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Correlation of temperature with solar activity (SSN)
Alexey Poyda and Mikhail ZhizhinGeophysical Center & Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Climate History Data
• NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis climate history database with global weather 2.5 deg lat/lon grids from 1948 till now at 6 h time step
• Singular Value Decomposition for trend detection at each grid point with 3-4 years time window. Using SVD we can derive the most significant modes in the weather variation, both periodic and long-term quasy-linear
5 most significant eigenvectors in temperature time series in 2 years window
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
The SVD eigenvectors with the largest eigenvalues correspond to:1.seasonal (1 year period, 2.interseasonal (1/2 year period) and 3.decadal variations (linear trend)
SVD-derived linear trend in temperature is equivalent to the same
width running time window average
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5 Blue is SVD-derived trend, red is 3-years time window average
Surface temperature in Moscow for the last 25 years
X-axis in bi-weeks (2 observations per month)
Y-axis in Celsius degress
0 100 200 300 400 500 6002.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
50
100
150
200
250
300
Linear trend in surface temperature in Moscow vs. Solar Spot Number
Temperature trend was derived by SVD decomposition with 3-years time window
SSN is from http://spidr.ndgc.noaa.gov
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1600 100 200 300 400 500 600
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Same as above but with 3-years time window smoothing for SSN
0 100 200 300 400 500 6001.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
St.-Petersburg
0 100 200 300 400 500 6003.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Minsk
Correlation between surface temperature and smoothed SSN for the last 25 years,
Eurasia
15 E
30
E
45 E
60 E
75 E 90
E 105 E 120
E 135 E 150
E 1
65 E
180
E
16
5 W
4
5 N
60 N
75 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Correlation between surface temperature and smoothed SSN for the last 50 years,
Eurasia
15 E
30
E
45 E
60 E
75 E 90
E 105 E 120
E 135 E 150
E 1
65 E
180
E
16
5 W
45 N
60 N
75 N
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Correlation between surface temperature and SSN for 25 years
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
90 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 1000 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 925 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 850 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 700 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 600 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 500 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 400 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 300 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 250 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 200 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 150 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Temperature at 100 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Temperature at 70 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Temperature at 50 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Temperature at 30 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Temperature at 20 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Temperature at 10 mbar pressure level and SSN
180 W 135
W 90
W 45
W 0
45
E 90
E 135
E 180
E
90 S
45 S
0
45 N
90 N
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Conclusion• We observe strong regional correlation between linear
trends in temperature and SSN both smoothed within 3-4 years time window for the last 25 years
• The time window length eliminates contributions from seasonal variations, volcanoes and El-Nino oscillations
• The spatial correlation pattern is persistent for different pressure levels (heights)
• Linear correlation for the larger time window (50 years NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis database) is not so pronounced in value, but has the same spatial pattern. Possibly we have to remove longer time scale trends (global warming :) from the temperature time series
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