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SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
With the contribution of all my COSMO colleagues
COSMO Status Report 2006 – 2007Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Content
1. COSMO organization
2. Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
3. COSMO scientific activitiesMichael Baldauf, DWD"COSMO numerics and physics-dynamics coupling"
DWD"Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO modelby nudging"
Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM"Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“
Philippe Steiner, MeteoSwissThe COSMO project: ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitationforecasts'
Chiara Marsigli, ARPA-SIM"EPS activities in COSMO"
Adriano Raspanti, USAM/CNMCA"Verification Strategies in COSMO"
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Changes in the COSMO management
Steering Committee Members: Mathias Rotach (the Chairman
MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) Hans-Joachim Koppert
DWD (Germany) Massimo Ferri
USAM (Italy) Ioannis Papageorgiou
HNMS (Greece) Ryszard Klejnowski
IMGW (Poland)
Scientific Project Manager: Tiziana Paccagnella
ARPA-SIM (Italy)
Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Jürgen Steppeler DWD Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD
Steering Committee Members: Mathias Rotach (the Chairman
MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) Hans-Joachim Koppert
DWD (Germany) Massimo Ferri
USAM (Italy) Ioannis Papageorgiou
HNMS (Greece) Michal Ziemianski
IMGW (Poland)
Scientific Project Manager: Tiziana Paccagnella
ARPA-SIM (Italy)
Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Future Changes in the COSMO management
Steering Committee Members: Mathias Rotach (the Chairman
MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) Hans-Joachim Koppert
DWD (Germany) Massimo Ferri
USAM (Italy) Ioannis Papageorgiou
HNMS (Greece) Michal Ziemianski
IMGW (Poland)
Scientific Project Manager: Tiziana Paccagnella ARPA-SIM (Italy)
Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD Physical aspects / Marco Arpagaus MeteoSwiss Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD
Steering Committee Members: Mathias Rotach
MeteoSwiss (Switzerland) Hans-Joachim Koppert the Chairman
DWD (Germany) Massimo Ferri
USAM (Italy) Ioannis Papageorgiou
HNMS (Greece) Michal Ziemianski
IMGW (Poland) Victor Pescaru
NMA (Romania)
Scientific Project Manager: Marco Arpagaus Meteoswiss )Switzerland
Working Groups/Work Packages Coordinators: Data assimilation / Christoph Schraff DWD Numerical aspects / Michael Baldauf DWD Physical aspects / tbd Interpret. and Applic./ Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss Verification and case studies /Adriano Raspanti USAM Ref. Version and Implem. /Ulrich Schättler DWD
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
New model name
The former Lokal Modell and its many associated names (LM, aLMo, LAMI etc..)
now is/are
COSMO-xy, where‘xy’ is an (up to) two-letter identification of the
application of the deterministic model is concerned (COSMO-K, COSMO-E, COSMO-
A2…)
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
COSMO partners
Members of COSMO are the following national meteorological services:
DWD Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, GermanyHNMS Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Athens, GreeceIMGW Institute for Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw,
PolandMeteoSwiss Meteo-Schweiz, Zurich, SwitzerlandUSAM Ufficio Spazio Aereo e Meteorologia, Roma, Italy
These regional and military services within the member states are also participating:
ARPA-SIM Servizio IdroMeteorologico di ARPA Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, ItalyARPA-Piemonte Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione Ambientale-Piemonte, ItalyAWGeophys Amt für Wehrgeophysik, Traben-Trarbach, GermanyCIRA Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali Italy NMA, the Romanian Meteorological Service, will be full member before the end of 2007
Roshydromet, the Russian Hydromet Service has applied to join COSMO and is now applcant member
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Model system overview (1)
DynamicsBasic equations: Non-hydrostatic, fully compressible primitive equations; no scale
approximations; advection form; subtraction of a stratified dry base state at rest.Prognostic variables: Horizontal and vertical Cartesian wind components, temperature
(or temperature perturbations), pressure perturbation, specific humidity, cloud water content. Options for additional prognostic variables: cloud ice, turbulent kinetic energy, rain, snow and graupel content.
Diagnostic variables: Total air density, precipitation fluxes of rain, snow and graupel.Coordinates: Rotated geographical coordinates (λ,φ) and a generalized terrain-following
coordinate ς. Vertical coordinate system options: Hybrid reference pressure based σ-type coordinate (default) Hybrid version of the Gal-Chen coordinate Hybrid version of the SLEVE coordinate (Schaer et al. 2002) Z coordinate system almost available for testing (see the report by Juergen Steppeler)
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Model system overview (2)
NumericsGrid structure: Arakawa C grid in the horizontal; Lorenz vertical staggeringTime integration: Second order horizontal and vertical differencing Leapfrog (horizontally explicit, vertically
implicit) time-split integration including extension proposed by Skamarock and Klemp 1992. Additional options for:
a two time-level Runge-Kutta split-explicit scheme (Wicker and Skamarock, 1998) a three time level 3-D semi-implicit scheme (Thomas et al., 2000) a two time level 3rd-order Runge-Kutta scheme (regular or TVD) with various options for high-order
spatial discretization (Förstner and Doms, 2004, Wicker and Skamarock, 2002)Numerical smoothing: 4th order linear horizontal diffusion with option for a monotonic version including an
orographic limiter (Doms, 2001); Rayleigh-damping in upper layers; quasi-3D divergence damping and off-centering in split steps.
Lateral Boundaries: 1-way nesting using the lateral boundary formulation according to Davies and Turner (1977). Options for:
boundary data defined on lateral frames only; periodic boundary conditionsDriving Models: The GME from DWD, the IFS from ECMWF and LM itself.Thanks to the cooperation with INM, in the framework of the INM-SREPS and COSMO SREPS projects, ICs
and BCs can now be extracted also from the NCEP and UK Met Office global models (see the report from Chiara Marsigli about the COSMO SREPS Project).
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Model system overview (3)
PhysicsGrid-scale Clouds and Precipitation: Cloud water condensation /evaporation by saturation adjustment. Cloud
Ice scheme HYDCI (Doms,2002). Further options: prognostic treatment of rain and snow (Gassman,2002; Baldauf and Schulz, 2004, for the leapfrog
integration scheme) a scheme including graupel content as prognostic variable the previous HYDOR scheme: precipitation formation by a bulk parameterization including water
vapour, cloud water, rain and snow (rain and snow treated diagnostically by assuming column equilibrium)
a warm rain scheme following Kessler Subgrid-scale Clouds: Subgrib-scale cloudiness based on relative humidity and height. A corresponding
cloud water content is also interpreted.Moist Convection: Mass-flux convection scheme (Tiedtke) with closure based on moisture convergence.
Further options: a modified closure based on CAPE within the Tiedtke scheme the Kain-Fritsch convection schemeVertical Diffusion: Diagnostic K-closure at hierarchy level 2 by default. Optional: a new level 2.5 scheme with prognostic treatment of turbulent kinetic energy; effects of subgrid-scale
condensation and evaporation are included and the impact from subgrid-scale thermal circulations is taken into account.
Surface Layer: Constant flux layer parameterization based on the Louis (1979) scheme (default). Further options:
A new surface scheme including a laminar-turbulent roughness sub-layer
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Model system overview (4)
Soil Processes:Two-layer soil model including snow and interception storage; climate values
are prescribed as lower boundary conditions; Penman-Monteith plant transpitration. Further options:
a new multi-layer soil model including melting and freezing (Schrodin and Heise, 2002)
Radiation: δ-two stream radiation scheme after Ritter and Geleyn (1992) for short and longwave fluxes; full cloud-radiation feedback
Initial Conditions: Interpolated from the driving model. Nudging analysis scheme (see below). Diabatic or adiabatic digital filtering initialization (DFI) scheme (Lynch et al.,
1997).Physiographical data Sets:Mean orography derived from the GTOPO30 data set(30"x30") from USGS.Prevailing soil type from the DSM data set (5'x5')of FAO.Land fraction, vegetation cover, root depth and leaf area index from the
CORINE data set.Roughness length derived from the GTOPO30 and CORINE data sets.
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Model system overview (4)
Data Assimilation for LMMethod: Nudging towards observationsImplementation: Continuous cycleAnalyzed variables: horizontal wind vector, potential temperature, relative
humidity, 'near-surface' pressure (i.e. at the lowest model level)Observations:SYNOP, SHIP,DRIBU: station pressure, wind (stations below 100m above
msl) and humidityTEMP,PILOT: wind,temperature: all standard levels up to 300 hPa;
humidity:all levels up to 300 hPa; geopotential used for one “near-surface” pressure increment.
AIRCRAFT: all wind and temperature dataWIND PROFILER: all wind data (not included in blacklisted stations)Quality Control: Comparison with the model fields from the assimilation
run itself.A Latent Heat Nudging scheme is also implementedA nudging of temperature and humidity profile retrieved by satellite
radiances by using a 1-DVAR technique is also implemented for testing
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
COSMO model versions during the year
COSMO-Model 3.21: (14.12.06) Preparations of Ensemble Mode Implementation of last changes for Runge-Kutta
dynamical core Other minor changes………………
COSMO-Model 3.22: (24.01.07) New Version of cloud microphysics (hydci_pp) Other minor changes
COSMO-Model 3.23: (30.03.07) New treatment of lateral boundaries for moisture variables Introduced option to calculate volume- and surface integrals
over arbitrary cuboid Other minor changes
COSMO-Model 3.24: (26.04.07) New version of cloud microphysics; here: Graupel
scheme Other minor changes………………
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
COSMO model versions during the year
Now we have: COSMO-Model Version 4.0
Fully implemented all developments for high resolution (LMK-Project, work at other centers)
Fully implemented all changes for running the model in climate mode (long simulations, updating external parameters, NetCDF,…)
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Interpolation INT2LM
INT2LM 1.5 (05.07.07; Development Version) Implementation of the changes for high-resolution runs
(LMK-Project) Started implementation of changes from the climate
community (NetCDF, special interpolation procedures) Implemented possibility for interpolating additional variables
(e.g. chemistry variables)
INT2LM 1.6 (07.09.07; Development Version) (First) full implementation of all changes from the climate
community
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Other related developments …
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Other related developments …
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Other related developments …
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Other related developments …
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
COSMO operational applications
Germany COSMO-EU 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING
COSMO-DE 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-EU
NUDGING
Switzerland COSMO -7 7 km BCs from IFS NUDGING
COSMO-2 2.2 km BCs fromCOSMO-7
NUDGING
Italy USAM COSMO-ME 7 km BCs from IFS 3D-PSAS
COSMO-IT 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-ME
NUDGING
Italy ARPA-SIM
COSMO -I7 7 km BCs from IFS NUDGING
COSMO-I2 2.8 km BCs fromCOSMO-I7
NUDGING
COSMO -bk 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING
Greece COSMO -GR 7 km BCs from GME NUDGING
Poland COSMO xx 14km - BCs from GME NUDGING
Romania COSMO xx 14km - BCs from GME NUDGING
More Info ….National PostersMore Info ….National Posters
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
COSMO-LEPSat ECMWF
More details in the presentations by C.Marsigli…
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
COSMO Status Report 2003 – 2004Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SMR
1. Structure and organization of COSMO
2. Lokal-Modell (LM) Overview
3. Operational Applications of the LM
4. COSMO scientific activities
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
The present scientific organizationof COSMO
WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4 WG5 WG6
Scientific Working Groups
CO
SM
O P
rio
rity
Pro
ject
s
TACKLE DEFICIENCES IN QPF
RK
LM_Z
1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA
SIR
SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6
UTCS
INTERPRETATION
SREPS
COMMON VERIFICATION – CONDITIONAL VERIFICATION
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Special Project Support Activities
PL: U. Schaettler DWD
1. Source Code Administration
2. Web Page Administration Contents Manager Web Master
3. Documentations, Newsletter, Technical Report Documentation COSMO Newsletter Technical Reports
includes many of the activities of WG6 Implementation and Reference Version
Still criticities related to the web page administration due to limited human
resources.
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD
This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision
emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA)
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD
This project was formulated 2 years ago based on the COSMO Long-term vision
emphasis on ensemble techniques (FC + DA)
As regarded DA for convective scale it was decided that:
In the future Ensemble DA should play a major roleNudging at moment: robust and efficient, requires retrievals for use of indirect obs, no severe drawbacks (for short term) if we can make them available
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Special Project Sequential Importance Resampling PL: C. Schraff DWD
The SIR project take off has been delayed due to missing experienced resources.
•SAC/STC decision: long-term strategy of COSMO for DA to be re-discussed (2 meetings with external experts, 5 Sept (P.J. van Leeuwen), 18 Sept (Chris Snyder))
•SIR project is being revised / replaced
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
New PP: Km-scale Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (KENDA)
Aim: Development a novel ensemble-based data assimilation system for the convective scale (or km-scale, i.e. 1 – 3 km model resolution)
Set up a modular system / framework for ensemble DA. Modular means that others (universities ..) can use it.components of the system can be replaced by alternatives
The system will be based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF, Hunt et al., 2007)
Sequential Importance Resampling (SIR) filter (van Leeuwen, 2003) requires more basic research. This option should rely mainly on resources from co-operating universities and research institutions
KENDA IS NOW UNDER DEFINITION
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Some other issues related to Data Assimilation
Latent Heat Nudging DWD: COSMO-DE with LHN operational since April 2007
assessed benefit from revisions done in 2005 / 2006 to cope with prognostic precip
MetCH: – LHN real-time test suite for June – Aug 07 with COSMO-2 using Swiss radar data
verification in comparison to pre-opr. COSMO-2 without LHN positive impact of LHN on surface parameters throughout forecast,
particularly for 2-m temperature and cloudiness very clear positive impact on precipitation in some cases
GPS tomography: comprehensive monitoring (14 months) of quasi-operational
tomography profiles (at CSCS) against Payerne radiosonde and COSMO fields done
results: tomographic refractivity profiles have rather large errors unless COSMO forecasts are included as background info
start working on assimilating humidity profiles derived from tomography retrievals
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
ASS free forecast ASS free forecast
LHNnoLHN
scores with latest version of microphysics & LHN 15 – 30 August , 00 and 12 UTC runs (32 forecasts)
threshold : 0.1 mm / h
LHNnoLHN
ETS FBI
LHNnoLHN
threshold : 1.0 mm / h
ETSLHNnoLHN
ETS
threshold : 5.0 mm / h
threshold : 0.1 mm / h thr. : 0.1 mm / h
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project 1dVar for satellite radiances
PL: R. Hess DWD
Specific talks by
DWD"Assimilating radiances from polar-orbiting satellites in the COSMO modelby nudging"
Francesca di Giuseppe, ARPA-SIM"Assimilation of the SEVIRI data including the use of the Ensemble B matrices and other developments based on the 1DVar approach“
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Talk by Michael Baldauf
Special Project: LM_Z PL: Ulrich Schaettler
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project Further development of the Runge Kutta
method PL: M.Baldauf DWD
Talk by Michael Baldauf
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection
Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD
Implementation of Transport Equations for the Sub-Grid Scalar Variance, Coupling with Convection, Turbulence and Cloud Diagnostic Schemes Motivation There are many deficiencies of LM that are related to inadequate representation of boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection. Among them are
prediction of stratiform clouds, triggering and diurnal cycle of deep convection, prediction of partial cloud cover and cloudiness-radiation interaction,
to mention a few. These deficiencies manifest themselves in large forecast errors, first of all, of precipitation rate and timing and of 2m temperature. The proposed project is aimed at addressing the above issues in a unified turbulence-shallow convection framework. Goals
To account for turbulence and shallow non-precipitating convection in a unified framework (hopefully, for LMK and similar models with mesh-size of 2-3 km this is a ‘final’ solution, although convection-turbulence modelling with such a grid size is still terra incognita).
To achieve a better coupling between boundary layer turbulence, convection and radiation (for LM and similar models with the mesh-size 7-10 km; may require adaptation of the convection scheme).
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection
Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD
Delay due to lackness of available, trained resources.
This project has been considered important for the application of the COSMO model at the “quasi” convective scale
The projects is being reformulated including training of scientists with the required scientific background
The COSMO members, through the STC, will provide the necessary human resources
Priority Project Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme (UTCS) PL: D.Mironov DWD
v. Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of moist PBL with non-precipitating clouds (UTCS), comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) model [July 2008 – July 2009]
vi. Implementation of UTCS into the COSMO model [February 2009 – September2009]
vii. Investigation of the interaction of UTCS with the radiation, grid-scale microphysics and deep convection schemes, slowing down deep convection scheme as needed [January – June 2010]
viii. Testing UTCS within COSMO-model through numerical experiments, fine tuning UTCS parameters, evaluation of results [September 2009 – December 2010]
2008-2010Tasks
i. (i) Development, coding and testing against LES and observational data of a two-equation model of a temperature-stratified PBL; comparison of two-equations (TKE + TPE) and one-equation (TKE only) models
ii. (ii) Testing the existing sub-grid scale statistical cloud scheme in case that scheme is used by both the turbulence scheme and the radiation scheme of the COSMO model
iii. (iii) Comparison of the cloud condensate predicted by the sub-grid scale cloud schemes (statistical and relative-humidity) and by the grid-scale saturation adjustment procedure
iv. (iv) Testing modifications in the COSMO-model deep convection scheme (Tiedtke)
2007-2008
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project
Tackle deficiencies in precipitation forecasts PL: M. ArpagausDWD
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
COSMO Priority Project ’Tackle deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecasts’
COSMO General Meeting, 19 September 2007, Athens
S. Dierer1, M. Arpagaus1, U. Damrath2, A. Seifert2, J. Achimowicz8, E. Avgoustoglou7, M. Baldauf2, R. Dumitrache9, V. Fragkouli7, F. Grazzini3, P. Louka7, P. Mercogliano6, P. Mezzasalma3, M. Milelli4, D. Mironov2, A. Morgillo3, E. Oberto4, A. Parodi5, I.V. Pescaru9, U. Pflüger2, A. Sanna4, F. Schubiger1, K. Starosta8, M. S. Tesini3
1MeteoSwiss (CH), 2DWD (D), 3ARPA-ER (IT), 4ARPA-P (IT), 5Uni Genova
(IT), 6CIRA-CMCC (IT), 7HNMS (GR), 8IMGW (PO), 9NMA (RO)
39 PP QPF
Aim of PP QPF
The aim of PP QPF is improved knowledge about • most suitable namelist settings or • parts of the model that need to be reformulated
to obtain a better QPF at 7 km horizontal grid size
Good quantitative precipitation forecast is a challenging task – also for the COSMO model:
The project has a focus on model deficiencies – not on errors from e.g. initial and large scale conditions
40 PP QPF
Overview of PP QPF
• Task 1: Selection of test cases representative for „typical“ QPF deficiencies of COSMO model
• Task 2: Definition of sensitivity studies
• Task 3: Run sensitivity studies and draw conclusions
41 PP QPF
List of test cases from all countries
DATE INSITUTION Overestimation (+)/underestimation (-)
Stratiform (strat)/convective(con)
06.12.2004 DWD + strat warm sector
18.03.2005 DWD + strat cold front+orography
03.05.2005 DWD + Strat+conv warm front
21.06.2005 DWD - conv cold front
02.02.2005 MeteoSwiss + strat occluded front+orogr.
22.03.2005 MeteoSwiss + strat warm front
12.07.2005 MeteoSwiss + conv -
17.12.2005 MeteoSwiss + strat orography
24.09.2004 ARPA-P - conv cold front+orography
10.04.2005 ARPA-ER + strat occluded front+orogr.
17.08.2006 CIRA-CMCC - conv cold front+orography
09.09.2005 CIRA-CMCC - conv -
01.12.2005 NMA - strat cold front
03.12.2005 NMA - strat cold front+orography
17.12.2005 NMA - Strat+conv cold front
15.09.2005 HNMS - conv -
23.11.2005 HNMS - Strat+conv warm front
26.11.2005 HNMS - strat orography
03.05.2005 IMGW - strat cold front
04.05.2005 IMGW 0 strat cold front
09.06.2005 IMGW + strat -
09.08.2005 IMGW + strat -
23.06.2005 NMA + strat+conv cold front
02.07.2005 NMA + strat cold front
12.07.2005 NMA - strat cold front
42 PP QPF
Forecast errors
• 10 cases of stratiform overestimation (8 from D, CH and PO)• 4 cases of stratiform underestimation• 3 cases of convective overestimation• 7 cases of convective underestimation (6 from I and GR)
43 PP QPF
Sensitivity studies
• 1. Changes of initial conditions• 2. Changes of numerical methods• 3.1 Changes of microphysics• 3.2 Changes of convection schemes• 3.3 Changes of PBL schemes
44 PP QPF | Status ReportMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Conclusions (still preliminary …)
• COSMO Version 4.0 is a good step forward!
• Further improvements expected from Runge-Kutta.
• We should have a closer look at the (initial) humidity fields. – Any improvements in data assimilation expected?
• Convection schemes are the next thing to look at.
• BUT: Even combining all positive (i.e. precipitation reducing …) effects does only cure about half of the cases of (stratiform) overprediction (main aim of project at project start …).
• publication of results planned until end of the year
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project
Development of short range ensemble (SREPS) PL: C.Marsigli ARPA-SIM
Talk by Chiara Marsigli
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project
Advanced interpretation of LM outputs PL: Pierre Eckert MeteoSwiss
Some results in the talk by Adriano Raspanti
The foreseen increase in resolution of the models will lead to a proliferation of grid points and probably also to an increase of the noise in the forecasts. The manifestations of the double penalty effect will increase for events not predicted exactly at the right place at the right time. Valuable information can however be found by composing a statistics on the neighbourhood of a verification point. Various ways to extract the best possible information out of high density precipitation fields have been proposed so far. I can be of deterministic nature (means, quantiles,…) or totally probabilistic. Different “fuzzy” verification methods will be explored and compared in this project.
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Priority Project
Conditional Verification PL: Adriano Raspanti USAM
Talk by Adriano Raspanti
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
CO
SM
O P
rio
rity
Pro
ject
s
QPF
RK
LM_Z
1DVAR FOR SATELLITE DATA
SIR
SUPPORT ACTIVITIES – WG6
INTERPRETATION/ Verif. VHR
SREPS
VerSUS
2007 2008
GM GM
KENDA
UTCS
?
Due to projects which are going to finish, next year we should be able to concentrate resources on a really small numbers of Prio Progets
SRNWP/EWGLAM meeting 2006 October 2005 Ljubljana Slovenia
COSMO report
Further Info (soon) at:www.cosmo-model.org