COUNCIL ACTION MEMO

City of Winchester

COUNCIL ACTION MEMO

☐ Resolution ☐ Ordinance ☒ Discussion To: Honorable Mayor and Members of City Council From: Shawn Hershberger, Director Subject: Presentation of Preliminary Housing Study Findings Meeting: City Council Work Session - Oct 12 2021

THE ISSUE:

This is a presentation of the preliminary findings of the housing study requested by Council. STRATEGIC PLAN:

Goal III: Advance the quality of life for all Winchester residents by increasing cultural, recreational, and tourism opportunities; enhance and maintain infrastructure and promote and improve public safety., Goal IV: Improve City services and advance the strategic plan goals by promoting a culture of transparency, efficiency, and innovation BACKGROUND INFORMATION:

In late 2020, the Common Council requested a housing study to be conducted in order to analyze Winchester's housing market and help identify opportunities for future housing initiatives. The City contracted with RKG Associates in April of 2021 to conduct the housing study. This is a presentation of RKG Associates' preliminary findings, pending finalization of the housing study report. BUDGET IMPACT:

This presentation does not have any direct budgetary impacts. OPTIONS:

This is a presentation only and no Council actions are required. RECOMMENDATION:

N/A ATTACHMENTS:

Housing Study Preliminary Findings Presentation winchester.housing.study.draft.10.8.21 Housing Study Presentation REVIEW: Shawn Hershberger, Director Approved - Sep 24 2021

Melisa Michelsen, City Attorney Approved - Sep 24 2021 Dan Hoffman, City Manager Approved - Sep 24 2021

MEETING HISTORY:

Presented at the September 30, 2021 - Planning and Economic Development Committee Meeting

Page 2 of 157

Winchester, VA Housing Market Analysis

Preliminary Findings Presentation

Page 3 of 157

DEFINING TERMS/GEOGRAPHIES

Page 4 of 157

SUBAREA BOUNDARIES

Housing analysis done at the citywide level as well as for six subareas

Subareas grouped because of their similar housing market characteristics

Residential Development Trends Analysis done at citywide level and for each subarea

The corresponding map reflects boundaries and subarea identification

Page 5 of 157

APPROACH INCOMES AND AFFORDABILITY

Rental Analysis Owner Analysis BaselineIncome Bands (2-Person) (3-Person) (4-Person)Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $19,550 $22,000 $26,500Very Low (50%) Income Limits $32,600 $36,650 $40,700Low (80%) Income Limits $52,100 $58,600 $65,100100% AMI $65,200 $73,300 $81,400120% AMI $78,240 $87,960 $97,680

Renter Income Thresholds

Owner Income Thresholds

Rental Analysis Owner Analysis BaselineIncome Bands (2-Person) (3-Person) (4-Person)Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $19,550 $22,000 $26,500Very Low (50%) Income Limits $32,600 $36,650 $40,700Low (80%) Income Limits $52,100 $58,600 $65,100100% AMI $65,200 $73,300 $81,400120% AMI $78,240 $87,960 $97,680

Page 6 of 157

APPROACH HOUSING VALUE ANALYSIS

Certain incomes can ”afford” a certain mortgage or rent payment HUD defines cost burdened at more than 30% of gross income Homeownership costs include principle, interest, taxes and insurance Rental housing calculation based on income Calculations based on HUD Income thresholds for Winchester region

The City’s housing units each carry a relative price if they were on the market Ownership units were measured against market value

Analysis compared assessed values against recent sales prices to determine value Corroborated findings against current listings

Rental units were measured against current asking rents Collected monthly rent data by subarea Used Zillow listings, ACS rent data, and information provided by local Realtors

Page 7 of 157


Corresponding Rent Thresholds

Corresponding Purchase Price Thresholds

Income Bands 2 3 4Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $489 $550 $663Very Low (50%) Income Limits $815 $916 $1,018Low (80%) Income Limits $1,303 $1,465 $1,628100% AMI $1,630 $1,833 $2,035120% AMI $1,956 $2,199 $2,442

Persons in Household

Single Family Condo Single Family CondoMax. Home Value Max. Home Value Max. Home Value Max. Home Value

30% $102,660 $92,966 $119,342 $106,86650% $171,023 $161,329 $198,814 $186,33780% $273,449 $263,755 $317,885 $305,408

100% $342,045 $332,351 $397,627 $385,151120% $410,454 $400,760 $477,153 $464,676

FHA BUYER CONVENTIONAL BUYERAMI Threshold

Page 8 of 157

DEMAND ANALYSIS

Page 9 of 157

44%

56%

Households by Tenure (2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)Winchester, VA

Owner HH Renter HH

Larger proportion of renter households

than owner households, typical

Page 10 of 157

15 to 24

17…

25 to 44862

18.6%

45 to 64

207744.7%

Over 651686 36.3%

Owner Households by Age of Head of HH

(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)City of Winchester 15 to

24380…

25 to 44252043.1%

45 to 64

198333.9%

Over 65965 16.5%

RenterHouseholds by Age of Head of HH

(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)City of Winchester

Younger households, ages 15-24, generally lack income and cash reserves for

home down payment

Nearly half of renter households are

headed by person 45+ years old

Page 11 of 157

30% and Below3597.7% 31% to 50%

3908.4%

51% to 80%635

13.7%

81% to 100%532

11.5%

101% to 120%454…

Over 120%2,27248.9%

Owner Households by HUD AMI(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

30% and Below1,001 17.1%

31% to 50%942

16.1%

51% to 80%1,637 28.0%

81% to 100%

632 10.8%

101% to 120%542 9.3%

Over 120%1,094 18.7%

Renter Households by HUD AMI(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

33% of renters earn less than $36,650 (50% of area AMI)

Income gap between renters

and owners substantial

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(316)

(115)

71

(171)

(531)

149

(34)

150

535

800

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4+ Persons Total

Change of Owner and Renter Households by Size (2010-2019)City of Winchester

Owner Renter

Page 13 of 157

1-Person114224.6%

2-Persons185840.0%

3-Persons810

17.4%

4+ Persons

83217.9%

Owner Households by Size(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

1-Person245141.9%

2-Persons133622.8%

3-Persons771

13.2%

4+ Persons129022.1%

Renter Households by Size(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

Page 14 of 157

Winchester predominately a renter community (56%) Number of renter households increased since 2010 while the number of homeowners

decreased Unmet demand for rental housing, particularly larger households, and Winchester’s relative

ownership housing affordability driving market conversions Trend likely to continue without new rental development, particularly for larger units

Renter Households are generally younger Consistent with national trends Younger households tend to have lower incomes, lack of down payment to purchase

KEY FINDINGSHOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS

Page 15 of 157

There is an income disparity between renters and owners Consistent with national trends Lower income households struggle with pricing, down payment, cost of maintenance Nearly 50% of owner households earn more than 120% AMI ($87,960) Approximately 70% of renter households earn less than 100% AMI


Page 16 of 157

SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Page 17 of 157

6,730

1,212

2,938

722

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Single Family Dwelling

Multifamily (2-5 Units)

Multifamily (6+ Units)

Townhome Condominium

Housing Units

Hou

sing

Typ

esDevelopment Patterns by Type

City of Winchester, VA

Nearly 60% of residential development is confined in detached single family dwellings. Roughly 30%

of these homes are rentals, an

Page 18 of 157

2,467

1,212

2,938

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Single Family/Townhome-Condo


Multifamily (6+)

Housing Units

Hou

sing

Typ

es

Rental Units by Structure Type City of Winchester, VA

Approximately 55% of Multifamily Units are contained

in structures with 1-5 units. Single family structures (detached dwellings and

attached townhome-condominiums) compose nearly 40% of multifamily rental units.

Page 19 of 157

154

2

466

37

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500




TownhomeCondominium

Housing Units

Hou

sing

Typ

esDevelopment Patterns by Type (Units Built 2010-2021)


Most development has been multifamily (6+ units), a relative

difference from development construction prior to 2010, which

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22

191

3

137

295

11

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Sub-Area 1

Sub-Area 2

Sub-Area 3

Sub-Area 4

Sub-Area 5

Sub-Area 6

Housing Units

Hou

sing

Typ

esDevelopment Patterns by Sub-Area (Units Built 2010-2021)


Subarea 5 had the largest development in the previous decade,

largely due to the newly constructed Meadow Branch Apartments.

Page 21 of 157

154

264

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Sub Area 2

Sub Area 5

Housing Units

Hou

sing

Typ

esMultifamily (6+) Development by Type (Units Built 2010-2021)


As illustrated, two large multifamily complexes

have been constructed in the previous ten years,

either in Sub Area 5 or Sub Area 2. The combined

complexes have higher FAR ratios than multifamily

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22

35

3

89

31

11

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Sub Area 1

Sub Area 2

Sub Area 3

Sub Area 4

Sub Area 5

Sub Area 6

Housing Units

Hou

sing

Typ

esSingle Family and Townhome-Condomimum (Units Built 2010-2021)


Page 23 of 157

Housing conversions creating imbalance in typical rental housing by housing type Nearly 40% of rental units are contained in either detached single family homes or attached

townhome-condominiums. The total of rental units within structures that are 5 units or fewer exceed the total of rental

units within structures greater than 5 units

Housing differs within the City’s subareas Subarea 5 has the most detached single-family homes of any subarea while composing 70%

of housing types within its subarea. Subarea 6 has the largest proportion of detached single-family homes of any subarea while

composing 73% of housing types within its subarea. The largest proportion of multifamily rental units among all subareas is in subarea 3,

composing 60% of housing types. Subarea 1 has the largest housing diversity among all subareas

KEY FINDINGSHOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Page 24 of 157

Housing development predominantly has been multifamily since 2010 Due to large multifamily complexes- Meadow Branch Apartments and Jubal Square

Apartments Developers do not make enough money on low-density development due to high land costs Redevelopment requires greater density to be profitable Market is reacting to greatest demand, regional land use regulation constraints Subarea 4 constructed the most detached single-family dwellings in the previous decade

KEY FINDINGS HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Page 25 of 157

HOMEOWNERSHIPAFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

Page 26 of 157

KEY ASSUMPTIONS HOMEOWNERSHIP AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS Homeownership more than just ability to pay mortgage

Qualifying credit score Down payment Renovation/rehabilitation costs

VERY important in Winchester’s most affordable ownership units Upkeep and maintenance costs HOA fees for condominiums

Lowest income households have several barriers to ownership Typically, many of the above issues

Page 27 of 157

APPROACHHOMEOWNERSHIP AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS Analysis uses both FHA lending standards and conventional lending standards

FHA (3.5% down payment) simulates ‘worst case scenario’ Conventional (20.0% down payment) assumes ‘best case’

Nationally, lending for home purchases is about 90% FHA We cannot determine exact numbers in Winchester because the data is not available at local

level Analyzing both FHA and Conventional lending scenarios provides range of affordability for

purchasing

Analysis shows the balance between “supply” and “demand” for specific income groups Supply – Number of ownership units that are affordable to households in that AMI group Demand - Total households that exist in Winchester with incomes in that AMI group

Page 28 of 157

AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISSINGLE FAMILY OWNERSHIP SUPPLY

Using FHA standards, the largest portion of single-family homes are priced between $171,023 and $273,449 , consistent with households earning 50% to 80% AMI.

Single Family Detached Home Supply by AffordabilityCity of Winchester, VAAMI Threshold

Min Value Max. Value Supply Percent Min Value Max. Value Supply PercentTotal 4,692 100% 4,692 100%30% $0 $102,660 51 1.1% $0 $119,342 113 2.4%50% $102,661 $171,023 586 12.5% $119,342 $198,814 1,140 24.3%80% $171,024 $273,449 1,920 40.9% $198,814 $317,885 1,735 37.0%100% $273,450 $342,045 653 13.9% $317,885 $397,627 713 15.2%120% $342,046 $410,454 581 12.4% $397,627 $477,153 489 10.4%120%+ $410,455 901 19.2% $477,154 502 10.7%

FHA BUYER CONVENTIONAL BUYER

Page 29 of 157

AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISCONDOMINIUM HOMEOWNERSHIP SUPPLY

Most Townhome-Condominiums are priced within the 50%-80% AMI threshold, same as detached single-family homes.

Townhome-Condominium Attached Home Supply by AffordabilityCity of Winchester, VAAMI Threshold

Min Value Max. Value Supply Percent Min Value Max. Value Supply PercentTotal 293 100% 293 100%30% $0 $92,966 2 0.7% $0 $106,866 7 2.4%50% $92,967 $161,329 41 14.0% $106,867 $186,337 72 24.6%80% $161,330 $263,755 213 72.7% $186,338 $305,408 192 65.5%100% $263,756 $332,351 21 7.2% $305,409 $385,151 12 4.1%120% $332,352 $400,760 9 3.1% $385,152 $464,676 10 3.4%120%+ $400,761 7 2.4% $464,677 0 0.0%


Page 30 of 157

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Single Family Townhome Condominium

Ownership Housing Affordability by Unit Type and HUD Income ThresholdCity of Winchester, VA

Under 30% 31%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% 120%+

54.5%

= Percent of Units Affordable to households earning (80%

87.4%

Page 31 of 157

AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISHOMEOWNERSHIP GAP/SURPLUS

Ownership Housing Supply and Demand by HUD AMI Income ThresholdCity of Winchester, VA

FHA ConventionalAMI Threshold Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count CountTotal 4,985 100% 4,985 100% 4,642 100% 343 34330% of AMI (Extremely Low Income) and Below 53 1.1% 120 2.4% 359 7.7% (306) (239)31%-50% of AMI (Very Low Income) 627 12.6% 1,212 24.3% 390 8.4% 237 82251%-80% of AMI (Low Income) 2,133 42.8% 1,927 38.7% 635 13.7% 1,498 1,29281%-100% of AMI 674 13.5% 725 14.5% 532 11.5% 142 193101%-120% of AMI 590 11.8% 499 10.0% 454 9.8% 136 45121% of AMI and Above 908 18.2% 502 10.1% 2,272 48.9% (1,364) (1,770)

Gap

FHA Buyer Conventional Buyer

Supply (Single Family, Townhouse/Condominium)

Demand (No. of Owner Households)

Under FHA Standards, Winchester lacks ownership housing supply for households earning below 30% of AMI and above 121% of AMI

Lack of supply at the highest end is driving development decisions, creating downward pressure on market (increasing prices)

Page 32 of 157

(306)

237

1,498

142 136

(1,364)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%

Hou

sing

Uni

ts

AMI Level

Ownership Housing Supply/Demand Equilibrium by HUD Income ThresholdCity of Winchester, VA

A 'Surplus' of units indicate there are more housing units priced to this income group than demand

from existing Winchester

A 'Gap' of units indicate there are more Winchester

households in that income group than housing units

affordable to their ability to pay.

Page 33 of 157

In general, Winchester has a large supply of affordable home-ownership opportunities for households making between 50% and 80% AMI Only 14% of ownership units are available for households earning under 50% AMI Under FHA standards, only 1% of homes are available for households earning below 30%

AMI, creating a major shortfall

Winchester does not have enough housing units to meet demand at the highest income levels (over 120% AMI/$87,960) Subarea 5 has the largest supply Estimates indicate a gap of nearly 1,400 owner occupied households Lack of supply of high-end ownership housing drives up prices and demand for less-expensive

units due to stringer demand Has impact on future affordability

KEY FINDINGS HOMEOWNERSHIP AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

Page 34 of 157

RENTALAFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

Page 35 of 157

APPROACHRENTAL AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

Rental analysis examines prices and corresponding number of households able to afford those prices HUD defines income thresholds by household size and bedroom count’

Analysis shows the balance between “supply” and “demand” for specific income groups Supply – Number of ownership units that exist in Winchester that are affordable to

households in that AMI group Demand - Total households that exist in Winchester with incomes in that AMI group

Page 36 of 157

AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISRENTAL SUPPLY

Roughly 60% of rental units are priced below 80% AMI threshold ($52,100); fewer than 1% priced above 120% AMI ($78,240)

19% priced below 50% AMI (including 80 income-controlled units) Nearly 20% of renter households earn less than 30% AMI

Rent Levels Minimum Maximum Count PercentTotal 6,617 100.0%Under 30% of AMI $0 $489 188 2.8%30% to 50% $490 $815 1,063 16.1%50% to 80% $816 $1,303 2,778 42.0%80% to 100% $1,304 $1,630 1,647 24.9%100% to 120% $1,631 $1,956 910 13.7%Over 120% of AMI $1,957 33 0.5%

Rent Thresholds Total

Page 37 of 157

Housing in Winchester predominantly priced between 50% and 80% AMI, especially among townhome-condominium units.

Largest number of detached single-family homes priced above 120% AMI located in Subarea 5 (467 total homes priced above $410,454)

Using FHA Standards, only 5.5% of townhome-condominiums are priced above 100% AMI

KEY FINDINGSHOUSING VALUE ANALYSIS

Page 38 of 157

KEY FINDINGS RENTAL AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

AMI Threshold Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%Annual HH Income $19,550 $32,600 $52,100 $65,200 $78,240 $78,720+Rent Level $489 $815 $1,303 $1,630 $1,956 $1,968+TOTALSupply 188 1,065 2,782 1,649 911 33Demand 1,001 942 1,637 632 542 1,094Gap (813) 124 1,145 1,017 369 (1,062)

Substantial unmet demand at the lowest (under 30% AMI) and highest (over 120% AMI) ends of the income spectrum

Page 39 of 157

(813)

121

1,141 1,015

367

(1,062)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%

Hou

sing

Uni

ts

AMI Level

Rental Housing Supply/Demand Gap by HUD Income ThresholdCity of Winchester, VA

There are rental supply needs for the highest end (Above 120%

AMI)

Major supply deficiencies for households earning under 30%

AMI.

Page 40 of 157

Most vulnerable households substantially underserve More than 81% of households earning below 30% AMI are cost burdened Interviews with local housing professionals indicate most affordable units also worst

condition

New development priced for 100% AMI to 120% AMI income range Meeting unmet demand of higher income renters However, new development not robust enough to mitigate rent escalation being faster than

cost of living

Lack of larger (2+ bedroom) apartments causing conversion of traditional ownership units to rental Regulations limiting the development of units with more bedrooms will perpetuate this

trend, particularly for townhouse style rental units

KEY FINDINGSRENTAL AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

Page 41 of 157

FUTUREAFFORDABILITY PROJECTIONS

Page 42 of 157

2026 Household demand Collected ESRI detailed projection rates (2021-2026) by household income Applied ESRI projection rates to current household demand by tenure (Renter vs. Owner)

based on HUD defined income thresholds Projected the number of renter and owner households demanding housing units in 2026

2026 Housing unit supply Collected number of multifamily housing units expected to be constructed by 2026 through

the City of Winchester Planning Department Added these pipeline units to the current supply of rental housing units in the city’s

boundaries

METHODDOLOGYPROJECTED AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

Page 43 of 157

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Over 120% Total

Hou

seho

lds

Projected Change in Ownership Households by HUD AMI (2021-2026) City of Winchester, VA

Page 44 of 157

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Over 120% Total

Hou

seho

lds

Projected Change in Renter Households by HUD AMI City of Winchester, VA

Page 45 of 157

(745)

14

1,126

1,409

813

(1,350)(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%

Hou

sing

Uni

tsProjected Supply/Demand Equilibrium for

Rental Units 2021-2026City of Winchester, VA

Major growth of supply-demand gap, reflective of projected

insufficient construction of 120% AMI units, based on historical

Due to future construction of multifamily complexes,

projected to be aimed at rental households earning between

80%-120% AMI

Page 46 of 157

Rapid development relative to previous decade (2010-2020) 840 rental units and 240 townhome-condominium units expected to be delivered in next five

years Large apartment complexes expected to be under construction soon, near the downtown

corridor (targeting young professionals) 170 of rental units expected to be age restricted (55+)

Known development projects focused on market-rate development (estimating 80%-120% AMI units based on historical trends) Number of income-controlled units is unknown

Impacts of economy; COVID-19 will affect the new unit construction Telecommuting/preferences of being outside major urban areas increasing demand in City Push from Northern Virginia skewed to higher income backets Price escalation likely will increase

KEY FINDINGS AFFORDABILITY PROJECTIONS

Page 47 of 157

Supply-demand balance projected to worsen for lower income households “Surplus” of housing between 30% and 50% AMI diminished while under 30% still substantial Will create even greater cost burdening/displacement of the most vulnerable residents

Growing pressure from more affluent households will drive price escalation Demand will outpace supply Without new development, prices will continue to rise faster than inflation This is for both rental and ownership Rehabilitation of units will decrease “affordable supply

Increasing demand from affluent homeowners may reverse conversion trends This will adversely impact larger, lower income households substantially Decrease available converted units AND drive pricing up for those that remain


Page 48 of 157

Housing Study and Neighborhood Revitalization Strategy

City of Winchester, Virginia

Page 1

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A. OVERVIEW AND PURPOSE

Housing affordability is a challenge throughout the United States. Communities of all sizes

and development intensities are struggling to find approaches to address housing needs that

both provide market/financial feasibility for the development community while addressing

real and perceived concerns from existing residents. The housing challenges in the

Shenandoah Valley have been consistent with the national marketplace but are now

increasing faster due to the continued growth and expansion of the greater Washington DC

metropolitan market. Simply put, growing economic and housing pressures west along

Route 7 and Interstate 66—along with the natural growth of the Shenandoah Valley as a place

to live and work—are rapidly changing housing market equilibriums. The ultimate effect has

been that housing market trends prices within the Winchester/Frederick County market have

been escalating faster than incomes

RKG Associates, Inc. (RKG) was retained by the City of Winchester, Virginia, to undertake a

citywide housing market analysis to understand current and projected housing

supply/demand equilibrium for all housing types across all income levels. This housing study

is intended to quantify these needs and provide recommendations on how to better position

the city in meeting those needs.

B. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

1. Previous Analyses

Prior to summarizing the findings of this current analysis, it is worth recapping key points

regarding housing for the City of Winchester and Frederick County as reported in 2018.1

• City of Winchester – The need for owner and renter housing continues to rise with

the more acute need identified for the latter. In addition to general renter demand,

need is driven by seniors (an aging in place population) and households earning less

than 120 percent of the area median income. At that time, it was reported that, the City

of Winchester’s future residential development was targeted to students, young

professionals, and empty nesters seeking higher density apartments and

condominiums, stating that “Winchester has enough housing to meet the needs of large

households and couples with children” and with a plan focusing on higher quality

apartments near Shenandoah University and replacement of obsolete and blighted

housing with higher density units.

1 Housing the Northern Shenandoah Valley – Trends, Projections, and Strategies, prepared for the Northern Shenandoah

Valley Regional Commission, dated June 2018.

Page 49 of 157



Page 2

• Frederick County – Increasing overall demand will need to result in increasing

housing production, which is inclusive of current and expected income levels for all

households. Like the City of Winchester, much of the increased demand is anticipated

to come from an aging population indicating that owner housing should include a

variety of sizes and price points and that renter housing may more appropriately

reflect lower and medium density developments, as downsizing seniors may also

compete with millennials (initial household formations) for such units.

The current analysis reveals these challenges remain and are becoming more acute. The

summary findings of this current analysis are offered next.

2. Housing Demand Analysis Summary Findings

• The City of Winchester predominately is a renter community. More than half (56%) of the

city’s households rent their housing. This finding is not surprising, given the several

(and increasing) large commercial multifamily developments in Winchester. Recent

development have increased the number of renter households since 2010. However,

new multifamily development is not the sole reason for increased renter households.

Census data indicate that the net number of homeowners decreased since 2010,

indicating that traditional ownership units are being converted for rental use.

• The Census data indicate these conversions largely are due to unmet demand for rental

housing, particularly larger households. Traditional ownership units in Winchester are

relatively older, smaller, and lower value than Frederick County, making market

conversions for these units more financially feasible. The market projection analysis

indicates that this trend likely to continue without new rental development,

particularly for larger units.

• Renter households in Winchester are generally younger. In addition to the influence of

Shenandoah University, the higher incidence of younger households being renters is

consistent with national trends. Younger households tend to have lower incomes, lack

of down payment to purchase, and typically prefer to be more mobile to follow

employment/ family opportunities.

• Census data indicate that renters, on average, have much lower incomes in Winchester than

homeowners. This finding is consistent with national trends, as lower income

households struggle with home prices, down payment, and the ability to address

maintenance costs. Data indicate that nearly 50% of owner households earn more than

120% AMI ($87,960) while approximately 70% of renter households earn less than

100% AMI.

• Senior households continue to increase, as a share of the overall housing market. Households

headed by persons aged 65 and older, increased by 26.5% between 2010 and 2020, and

Page 50 of 157



Page 3

are projected to account for almost 19% of all households in Winchester by 2030. These

households, typically in their retirement years, often are considering downsizing their

housing, replacing owner housing with renter housing, or seeking some assisted care

housing.

3. Housing Supply Analysis Summary Findings

• The growth of renter households has outpaced the development of new traditional rental

housing units (multifamily developments). Housing conversions—the use of a

traditionally owner-occupied unit (i.e., single-family home) as a rental housing unit—

have increased in Winchester, creating an imbalance in typical rental housing by

housing type. Nearly 40% of rental units in the city are contained in either detached

single-family homes or attached townhome/condominiums. The total of rental units

within structures that contain 5 units or fewer exceed the total of rental units within

structures greater than 5 units

• Housing differs within the City’s six subareas. Each defined subarea of the city (see page

50) has a different housing makeup, often determined by the period housing was built

in that area. Those subareas developed after the 1960s are more traditional single-

family subdivisions. For example, Subareas 5 and 6 have the most detached single-

family homes and largest proportion of units that are single-family homes within

Winchester of any subarea while composing 70% of housing types within its subarea.

In contrast, Subarea 1 has the largest housing diversity among all subareas and some

of the oldest housing in Winchester.

• Housing development in Winchester predominantly has been multifamily since 2010. Recent

large multifamily developments—Meadow Branch Apartments and Jubal Square

Apartments—have added hundreds of housing units in relatively small lard area. The

focus on multifamily development is being driven, in large part due, to the fact that

developers do not make enough money on low-density development due to high land

costs. Further, redevelopment, which is required in Winchester due to the relatively

small amount of greenfields, requires greater density to be profitable. Information

collected through interviews with local real estate professionals indicate that the

market is reacting to greatest demand and regional land use regulation constraints,

particularly within Frederick County.

4. Homeownership Affordability Analysis Summary Findings

• In general, Winchester has a large supply of affordable homeownership opportunities for

households making between 50% and 80% AMI. However, this finding is slightly

misleading. At a base level, there are very few options for households earning at the

lower end of this spectrum. Further, appreciation has been substantial in Winchester

meaning this affordability is waning as prices escalate higher than income levels.

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Page 4

• Escalation is due, in part, because Winchester does not have enough housing units to meet

demand at the highest income levels. The analysis indicates there is a supply gap of nearly

1,400 units for households earning above 120% of AMI. This imbalance is a lead

contributor to price escalations, as competition for the city’s limited homeownership

supply requires buyers to offer above asking price.

5. Rental Housing Affordability Analysis Summary Findings

• The most vulnerable households in Winchester are substantially underserved. At a base level,

more than 81% of households earning below 30% AMI are cost burdened (paying

above 30% of their gross income for housing). Serving households earning below 50%

of AMI is a national challenge but is growing in Winchester. Further, those units that

are available to these households oftentimes are also in the worst condition,

diminishing quality of life.

• New rental housing development is being priced for 100% AMI to 120% AMI income range.

While this finding is not surprising given the substantial unmet demand from these

higher earners, new development has not been robust enough to mitigate rent

escalation being faster than household income. Research done for this analysis

indicates that unmet demand, particularly for households earning below 80% of AMI,

will increase in the future. This issue is particularly challenging for larger renter

households as traditional apartment complexes have limited supply of 3+ bedroom

units and very few are being developed.

• The lack of larger (3+ bedroom) apartments causing conversion of traditional ownership units

to rental. Regulations limiting the development of units with more bedrooms will

perpetuate this trend, particularly for townhouse style rental units. The city’s older,

smaller, and comparatively lower cost ownership housing makes it more attractive for

investors seeking opportunities to serve this market.

6. Projected Affordability Analysis Summary Findings

The city’s development pipeline is more robust than past years. The city’s building permit database

indicates there is more development interest now than had been experienced in the past

decade. Approximately 840 rental units and 240 townhome-condominium units are expected

to be delivered in next five years. The apartment units are clustered in some larger

developments near the downtown corridor (targeting Shenandoah University and young

professionals). Further, roughly 200 of rental units expected to be age restricted (55+).

These known development projects are focused on market-rate development with little price diversity.

While it is not certain whether income-controlled units will become part of the program for

these projects, there is no indication that any will be added. The current market rate pricing

typically targets above 100% AMI (above 120% AMI for ownership housing). While the new

housing could ease the market pressure on lower-cost units, the lack of any income-controlled

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Page 5

units will continue to limit housing access and choice for the city’s existing modest-income

households.

Impacts of the current economy and COVID-19 will affect the new unit construction. In short, part

of the boom in housing demand in Winchester is the push from households to take advantage

of new options for telecommuting and from preferences of being outside higher density,

urban areas. Much of this increase in demand is from other Northern Virginia areas closer to

Washington DC. These buyers and renters tend to have higher incomes, skewing the market’s

historic ability to pay levels. As a result, price escalation likely will increase without new

income-controlled development.

Growing pressure from these more affluent households will increase price escalation. The projection

analysis indicates that demand will outpace supply despite the uptick in building permits.

Without new development, prices will continue to rise faster than inflation for both rental and

ownership housing. Further, many households are acquiring ‘fixer-upper’ units,

rehabilitating these units (particularly near Downtown). This effort will directly decrease the

city’s existing affordable supply. While increasing demand from affluent homeowners

willing to purchase and rehabilitate housing may reverse conversion trends, it will adversely

impact larger, lower income households substantially by decreasing the availability of

converted units and drive pricing up for those converted units that remain in the rental pool.

Ultimately, the supply-demand balance is projected to worsen for lower income households. Housing

costs (both rental and owner) have been escalating substantially faster than incomes in

Winchester. As a result, the little supply that is affordable to households earning under 50%

of AMI has been decreasing due to market forces. Concurrently, the number of households

earning less than 50% of AMI has been remaining steady. Without market intervention, cost

burdening and displacement of the most vulnerable Winchester residents will continue.

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Page 6

2 BASELINE METRICS

A. DEMOGRAPHICS

1. Population Trends

In 2010, the population of the City of Winchester was 26,203 persons. The City’s population

increased to an estimated 28,705 persons by 2020, a growth rate of 9.5%. The projected2

population for 2030, at 31,107 persons represents an 8.4% growth or approximately 2,402

persons (like the growth of 2,502 persons in the prior decade). In comparison, the Frederick

County population increased by 10.6% (2010 – 2020) or by approximately 8,269 persons to a

2020 population of 86,574. The projected 2030 population, at 101,471 persons, represents an

increase of 17.2% over 2020 for an increase of 14,898 persons (which is not quite double the

growth of the prior decade). The population of Virginia exhibited a 9.3% population growth

over the 2010 – 2020 period and is projected to increase by a similar 9.2% by 2030, resulting in

a 2030 population of nearly 9.55 million persons (Table 1). Despite projected population

growth (2030) for the City of Winchester, the rate of growth is less than the prior decade, while

the rate of projected growth for Frederick County exceeds the 2010 -2020 period and the rate

of growth for the state is comparable.

Table 1 – Comparative Population Trends

26,203 28,705 9.5% 31,107 8.4%

78,305 86,574 10.6% 101,471 17.2%

8,001,024 8,744,273 9.3% 9,546,958 9.2%

Source : Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and RKG (2021)

Frederick County, VA

Virginia

Winchester City, VA

Total Population 2010 2020 % Δ 2010 2030 % Δ 2020

a. Group Quarters Population

The comparative population in group quarters3, for the City of Winchester and Frederick

County, are presented in Figure 1, noting the following:

• City of Winchester – Total group quarters population was 976 persons with 16.1%

(157 persons) in institutional facilities and the majority of these at 79.6% (125 persons)

were in nursing facilities. The remaining 83.9% of the group quarters population (819

persons) were in non-institutional facilities, led by 91.2% (747 persons) in colleges or

universities.

2 Population projections and age distributions developed by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service,

University of Virginia. 3 Delineated by type of Group Quarters from the U. S. Census for 2010.

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Page 7

• Frederick County – Total group quarters population was 967 persons (marginally less

than the City) with 75.2% (727 persons) in institutional facilities, led by 519 persons

(53.7%) in correctional facilities. The remaining 24.8% of the group quarters

population (240 persons) were in non-institutional facilities, generally specified as

including emergency and transitional shelters, domestic violence shelters, and adult

residential treatment centers, as examples.

Figure 1 – 2010 Group Quarters Population by Type of Group Quarters

Table 2 presents the overall change in the total group quarters population4 (2010 – 2020) for

the City and Frederick County with a sharp difference in the estimated percent change as the

percent change in Frederick County is slightly more than double that for the City of

Winchester.

Table 2 – Change in Group Quarters Population

2010 2020 % Δ 2010 2020 % Δ

Total Population 976 1,079 10.6% 967 1,172 21.2%

Source : ESRI and RKG (2021)

Population in Group

Quarters

City of Winchester Frederick County

2. Age Distribution Trends

In terms of age distribution (Figure 2) and with respect to housing demand, the City realized

population growth among those aged 20 to 34 years (6.9% over the last decade) with growth

projected to continue through 2030, a growth rate of 13.1% for an additional 865 persons in

this age cohort. This is more than double the population increase in this age cohort over the

2010 – 2020 period. The 20 to 34 age cohort is generally considered to be those in their family

formation years, typically establishing their own residences and often as rental properties.,

which could serve to increase residential demand throughout the City.

4 Data from ESRI did not provide a distinction for 2020 group quarters population with respect to institutional and

non-institutional settings.

- 32

12

5

-

74

7

-

72

51

9

11

5

92

-

78

24

0

16

2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Correctional Juvenile Nursing Other Inst. College Military Othet Non-Inst.City of Winchester Frederick County

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Page 8

Although not as pronounced, the City of Winchester also realized and is projected to continue

to realize population growth in the 35 to 44 age cohort. The projected growth to 2030

represents 180 persons or about 100 persons less than in the prior decade. Nonetheless, those

in this cohort are often represented by first-time homebuyers, potentially further impacting

residential demand throughout the City of Winchester.

The population in the 45 to 54 age cohort declined in the City of Winchester by nearly 440

persons in the last decade, but a rebound is projected for the 2020 – 2030 study period with a

growth of 7.2% or approximately 220 persons, suggesting some additional demand for

housing as they may seek to upgrade to newer and/or larger residences.

The City’s population aged 55 to 64 years, often pre-retirement years and indicative of those

seeking to downsize their housing, increased by 436 persons in the last decade but is projected

to decline by 466 persons by 2030. It is possible that as this population declines, some portion

of their existing housing may serve to meet the “move-up” demand from those in the 45 to 54

age cohort.

Lastly, those aged 65 and older, in their retirement years and often considering downsizing

their housing, replacing owner housing with renter housing, or seeking some assisted care

housing, increased by 26.5% from 2010 -2020. This represented an increase of 976 persons. The

projected growth to 2030, at a similar 23.1%, represents an additional 1,074 persons in this age

cohort. In 2010, those aged 65 and older accounted for approximately 14% of the City’s

population and this is projected to increase to an 18.4% representation by 2030.

Figure 2 – Population by Age Cohort – City of Winchester

6,8

75

6,2

01

3,1

00

3,5

07

2,8

44 3,6

76

7,6

98

6,6

26

3,3

81

3,0

68

3,2

80

4,6

52

8,2

25

7,4

91

3,5

62

3,2

89

2,8

14

5,7

26

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

less than 20 years 20 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and older

2010 2020 2030

The changes by population age cohort for Frederick County (Figure 3) present a similar

pattern to the City of Winchester with some notable variances, including:

• For those in the 20 to 34 age cohort, the growth in Frederick County was 1,807 persons

and is projected to be a comparable 1,855 person by 2030. This differs from the City

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Page 9

of Winchester where the projected growth is more robust, but nonetheless continues

to represent demand for potential rental housing.

• Unlike the City, Frederick County lost population (4.4%) in 35 to 44 age cohort in the

last decade, however projected growth for 2030, at 32.1% represents an increase of

slightly more than 3,500 persons among those often-representing first-time

homebuyers.

• The growth in the 65 and older cohort for Frederick County was 6,150 persons in the

2010 – 2020 period and projected at nearly 5,960 persons for 2030, representing growth

rates of 61.8% and 37%, respectively. In 2010, persons in this age cohort represented

12.7% of the countywide population and are projected to represent 21.7% by 2030.

Figure 3 – Population by Age Cohort – Frederick County

21

,64

2

13

,39

5

11

,43

1

12

,55

8

9,3

25

9,9

54

22

,19

8

15

,20

2

10

,92

3

10

,80

0

11

,34

6

16

,10

4

25

,70

5

17

,05

7

14

,43

2

11

,41

1

10

,80

5

22

,06

2

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

less than 20 years 20 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and older

2010 2020 2030

3. Population Diversity Trends

Trends in population diversity5 for the City of Winchester (Figure 4 ) indicate a population

which is predominantly White, although diminishing as a percent of the total City population

over time, from approximately 19,521 persons in 2010 to 19,659 persons in 2025. Although the

City’s Black population is projected to increase over the study period, reaching approximately

3,037 persons in 2025, as a percentage of the City’s population it is constant at an 11%

representation. The population identifying as Other (a broadly inclusive category) is projected

to increase from a 12% representation of the City’s population in 2010 to a 23% representation

in 2025. Persons of Hispanic/Latin heritage are projected to increase from approximately 4,035

persons in 2010 to 6,447 persons in 2025, increasing from a 15% representation of the

population (2010) to a 23% representation (2025).

5 Population diversity trends offered by Esri, a vendor of socioeconomic data and proprietary modeling. Note that

the “Other” category includes American Indian, Pacific Islander and persons reporting one or more other races.

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Figure 4 – Population Diversity Trends – City of Winchester

75%

11%

2%

12%15%

71%

11%

3%

16%20%

68%

11%

3%

23% 23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White Black Asian Other Hispanic Ethnicity

2010 2020 2025

The population diversity trends for Frederick County (Figure 5) present a similar pattern to

those for the City of Winchester with a predominant, although diminishing, percent of

persons identifying as White. Like the City, persons identifying as Black have remained stable

in the percent representation of the countywide population. Also, persons in Frederick

County identifying as Other, and those of Hispanic/Latin heritage, are projected to realize

marked increases in their percentage representation of the total population.

Figure 5 – Population Diversity Trends – Frederick County

89%

4% 1%7% 7%

86%

5%1%

10% 10%

84%

5% 2%

12% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White Black Asian Other Hispanic Ethnicity

2010 2020 2025

4. Net Migration 2018

RKG reviewed information offered by EMSI6 to develop a comparison (2018 metrics) for

“inflow” and “outflow” metrics for the City of Winchester and Frederick County (Figure 6)

and indicating that there was a net “outflow” of population for the City of Winchester (a loss

of 605 persons) compared to a net “inflow” of population for Frederick County (1,144

6 EMSI is a national vendor of socioeconomic data and proprietary modeling. The migration data reflects the

amount of domestic taxpayer migration. The source and design of this taxpayer-based dataset does not represent

the entire population, but rather is a good indicator of migrating workers within the labor force.

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Page 11

persons). The “inflow” for Frederick County was 2.6 times greater than the City of

Winchester, while the “outflow” was 1.6 times greater – a reflection, in part of the overall

differences in total population, but also perhaps due to employment opportunities within

each location.

Figure 6 – Migration Metrics for 2018

a. City of Winchester

While the City of Winchester exhibited a net “outflow” of population there were two locations

where this was dominant (Table 3) including Frederick County (VA) and Berkeley County

(WV) which combined accounted for 87.5% of the 605-person decline. Of the top ten

destinations identified in Table 3 the net “inflow” to the City of Winchester was 238 persons.

Table 3 – Migration (2018) – City of Winchester

"inflow" "outflow" Net

Frederick County, VA 847 1,264 (417)

Loudoun County, VA 113 75 39

Berkeley County, WV 95 208 (113)

Carroll County, MD 84 4 79

Shenandoah County, VA 78 75 4

Clarke County, VA 66 57 9

Hampshire County, WV 65 40 25

Fairfax County, VA 64 42 22

Prince George's County, MD 64 3 61

Warren County, VA 58 68 (10)

All Other Locations 625 929 (304)

Total 2,158 2,763 (605)

Source : EMSI and RKG (2021)

2018 Migration - City of

Winchester

2,158 2,763

(605)

5,517

4,373

1,144

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

"inflow" "outflow" NetCity of Winchester Frederick County

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Page 12

b. Frederick County

Frederick County experienced net “inflow” of population there were two locations (Table 4)

exhibiting a net “outflow” including Berkeley County (WV) and Shenandoah County (VA)

which combined accounted for a loss (or were the recipient) of 243 persons. Of the top ten

destinations identified in Table 4 the City of Winchester and Loudon County (VA) accounted

for nearly 71.5 % of the net “inflow” to Frederick County.

Table 4 – Migration (2018) – Frederick County

"inflow" "outflow" Net

Winchester City County, VA 1,264 847 417

Loudoun County, VA 587 187 400

Warren County, VA 385 219 167

Berkeley County, WV 292 513 (221)

Fairfax County, VA 261 83 178

Douglas County, NE 256 - 256

Shenandoah County, VA 224 246 (22)

Prince William County, VA 174 86 88

Clarke County, VA 152 140 12

Hampshire County, WV 95 85 11

All Other Locations 1,828 1,968 (141)

Total 5,517 4,373 1,144


2018 Migration - Frederick

County

5. Income Trends

Selected income metrics for the City of Winchester (Figure 7) indicate that median household

incomes are projected to increase by 4.9% (2020 – 2025) or by $2,625. The projected growth in

average household income, at 9.6% is greater and represents an increase of nearly $7,725. Per

capita income is projected to increase by a similar 9.4% or approximately $3,020.

Figure 7 – Income Metrics for the City of Winchester

$5

3,3

42

$8

0,6

60

$3

2,2

45

$5

5,9

67

$8

8,3

83

$3

5,2

64

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

Median Household Average Household Per Capita2020 2025

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Page 13

Frederick County income metrics (Figure 8) indicate that median household incomes are

projected to increase by 5.4% (2020 – 2025) or by nearly $4,460. The projected growth in

average household income, at 8.6% is greater (although less than for the City of Winchester)

and represents an increase of nearly $9,190. Per capita income is projected to increase by a

similar 8.5% (also somewhat less than the City of Winchester) or by approximately $3,345.

Figure 8 – Income Metrics for Frederick County

Despite slightly greater projected growth rates for the income measure for the City of

Winchester, in terms of absolute dollars, and as a percentage of the same measures for

Frederick County (Figure 9) they are lagging, declining nominally with respect to per capita

income.

Figure 9 – Income Comparisons for the City of Winchester to Frederick County

$8

2,7

65

$1

07

,15

9

$3

9,2

98

$8

7,2

22

$1

16

,34

6

$4

2,6

43

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Median Household Average Household Per Capita

2020 2025

64.4% 64.2%

75.3% 76.0%

82.1% 82.7%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

2020 2025Median Household Average Household Per Capita

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Page 14

B. HOUSING

1. Housing and Household Trends

Trends in housing and households (occupied housing) for the City of Winchester and

Frederick County are presented in Table 5. The percent change in the number of housing units

over the last decade, and projected for 2025, for Frederick County are well above those for the

City of Winchester. This also holds for the number of vacant housing units, noting that the

City of Winchester experienced a decline in vacant units in the last decade.

Similarly, owner households declined in the City of Winchester in the last decade but are

projected to increase by 2025, albeit to a count less than in 2010. Steady growth has been

realized and is projected for owner households in Frederick County. In 2010, owner

households accounted for 45.8% of the City’s households and this is projected to decline to a

41.3% representation by 2025. In Frederick County the owner households were 78.6% in 2010

and are projected to increase to 82.7 % by 2025 or nearly twice that of the City of Winchester.

Renter households constitute the majority of households in the City of Winchester, accounting

for 54.2% in 2010 and projected to represent 58.7% in 2025. Overall growth rates for renter

households are well ahead of owner households in the 2010 -2020 period and marginally

greater for the 2025 projection. Conversely, renter households, as a percent of total

households, is declining in Frederick County from 21.4% in 2010 to 17.3% in 2025.

For the City of Winchester and for Frederick County, both metrics run counter to current

national averages indicating 64% owner units and 36% renter units. The disparity between

the City and Frederick County suggests that currently, and in the near-term future, persons

seeking homeownership have greater options and availability in Frederick County as very

few rental housing developments are being built outside Winchester.

The average household size for the City of Winchester and for Frederick County increased

over the last decade and is projected to continue to do so by 2025, with the average household

size being approximately ten percent greater in Frederick County when compared to the City

of Winchester during the study period.

Conversely, the median age of householders is approximately ten percent younger in the City

of Winchester when compared to Frederick County, although both continue to exhibit an

aging population.

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Table 5 – Housing and Household Trends

2010 2020 % Δ 2025 % Δ 2010 2020 % Δ 2025 % Δ

11,872 12,328 3.8% 12,604 2.2% 31,346 37,044 18.2% 41,140 11.1%

10,607 11,161 5.2% 11,410 2.2% 28,864 34,381 19.1% 38,037 10.6%

4,861 4,621 -4.9% 4,717 2.1% 22,673 28,070 23.8% 31,446 12.0%

5,746 6,540 13.8% 6,693 2.3% 6,191 6,311 1.9% 6,591 4.4%

1,265 1,167 -7.7% 1,194 2.3% 2,482 2,663 7.3% 3,103 16.5%

10.7% 9.5% na 9.5% na 7.9% 7.2% na 7.5% na

2.38 2.40 0.8% 2.42 0.8% 2.68 2.69 0.4% 2.70 0.4%

35.1 36.3 3.4% 36.9 1.7% 38.9 40.5 4.1% 41.0 1.2%


Renter

Frederick CountySelected Housing and

Household Metrics

City of Winchester

Total Housing Units

Total Households

Owner

Average Household Size

Vacant Units

% Vacant

Median Householder Age

a. Vacant Housing by Type

RKG reviewed 2010 U.S. Census data and 2019 estimates, as offered by the American

Community Survey (ACS) to develop a comparison of the change in vacant housing by status

of vacancy for the City of Winchester and for Frederick County (Table 6), noting:

• While the total number of vacant housing units increased for the City of Winchester

and countywide, vacant housing units as a percent of all housing units declined in

Frederick County.

• “For rent” vacancies in the City of Winchester were dominant in 2010, but declined

substantially by 2019, at 729 units and 436 units, respectively. The City of Winchester

realized a significant decrease in the number of vacant units “for rent” although all

other types of vacancy increased sharply, particularly those classified as “rented, not

occupied” and those classified as “seasonal”. In 2010, “for rent” vacancies accounted

for 57.6% of the City’s vacant housing stock and this declined to 30.5% in 2019.

• Vacant units classified as “all other” were dominant in Frederick County for both

points in time, at 851 units and 1,263 units respectively. The number of “seasonal”

vacant units increased in Frederick County, also, while all other status categories

realized a decline. Vacant housing classified as “all other” accounted for 34.3% of the

countywide vacancies but increased to 47.5% by 2019.

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Table 6 – Comparative Vacant Housing by Status of Vacancy

2010 2019 % Δ 2010 2019 % Δ

Total Housing Units 11,872 11,919 0.4% 31,346 35,452 13.1%

1,265 1,429 13.0% 2,482 2,658 7.1%

10.7% 12.0% na 7.9% 7.5% na

Vacant Units by Type

729 436 -40.2% 504 345 -31.5%

32 131 309.4% 36 7 -80.6%

144 193 34.0% 516 231 -55.2%

23 39 69.6% 84 59 -29.8%

46 201 337.0% 491 753 53.4%

291 429 47.4% 851 1,263 48.4%

Source : U.S. Census, American Community Survey and RKG (2021)

Vacant Housing Distributions by

Type of Vacancy


Vacant Housing Units

Seasonal

All Other

% Vacant

For Rent

Rented, not Occupied

For Sale

Sold, not Occupied

2. Owner Housing Values

Median owner housing values in the City of Winchester are projected to increase by nearly

$38,650 over the 2020 -2025 study period for an increase of 15.8% (Table 7). While the projected

increase in median housing values in Frederick County is less robust, at 7.8%, it still represents

an approximate $21,000 increase. Despite these variances, the median housing values in the

City of Winchester, on average, lag those in Frederick County likely suggesting a somewhat

higher concentration of lower value housing which in turns impacts the median.7

Average housing values in the City of Winchester are projected to increase by 10.4 percent or

$31,630. This compares to a $26,755 increase in Frederick County, or 9.2%. Dissimilar to the

median housing values, the average housing values for the City of Winchester are marginally

greater when compared to Frederick County suggesting some concentration of higher value

housing (outliers) which would impact the average housing value recognizing that total

owner housing in the City of Winchester is much less when compared Frederick County.

Also, over the 2010 -2019 study period the average number of building permits for single

family residential in the City of Winchester averaged less than five percent of the permits in

Frederick County.8

7 A measure where one-half of the housing values fall below the median value and one-half exceed the median

total value. Note also Table 21 where the total sample of single-family residential properties for sale in the City of

Winchester is, on average, $31,940 less when compared to Frederick County. Also, recent singe family transactions

in the City are about $40,560 less when compared to Frederick County (Table 22). 8 As further discussed in Chapter 3 – Residential Market Analysis.

Page 64 of 157



Page 17

Table 7 – Comparative Owner Housing Values

2020 2025 % Δ 2020 2025 % Δ

City of Winchester 244,224$ 282,873$ 15.8% 304,068$ 335,701$ 10.4%

265,991$ 286,683$ 7.8% 289,595$ 316,349$ 9.2%

91.8% 98.7% na 105.0% 106.1% na


Average Value

Frederick County

City as a % of County

Owner Housing Values

Median Value


Owner housing units in the City of Winchester are projected to decline (by a total of 311 units)

for those valued at $299,999 or less and increase (by a total of 407 units) in values of $300,000

and above for the 2020 – 2025 study period (Figure 10). The greatest percent increase, at 32.3%,

is projected for housing valued at $500,000 or more.

Figure 10 – Owner Housing Value Distribution – City of Winchester

b. Frederick County

For Frederick County, over the 2020 -2025 period, the number of owner housing units valued

at less than $149,999 are projected to decline by 12.6% or by 563 units (Figure 11). The unit

count for all other valuations is projected to increase representing a total increase of nearly

3,940 units, led by a 20.4% increase (2,535 units) for those valued from $300,000 to $499,999.

This projected increase is more than twelve times greater than the projected 2020 unit increase

for the City of Winchester.

For the City of Winchester and for Frederick County, in 2025, the number of owner units

valued at less than $300,000 represent a similar 53% and 54.6% of all owner units, respectively.

The single greatest concentration of owner housing units are valued at $150,000 to $299,999

at 39.1% for the City of Winchester and at 42.1% for Frederick County. respectively. By 2025

those units valued at $500,000 or more are projected to account for 17.8% of the City’s owner

housing units and nine percent of the countywide owner housing units.

83

2

1,9

80

1,1

74

63

5

65

5

1,8

46

1,3

76

84

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

less than $149,999 $150,000 to$299,999

$300,000 to$499,999

$500,000 or more

2020

2025

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Page 18

Figure 11 – Owner Housing Value Distribution – Frederick County

3. Renter Housing Rents

RKG reviewed information provided by the American Community Survey regarding the

number of renter households and contract rent9 for the City of Winchester and Frederick

County (Table 8) over the 2010 to 2019 period, noting:

• City of Winchester – Over the full study period, the number of total renter units

increased by 15.8%, with an 18.4% increase in those with cash rent and a decline of

27.8% in those with no cash rent. As a result, those with no cash rent declined from a

5.5% representation in 2010 to 3.5% in 2019. There was a decline in the number of

renter units (808 units) with rents of less than $749 and marked increase in those with

rents of $1,000 or more (1,426 units), which is further indicated by the approximate

$430 increase in median contract rent (a change of 94%).

• Frederick County – Over the same period, the number of total renter units increased

by 16.3% (marginally greater than the City) with the number of units with cash rent

increasing (17.8%) and those with no cash increasing by 3.7% – in sharp contrast to the

decline experienced in the City of Winchester. There was also an increase countywide

among the number of units (639 units) with rents of $749 or less, also in sharp contrast

to the City of Winchester. Further dissimilar to the City of Winchester, there was a

decline (388 units) for those with rents of $1,000 or more despite an increase in those

with rents of $1,500 or more. For Frederick County the median contract rent increased

by 79.6%, or $403, both less than and similar observations for the City of Winchester.

As measured by actual median contract rent, renter housing is more affordable in the City

compared to countywide, although the gap is closing as median contract rents in the City

were 89.7% of those countywide in 2010 and increased to nearly 97% by 2019. Despite this,

9 Contract rent is the monthly rent agreed to (for example, the “rent” amount one finds advertised), while gross

rent is the contract rent plus the estimated monthly costs of utilities (electricity, gas, water, sewer and fuels)

whether they are paid for by the owner or the renter.

4,4

72

12

,75

1

8,9

20

1,9

27

3,9

09

13

,24

9

11

,45

5

2,8

33

1,500

3,500

5,500

7,500

9,500

11,500

13,500

less than$149,999

$150,000 to$299,999

$300,000 to$499,999

$500,000 or more

2020

2025

Page 66 of 157



Page 19

options for renter housing at less than $1,000 per month declined in the City of Winchester by

549 units while increasing countywide by 1,355 units. This appears to run counter to he

previously identified (Figure 7) of greater median and average household incomes in

Frederick County compared to the City of Winchester.

Table 8 – Comparisons of Contract Rent

2010 2019 % Δ 2010 2019 % Δ

Total Renter Units 5,048 5,848 15.8% 6,063 7,053 16.3%

610 427 -30.0% 204 670 228.4%

1,954 1,329 -32.0% 768 941 22.5%

1,605 1,864 16.1% 1,626 2,342 44.0%

544 1,780 227.2% 2,014 1,559 -22.6%

55 245 345.5% 823 890 8.1%

Total Units with Cash Rent 4,768 5,645 18.4% 5,435 6,402 17.8%

454$ 881$ 94.1% 506$ 909$ 79.6%

Total Units no Cash Rent 280 203 -27.5% 628 651 3.7%

Source : American Community Survey and RKG (2021)


less than $500

$500 to $749

$750 to $999

$1,000 to $1,499

Median Contract Rent

$1,500 or more

Renter Occupied Units -

Monthly Contact Rent

4. Occupied Housing by Year Built

Approximately one percent of the occupied housing in the City of Winchester, in total and by

tenure, has been built since 2014, as compared to approximately eight percent, in total and by

tenure, for Frederick County (Table 9).

Approximately 13% of all occupied housing in the City of Winchester was built between 2000

and 2013, compared with nearly 22% for Frederick County. There is some parity for owner-

occupied housing in this study period with 19% for the City of Winchester and 23% for

Frederick County. While the metric for renter-occupied housing, in the same period, is eight

percent for the City of Winchester and 19% for Frederick County.

For the City of Winchester approximately 80% of the owner-occupied housing was built in

1980 or earlier, and approximately 61% of the renter-occupied housing. This compares against

69% and 73.6%, respectively, for Frederick County.10

In summary, the occupied housing stock in the City of Winchester is much older when

compared to Frederick County, particularly for renter-occupied housing.

10 A This is further reflected by the residential building permit activity, for each, over the 2010 - 2019 period as

presented elsewhere in this report.

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Page 20

Table 9 – Comparison of Households by Year Built

All Owner Renter All Owner Renter

Total Households 10,490 4,642 5,848 32,010 24,724 7,286

113 52 61 2,548 2,003 545

1,366 886 480 7,006 5,624 1,382

4,753 1,960 2,793 18,937 14,529 4,408

4,258 1,744 2,514 3,519 2,568 951


Occupied Housing Units by Year

Structure Built

City of Winchester - 2019 Frederick County - 2019

2014 or later

2000 to 2013

1980 to 1999

1979 or earlier

5. Housing Units by Units in Structure

As reported by ACS (Table 10) approximately 67% of City’s housing was one-unit (attached

and detached) for the 2010 – 2014 rolling average and 71% for the 2015 – 2019 rolling average.

This compares to approximately 85.5% in Frederick County for both study periods. With

respect to structures with multiple units, these accounted for 33% and 29% in the City of

Winchester, respectively for each study period. For Frederick County, the similar measures

were approximately 14.5 % for each study period.

As noted previously (Table 5) approximately 58% of the occupied housing in the City of

Winchester was renter-occupied in 2020, suggesting, based on the number of units in

structure, that much of the single family housing (one unit, attached and detached) in the City

of Winchester is renter-occupied as compared to owner-occupied. This disparity does not

present itself for Frederick County where renter-occupied units, in 2020, accounted for 18.4%

of the occupied housing, only marginally greater than the estimated 14.5% (2015 – 2019) of

multiple unit housing. In other words, some portion of the renter-occupied housing in the

City of Winchester is being met by typically owner occupied housing as opposed to more

traditional multi-family housing such as apartment complexes.

Table 10 - Comparison of Housing Units by Units in Structure

2010 - 14 2015 - 19 % Δ 2010 - 14 2015 - 19 % Δ

Total Housing Units 11,913 11,919 0.1% 31,877 34,161 7.2%

6,528 6,746 3.3% 24,418 25,587 4.8%

1,465 1,692 15.5% 2,805 3,655 30.3%

548 262 -52.1% 191 239 25.0%

810 942 16.2% 223 273 22.5%

846 739 -12.6% 446 410 -8.1%

1,656 1,478 -10.7% 1,116 1,947 74.5%

60 60 0.0% 2,678 2,050 -23.5%


Housing Units by Units per

Structure


1-unit, detached

5 to 9-units

10-units or more

Mobile Home and Other

1-unit, attached

2-units

3 to 4-units

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Page 21

C. HOUSEHOLDS

This section presents several metrics with respect to household (occupied housing)

composition and trends for the City of Winchester and Frederick County.

1. Householder Income Distributions

While the number of householders earning less than $75,000 are projected to decline in the

City of Winchester over the 2020 -2025 period (Table 11), they are projected to continue to

represent more than 60% of the total households in the City of Winchester. In contrast, despite

a projected increase in these households in Frederick County their representation of all

households declines from 44.3% (2020) to 41.5% (2025). Both the City of Winchester and

Frederick County are projected to realize an increase in the number of householders earning

more than $150,000, at 15.5% and 21.5%, respectively. Nonetheless, by 2025 such households

account for less than 14% of all City households and more than 23% of those in the County.

Table 11 – Householder Income Distributions

2020 2025 % Δ 2020 2025 % Δ

Total Households 11,161 11,410 2.2% 34,381 38,037 10.6%

3,394 3,301 -2.7% 5,660 5,797 2.4%

3,775 3,734 -1.1% 9,567 9,999 4.5%

2,620 2,791 6.5% 11,874 13,394 12.8%

1,372 1,584 15.5% 7,280 8,847 21.5%


Households by Householder Income

$150,000 or more

less than $35,000


$35,000 to $74,999

$75,000 to $149,999


Over the 2020 – 2025 study period the total projected growth in households for the City of

Winchester is 249, although unevenly distributed by age of householder and income of

householder (Table 12).

• Households with the age of householder at 25 to 34 years, 45 to 54 years and 55 to 64

years are all projected to decline, for a combined loss of 210 households.

• The greatest projected increase, at 190 households, is for those with a householder

aged 35 to 44 years, with much of the remaining household growth among those aged

65 and older.

• Although there are variances among the age of householder cohorts, all households

with householder incomes of less than $100,000 are projected to decline.

• The projected growth among households earning $75,000 or more is universal across

all age of householder cohorts.

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Page 22

• The change in median household income for householders less than 25 years of age

falls below the projected City average for all households.

• The projected change in average household income falls below the City’s average for

those in the under 25 cohort, the 25 to 34 cohort and for those aged 75 or older.

Table 12 – Change in Households by Income and Age of Householder – City of Winchester

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total

29 (72) 190 (42) (96) 125 115 249

1 (28) 17 (14) (45) 9 18 (42)

(2) (47) 24 (29) (42) 3 12 (81)

14 (25) 13 (17) (27) 19 12 (11)

7 (2) 33 - (7) 16 13 60

9 30 103 18 25 78 60 323

1,702$ 3,235$ 3,810$ 4,284$ 3,475$ 2,607$ 1,773$ 2,625$

3,779$ 6,624$ 7,855$ 8,640$ 10,623$ 9,837$ 6,966$ 7,723$


Median Household Income

Average Household Income

Projected Change in

Households (2020 - 2025) by

Income and Age of

Householder

Total Households

Householder Income

$75,000 to $99,999

less than $25,000

$25,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

$100,000 or more

Age of Householder

b. Frederick County

The projected growth for households throughout Frederick County is 3,656 with a decline

projected among householders aged 45 to 54 years, growth is projected for all other age of

householder cohorts (Table 13). Dissimilar to the City, household growth is projected across

all householder income levels, but is heavily weighted by those with householders 65 and

over, notable at household income levels of less than $75,000.

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Page 23

Table 13 – Change in Households by Income and Age of Householder –Frederick County

<25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total

34 402 728 (157) 295 1,005 1,349 3,656

3 (9) (8) (58) (55) 38 184 95

(2) (57) - (113) (70) 87 344 189

9 - 31 (98) (43) 158 228 285

8 87 137 (38) 42 140 173 549

16 381 568 150 421 582 420 2,538

1,377$ 6,151$ 2,972$ 6,332$ 6,275$ 6,961$ 4,270$ 4,457$

4,567$ 10,420$ 10,263$ 12,886$ 11,253$ 10,499$ 7,526$ 9,187$


Median Household Income

Average Household Income

Projected Change in Households

(2020 - 2025) by Income and

Age of Householder

Age of Householder

Total Households

Householder Income

less than $25,000

$25,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

$75,000 to $99,999

$100,000 or more

2. Households by Household Size

In 2010, households in the City were typically one person households (34.3%) or two person

households (31.4%), followed by four or person per household (20.5%) and then three person

households at 13.8%. This household composition generally held constant in 2019, with two

persons households declining to a 30.4% representation and three person households

increasing to a 15.1% representation (Figure 12).

For Frederick County two person households accounted for 35.3% of all households in 2010,

followed by households of four or more persons (28%) and then single person households

(20.5%) and finally three person households (17.8%). In 2019, these representations held

constant noting that two person households increased to a 40.4% representation and

households of four or more persons declined to a 22% representation (Figure 13).

Comparatively, one- and two-person households in the City of Winchester accounted for

approximately 65% of all City households, in 2010 and in 2019. In Frederick County these

households increased from an approximate representation of 56% (2010) to 60% (2019).

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Page 24

Figure 12 - Household Distribution by Persons per Household (all Households)

Figure 13 - Household Distribution by Persons per Household (all Households)


Table 14 presents measures of persons per household, in total, but also by tenure for the City

of Winchester. In 2010, owner households were predominantly two person (39.6%) and one

person households (26.7%) and generally held steady in 2019 although declining marginally

to a 24.6% representation for one person households. The general distribution of persons per

household, for renter households, in the City, was relatively unchanged (in terms of percent

of all renter households) over the 2010 – 2019 period, led in both periods by single person

households, two person households, four or more persons per household and finally three

person households.

In 2010 and in 2019, for the City of Winchester, one and two person households predominated

for both owners and renters at approximately 65% (±) of all households, respectively by

tenure.

3,6

38

3,3

30

1,4

68

2,1

71

3,5

93

3,1

94

1,5

81

2,1

22

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

4,000

One person Two persons Three persons Four + persons

2010 2019

5,9

27

10

,17

9

5,1

27

8,0

81

6,3

94

12

,93

7

5,6

31

7,0

48

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

One person Two persons Three persons Four + persons

2010 2019

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Page 25

Table 14 - Household Distribution by Persons per Household (by Tenure)



3,638 1,299 2,339 3,593 1,142 2,451

3,330 1,923 1,407 3,194 1,858 1,336

1,468 685 783 1,581 810 771

2,171 954 1,217 2,122 832 1,290


Household Size by Number of

Persons per Household

City of Winchester - 2010 City of Winchester - 2019

Four + persons

One person

Two persons

Three persons

b. Frederick County

Table 15 presents measures of persons per household, in total, but also by tenure for Frederick

County. In 2010 and in 2019 owner households were predominantly two person households,

then households of four or more persons. Although the distribution of single person and three

person households changed somewhat, they represented a combined 35% (±) of all owner

households in both periods.

Renter households in Frederick County were led by households of four or more person in

2010 (34.5%) but declined to 20% by 2019. Single person households increased from 26.7%

(2010) to 29.2% (2019). Two person households increased from 27.8% (2010) to 33% (2019)

where they represented the dominant percentage of renter households.

Table 15 - Household Distribution by Persons per Household (by Tenure)



5,927 4,276 1,651 6,394 4,269 2,125

10,179 8,455 1,724 12,937 10,532 2,405

5,127 3,997 1,130 5,631 4,332 1,299

8,081 5,945 2,136 7,048 5,591 1,457


Household Size by Number of

Persons per Household

Frederick County - 2010 Frederick County - 2019

One person

Two persons

Three persons

Four + persons

In summary, although there were some variations in persons per household between 2010

and 2019, for the City of Winchester and countywide, most households were single person

and two person households.

3. Households by Composition

Table 16 presents baseline household metrics for the City of Winchester and Frederick County

as reported by American Community Survey for 2019. While the average household size for

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Page 26

Frederick County, at 2.70 persons, is approximately 5.5% greater than for the City of

Winchester (2.56 persons). The average family size countywide (3.11 persons) is

approximately 6.5% less when compared with the City of Winchester (3.31 persons). In short,

smaller average household size in the City of Winchester but larger average family size

compared to Frederick County, possibly suggesting demand for smaller (unit SF) renter

housing in the City of Winchester but larger owner housing.

Table 16 – Baseline Household Metrics (ACS 2019)

Count as % Count as %

Total Households 10,490 na 31,503 na

2.56 na 2.70 na

3.31 na 3.11 na


Frederick CountyCity of Winchester

Average Family Size

Average Household Size

Household Composition

Metrics (ACS 2019)

Frederick County households are primarily married couple households, at nearly 60% of all

households as compared with a 37.6% representation in the City of Winchester (Figure 14).

As a result, all other household types in the City of Winchester account for a greater

percentage of all households when contrasted Frederick County.

Approximately 25.5 percent of City Households (2,661 households) are those with children

under 18 years of age, as compared with 28.6% (9,018 households) for all households in

Frederick County (Figure 15). The next greatest concentration of households with children

present, for the City of Winchester and countywide, is among female headed households,

followed by cohabitating households and then male headed households.

Figure 14 – Household Composition by Type of Household

37.6%

10.9%

19.3%

32.3%

59.4%

5.4%

13.9%

21.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Married Couple CohabitatingCouple

Male Householder FemaleHouseholder

City of Winchester

Frederick County

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Page 27

Figure 15 – Presence of Own Children (<18 years) by Type of Household

4. Households Size by Household Type

The American Community Survey11 developed estimates of persons per household, for family

and non-family households for the City of Winchester and for Frederick County (Table 17).

The number of family households in the City of Winchester (6,126 households) represented

58% of all households as compared with 74.5% countywide (23,069 households). Conversely,

non-family households represented 42% and 25.5%, respectively for the City and Frederick

County.

Of the family households, a marginally higher percentage at nearly 57.5%, in the City of

Winchester (compared to 54% countywide) were of three or more persons, which may

explain, in part, the previously noted greater average family size in the City of Winchester

compared against Frederick County. The percent distribution of persons per household for

the City of Winchester and countywide are reasonably similar, although representing less of

all households countywide.

The greater concentration of non-family households in the City of Winchester, predominantly

one and two persons, likely speaks to the presence of, and continued demand for, renter

housing options throughout the City of Winchester.

11 Reflecting a rolling average for the 2014 – 2018 study period.

1,478

442 189 552

6,844

583 317

1,274

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Married Couple CohabitatingCouple

Male Householder FemaleHouseholder

City of Winchester

Frederick County

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Page 28

Table 17 – Persons per Household, by Household Type

Count as % Count as %

Total Family Households 6,126 58.0% 23,069 74.5%

2,607 42.6% 10,584 45.9%

1,382 22.6% 5,637 24.4%

1,340 21.9% 3,809 16.5%

797 13.0% 3,039 13.2%

4,428 42.0% 7,904 25.5%

3,611 81.5% 6,478 82.0%

655 14.8% 1,224 15.5%

122 2.8% 144 1.8%

26 0.6% 41 0.5%

14 0.3% 17 0.2%


Households by Persons per

Household (ACS 2014-18)


3 Persons

4 Persons

5+ Persons

2 Persons

3 Persons

4 Persons

5+ Persons

1 Person

2 Persons

Non-Family Households

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Page 29

D. ECONOMICS

1. Labor Force and Unemployment

RKG reviewed monthly trends in the civilian labor force12 and unemployment statistics for

the City of Winchester and Frederick County over the January 2018 through November 2020

(latest available) study period.

• City of Winchester – The average monthly civilian labor force in the City of

Winchester was 14,651 persons over this period and the average monthly

unemployment rate was approximately 3.8% (Figure 16). While the civilian labor force

varied from month to month over the January 2018 to January 2020 period, the general

trendline indicated growth in the civilian labor force. Since that time and through

November of 2020 the general trendline has been downward. From January of 2018

through March of 2020 the unemployment rate was below four percent (typically

considered as full employment), but then spiked at 11.2% (April 2020) likely reflecting

impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, the average monthly unemployment

has declined but remained above the four percent benchmark until November 2020

(3.9%). Since April of 2020, the unemployment rate has declined but so too has the

civilian labor force.

• Frederick County - The average monthly civilian labor force in Frederick County was

47,567 persons over this period and the average monthly unemployment rate was

approximately 3.2%, slightly less than that for the City of Winchester (Figure 17).

Similar to the City, despite month-to-month variations in the civilian labor force, the

trendline generally indicated growth (January 2018 through February of 2020). Since

that time, the trendline has dropped precipitously. Also like the City of Winchester,

unemployment varied but generally held below four percent, spiking at 9.8% in April

of 2020 and declining thereafter to 3.9% in November of 2020. Finally, like the City of

Winchester unemployment has declined since April 2020 but so too has the civilian

labor force.

For both the City of Winchester and Frederick County the monthly unemployment rate has

generally declined since the initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy in

April of 2020. While this reflects a decline in unemployment, statistically, it may also be, in

part, a function of a loss in the civilian labor force – essentially fewer persons may be

unemployed but fewer persons also comprise the civilian labor force.

12 Federal Reserve Economic Data.

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Page 30

Figure 16 – Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Trends – City of Winchester

Figure 17 – Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Trends – Frederick County

2. Employment by Industry Sector

Table 18 presents projected employment change (2021 – 2031) by industry sector for the City

of Winchester and Frederick County. Overall projected change for the City of Winchester is

393 positions (a two percent change) and for Frederick County 4,146 positions (a 12% change).

The projected change in total employment countywide is more than ten times that projected

for the City of Winchester.

Several industry sectors in the City of Winchester are projected to realize a decline in

employment, notably including construction, manufacturing, retail services and

administrative services. Nominal losses in employment are projected for Frederick County

across four industry sectors.

Industry sectors in the City of Winchester projected to realize substantial employment gains

include health care, management, education, government, and professional services. Notable

2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%11.0%12.0%

13,00013,25013,50013,75014,00014,25014,50014,75015,00015,25015,50015,75016,000

Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate

1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%10.0%

45,00045,50046,00046,50047,00047,50048,00048,50049,00049,50050,000

Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate

Page 78 of 157



Page 31

projected employment growth for Frederick County is in the transportation/warehousing,

manufacturing, government, retail trade and administrative sectors.

In all industry sectors where the City of Winchester is projected to realize a decline in

employment Frederick County is projected to realize an increase in employment.

Table 18 – Comparative Projected Employment Change by Industry Sector 2021 - 2031

2021 2031 # Δ 2021 2031 # Δ

Agriculture and other <10 <10 Insf. Data 272 282 10

Mining and other 0 0 - 61 40 (22)

Utilities 0 0 - 92 91 (1)

Construction 290 241 (49) 2,298 2,335 38

Manufacturing 1,228 730 (498) 6,203 6,852 649

Wholesale Trade 337 353 16 1,199 1,320 121

Retail Trade 3,893 3,511 (382) 3,488 3,835 347

Transportation / Whsing 246 200 (46) 4,057 5,074 1,018

Information 93 103 10 232 223 (9)

Finance and Insurance 645 630 (15) 2,333 2,819 486

Real Estate 272 195 (77) 257 309 53

Professional Services 984 1,126 142 836 847 11

Management 1,263 1,675 412 373 355 (17)

Administrative 863 644 (219) 1,675 2,007 332

Education 1,194 1,410 216 143 170 27

Health Care 7,252 7,876 624 1,483 1,538 54

Arts, Ent. And Recreation 273 367 94 239 245 6

Accommodation / Food 2,418 2,361 (57) 2,178 2,432 254

Other Services 612 652 40 779 903 124

Government 2,822 2,971 149 5,877 6,514 637

Unclassified Industry 56 93 37 64 94 30

All Sectors 24,745 25,138 393 34,139 38,286 4,146


Projected Employment

by Industry Sector


3. Establishments by Industry Sector

Table 19 reflects the number of establishments (2020) for the City of Winchester and for

Frederick County, with a total of 1,499 in the City and 1,986 countywide, noting that Frederick

County exceeds the City of Winchester by 437 establishments or about 1.3 times as many. This

variation is not universal across all industry sectors as the number of establishments in the

City of Winchester exceed those for Frederick County in retail trade, finance, education,

health care and government sectors – across these sectors there are 793 establishments in the

City of Winchester as compared to 676 establishments in Frederick County.

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Page 32

Table 19 – Comparative Establishments by Industry Sector (2020)

City County City as a %

Agriculture and other 1 22 4.7%

Mining and other 0 2 0.0%

Utilities 0 3 0.0%

Construction 48 229 20.8%

Manufacturing 29 103 28.3%

Wholesale Trade 38 94 40.4%

Retail Trade 247 194 127.5%

Transportation / Whsing 18 91 19.2%

Information 12 14 89.1%

Finance and Insurance 91 70 129.7%

Real Estate 57 63 89.7%

Professional Services 142 161 88.4%

Management 7 9 78.4%

Administrative 59 114 51.8%

Education 22 16 141.3%

Health Care 375 347 108.3%

Arts, Ent. And Recreation 17 19 85.7%

Accommodation / Food 125 133 94.4%

Other Services 128 172 74.7%

Government 58 50 115.5%

Unclassified Industry 26 33 79.4%

All Sectors 1,499 1,936 77.4%


Industry Sectors

Number of Establishments (2020)

4. Average Wages by Industry Sector

Across all industry sectors the estimated average annual wage (2020) for the City of

Winchester was $63,231 or approximately six percent greater than the average annual wage

of $59,920 in Frederick County (Figure 18). Industry sectors where the average annual wage

in the City of Winchester exceeded that countywide by 120% or more include the finance,

management, education, health care, government, and unclassified sectors. In most sectors

where the City’s average annual wage fell below that of Frederick County the typical

representation was ± 90%.

With respect to average annual wages and potential housing affordability issues, most

industry sectors in the City with wages of ± $50,000 are projected to realize a decline in

employment (2021 – 2031) except for other services, arts / entertainment, and unclassified

sectors. The picture is somewhat different for Frederick County as all industry sectors with

wages of ± $50,000 are projected to experience an increase in employment.

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Page 33

This could possibly have implications for Frederick County seeking owner housing in the

City of Winchester as the sample of single-family properties for sale, and those recently sold,

in the City is less than for Frederick County (Table 22). However, the reverse may be true for

renter housing as the sample of available apartments (Table 24) in both locales indicates a

lesser monthly rent, on average, countywide as contrasted to the City of Winchester.

Furthermore, despite some projected job losses across the City of Winchester by 2031,

approximately 31% of the City employment at that time is among industry sectors with wages

less than ± $50,000 including approximately 3,500 employed in retail trade (wage of $35,380)

and another approximate 2,360 employed in the accommodations and food services sector

(wage of $21,802).

Figure 18 – Comparative Average Annual Wages by Industry Sector (2020)

5. Employment by Occupation

Table 20 presents the projected change in employment, by occupation, for the City of

Winchester and for Frederick County, along with the 2020 average hourly wage. Several

occupations in the City of Winchester are projected to experience a decline in employment

while none are projected for Frederick County. Like annual wages by industry sector, many

of the occupation sectors, for the City of Winchester and countywide, have average hourly

wages that equate to less than an estimated ± $50,000 in total annual wages – as highlighted.

RKG estimates that a minimum hourly wage of $24.04 would result in an annual wage of

$50,000.13 The average hourly wage for all occupations in Frederick County falls below this

threshold while the average hourly wage for all occupations in the City of Winchester

marginally exceeds this threshold – both speaking to possible housing affordability issues.

13 This reflects the assumption of an eight-hour workday, five days a week for 52 weeks.

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000 City of Winchester Frederick County

Page 81 of 157



Page 34

Table 20 – Change in Employment (2021 -2031) by Occupation with Hourly Wage

Management Occupations 127 $56.09 208 $54.46

Business and Financial Operations Occupations 150 $36.53 352 $34.84

Computer and Mathematical Occupations 88 $43.36 111 $41.67

Architecture and Engineering Occupations (13) $40.24 52 $38.74

Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 8 $36.49 38 $30.93

Community and Social Service Occupations 48 $23.58 36 $25.72

Legal Occupations 34 $30.87 9 $33.39

Educational Instruction and Library Occupations 108 $34.84 175 $28.87

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 77 $23.34 24 $22.95

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 167 $42.91 112 $43.10

Healthcare Support Occupations 381 $13.82 12 $13.12

Protective Service Occupations 32 $21.19 58 $21.28

Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (32) $11.61 298 $11.18

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations (17) $13.44 77 $14.16

Personal Care and Service Occupations 57 $13.86 38 $14.48

Sales and Related Occupations (230) $16.02 371 $18.89

Office and Administrative Support Occupations (64) $18.28 359 $18.08

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations Insf. Data Insf. Data 9 $13.87

Construction and Extraction Occupations (13) $21.79 55 $22.08

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations (3) $22.72 283 $22.96

Production Occupations (373) $18.74 398 $18.94

Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (136) $15.42 1,072 $16.86

Military-only occupations 0 $0.00 0 $0.00

Unclassified Occupation 0 $0.00 0 $0.00

Total 393 $24.37 4,146 $22.18


Employment Change bt Selected

Occupations

City of Winchester

Δ in

Employment

Avg Hourly

$

Frederick County

Δ in

Employment

Avg Hourly

$

< $50,000

6. Industry Clusters

RKG also reviewed an analysis of industry clusters within the City of Winchester and

Frederick County, as developed by EMSI. This analysis develops a composite and weighted

ranking of the “relative strength” of an industry cluster based on such metrics as earnings,

overall growth, regional competitiveness, a degree of specialization whereby the

“performance” of the cluster exceeds national averages, and a measure of the cluster’s

contribution to the gross regional product (GRP). In short, the higher the cluster ranking the

stronger the cluster to the local economy.

The weak and strong clusters for the City of Winchester and Frederick County are presented

next, noting that all clusters may not be present in either location. For example, per the EMSI

analysis, there is no Production Technology and Heavy Machinery or Biopharmaceuticals

clusters in the City of Winchester. The former, along with the Communications Equipment

and Services cluster are examples of clusters that are not present in Frederick County.

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Page 35

There are some commonalities between the City of Winchester and Frederick County as both

exhibit weak clusters in Performing Arts, Hospitality/Tourism and Local Food/Beverage

Services. On the other hand, both exhibit strong clusters in Federal Government Services,

otherwise there is no duplication of strong clusters suggesting a diversification of strong

clusters between the two entities.


With a composite ranking of 82 (out of 100) the Business Services cluster ranks highest in the

City of Winchester. The average cluster ranking in the City of Winchester is 41 and those

clusters ranking 53 or higher are considered as top performers, while those with a ranking of

28 or less are weak performers, as highlighted in Figure 19. Figure 19 – Weak and Strong Industry Clusters – City of Winchester, VA

b. Frederick County

With a composite ranking of 91 (out of 100) the Food Processing and Manufacturing cluster

ranks highest in the County. The average cluster ranking in the County is 36 and those clusters

ranking 48 or higher are considered as top performers, while those with a ranking of 24 or less

are weak performers, as highlighted in Figure 20.

827877

7266

2828

23222120

Business SvcsLocal Health Svcs

Federal Govt. SvcsEducation and Knowledge Creation

Local Govt. SvcsLocal Education and Training

Performing ArtsLocal Hospitality Businesses

Local Commercial SvcsHospitality/Tourism

Local Food/Beverage Svcs

Composite Ranking

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Page 36

Figure 20 – Weak and Strong Industry Clusters – Frederick County, VA

The ability to meet the required housing alternatives, as preferred by the employees within

these clusters, may be critical in retaining and/or attracting such employment and economic

growth and diversification which they represent. At a minimum, RKG recommends that the

City of Winchester initiates a dialogue with representative business leaders in these clusters

to better understand these preferences and requirements as understood by respective

employers in these clusters.

9183

7865

6051

2424232322212121

16

Food Processing/ManufacturingLocal Financial Svcs

Distribution/Electronics CommerceFederal Govt. Svcs

PlasticsConstruction

Local Hshld Goods and SvcsAgricultural Svcs

Local Personal SvcsEducation/Knowledge Creation

Local Food/Beverage SvcsHospitality/Tourism

Local Entertainment/Media SvcsPerforming Arts

Local Community/Civic Svcs

Composite Ranking

Page 84 of 157



Page 37

7. Commuting Patterns

Approximately 48% of the City of

Winchester employment has a commute

of less than ten miles and 25% have a 10-

to 24-mile commute. Figure 21 presents a

thematic density map of travel times to

place of work.

According to the U. S. Census, for 2018,

there were 28,880 employees working in

the City of Winchester. This included

24,799 workers commuting into the City

of Winchester, 86%, and 4,081 City

residents, 14% (Figure 22).

Approximately 8,439 City residents (or 67% of the total) commute outside of the City of

Winchester for their place of employment.

Approximately 38% of the City of

Winchester employment resides

elsewhere throughout Frederick County,

as presented in the accompany table of

place of residence of City of Winchester

employment.

Commuting 2018

Top Locales Count

4,081 14.1%

10,963 38.0%

2,125 7.4%

1,503 5.2%

1,318 4.6%

1,050 3.6%

898 3.1%

569 2.0%

488 1.7%

457 1.6%

5,428 18.8%

Total 28,880 100.0%

Source : U. S. Census and RKG (2021)

Loudoun County, VA

Clarke County, VA

Fairfax County, VA

All Other

Jefferson County, WV

% of Total

Winchester City

Frederick County, VA

Berkeley County, WV

Shenandoah County, VA

Warren County, VA

Hampshire County, WV

Figure 22 – Worker Flow Metrics (2018)

Accompanying Measures for Figure 22

Figure 21 – Worker Commute Distance (2018)

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Page 38

3 RESIDENTIAL MARKET ANALYSIS

A. EXISTING CONDITIONS

1. Building Permit Trends

RKG reviewed statistics provided by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service (and from

the U.S. Census) to report on single family and multi-family14 residential building permit

activity for the City of Winchester and Frederick County over the 2010 – 2019 study period.


Over the 2010 to 2019 study period there were a total of 567 residential building permits in

the City of Winchester, with approximately 38% (213 permits) as single-family permits,

averaging 21 permits annually at an average value per permit of approximately $214,825.15

During this study period the number of single-family permits peaked at 37, in 2010 and again

in 2019 (Figure 23). During the intervening years, the number of permits troughed in 2012

(seven permits) and marginally recovered in 2013 (nine permits). In 2010 and in 2017 the

average value per permit exceeded $300,000, but otherwise exhibited a high degree of

volatility at average values per permit of approximately $265,000 or less.

Information current as of March 6, 2021 (refer to Table 25) as provided by the City of

Winchester, indicates that since 2011, 36 townhomes units have been delivered16 and are

occupied, all two-bedroom units.

Figure 23 – Single Family Building Permit Trends – City of Winchester

37

26

79

21

13

25

1820

37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

$0

$40,000

$80,000

$120,000

$160,000

$200,000

$240,000

$280,000

$320,000

$360,000

Average Value Number of Units Weldon Cooper and RKG

14 These include duplexes (1, 2 units), smaller properties of 3 to 4 units and larger complexes of five or more units. 15 Note, for 2018 data was suppressed other than total unit count. 16 These include Brooks Manor, Phase I (10 units) and Meadow Branch, Phase I (26 units).

Page 86 of 157



Page 39

The remainder (62%) of the residential building permits were for multi-family units, total 354

units or approximately 35 units annually. This was dominated by permits for complexes of

five or more units totaling 341 units or 68 annually (Figure 24). However, dissimilar to single

family permit activity, the number of permits (units) issued per year varied widely from no

permits being issued to a comparatively high number of permits in 2017 and in 2018. The

average value of these permits, on a per unit basis, was nearly $65,800.17 In 2016 there permits

issued for five units, averaging $194,000 per units and in 2017 permits were issued for 152

units (averaging $109,300 per unit. These 2016 and 2017 permits heavily influenced the overall

average value per unit which otherwise did not exceed $70,000 per unit.

Information current as of March 6, 2021 (refer to Table 25) as provided by the City of

Winchester, indicates that since 2011, 307 apartment units have been delivered18 and are

occupied, with one bedroom (26%), two bedroom (59%) and three bedroom (14%) as the

apartment mix.

In summary, the average annual residential building permit activity for the City of

Winchester (2010 – 2019) was dominated by permits for multi-family units (accounting for

62% of the total annual permit activity) at relatively lesser average values per unit (averaging

31% of the value for single family units) and was more sporadic in nature.

Figure 24 – Multi-Family Building Permit Trends – City of Winchester

6

51

2 5

152138

1

31

61

91

121

151

$0

$30,000

$60,000

$90,000

$120,000

$150,000

$180,000

$210,000


b. Frederick County

Over the 2010 – 2019 period a total of 5,296 residential building permits were issued in

Frederick County with 86 percent for single family units, averaging 454 permits annually. In

all years but for the 2010 – 2012 period, the average annual number of single-family permits

surpassed 300 (Figure 25). This peaked with 791 permits in 2016 and has declined thereafter

but still exceeding 500 permits annually. The average value per permit for single family

17 Ibid. 18 These include the Bottling Works (23 units), Lofts at Jubal Early Square (140 units) and Meadow Branch, Phase

I (144 units).

Page 87 of 157



Page 40

development was approximately $213,045 which is marginally less than the average value

($214,825) in the City of Winchester. In most years, the average permit value in Frederick

County was nearly $200,000 or more. The peak was in 2018 with an average value of $236,400

and the trough was in 2010 at an average value of $183,475. Nonetheless, the average permit

values for Frederick County were generally similar and clustered in a much tighter range

when compared to those for the City of Winchester.

Overall, the average annual permit activity for singe family units (2010 – 2019) for the City of

Winchester represented less than five percent of the similar activity for Frederick County,

although the average value exceeded Frederick County by a nominal one percent.

Figure 25 - Single Family Building Permit Trends – Frederick County

247 229266

357

436

532

791

562525

594

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

$175,000

$190,000

$205,000

$220,000

$235,000

$250,000


The remaining 14% of the building permit activity in Frederick County was for multi-family

properties (757 units) which, like the City, was dominated by permits for developments of

five or more units (572 units). Also similar to the City of Winchester, the multi-family permit

activity was sporadic over the study period (Figure 26) averaging 76 permits (units) annually

but more so in the 2018 – 2019 study period with previous peaks in 2011 (153 units) and in

2015 (137 units). The average permit (per unit) value was $149, 139 with a peak value of

$313,725 per unit in 2001 (153 units). While the average permit value for multi-family in

Frederick County was less than for single family (at 70%) the variance was much less when

compared to that for the City of Winchester.

Page 88 of 157



Page 41

Figure 26 – Multi-Family Building Permit Trends – Frederick County

0

153

0 0 0

137

0

99

191177

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

$0

$40,000

$80,000

$120,000

$160,000

$200,000

$240,000

$280,000

$320,000

$360,000


The City of Winchester also reached out to Frederick County to obtain permit activity (permit

values) over the 2016 through 2020 study period, for commercial permits and residential

permits (Figure 27). This information is reflective of all permit activity, and is not limited to

new construction, only. Nonetheless, it does offer an overview of total permit activity

countywide, noting:

• Commercial Permit Values – The value of commercial permits ranged from $29.03

million in 2017 to $48,25 million in 2019, averaging $35.76 million over the study

period.

• Residential Permit Values – The average value of residential permits was $19.54

million over the five years, ranging from $13.18 million in 2020 to $28.82 million in

2017. Over the study period, residential permit values averaged 35.3% of total permit

values, from a low of 29.1% in 2020 to a high of 49.8% in 2017.

• Total Permits – On average, 2,960 permits were issued annually in Frederick County,

however, it should be noted that sharp increase in permit activity for 2019 and for 2020

reflects the inclusion of permits issued for the City of Winchester Utilities expansion

tank project. In the prior years, 2016 through 2018, the number of permits issued for

commercial and residential activity averaged 1,812 annually.

Page 89 of 157



Page 42

Figure 27 – Trends in Building Permit Activity – Frederick County

2. Single Family Residential for Sale

RKG reviewed residential listings19, from Zillow, for single family housing for the City of

Winchester and Frederick County to develop a sample of 50 properties, each, currently for

sale as either from the existing inventory, recently under contract and as new construction

(Table 21).

Table 21 – Sample Inventory of Single Family Residential for Sale

Exiting 17 2,283 360,847$ 158$ 3 2.8

Under Contract 20 2,028 299,530$ 148$ 3 2.4

New Construction 13 2,113 432,470$ 205$ 3 2.6

All for Sale 50 2,137 354,942$ 166$ 3 2.6

Exiting 9 2,091 334,922$ 160$ 3 2.3

Under Contract 20 2,055 355,110$ 173$ 3 2.6

New Construction 21 2,429 439,414$ 181$ 3 2.6

All For Sale 50 2,218 386,884$ 174$ 3 2.5

Source : Zillow and RKG (2021)

Count

City of Winchester for Sale

Single Family Residential

$ / SF BR Baths

Frederick County for Sale

Single Family Residential

Avg SF Asking $

Count Avg SF Asking $

$ / SF BR Baths


Many listings (at 40%) were under contract with an average size of 2,028 SF with an average

price of $299,530 (or $148/SF). This is followed by for sale properties from the existing

19 Zillow listings current as of March 3, 2021.

$29,3

18,6

55

$29,0

28,2

83

$40,0

66,5

51

$48,2

53,5

07

$32,1

17,8

65

$35,7

56,9

72 $17,5

18,9

22

$28,8

24,1

10

$12,3

10,7

89

$25,8

73,6

04

$13,1

84,9

77

$19,5

42,4

80

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

$50,000,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average

Commercial Permit Value Residential Permit Value Total Permits

Page 90 of 157



Page 43

inventory of housing and then by new construction. The average size (SF) of properties under

contract is less than that for either the existing inventory or for new construction. Of note is

that new construction (average SF) is somewhat less than the existing inventory possibly

indicative of different residential preferences or trending average household sizes. The

average price of properties under contract is well below the existing inventory and the

inventory of new construction, which is the highest at $432,470 likely reflecting increased

construction costs, amenities and possibly land values.

b. Frederick County

In Frederick County the number of residential listings under contract and those which are

new construction are similar in count. However, the average unit size for new construction

(2,429 SF) well exceeds that for both the existing inventory and for those listings under

contract. Similarly, the average price for new construction listings, at $439,414 exceeds that

for the existing inventory (by approximately $104,500) and for listings under contract (by

approximately $84,300).

In summary, the average pricing for new construction in Frederick County is marginally

higher than that for the City of Winchester, in absolute dollars but much higher on a per SF

basis. The average price for existing units in the City of Winchester are higher in absolute

dollars but comparable on a per SF basis. New construction listings in the City of Winchester,

although priced comparably to Frederick County, are typically smaller unit, by slighter mor

than 300 SF on average.

3. Single Family Residential Transactions

RKG next reviewed Zillow for recent single-family transactions20 for the City of Winchester

and Frederick County, comparing these to the for-sale sample inventory (Table 22). For the

City of Winchester, while the sample of sold properties are relatively similar in size (SF) to

the sample of for sale properties, the average pricing differs markedly with units sold

accounting for 87% of the asking price of units for sale, a differential of approximately $45,300.

The for-sale pricing includes many properties which are new construction, and which may be

driving this differential, however, the differential may also suggest, to some extent, that

selling prices, on average, are being realized at values less than original asking prices. This

could also be indicative of affordability issues among homebuyers.

With respect to Frederick County, recently sold properties are about 110 SF, on average, larger

than for sale properties – a nominal difference. However, there is better parity (91%) between

selling price and asking price, a difference of approximately $36,700. Similar notations, as for

the City of Winchester, may explain this differential. Nonetheless, for Frederick County, the

for-sale pricing and the sold pricing exceeds the City of Winchester by nine percent and 13%,

respectively.

20 Zillow listings current as of March 4, 2021.

Page 91 of 157



Page 44

Table 22 – Recent (February 2021) Single Family Transactions and For Sale Comparisons

For Sale sample 50 2,137 354,942$ 166$ 3 2.5

Recently Sold sample 50 2,032 309,638$ 152$ 3 2.5

Sold : For Sale 100% 95% 87% 92% 100% 100%

Frederick County Single

Family Residential Count Avg SF Asking $ $ / SF BR Baths

For Sale sample 50 2,218 386,884$ 174$ 3 2.5

Recently Sold sample 50 2,328 350,227$ 150$ 3 2.7

Sold : For Sale 100% 105% 91% 86% 100% 108%

Source : Zillow and RKG (2021)

BR Baths

City of Winchester Single

Family Residential Count Avg SF Asking $ $ / SF

I

4. Rental Properties

RKG researched apartfinder.com and spoke with selected are property managers to develop

a sample of available apartment properties in the City of Winchester and in neighboring

communities.


A sample of eleven apartment properties was developed for the City of Winchester (Table 23)

representing a mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom units of varying average unit size (SF)

and asking monthly rent rates, noting the following:

• One Bedroom Units – the listed apartments varied in unit size from 320 SF to 1,287

SF, averaging 824 SF. Outside of the Lofts at Jubal Square all other units are less than

1,000 SF. Asking rents ranged from a monthly low of $860 to a high of $1,65021,

averaging $1,315 per month or approximately $1.60/SF/month. If the Brookfield

Corporate apartments are excluded the average unit size becomes 845 SF, the average

monthly rent declines to $1,267 or $1.50/SF/month.

• Two Bedroom Units – apartments range in size from 825 SF to 1,587 SF (an outlier

represented by the Lofts at Jubal Square)22 and average 1,078 SF (a 31 percent increase

over the sample of one-bedroom units). Monthly rents range from $979 to as much as

$1,800 (the Brookfield Corporate apartments) and average $1,402 (an increase of seven

percent over one-bedroom units), or approximately $1.30/SF/month. If the Brookfield

Corporate apartments are excluded the average unit size becomes 1,097 SF, the

average monthly rent declines to $1,369 or $1.25/SF/month.

21 These are represented by the Brookfield Corporate apartments which serve as short-term or extended stay units,

completely furnished, all paid utilities and with weekly cleaning services. 22 The Lofts at Jubal Square offer a more spacious and luxury apartment s with open floorplans, arched entries,

solariums, large windows, fireplaces, and in apartment laundry. En suite bathrooms are standard in most floor

plans and master bedroom suites feature large walk-in closets.

Page 92 of 157



Page 45

• Three Bedroom Units – all units in the three-bedroom sample are 1,000 SF or more

and average 1,251 SF (16 percent larger than the average two-bedroom unit). Monthly

rents range from a low of $1,00 to a high of $1,715 (the Lofts at Jubal Square) and

average $1,427 per month (a marginal two percent increase over two-bedroom units)

and average $1.14/SF/month.

Table 23 – Sample Listing of Apartments for Rent – City of Winchester

SF Rent Rent / SF SF Rent Rent / SF SF Rent Rent / SF

1,000 979$ 0.98$ 1,123 1,320$ 1.18$

825 1,475$ 1.79$

825 1,300$ 1.58$ 1,000 1,450$ 1.45$

1,050 1,500$ 1.43$

755 1,233$ 1.63$ 933 1,388$ 1.49$

320 860$ 2.69$ 960 995$ 1.04$ 1,000 1,100$ 1.10$

680 1,650$ 2.43$ 850 1,800$ 2.12$

1,360 1,400$ 1.03$

965 1,360$ 1.41$ 1,267 1,510$ 1.19$ 1,450 1,715$ 1.18$

1,287 1,460$ 1.13$ 1,584 1,585$ 1.00$

Autumn Wind /1 968 1,064$ 1.10$ 1,128 1,220$ 1.08$

Stuart Hill 845 1,298$ 1.54$ 1,099 1,485$ 1.35$

915 1,358$ 1.48$ 1,215 1,510$ 1.24$ 1,296 1,582$ 1.22$

Hiatt Run 1,258 1,490$ 1.18$ 1,400 1,650$ 1.18$

Averages 824 1,315$ 1.60$ 1,078 1,402$ 1.30$ 1,251 1,427$ 1.14$

Source : apartmentfinder.com, Property Managers and RKG (2021)

/1 These are tax credit properties with income restrictions.

Madison Village

Peppertree Lane

Fay Street Community

Brookfield Corporate

Contrail Park

The Lofts at Jubal Square

Noah at Pine Plaza

Sample of Apartment

Listings - City of

Winchester

1 BR Units 2 BR Units 3 BR Units

Preston Place /1

Two of the properties in the City of Winchester are tax credit properties and as such have

income restrictions (which may apply to some or all residents) indexed to the number of

residents per unit and with annual incomes not to exceed those as noted in Figure 28. For each

of the properties the income restrictions increase by 14%, 12%, 11%, 8% and 7% with each

additional resident per unit.

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Figure 28 – Tax Credit Properties – Income Restrictions by Household Size

b. Surrounding Communities

RKG also developed a sample of apartment listings in surrounding communities23 (Table 24)

noting:

• One Bedroom Units – the listed apartments varied in unit size from 707 SF to 1,024 SF

(an outlier) and averaged 830 SF per unit. Except for the Lee Trace outlier24, all units

were less than 1,000 SF. The average rent is $1,082 per month or approximately

$1.30/SF/month. The average one-bedroom SF from the City of Winchester sample is

comparable to the surrounding communities’ sample; however, the average rent is

less (with and without the Brookfield Corporation outlier from the City of Winchester

sample).

• Two Bedroom Units – apartments range in size from 775 SF to 1,448 SF and average

1,069 SF per unit marginally smaller than the City of Winchester sample. Most unit

exceed 1,000 SF. The average monthly rents range from $790 to $1,410 with most

exceeding $1,000 and averaging $1,158 or approximately $1.08/SF/month. The average

rent for a two bedroom in these communities is less when compared to the City of

Winchester.

• Three Bedroom Units – the sampling identified two complexes offering three-

bedroom units, averaging 1,210 SF with an average monthly rent of $1,240 or

$1.02/SF/month. Although a limited sample, the average unit size is comparable to the

City of Winchester sample while the average monthly rent is less.

23 These included Stephens City and Martinsburg. 24 This is The Berkeley floor plan for a one-bedroom which includes two closets, a walk-in closet and a den,

differentiating it from other one-bedroom units.

$3

3,3

60

$3

8,1

00

$4

2,8

40

$4

7,5

80

$5

1,4

20

$5

5,2

00

$3

2,5

20

$3

7,1

40

$4

1,7

60

$4

6,3

80

$5

0,1

00

$5

3,8

20

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

1 2 3 4 5 6Preston Place Autumn Wind

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Table 24 - Sample Listing of Apartments for Rent – Surrounding Communities

SF Rent Rent / SF SF Rent Rent / SF SF Rent Rent / SF

1,181 1,350$ 1.14$

1,082 1,250$ 1.16$

960 1,100$ 1.15$

707 881$ 1.25$ 953 1,170$ 1.23$

821 924$ 1.13$ 953 1,016$ 1.07$

707 976$ 1.38$ 1,108 1,081$ 0.98$

1,108 1,106$ 1.00$

775 790$ 1.02$

860 850$ 0.99$ 1,096 1,000$ 0.91$

Lee Trace 890 1,334$ 1.50$ 1,089 1,399$ 1.28$ 1,324 1,480$ 1.12$

1,024 1,297$ 1.27$ 1,224 1,368$ 1.12$

Linden at Martinsburg 1,448 1,410$ 0.97$

1,150 1,163$ 1.01$

Averages 830 1,082$ 1.30$ 1,069 1,158$ 1.08$ 1,210 1,240$ 1.02$

Source : apartmentfinder.com, Property Managers and RKG (2021)

Polo Green

Fox Craft Village

Tasker Village

Berkshire Court

Sample of Apartment

Listings - Neighboring

Communities

1 BR Units 2 BR Units 3 BR Units

Overall, for the sample of one-, two- and three-bedroom units, the average size in the

surrounding communities is somewhat, although nominally less, than the average size for the

City of Winchester sample. However, asking rents in the surrounding communities, for each

bedroom type, is less when compared to the City of Winchester, ranging from approximately

$190 per month (three bedroom) to $245 month (two bedroom) indicating that in the

surrounding communities a renter gets a comparable apartment (in terms of average SF) at a

better monthly rent.

5. Pipeline Residential Development

Information current as of March 6, 2021, as provided by the City of Winchester (Figure 29),

indicates that over the 2011 – 2021 timeframe a total of 1,225 residential units in the City of

Winchester have been completed (28% of total) and another 882 units are planned (72% of

total) both predominantly apartments at 307 units and 645 units, respectively.

Figure 29 – PUD Residential Development 2011 - 2021

More specific information by project identification and development mix is provided in Table

25, and notes the following:

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Apt (1 BR) Apt (2 BR) Apt (3 BR) Apt (4 BR) Townhomes CondosCompleted Incomplete

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• Under construction – 70 apartment units are currently under construction and 16

townhome units are currently under production.

• Pending (not yet approved) – 134 apartment units pending but not yet approved.

• Proposed or planned (not yet approved) – 441 apartments units, 176 townhome units

and 44 condominium units.

Table 25 – PUD Residential Development 2011 – 2021 City of Winchester

Construction Age

Status Restricted

1 2 3 4 2 3 2 3

Brooks Manor, Phase 1 1/24/2019 Full Occupancy N 10 0.86 10 11.63

The Bottling Works 7/21/2016 Full Occupancy N 13 10 1.3 23 17.69

Lofts at Jubal Early Sq. 6/1/2015 Full Occupancy N 24 96 20 8.53 140 16.41

Meadow Branch Phase 1 12/20/2016 Full Occupancy N* 44 76 24 26 10.59 170 16.05

Harrison Plaza 3/12/2020 Under Cons. N 25 45 4.68 70 14.96

Brooks Manor, Phase 2 1/24/2019 Under Cons. N 14 2 1.47 16 10.88

Meadow Branch Phase 2 Not Yet Approved Pending N 36 74 24 7.5 134 17.87

Creekside Condos Not Yet Approved Not Started N 14 31 4.44 45 10.14

Hackwoods SVWC Not Yet Approved Not Started Y 7 32 9.65 39 4.04

The Local(Spring St) Not Yet Approved Not Started N** 8 140 42 8 6.23 198 31.78

Roberts Square Not Yet Approved Not Started N 36 1.96 36 18.37

Linden Drive Not Yet Approved Not Started Y/N*** 114 36 156 22.77 306 13.44

Treetops, Phase 2 Not Yet Approved Not Started N 12 6 1.87 18 9.63

375 W Tevis Not Yet Approved Not Started N 20 1.94 20 10.31

* 26 townhouse-styled apts- not separately platted for ownership Completed 81 182 44 - 36 - - - 343

** Oriented towards SU Students Incomplete 202 369 66 8 170 22 14 31 882

*** 160 Apts. age restricted, 154 T.H. not age-restricted TOTAL 283 551 110 8 206 22 14 31 83.79 1,225 14.62

Source : City of Winchester, VA and RKG (2021)

Density

(Number

of

units/Acre)Project Site Plan Approval Apartments (Bedrooms) Townhouses Condos Acreage Total Units

B. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

1. Methodology and Data Sources

RKG analyzed the affordability of the City of Winchester’s housing stock for both renter and

owner households. According to the Department of Housing and Urban Development

(HUD), affordability is defined as a household paying no more than 30% of its monthly gross

income on monthly housing costs. Therefore, for the purposes of this study, households

spending over 30% of its monthly gross income on housing costs is considered ‘cost-

burdened.’

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Each year, HUD calculates the Area Median Income (AMI) of geographic areas nationwide.

Winchester’s 2021 AMI for a family of four is $81,400. RKG calculated income thresholds

based on percentages of Winchester’s 2021 AMI. These income thresholds correspond to-30%

AMI, 50% AMI, 80% AMI, 100% AMI and 120% AMI. For this study, RKG assumed rental

households contain 2 persons while owner households contain 3 persons. Therefore, among

City of Winchester households earning 50% of the AMI, renters earn up to $32,600 while

owners earn up to $36,650 (Table 26).

The defined income thresholds determine the maximum amount owner and renter

households can pay on monthly housing costs to be considered affordable. Housing costs

differ between owner and rental households. Renter costs are the monthly rental payment

plus any associated utilities. A rental household earning the 50% AMI threshold ($32,600) in

2021 should pay no more than $815 each month (Table 27). Any amount above $815 qualifies

a 2-person rental household 50% AMI renter household as ‘cost-burdened.’ The following

table indicates the maximum amount rental households in the City of Winchester will pay to

meet HUD’s affordability standards, based on their corresponding income threshold and

number of household members.

Table 27

Corresponding Monthly Gross Rent Thresholds

City of Winchester, VA (2021)

Income Threshold 2 3 4

30% AMI (Extremely Low) $489 $550 $663

50% AMI (Very Low) $815 $916 $1,018

80% AMI (Low) $1,303 $1,465 $1,628

100% AMI $1,630 $1,833 $2,035

120% AMI $1,956 $2,199 $2,442

Source: HUD and RKG Associates, Inc. 2021


Table 26

HUD Household Income Thresholds

Winchester, VA-WV HUD MSA Area (2021)

Rental Analysis Owner Analysis Baseline

Income Threshold (2-Person) (3-Person) (4-Person)

30% AMI (Extremely Low) $19,550 $22,000 $26,500

50% AMI (Very Low) $32,600 $36,650 $40,700

80% AMI (Low) $52,100 $58,600 $65,100

100% AMI $65,200 $73,300 $81,400

120% AMI $78,240 $87,960 $97,680

Source: HUD and RKG Associates, Inc.,2021

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In contrast, monthly ownership costs include the mortgage principal, interest, taxes, and

insurance payments. Owning a condominium will also include monthly ‘condo fees’, added

to the typical monthly owner costs. RKG converted ownership costs for single family homes

and condominiums to reflect the maximum affordable purchase price of single-family homes

and condominiums within the City of Winchester (Table 28).

Owner households either finance home purchases through FHA or Conventional loans. FHA

loans are backed by the federal government, aimed at home buyers who cannot qualify for a

conventional loan. FHA loans require a 3.5% down payment of the home’s value while

conventional loans are often 20%. RKG incorporated these loan percentages to estimate the

maximum affordable purchase price for each corresponding income threshold, either

qualifying for an FHA or conventional loan. As indicated in the table above, RKG assumed

conventional homebuyers of each income threshold can afford higher home values than FHA

buyers.

After identifying the housing affordability standards among local owner and rental

households, RKG analyzed the City of Winchester’s housing supply and demand to

understand local demographics and the availability of affordable living opportunities. The

demand analysis uses estimates from the American Community Survey (ACS) and ESRI,

comparing household tenure (renter vs. owner) occupancy characteristics and their relative

proportions. The housing supply analysis primarily uses the property tax assessment data

from the City of Winchester. Through the assessment records, RKG estimated market values

of ownership housings, corroborating the estimated values against current listings to support

the estimates. To determine the prices of rental units, data was collected by Apartments.com

and interviews with property managers.

After estimating the City of Winchester’s Housing Supply and Demand, RKG identified

housing gaps and surpluses among owner and rental households and their corresponding

defined income thresholds. Gaps indicate that there are more City of Winchester households

in the income threshold than housing units affordable to their ability to pay. A surplus of

units indicate there are more housing units priced to the income threshold than demand from

existing City of Winchester households.

Table 28

Maximum Affordable Single Family Home/Condominium Maximum Value


Single Family Condo Single Family Condo

Income Threshold Income Limit Max. Home Value Max. Home Value Max. Home Value Max. Home Value

30% AMI (Extremely Low) $22,000 $102,660 $92,966 $119,342 $106,866

50% AMI (Very Low) $36,650 $171,023 $161,329 $198,814 $186,337

80% AMI (Low) $58,600 $273,449 $263,755 $317,885 $305,408

100% AMI $73,300 $342,045 $332,351 $397,627 $385,151

120% AMI $87,960 $410,454 $400,760 $477,153 $464,676

Source: HUD and RKG Associates, Inc., 2021


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RKG then projected the future rental housing supply and demand through 2026, using ESRI

data and pipeline information provided by the City of Winchester’s Planning Department.

Ownership demand was projected through 2026 while ownership supply was not, due to data

limitations.

Figure 30- Map of Subareas

City of Winchester and RKG Associates Inc., 2021

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RKG also analyzed the housing stock of six distinct subareas within the City of Winchester

(Figure 30), identifying existing residential development patterns and trends between 2010

and 2021. RKG delineated each subarea based on their similar housing market characteristics.

2. Residential Demand

Like most urban areas, the City of

Winchester is predominately renters,

comprising 56% of all households

(Figure 31). This is a recent

phenomenon for the city as owner

households dominated in 2010. In

part, the increased rental demand is

attributed to the relatively higher costs

of homeownership. The existing rental

supply shortage creates a challenge for

the city to meet the heightened

demand. It also strains the

affordability of rental households,

particularly those containing 4 or

more persons.

Large rental households of 4 or

more persons comprise most new

rental demand. Since 2010, nearly 70%

of new rental households are 4 or more

persons, that corresponds with a 32%

decrease of owner households with 4

or more persons (Figure 32). Most

rental units within traditional

multifamily complexes (6+ units)

contain fewer than 3 bedrooms. If

these large rental households are not

living in overcrowded conditions,

many are likely renting converted

single familyhomes, more suitable in

scale to accommodate their household

size.

Renting converted single family homes, originally constructed for home ownership, is

precarious. Current tenants are vulnerable to eviction. Their current landlords may reconvert

the homes back to homeownership. A strong possibility, since the City of Winchester’s

property values continue to rise, inciting sales of these properties . If that happens, these larger

Source: ACS 2019

Figure 31

Figure 32

Source: ACS Estimates, 2010 and 2019

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Page 53

rental households will be faced with limited living options, increasing their cost burdens

and reducing their quality of life.

Consistent with national trends, owner households in the City of Winchester typically earn

more than rental households. According to ACS estimates, the 2019 median household

income among owner households was $86,782 while the median income among rental

households came in at $44,049. Furthermore nearly 50% of owner households earn more than

120% AMI ($87,960), while only 18.7% of renter households earn this amount (Figure

33). Lower income households are more likely to rent as they lack sufficient income to secure

the down payment and afford ongoing maintenance costs. Younger households in the City of

Winchester, ages 15-24, face similar challenges, prompting a large proportion of this

demographic to seek rental, rather than ownership opportunities.

Figure 33- Proportion of Households by Tenure and Income Threshold, City of Winchester

30% and Below7.7%

31% to 50%8.4%

51% to 80%13.7%

81% to 100%11.5%

101% to 120%9.8%

Over 120%48.9%

Owner Households

30% and Below17.1%

31% to 50%16.1%

51% to 80%28.0%

81% to 100%10.8%

101% to 120%9.3%

Over 120%18.7%

Renter Households

Source: ACS 2019, HUD 2021 and RKG Associates Inc., 2021

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Page 54

3. Residential Supply

Single family homes, which include

detached dwellings and attached

townhome-condominiums, make up

roughly 65% of the City of

Winchester’s existing housing stock

(Figure 34). Nearly 35% of single-

family homes are rentals, an unusually

large proportion for an urban area.

Therefore, this comprises 56% of total

rental units in the city when combined

with the supply of rental units

confined in 2-5 unit residential

structures. The imbalance of

traditional rental units, confined in

large (6+) multifamily rental

complexes or greater, creates pressing issues for the City of Winchester. Notably, fewer

affordable rental units for lower income households and increased likelihood of evictions

among households that rent converted single family homes. Winchester needs density;

however, the preponderance of single-family homes creates land use inefficiencies, thwarting

the opportunity for higher density multifamily development.

This issue is most prominent in

Subarea 6, where 75% of rental units

reside in structures with 1-5 units

(Figure 35). The same goes for

Subarea’s 1 and 2, as approximately

65% of rental units in each area are in

structures with 1-5 units. Subarea 3,

however should be considered a

model for the other subareas; a

sterling example of how more

affordable living opportunities can be

attained within the City of

Winchester- efficiently using space to

boost the supply of rental units.

Figure 34

Source: City of Winchester 2021

Figure 35

Source: City of Winchester 2021

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Page 55

Large (6+) multifamily rental

developments gained traction in the

previous decade. Of the 659 units

constructed since 2010, 71 percent are

in large (6+) multifamily rental

developments (Figure 36). Since 2010,

the higher growth rate of large

multifamily rental structures (6+)

compared to lower density residential

developments is due to market

preferences. On the supply side,

developers earn significantly higher

profit margins. On the demand side,

the abundance of renter households

has exceeded owner households in the

City of Winchester.

Not only do the developers and renters reap the benefits, but in the long-term, nearby

homeowners eventually benefit through increased property values. As benefits are shared

community-wide, the city advances closer to achieving its prioritized goals detailed in its 2021

Strategic Plan and ‘Vision 2030.’ These include the development of more affordable housing

opportunities while stimulating economic opportunity for all residents.

Figure 36- City of Winchester Development Trends

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Page 56

4. Homeownership Affordability Analysis

Purchasing and owning a home is expensive. After the down payment, ownership costs

include the monthly mortgage, insurance, taxes, and for condominium owners, additional

HOA fees. Moreover, owner households face renovation/rehabilitation and

upkeep/maintenance costs, both critical to owning a home in the City of Winchester, as most

single-family homes are older, built before 2000. All these costs create major barriers for lower

income households seeking to purchase a home. Ownership costs are variable too, as lower

income households likely face higher interest payments due to lower credit scores.

Accounting for the costs of homeownership, RKG estimated the supply of ownership units in

the City of Winchester affordable to households among each income threshold-30% AMI, 50%

AMI, 80% AMI, 100% AMI, 120% AMI, 120%+ AMI (Table 29 & Table 30). As described in

section 1, owner households either finance a home purchase through an FHA or conventional

loan. For this study, the calculated home prices reflect a scenario where an FHA requires a

3.5% down payment whereas a conventional loan requires a 20% down payment.

Analyzing both scenarios provided a different range of the number of units affordable to each

income threshold. As lower incomes typically secure FHA loans, most of the analysis will be

focused on the FHA scenario, identifying the corresponding number of households able to

afford homes in their defined income threshold.

Most detached single family homes within the City of Winchester are affordable to low

income households. Under FHA standards, approximately 41% are priced between $171,023

Table 29

Single Family Dwelling Home Supply by Affordability


Min Value Max. Value Supply Percent Min Value Max. Value Supply Percent

Income Threshold 4,694 100% 4,694 100%

30% AMI (Extremely Low) $0 $102,660 53 1.1% $0 $119,342 115 2.4%

50% AMI (Very Low) $102,661 $171,023 585 12.5% $119,342 $198,814 1,139 24.3%

80% AMI (Low) $171,024 $273,449 1,920 40.9% $198,814 $317,885 1,735 37.0%

100% AMI $273,450 $342,045 654 13.9% $317,885 $397,627 714 15.2%

120% AMI $342,046 $410,454 581 12.4% $397,627 $477,153 489 10.4%

120%+ AMI $410,455 901 19.2% $477,154 502 10.7%

Source: City of Winchester Property Assessment Data


Table 30

Townhome-Condominium Attached Home Supply by Affordability



Income Threshold 293 100% 293 100%

30% AMI (Extremely Low) $0 $92,966 2 0.7% $0 $106,866 7 2.4%

50% AMI (Very Low) $92,967 $161,329 41 14.0% $106,867 $186,337 72 24.6%

80% AMI (Low) $161,330 $263,755 213 72.7% $186,338 $305,408 192 65.5%

100% AMI $263,756 $332,351 21 7.2% $305,409 $385,151 12 4.1%

120% AMI $332,352 $400,760 9 3.1% $385,152 $464,676 10 3.4%

120%+ AMI $400,761 7 2.4% $464,677 0 0.0%

Source: City of Winchester Property Assessment Data


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Page 57

and $273,449, consistent with households earning 50% to 80% AMI. Townhome-

condominiums too, are predominately priced within the 50% to 80% income threshold under

FHA.

While ownership units are affordable

to lower income households, too many

are unavailable That’s because they’re

likely occupied by high-income

households, whose choices are limited

due to the shortage of high value

ownership units (Figure 37). Nearly 50

percent of households earn above

120% AMI while only 19.7 percent of

ownership units are priced

correspondingly for this income

threshold. As higher income

households occupy less-valuable

homes, the downward pressure on the

ownership market inflates the values

of homes. As a result, lower income

households either purchase a home

beyond what their income allows or

switch to renting.

The City of Winchester’s recent housing market transformation--renter households now

exceed owner households--is largely attributed to the rising costs of homeownership. While

the lowest income households (30% AMI) are pushed to rental housing, it won’t be long before

current moderate income households are too. Largely a result of the downward pressure on

the ownership market from the highest income households.

5. Rental Affordability Analysis

RKG also estimated the supply of rental units in the City of Winchester, affordable to renter

households among each income threshold-30% AMI, 50% AMI, 80% AMI, 100% AMI, 120%

AMI, 120%+ AMI. Correspondingly, RKG compared the number of rental households able to

afford rental units among each income threshold. The results of the analysis are used to help

the City of Winchester develop policies and interventions that increase the availability of

rental units affordable to each income threshold.

Figure 37

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Page 58

Like the City of Winchester’s

ownership supply, most rental units

are affordable to households earning

between 50% to 80% AMI--42

percent (Table 31). Further, minimal

rental opportunities exist for the

highest and lowest incomes. Fewer

than one percent of units are

available to rental households

earning above 120% AMI while

roughly three percent are available to rental households earning below

30% AMI. The limited options available to these households, forces them to live in units priced

above what is affordable for their income threshold.

The high proportion of rental households and correspondingly low proportion of rental units

among the highest and lowest income thresholds, translates to major shortages (Figure 38).

Therefore, most rental households

earning above 120% AMI or under

30% AMI must occupy rental units

priced out of their corresponding rent

threshold.

The major shortage of rental units for

the highest income households

adversely impacts relatively lower

income rental households-increasing

cost burdens and the likelihood of

displacement. Eventually, as housing

instability persists among low-

income rental households, the rest of

the City of Winchester will be

impacted too, including major

disruptions to the economy and

provision of local community

services.

6. Future Affordability Projections

RKG projected the City of Winchester’s housing demand in 2026, applying ESRI’s projection

rates (2021-2026) to current household demand for both renter and owner households within

each HUD defined income threshold. RKG then projected the City of Winchester’s rental

housing supply in 2026, using multifamily pipeline data provided by the City of Winchester

Planning Department. The 2026 owner housing supply was not projected due to data

limitations.

Figure 38

Table 31

Rental Units by Monthly Gross Rent Thresholds


Count Percent

Income Thresholds Minimum Maximum 6,621 100.0%

30% AMI (Extremely Low) $0 $489 188 2.8%

50% AMI (Very Low) $490 $815 1,064 16.1%

80% AMI (Low) $816 $1,303 2,779 42.0%

100% AMI $1,304 $1,630 1,648 24.9%

120% AMI $1,631 $1,956 910 13.7%

120%+ AMI $1,957 33 0.5%

Sources: 2019 ACS, HUD 2021, and RKG Associates, Inc. 2021

Rent Thresholds

Figure 38

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Page 59

The projected growth of owner and

rental households is concentrated

among affluent households. Owner

households earning above 120% AMI

make up approximately 96 percent of

projected owner household growth,

while owner households earning

above 120% AMI comprise 85 percent

of projected renta; household growth.

The large projected growth of affluent

households may come from the influx

of high-income earning households

from Northern Virginia, attracted to

the relatively cheaper living costs and

the balance of small town feel and

urban amenities the City of

Winchester offers.

The growing pressure of these affluent

households will escalate the prices of

owner and rental units, especially

since high-end rental housing is

projected to face an even higher

shortage than the current year (Figure

40). Again, affluent households will

seek rental options below their income

threshold, placing cost burdens on

relatively lower income households.

To make matters worse, as demand for

ownership housing increases, the

converted rental units are at risk to

reconvert to ownership housing to

meet the eminent demand.

As discussed earlier, these converted rental units provide living for large rental households

of 4 persons or more. The reconversion would put even greater cost pressures on lower

income rental households and owner households alike.

Figure 39

Figure 40

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Winchester, VA Housing Market Analysis

Preliminary Findings Presentation

1

Page 108 of 157

▪ Winchester housing stock is predominantly rental▪ Failure to meet the market demand for larger rental units leading to conversion of traditional

single-family dwellings

▪ Clear income and age disparity between renters and owners within Winchester

▪ Supply is not meeting demand▪ Demand for rental properties, specifically larger unit rentals, is leading to status conversions

▪ Housing development has been predominantly multi-family since 2010

▪ Housing quality and variety differ within the subareas of the City

▪ Lack of supply is impacting affordability for prospective homeowners▪ Existing housing stock suggests a large supply of affordable opportunities for those making

between 50-80% AMI

▪ Supply gap of availability at the top end is leading to price escalation of all units

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

2

Page 109 of 157

▪ Lack of supply is impacting affordability for renters▪ New rental product under development is majority market rate

▪ Most vulnerable populations are substantially underserved

▪ Lack of larger rental units (3+ bedroom) causing increase conversions

▪ Supply/Demand balance is projected to worsen▪ Robust pipeline of development projects, but lacking in price diversity

▪ Growing pressure from affluent households will increase price escalation

▪ Balance projected to worsen for lower income households

▪ Long-term impacts of COVID-19 are still unknown

▪ THE LOCAL HOUSING SITUATION IS NOT UNIQUE!

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

3

Page 110 of 157

DEFINING TERMS/GEOGRAPHIES

4

Page 111 of 157

SUBAREA BOUNDARIES

▪ Housing analysis done at the citywide level as well as for six subareas

▪ Subareas grouped because of their similar housing market characteristics

▪ Residential Development Trends Analysis done at citywide level and for each subarea

▪ The corresponding map reflects boundaries and subarea identification

5

Page 112 of 157

6

Page 113 of 157



Income Bands (2-Person) (3-Person) (4-Person)

Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $19,550 $22,000 $26,500

Very Low (50%) Income Limits $32,600 $36,650 $40,700

Low (80%) Income Limits $52,100 $58,600 $65,100

100% AMI $65,200 $73,300 $81,400

120% AMI $78,240 $87,960 $97,680

Renter Income Thresholds

Owner Income Thresholds


Income Bands (2-Person) (3-Person) (4-Person)

Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $19,550 $22,000 $26,500

Very Low (50%) Income Limits $32,600 $36,650 $40,700


100% AMI $65,200 $73,300 $81,400

120% AMI $78,240 $87,960 $97,680

7

Page 114 of 157

APPROACH HOUSING VALUE ANALYSIS

▪ Certain incomes can ”afford” a certain mortgage or rent payment▪ HUD defines cost burdened at more than 30% of gross income▪ Homeownership costs include principle, interest, taxes and insurance▪ Rental housing calculation based on income▪ Calculations based on HUD Income thresholds for Winchester region

▪ The City’s housing units each carry a relative price if they were on the market▪ Ownership units were measured against market value

▪ Analysis compared assessed values against recent sales prices to determine value▪ Corroborated findings against current listings

▪ Rental units were measured against current asking rents▪ Collected monthly rent data by subarea▪ Used Zillow listings, ACS rent data, and information provided by local Realtors

8

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Corresponding Rent Thresholds

Corresponding Purchase Price Thresholds

Income Bands 2 3 4

Extremely Low (30%) Income Limits $489 $550 $663

Very Low (50%) Income Limits $815 $916 $1,018


100% AMI $1,630 $1,833 $2,035

120% AMI $1,956 $2,199 $2,442


Single Family Condo Single Family Condo

Max. Home Value Max. Home Value Max. Home Value Max. Home Value

30% $102,660 $92,966 $119,342 $106,866

50% $171,023 $161,329 $198,814 $186,337

80% $273,449 $263,755 $317,885 $305,408

100% $342,045 $332,351 $397,627 $385,151

120% $410,454 $400,760 $477,153 $464,676


AMI Threshold

9

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DEMAND ANALYSIS

10

Page 117 of 157

44%

56%

Households by Tenure (2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)Winchester, VA

Owner HH Renter HH

Larger proportion of

renter households than

owner households, typical

for more urban areas.

11

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15 to 2417

0.4%

25 to 44862

18.6%

45 to 642077

44.7%

Over 651686

36.3%

Owner Households by Age of Head of HH(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

15 to 24380

6.5%

25 to 442520

43.1%

45 to 641983

33.9%

Over 65965

16.5%

Renter Households by Age of Head of HH(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

Younger households,

ages 15-24,

generally lack income

and cash reserves for

home down payment

Nearly half of renter

households are headed

by person 45+ years old

12

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30% and Below359

7.7%

31% to 50%390

8.4%

51% to 80%635

13.7%

81% to 100%532

11.5%

101% to 120%454

9.8%

Over 120%2,27248.9%

Owner Households by HUD AMI(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

30% and Below1,001 17.1%

31% to 50%942

16.1%

51% to 80%1,637 28.0%

81% to 100%632

10.8%

101% to 120%542

9.3%

Over 120%1,094 18.7%

Renter Households by HUD AMI(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

33% of renters earn

less than $36,650 (50%

of area AMI)

Income gap between

renters and owners

substantial

13

Page 120 of 157

(316)

(115)

71

(171)

(531)

149

(34)

150

535

800

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1-Person 2-Persons 3-Persons 4+ Persons Total

Change of Owner and Renter Households by Size (2010-2019)City of Winchester

Owner Renter 14

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1-Person1142

24.6%

2-Persons1858

40.0%

3-Persons810

17.4%

4+ Persons832

17.9%

Owner Households by Size(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

1-Person2451

41.9%

2-Persons1336

22.8%

3-Persons771

13.2%

4+ Persons1290

22.1%

Renter Households by Size(2019 ACS 5-Year Estimates)

City of Winchester

15

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▪ Winchester predominately a renter community (56%)▪ Number of renter households increased since 2010 while the number of homeowners

decreased▪ Unmet demand for rental housing, particularly larger households, and Winchester’s relative

ownership housing affordability driving market conversions▪ Trend likely to continue without new rental development, particularly for larger units

▪ Renter Households are generally younger ▪ Consistent with national trends ▪ Younger households tend to have lower incomes, lack of down payment to purchase


16

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▪ There is an income disparity between renters and owners▪ Consistent with national trends

▪ Lower income households struggle with pricing, down payment, cost of maintenance

▪ Nearly 50% of owner households earn more than 120% AMI ($87,960)

▪ Approximately 70% of renter households earn less than 100% AMI


17

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SUPPLY ANALYSIS

18

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6,730

1,212

2,938

722

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000





Housing Units

Housi

ng T

ypes

Development Patterns by TypeCity of Winchester, VA

Nearly 60% of residential development is

confined in detached single family dwellings.

Roughly 30% of these homes are rentals, an

unusually large proportion for urban areas.

19

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2,467

1,212

2,938

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Single Family/Townhome-Condo


Multifamily (6+)

Housing Units

Housi

ng T

ypes

Rental Units by Structure Type City of Winchester, VA

Approximately 55% of Multifamily

Units are contained in structures with 1-

5 units. Single family structures

(detached dwellings and attached

townhome-condominiums) compose

nearly 40% of multifamily rental units.

20

Page 127 of 157

154

2

466

37

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500





Housing Units

Housi

ng T

ypes

Development Patterns by Type (Units Built 2010-2021)City of Winchester, VA

Most development has been multifamily (6+

units), a relative difference from development

construction prior to 2010, which composed

mostly of single family homes.

21

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22

191

3

137

295

11

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Sub-Area 1

Sub-Area 2

Sub-Area 3

Sub-Area 4

Sub-Area 5

Sub-Area 6

Housing Units

Housi

ng T

ypes

Development Patterns by Sub-Area (Units Built 2010-2021)City of Winchester, VA

Subarea 5 had the largest

development in the previous

decade, largely due to the

newly constructed Meadow

Branch Apartments.

22

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22

35

3

89

31

11

0 20 40 60 80 100

Sub Area 1

Sub Area 2

Sub Area 3

Sub Area 4

Sub Area 5

Sub Area 6

Housing Units

Housi

ng T

ypes

Single Family and Townhome-Condomimum (Units Built 2010-2021)City of Winchester, VA

23

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▪ Housing conversions creating imbalance in typical rental housing by housing type▪ Nearly 40% of rental units are contained in either detached single family homes or attached

townhome-condominiums.

▪ The total of rental units within structures that are 5 units or fewer exceed the total of rental units within structures greater than 5 units

▪ Housing differs within the City’s subareas▪ Subarea 5 has the most detached single-family homes of any subarea while composing 70%

of housing types within its subarea.

▪ Subarea 6 has the largest proportion of detached single-family homes of any subarea while composing 73% of housing types within its subarea.

▪ The largest proportion of multifamily rental units among all subareas is in subarea 3, composing 60% of housing types.

▪ Subarea 1 has the largest housing diversity among all subareas

KEY FINDINGSHOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS

24

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▪ Housing development predominantly has been multifamily since 2010▪ Due to large multifamily complexes- Meadow Branch Apartments and Jubal Square

Apartments▪ Developers do not make enough money on low-density development due to high land costs▪ Redevelopment requires greater density to be profitable▪ Market is reacting to greatest demand, regional land use regulation constraints▪ Subarea 4 constructed the most detached single-family dwellings in the previous decade

KEY FINDINGS HOUSING SUPPLY ANALYSIS

25

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HOMEOWNERSHIPAFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

26

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KEY ASSUMPTIONS HOMEOWNERSHIP AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

▪ Homeownership more than just ability to pay mortgage▪ Qualifying credit score▪ Down payment▪ Renovation/rehabilitation costs

▪ VERY important in Winchester’s most affordable ownership units

▪ Upkeep and maintenance costs▪ HOA fees for condominiums

▪ Lowest income households have several barriers to ownership▪ Typically, many of the above issues

27

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APPROACHHOMEOWNERSHIP AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

▪ Analysis uses both FHA lending standards and conventional lending standards▪ FHA (3.5% down payment) simulates ‘worst case scenario’▪ Conventional (20.0% down payment) assumes ‘best case’

▪ Nationally, lending for home purchases is about 90% FHA▪ We cannot determine exact numbers in Winchester because the data is not available at local

level▪ Analyzing both FHA and Conventional lending scenarios provides range of affordability for

purchasing

▪ Analysis shows the balance between “supply” and “demand” for specific income groups▪ Supply – Number of ownership units that are affordable to households in that AMI group▪ Demand - Total households that exist in Winchester with incomes in that AMI group

28

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AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISSINGLE FAMILY OWNERSHIP SUPPLY

▪ Using FHA standards, the largest portion of single-family homes are priced between $171,023 and $273,449 , consistent with households earning 50% to 80% AMI.

Single Family Detached Home Supply by Affordability


AMI Threshold


Total 4,692 100% 4,692 100%

30% $0 $102,660 51 1.1% $0 $119,342 113 2.4%

50% $102,661 $171,023 586 12.5% $119,342 $198,814 1,140 24.3%

80% $171,024 $273,449 1,920 40.9% $198,814 $317,885 1,735 37.0%

100% $273,450 $342,045 653 13.9% $317,885 $397,627 713 15.2%

120% $342,046 $410,454 581 12.4% $397,627 $477,153 489 10.4%

120%+ $410,455 901 19.2% $477,154 502 10.7%


29

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AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISCONDOMINIUM HOMEOWNERSHIP SUPPLY

▪ Most Townhome-Condominiums are priced within the 50%-80% AMI threshold, same as detached single-family homes.

Townhome-Condominium Attached Home Supply by Affordability


AMI Threshold


Total 293 100% 293 100%

30% $0 $92,966 2 0.7% $0 $106,866 7 2.4%

50% $92,967 $161,329 41 14.0% $106,867 $186,337 72 24.6%

80% $161,330 $263,755 213 72.7% $186,338 $305,408 192 65.5%

100% $263,756 $332,351 21 7.2% $305,409 $385,151 12 4.1%

120% $332,352 $400,760 9 3.1% $385,152 $464,676 10 3.4%

120%+ $400,761 7 2.4% $464,677 0 0.0%


30

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AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISHOMEOWNERSHIP GAP/SURPLUS

Ownership Housing Supply and Demand by HUD AMI Income Threshold


FHA Conventional

AMI Threshold Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Count

Total 4,985 100% 4,985 100% 4,642 100% 343 343

30% of AMI (Extremely Low Income) and Below 53 1.1% 120 2.4% 359 7.7% (306) (239)

31%-50% of AMI (Very Low Income) 627 12.6% 1,212 24.3% 390 8.4% 237 822

51%-80% of AMI (Low Income) 2,133 42.8% 1,927 38.7% 635 13.7% 1,498 1,292

81%-100% of AMI 674 13.5% 725 14.5% 532 11.5% 142 193

101%-120% of AMI 590 11.8% 499 10.0% 454 9.8% 136 45

121% of AMI and Above 908 18.2% 502 10.1% 2,272 48.9% (1,364) (1,770)

Gap

FHA Buyer Conventional Buyer

Supply

(Single Family, Townhouse/Condominium)

Demand (No. of Owner

Households)

▪ Under FHA Standards, Winchester lacks ownership housing supply for households earning below 30% of AMI and above 121% of AMI

▪ Lack of supply at the highest end is driving development decisions, creating downward pressure on market (increasing prices)

31

Page 138 of 157

(306)

237

1,498

142 136

(1,364)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%

Hous

ing

Uni

ts

AMI Level

Ownership Housing Supply/Demand Equilibrium by HUD Income ThresholdCity of Winchester, VA

A 'Surplus' of units indicate there are

more housing units priced to this

income group than demand from

existing Winchester Households.

A 'Gap' of units indicate there are

more Winchester households in that

income group than housing units

affordable to their ability to pay.

32

Page 139 of 157

▪ In general, Winchester has a large supply of affordable home-ownership opportunities for households making between 50% and 80% AMI▪ Only 14% of ownership units are available for households earning under 50% AMI▪ Under FHA standards, only 1% of homes are available for households earning below 30%

AMI, creating a major shortfall

▪ Winchester does not have enough housing units to meet demand at the highest income levels (over 120% AMI/$87,960)▪ Subarea 5 has the largest supply▪ Estimates indicate a gap of nearly 1,400 owner occupied households ▪ Lack of supply of high-end ownership housing drives up prices and demand for less-expensive

units due to stringer demand▪ Has impact on future affordability

KEY FINDINGS HOMEOWNERSHIP AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

33

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RENTALAFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

34

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APPROACHRENTAL AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

▪ Rental analysis examines prices and corresponding number of households able to afford those prices ▪ HUD defines income thresholds by household size and bedroom count’

▪ Analysis shows the balance between “supply” and “demand” for specific income groups▪ Supply – Number of ownership units that exist in Winchester that are affordable to

households in that AMI group▪ Demand - Total households that exist in Winchester with incomes in that AMI group

35

Page 142 of 157

AFFORDABILITY ANALYSISRENTAL SUPPLY

▪ Roughly 60% of rental units are priced below 80% AMI threshold ($52,100); fewer than 1% priced above 120% AMI ($78,240)

▪ 19% priced below 50% AMI (including 80 income-controlled units)▪ Nearly 20% of renter households earn less than 30% AMI

Rent Levels Minimum Maximum Count Percent

Total 6,617 100.0%

Under 30% of AMI $0 $489 188 2.8%

30% to 50% $490 $815 1,063 16.1%

50% to 80% $816 $1,303 2,778 42.0%

80% to 100% $1,304 $1,630 1,647 24.9%

100% to 120% $1,631 $1,956 910 13.7%

Over 120% of AMI $1,957 33 0.5%

Rent Thresholds Total

36

Page 143 of 157

▪ Housing in Winchester predominantly priced between 50% and 80% AMI, especially among townhome-condominium units.

▪ Largest number of detached single-family homes priced above 120% AMI located in Subarea 5 (467 total homes priced above $410,454)

▪ Using FHA Standards, only 5.5% of townhome-condominiums are priced above 100% AMI

KEY FINDINGSHOUSING VALUE ANALYSIS

37

Page 144 of 157

KEY FINDINGS RENTAL AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

AMI Threshold Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%

Annual HH Income $19,550 $32,600 $52,100 $65,200 $78,240 $78,720+

Rent Level $489 $815 $1,303 $1,630 $1,956 $1,968+

TOTAL

Supply 188 1,065 2,782 1,649 911 33

Demand 1,001 942 1,637 632 542 1,094

Gap (813) 124 1,145 1,017 369 (1,062)

▪ Substantial unmet demand at the lowest (under 30% AMI) and highest (over 120% AMI) ends of the income spectrum

38

Page 145 of 157

(813)

121

1,141

1,015

367

(1,062)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%

Housi

ng U

nits

AMI Level

Rental Housing Supply/Demand Gap by HUD Income ThresholdCity of Winchester, VA

There are rental supply needs for the

highest end (Above 120% AMI)

Major supply deficiencies for

households earning under 30%

AMI.

39

Page 146 of 157

▪ Most vulnerable households substantially underserve▪ More than 81% of households earning below 30% AMI are cost burdened▪ Interviews with local housing professionals indicate most affordable units also worst

condition

▪ New development priced for 100% AMI to 120% AMI income range▪ Meeting unmet demand of higher income renters▪ However, new development not robust enough to mitigate rent escalation being faster than

cost of living

▪ Lack of larger (2+ bedroom) apartments causing conversion of traditional ownership units to rental▪ Regulations limiting the development of units with more bedrooms will perpetuate this

trend, particularly for townhouse style rental units

KEY FINDINGSRENTAL AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

40

Page 147 of 157

FUTUREAFFORDABILITY PROJECTIONS

41

Page 148 of 157

▪ 2026 Household demand▪ Collected ESRI detailed projection rates (2021-2026) by household income ▪ Applied ESRI projection rates to current household demand by tenure (Renter vs. Owner)

based on HUD defined income thresholds▪ Projected the number of renter and owner households demanding housing units in 2026

▪ 2026 Housing unit supply▪ Collected number of multifamily housing units expected to be constructed by 2026 through

the City of Winchester Planning Department▪ Added these pipeline units to the current supply of rental housing units in the city’s

boundaries

METHODOLOGYPROJECTED AFFORDABILITY ANALYSIS

42

Page 149 of 157

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Over 120% Total

House

hold

sProjected Change in Ownership Households by HUD AMI (2021-2026)


43

Page 150 of 157

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Over 120% Total

House

hold

sProjected Change in Renter Households by HUD AMI


44

Page 151 of 157

(745)

14

1,126

1,409

813

(1,350)(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Under 30% 30%-50% 50%-80% 80%-100% 100%-120% Above 120%

Housi

ng U

nits

Projected Supply/Demand Equilibrium for Rental Units 2021-2026


Major growth of supply-demand gap,

reflective of projected insufficient

construction of 120% AMI units, based

on historical development trends

Due to future construction of

multifamily complexes, projected to

be aimed at rental households

earning between 80%-120% AMI

45

Page 152 of 157

▪ Rapid development relative to previous decade (2010-2020)▪ 840 rental units and 240 townhome-condominium units expected to be delivered in next five

years▪ Large apartment complexes expected to be under construction soon, near the downtown

corridor (targeting young professionals)▪ Roughly 200 of rental units expected to be age restricted (55+)

▪ Known development projects focused on market-rate development (estimating 80%-120% AMI units based on historical trends) ▪ Number of income-controlled units is unknown

▪ Impacts of economy; COVID-19 will affect the new unit construction▪ Telecommuting/preferences of being outside major urban areas increasing demand in City▪ Push from Northern Virginia skewed to higher income backets▪ Price escalation likely will increase


46

Page 153 of 157

▪ Supply-demand balance projected to worsen for lower income households▪ “Surplus” of housing between 30% and 50% AMI diminished while under 30% still substantial

▪ Will create even greater cost burdening/displacement of the most vulnerable residents

▪ Growing pressure from more affluent households will drive price escalation▪ Demand will outpace supply

▪ Without new development, prices will continue to rise faster than inflation

▪ This is for both rental and ownership

▪ Rehabilitation of units will decrease “affordable supply

▪ Increasing demand from affluent homeowners may reverse conversion trends▪ This will adversely impact larger, lower income households substantially

▪ Decrease available converted units AND drive pricing up for those that remain


47

Page 154 of 157

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

48

Page 155 of 157

▪ Winchester housing stock is predominantly rental▪ Failure to meet the market demand for larger rental units leading to conversion of traditional

single-family dwellings

▪ Clear income and age disparity between renters and owners within Winchester

▪ Supply is not meeting demand▪ Demand for rental properties, specifically larger unit rentals, is leading to status conversions

▪ Housing development has been predominantly multi-family since 2010

▪ Housing quality and variety differ within the subareas of the City

▪ Lack of supply is impacting affordability for prospective homeowners▪ Existing housing stock suggests a large supply of affordable opportunities for those making

between 50-80% AMI

▪ Supply gap of availability at the top end is leading to price escalation of all units

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

49

Page 156 of 157

▪ Lack of supply is impacting affordability for renters▪ New rental product under development is majority market rate

▪ Most vulnerable populations are substantially underserved

▪ Lack of larger rental units (3+ bedroom) causing increase conversions

▪ Supply/Demand balance is projected to worsen▪ Robust pipeline of development projects, but lacking in price diversity

▪ Growing pressure from affluent households will increase price escalation

▪ Balance projected to worsen for lower income households

▪ Long-term impacts of COVID-19 are still unknown

▪ THE LOCAL HOUSING SITUATION IS NOT UNIQUE!

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

50

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