

Thayer Grain Sorghum All 102 5.10 447.37 101 4.03 407.03 40.34 34.29 441.32 99

8 42



ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Yield

ARC‐CO

2009‐13 Oly

Avg Price

ARC‐CO

2014

Revenue

Guarantee

2014

Yield/

Planted

Acre

2014

ARC‐CO

Price

2014

ARC‐CO

Revenue

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment Rate

per Paid Acre

2014 ARC‐CO

Payment per Base

Acre Including 85%

Paid Acre Factor

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment

2014 Revenue

per Base Acre

Including ARC‐

CO Payment as

a % of ARC‐CO

Guarantee


Thayer Soybeans Irrigated 64 12.27 675.34 66 10.10 666.60 8.74 7.43 674.03 100

Thayer Soybeans Nonirrigated 41 12.27 432.64 48 10.10 484.80 0.00 0.00 484.80 112

Thomas Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Thomas Oats All 58 3.25 162.11 60 3.21 192.60 0.00 0.00 192.60 119

Thomas Corn All 153 5.29 696.06 162 3.70 599.40 80.94 68.80 668.20 96

Thomas Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Thurston Wheat All 54 6.60 306.50 62 5.99 371.38 0.00 0.00 371.38 121

Thurston Oats All 74 3.25 206.83 65 3.21 208.65 0.00 0.00 208.65 101

Thurston Corn All 176 5.29 800.69 177 3.70 654.90 93.10 79.14 734.04 92

Thurston Grain Sorghum All 84 5.10 368.42 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 113

Thurston Dry Peas All 897 0.14 105.14 1861 0.12 223.32 0.00 0.00 223.32 212

Thurston Soybeans All 51 12.27 538.16 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 101

Thurston Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Valley Wheat All 41 6.60 232.72 26 5.99 155.74 27.06 23.00 178.74 77

Valley Oats Irrigated 58 3.25 162.11 42 3.21 134.82 18.85 16.02 150.84 93

Valley Oats Nonirrigated 58 3.25 162.11 28 3.21 89.88 18.85 16.02 105.90 65

Valley Corn All 164 5.29 746.10 157 3.70 580.90 86.76 73.75 654.65 88

Valley Grain Sorghum All 82 5.10 359.65 67 4.03 270.01 41.82 35.55 305.56 85

Valley Soybeans All 52 12.27 548.71 51 10.10 515.10 33.61 28.57 543.67 99

Valley Barley All 36 5.45 168.73 38 5.30 201.40 0.00 0.00 201.40 119

Washington Wheat All 48 6.60 272.45 52 5.99 311.48 0.00 0.00 311.48 114

Washington Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

Washington Corn All 161 5.29 732.45 146 3.70 540.20 85.17 72.39 612.59 84

Washington Grain Sorghum All 101 5.10 442.99 103 4.03 415.09 27.90 23.72 438.81 99

Washington Soybeans All 49 12.27 517.06 47 10.10 474.70 42.36 36.01 510.71 99

Wayne Wheat All 46 6.60 261.10 47 5.99 281.53 0.00 0.00 281.53 108

Wayne Oats All 83 3.25 231.99 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 118

Wayne Corn All 175 5.29 796.15 183 3.70 677.10 92.58 78.69 755.79 95

Wayne Grain Sorghum All 84 5.10 368.42 103 4.03 415.09 0.00 0.00 415.09 113

Wayne Soybeans All 50 12.27 527.61 54 10.10 545.40 0.00 0.00 545.40 103

Wayne Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Webster Wheat All 41 6.60 232.72 31 5.99 185.69 27.06 23.00 208.69 90

Webster Oats All 51 3.25 142.55 40 3.21 128.40 14.15 12.03 140.43 99

Webster Corn Irrigated 195 5.29 887.13 197 3.70 728.90 103.16 87.69 816.59 92

Webster Corn Nonirrigated 108 5.29 491.34 102 3.70 377.40 57.13 48.56 425.96 87

Webster Grain Sorghum All 95 5.10 416.67 76 4.03 306.28 48.45 41.18 347.46 83

Webster Dry Peas All 897 0.14 105.14 1861 0.12 223.32 0.00 0.00 223.32 212

Webster Soybeans Irrigated 61 12.27 643.68 60 10.10 606.00 37.68 32.03 638.03 99

Webster Soybeans Nonirrigated 37 12.27 390.43 36 10.10 363.60 26.83 22.81 386.41 99

Webster Barley All 43 5.45 201.54 38 5.30 201.40 0.14 0.12 201.52 100

Wheeler Wheat All 43 6.60 244.07 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 113

Wheeler Oats Irrigated 58 3.25 162.11 47 3.21 150.87 11.24 9.55 160.42 99

Wheeler Oats Nonirrigated 58 3.25 162.11 31 3.21 99.51 18.85 16.02 115.53 71

Wheeler Corn All 163 5.29 741.55 194 3.70 717.80 23.75 20.19 737.99 100

Wheeler Grain Sorghum All 67 5.10 293.86 65 4.03 261.95 31.91 27.12 289.07 98

Wheeler Soybeans All 52 12.27 548.71 57 10.10 575.70 0.00 0.00 575.70 105

York Wheat Irrigated 52 6.60 295.15 69 5.99 413.31 0.00 0.00 413.31 140

York Wheat Nonirrigated 44 6.60 249.74 46 5.99 275.54 0.00 0.00 275.54 110

York Oats All 72 3.25 201.24 85 3.21 272.85 0.00 0.00 272.85 136

York Corn All 194 5.29 882.58 186 3.70 688.20 102.63 87.24 775.44 88

York Grain Sorghum Irrigated 116 5.10 508.78 122 4.03 491.66 17.12 14.55 506.21 99

York Grain Sorghum Nonirrigated 96 5.10 421.06 99 4.03 398.97 22.09 18.78 417.75 99

York Soybeans All 59 12.27 622.58 61 10.10 616.10 6.48 5.51 621.61 100

* Units in bushels for barley, corn, flaxseed, grain sorghum, oats, soybeans, and wheat; units in pounds for chickpeas, canola, dry peas, mustard seed, safflower, and sunflower seed

Note: Revenue and ARC‐CO payments calculated using USDA‐FSA final prices and yields per planted acre available as of November 9, 2015. Dawes and Sioux County calculations reflect USDA‐FSA compilation of Dawes

County and North Sioux County in one grouping (Dawes) and South Sioux County in another grouping (Sioux). Total payments are subject to announced 6.8% reduction for budget sequestration not factored into

estimates.

9 43

44

2016 Farm Financial OutlookNebraska Farm Business, Inc.

www.nfbi.net

The Nebraska Farm Business Association was started in 1976 as part of Cooperative Extension &

The University of Nebraska

In 2002, NFBA became NFBI and we officially became a private

company.

Today we work closely with the University, with teaching, research & extension projects

Nebraska Farm Business, Inc.

Goal: To Help Educate Farmers &

Ranchers with Record Keeping and Management Through Financial

Analysis.

Financial Analysis

Tax Planning

Accounting

Tax Mangmnt

Payroll

Cash Flow

Planning

Business Planning


▪ Personalized Service

▪ Consultants work one on one with clients

▪ Customized Services

▪ Clients can choose and pay only for the services they want and need

▪ Convenience

▪ Travel throughout Nebraska and meet in our Lincoln office several times a year to meet with clients

▪ Our Clients

▪ We serve large and small farms, farm partnerships, and corporations all over Nebraska

About Nebraska Farm Business, Inc.

45

▪ Cash

▪ Income received during the year minus expenses paid during the year.

▪ Generally used for tax purposes

▪ Accrual

▪ Income earned in the year minus the expenses incurred during the year.

▪ Used for analysis purposes

▪ Accrual accounting is vital to knowing and understanding the financial health of a business. Cash basis records should be converted to an accrual basis annually (at a minimum) to measure the true growth of the farming business

Cash vs. Accrual

▪ All of the Farm Financial Analysis participants information is combined to one database

▪ NFBI takes that information and generates the average books

▪ Whole State

▪ Regional

▪ Top Efficient

▪ Quickfacts

▪ These resources provide a great benchmarking tool, allowing the producer to see where they are on a scale of those operations that are similar to theirs

Nebraska Averages

Net Farm Income Review

2014 Review

▪ 2014 saw extreme weather conditions

▪ Mother’s Day tornado near Beaver Crossing, NE – May 11th

▪ June 3rd Hail Storm

▪ Pilger Tornado – June 16th

▪ Kenesaw Area Hail Storm – July 9th

▪ Crop Prices Fell Again

▪ Soybean Price Falls from $12.30 to $9.50

▪ Livestock Prices Soared

▪ 1,000# calves raise from $151 to $202

46

Net Farm Income Trend

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Farm Income

Net Farm Income

Crop vs Livestock Farms

$‐

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Farm Income by Enterprise

Crop Crop & Beef

Behind the Numbers

▪ Net Farm Income Range:

▪ $2.2 Million to ‐$500,000

▪ Gross Income Range:

▪ $14 Million to $50,000

▪ Age of Operator Range:

▪ 24 to 81

▪ Crop Acre Range:

▪ Zero to 4,700

So Where Are We Headed?

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Net Farm Income

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

A New Normal??

*2015 Net Farm Income maybe equal to any ARC payments received.

47

Or is it an “Old Normal”?

‐$20,000

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2015

Net Farm Income

Net Farm Income

Government Payments vs Net Farm Income

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Government Payments Net Farm Income

Debt LoadRising Total Debt but Falling Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio

Current Ratio

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Current Ratio "Green Light" "Red Light"

48

Working Capital As A Percentage of Gross Income

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Working Capital As A Percentage of Gross Income

Behind the Numbers

Working Capital to Gross Revenues

< 0 0% ‐ 10% 10% ‐ 25% > 25%

▪ 12% of farms have negative working capital.

▪ 23% overall are in the “red”

▪ 63% of farms are sitting in a good position.

▪ 20% of farms are sitting with more than 80% of working capital to gross revenues.

Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio

40% 39%37%

33% 32%30% 29%

22%25% 26% 26%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Debt to Asset Ratio

Debt to Asset Ratio

Comparison of % of Farms by Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio

2014

Debt To Asset Ratio

Less than 5% 5% ‐ 30% 31% ‐ 60%

60%‐ 80% Above 80%

2000

Debt To Asset Ratio

Less than 5% 5% ‐ 30% 31% ‐ 60%

60%‐ 80% Above 80%

49

Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Less than 5% 5% ‐ 30% 31% ‐ 60% 60%‐ 80% Above 80%

Average Total Debt Trend

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total Average Debt

Average Total Debt Climb

▪ 2014 = Average Total Debt = $1,009,704

▪ First time to reach over $1 Million

▪ What kind of debt is increasing?

Debt by Term

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Debt by Type

Current Intermediate Long Term Non‐Farm

50

Debt by Term

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

1995 1999 2004 2009 2014

Debt by Type

Current Intermediate Long Term Non‐Farm

Crop Acres vs Debt Increase

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

1995 1999 2004 2009 2014

Current Intermediate Long Term Non‐Farm Crop Acres

Behind the Debt #’s

▪ Range on total debt load

▪ $0 ‐ $10 Million

▪ Interest Paid

▪ $0 ‐ $309,000

▪ Average $36,353

▪ Impact of Rising Interest Rates??

▪ Not as simple as taking $1 million x 2%

▪ Not all that is borrowed for a full 12 months

▪ Most Intermediate & Long Term Rate are fixed (for at least the short term 3‐5 years)

9%

37%

16%

27%

11%

Total Debt

< $50,000 $50,000 ‐ $500,000

$500,000 ‐ $1,000,000 $1 Million ‐ $2 Million

> $2 Million

Comparison of today to the 1980’s

1980’s

▪ Large number of farms and ranches

▪ Largely leveraged by single lender

▪ 30‐35 Years out of the Great Depression

▪ 12,000 Banks and 1,000 Farm Credit

▪ $14 of debt to every $1 of net farm income

Today

▪ 270,000 farms generate 80% of the agricultural revenue

▪ Third party/counter‐party risk

▪ 30‐35 Years out of the 80’s

▪ 7,000 Banks and 82 Farm Credit

▪ $6 of debt to every $1 of net farm income in 2013 & 2014

▪ Just four years ago it would have been $2 of debt to every $1 of NFI

Info taken from Dr. David Kohl’s article “Comparing and Contrasting 1970‐1980 and 2010‐2020: Deja Vu?

• If Net Farm Income = $50,000 in 2015/2016 and debt holds steady, the number will be $20 of debt for every $1 of net farm income.

51

Family LivingThe #1 Non‐Farm Cost to Watch

2014 Non‐Farm Expense Summary

2014

Family Living $96,645

Income Taxes $48,885

Furnishing & Appliances $649

Non‐Farm Vehicle $2,266

Non‐Farm Real Estate $9,152

Other Non‐Farm Capital Purchases $3,321

Non‐Farm Savings & Investments $6,992

Total Cash Family Living, Investment & Non‐Farm Capital Purchases $167,852

2014 Family Living Expense

▪ Family Living Expense Range:

▪ $25,000 ‐ $450,000

▪ Even Distribution

Family Living Expense

Less than $50,000 $50,000‐100,000

$100,000 ‐ 200,0000 Over $200,000

Family Living & Taxes

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Family Living & Taxes Trend

Family Living Taxes

52

Net Farm Income vs Family Living1977‐2014

‐$100,000

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

Net Farm Income Family Living Expense

1995 2014 Difference

Food & Meals $5,010 $9,927 $4,917

Medical Care/Health Ins. $4,580 $11,700 $7,120

Cash Donations $2,010 $5,401 $3,391

Household/Clothing $5,101 $10,283 $5,182

Personal Care/Recreation $5,694 $15,837 $10,143

Child/Dependent Care $131 $1,577 $1,446

Gifts $1,477 $4,138 $2,661

Education $788 $1,892 $1,104

Utilities $1,330 $3,129 $1,799

Non‐FarmVehicle Expense $1,449 $4,382 $2,933

Household RE Taxes $359 $1,489 $1,130

Non‐Farm Interest $405 $2,187 $1,782

Life/Disability/LTC Ins $1,926 $6,306 $4,380

Miscellaneous $1,068 $18,369 $17,301

Total $31,328 $96,617 $65,289

Who has a Family Living Problem?

Family A

▪ Spends $250,000 per year

▪ Family Living & Taxes

▪ Accrual Income Trend = $400,000

▪ $150,000 Left Over

Family B

▪ Spends $75,000 per year

▪ Family Living & Taxes

▪ Accrual Income Trend = $50,000

▪ Short $25,000

How can Non‐Farm costs Put YOU Out of Business?

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Net Farm Income $75,000 $75,000 $75,000 $75,000

Income Taxes $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000

Family Living $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000

Total Expense $121,000 $121,000 $121,000 $121,000

Net Shortage $‐46,000 $‐46,000 $‐46,000 $‐46,000

Extra Borrowing $46,000 $92,000 $138,000 $184,000

53

Average Net Worth Change

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Net Worth Change

Net Worth Change

9 Year Total Increase over $1.8 Million


($300,000)($200,000)

($100,000)$0

$100,000

$200,000$300,000$400,000

$500,000$600,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Net Worth Change

What IF we have consistent Net Worth losses?


($300,000)

($200,000)

($100,000)

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Would be the same Net Worth if we had averaged $95,023 for all 13 years.

Cost of ProductionA look by the acre

54

Net Income Equation

Yield Price Expenses Net Farm Income

How Do You Increase Net Farm Income?

Yield Price Expenses

Grow More Sell It For More

Produce It For LessX

▪Beware of Maximizing Yield at the expense of your bottom line.

▪Example:▪ Spending $30/ ac for fertilizer to increase your yield 5 Bushels▪ Price needs to be at $6.00 to break‐even.

▪ Carrying Cost of the Fertilizer

▪ Risk of not increasing the yield (Crop Damage, etc)

Irrigated Corn –All Tenure Types

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Irrigated Corn Gross Income & Expenses

Gross Income Total Expenses

* Gross Income includes Government payments and expenses include Labor & Management Charges.

55

Average Cost Comparison – Irr. Corn

2009 2013 2014

Seed $68.05 $89.49 $91.14

Fertilizer $143.87 $163.80 $116.20

Chemicals $50.75 $56.16 $47.12

Crop Insurance $23.36 $40.36 $32.58

Operating Power/Machine Costs $74.52 $112.50 $101.02

Land Rent $171.74 $274.74 $258.11

Other Direct Costs $84.14 $106.91 $87.18

Overhead Expenses $71.84 $75.67 $87.27

Total Expenses $688.27 $919.63 $820.62

Included in our Operating Power/Crop Machinery cost is Fuel & Oil, General Repairs & Supplies, Machinery Repairs, Custom Hire and Machinery Leases.

Irr Corn – Machinery Costs Per Acre

$0.00

$20.00

$40.00

$60.00

$80.00

$100.00

$120.00

$140.00

$160.00

$180.00

$200.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Machinery Costs Per Ac

Irrigated Corn – Machinery Costs Per Acre

2009 2014

Fuel & Oil $16.28 $27.51

General Repairs & Supplies $9.60 $12.76

Machinery Repairs $13.53 $22.90

Mach. Depr. & Intermediate Debt Interest

$61.85 $49.20

Custom Hire $8.26 $31.50

Machinery Leases $16.17 $11.28

Total Machinery Costs $125.69 $155.15

Irrigated Corn – Cash Rent per Acre

$127.71

$111.56

$138.39

$155.72

$171.74$180.36 $184.72

$218.67

$274.74

$258.11

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

56

When Should You Stop Farming Ground?

Income Expenses▪ What happens when net income is negative?

▪ Should a negative net return per acre mean you shouldn’t be farming that piece of ground?

▪ Economics of running in the “short run” vs. the “long run”


Income Expenses▪ Three Categories of Expenses:

▪ Direct Expenses –Those that go away with less acres (seed, fertilizer, chemicals, etc)

▪ Overhead Expenses –Those that stay the same regardless of a change of acres (insurance, depreciation, building repairs, utilities, etc)

▪ Non‐Farm – Family Living & Inc. Taxes

▪ Ideally, Gross Income would be larger than ALL three types of expenses

▪ Needs to be to produce in the long term


Income Expenses

Direct Expenses

Overhead Expenses

Gross Income

IF Gross Income > Direct Expenses & Overhead Expenses

▪ Look at:

▪ Cutting non‐farm expenses

▪ Increasing non‐farm income

▪ Or:

▪ Using prior year profits to subsidize (Reduced net worth)


Income Expenses

Gross Income

Direct Expenses

IF Gross Income > Direct Expenses

Your income covers the expenses that would go away without farming it and contributes SOME to overhead expenses.

You are better off continuing to farm that ground in the short run.

▪ The overhead expenses don’t change if you don’t farm that ground so anything you can add to them is beneficial.

57


Income Expenses

Gross Income

Direct Expenses

IF Gross Income < Direct Expenses

Your income DOESN’T even cover the expenses that would go away without farming it.

Economic law says you’re better off to let that piece of ground go.


Income Expenses

Gross Income

Direct Expenses

Other things to think about:

▪ Opportunity to farm that ground again in the future?

▪ How much net worth can you stand to lose?

▪ How long can you withstand losses?

Example of Cash Rent Question

Yield 180

Breakeven

Direct Costs $733.35 $4.07

Overhead Costs $87.27

Total Farm Costs $820.62 $4.56

Family Living & Taxes

$132.27

Total Costs $952.89 $5.29

If you can price your corn above $4.07, you are better off to continue to farm this piece of ground.

If not, you need to look at long term benefits.

Irr. Beans ‐Net Return Per Acre (with Labor & Mgmt)

‐$150.00

‐$100.00

‐$50.00

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cash Rent Share Rent

Cash Rent Average Return: $71.14 Share Rent Average Return: $51.95

58

Irr. Beans ‐Net Return Per Acre(with Labor and Mgmt)

‐$150.00

‐$100.00

‐$50.00

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cash Rent Share Rent

Cash Rent Average Return: $26.77 Share Rent Average Return: $27.98

Irr. Corn Cost of ProductionAverage

Yield 180

Direct Costs $475.24

Cash Rent $258.11


Total Costs $820.62

Cost of Production $4.56 per Bushel

Irr. Corn Cost of Production

Yield 180


Cash Rent $258.11


Total Farm Costs $820.62

Family Living & Taxes $132.27

Total Costs $952.89

Cost of Production $5.29 per Bushel

Family Living: $96,645Income Taxes: $48,855Total: $145,500

Average Acres: 1,100Cost Per Acre: $132.27

Cost Per Bu: $0.73

Irr. Corn Cost of ProductionYield 150 180 220

Direct Costs $475.24 $475.24 $475.24

Cash Rent $258.11 $258.11 $258.11

Overhead Costs $87.27 $87.27 $87.27

Total Farm Costs $820.62 $820.62 $820.62

Family Living & Taxes $132.27 $132.27 $132.27

Total Costs $952.89 $952.89 $952.89

Cost of Production $6.35 per Bu. $5.29 per Bu. $4.33 per Bu.

59

Irr. Corn Cost of ProductionLow 1/3 Average High 1/3

Direct Costs $530.92 $475.24 $424.68

Cash Rent $332.16 $258.11 $195.80

Overhead Costs $75.32 $87.27 $92.79

Total Farm Costs $938.40 $820.62 $713.27


Total Costs $1,070.67 $952.89 $845.54


* Assuming same 180 bushel yield & same Family Living Cost

Irr. Soybean Cost of ProductionLow 1/3 Average High 1/3

Direct Costs $409.12 $372.46 $300.89

Cash Rent $255.34 $233.14 $149.24

Overhead Costs $106.91 $87.55 $61.39

Total Farm Costs $771.37 $693.15 $511.52


Total Costs $903.64 $825.42 $643.79


* Assuming same 60 bushel yield & same Family Living Cost

Comparison of Ave. vs Top 1/3Average Top 1/3 Difference

Fertilizer $60.68 $40.48 $20.20

Chemicals $46.67 $41.08 $5.59

Machinery Costs $143.61 $97.93 $45.68

Cash Rent $233.14 $149.24 $83.90

Beef Cow/Calf Cost of ProductionAverage



Total Farm Costs $853.68

Family Living & Taxes $107.39

Total Costs per Cow $961.07

Cost of Production $166.85 per CWT

* Cost of Production based on 576 lbs calf per cow.

60

Watch Where You’re Going?

Speed = 55 MPH

Time = 2,000 Hours

Distance = 110,000 Miles

Speed = 85 MPH

Time = 2,000 Hours

Distance = 170,000 Miles

Watch Where You’re Going?

2,000 Acres

Loss Per Acre = $150

Net Worth Loss = $300,000

20,000 Acres

Loss Per Acre = $150

Net Worth Loss = $3,000,000

Take Home Points

▪Tighter Margins Ahead▪ Need to manage all costs (Farm and Non‐Farm) as effectively as possible.

▪ Re‐evaluate production decisions to make sure they STILL make sense

▪ Tough decision may be needed▪ Give up high cost cash rented ground?

▪ Cut family living?

Take Home Points▪ Figure YOUR Cost of Production

▪ Averages are just averages

▪ “Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”Aldous Huxley, Complete Essays 2, 1926‐29

▪ Use YOUR Cost of Production to make Changes▪ "Knowledge isn’t power until it is applied."— Dale Carnegie

▪ If you Don’t Know Where your going, you may get there Faster Than You Want.

61

Questions?

Tina BarrettExecutive Director


3815 Touzalin Ave, Ste 105

Lincoln, NE 68507

(402) 464‐6324

[email protected]

www.nfbi.net

62

Department of Agricultural Economics

Risk Management: Protecting and Creating Value

Jay Parsons, Associate Professor

103B Filley Hall, 402-472-1911

[email protected]

2015 Cornhusker Economics Outlook Meetings


University of Nebraska-Lincoln


What is Risk?


Origin of the Word RISK

RISICARE

–Italian word

–“TO DARE”


Risk Tradeoffs• Upside: Greater risk taking

usually leads to greater wealth

• Downside: Losses from risk taking can be devastating

• Managing risks are a matter of evaluating tradeoffs.

• How much risk and how much stress are you willing to endure to potentially achieve higher returns?

4

63


Definition of Risk• RISK is the effect of uncertainty on your

objectives.1

– Risk is objective focused.• What are you trying to accomplish?

– Risk management explicitly addresses uncertainty

• If you ignore the risks you don’t understand, you are probably in trouble or soon going to be.

– Risk has both positive and negative effects.1ANSI/ASSE/ISO 31000 Risk Management Principles and Guidelines


Risk management creates value as well as protects it!

• It is about recognizing opportunity as well as preventing disasters.

• European View (YUK!)– The goal of risk management is to be risk free and if

something does go wrong, someone is to blame.

• The Glass is Half Full

“Risk management is fundamentally about increasing the probability of achieving your objectives.”

Tim Leech

Risk Oversight, Inc.


Risk Management Culture

“Risk management should be viewed as a priority and a competitive advantage.”

Christopher Mandel

Sedgwick, Inc.


Sources of Risk in Agriculture

1. Marketing/Price Risk

2. Production Risk

3. Institutional/Legal Risk

4. Human Risk

5. Financial Risk

Business Risk

64


Strategies for Managing Risk1. Avoid it

2. Reduce ita) Reduce the probability it will happen

b) Reduce the impact if it does happen

3. Transfer it outside the businessa) Insurance

b) Contracting

4. Build your internal capacity to beara) Increase reserves

b) Maintain flexibility

5. Accept it


• Financial risk is the extra risk that results from financial obligations associated with financing.

• Contributing factors include– Anything that would negatively affect cash flow and

the ability to meet debt obligations or other financial responsibility

• Controls– Maintaining a financial cushion

– Practicing leasing and contract strategies

– Maintaining up-to-date financial information

Financial Risk


Market Risk• Fluctuations in prices paid for inputs and received for

outputs by the firm after committing to plan of action.• Contributing factors include

– National and regional production

– Demand (including quality issues)

– Government programs

– Seasonal effects

• Controls– Forward pricing or contracting

– Diversified market timing

– Diversified production

– Selecting low price risk enterprises

– Obtaining market information

– Marketing/value add agreements

– Crop Insurance


Production Risk• Fluctuations in yield (physical quantities of

production)• Contributing factors

– Weather– Timing of operations– Pests– Disease– Genetics– Wildlife

• Controls– Selecting low production risk

enterprises

– Using low-risk production practices

– Diversification

– Maintaining flexibility and extra capacity

– Utilizing land over a wide spread area

– Crop insurance

65


• Anything that changes the rules of the game.

• Contributing factors include– Changes in social attitudes

– Changing regulations about land use and environmental quality

– Changes in government programs

– The possibilities of lawsuits for accidents or misuse of chemicals

Institutional Risk


• Anything that changes the rules of the game.

Institutional Risk

• Controls– Maintaining a liability

insurance program

– Keeping informed of new regulations and interpretations of the law


• Any risk attributed to the humans involved in the operation.

• Contributing factors include– The possibilities of losing a key employee

– Health issues/injury risk

– Morale or the mental state of the work force

– Skill set and training of employees

Human Risk


• Controls– A backup management plan

– A plan to deal with the possible loss of a key employee

– Maintaining a health and life insurance program

– Establishing and maintaining an estate plan

– A good employee benefit package

Human Risk• Any risk attributed to

the humans involved in the operation.

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Characteristics of a Solid Risk Management Culture

Risk management is

• an integral part of your organization.

• done as a regular part of making decisions

• viewed as a priority

• viewed as a competitive advantage

• pro-active (not just re-active).


Risk Management ProcessEstablish the context

Internal Context

External Context

Objective(s) Involved

Risk assessment

Risk identification

Risk analysis

Evaluation

Treatment Implementation

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Con

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Mo

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Take Home Points

• Be aware of the sources of risk you face and potential impacts on your operation.

• Build awareness for what you can do to manage these risks.

• Be prepared with good monitoring and recordkeeping practices.

• Stay informed about available tools, new production practices and other info.


Contact Info: Jay [email protected] Filley Hall, 402-472-1911

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Extension is a Division of the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln cooperating with the Counties and the United States Department of Agriculture.

University of Nebraska–Lincoln Extension educational programs abide with the nondiscrimination policies of the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and the United States Department of Agriculture.

Cornhusker Economic Outlook Conference Program Location: ______________________________

1. Which of the following do you consider your primary occupation?

� Farmer/Rancher � Land Owner/Manager � Ag professional � Student 2. Information on Crops Grown

� I do not grow any crops

Crop Rainfed Irrigated Acres Average Yield Acres Average Yield

Corn (silage, seed, grain)

Soybean (seed, grain, forage)

Wheat (seed, grain)

Alfalfa (forage)

Other (specify):

3. Information on Livestock – Number of Animals

� I do not have any animals

Species Reproductive Herd Grower/Feeder/Finisher

Beef Cattle

Dairy Cattle

Swine

Sheep

Goats

4. I have gained knowledge in the following areas as a result of this UNL Extension Program (please check

all that apply):

Crop Marketing Crop Production Costs Crop Production Decisions

Livestock Marketing Livestock Production Costs Livestock Production Decisions

Farm Bill/Farm Programs Other Government Policies Risk Management Decisions

5. I have, or will, make changes in my operation in the following areas as a result of this UNL Extension

program (please check all that apply):

Crop Marketing Crop Production Costs Crop Production Decisions



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Extension is a Division of the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln cooperating with the Counties and the United States Department of Agriculture.

University of Nebraska–Lincoln Extension educational programs abide with the nondiscrimination policies of the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and the United States Department of Agriculture.

6. This UNL Extension program will improve the profitability or cost efficiency of my business operations

in the following areas (please check all that apply): Crop Marketing Crop Production Costs Crop Production Decisions



7. I use the following management practices in my operations (please check all that apply):

Farm/Govt. Programs

Environmental Management Plan

Environmental Record Keeping

Production Record Keeping

Computer-based Decision Aids

Precision Agriculture

Cash Commodity Sales

Futures Commodity Marketing

Options Commodity Marketing

Crop Insurance

New-generation Grain Contracts

Written Commodity Marketing Plan

Prepared Financial Statements

Prepared Financial Ratios

Financial Trend Analysis

Written Estate Plan

Written Business Transfer Plan

Written Business Plan

Written Employee Manual Written Farm Leases Oral Farm Leases

Please estimate the economic effect of this UNL Extension program: � Per Livestock Head $_______________ � Per Production Acre $________________

This benefit is due to (please check all that apply):

Improved Asset Efficiency

Reduced Production Cost

Improvement in Income

WHAT IS THE MOST CRUCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT EDUCATION NEED FOR YOUR OPERATION FOR THE COMING

YEAR? WHAT IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TO THE SUCCESS OF YOUR OPERATION OVER THE NEXT 5-10 YEARS? OTHER COMMENTS:

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Documents

Cornhusker Economics Outlook 2015 Booklet.pdf · 2015/16 P% Millions of Acres ... • For prices to improve exports need to pick up and/or production needs to decline in US and/or