Cost-effective measures to achieve further improvements of air quality in Europe

(focus on key measures in the EECCA and Balkan countries)

Based on presentation by M. Amann and F. Wagner at the 40th Meeting of the Task Force for Integrated Assessment Modelling Oslo, May 18-20, 2011

Presented by Janusz Cofala and Stefan Astrom

Issue

• The issue:

– Identify a limited set of key measures that lead to cost-effective further improvements of air quality in Europe (to offer guidance to the negotiations on technical annexes)

– Trade cost-effectiveness against simplicity

• Starting point:

– The scenarios of cost-effective emission reductions presented in the CIAM 1/2011 report (at TFIAM 39 and WGSR 48)

Baseline projections of emissions in 2020 and the scope for reductions relative to 2000

Ambition levels for further improvements of air quality in Europe (gap closure concept)

Percentage gap closure for the impact indicators for the scenarios discussed

Scope for gap closure – the difference between the effect in the Baseline 2020 and the MTFR 2020 scenarios

Approach

• We applied a hybrid approach to identify a (subjective) set of key measures:

1. Identify the set of cost-effective measures of the mid scenario

2. Rank measures by their emission reduction potential in the EMEP region

3. Choose a sub-set of measures that achieves a large fraction of emission reductions, e.g., measures that achieve overall reductions of the Low* scenario

– Remaining reductions that are not achieved by these measures could be subject to national emission ceilings

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%Baseline Low* MID High* MTFR

Emis

sion

redu

ction

s rel

ative

to b

asel

ine

SO2

NOx

PM2.5

NH3

VOC

Priorities for cost-effective emission reductions in the CIAM1/2011 report

Cost-effective PM2.5 reductions in the mid scenario

0%

10%

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100%

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Cum

ulati

ve sh

are

of re

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mid

sce

nario

kt P

M2.

5

non-EU EU-27 Cumulative share

Low*

Cost-effective NH3 reductions in the mid scenario

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sce

nario

kt N

H3

non-EU EU-27 Cumulative share

Low*

Cost-effective SO2 reductions in the mid scenario

0%

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ulati

ve sh

are

of re

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sce

nario

kt S

O2

non-EU EU-27 Cumulative share

Low*

Cost-effective NOx reductions in the mid scenario

0%

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kt N

Ox

non-EU EU Cumulative share

Low*

0%

10%

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nario

kt V

OC

non-EU EU-27 Cumulative share

Cost-effective VOC reductions in the mid scenario

Low*

The smallest set of measures to achieve the emission reductions of the Low* scenario in the EMEP region

SO2 Desulfurization of new hard coal power plants

NOx Retrofitting low-NOx burners at existing gas power plants

Low-NOx burners for gas in industry

Low-NOx burners for refineries

Cement and lime production

PM2.5 Ban of open burning of agricultural waste Steel production, basic oxygen

NH3 Urea substitutionPigs - liquid and solid slurry systemsDairy cows – liquid and solid slurry systemsOther cattle - liquid slurry systemsLaying hens and other poultry

VOC Industrial solvents useOther industrial VOC sourcesIndustrial use of adhesives

All these measures are in addition to the current legislation in each country

Effectiveness of the selected measures(emissions, costs and effects relative to Low* scenario)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

SO2 NOx PM NH3 VOC Costs YOLLs Eutroph.Acc. Excess

Rela

tive

to th

e LO

W*

scen

ario

Top-15only where cost-effective

Top-15applied to all countries

Mid case

Low* scenario

Key measures for non-EU countries – SO2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600PP

_NEW

-HC1

PP_N

EW-H

F

PP_N

EW-B

C1

PR_R

EF-N

OF

PR_S

INT-

NO

F

PR_P

ULP

-NO

F

IN_O

C-H

C1

WAS

TE_A

GR-

NO

F

PP_N

EW-O

S2

PR_S

UAC

-NO

F

PP_E

X_O

TH-H

F

DO

M-H

C1

PP_E

X_O

TH-H

C1

CON

_CO

MB-

HC1

WAS

TE_R

ES-N

OF

IN_B

O-H

C1

kt re

ducti

on

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cum

ulati

ve s

hare

of r

educ

tion

in M

ID s

cena

rio

Absolute bymeasureCumulative

Key measures for non-EU countries – NOx

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

PP_E

X_O

TH-G

ASPR

_CEM

-NO

FPR

_SIN

T-N

OF

PR_L

IME-

NO

FIN

_OC-

HC1

IN_O

C-G

ASPR

_GLA

SS-N

OF

PP_E

X_O

TH-H

C1PP

_EX_

OTH

-HF

IN_B

O-H

FIN

_OC-

HF

PR_R

EF-N

OF

CON

_CO

MB-

GAS

PR_N

IAC-

NO

FW

ASTE

_AG

R-N

OF

CON

_CO

MB-

HF

IN_O

C-M

DIN

_BO

-HC1

PP_N

EW-B

C1PP

_NEW

-HC1

PP_E

X_O

TH-B

C1CO

N_C

OM

B-M

DDO

M-H

FIN

_BO

-OS1

CON

_CO

MB-

HC1

IN_B

O-L

PGIN

_BO

-GAS

IN_O

C-LP

GIN

_BO

-MD

IN_B

O-O

S2IN

_OC-

BC1

IN_O

C-O

S2CO

N_C

OM

B-LP

GW

ASTE

_RES

-NO

FIN

_BO

-GSL

PP_E

X_O

TH-O

S2PP

_EX_

OTH

-MD

IN_B

O-B

C1IN

_OC-

GSL

PP_E

X_O

TH-O

S1PP

_NEW

-HF

IN_O

C-O

S1CO

N_C

OM

B-BC

1PP

_EX_

OTH

-GSL

CON

_CO

MB-

GSL

CON

_CO

MB-

OS1

kt re

ducti

on

0%

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Cum

ulati

ve s

hare

of r

educ

tion

in M

ID s

cena

rio

Absolute bymeasureCumulative

Key measures for non-EU countries – PM2.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300PR

_BAO

X-N

OF

WAS

TE_A

GR-

NO

F

PR_E

ARC-

NO

F

PR_F

ERT-

NO

F

PR_C

OKE

-NO

F

PR_H

EART

H-N

OF

PR_C

EM-N

OF

PR_S

INT-

NO

F

WAS

TE_R

ES-N

OF

PP_N

EW3-

BC1

PR_A

LPRI

M-N

OF

PR_R

EF-N

OF

PR_O

T_N

FME-

NO

F

DOM

_MB_

A-H

C1

PR_G

LASS

-NO

F

PP_E

X_O

TH3-

BC1

PP_E

X_O

TH1-

HC1

PR_O

THER

-NO

F

DOM

_MB_

A-BC

1

DOM

_MB_

A-FW

D

IN_O

C3-B

C1

PP_E

X_O

TH1-

BC1

PR_C

BLAC

K-N

OF

PP_E

X_O

TH-D

C

CON

_CO

MB3

-BC1

kt re

ducti

on

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cum

ulati

ve s

hare

of r

educ

tion

in M

ID s

cena

rio

Absolute by measure

Cumulative

Key measures for non-EU countries – NH3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70FC

ON

_URE

A-N

OF

WAS

TE_A

GR-

NO

F

AGR_

POU

LT-O

P

AGR_

POU

LT-L

H

AGR_

PIG

-PS

AGR_

PIG

-PL

AGR_

COW

S-DS

AGR_

BEEF

-OL

AGR_

BEEF

-OS

COW

S_30

00_M

ILK-

DS

AGR_

COW

S-DL

AGR_

OTA

NI-S

H

COW

S_30

00_M

ILK-

DL

kt re

ducti

on

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cum

ulati

ve s

hare

of r

educ

tion

in M

ID s

cena

rio

Absolute by measure

Cumulative

Conclusions

• A set of 15 measures has been identified that achieves Europe-wide the emission reduction of the Low* scenario. It involves largest reductions for

PM2.5 and NH3 emissions (relative to baseline)

• Priority pollutants/measures:

– Non-EU: PM2.5 (industry) and SO2 (power plants)

– EU-27: NH3

– and, to a lesser extent, in both groups on NOx and VOC.

• This a subset of the cost-effectiveness measures to achieve the mid scenario, but not necessarily the most cost-effective set to attain the impacts of the Low* scenario.

– In particular, if applied uniformly in all countries, such a sub-set would ask for measures in countries where they might not be cost-effective.

• However, the identified measures might guide negotiations on sectors to be included in technical annexes of the protocol

Detailed material

• In-depth information will be made available soon at the GAINS web site– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

• CIAM Report Version 2.1 – March 2011– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/images/stories/meetings/TFIAM39/

CIAM2011-1-v12.pdf

• Excel sheets with country-specific information for EU and non-EU countries