Counterfactual Conditionals and False Belief

Eva Rafetseder, Christine Hofer & Josef Perner

2 Guiding Questions

1. Under which circumstances can we conclude that children are able to reason counterfactually?

2. Based on the drawn conclusion, does there exist a connection between counterfactual reasoning and false belief?

2

Typical Counterfactual Task

Story: Carol comes home and she doesn‘t take her shoes off.She makes the floor all dirty with her shoes.

Test: Counterfactual question: „If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be dirty or clean?“

! Children are able to give the correct answer „clean“ as soon as they understand that the consequence has to differ from reality (= counter to fact).

3Harris et al. (1996)

Results

4Harris et al. (1996)

Performance differs from chance for both age groups:

3 - 4 correct

0 - 2 correct

D(N = 13) = 0.40, p<.01D(N = 13) = 0.53, p<.01

Consider!

Carol didn‘t take her muddy shoes off and walked over the clean floor. The floor is all dirty.

Counterfactual(subjunctive Question)

If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be clean or dirty?

[clean]

Hypothetical(indicative Question)

If Carol takes her shoes off, is the floor clean or dirty?

[clean]

same (correct) answer with and without counterfactual reasoning(!)

5

Needed Distinction

Counterfactual reasoning- Combines assumptions with

facts- Subjunctive

- Example:Somebody walked with dirty shoes on the clean floor. IF this person had taken the dirty shoes off THEN the floor would have stayed clean.

6

Hypothetical reasoning- Reasoning with assumptions

„counter to fact“- Indicative

- Example:IF (whenever) somebody takes the dirty shoes off THEN the floor is (tends to be) clean.

Reasoning brought to bear

by children (??)

We should use tasks in which counterfactual and hypothetical reasoning give different answers to a counterfactual question in order to avoid false positives!

Reasoning asked for by

experimenter (!!)

Developmental Test

Simple Version Complex VersionHarris et al. (1996) Schwitalla (2010)

Carol doesn‘t take her shoes off. She makes the floor all dirty with her shoes.

Carol and John don‘t take their shoes off. They make the floor all dirty with their shoes.

„If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be dirty or clean?“„Show me: How would the floor look?“

[clean] [dirty]

7

Results

8Schwitalla (2010)

t(60) = 7.27, p < .001

Results

9

% of 7;8 - 10;8 year olds% of 5;0 – 6;1 year olds

simple

complex

all four correct

more simple correct

1 cf / 1fb correct

Schwitalla (2010)

Results

10

complex

simple

Schwitalla (2010)

% o

f 7;8

- 1

0;8

year

old

s

… and with a different scenario?

11

Developmental Test

motherputs

sweets

bottom shelf

top shelf boy‘s room

girl‘s room

boy comes girl comes

OR

too short

1st Transformation 2nd Transformation

Pilz (2005)

12

Today mother puts sweets into the top box.

Memory 1: Where are the sweets now?

Future Hypothetical EventWhat will happen with the sweets, when the boy comes looking for sweets? Where will the sweets be? [boy´s room]

Look, the boy comes along looking for sweets. He finds them in the top boxand takes them to his room!

Memory 2: Where are the sweets now?

Counterfactual EventBut what, if not the boy but the small girl had come along looking for sweets. Where would the sweets be? [top shelf]

♂

♀

too short

TASK

13

RESULTSRafetseder et al (2010)

And now?

A typical false belief task, e.g. the Maxi task, can be solved by 4 year olds…

15

Story: Peter – a firefighter – feels seek and goes to bed.Sally – his wife – goes to the drug store to get some

medicine.While Sally is away, the sirens sound: fire in the post office.Peter rushes to the post office to help put out the fire.

Test: Counterfactual question: „If there had been no fire, where would Peter be?“

False belief question: „Where does Sally think, Peter is?“

Participants: n = 28; 3;11 – 4;10

Counterfactual Reasoningand False Belief

16Riggs et al. (1998)

Results

r = 0.86, p < 0.01

17

all four correct

more cf correct

none correct

Riggs et al. (1998)

1 cf / 1fb correct

False belief

Counterfactual

Consider!

The counterfactual question of the firefighter task can be solved with „counter to fact“ assumptions.

Any child who understands that the counterfactual question asks a consequence that is different from reality might answer with „home“ – the only other possible answer in the story.

18

If there are two other possibilities…

χ2 (N = 133) = 33.6, p < .001)

Young children can reason hypothetically with counter-to-fact assumptions but no evidence of counterfactual reasoning.

19Rafetseder & Perner (2010)

2 possibilities 1 possibility

Open Question

If we use our „difficult“ CF-scenario and add an FB-question, will the FB-question still be as or more difficult than the CF-question?

20

Developmental Test

motherputs

sweets

bottom shelf

top shelf boy‘s room

girl‘s room

boy comes girl comes

OR

too short

1st Transformation 2nd Transformation

Pilz (2005)

21

Today mother puts sweets into the bottom box.

Look, the girl comes along looking for sweets. She finds them in the bottom boxand takes them to her room! She is wearing boy‘s jacket. Mother thinks it was the boy.

Counterfactual Question:But what, if not the girl but the boy had come along looking for sweets. Where would the sweets be? [boy’s room]

False belief question: Where does the mother think that the sweets are? [boy’s room]

♂

♀

Simple Condition

22

Today mother puts sweets into the top box.

Look, the boy comes along looking for sweets. He finds them in the top boxand takes them to his room! He ducks when he sneaks back to his room. Motherthinks it was the little girl.

Counterfactual Question:But what, if not the boy but the small girl had come along looking for sweets. Where would the sweets be? [top shelf]

False belief question: – „Where does the mother think that the sweets are? [top shelf]

♂

♀

too short

Complex Condition

23

Simple vs. Complex Condition

Complex ConditionSetup: Sweets are on top shelf and boy takes them to his room.Hypothetical reasoningIf little girl comes then, sweets goto her room. [girl‘s room]Counterfactual reasoningSweets were on top shelf. If little girl had come, they would have stayed there. [top shelf]

24

Simple ConditionSetup: Sweets are on bottomshelf and girl takes them to herroom.Hypothetical reasoningIf boy comes then, sweets goto his room. [boy‘s room]Counterfactual reasoningSweets were on bottom shelf. If

boy had come, they would have gone to his room. [boy‘s room]

=

Results

25

Before partialling age out:

Simple: r = 0.48, p< 0.001Complex: r = 0.58, p< 0.001

After partialling age out:

Simple: r = 0.48, p< 0.001Complex: r = 0.49, p< 0.001

Hofer (2010)

Results

26

% of 9;3 – 11;0 year olds

% of 7;0 – 8;10 year olds % of 12;4 – 14;10 year olds

% of adults

complex fb

complex cf

How are cf and fb connected?

27

Simple ConditionSetup: Sweets are on bottom shelf and girl takes them to her room.

She is wearing boy‘s jacket.

False belief of the mother: that it is the boy

Hypothetical reasoning (counter to fact)If boy comes then, sweets go to his room. [boy‘s room]

Counterfactual reasoningIf boy had come, sweets would have gone to his room. [boy‘s room]

How are cf and fb connected?

28

Complex ConditionSetup: Sweets are on top shelf and boy takes them to his room. He

ducks when he sneaks back to his room.

False belief of the mother: that it is the girl

Hypothetical reasoning (counter to fact)If girl comes then, sweets go to her room. [girl ‘s room]

Counterfactual reasoningIf girl had come, sweets would have stayed on top shelf. [top shelf]

Conclusion

Complex Condition- How does the world look from

the perspective of the other person and what can one conclude from that?

Counterfactual reasoning

29

Simple Condition- How does the world look from

the perspective of another person?

Counter to fact reasoning

Thanks to

Christine HoferAndy Fugard

Josef Perner

Louisa Hacking

Sabrina Ecker

Children

Maria Schwitalla