MIT Lincoln LaboratoryFPAW-2008 - 1Robinson10/09/2008

Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)

1 Situational awareness2 Interfacility coordination3 Reduced workload4 Proactive Reroutes5 Routes open longer6 Improved Arr/Dep Transition

Area (ATA/DTA) management7 Reduced MIT restrictions8 Improved Ground Stop Program

management

9 Directing pathfinders10 Close route proactively11 FAA facility staffing assistance12 Directing traffic through weather gaps13 More SWAP departures14 Improved safety15 Improved Ground Delay

Programs (GDP) management

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

ZMP ZOB ZDC ZAU ZNY ZBW

CIW

S U

sage

per

Sto

rm D

ay

TMU

Areas

CIWS in TMU& Areas

TMU

CIWS inTMU only

Observed RAPT Benefits

It’s Not Just What’s in the Tool,But Who Gets to Use It

0 – 2 Hour Echo TopsForecast

0 – 2 Hour Winter PrecipitationForecast

Storm Growth & DecayTrends

Storm Motion &Extrapolated Position

Echo Tops Tags

Real-Time ForecastAccuracy Scores

MIT Lincoln LaboratoryFPAW-2008 - 2Robinson10/09/2008

Framework for Integrated Weather-ATM Decision Making

4-D Weather ForecastTactical: 0-2 hrs

Strategic: 2-8 hrs

Forecasts of Precipitation, Echo Topsplus Turbulence, Shear, Growth, etc.

Includes Forecast Uncertainty

Air Traffic Management Decision Making and ExecutionDevelop and decide on air traffic management planExecute planReal-time evaluation and decision review

UserDemand

Capacity Impact Forecasts(Terminal and Enroute)

Weather Avoidance Fields

Route Impacts

Flow Impacts / Sector Capacity Loss

Pilot ModelPilot deviation likelihood as

a function of weather

Precipitation

Echo Tops

TRANSLATION

Wx – ATM IntegrationEffective Response

Strategies

RouteAvailabilityPlanningTool

MIT Lincoln LaboratoryFPAW-2008 - 3Robinson10/09/2008

NY Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)

Deviation sensitivity

CIWS forecasts

Weather Avoidance Field (WAF)

Blockage calculation

* NASA-funded foundational research at MIT-LL

Blocking WAF contour

Passable widthRoute box

%VIL > VIP Level 3

(flig

ht a

ltitu

de–e

chot

op)

Convective weather avoidance model*

Probability of Deviation

• Estimated 2007 RAPT Delay Savings: 2,300 hours, $7.5 M- Early 2008 field study results show increased benefits

• Lessons learned from real-time field use assessment:

1. Don’t expect to get it right the first time – best todesign WX-ATM DST with this in mind

2. Close collaboration with operational user communityis critical (in case of RAPT – includes FAA and airlines)

3. Aggressive training program crucial to DST acceptanceand success

Weather Input Weather Translation Airspace and WX-Blockage Models

MIT Lincoln LaboratoryFPAW-2008 - 4Robinson10/09/2008

Building a Scalable Network of WX-ATM Response Strategies

“Building block” approach to expandresponse strategy capabilities ina specific ATM decision-makingarena (e.g., departure management)

15m

in A

ircra

ft Th

roug

hput

A08

Issued

End

Traffic over-delivery

Fair WeatherActualTNFRA ModelMAX*TNFRA

Route A

vailability

Extending framework for integratedWX-ATM decision-making from tacticalto strategic wx-impact mitigationPlanning (e.g., AFP management)

CoSPA 0 – 8 HourForecast

AFP Capacity ImpactModel

AFP Throughput AssessmentAnd Response Strategy