Cover page - PromitheasNet - · Web viewKnowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios (Contract No. 265182) This document is part of the

PROMITHEAS – 4 PROMITHEAS – 4

Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparingKnowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfoliosmitigation/adaptation policy portfolios

(Contract No. 265182)(Contract No. 265182)

Mitigation / Adaptation scenarios andMitigation / Adaptation scenarios and

Climate Change policy portfolios for Climate Change policy portfolios for

RomaniaRomania

Author: Anca BARDICI, Camelia VASILE, Mihaela PISLARU, Irina VODAInstitute for Studies and Power Engineering Bucharest – ISPE SA

Co-authors: Dr. Popi KONIDARI, Anna FLESSA M.Sc., Eleni-Danai MAVRAKI M.Sc.Energy Policy and Development Centre

Bucharest, 2013

PROMITHEAS-4: “Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”

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This document is part of the relevant report prepared for the FP7 funded project “PROMITHEAS-4: Knowledge transfer and research needs for preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”, coordinated by Prof. Dimitrios MAVRAKIS, Energy Policy and Development Centre (Greece). The whole report contains twelve (12) documents for each one of the emerging economies that participate in the project: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine.


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CCONTENTSONTENTSContents.........................................................................................................................5

List of Tables.................................................................................................................6

List of Figures...............................................................................................................6

Abbreviations.................................................................................................................9

Introduction.................................................................................................................11Objectives of the Romanian climate change policy.........................................................11

Spectrum of climate change mitigation options for Romania........................................13

Spectrum of adaptation needs in Romania......................................................................19

References...........................................................................................................................23

Business – As – Usual Scenario (2000 – 2050)..........................................................24BAU Scenario description..................................................................................................24

Key assumptions.................................................................................................................33

Energy Demand..................................................................................................................41

Transformation...................................................................................................................47

Global warming potential (GHG emissions)....................................................................50

References...........................................................................................................................51

Optimistic (OPT) Scenario (2000 – 2050)..................................................................52OPT Scenario description..................................................................................................52

General comments..............................................................................................................52

Policy portfolio for this scenario.......................................................................................52

Main characteristics of this policy portfolio....................................................................58

Key assumptions.................................................................................................................59

Energy Demand..................................................................................................................64

Transformation...................................................................................................................68


References...........................................................................................................................71

Pessimistic (PES) Scenario (2000 – 2050).................................................................72PES Scenario description...................................................................................................72


Policy portfolio for this scenario.......................................................................................72

Main characteristics of this scenario................................................................................74

Key assumptions.................................................................................................................75

Energy Demand..................................................................................................................79

Transformation...................................................................................................................83



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References...........................................................................................................................86

Results of Long – Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP).................87Demand................................................................................................................................87

Transformation...................................................................................................................87

Global warming..................................................................................................................88


Required data.....................................................................................................................89

Assignment of grades.........................................................................................................90

Results..................................................................................................................................99

References..........................................................................................................................101

LLISTIST OFOF T TABLESABLES

Table 1: Romanian climate change policy objectives in accordance to the EU Energy- Climate Change Package._____________________________________________________________________13

Table 2: United Nations projections for the Romanian population (UN, 2010)._______________33Table 3: Projections for the Romanian GDP (Eurostat, 2012)._____________________________34Table 4: The annual quotas of electricity produced from renewable energy sources.___________38Table 5: The average electricity price for households.____________________________________41Table 6: The evolution of the energy import dependence._________________________________48Table 7: United Nations projections for the Romanian population (UN, 2010)._______________59Table 8: GDP evolution in Opt – Annual percent change (%)._____________________________59Table 9: United Nations projections for the Romanian population (UN, 2010)._______________75Table 10: Total emissions for the country.______________________________________________89Table 11: Emissions per sector for the country._________________________________________89Table 12: Other environmental effects for the country under each scenario._________________90Table 13: Water Use._______________________________________________________________90Table 14: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the policy instruments of the BAU scenario._92Table 15: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the selected policy instruments.____________93Table 16: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the selected policy instruments.____________95Table 17: Overall cost efficiency for the three scenarios.____________________________________97

LLISTIST OFOF F FIGURESIGURES

Figure 1: Demographics: Population.____________________________________________________33Figure 2: Economy: GDP real._______________________________________________________34Figure 3: GDP distribution per sector._________________________________________________35Figure 4: Average annual household income.___________________________________________35Figure 5: Land management._________________________________________________________40Figure 6: Households' energy demand._________________________________________________42Figure 7: Agriculture’s energy demand.________________________________________________43Figure 8: Industry’s total energy demand.______________________________________________44Figure 9 : Industry’s total fuels demand._______________________________________________44Figure 10: Services’ total fuel demand.________________________________________________45Figure 11: Final Energy Demand in Transport sector per fuel._____________________________46Figure 12: The evolution of T&D losses.________________________________________________47Figure 13: Evolution of electricity generation by fuel type.________________________________48


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Figure 14: The evolution of Oil refining sector.__________________________________________49Figure 15: GHG emissions per sector._________________________________________________50Figure 16: Demographics: Population._________________________________________________59Figure 17: Economy: GDP real.______________________________________________________60Figure 18: GDP distribution per sector.________________________________________________61Figure 19: Average annual household income.__________________________________________61Figure 20: Land management.________________________________________________________62Figure 21: Households' energy demand.________________________________________________64Figure 22: Agriculture’s energy demand._______________________________________________65Figure 23: Industry’s total fuels demand.______________________________________________65Figure 24: Services’ total fuels demand.________________________________________________66Figure 25: Final Energy Demand in Transport sector per fuel._____________________________67Figure 26: The evolution of T&D losses.________________________________________________68Figure 27: Evolution of electricity production by fuel types._______________________________69Figure 28: The evolution of GHG emissions per sector.___________________________________70Figure 29: Demographics: Population._________________________________________________75Figure 30: Economy: GDP real.______________________________________________________76Figure 31: GDP distribution per sector.________________________________________________77Figure 32: Average annual household income.__________________________________________77Figure 33: Households' energy demand.________________________________________________79Figure 34: Agriculture’s energy demand._______________________________________________80Figure 35: Industry’s total fuels demand.______________________________________________80Figure 36: Services’ total fuels demand.________________________________________________81Figure 37: Final Energy Demand in Transport sector per fuel._____________________________82Figure 38: The evolution of T&D losses.________________________________________________83Figure 39: Evolution of electricity generation by fuel type.________________________________84Figure 40: GHG emissions per sector._________________________________________________85Figure 41: The evolution of the energy demand for the three analysed scenarios._____________87Figure 42: The evolution of the electricity generation sector for the three analysed scenarios.___87Figure 43: The evolution of the GHG emissions for the three analysed scenarios._________________88


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AABBREVIATIONSBBREVIATIONSAbbreviation Full nameAAU Assigned Amount UnitANRE Romanian Energy Regulatory AuthorityANPM National Environmental Protection AgencyBAU Business As UsualCCS Carbon Capture and Storage CER Certified Emission ReductionsCHP Combined Heat and PowerEC European CommissionEOR Enhanced Oil RecoveryERU Emission Reduction UnitESCO Energy Service COmpaniesEUA European AllowanceEU - ETS European Union Emission Trading SchemeEU European UnionGC Green CertificateGEO Government Emergency OrdinanceGD Government DecisionGDP Gross Domestic ProductGHG Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGIS Green Investment SchemeGWh GigawatthourIMF International Monetary FundISPE Institute for Studies and Power EngineeringJI Joint ImplementationLCP Large Combustion PlantLEAP Long-range Energy Alternatives PlanningMEF Ministry of Environment and ForestsMW MegawattsNAP National Allocation PlanNAPEE National Action Plan on Energy EfficiencyNER New Entrance ReserveNC National CommunicationNIP National Investment PlanNPP Nuclear Power PlantsNREAP National Renewable Energy Action PlanOPCOM Commercial Operator of Romanian Electricity MarketOPT OptimisticPES PessimisticPI Policy InstrumentPM Policy MixesRES Renewable Energy SourcesRES-e Electricity produced by RESROBOR Romanian Interbank Offer Rate STI State Construction InspectorateT&D Transmission and DistributionTOE Tons oil equivalentUN United NationsUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change


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IINTRODUCTIONNTRODUCTION

Objectives of the Romanian climate change policyObjectives of the Romanian climate change policyRomania signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) in 1992, ratified it by Law no. 24/1994, and was included in the Annex I as a country with economy in transition. Romania signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1999 and became the first Annex I Party to ratify it by Law no. 3/2001. The target adopted by Romania is 8% reduction in GHG emissions for the first commitment period 2008-2012, compared to a different – with the other Annex B countries - base year (1989) [1]. In order to achieve the Kyoto Protocol requirements the following strategies were approved:

- The “Strategy for Using Renewable Energy Sources” approved by GD 1535/2003 set specific medium and long term objectives as follows:

for the period 2003-2010: commissioning of new units with a total installed capacity of approximately 441,5 MW (electric energy), and 3274,64 thousand toe (thermal energy);

for the period 2011 – 2015: installation with a total capacity of 789,0 MW (electric energy), and 3527,7 thousand toe (thermal energy).

for energy production obtained from RES, the Strategy set the following quantitative objectives:

o for 2010: 19,65 TWh (electric energy) and 3274,64 thousand toe (thermal energy);

o for 2015: 23,37 TWh (electric energy) and 3527,7 thousand toe (thermal energy).

The Strategy established as targets shares of RES-E within the production of electric energy of approximately 30,0% in 2010, respectively 30,4% in 2015. These targets have been subsequently changed upwards, the present values being of 33% for 2010, 35% for 2015 and 38% for 2020 [2].

- The “National energy efficiency strategy” was approved by GD 163/12.02.2004 [3] exclusively concerning the increase of energy efficiency in the final consumption sectors (industry, residential sector, tertiary sector, agriculture, transportation), as well as the district heating supply. The time horizon of the strategy is 2015. This document shows the following sectorial targets on the annual reductions of the primary energy consumption in :

industrial sector: 337 thousand toe;

residential sector: 823 thousand toe;

transport: 303 thousand toe;

tertiary sector: 48 thousand toe;

district heating supply sector: 612 thousand toe.

The strategy thus assesses the annual reduction of the primary energy consumption by 2122 thousand toe. This shall lead at the end of the 2004 - 2015 period to acquiring the reduction of the primary energy annual consumption by approx. 25,4 million toe. For the entire 2004 - 2015 period, the result is a cumulated saving of approx. 132 million toe.

- The “National Strategy for flood risk management in the medium and long term” was approved by the GD 846/2010 - Official Journal no. 626/6.09.20101. Given the

1 Romanian Government - GD 846/2010 - Official Journal no. 626/6.09.2010 available at: http://www.legex.ro/Hotararea-846-2010-107070.aspx


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consequences of the floods this strategy aims to define the framework for guiding all actions to prevent and reduce flood consequences on socio-economic activities, life and human health and the environment.

The strategy sets targets and key actions for implementation. Some targets of this strategy by 2035 can be quantified, but others not. Concerning quantifiable targets, the strategy aims to:

The gradual reduction of potential flood areas with a overflow probability of 1% to 61% compared to 2006, with compensatory measures required to retain adequate volumes of water;

the reduction of potential flood risk from floods with the overflow probability of 1% to about 62% compared to 2006;

reduce to 50% the social vulnerability of the communities exposed to flood within 10 years and to 75% in the long term, in 30 years.

gradual reduction of the flood damage infrastructures crossing watercourses by 80% until 2035 compared to 2006;

the rehabilitation in areas with high vulnerability / annual relocation of at least 400 km of flood protection embankments;

increasing transport capacity of minor beds of major rivers at least 30% by 2035;

work planning regarding the bed arrangement in all basins and sub-basins slope basins;

changing operating regulations reservoirs with multiple uses;

annual rehabilitation of 20 km of derivatives waters;

rehabilitation under the Action Plan until 2035, at least 80% of dams and reservoirs with important role in mitigating floods;

50% reduction in areas with strong erosion and excessive by 2035 - catchment reforestation measures will be implemented to reduce leakage as well as soil conservation, forest and 50000 ha.

Since January 1st 2007 Romania is a member of the European Union and its energy policy takes into account the EU requirements. The post - accession development objectives are linked to European approaches. All policies and development strategies have been elaborated and implemented in compliance with the harmonization of the EU policies, plans and programmes in order to sustain the integration process. Reducing GHG emissions is a priority objective of Europe 2020 Strategy, which was adopted by the European Council on 25-26 March 2010. Its objectives are:

a 20% reduction of GHG emissions at EU level at least compared to 1990 level;

a 20% increase in the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in total EU energy consumption;

a 20% reduction in primary energy consumption and the increasing energy efficiency.

Romania initiated and completed the process of setting new national targets for all objectives of the strategy, which was validated by the High Level Working Group on 8 June 2010 and resulted in the signing by the Romanian Government's Memorandum "Approval of values Romania's objectives for the final of Europe 2020." Agreed national objectives related to implementation of the Energy Package - climate change, congruent with the commitments of the European Commission are presented in Table 1 [4].


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Table 1: Romanian climate change policy objectives in accordance to the EU Energy- Climate Change Package.

2020 Objectives EU 27 (%) Objectives for Romania (%)

Reducing GHG emissions 20 20Share of energy from RES in gross final consumption

20 24

Increasing energy efficiency 20 19(estimated at about 10 Mtoe)

According to the National Renewable Energy Action Plan the corresponding sectorial targets for achieving the 24% in Table 1, are: i) 42,62% penetration of electricity produced by RES (RES-e) until 2020; ii) 22,05% RES share to the total consumption for heating and cooling and iii) 10% share of renewable energy in transport.

At the National Sustainable Development Strategy, Romania 2013-2020-2030, that was published in 2008, the country has set an intermediate target of reaching 13,5% reduction in final energy consumption for the time interval 2008-2016 compared to the average consumption levels of the time period 2001- 2005, in conformity with the first National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency 2007-2010.

Spectrum of climate change mitigation options for RomaniaSpectrum of climate change mitigation options for RomaniaThe total GHG emissions in 2010, excluding removals by sinks, amounted to

121645,37 Gg CO2 equivalents. The total GHGs emissions (without considering sinks) decreased with 57,46% in 2010 in comparison to 1989 while the net GHG emissions/removals (taking into account the CO2 removals) decreased with 63,77%. Based on these observations, there is a great probability for Romania to meet the commitments to reduce the GHG emissions in the first commitment, 2008-2012 [5].

According to the last National Inventory Report energy represents the most important sector that generates GHG emissions in Romania. It accounted for 70,97% of the total national GHG emissions in 2010. The GHG emissions of the energy sector decreased by 57,92% compared with the base year [5].

In Romania the electricity is produced both in power plants operating with coal and oil, as well as hydropower plants, nuclear power plants and plants that use renewable sources. The share of electricity produced by burning fossil fuels, was during 2009 - 2010 respectively of 52,5% and 47,2% of total electricity. For the same period, the share of electricity from coal was 37,45% and 33,9% [6].

About 80% of thermal power units were installed in Romania during 1970-1980, currently having passed their standard lifetime of service. The thermal power units are operating with 1960-1970 years technologies and have low performances around 30% - unless rehabilitated coal groups, reaching 33% [7]. This efficiency is 65-70% of modern groups, which currently operate in most European developed countries. All thermal power plants that will operate after 2014 must be within the EU environmental standards on emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and dust.

Also over 30% of installed capacity in hydro power units has a lifetime between 25 and 45 years.

Given the current situation investments are required in retrofitting, upgrading of the existing installations and also new installations in fossil fuel power plants, for meeting the requirements of efficiency and environment. For the demand side during the period 2000 - 2010 the following can be noticed:


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The final electricity consumption increased continuously, from 32735 GWh in 2000 to 37605 GWh in 2009 and to 41317 GWh in 2010 [6];

The processing industry has the main share in the final electricity consumption (52,6% in 2008 and 47,8% in 2010). This share was practically constantly maintained during the time interval analyzed until 2008 (in 2001 having the value of 53,3%, and in 2004 reached 62,1%), and in 2009 decreased to 45,8% [6];

The ever higher increase in the final electricity consumption was recorded in the services sector, as the share grew from 8,3% in 2000 to almost 18,3% in 2010 [6];

At the same time the value of the final electricity consumption grew in the domestic sector, but the share practically remained constant until 2008 (about 25%) an increase of over 27% in 2010 [6].

Regarding the evolution of the final energy consumption and primary energy intensity during the 2000 – 2010 period the following are observed:

Final energy consumption increased continuously from 22,165 million toe in 2000 to 27,332 million toe in 2004, remained virtually constant at about 25 million toe during 2005-2008 and then decreased reaching a value of 22,739 million toe in 2010 [6];

Final energy consumption in the service sector increased during 2000-2006 due to increased activity in this sector and decreased in 2007-2008 due to increasing energy efficiency programs and in 2009-2010 due to economic crisis [6];

The final energy consumption share decreased dramatically in agriculture and silviculture. The share was 1,9% in 2000, and in 2010 reached only 1,6%. The decrease was due mainly to the decrease in the activity in this field [6].

The evolution of the final energy consumption during 2000 – 2010 period proves that in 2010 the main energy consumer is the domestic sector followed by industry and transport sectors. During the 2000 – 2008 period industry was the main energy source consumer [6].

Taking into account the objectives of the Romanian Government's energy strategy, namely energy security, sustainable development and competitiveness it can be noticed that the following actions are needed for the energy sector development for the next years [7]:

increasing of energy efficiency along the entire chain: resources – production – transport – distribution – consumption because Romania can no longer afford to waste energy while the availability of energy sources decreases and their cost rises. Energy efficiency is the most profitable method of reducing emissions, improving security and competitivity and decreasing the energy service bill;

diversification of energy resources having in view the import dependence of Romania. The natural gas reserves recently discovered on the continental side of Black Sea can substantially increase the independence of Romania's from the gas imported from Russia and to ensure the production for more than 20 years;

promotion of RES utilisation by exploring the existing potential and taking into consideration the support scheme for these energy sources;

promoting power and heat production in cogeneration plants, especially in high efficiency cogeneration installations;

the continuation of the nuclear development. It is expected that until 2020 another 2 units of NPP Cernavoda to be put in operation (with about 1400 MW installed capacity both)2;

attracting of the required investments for installing the needed new electricity generation capacity during the period 2011 – 2035 (about 17300 MW gross installed capacity, including RES capacity) of about 38 billion Euro [7].

2 http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/strategia_energetica_20112035_20042011.pdf


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Having in view the objectives of Romania regarding its climate policy and the needs of the energy sector development the most suitable mitigation options for the country are the following:

Exploitation of RESThe energy potential of RES in Romania is estimated at 14718 ktoe [2]. This potential

does not take into account the economic, environmental and market restrictions. In order to reach the target (24%) established by Directive 2009/28/EC for 2020, Romania shall use 50% of the value of this potential which will imply a consistent investment effort.

Biomass

Romania has significant biomass potential, which is estimated at 88000 GWh per year [11]. In 2004, approximately 43% of the biomass potential in the country was exploited and entirety used for heat production. Heat generated from wood biomass was approximately 54%, and heat generated by agricultural biomass was about 46% [11].

Direct burning in the kilns, stoves for space heating, cooking and hot water preparation is about 95% of the biomass use [1]. These furnaces have a nominal capacity between 0,8 kW to 4 kW and are hand stocked and with an average efficiency between 15 to 50%. Burning in thermal plants to generate industrial steam and hot water in sawmills and in other industries equals about 5% of biomass usage. In sawmills, the average installed capacity is 3,3 MW and in other industries 4,7 MW [1]

The biomass sector in Romania is characterized by a twofold regional distribution about 90% of fuel wood and 55% of wood waste were found in the Carpathians and Sub Carpathians. About 54% of agricultural wastes are found in the South Plain and Moldavia. About 52% of biogas is found in the South Plain and the Western Plains [1]. Large amounts of small-sized wood is obtained in wood industry, but utilization of this wood for energy purposes is insufficient due to difficulties related to gathering, processing and transportation. Studies show that these wood wastes are economically viable resources.

Hydropower

The installed capacity of hydropower represents nearly 30% of Romania’s total installed electricity generating capacity. Romania has a hydro technical potential of 36 TWh, out of which 46% is harnessed.

In the year 2011 the electricity produced in hydropower plants was about 14,71 TWh [8]. This production represented about 7% of the electricity production in hydropower plants of the European Union in 2011, Romania being on the 7th place in the hierarchy of countries using this resource along with Sweden, France, Italy, Austria, Germany and Finland [9].

Solar

The average solar radiation in Romania ranges from 1,100 to 1,300 kWh/m2 per year for more than half of the country surface [1]. Some small photovoltaic farms (less than 1 MW) are announced and will be installed in the southern part of Romania on short to medium term.

Romania exploited a significant amount of solar resources in the past especially in terms of solar thermal. This type of applications has started to be used again, after about 20 years of being blocked. The potential market for solar applications is very large; specific incentives will be needed in order for this potential to be realized.

The use of solar thermal may also contribute to the decrease of GHG emissions in the energy (heating and warm water production) sector. Depending on the provenience of the equipment, the emissions from industry may slightly increase as a consequence of the development of the branches producing the equipment.

Wind


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In terms of renewable energy Romania has the highest wind potential in South Eastern Europe of 14000 MW, and investors already have connection requests of over 12000 MW. At the end of 2011 the installed capacity in wind power plants in Romania was 1140 MW [10], up from 14,1 MW installed capacity in 2009 [4]. The following companies have installed wind farms in Romania: EDP, CEZ AS, EON, Iberdrola SA and ENEL SA. The wind potential is estimated at approximately 8400 GWh/year with 8000 MW of installed capacity in 2020 [2].

The Romanian wind atlas indicates wind speeds of 4,5 to 11,5 m/s at 50m height in various areas of the country, notably off-shore. Highest measured wind speed is at Călimani at an altitude of 2022 m, with an annual average of 10,3 m/s at 10 m above ground. Depending on the development rate of the projects and on the weather conditions (the trend of decrease of wind speed in Romania), the wind farms may have a significant contribution to the decrease of GHG emissions from the electricity sector in the following decade [1].

Geothermal

The exploration and research for geothermal resources began in 1962, and over 200 wells have been drilled, proving the existence of low enthalpy geothermal resources with temperatures of 40-120°C. At present about 137 MW t are used from about 60 active wells producing hot water in the temperature range of 55-115 °C [1].

Romania has the third highest geothermal potential of European nations, with major potential locations on the Western Plain, South Plains, Bucharest region, and in the Carpathian regions. Romania’s highest enthalpy geothermal resource of 200°C was identified at Tuşnad-Bai. Five sites have a temperature over 100°C [1].

Energy efficiencyIn order to reduce energy intensity in the high energy consumption sectors and in order to

meet the targets proposed both in the “National energy efficiency strategy” and in the “National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency - NAPEE” afferent to Directive 2006/32 /EC on the end-user efficiency, measures shall be taken in the following directions [12]:

Energy sector

- Closing the production facilities - The closing of production facilities depending on their real operating life registered and their degree of wear shall contribute to the reduction of the primary energy consumption rate as these units will be replaced with modern units with higher outputs. By the end of 2020, units with a total installed power of 5544 MW must be closed, of which 2340 MW in combined power and heat units.

- Upgrading several units of the existing thermal power plants - The conducted technical-economic studies justified the upgrading of some units of the existing thermal power plants park depending on their technical state. This will lead to an increase of efficiency and to the extension of the operating life;

- Building new, modern, coal-fired thermal power units - it is estimated that, in this decade, private investors will build new thermal power units with an installed power of 2000 MW and this will ensure primary energy savings in 2020 of approx. 60 th. toe [12];

- Internal plans for thermal power plants - the total estimated savings for the end of 2020 are 20 th. toe [12];

- Promotion of high efficiency cogeneration - Promotion of high efficiency cogeneration represents a key measure in reducing primary energy consumption;


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- Reengineering/upgrading of district heat supply systems - The national “Heating Programme, heat and comfort 2006 - 2015” was approved by G.D. 462/2006 with further amendments. The programme has two components:

the rehabilitation of the district heating system; the thermal rehabilitation of buildings.

An energy saving of 1,733 GWh/0.15 th. toe) was achieved in the year 2010 and for the year 2016, a saving of 10,398 GWh (0,89 th.toe) is estimated [12].

- Production of electricity from renewable sources of energy; Energy savings of 1406 th. toe in 2015 and 1883 th. toe are estimated [12].

- Reduction of losses in power transmission grids -The achievement of improvements in power transmission grids will lead to 73 GWh (6,3 th. toe) energy saving in 2016, which means 17,8 million toe of primary energy [12].

- Reduction of energy distribution grid losses - It is estimated that the measures taken by distribution operators will lead to a reduction of power grid losses with 94 GWh in 2020 compared to 2010, which means a primary energy saving of approx. 8,1 th. toe [12].

- Reduction of losses in heat transmission and distribution grids. It is estimated that the “National Heating Programme - heat and comfort 2006-2015” will be re-launched leading to at least 329 th. toe/year saving potential [12].

Residential Building Sector- retrofitting the enclosure through the thermal retrofitting of buildings, providing

financial support for owners with low financial income for the performance of the retrofitting works;

- increasing the efficiency of the current heating subsystems;- increasing the efficiency of the lighting fixtures, the use of low consumption lamps;- the compulsory requirement of enforcing the provisions of the directive and the

European standards on efficiency for new buildings;- improving energy efficiency by supporting funding under the European Union funds;- continuing the metering of heating at end-users;- carrying out a national program on the energy education of the population in schools

and the media to save energy, for environmental protection and the local use of RES;- stimulating the operation of Energy Service COmpanies (ESCO).

Public and commercial services sector- increasing efficiency and reducing the consumption of public lighting;- increasing efficiency and reducing the consumption of water supply subsystems;- increasing energy efficiency in public buildings.

Industrial sector- information campaigns;- long term voluntary agreements in various sectors of the processing industry;- energy audits and efficient energy management;- improving energy efficiency by supporting financing through the funds of the

European Union.

Transport sector- reducing energy consumption through projects on upgrading passenger and goods

rail/road transport;


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- increasing the quality of public transportation, for the use thereof in the detriment of transport by private vehicles;

- expanding public transportation through new routes;- increasing the efficiency of traffic and parking;- means of public transportation for employees, ensured by the beneficiary economic

companies;- a larger development of means of transportation on tracks within urban transportation

(trams, trolleys);- increasing the energy efficiency of vehicles by establishing minimum efficiency

criteria;- introducing normative acts supporting the most efficient and clean vehicles;- using gaseous fuels and biofuels in transport.

Fuel switchMost of the fuel switch options refer to:- substitution of the fossil fuels in existing district heating schemes (wood chips); - enhanced uses of biomass as industrial fuel (wood chips and logs as industrial

fuel for steam or hot water boilers) instead of oil improved uses of biomass for new district heating schemes for small towns and villages near the resources, in the countryside, where the population has no access to central co-generation or gas supply;

- renewable energy sources use for electricity production;- biogas capture for electricity generation;- biofuels in the transport sector.

Mitigation through JI

Romania as an Annex I party is eligible for Joint Implementation projects (JI). The country applies the JI mechanism as host country starting from year 2000. Many of the approved projects are developed at local authorities’ level and aim at the use of RES – sawdust, geothermal energy. Such investments have a positive impact not only by the reduction of GHG emissions but also on the environment in general or from social point of view.

Romania signed 10 Memoranda of Understanding, following the conclusion of other such agreements with other developed countries. To date, out of the 16 investment projects of Joint Implementation - JI type undergoing different stages of development, 6 projects of JI type aim at promoting renewable energies [2].

As priority areas for JI projects in Romania is identified by the Ministry of Environment and Forests [13]:

- Increase of energy efficiency in main economic sectors;

- Rehabilitation of district heating systems;

- Construction (or rehabilitation) of co-generation installations;

- Recovery of methane generated by urban waste landfills;

- Fuel-switching in energy productive installations;

- Construction (or rehabilitation) of energy production installations creating clean energy (especially hydro-electric, geothermal, wind, solar, biogas or biomass);

- Reducing GHG emissions in the agriculture sector;


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- Reducing GHG emissions in the transports sector;

- Afforestation and/or reforestation.

Mitigation through EU ETS

Due to the fact that thermal installations rated > 20 MWth are covered by Directive 2003/87/EC concerning the establishment of a scheme for trading greenhouse gas emissions (implemented in Romania by GD no.780/2006), most sources of energy powered by fossil fuels are included in this scheme.

If for the period 2008 - 2012, according to EU-ETS regulations, the economic operators will purchase only a percentage of the amount of emissions generated, properly deficit to receive free allocation of National Allocation Plan in the period 2013 - 2020 the economic operators will have to buy in international tenders, a number of certificates corresponding to the total amount of CO2 emissions generated [14].

Mitigation through GIS

No specific priorities.

Other mitigation optionsNone.

Spectrum of adaptation needs in RomaniaSpectrum of adaptation needs in RomaniaThe changes in the Romanian climate regime are framed within the global context,

considering the regional conditions: the temperature increase will be more pronounced during the summer, while in north-western Europe the most pronounced temperature increase is expected in winter [5]. According to the 5th National Communication of Romania to UNFCCC in 2010, the sectors that are expected to be affected by climate change are: biodiversity, agriculture, water resources, forests, infrastructure (represented by buildings and constructions), tourism, energy, industry, transport, health and recreational activities.

Climate variability in Romania will have direct effects on agriculture, forestry, water management, residential and infrastructure. These effects will lead to changes in the vegetation cycle and to movement of the demarcation lines between forests and meadows, will determine the increase of the frequency and of the intensity of the extreme meteorological events (storms, floods, droughts). Economic national sectors such as food industry, woodworking, textile industry, the production of biomass and renewable energy will be also affected indirectly.

From all these sectors four have strong interactions between them and their adaptation needs are linked with mitigation options. These sectors are: energy, agricultural, forests and water resources.

A. Energy sector The increase of the winter temperatures shall lead to a decrease with 6% - 8% of the

energy for heating, during the period 2021 - 2050. In exchange, up to 2030, the energy consumption during the summer could increase with 28%, because of the high temperatures [4].

Problems may occur in the energy sector especially during the production of hydropower plants, taking into account the fact that the Southern and the South-eastern Europe and, implicitly, Romania is more exposed to the risk of drought. The decrease of the water resources also affects the performance of the cooling systems of the nuclear plants.

The decrease of the hydropower production was already felt in Romania when, due to the significant decrease of the precipitation level, during 2003, 2007, 2009 and 2011 minimum values were historically reached. Particularly during the last three years, electricity production from hydro power plants decreased from about 15,516 TWh in 2009 at 14,710 TWh in 2011


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(by comparison the electricity produced in an average hydrological year is about 17,464 TWh) [8].

Recommendations and adaptation needs for energy sector are [15]:

- urgent elaboration of studies on the risk assessment concerning the climate change effects for the energy sector generally, and especially, in the risk assessment for the hydroelectric sector taking into consideration the following situations:

a) climate changes will modify the seasonal demand of electricity which will be lower during the winter and higher during the summer;

b) climate changes may also generate a reduction of the hydroelectric power by the decrease of the water resources;

c) the decrease of the water resources also affects the performance of the cooling systems of the nuclear plants.

- determination of the critical infrastructure in the energy system in order to define measures required in case of extreme weather phenomena;

- conduction of researches and studies concerning the possible evolution of energy consumption because of the higher temperatures and of the extreme phenomena;

- promotion of the energy production from renewable sources;- elaboration of strategies by the local public administration authorities in order to use

energy sources which should comply with the European environment and efficiency norms, in order to produce electricity and heat, in centralized systems.

B. Agricultural sectorIn 2010 Romania had an agricultural area of 14,635 million hectares (ha), including

9,405 million ha arable land, 3,288 million ha pastures, 1,529 million ha hayfields, 0,213 million ha vineyards and vine nurseries and 0,199 million ha orchards and tree nurseries [16]. So agricultural area by use was 64,3% arable land, 22,5% pastures, 10,4% hayfields and 2,8% vineyards and orchards. A research performed in 2008 revealed that 6,8 million ha are not used.

According to tradition, Romanian owners have been dividing their property into equal shares between their heirs. Today, a multitude of small surfaces ranging between 0,1 ha and 10 ha results from so many divisions, generation after generation. Larger surfaces are quite rare. From total agricultural holdings in 2007 only 9608 had more than 100 ha and about 3477612 had agricultural area in use between 0,1 and 10 ha.

In 2010 agricultural area irrigated from systems managed by the National Administration for Land Arrangements was of 83 thousand ha, private ownership. For the irrigation systems it is necessary to take measures for the decrease of water losses and the introducing the efficient sprinkler systems.

The modernization of farms will lead to better animal breeding. In these conditions the specific electricity consumption per ton of meat produced will decrease. Energy intensity in agriculture is expected to decrease through the modernization of buildings, heating, sprinkling systems etc.

This sector will be affected by climate change impacts in precipitation, temperature and extreme events. Less precipitation and higher annual average temperatures will affect the agricultural and animal production.

Adaptation needs for this sector are [15]:- selection of the cultivated species by correlation of the local environment conditions

(drought, humidity excess, high temperatures, cold / frost etc.);- crops management and the rational use of the field; - cultivation of a greater number of species/genotypes, respectively varieties/hybrids, for a

better exploitation of the climate conditions, especially the humidity conditions and the agricultural works lagging;


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- choice of genotypes resistant to the vegetation limitative conditions, with a high tolerance to "broil", drought and humidity excess;

- at the level of the farms, crop rotation and determination of a crop structure that should include at least three groups of plants, respectively straw cereals 33%, technical plants 33% and legumes 33% is recommended;

- organization of crop rotations with green fertilizers, in order to improve the physical, chemical and biologic properties of the degraded soils.

C. Forestry sectorThe forested surface in Romania is relatively low, compared to other EU Member States

with similar climate and relief conditions. The stock of wood of Romania occupies in 2010 a surface of 6427 thousand hectares, out of which 6272 thousand hectares are covered with forests, and the rest of 155 thousand hectares represents surfaces intended for the forest crop, production and administration. Forests occupy 26,7% of the country territory, with an uneven distribution. Thus, 60% of the forests are located into the Carpathian region, 29% in the pre-Carpathian hills and 11% on the plane, the most deforested being the Western Plain (3,2%), Baraganului Plain (3,5%), Moldova Plain (4,1%) and Oltenitei Plain (5,3%). Since 2005, wide afforestation programmes were started, estimating an extension of the surface occupied with forest vegetation with about 60000 ha, prevalently into the counties in which the forests occupy a minimum surface [15].

The reduced percentages of forest in the plain areas are correlated with frequent and long droughts, such as the deforestation in the elevation and hill area, as well as the massive cuts in some mountain forests are correlated with torrent phenomena, land degradation and earth slides. These phenomena have been accentuated by certain social and legal difficulties and of the lack of the institutional and financial capacity to a great part of the forest and land owners. The investments in this field were low or even insignificant

The adaptation needs for the forestry sector are [15]:

- identification of the breeds, tolerant species, the testing of new species/more tolerant breeds to hydric stress in the air or soil and/or tolerant to high temperatures, long or temporary, early or autumn, tolerant to the late frosts;

- encouragement of the development of demonstration activities of the research results by the users by the significant improvement of the capacity of public consultancy services and the support of the researches;

- performance and the promotion of the guides of good practice in the forest field, which should provide the resilience of the forests to the climate change effects, adapted to the needs of the private property/state and the principles of sustainable administration;

- increase of the standing wood surface, by the afforestation of certain degraded fields and of certain marginal fields, not proper for an efficient agriculture, as well as through the creation of forest shelter-belts for the agricultural fields, of the watercourses and of the communication ways, for the anti-erosion protection of slopes;

- promotion of the energetic crops and the use of the waste forest biomass resources;

- adoption of certain protection measures of the standing crop integrity, by forbidding the exchange of land use of the fields covered with forests and with other forms of forest vegetation;

- proper improvement of the territory, taking into account the actual and possible effects of the climate change;

- increase of the capacity of the forest institutions of management, control, assistance and regional coordination.

D. Water resources


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The total water resources in the internal rivers, gathered in 15 wide drainage areas, represent a multiannual average of about 40000 million m3. The Danube can be added to them, which has when entering the country a water supply of 175000 million m3, and 97,8% of the hydrographical system of Romania is gathered into the basin of the Danube river.

On the Romanian territory there are in service a number of about 400 important basins which lead to a total available volume of 6300 million m3. The socio-economic resource of underground water which is of 850 million m3 has to be added to this volume and therefore the total socio-economic resource is of 7150 million m3.

A very important feature of the surface water resources in Romania is represented by the pronounced variability of the hydrologic conditions from one year to another. Therefore, during the period 1881-2000, since there are systematic observations on the weather and water, four important dry periods were recorded in Romania (1894-1905, 1918-1920, 1942-1953, 1982-2000), three rainy periods (1881-1893, 1931-1941, 1969-1981) and two normal periods (1906-1917, 1954-1968). The last dry period was manifested especially in the South and the East of the country. The length of the dry periods rose from 12-13 years, in the past, to 22 years during the period 1982-2003 due to the climate change.

Romania was confronted during the last period with extreme phenomena:

in 2005 – historical floods on the internal rivers, which have led to the loss of 76 human lives and material damages in value of 6 billion lei;

in 2006 – historical floods of the Romanian sector of the Danube river, which have led to material damages in value of 746 million lei;

in 2007 – the most serious drought for the last 60 years.

The adaptation needs for the water resources sector are [15]:

- performance of the maps regarding the hazard and flood risk on the great hydrographic basins under the coordination of MEF and the particularization by the local administration of the flood risk maps at the level of the localities, with priority in the areas with high risk, identified on the maps performed at the level of the hydrographic basins;

- adoption of certain normative acts to place the constructions on the flooded areas;

- adoption of certain normative acts to build the objectives with moderate flood risk, which should ensure on the one hand their safety to more intense events occurred as a result of the climate change;

- development of new studies necessary for the foundation of the adaptation measures in the field of water resources assessment;

- reassessment of the water resources on hydrographic basins and sub-basins under the circumstances of climate change;

- water need assessment for the main crops in Romania under the circumstances of the climate change;

- efficiency improvement for the water used in irrigation;

- water need assessment for the main utilities (drinking water supply, industrial water, water for zootechnics, pisciculture, etc.) under the circumstances of the climate change.


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ReferencesReferences1. Ministry of Environment and Forest of Romania, 2010. 5th National Communication of

Romania, available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rou_nc5_resbmit.pdf2. Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business Environment, “National Renewable Energy Action

Plan 2010”, available at: http://www.ebb-eu.org/legis/ActionPlanDirective2009_28/national_renewable_energy_action_plan_romania_en.pdf (English version) and at: http://www.minind.ro/pnaer/PNAER_29%20iunie_2010_final_Alx.pdf (Romanian version)

3. GD 163/12.02.2004 approving the National energy efficiency strategy was published in Official Gazette of Romania, part I, no. 160/24.02.2004. The strategy is an annex to GD 165/2004 and it was subsequently published in the Official Gazette of Romania, part I, no. 160 bis;

4. ISPE, 2011. Promitheas 4 Report - Overview of the Mitigation/Adaptation Policy Instruments in Romania, available at: http://www.promitheasnet.kepa.uoa.gr/Promitheas4/images/library/3.2/wp3.2romania.pdf

5. Ministry of Environment and Forests & National Environmental Protection Agency, 2012. Romania’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1989-2010, National Inventory Report, v.1.2, March 2012, available at http://www.anpm.ro/upload/63481_NIR-NGHGI%202012%20v.%201.2.pdf

6. National Institute of Statistics- Energy Balance and Energy Equipment Structure, Collections 2000 – 2011 (available only in hard copy);

7. Energy Strategy for the period 2011 –2035 (document in discussion on the Ministry of Economy and Business Environment), available at: http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/strategia_energetica_20112035_20042011.pdf

8. Hidroelectrica web site - available at: http://www.hidroelectrica.ro/showData.aspx?type=download&doc=Raportul_administratorului_special.pdf

9. Eurostat - http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/energy/data/database and ISPE calculations

10. Transelectrica web site: www.transelectrica.ro11. EBRD, 2009. Romania – Country Profile, available at:

http://ws2-23.myloadspring.com/sites/renew/Shared%20Documents/2009%20Country%20Profiles/Romania.pdf

12. National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/efficiency/end-use_en.htm

13. Ministry of Environment and Forests, 2012. Information about Romanian JI projects (only in Romanian language). available at: http://www.mmediu.ro/beta/domenii/schimbari-climatice/proiecte-ji/ (August, 16, 2012);

14. Romanian Government - GD 780/2006 regarding the establishment the GHG emissions trading scheme, amended by GD 133/2010, Official Journal no. 554 / 2006, available at: http://www.mmediu.ro/protectia_mediului/schimbari_climatice/7_EU-ETS/HG%20780_2006_compilat02.11.pdf

15. Ministry of Environment and Forests – Ministerial Order 1170/2008 - Guide on the adaptation to the climate change effects, available at: http://www.mmediu.ro/protectia_mediului/schimbari_climatice/4_Adaptarea/GHIDUL-PRIVIND-ADAPTAREA-LA-EFECTELE-SC_EN.doc#_Toc241487057

16. National Institute of Statistics, “Romanian Statistical Yearbook, Collections” – 2005 – 2012 (available only in hard copy).


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http://www.mmediu.ro/protectia_mediului/schimbari_climatice/4_Adaptarea/GHIDUL-PRIVIND-ADAPTAREA-LA-EFECTELE-SC_EN.doc#_Toc241487057

http://www.mmediu.ro/protectia_mediului/schimbari_climatice/4_Adaptarea/GHIDUL-PRIVIND-ADAPTAREA-LA-EFECTELE-SC_EN.doc#_Toc241487057

http://www.mmediu.ro/protectia_mediului/schimbari_climatice/7_EU-ETS/HG%20780_2006_compilat02.11.pdf

http://www.mmediu.ro/protectia_mediului/schimbari_climatice/7_EU-ETS/HG%20780_2006_compilat02.11.pdf

http://www.mmediu.ro/beta/domenii/schimbari-climatice/proiecte-ji/

http://ec.europa.eu/energy/efficiency/end-use_en.htm



http://www.transelectrica.ro/

http://www.hidroelectrica.ro/showData.aspx?type=download&doc=Raportul_administratorului_special.pdf

http://www.hidroelectrica.ro/showData.aspx?type=download&doc=Raportul_administratorului_special.pdf

http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/strategia_energetica_20112035_20042011.pdf

http://www.anpm.ro/upload/63481_NIR-NGHGI%202012%20v.%201.2.pdf


http://www.promitheasnet.kepa.uoa.gr/Promitheas4/images/library/3.2/wp3.2romania.pdf

http://www.minind.ro/pnaer/PNAER_29%20iunie_2010_final_Alx.pdf

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rou_nc5_resbmit.pdf

BBUSINESSUSINESS – A – ASS – U – USUALSUAL S SCENARIOCENARIO (2000 – 2050) (2000 – 2050)BAU Scenario descriptionBAU Scenario description

General commentsThe main observations for this policy portfolio are the following:

The Romanian legislative framework for the promotion of the RES is already in force. The promotion of RES electricity on the domestic market was done by the following acts:

- Primary legislation issued by Romanian Parliament/Government;

- Secondary legislation issued by Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE);

- Operational procedures issued by OPCOM (market operator) and CN Transelectrica SA.

Investments in RES facilities are very intense and with a rapid growth rate. Structural funds3 and the green certificate market support investors in RES facilities.

The necessary legal framework for the promotion of energy efficiency is already in force. Romania’s National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency (NAPEE) sets an energy savings target of 2,8 Mtoe by 2016, ie 13,5% of the average annual energy consumption between 2001 and 2005. The intermediate target of 940 ktoe for 2010 was exceeded (by 2,2 Mtoe)4. A second NEEAP is currently under preparation.

Romania signed 10 Memoranda of Understanding with different developed countries. Until now, 17 JI projects were approved and are in different stages of development. The total quantity of emission reductions to be generated by these projects is about 14 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (for the period 2008-2012, and in some cases before 2008)5.

The adaptation measures are not yet implemented.

Policy portfolio for BAU scenario MitigationThe policy instruments that were implemented before 31 December 2010 and concern

mitigation activities are the following:

Laws for RES

The electricity Law 13/2007 (Official Journal - Part I no. 51/23/01/2007)

This law establishes the regulatory framework for activities in electricity and heat produced in cogeneration, the optimum utilization of primary energy resources in terms of accessibility, availability and affordability and safety compliance, quality and environmental protection. This law transposes the provisions of Directive 2003/54/EC (PROMITHEAS-4, 3 The financing of projects in the fields of RES from structural funds is carried out within the Sectoral Operational Programme “Increase of Economic Competitiveness” (SOP IEC) - Axis 4 “Increasing energy efficiency and security of supply, in the context of combating climate change (see http://oie.minind.ro/). The scheme is managed by the Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Business. The maximum value of the non-refundable support which can be granted for a project as percentage of the eligible expenses is the following: i) for small enterprises and micro-enterprises: 70%, except for projects located in the Bucharest - Ilfov region where the maximum value is 60%; ii) for medium enterprises: 60%, except for projects located in the Bucharest - Ilfov region where the maximum value is 50%; iii) for large enterprises: 50%, except for projects located in the Bucharest - Ilfov region where the maximum value is 40%.4First National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency http://ec.europa.eu/energy/demand/legislation/doc/neeap/romania_en.pdf5 Ministry of Environmental and Forests web site: http://www.mmediu.ro/beta/domenii/schimbari-climatice/proiecte-ji/


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Report, 2011). The target groups are from energy sector (electricity and heat producers and consumers, transmission and distribution operators and regulatory authority etc.).

The law assigned the Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Business Environment with the responsibility to elaborate the Energy Strategy for long term and to achieve the implementation of the energy policies given by Romanian Government. This law established the Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE) as the competent authority in the electricity sector and independent public legal person of national interest under the co-ordination of the Prime Minister. ANRE develops its activity according to its own operation and organization rules approved through Government decision [1].

GD 219/2007 on “Promotion of high-efficiency cogeneration based on a useful heat demand” (Official Journal Part I no. 200/23.03.2007- and GD 1215/2009 - Official Journal no.748/ 3.11.2009)

This decision establishes the legal framework necessary to promote and develop high efficient cogeneration heat and power based on useful heat demand and primary energy savings on the energy market in order to increase energy efficiency and supply them to improve security energy, taking into account the climatic and economic conditions of Romanian. This GD was followed by the Procedure regarding the issuance of the guarantees of origin (GD 1461/2008) and GD 1215/2009. The GD 1215/2009 establishes the necessary legal implementation support of bonus scheme to promote high-efficiency cogeneration based on useful heat demand, established by art. Article 9 (2) of GD 219/2007 of the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand, is hereinafter called the “support scheme”. This Decision is applied to:

a) Producers of electricity and thermal energy in high efficiency cogeneration;

b) electricity consumers;

c) suppliers of electricity;

d) network operators;

e) the administrator of support the scheme.

The support scheme is applied for the period 2010-2023. The maximum installed capacity in cogeneration plants that receive support scheme is 4000 MW on the duration of the scheme [5]. According to ANRE report for the monitoring of support scheme for promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand6 the bonuses unit (for the first year of the award, 2010) were:

- 157,53 lei /MWh (37,41 Euro/MWh) for plants using mainly natural gas in the transport network;

- 166,24 lei/MWh (39,48 Euro/MWh) for plants using mainly natural gas in the distribution network;

- 179,12 lei / MWh (42,54 Euro/MWh) for plants using mainly solid fuel.

Law 220/2008 on “Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources (RES)” (Official Journal no. 743/3.11.2008; Republished: Official Journal no. 577/13.08 2010 modified by Law 139/2010 - Official Journal no. 474/9.07.2010 and GEO 88/2011 - Official Journal no. 736/19.10.2011)

Law (220/2008) was issued in order to stimulate investment in the renewable energy sector. It also referred to targets up to 2020: the share of electricity produced from RES in final consumption of electricity in the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 should be 33%, 35%, and 38%. It set an upgraded version of the Green Certificates system, accentuating the incentives offered for projects using a renewable energy source with a higher specific investment. It also created the legal framework necessary for extending the use of renewable energy through: 6Available at: www.anre.ro/download.php?id=4202


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a. defining rules relating to guarantees of origin, administrative procedures applicable to the grid connection in terms of energy produced from renewable sources;

b. establish criteria for environmental sustainability for biofuels and other bio liquids.

This law stipulates that the producers of electricity from RES obtain green certificates (GC) as incentives. The trading of green certificates represents one of the mechanisms that support the production of electricity from RES in Romania.

According to latest amendment of Law 220/2008 in 2010, the producers of electricity from RES will receive:

- 3 green certificates for every 1 MWh produced and delivered in the electric power network from new hydroelectric stations/groups with a maximum output of 10 MW;

- 2 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network from refurbished hydroelectric stations/groups with a maximum output of 10 MW;

- 1 green certificate for every 2 MWh delivered in the electric power network from hydroelectric stations with an installed power between 1 and 10 MW, which do not fall under the provisions of the previous paragraph;

- 2 green certificates, until 2017, and 1 green certificate, starting from 2018, for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electric power from wind energy;

- 3 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electricity from biomass, biogas, bio liquid, waste fermentation gas, geothermal power and associated combustible gases;

- 6 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electricity from solar power [4].

Laws for energy efficiency

Government Emergency Order No 18/2009 on the increase in the energy performance of residential buildings (Official Journal no. 155/12.03.2009)

The intervention works to be carried out in respect of the residential block envelope, as established by this Emergency Order, shall be:

a) the thermal insulation of the outdoor walls;

b) the replacement of the existing windows and external doors, including the joinery designed for access to the residential block, with energy performance joinery;

c) the hydrothermal insulation of the terrace/the thermal insulation of the floor over the last level, where there is a roof framing;

d) the thermal insulation of the floor over the underground, where the block was designed to include apartments on the ground floor;

e) works for the dismantling of the installations and equipment mounted visibly on the facades/terrace of the residential block and their reassembling after the thermal insulation works have been completed;

f) works for the recovery of the envelope finishes.

The legislative document provides for funds to finance the works carried out for the envelope of residential buildings, as follows:

- 50% from allocations from the State budget;

- 30% from funds provided under the local budgets and/or from other legally established sources;


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- 20% from the fund of the owners’ association, which is intended for repairs, and/or from other legally-established sources.

Likewise, the legislative act provides for the putting in place of specific measures so as to ensure that the specific annual heating consumption has decreased below 100 kWh/square meter of useful area [6].

Law 372/2005 (Official Journal - no. 1144/19.12. 2005, GEO 114/2009 - Official Journal - no. 919/29.12. 2009) - Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings

This Law concerns the promotion of energy efficiency in buildings, taking into account outdoor climatic and site conditions, the internal temperature requirements and economic efficiency. It establishes the conditions of: a) the general methodology for calculating the energy performance of buildings; b) application of minimum energy performance requirements in new buildings; c) application of minimum energy performance requirements to existing buildings, subject to upgrading works; d) energy certification of buildings; e) technical inspection and periodic inspections of boilers/air-conditioning in buildings and in addition, evaluation of heating boilers that are older than 15 years. The law stipulates also for the new building the use of decentralized energy supply systems based on renewable energy sources [3].

The GEO 114/2009 refers to the Art. 23 of Law no. 372/2005 on the energy performance of buildings, and stipulates that the development of energy performance certificates and making them available to potential buyers or tenants by owners, if selling or renting single family homes and apartments in blocks of flats, apply starting on January 1, 2011.

Government Emergency Order No 69/2010 on the thermal rehabilitation of residential buildings with funds from bank loans granted under a Government guarantee (Official Journal no 443/ 01.07.2010)

The legislative act provides mainly for the following issues:

- the non-discriminatory access of the owners’ associations and natural persons acting as owners of single-family residential buildings to bank loans granted under a Government guarantee and having a subsidized interest rate for the thermal rehabilitation of buildings. The value of the loan shall account for 90% of the value of the works to be executed but not above the following thresholds:

the amount of 1850 EUR /house, (paid in the equivalent amount in RON), VAT inclusive, in the case of residential blocks,

the amount of 7400 EUR /house, (paid in the equivalent amount in RON), VAT inclusive, in the case of individual residences.

- complete subsidy granted for the interest rate from the State budget through the budget of the Ministry of Regional Development and Tourism on a period of up to 5 years in the granted loans. The interest rate is: Romanian Interbank Offer Rate (ROBOR), every three months + a fixed margin of 1,9%;

- the possibility of local public administration authorities to participate by up to 30% in the expenses incurred with the thermal rehabilitation of residential blocks;

- the possibility to introduce, as appropriate, some alternative systems for partial/complete energy supply for hot water intended for consumption, lighting and/or heating for individual buildings and residential blocks [7].

Government Ordinance 22/20087 regarding the energy efficiency and promotion of the use of renewable energy sources at the end-users (Official Journal, Part I no. 628/29/08/2008)

7 http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/og_eficienta_energetica_consumatori_finali_surse_regenerabile_energie_22_2008.php


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The objective of this ordinance is to create the legal framework for developing and implementing national energy efficiency policy.

This legislative act requires, on the one hand, that operators of the power distribution system take measures for energy efficiency and, on the other hand, requires operators who consume an annual amount of energy greater than 1000 toe to conduct annual energy audits and draw up energy efficiency improvement programmes.

The target groups are: residential and tertiary sector, industry sector, transport sector.

According to Article 22 of this document to improve energy efficiency the following tools and funding mechanisms can use:

a) model contracts for financial instruments that are made available to existing and potential buyers of energy services and other measures to improve energy efficiency in public and private sector;

b) award scheme funded by the Romanian Agency for Energy Conservation from its own budget and/or sources attracted to exceptional results in research applications in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources;

c) allocation of funds for subsidizing the provision of programs and measures to improve energy efficiency and promoting a market for energy efficiency improvement measures. These measures include the promotion of energy auditing, of financial instruments for energy savings and, where appropriate, improved metering and providing itemized bills.

The implementation network regarding the energy efficiency policy is ensured by: the Ministry of Economy, Commerce and Business Environment; Ministry of Regional Development and Tourism; Ministry of Administration and Interior; Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure; Ministry of Environment and Forests and, Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority.

Other Laws relevant to climate change policy objectives

Directive IPCC 96/61/EC (It was fully transposed by GEO 152/2005 regarding the integrated pollution prevention and control - (Official Journal no. 1078 / 2005 (amended by GEO 40/2010 and Law 205/2010)

This GEO establishes the necessary measures to prevent or, where this is not possible, to reduce emissions in air, water and soil, from the activities listed in its Annex 1, including waste management measures.

The GEO establishes the conditions for obtaining an integrated permit and compliance with the terms of the integrated environmental permit.

The operators are obliged to:

• respect the GEO provisions on the obligation to obtain an integrated environmental permit, for operating their installation;

• to prepare an action plan required for obtaining the integrated environmental permit;

• to comply with any of the conditions provided for in the integrated environmental permit;

• to inform the environmental authorities about any change of use or substantial change that will be brought to the installation;

• to communicate the results of the emissions monitoring in the installation at the deadlines set in the integrated environmental permit or any emissions arising incidentally, accidentally or following a major accident within 24 hours.

Any operator failing to do so must pay a fine between 50000 and 100000 lei [8].


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This Directive is also linked with the Large Combustion Plants Directive (Directive 2001/80/EC) regarding the limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air. The LCP Directive was transposed into the Romanian Legislation by GD 541/2003 - Official Journal no. 365/29.05.2003 modified and completed by GD 322/2005 - Official Journal no. 359/27.04.2005. This decision aims to establish measures to limit air emissions of certain pollutants from large combustion plants. This decision shall apply to combustion plants whose rated output is equal to or greater than 50 MW, referred to as large combustion plants, regardless of type of fuel used [9].

Laws for emission trading

EU-ETS scheme - National Allocation Plan (NAP) of allowances in greenhouse gas emissions for the periods 2007 and 2008-2012 (GD 780/2006 - Official Journal no. 554/27.06.2006 and GD 60/2008 - Official Journal no. 126/18.02.2008)

The EU Directive 2003/87/ЕС was transposed into Romanian legislation through: GD 780/2006 - Official Journal no. 554/27.06.2006 and GD 60/2008 - Official Journal no. 126/18.02.2008). The National Allocation Plan includes 234 installations (the number installations with verified emissions in 2010) belonging to thermal power plants, district heating plants, chemical factories, textile factories, refineries, cement factories etc.

After rounds of consultation with the Romanian authorities regarding the principles and the amount of allowances allocated for each installation falling under the provisions of Directive 2003/87/EC, in October 2007 the Commission decided on NAP 2007 and 2008-2012 as follows:

the total amount of allowances for 2007 to be 10% less than the national cap proposed by the Romanian authorities (74343356 allowances) and

the total amount of allowances for 2008–2012 to be 20,7% less than the national cap proposed by the Romanian authorities (349671593 allowances).

The Commission’s decisions were implemented by the Romanian Government through GD no. 60/2008 approving the National Allocation Plan and establishing that:

allocation of allowances is free of charge;

New Entrants Reserve (NER) is established only for the second period of the scheme and not for 2007;

project credits (ERUs and CERs) can be used up to 10% of the total quantity allocated to installation;

auction is not used as allocation methodology for 2007 and 2008–2012; the Government will auction only the unused allowances from NER at the end of 2012;

Early Action Reserve for 2008–2012 was established at 4,48% from the total amount of allowances;

a JI set-aside for JI projects for 2008–2012 (as requested by Decision 2006/780/EC) was established at 1,91% from the total amount of allowances;

a cogeneration Reserve for 2008-2012 concerning CHP installations with overall efficiency higher than 65% was established at 0,95% of the total amount of allowances [10].

Joint Implementation Mechanism

The JI mechanism was incorporated into national legislation through:


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- Ministerial Order 1122/2006 - Official Journal no. 957/28.11.2006 approving the Guidebook on the use of the Joint Implementation (JI) mechanism based on Track II (article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol);

- Ministerial Order 97/2008 - Official Journal no. 308/21.04.2008 regarding the approval of the JI use based on Track I.

Green Investment Scheme (GIS)

The GIS in Romania is regulated by:

- GD 432/2010 - Official Journal no 303/10.05.2010 concerning the setting up and development of green investment schemes; this decision sets the legal and institutional framework for the launching up and development of GIS. The aim of this decision is the efficient trading of the Romanian Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) surplus under the Kyoto Protocol [11]. For the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol 2008-2012, the surplus of AAUs to be sold is more than 300 million AAUs. Trading surplus AAUs is usually in installments of at least one million AAUs [11].

- GEO 29/2010 - Official Journal no 231/13.04.2010 concerning the trade of the Romanian Assigned Amounts Units under the Kyoto Protocol. This Emergency Ordinance establishes measures for the efficient trading of the Romanian AAUs surplus under the Kyoto Protocol, according to Art. 17 of this Protocol and to the subsequent decisions adopted by the Conference of the Parties. The efficient trading of the surplus of the AAUs is made under GISs [12].

Adaptation

Directive 2007/ 60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks.

This Directive is incorporated into national legislation with GD 846/2010 - Official Journal no. 626/6.09.2010 for approving National Strategy for flood risk management in the medium and long term. Given the consequences of the floods this strategy aims to defining the framework; to guide all actions; to prevent and reduce flood consequences on socio-economic activities, life and human health and the environment.

The objectives of this strategy are economic, social and environmental. Economic objectives aim to protect existing economic infrastructure from flooding and ensure future generations to meet economic opportunities.

Social objectives concern the protection of people and human communities against flooding by ensuring an acceptable level of protection of the population and increase the company's ability to grow under conditions assumed to produce flood risk (high resilience).

Ensure that the environmental objectives through implementation of this strategy to achieve socio-economic goals while maintaining a balance between economic and social development and environmental objectives.

The key actions for the implementation of the strategy are:

- Increased institutional capacity by empowering decision makers at various levels;

- Improving the legislative framework;

- Supporting activities for the implementation of the National Strategy for flood risk management in the medium and long;

- Planning work;

- Development of methodologies / studies / reports necessary to implement the National Strategy for flood risk management in the medium and long;

- Measures of training [13].


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Water Law no. 107/1996 (amended by GD 948/1999, Law 404/2003, Law 310/2004, Law 112/2006, GEO 130/2007, GEO 3/2010, GEO 64/2011, GEO 71/2011)8

The Water Law with all its subsequent amendments transposes the provisions of the EU Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC) into national legislation.

Among the main objectives of the Water Law, aside from the protection of water resources and the river banks and beds against pollution, is the flood risk management in order to reduce negative consequences for human health, environment, cultural heritage and economic activity and meeting the water requirements for any human activity.

The Water Law with all its subsequent amendments:

• establishes the conditions for the use of water and river beds;

• has provisions for water management including:

- protection of minor river beds and banks and water management works;

- watershed planning;

- conditions for works that are built on waters;

- protection against floods, dangerous weather events and accidents at hydraulic structures.

• has provisions for water management control and

• penalties for those not complying with specific requirements of the Water Law.

Implementation network is represented by the Ministry of Environment and Forests.

Main characteristics of this policy portfolioIn this scenario the key drivers are assumed to develop based on their historical trends.

Utilization of RES for energy purposes is very intense in Romania. Currently, in the total electricity production, the proportion of the hydro generated electricity is about 25-30%, of which only 5% from capacities below 10 MW; wind power represents less than 1% (2010) and about 2% in 2011 [14].

The promotion of RES on the Romanian market not only requires legislative, but also financial and economical support. After analyzing different options to promote RES-e, the decision was made on the Mandatory Quota system, combined with the use of Green Certificates (GC).

The latest and most spectacular development plans in the sector of RES in Romania mainly deal with the segment of wind power generation. Romania's very high potential (14000 MW), doubled by the attractive incentive schemes (2 GCs, until 2017, and one GC, starting from 2018), have raised a particularly high interest from investors in this segment. Romanian authorities have until now received approval requests for the installation of a wind capacity that exceeds the country's potential [15].

In the beginning of 2012 wind turbines with a total installed capacity of about 1000 MW were installed. The following companies have installed wind farms in Romania: EDP, CEZ AS, EON, Iberdrola SA and ENEL SA [16].

The biodiesel industry in Romania is still at its inception compared with other EU markets, but shows over the last year one of the highest growth rates. According to European Biodiesel Board [European Biodiesel Board] the Romanian production of biodiesel reached in 2010 approximately 70 thousand tonnes or 0,73% of the total production within the EU 27 [17].

8 http://www.legex.ro/Legea-107-1997-11874.aspx


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The following results are attributed as outcomes in 2010 of this policy portfolio and compared to year 1990:

Between 1990 and 2010 the average efficiency of the power sector increased noticeably, from 23% to 39%. That improvement was partly achieved through the rising share of hydropower (higher efficiency) in the electricity mix (from 18% to 34%) but also through the growing efficiency rate of thermal power plants (from 31,4% to 35,6% over the 2000-2010 period by rehabilitation of units with old technologies on fossil fuels) [18]. Indeed, since 2000, old power plants have been replaced by gas-fired facilities with a higher level of efficiency [18].

Romania successfully participates in the development of “Joint Implementation” projects.

Romania participated in the EU ETS in the last year of Phase I of the scheme (2007); though several malfunctions at the level of GHG Registry prevented the companies to actively trade EUAs. Currently (second phase of the EU ETS) all malfunctions have been solved and companies included in the EU ETS may actively benefit from the rules of the ETS [10].

The CO2 emissions from the energy sector decreased during the period 2006 – 2010 through the increase of the energy efficiency from about 33 million tCO2 equiv./year in 2006 to about 31,5 million tCO2 equiv./year in 2010 [19].


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Key assumptionsKey assumptionsThe key assumptions used for the development of this scenario developed based on their

historical trends. The categories of the key parameters are common for all scenarios and are divided as follows:

DemographicsAccording to the “2010 World Population Prospects” of the United Nations the population

of 49 countries is expected to decrease for the period 2011-2050, while 44 of them are expected to continue decreasing for the period 2050-2100. Among these countries is also Romania.

The version “medium variant” of the population projections was used for the BAU scenario (table 2, figure 1).

Table 2: United Nations projections for the Romanian population9 (UN, 2010).

Average annual rate of change (%)Variant 2005-

20102010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2030-2035

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

Medium -0,26 -0,3 -0,26 -0,30 -0,41 -0,46 -0,46 -0,58

Figure 1: Demographics: Population.

EconomyGross Domestic Product

GDP is characterized as a key driver of energy demand in all regions. It is assumed to grow worldwide by 3,2% per year on average over the period 2008-2035. In general, the non-OECD countries continue to grow faster (World Energy Outlook 2010, IEA).

9 United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 2011. World Population Prospects – The 2010 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables. Available at: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2010_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf


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http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2010_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf

The Eurostat projections for Romania’s GDP until 2014 are presented in table 3.

Table 3: Projections for the Romanian GDP (Eurostat10, 2012).

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014Annual percent change of GDP (%) 2,2 0,8 2,2 2,7

For the BAU scenario the GDP growth rate remains constant until year 2050 based on projections of the table 3. The evolution of the GDP until 2050 is presented in the figure 2.

Figure 2: Economy: GDP real.

GDP per capitaProjections of this key driver are based on those of GDP and population. LEAP calculates

them automatically based on the projections of the other two key drivers as they are defined for each scenario.

GDP distribution per sectorThe GDP distribution per sector was based on the historical data. This distribution was

assumed the same for the BAU scenario (figure 3).

10 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115


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Figure 3: GDP distribution per sector.

Average annual household Income While, generally, an increase is noticed through the decade 2000-2010, the last two years

there is a slight decrease. The growth rate of this variable is assumed to be equal to the growth rate of GDP per capita (figure 4).

Figure 4: Average annual household income.


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Gini coefficientThe data on the Gini coefficient will be used for assessment of policy portfolios in AMS

method.

IndustryStarting with 1990, Romania has begun to develop a free market economy. In the last

decade, the main concerns and activities of decision makers at national level aimed at economic restructuring and de-monopolisation, privatization and introduction of market economy mechanisms.

The main branches of the economy are the energy industry, metallurgy, automobile industry, chemical and petrochemical industry, light industry, constructions, agriculture and the food industry. The major part of the sectors of the economy remain insufficient exploited and offer for the future investors great potential, especially in the manufacturing, agriculture and tourism. In the recent years the sectors that attracted important foreign investment are: oil and natural gas sector, automotive industry, metallurgy industry, food processing industry, telecommunications, construction and consumer goods manufacturing, banking and finance.

Romania has an extensive experience in the management of trade changes, in the field of taxation as well as financial, banking and labour market as a result of continuous economic restructuring and the transition period.

As a result of the global financial crisis, Romania's GDP fell more than 7% in 2009, prompting Bucharest to seek a $26 billion emergency assistance package from the IMF, the EU, and other international lenders. Drastic austerity measures, as part of Romania's IMF-led agreement, led to a 1,3% GDP contraction in 2010. The economy returned to positive growth in 2011 due to a strong export performance, but in a deflationary environment caused by bountiful crops and weak domestic demand. In March 2011, Romania and the IMF/EC/World Bank signed a 24-month precautionary stand-by agreement, worth $4,9 billion, to promote compliance with fiscal targets, progress on structural reforms, and financial sector stability. The Romanian authorities have announced that they do not intend to draw funds from the facility11.

The exports falling due to a decrease of external demand and bad access to credit as international financial markets froze. Internal demand, formerly heavily based on credit was the second main driver of the former growth and thus, of the recession in 2009. The only good things were a relatively low inflation rate and a shrinking of the current account deficit.

Construction may be considered one of the most dynamic sectors of national economy in the last 7-8 years, due mainly to the highest degree of private share (over 99,7% companies with major private capital in 2010). It is one of the engines ‘pushing’ the other sectors both by influencing the production of construction materials and other industrial and commercial activities, and by creating new residential and nonresidential buildings and infrastructures.

In a few figures, the construction sector is characterized by a global investment value of 16,52 billion EURO in 2010, representing 10% of 2010 GDP (with a mean annual increase rate of 14% in the last 6 years), with almost 53000 active companies on the market and 319000 employees (8% at National economy level).12

Agriculture Agriculture is an important sector in the Romanian economy contributing in the period

2005 - 2010 with 7 – 10 % of GDP13, depending on the year and climatic conditions.

11 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ro.html12 Romanian National Institute of Statistics (2002 - 2011). Web Page: TEMPO-Online time series, National Accounts, available at: www.insse.ro13 Romanian National Institute of Statistics (2002 - 2011). Web Page: TEMPO-Online time series, National Accounts, available at: www.insse.ro


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After 1990 the agricultural sector underwent significant changes as a result of Law No.18/1991, which concerns the distribution of agricultural area. So following the enforcement of the restitution laws in 2010 around of 94,3% of agricultural area was private ownership (includes: private ownership of state, of administrative territorial units, of legal persons and of natural persons).

In 2010 agricultural area irrigated from systems managed by the National Administration for Land Arrangements was of 83 thou ha, private ownership.

According to tradition, Romanian owners have been dividing their property into equal shares between their heirs. Today, a multitude of small surfaces ranging between 0,1 ha and 10 ha results from so many divisions, generation after generation. Larger surfaces are quite rare.

The gap between the contribution to GDP and the size of the agricultural employment reflects a rural environment devoted almost exclusively to agriculture, with a level of labor intensiveness in line with inadequacy of technical resources

Climate StatisticsFor the temperate continental zone the annual mean temperature is expected to increase

by 3 - 4oC and up to 4,5oC in the Black Sea region. Annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by up to 10% mainly in winter, while there would be reductions in summer precipitation in several areas (up to -10%)14.

For Romania the annual average temperature is expected to increase and river discharges to decline.

TemperatureThe changes in the climate conditions in Romania are part of the global context, taking

into account the regional conditions: the temperature increase is expected to be more obvious during the summer.

For the BAU scenario the assumption is that the temperature will follow the historical growth.

PrecipitationAnnual average amount of precipitations vary between less than 300 mm/sqm*yr

and 1200 mm/sqm*yr.

From the precipitations point of view, over 90% of the climate models forecast for the period 2090-2099 serious droughts during the summer in Romania, especially in South and Southeast (with negative deviations compared to the period 1980-1990 higher than 20%)15

For the BAU scenario the annual precipitation change was considered to follow its historical growth.

Policies and MeasuresQuota - Green Certificate Green Certificate (GC) represents a form of support for electricity produced from

renewable energy sources.

14 Report - Impacts of climate change on European forests and options for adaptationhttp://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/euro_forests/full_report_en.pdf15 Ministry of Environment and Forest of Romania, 2010. 5th National Communication of Romania, available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rou_nc5_resbmit.pdf


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Green Certificate is a document which attests that a quantity of electricity was produced using renewable energy sources.

OPCOM – Operator of Romanian Green certificates Market – legal entity that assures Green Certificates trading and determines the prices on the Centralized Green certificates Market, performing the functions established by the Regulation for organizing and functioning of the Green Certificates Market (ANRE Ordinance nr. 22/2006).

Mandatory Quota System – Mechanism used to promote the production of electricity from renewable energy sources by means of the acquisition by the electricity suppliers of a number of Green Certificates according to the mandatory quota imposed by law.

The operation of the mandatory quota system for the promotion of the electricity produced from renewable energy sources includes the following steps:

1. By law are established annual quotas of electricity produced from renewable energy sources, in national gross consumption of electricity. Those quotas are presented in table 4:

Table 4: The annual quotas of electricity produced from renewable energy sources.

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Quota 8,3% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 15,0% 16,0% 17,0% 18,0% 19,0% 19,5% 20,0%

The quota for 2021-2030 will be established by the Ministry and will be at least equal to the quota of 2020.

2. The Regulatory Authority yearly qualifies the producers of electricity from renewable energy sources in order to receive Green Certificates.

3. For each unit of electricity delivered into the network, (1MWh), the producers receive a number of Green Certificates, according to the provisions of the law; those Green Certificates can be sold separately from the produced electricity on the Green Certificates Market.

4. In order to fulfill their obligation, the electricity suppliers have to own a number of Green Certificates corresponding with the imposed quota of electricity produced from renewable energy sources.

5. The Green Certificates value represents an additional income received by the producers for the “clean” energy that they deliver into the network.

6. The price of electricity is determined on the electricity market.

The price of Green Certificate is determined by market mechanisms: by means of Bilateral Contracts concluded between producers and suppliers on a Centralized Market organized and administrated by S.C. Opcom S.A.

The price of Green Certificates varies in a range [27 Euro/CG ÷ 55 Euro/GC] established by Government decision. The minimum price is imposed for producer’s protection and the maximum price for consumer’s protection.

For BAU scenario the GC prices will follow the growth rate of the quotas.

Renewable energy sources eligible to participate in the RES promotion system by means of Green Certificates trading (according to Law 220/27.10.2008 republished) are:

1. Hydro energy used in power plants with installed capacity up to 10 MW;

2. Wind;

3. Solar (Photovoltaic);


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4. Geothermal energy and associated gases;

5. Biomass;

6. Biogas;

7. Gas from the landfill waste fermentation;

8. Gas from the fermentation of the sediment from the sewage treatment of used waters.

The penalty is 110€/GC. The amount resulting from the penalties is collected by the transmission system and the revenue is transferred to the Environment Fund for financing power generation from renewable sources by individuals who invest in energy-producing plants with installed capacities up to 100 kW.

The time period for granting GC is:

15 years for E-RES produced in new installations;

7 years for E-RES produced in second-hand imported installations, not older than 10 years and according with the environmental standards;

10 years for E-RES produced in refurbished hydro installations up to 10 MW;

3 years for E-RES produced in non refurbished hydro installations up to 10 MW.

The RES promotion system applied to the producers qualified by ANRE is in force after the energy is produced and the GC is received if commissioning and refurbishment are done until the end of 2016.16

For BAU, Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios the GC price was assumed that will follow the growth rate of the quota until 2020.

Land managementNo policy instrument concerning land management is applied.

16 Romanian Green Certificates Market Romanian Electricity Market Operator OPCOM, January, http://greenenergy.thediplomat.ro/docs/OPCOM_Cert.pdf


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http://greenenergy.thediplomat.ro/docs/OPCOM_Cert.pdf

Figure 5: Land management.

Global trendsCrude oil priceThe projections for the crude oil prices from the Reference scenario of the IEA, World

Energy Outlook 2010, will be used.

Natural gas priceFor the natural gas prices the following forecasts are encountered in the relevant literature:

Coal prices increase from 65$ per tonne in 2006 to 120$ in 2015, and then fall to 85$ in 2030, compared with 110$ in 2030 in the Reference Scenario — a reduction of 23%.

EUA priceProjections of the EUA price will be used based on the relevant literature.

ERU priceThe average CER price was 18€/tCO2 based on the first 11 months of 2008 (Rotfub W. et

al., 2009). The same growth rates that are adopted for the EUA price will be used for the CER price also.

AdaptationWater UseWater use data concern adaptation. We assume that there is no change for BAU scenario.


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Energy DemandEnergy Demand Households

The last Census of Population and Dwellings was done at the end of 2011 and preliminary global results were published in February 2012 (the final and detailed results will be available at the end of 2013):

Population: 19042936 inhabitants;

Households: 7086717 units;

Dwellings: 8,5 million units, of which 8450607 conventional dwellings (54,2% in urban area) and 8149 other living units;

Buildings: 5117940 buildings, of which 5103013 buildings with dwellings and 14927 buildings with collective living spaces;

Living area: 398037 sqm (55,4% in urban area). (Living area is the total useful area of living rooms, i.e. except the area of bathrooms, kitchens/kitchenettes, deposit areas and hallways)17.

The energy performance of existing building stock, expressed by the final energy consumption indicator, vary from 120 to 400 kWh/m²year, depending on building type, year of construction, existing installations and climatic region [1].

The energy modernization of existing building stock is made both by private funding (owners) and public funding (national rehabilitation programs). For residential buildings two thermal rehabilitation programs are active: one established by Government Emergency Ordinance (GEO) no. 18/2009 applied to blocks of flats built during the period 1950-1990 and the other one established by GEO no. 69/2010 for all residential buildings.

Based on data published by EUROSTAT in the period 2009-2011, in the table 6 below, a comparative situation regarding the average prices in the European countries about the average price for household consumers, defined as the price in Euro/kWh without taxes, applicable in the first semester of the respective year for the medium household consumers, with an annual consumption of 2,5-5 MWh is presented.

Table 5: The average electricity price for households.

CountryPrice (Euro/kWh) Price Romania per price

another state (%)

2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011

EU (27 countries) 0,1224 0,1221 0,1281 66,50% 70,11% 66,20%

Euro area 0,1243 0,1234 0,1286 65,49% 69,37% 65,94%

Romania 0,0814 0,0856 0,0848 100,00% 100,00% 100,00%

Table 6 shows that the electricity prices for households consumers in Romania is low, being higher only than the prices in Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania. We mention that the current power plants have lower efficiency (30-33%).

The most important key driver for heat demand in the residential sector is the average household income. According to the National Institute of Statistics in 2011, 25% of a family's monthly expenses were necessary for the household’s utilities (electricity and heat).

The assumption for the growth rate of energy demand households sector in the BAU scenario is that it follows the growth rate of GDP/capita.

17 National Institute for Statistics web site: http://www.insse.ro/cms/rw/pages/index.ro.do


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The evolution of the household’s energy demand is shown in the figure 6.

Figure 6: Households' energy demand.

AgricultureThe energy demand in agriculture can be broadly categorized as follows:

- Motor fuels for agricultural works;

- Electric energy for irrigation, grain storage and livestock farms;

- Thermal energy for greenhouses and livestock farms.

Specific consumption of motor fuels for agricultural works is expected to decrease mainly because of the penetration of efficient tractors and land concentration.

For the irrigation systems it is necessary to take measures for the decrease of water losses and the introducing the efficient sprinkler systems.

The modernization of farms will lead to better animal breeding. In these conditions the specific electricity consumption per ton of meat produced will decrease.

Energy intensity in agriculture is expected to decrease through the modernization of buildings, heating, sprinkling systems etc. The assumption for the growth rate of energy demand in the BAU scenario is that it follows the growth rate of GDP. Fuel shares are considered to be the same across the years since no policy instrument is applied.

The evolution of the agriculture’s energy demand is shown in figure 7.


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Figure 7: Agriculture’s energy demand.

IndustryRomania's manufacturing sector is dominated by machine-building, metals, chemicals, and

textiles, all of which have had to turn from supplying the domestic market to finding export markets. Investment has been a key issue, as they try to update the outdated equipment many of them were left with when communism fell. Many of the previously state-owned firms have also been sold to private owners in an attempt to bring in money and improve management. Some of the biggest firms, seen by the government as strategic, have still to be sold, however.

The textile and footwear industries have been among the most successful in the past decade, as Western European and U.S. clothes-makers subcontract work to Romanian firms.

During the 1990s, many of the largest firms in the machine-building sector were split up into smaller units in an attempt to boost efficiency and speed up their privatization. The disruption has been immense, and Romanian firms, long protected in an isolated market, have also found it hard to raise their production to the standard needed for export. Nevertheless, there has been some recovery in the sector. Exports rose nearly 50% during 2000, and it accounted for 14% of the total.

Romanian firms in both the metals and machine-building sectors lay great hopes on becoming subcontractors for major European manufacturers. That is why the 1999 acquisition of the Dacia car plant by France's Renault is seen as so important to Romania's future. Renault plans to use Dacia to develop, for emerging markets, cars selling for around US$5000 per piece. To do that, it will have to build up a network of local, cheap suppliers such as the Sidex steelmaker. Renault's entry into Romania has also brought in other foreign investors, among them its international suppliers, such as the United States' Johnson Controls.

Romania's chemicals sector consists of both petro-chemicals, based on its oil industry, and on pharmaceuticals. Like the oil sector, the petro-chemicals sector has revived in the past year due to rising world prices18.

18 http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Europe/Romania.html


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Assumptions for BAU - the growth rate of activity level and growth rate of energy demand are equal to growth rate of GDP. Fuel shares are considered steady since no policy instrument is applied.

The evolution of the industry’s energy demand is shown in figure 8.

Figure 8: Industry’s total energy demand.

The evolution of fuels demand in industry sector in BAU scenario will have the following trends presented in figure 9.

Figure 9 : Industry’s total fuels demand.


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Due to fact that the data for the activity level are given aggregated for industry (including constructions, energy and manufacturing) in the model we will have only the industry sector.

ServicesFor the purpose of this report the activity level and the energy data for services sector

include: wholesale and retail trade, government, financial, professional, and personal services such as education, health care, real estate services, imputed bank service charges, import duties, and any statistical discrepancies.

Assumption for BAU – the growth rate of energy demand is equal to the growth rate of GDP. The evolution of fuels demand in services sector in BAU scenario will have the following trends presented in figure 10.

Figure 10: Services’ total fuel demand.

Transport Taking into consideration the deep restructuring of economy there are big differences

between freight transportation in period 1989-1995 and in period 2005 - 2010.

During the period 1989-1995 Romania was a country with a high transport rate, a consequence of the concentration of production in big industrial units mainly processing basic material (steel, cement, refineries, etc.). In this period total activity in freight transportation was achieved 19% by truck, 51% by train. 25,8% by barge and 4,2% by pipelines. Energy intensity was about 0,25 kWh/tkm for truck, 0,122 kWh/tkm for train Diesel, 0,057kWh/tkm for electric train and 0,047 kWh/tkm for barge.

In the period 2005 ÷2010 the structure of activity for freight transportation has changed. So in 2005 this activity was achieved 14,7% by train, 65,3% by truck, 7% inland waterway, 10% maritime transport and 3% by pipelines. In 2010 this activity was achieved 17,4% by train, 57,5% by truck, 10,5% inland waterway, 12,5 %maritime transport and 2% by pipelines.


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Between 2005 and 2010 transported goods were in correlation with the economic activity. So the quantity of transported goods in 2010 (304266 thousand tonnes) represented only 58% of quantity in 2008.

In 2010 the main types of goods transported by train were: 43,5% coal and lignite, crude oil and natural gas, 26,6% coke and refined petroleum products,7,5% chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibers, rubber and plastic products, nuclear fuels, 6,6% basic metals, 4,6% metal ores and other mining and quarrying products,11,2% other types of goods.

Passenger transportation depends of the population mobility. This transportation depends of urban mobility and intercity mobility.

In the period 1989-1995 intercity passenger transportation was achieved 10% by car, 33% by bus 52% by train and 5% by plane.

In the period 2005-2010 passenger intercity and international transport were achieved specially on road. So in 2005 this transport was achieved 27.6% by train, 71,2% by car and bus (road transport) and 1,2% by plane. In 2010 this transport was achieved 20,1% by train, 76,6 % by car and bus and 3,2% by plane.

In 2010 total final energy consumption for transport was 5106793 toe of which 276778 toe air transport, 4530778 toe road transport, 221269 toe railway transport, 61071 toe naval transport, 16898 toe pipeline transport. This consumption represented about 22,5% of total final energy consumption.

Assumption for BAU – the growth rate of energy demand is equal to the growth rate of GDP. The evolution of the final energy demand by fuels type in the transport sector is presented in the figure 11.

Figure 11: Final Energy Demand in Transport sector per fuel.


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TransformationTransformation Transmission and Distribution losses

Losses in the transmission and distribution of electricity are about 4% (for transmission) and about 10-12% (for distribution). It is estimated that in the future these losses will be reduced due to the modernization of the power grid and of the natural gas grid infrastructure.

The growth of T&D losses will follow the historical growth (2000 – 2010) for BAU scenario and will have the following evolution, presented in figure 12.

Figure 12: The evolution of T&D losses.

Electricity generation In the last years due to structural changes of economy and the appearance of new efficient

consumers, primary energy intensity decreased, but the value is bigger with 25% than the average value of EU 27.

Under the former regime (1989) each energy industry formed a Ministry (Ministry of Electricity, Ministry of Mining, etc). In 1990 a new Ministry of Industries decided that some industrial groups were separated from Ministry to form commercial company destined for privatization (Societate Anonima - SA) and industries of strategic significance were re-established as enterprises destined to remain in state ownership over the long term (Regia Autonoma - RA). Romania has available various energy resources but there are insufficient quantities to cover the energy demand.

The evolution of primary energy production in the period 2000 - 2010, leads to the following conclusions:

- the production of coal increased due to the production of lignite;

- the fossil fuel production (coal, natural gas, crude oil) keeps majority weight in primary energy production (71,8% in 2010);

- the fire wood and agricultural wastes keep an important weight in primary energy production.


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In order to cover the energy demand, Romania imported important quantities of primary energy. The imports of energy exceed of about 3 times the exports, Romania being a net importer. The dependence of energy imports increased continuously in the period 2000-2008 from 22% in 2000 at 27% in 2008 with the maximum of 31,9% in 2007 (table 7).

Table 6: The evolution of the energy import dependence.

Year UM 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

The balance import - export

Thou.Toe

10538 11622 12498 10759 6635 7247

The consumption of primary energy

Thou.toe

37932 39571 39159 39658 34328 34817

Dependence degree % 27,8 29,4 31,9 27,1 19,3 20,8

The consumption of the energy production plants, in 2010, was lower than in 2009, with 708 thousand equivalent tons (-6,9%). The consumption of coal accounts about 54,5% and the hydrocarbons accounts about 15,1% from the consumption of energy production plants.

For the BAU scenario it was considered the finalization until 2020 of the units 3 and 4 of the NPP Cernavoda and the construction of the new capacities forecasted in the National Action Plan for Renewable Energy Sources. The evolution of electricity generation by fuel type is presented in figure 13.

Figure 13: Evolution of electricity generation by fuel type19.

Heat production No data available for the district heating plants.

19 The heat productions from CHP plants (Coal and Natural Gas) are included.


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Coal transformation No data available for coal transformation.

Oil RefiningRefineries represent an important sector in the Romanian economy considering the share

of production from the total manufacturing industry (14,9% in 2008, 12% in 2009 and 11% in 2010)20. The imported oil supply is mainly from Kazakhstan and Russia.

Total crude supply absorbed by Romania’s refining system increased during 2004-2005 and afterwards entered a regression phase as a result of economy restructuring and implementation of the measures for respecting the quality norms. The highest crude imports were registered in 2008, with a share of 65% of total crude supply. In the first nine months of 2010 the share of import/domestic crude production was 59% / 41%21.

For BAU scenario the oil refining sector will remain stable (figure 14).

Figure 14: The evolution of Oil refining sector.

20 National Institute of Statistics - Romanian Statistical Yearbook - 201121 Ministry of Environment and Forests & National Environmental Protection Agency, “Romania’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1989-2010, National Inventory Report”, March 2012. Web page: http://www.anpm.ro/inventarul_national_al_emisiilor_de_gaze_cu_efect_de_sera-7703


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Global warming potential (GHG emissions)Global warming potential (GHG emissions)

In figure 15 the evolution of the GHG emissions attributed to each “energy consuming” sector is presented.

Figure 15: GHG emissions per sector.

It can be noticed that the GHG emissions will increase until 2050 to 163,24 mil. tonnes CO2 equiv, but this value is smaller than the value of GHG emissions from 1989 (the base year for Romania in the context of Kyoto protocol which is 278,3 mil. tonnes CO2 equiv.22).

It can be noticed that the electricity production sector and the transport sector will continue to have the main contributions to the GHG emissions.

The non – energy sector, presented above, concerns the emission sources and sinks attributed to land use change, agriculture and forestry.

22 http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/kp_data_unfccc/base_year_data/items/4354.php


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ReferencesReferences1. Romanian Parliament - The electricity Law 13/2007 (Official Journal - Part I no. 51 from

23/01/2007), available at: http://www.minind.ro/domenii_sectoare/leg_armonizata/energie/EnergyLAW13_2007_27_07.pdf

2. Promitheas 4 Report - Overview of the Mitigation/Adaptation Policy Instruments in Romania, available at: http://www.promitheasnet.kepa.uoa.gr/Promitheas4/images/library/3.2/wp3.2romania.pdf

3. Romanian Parliament - Law 372/2005 (Official Journal - no. 1144/19.12. 2005, available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/legea_performatei_energetice_cladirilor.php

4. Romanian Parliament - Law 139/2010 - Official Journal no 474/9 .07.2010, available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/legea_139_2010_modificarea_completarea_legii_220_2008_sistemul_promovare_producerii_energiei_surse_regenerabile.php

5. Romanian Government - GD 1215/2009 - Official Journal no.748/ 3.11.2009, available at: http://legestart.ro/Hotararea-1215-2009-stabilirea-criteriilor-conditiilor-necesare-implementarii-schemei-sprijin-promovarea-cogenerarii-inalta-eficienta-pe-baza-cererii-energie-termica-util-(MzQxNTA2).htm

6. Romanian Government - GEO 18/2009 Official Journal no. 155/2009 available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_cresterea_performantei_energetice_blocurilor_locuinte_18_2009.php

7. Romanian Government - GEO 69/2010 - Official Journal no 443/ 01.07.2010 available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_69_2010_reabilitarea_termica_cladirilor_locuit_finantare_credite_bancare_garantie_guvernamentala.php

8. Romanian Government - GEO 152/2005 regarding the integrated pollution prevention and control - (Official Journal no . 1078 / 30.11.2005, available at:http://legestart.ro/Ordonanta-de-urgenta-152-2005-prevenirea-controlul-integrat-poluarii-(MTc3OTU4).htm

9. Romanian Government - GD 541/2003 - Official Journal no. 365/29.05.2003, available at: http://www.mmediu.ro/legislatie/acte_normative/controlul_poluarii/ima/HG_541-2003.pdf

10. Bucharest, January 2010 - 5th National Communication of Romania, available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rou_nc5_resbmit.pdf

11. Romanian Government - GD 432/2010 - Official Journal no 303/10.05.2010, available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/hg_432_2010_initiere_dezvoltare_scheme_investitii_verzi.php

12. Romanian Government - GEO 29/2010 - Official Journal no 231/13.04.2010, available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_29_2010_valorificare_surplus_unitati_cantitatii_romania_protocolul_kyoto.php

13. Romanian Government - GD 846/2010 - Official Journal no. 626/6.09.2010 available at: http://www.legex.ro/Hotararea-846-2010-107070.aspx

14. National Institute of Statistics - Energy Balance and Energy Equipment Structure, Collections 2009 – 2011 (available only in hard copy);

15. Romania’s Green Market Report, available at: http://www.armandconsulting.eu/documente/piata_potential.pdf

16. Transelectrica web – site: www.transelectrica.ro 17. The Ninth International Conference “Investments and Economic Recovery”, May 22 – 23,

2009, Analysis of the Romanian biofuels industry under the current economic conditions using PESTEL, Alin Paul OLTEANU, Ph.D. Student, available at: http://www.management.ase.ro/reveconomia/2009-1s/26.pdf

18. Romania Energy efficiency report, available at http://www05.abb.com/global/scot/scot316.nsf/veritydisplay/1871d038e321e6ab48257a23004c8951/$file/Romania%20Energy%20efficiency%20Report.pdf

19. Ministry of Environment and Forests & National Environmental Protection Agency, 2012. Romania’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1989-2010, National Inventory Report, v.1.2, March 2012, available at: http://www.anpm.ro/upload/63481_NIR-NGHGI%202012%20v.%201.2.pdf


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http://www05.abb.com/global/scot/scot316.nsf/veritydisplay/1871d038e321e6ab48257a23004c8951/$file/Romania%20Energy%20efficiency%20Report.pdf

http://www05.abb.com/global/scot/scot316.nsf/veritydisplay/1871d038e321e6ab48257a23004c8951/$file/Romania%20Energy%20efficiency%20Report.pdf

http://www.management.ase.ro/reveconomia/2009-1s/26.pdf

http://www.transelectrica.ro/

http://www.armandconsulting.eu/documente/piata_potential.pdf

http://www.legex.ro/Hotararea-846-2010-107070.aspx

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_29_2010_valorificare_surplus_unitati_cantitatii_romania_protocolul_kyoto.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_29_2010_valorificare_surplus_unitati_cantitatii_romania_protocolul_kyoto.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/hg_432_2010_initiere_dezvoltare_scheme_investitii_verzi.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/hg_432_2010_initiere_dezvoltare_scheme_investitii_verzi.php


http://www.mmediu.ro/legislatie/acte_normative/controlul_poluarii/ima/HG_541-2003.pdf

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_69_2010_reabilitarea_termica_cladirilor_locuit_finantare_credite_bancare_garantie_guvernamentala.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_69_2010_reabilitarea_termica_cladirilor_locuit_finantare_credite_bancare_garantie_guvernamentala.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_cresterea_performantei_energetice_blocurilor_locuinte_18_2009.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_cresterea_performantei_energetice_blocurilor_locuinte_18_2009.php

http://legestart.ro/Hotararea-1215-2009-stabilirea-criteriilor-conditiilor-necesare-implementarii-schemei-sprijin-promovarea-cogenerarii-inalta-eficienta-pe-baza-cererii-energie-termica-util-(MzQxNTA2).htm



http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/legea_139_2010_modificarea_completarea_legii_220_2008_sistemul_promovare_producerii_energiei_surse_regenerabile.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/legea_139_2010_modificarea_completarea_legii_220_2008_sistemul_promovare_producerii_energiei_surse_regenerabile.php

http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/legea_performatei_energetice_cladirilor.php



http://www.minind.ro/domenii_sectoare/leg_armonizata/energie/EnergyLAW13_2007_27_07.pdf

http://www.minind.ro/domenii_sectoare/leg_armonizata/energie/EnergyLAW13_2007_27_07.pdf

OOPTIMISTICPTIMISTIC (OPT) S (OPT) SCENARIOCENARIO (2000 – 2050) (2000 – 2050) OPT Scenario descriptionOPT Scenario description

General commentsGeneral comments The Opt scenario is structured by: i) the mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that the

country has set into force after 1st January 2011; ii) additional policy instruments in line with the EU climate change policy that can be adjusted to the needs and priorities of the examined country23 and iii) the maximum exploitation of the potential of the country in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.

The main characteristics of this policy portfolio is the promotion of RES, the continuation of the nuclear program (the finalization of the Unit 3 and 4 of the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant with an installed capacity of about 1400 MW both until 202024), the realization of the National Investment Plan, the introduction of energy efficiency measures in all sectors, the use of domestic resources in order to assure the security of supply, the encouragement of investments through the JI Mechanism, GIS and EU – ETS and the implementation of adaptation activities.

Policy portfolio for this scenarioPolicy portfolio for this scenario

Existing policy instrumentsThe policy instruments that form the policy portfolio of the BAU scenario are also

included in this scenario, but with the following modifications due to the update of certain Laws.

The new Energy law 123/2012, regulating the field of electricity and natural gases (Official Journal - 485/2012) Official Gazette No. 485 of July 16, 2012, dated and entered into force on July 19, 2012 [2].

The legislation for the energy sector has been substantially amended through the enactment of Law no. 123/2012 (“Energy Law”), regarding energy and natural gas. Various institutions and principles specific to this field were amended so that the national legislation to be in line with the European Commission regulations. Thus, the Energy Law implements into the national legislation the provisions of Directive no. 2009/72/EC and Directive no. 2009/73/EC regarding the sole energy, respectively natural gas market.

The Energy Law regulates the gradual liberalization of the energy market and it also provides a competitive mechanism for its operation, implementing the following general rules: the elimination of regulated tariffs, the “unbundling” principle (by adopting the independent system operator model), and the protection of final customers or ensuring the access to energy networks in a transparent and non-discriminatory manner.

The Energy Law imposes a precise calendar for the liberalization of the regulated market (and the correspondent elimination of regulated tariffs). The supply of electricity on the regulated market shall start by 31st of December, 2013, for non-household clients, and for final clients that have not exercised their eligibility right, for household and non-household clients having a medium number of employees under 50 and a maximum turnover of EUR 10 million, by 31st of December, 2017. The elimination of the regulated tariffs shall start as of 1st

23 Albania, Moldova, Serbia and Ukraine are Contracting Parties of the Energy Community and have committed to comply with the EU energy policy (http://www.energy-community.org/portal/page/portal/ENC_HOME). This commitment concerns also climate change policy due to policy instruments that support the usage of technologies for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. Armenia and Turkey are observers to this Treaty. 24 Energy Strategy for the period 2011 –2035 (document in discussion on the Ministry of Economy and Business Environment), available at: http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/strategia_energetica_20112035_20042011.pdf


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of September, 2012, for non-household clients, and as of 1st of July, 2013, for household clients.

Also the law promotes the electricity production from RES and cogeneration with high efficiency with support schemes applied in accordance with European legislation.

Regarding the new criteria for cogeneration, they were redefined so as cogeneration to be qualified as high efficient, and promote the electrical energy production. Thus, the qualification of high efficiency cogeneration shall be made distinctly, depending on the installed electrical power, as follows:

For the units having installed electrical power of over 25 MW: minimum yearly global efficiency 70% and yearly saving of an energy quantity of at least 10% compared to the reference values;

For the units having installed electrical power between 1 MW and 25 MW: yearly saving of an energy quantity of at least 10% compared to the reference values;

For units having installed electrical power below 1 MW: only the condition regarding the energy saving (without specifying a particular quantity) is imposed.

Policy instruments for the promotion of RES

The trading of green certificates represents the mechanisms that support the production of electricity from RES in Romania.

For the Opt scenario according to GEO 88/2011 - Official Journal no. 736/19.10.2011, the producers of electricity from RES will receive (the number of GC is different compared to BAU):

- 3 green certificates for every 1 MWh produced and delivered in the electric power network from new hydroelectric stations/groups with a maximum output of 10 MW;

- 2 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network from refurbished hydroelectric stations/groups with a maximum output of 10 MW;

- 1 green certificate for every 2 MWh delivered in the electric power network from hydroelectric stations with an installed power between 1 and 10 MW, which do not fall under the provisions of the previous paragraph;

- 2 green certificates, until 2017, and 1 green certificate, starting from 2018, for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electric power from wind energy;

- 3 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electricity from biomass, biogas, bio liquid, waste fermentation gas, geothermal power and associated combustible gases;

6 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electricity from solar power [3].

Additional policy instruments Romania as European Union Member State will implement the EU energy Climate

Change package and the respective EU climate policy instruments. These policy instruments are presented in the following groups:

Policy instruments for mitigation activities

Policy instruments for energy efficiencyThe Romanian Government already transposed the following directives:


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- Directive 2010/30/EU on the indication by labeling and standard product information of the consumption of energy and other resources by energy-related products (transposed by GD 217/2012 - Official Journal no 204 /28.03. 201225).

It incorporates into national legislation Directive 2010/30/EU on the indication by labelling and standard product information of the consumption of energy and other resources by energy-related products. This decision establishes the requirements for standard product information on energy consumption and, where relevant, other essential resources during use, and additional information on energy-related products to be indicated by labeling and are intended for end users to enable them to choose more efficient products. This decision shall apply to energy-related products directly or indirectly impact on energy consumption and, where relevant, other essential resources during use. This decision does not apply to:

a) Second hand products;

b) Means of transport of persons or goods;

c) Indicator plate or equivalent technical characteristics or attached to the products for safety reasons

- Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings.

The purpose of law 372/2005 is the promotion of energy efficiency of buildings, taking into account outdoor climatic and site conditions, the internal temperature requirements and economic efficiency.

The GEO 114/2009 refers to the Art. 23 of Law no. 372/2005 on the energy performance of buildings, and stipulates that the development of energy performance certificates and making them available to potential buyers or tenants by owners, if selling or renting single family homes and apartments in blocks of flats, apply starting on January 1, 2011

In 2012 Romanian Government published the following main modifications of law 372/2005:

- the obligation to display the energy performance certificates in buildings owned by / under the administration of public authorities or institutions providing public services, with a useful floor area of 500 sqm; from July 9, 2015, the requirement will also apply to buildings with a useful floor area of over 250 square meters owned by / under the administration of public authorities or institutions providing public services;

- the obligation of providing the energy performance certificate on selling, buying or renting of buildings / existing building units (such as, for example, apartments in blocks of flats) as well as of submitting it to the reception of new buildings completion;

- the establishment, through the State Construction Inspectorate (STI), of the control of energy performance certificates, of energy audit reports and inspection reports for the heating and / or air conditioning systems;

- the obligation to analyse the use of RES systems at new buildings construction as well as when doing major renovations at existing buildings;

- the investors and designers obligation to take all measures so that starting from December 31, 2020, all new buildings to be nearly zero energy buildings;

- the creation of specific energy efficiency databases for buildings aimed at providing the input data for national plans for energy saving and CO2 reduction and the use of renewable energy sources [5].

Policy instruments for the transport sector25http://legestart.ro/Hotararea-217-2012-stabilirea-cerintelor-indicarea-prin-etichetare-informatii-standard-despre-produs-consumului-energie-alte-resurse-produselor-impact-energetic-modifica-(NjAzNjU1).htm


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The following ways for GHG reductions can be considered:- reducing energy consumption through projects on upgrading passenger and goods

railroad transport;- increasing the quality of public transportation, for the use thereof in the detriment of

transport by private vehicles;- expanding public transportation through new routes;- increasing the efficiency of traffic and parking; - means of public transportation for employees, ensured by the beneficiary economic

companies;- a larger development of means of transportation on tracks within urban transportation

(trams, trolleys);- increasing the energy efficiency of vehicles by establishing minimum efficiency

criteria;- introducing normative acts supporting the most efficient and clean vehicles;- using gaseous fuels and biofuels in transport.

In order to perform the above mentioned measures, an essential component is represented by the education of the population for the wide scale acceptance and implementation thereof.

The use of bio-fuels at larger scale for transport is only a part from the package of measures needed to achieve the commitments set out within the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC, and also from legislative package on energy and climate change. Promotion of the production and use of bio-fuels contributes to the reduction of GHG emissions. Through this certain measure it is expected to replace the use of petrol fuel and diesel fuel by bio-fuels aiming to achieve the following objectives: fulfilling the commitments regarding the reduction of GHG, ensuring security of energy supply while paying attention to environment issues, increasing energy independence and promoting the use of RES.

The adaptation of the Romanian transport sector to climate change impacts should take into account the use of technologies by focusing on increased safety standards, and ensuring continuity of services. In order to implement these measures it is increased the need to invest into designing vehicles that can withstand the adverse effects of climate change. The new transport infrastructure and means of transport should be designed, beginning with the design phase, in order to be resilient to the effects of the climate change.

Policy instruments for promoting biofuels – transport and agricultural sectors

In Romania there are policies and legal framework for promoting the use of biofuels in the transport sector. The use of biofuels will lead to the increase of energy efficiency and also to the GHG emissions reductions.

The “National Strategy for a sustainable transport for the period 2007-2013 and 2020, 2030” developed in 2008 by the Ministry of Transport stipulates the need for a more efficient use of fuels in the transport sector, the use of biofuels and the replacement of the old cars/buses/ trains.

Also the Romanian Ministry of Environment has ongoing a program called “Rabla” for the replacement of the old park of cars with new modern ones. The object of this program is the grant from Environmental Fund, awarded in the form of the disposal bonus for new car purchase, less polluting, on surrender to dispose of used vehicles.

The purpose of the program is to improve the environmental quality through national car park renewal.

The program aims to achieve the following environmental objectives of general interest:

a) mitigation of the effects of pollution on the environment and human health caused by exhaust emissions from old vehicles;


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b) mitigation of soil and water pollution caused by spills of hazardous substances from waste vehicles.

Promotion of Biofuels and bioliquids (GD 935/2011 - Official Journal no. 716/11.10 201126)

This decision sets binding national targets for energy from RES in transport and sustainability criteria for biofuels and bio-liquids. This decision aims to promote the use of biofuels and other renewable fuels to replace gasoline or diesel to help meet commitments on climate change, ensuring security in the supply of gasoline and diesel products under conditions compatible with the environment and promote the use of renewable energy sources.

The Romanian government sustains the European initiative in terms of biofuel production and created the legislative framework to support the use of biofuels. Romania's strategy aims to use biofuels for a minimum of 2% share of total transport fuel use before 2007 and a minimum of 5,75% of biofuels by the end of 2010. Romanian strategy on biofuels is based on the use of biofuels as a mixed component in motor fuel.

Policy instruments for emission trading EU ETS

In its third phase (2013-2020), emissions allowances can no longer be granted for free to power plants and these would have to instead purchase them through auctions or on the secondary market. Only new member states will continue to be allowed to give out a limited number of free emissions allowances to domestic eligible power plants until 2019 in order to help these countries cope more easily with the high costs of transitioning to a low-carbon electricity sector.

Romania meets the requirement included in article 10c.(1)(c) stipulating the following: “in 2006, over 30% of electricity was generated from fossil fuels and the GDP per capita did not exceed 50% of the average GDP per capita in relation to the Community market prices”. Thus, Romania was one of the eight new EU member states to apply to the European Commission for free allowances in September last year. Romania's application was approved by the European Commission - DG Climate on July 6, 2012.

The total installed capacity corresponding to investments in National Investments Plan is of 6944,1 MW, out of which 5309,1 MW represents new capacities and 1635 MW represents rehabilitation of existing capacities27. The National Investments Plan is established so that its value is higher than the counter value of allowances granted free of charge, so the value of the Romanian National Investments Plan is 6724,887 million Euro. The free allowances are expected to contribute to the de-carbonization and diversification of the national electricity production systems.

JI

Until January 2010, 16 JI projects were approved and are in different stages of development. The total quantity of emission reductions to be generated by these projects is about 14 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (for the period 2008-2012 and onwards, in some cases starting before 2008) [6].

The continuation of the Joint Implementation Mechanism (JI) set by the Kyoto Protocol is another priority for Romania’s post 2012 climate policy.

Policy instruments for promoting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies

26GD 935/2011 - Official Journal no. 716/11.10 2011, available at: http://legestart.ro/Hotararea-935-2011-promovarea-utilizarii-biocarburantilor-biolichidelor-(NTkzNTcy).htm27http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/Template_for_application_final_RO_r1_v2_26082011.pdf


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The competitive advantages present in Romania with respect to the CCS value chain, are the relevant technical expertise, competent operators, available infrastructure and vast CO2

storage capacity. Commercial opportunities exist, such as using CO2 for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) offering Romania the opportunity to develop CCS capabilities while recovering a valuable resource.

CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) offer the potential to radically reduce CO2 emissions from large point sources such as coal-and gas-fired power plants and energy-intensive industrial facilities. In this way it can play an important role as a transition technology by securing access to more competitive sources of energy during the long transition to renewable energies.

Also, CCS could limit the exposure of the Romanian energy sector to emission allowance liabilities.

The Romanian government has already recognized the potential importance of the demonstration programme, and has positioned itself at the forefront of the NER300 program. The Getica CCS project has been proposed as a flagship European demonstration project, demonstrating capture transport and the permanent storage of 1,5 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

This first Romanian demonstration CCS facility is proposed to be retro-fitted to the 330 MW lignite-fired power unit no.6, owned by the Turceni Energy Complex. The CO2 capture facility is to be based on post-combustion capture technology, removing CO2 from the flue gases using the chilled ammonia process. Captured CO2 would be transported via pipeline to a deep saline storage site within 50 km of the power plant [7].

Policy instruments for adaptation needsPolicy instruments for water management

The same as in the BAU scenario (Romania has transposed the provisions of Directive 2007/ 60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks).

Policy instruments for forest management

Romania’s forests constitute a valuable natural and renewable resource with the potential to contribute positively to national economic development and the well being of Romanian citizens. Forests cover approximately 27% of Romania’s land area and include some of the last and largest tracts of natural and virgin old-growth forests still remaining in Europe [6].

The national forest policy and development strategy of Romania has as main objective the development of the forestry sector to increase its contribution to the improvement in the quality of life, based on the sustainable management of the forest resource.

Forest management activity refers to forest fund land for which a management plan has been set up and the forest regime is implemented. Such lands are managed according to management plans, continually surveyed for disturbances; forest harvesting is subject to planning; forest regeneration is closely and intensively assisted. Such lands are mapped, landmarked and annually up-dated in statistics. The forestry regime relies primarily on the forest law, then in subsequent legislation and technical norms, in order to ensure sustainable forests management at national scale [8].

According to the National Afforestation Program28 during the period 2010 - 2035 the forested areas are expected to increase with 422000 ha, which requires a financial effort amounting to 3519600 thousand RON.

Dissemination policy instruments for climate change Raising awareness campaigns for climate change (energy efficient behavior, eco-driving,

walking, bike-cycling modes).28 http://mmediu.ro/file/17.11.2010_Programul-National-Impadurire.pdf


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Main characteristics of this policy portfolioMain characteristics of this policy portfolioThis policy portfolio established mitigation targets in all sectors. It is oriented towards the

principles of the EU climate change policy and adjusted according to the needs of Romania. Its ambitious targets can be achieved with an intense recovery of the economy after the economic and financial crisis and with GDP growth rates over 5%/year. Only in these conditions the economy can sustain more intensely the investments in energy efficiency on the whole chain measures, the promotion of E-RES and improvements in the energy sector for reducing the GHG emissions.

The main characteristics of this policy portfolio are the penetration of all types of renewable energy sources, the achieving of the nuclear program, the continuing use of national coal (lignite) but in modernized and new capabilities with high performances, the import of natural gas / hard coal for new power plants with high performance for closure of the energy and power balance, the promotion of energy efficiency in all sectors, and the adoption of all expected technological improvements. Adaptation needs of the country are considered not only individually, but also in conjunction with mitigation activities.

The key assumptions are presented below.


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Key assumptionsKey assumptionsThe key assumptions used for the development of this scenario are developed based on

their historical trends. The categories of the key parameters are common for all scenarios and are divided as follows:

DemographicsThe version “medium variant” of the population projections was used for the OPT scenario

(table 8, figure 16).

Table 7: United Nations projections for the Romanian population (UN, 2010).


20102010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2030-2035

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

Medium -0,26 -0,23 -0,26 -0,30 -0,41 -0,46 -0,46 -0,58


EconomyGross Domestic ProductFor the Opt scenario the GDP growth rates is as in BAU scenario:

Table 8: GDP evolution in Opt – Annual percent change29 (%).

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014Annual percent change of GDP (%) 2,2 0,8 2,2 2,7

29http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tec00115


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GDP distribution per sectorThe GDP distribution per sector was based on the historical data. This distribution was assumed to follow the growth rate of the GDP (figure 18).


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Average annual household income While, generally, an increase is noticed through the decade 2000-2010, the last two years

there is a slight decrease. The growth rate of this variable is assumed to be equal to the growth rate of GDP per capita. In figure 19 the evolution of the average annual household income is presented.



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IndustryFor all industry the demand will follow the growth rate of GDP real, adjusted with the energy savings measures as energy efficiency plans presented.

Climate StatisticsPrecipitation

For the Opt scenario the assumption is a decrease with 3% until 2050.

TemperatureFor the Opt scenario the assumption is an increasing at 13,5oC by 2050.

Frequency of extreme events

No assumption.

Water resourcesThe water resources will follow the historical growth.

Policies and MeasuresQuota – Green certificate scheme

See the BAU scenario.

Land managementFor the Opt scenario an increase of forest area with 422000 ha until 203530 was taken into

consideration (figure 20).

Figure 20: Land management.

Global trends

30 http://mmediu.ro/file/17.11.2010_Programul-National-Impadurire.pdf


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Crude oil priceProjections for the crude oil prices from the Reference scenario of the IEA, World Energy

Outlook 2010 will be used.

Natural gas priceProjections for the crude oil prices from the Reference scenario of the IEA, World Energy


EUA priceProjections of the EUA price will be used based on the relevant literature.

ERU priceProjections of the EUA price.

CER priceProjections of the ERU price are similar to those of the EUA price.

Adaptation

Water UseA growth rate of 1% for households water use has been made used.


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Energy savings measures are implemented under the Opt scenario. The evolution of the household’s energy demand is shown in figure 21 by various types of fuels and electricity.


AgricultureEnergy savings measures are implemented under the Opt scenario. The energy demand

growth will follow the trend of the GDP growth. The evolution of the agriculture’s energy demand is shown in figure 22 by various types of fuels and electricity.


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IndustryEnergy savings measures are implemented under the Opt scenario. The energy demand

growth in industry will follow the trend of the GDP growth. Fuel shares are considered steady since no policy instrument is applied. The evolution of the industry’s energy demand is shown in figure 23.

Figure 23: Industry’s total fuels demand.


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ServicesEnergy savings measures are implemented under the Opt scenario. The energy demand

growth in services will follow the trend of the GDP growth. Fuel shares are considered steady since no policy instrument is applied. The evolution of fuels demand in services sector in Opt scenario will have the following trends, presented in figure 24.

Figure 24: Services’ total fuels demand.

Transport Energy savings measures are implemented under the Opt scenario. The energy demand

growth in transport will follow the trend of the GDP growth. Fuel shares are considered steady since no policy instrument is applied. The evolution of fuels demand in services sector in Opt scenario will have the following trends, presented in figure 25.


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It is estimated that in the future these losses will be reduced due to the modernization of the power grid and of the natural gas grid infrastructure. For the Opt scenario the T&D losses will decrease with 1% until 2050 (figure 26).


Electricity generation For the Opt scenario it was considered the finalization until 2020 of the units 3 and 4 of the

NPP Cernavoda, the realization of the National Action plan for Renewable energy Sources and the complete realization of the investment stipulated in the National Investment Plan. The evolution of electricity and heat production is presented in figure 27.


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Figure 27: Evolution of electricity production by fuel types31.


Coal transformationNo data available for coal transformation.

Oil RefiningAs in BAU scenario.



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Figure 28: The evolution of GHG emissions per sector.

It can be noticed that the GHG emissions will increase until 2050 to 163,80 mil. tonnes CO2

equiv.



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ReferencesReferences1. ISPE, 2011. Promitheas 4 Report - Overview of the Mitigation/Adaptation Policy Instruments

in Romania, available at: http://www.promitheasnet.kepa.uoa.gr/Promitheas4/images/library/3.2/wp3.2romania.pdf

2. Romanian Parliament - The Energy Law 123/2012 - Official Journal - 485/2012, available at: http://www.legalis.ro/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Legea_123_2012_a_energiei_electrice_si_a_gazelor_naturale.pdf

3. Romanian Government GEO 88/2011 - Official Journal no. 736/19.10.2011, available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_88_2011_modificare_stabilirea_sistemului_promovare_producere_energie_surse_regenerabile_energie.php

4. Energy Strategy for the period 2011 –2035 (document in discussion on the Ministry of Economy and Business Environment web site: http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/strategia_energetica_20112035_20042011.pdf

5. Press communicate, available at: http://www.mdrt.ro/comunicare/presa/comunicate/guvernul-a-aprobat-modificari-in-legea-nr.-372-2005-privind-performanta-energetica-a-cladirilor

6. Bucharest, January 2010 - 5th National Communication of Romania, available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rou_nc5_resbmit.pdf

7. Getica CCS project, available at: http://www.getica-ccs.ro/index.php/english8. Ministry of Environment and Forests & National Environmental Protection Agency, 2012.

Romania’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1989-2010, National Inventory Report, v.1.2, March 2012, available at: http://www.anpm.ro/upload/63481_NIR-NGHGI%202012%20v.%201.2.pdf

9. WEC Central & Eastern Europe energy forum – FOREN 2012 - Assessment of environmental impact of Romanian energy sector - mitigation policies in accordance with the EU strategy, PhD. Anca Popescu, Eng. Anca Bardici


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http://www.getica-ccs.ro/index.php/english


http://www.mdrt.ro/comunicare/presa/comunicate/guvernul-a-aprobat-modificari-in-legea-nr.-372-2005-privind-performanta-energetica-a-cladirilor

http://www.mdrt.ro/comunicare/presa/comunicate/guvernul-a-aprobat-modificari-in-legea-nr.-372-2005-privind-performanta-energetica-a-cladirilor


http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_88_2011_modificare_stabilirea_sistemului_promovare_producere_energie_surse_regenerabile_energie.php


http://www.legalis.ro/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Legea_123_2012_a_energiei_electrice_si_a_gazelor_naturale.pdf



PPESSIMISTICESSIMISTIC (PES) S (PES) SCENARIOCENARIO (2000 – 2050) (2000 – 2050)PES Scenario descriptionPES Scenario description

General commentsGeneral comments One of the major priorities of the Romanian Government is to increase the quality of life

and of the environment in human communities, in order to reduce the gap compared to other EU Member States, as well as the gap between development regions. This involves reducing the risk of natural disasters and increasing the level of public safety, preserving biodiversity and the natural heritage and promoting a more competitive and efficient economy in terms of use of resources.

In this context, the policy of economic development must be judiciously correlated with the major objective regarding the fight against climate change in order to support the transition towards a low carbon emissions economy and also with the implementation of principles regarding the sustainable development to all the sectoral policies [1].

The Pes scenario is structure by: i) the mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that the country has set into force after 1st January 2011; ii) no other additional policy instruments apart from those already decided to be implemented and in line with the EU climate change policy; the EU policy instruments will be adjusted to the needs and priorities of the examined country and iii) the minimum exploitation of the potential of Romania in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources by limiting the possible technological options only to the energy and transport sector and to wind and hydropower. These are the sectors with the highest potential in energy efficiency and these are the most promising for the country types of RES.

For the Pes scenario the targets regarding the GHG reduction, the RES penetration and the energy efficiency remain the same as in BAU scenario. The whole spectrum of mitigation options and adaptation needs as presented in the BAU scenario will be taken into account.

The main characteristics of this policy portfolio is the promotion of Renewable Energy Sources, the introduction of energy efficiency measures in all sectors, the encouragement of investments through the JI Mechanism and EU – ETS, the implementation of adaptation activities

Policy portfolio for this scenarioPolicy portfolio for this scenarioExisting policy portfoliosThe policy instruments that form the policy portfolio of the BAU scenario are also

included in this scenario, but with the following modifications due to the update of certain Laws.

The new law 123/2012, regulating the field of electricity and natural gases (Official Journal - 485/2012)

The legislation with respect to energy has been substantially amended through the enactment of Law regarding energy and natural gas no. 123/2012 (“Energy Law”), various institutions and principles specific to this field being amended so that the national legislation is in line with the European regulations. Thus, the Energy Law implements into the national legislation the provisions of Directive no. 2009/72/EC and Directive no. 2009/73/EC regarding the sole energy, respectively natural gas market.

The Energy Law regulates the gradual liberalization of the energy market and it also provides a competitive mechanism for its operation, implementing the following general rules: the elimination of regulated tariffs, the “unbundling” principle (by adopting the


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independent system operator model), and the protection of final customers or ensuring the access to energy networks in a transparent and non-discriminatory manner.

The Energy Law imposes a precise calendar for the liberalization of the regulated market (see the opt scenario).

Policy instruments for mitigation activitiesPolicy instruments for the energy sector

- promotion of RES through the policy instruments already in force represented by the trading with GCs;

The trading of green certificates represents one of the mechanisms that support the production of electricity from RES in Romania.

For the PES scenario according to GEO 88/2011 - Official Journal no. 736/19.10.2011, the producers of electricity from RES will receive (the number of GC is different compared to BAU, but the same with opt scenario):

3 green certificates for every 1 MWh produced and delivered in the electric power network from new hydroelectric stations/groups with a maximum output of 10 MW;

2 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network from refurbished hydroelectric stations/groups with a maximum output of 10 MW;

1 green certificate for every 2 MWh delivered in the electric power network from hydroelectric stations with an installed power between 1 and 10 MW, which do not fall under the provisions of the previous paragraph;

2 green certificates, until 2017, and 1 green certificate, starting from 2018, for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electric power from wind energy;

3 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electricity from biomass, biogas, bio liquid, waste fermentation gas, geothermal power and associated combustible gases;

6 green certificates for every 1 MWh delivered in the electric power network by the producers of electricity from solar power [3].

- support the energy efficiency

The energy efficiency is a strategic objective contained in the Romanian energy strategy. The sustainable development will be achieved among others through the increasing of energy efficiency [4].

The Romanian Government already transposed the following directives:

Directive 2010/30/EU on the indication by labeling and standard product information of the consumption of energy and other resources by energy-related products.

Directive 2010/31/EU on the energy performance of buildings.

The purpose of law 372/2005 is the promotion of energy efficiency of buildings, taking into account outdoor climatic and site conditions, the internal temperature requirements and economic efficiency.


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In 2012 Romanian Government published the modifications of the law 372/2005 (see opt scenario).

Policy instruments for the transport sector

The following ways for GHG reductions can be considered:- reducing energy consumption by rail modernization projects of passenger and freight;- increase the quality of public transport in order to use it to the prejudice of transport

by private car; - means of transportation for employees, provided by employers; - greater development of means of transport by rolling in the urban transport (trams,

buses); - introducing legislation to support the most efficient and clean vehicles; - gaseous fuels and biofuels in transport.

Policy instruments for emission trading

- EU – ETS through accomplishment of the National Investments Plan for the thermal power sector [5];

- JI projects.

Policy instruments for promoting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies

This first Romanian demonstration CCS facility is proposed to be retrofitted to the 330 MW lignite-fired power unit no. 6, owned by the Turceni Energy Complex. The CO2 capture facility is to be based on post-combustion capture technology, removing CO2 from the flue gases using the chilled ammonia process. Captured CO2 would be transported via pipeline to a deep saline storage site within 50 km of the power plant [6].

Adaptation

- Flood Directive as in the BAU scenario description;

Main characteristics of this scenarioMain characteristics of this scenarioIn this scenario the key drivers are assumed to be developed based on their historical

trends towards the EU energy policy. Therefore, any EU Directives that were not implemented before January 1st 2011 will be considered for this scenario.

The economic growth is much lower in this scenario and the worse negative impacts of climate change for Romania will be taken into account.

The low economic development leads to lack of funds for investment in hydropower and biomass. Energy demand will be lower so that the existing capabilities will meet this demand, without the need for investment in new capacity.

The low growth rate of the economy will also cause a lack of necessary funds for adaptation to climate change mainly for the sectors: energy, industry and agriculture.


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Key assumptionsKey assumptionsThe key assumptions used for the development of this scenario are estimated based on

their historical trends. The categories of the key parameters are common for all scenarios and are divided as follows:

DemographicsThe version “medium variant” of the population projections was used for the Pessimistic

scenario (table 10, figure 29).

Table 9: United Nations projections for the Romanian population (UN, 2010).


20102010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2030-2035

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

Medium -0,26 -0,23 -0,26 -0,30 -0,41 -0,46 -0,46 -0,58


EconomyGross Domestic Product

The growth rates are as in Table 9. The evolution of GDP is presented in figure 30.


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GDP distribution per sectorThe GDP distribution per sector was based on the historical data. This distribution was

assumed to follow the growth rate of the GDP. In figure 31 the evolution of GDP distribution per sector is presented.


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Average annual household income The growth rate of this variable is assumed to be equal to the growth rate of GDP per

capita. In figure 32 the evolution of the average annual household income is presented.



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IndustryFor all industry the demand will follow the growth rate of GDP real, adjusted with the

energy savings measures as energy efficiency plans presented.

Climate StatisticsPrecipitation

For the Pes scenario the assumption is a decrease with 5% until 2050.

TemperatureFor the Pes scenario the assumption is an increasing at 15,5oC by 2050

Frequency of extreme events

No assumption.

Water resourcesThe water resources will follow the historical growth.

Policies and MeasuresQuota – Green Certificate

The GC price will follow the growth rate of the GDP.

Land managementNo assumption.

Global trendsCrude oil price

Projections for the crude oil prices from the Reference scenario of the IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010 will be used.

Natural gas priceProjections for the crude oil prices from the Reference scenario of the IEA, World Energy


EUA priceAs in BAU scenario.

ERU priceProjections of the EUA price will be used.

CER priceProjections of the ERU price are similar to those of the EUA price.

AdaptationWater Use

Not available.


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Energy savings measures are implemented under the Pes scenario but with low growth rate. The evolution of the household’s energy demand is shown in figure 33.


AgricultureEnergy savings measures are implemented under the Pes scenario but with low growth

rate. The energy demand growth will follow the trend of the GDP growth. The evolution of the agriculture’s energy demand is shown in figure 34.


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IndustryEnergy savings measures are implemented under the Pes scenario but with low growth

rate. The energy demand growth will follow the trend of the GDP growth. The evolution of the industry’s energy demand is shown in figure 35.

Figure 35: Industry’s total fuels demand.

Services


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Energy savings measures are implemented under the Pes scenario but with low growth rate. The energy demand growth will follow the trend of the GDP growth. The evolution of the service’s energy demand is shown in figure 36.

Figure 36: Services’ total fuels demand.

Transport Energy savings measures are implemented under the Pes scenario but with low growth

rate. The energy demand growth will follow the trend of the GDP growth. The evolution of the transport’s energy demand is shown in figure 37.


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It is estimated that in the future these losses will be reduced due to the modernization of the power grid and of the natural gas grid infrastructure. For the Pes scenario the T&D losses will decrease with 0,5% until 2050 (figure 38).


Electricity generation For the Pes scenario only the achievement of the National Action Plan for Renewable

Energy Sources was considered. The evolution of electricity and heat production is presented in figure 39.


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Figure 39: Evolution of electricity generation by fuel type32.


Coal transformationNo data available for coal transformation.

Oil RefiningAs in BAU scenario.



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Figure 40: GHG emissions per sector.

It can be noticed that the GHG emissions will increase until 2050 to 155,45 mil. tonnes CO2

equiv, but this value is smaller than the value of GHG emissions from 1989 (the base year for Romania in the context of Kyoto protocol which is 278,3 mil. tonnes CO2 equiv.33).


33 http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/kp_data_unfccc/base_year_data/items/4354.php


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ReferencesReferences

1. Romanian Government - NATIONAL REFORM PROGRAMME - 2011 – 2013, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nrp/nrp_romania_en.pdf

2. Romanian Parliament - The Energy Law 123/2012 (Official Journal - 485/2012), available at: http://www.legalis.ro/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Legea_123_2012_a_energiei_electrice_si_a_gazelor_naturale.pdf

3. Romanian Government GEO 88/2011 - Official Journal no. 736/19.10.2011, available at: http://www.dreptonline.ro/legislatie/oug_88_2011_modificare_stabilirea_sistemului_promovare_producere_energie_surse_regenerabile_energie.php

4. Energy Strategy for the period 2011 –2035 (document in discussion on the Ministry of Economy and Business Environment), available at: http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/strategia_energetica_20112035_20042011.pdf

5. http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/ Template_for_application_final_RO_r1_v2_26082011.pdf

6. Getica CCS project, available at: http://www.getica-ccs.ro/index.php/english


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http://www.getica-ccs.ro/index.php/english

http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/Template_for_application_final_RO_r1_v2_26082011.pdf

http://www.minind.ro/dezbateri_publice/2011/Template_for_application_final_RO_r1_v2_26082011.pdf






http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nrp/nrp_romania_en.pdf

RRESULTSESULTS OFOF L LONGONG – R – RANGEANGE E ENERGYNERGY A ALTERNATIVESLTERNATIVES PPLANNINGLANNING S SYSTEMYSTEM (LEAP) (LEAP)DemandDemand

Figure 41: The evolution of the energy demand for the three analysed scenarios.

TransformationTransformation


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Figure 42: The evolution of the electricity generation sector for the three analysed scenarios.

Global warmingGlobal warming

Figure 43: The evolution of the GHG emissions for the three analysed scenarios.


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AASSESSMENTSSESSMENT OFOF THETHE THREETHREE DEVELOPEDDEVELOPED SCENARIOSSCENARIOS FORFOR RROMANIAOMANIA, , THROUGHTHROUGH THETHE MULTIMULTI - - CRITERIACRITERIA METHODMETHOD AMS AMS

General commentsGeneral commentsEach scenario was assessed for its performance under the criteria/sub-criteria of the AMS

method which is the combination of three standard multi-criteria methods: the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and the Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART) (Konidari and Mavrakis, 2007; 2006). AMS is developed for evaluating climate Policy Instruments (PI) or relevant Policy Mixes (PM) and with suitable modification for evaluating their interactions as well.

Required dataRequired dataThe LEAP provides the following outcomes for all three scenarios:

Table 10: Total emissions for the country.

Scenario Total GHG emissions (in MtCO2eq)2000 2020 2050

BAU 81,66 91,23 163,24Opt 81,66 75,21 163,79Pes 81,66 85,72 155,45

Table 11: Emissions per sector for the country.

Scenario GHG emissions (in MtCO2eq)Households

2000 2020 2050BAU 7,53 9,27 23,36Opt 7,53 8,37 22,30Pes 7,53 8,93 22,94AgricultureBAU 0,85 1,13 2,51Opt 0,85 1,12 2,50Pes 0,85 1,12 2,50ServicesBAU 1,75 3,44 7,64Opt 1,75 3,34 7,54Pes 1,75 3,40 7,60IndustryBAU 18,41 16,54 36,78Opt 18,41 13,98 34,01Pes 18,41 15,60 35,84TransportBAU 9,31 17,06 37,94Opt 9,31 15,91 36,60Pes 9,31 16,90 37,77Electricity generationBAU 29,46 31,95 42,62Opt 29,46 20,64 48,45Pes 29,46 27,93 36,40


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Table 12: Other environmental effects for the country under each scenario.

Scenario Thousand Metric Tonnes CO2 eq

2000 2020 2050

Environmental effects (Carbon Monoxide (CO)- Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)- Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds- Sulfur Dioxide)

BAU 29748,48 32294,90 43063,38

Opt 29748,48 20870,26 48939,85

Pes 29748,48 28259,94 36783,44

Table 13: Water Use.

Scenario Billion m3

2000 2020 2050HouseholdsBAU 1,106 0,689 0,689Opt 1,106 0,761 1,026Pes 1,106 0,724 0,841AgricultureBAU 0,046 0,056 0,056Opt 0,046 0,056 0,056Pes 0,046 0,056 0,056IndustryBAU 0,246 0,235 0,235Opt 0,246 0,247 0,287Pes 0,246 0,240 0,254

Assignment of gradesAssignment of gradesThe software ClimAMS-2012 is used (Figure 44) for the evaluation of the scenarios.

Figure 44: Initial settings for the three scenarios in ClimAMS-2012.


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Criterion 1: Environmental performanceThe following grades in MAUT scale are calculated using the software ClimaAMS-2012

for: the first sub-criterion “Direct contribution to GHG emission reductions” and the

outcome of LEAP for the total expected GHG emission of the country in year 2020 (Table 12). The scenario with the fewer amounts of emissions has the best performance for this sub-criterion.

The second sub-criterion “Indirect environmental effects” and the total amount of the total environmental effects provided by LEAP (Table 14).

Figure 45: Grades for the first criterion and its sub-criteria.

Criterion 2: Political acceptabilityEach scenario was evaluated against each of the five sub-criteria of this criterion. For cost efficiency, the MAUT procedure was used again. The scenario with the lowest costs is the most cost effective one and receives grade 100. The LEAP model cannot provide comparable outcomes. For the evaluation of the scenarios under this sub-criterion a Cost Efficient Index was used. Each policy instrument is assigned a value (Cost Efficient Index) that demonstrates its financial ability in pseudo-monetary units to deliver one unit of the requested benefit (one tonne of reductions of CO2 emissions, one gained square meter of forest land, one cubic meter of gained water etc). For the first sub-criterion the mean CEI for each sector was calculated depending on the policy instruments of each scenario. Each value was multiplied with the respective amount of GHG emission reductions that were estimated by LEAP outcomes. In the case of Romania, there were no GHG emission reductions compared to year 2000. For, this reason the BAU scenario was used as the reference point, since the other two scenarios have GHG emission reductions compared to BAU. The GHG emission reductions of OPT and PES compared to the GHG emissions of BAU per sector were calculated and multiplied by the respective CEI (Tables 14 and 15). Results are presented in Table 16.This methodology was adopted since Romania has the obligation to increase its emissions compared to the base year 1990. Therefore, emissions in 2020 for any of the three scenarios were expected to be higher compared to 2000. The efforts of mitigating climate change are reflected to any achieved GHG emission reductions compared to the BAU scenario.


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Table 14: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the policy instruments of the BAU scenario.Mitigation

Scen. Sector Technological options Policy instrument CEI Mean CEI

BA

U

Households Thermal insulation Building isolation requirements (Order 18/2009) -1,5 (-1,5-0,25-0,25-5,75-2,5-2,5)/6 = -2,125Subsidy (Order 18/2009) -0,25

Subsidy (Order 69/2010) -0,25Energy efficient buildings Performance standards ( i)Requirements; ii) Certificates of

building energy performance; iii)energy audits (Law 372/2005 – Ordinance 22/2008)

-5,75

Solar water systems/air conditioning Energy efficient appliances (Law 372/2005) -2,5

Hot water, lighting, heating Energy efficient appliances (Order 69/2010) -2,5

Industry Energy efficient buildings Performance standards ( i)Requirements; ii) Certificates of building energy performance; iii) energy audits (Ordinance 22/2008)

-5,75 (-5,75-3,75-0,5)/3 = -3,33

Best available technologies Combined standards (performance, technological or design standards) (GEO 40/2010 – Law 205/2010)

-3,75

Energy efficiency Tradable permits (Law 554/2006, GD 60/2008, Law 126/2008) -0,5Service Energy efficient buildings Performance standards (i)Requirements; ii) Certificates of

building energy performance; energy audits (Law 372/2005 - Ordinance 22/2008)

-5,75 (-5,75-2,5)/2 =-4,125

Solar water systems/air conditioning Energy efficient appliances (Law 372/2005) -2,5Transport - - - -

Energy High efficiency cogeneration Subsidy (Bonus scheme) (Law 219/2007) -0,25 (-0,25-0,75-0,5-0,5)/4= -0,5Promotion of RES Tradable permits (Green certificates – Economic policy

instruments) (Law 220/2008)-0,75


-0,5

Energy efficiency Tradable permits (Law 554/2006, GD 60/2008, Law 126/2008) -0,5Waste management


-0,5 -0,5


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AdaptationWater management

Regulations - Planning Command and control -1/6

Table 15: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the selected policy instruments.Mitigation

Scen. Sector Technological options Policy instrument CEI Mean CEI

OPT

Households Thermal insulation Building isolation requirements (Order 18/2009) -1,5 (-1,5-0,25-0,25-5,75-2,5-2,5-2,5)/7 = -6.25/7= -2,180Subsidy (Order 18/2009) -0,25



-5,75



Energy performance of appliances Labelling appliances – Performance standards (GD 217/2012) -2,5


-5,75 (-5,75-3,75-0,5)/3 = -3,33


-3,75



-5,75 (-5,75-2,5)/2 =-4,125



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Transport Energy efficiency of vehicles/transportation

Performance standards (transport management) (Proposed 0,5 (0,5-1,75+0,25-0,5-0,25/5= -0,35

Energy efficient vehicles Performance standards (Proposed) -1,75

Biofuels Fuel switch (Proposed) 0,25

Fuel quality Fuel quality standards (Proposed) -0,5

Energy efficient transportation Behavior change (Proposed) -0,25

Energy High efficiency cogeneration Subsidy (Bonus scheme) (Law 219/2007) -0,25 (-0,25-0,75-0,5-0,5)/4=-0,5Promotion of RES Tradable permits (Green certificates – Economic policy



-0,5



-0,5 -0,5


Regulations - Planning Command and control -1/6 -1/6Awareness campaign (Proposed) -1/6

Forests Management Command and control (Proposed) -1/6 -1/6


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Table 16: Mean CEI for each sector depending on the selected policy instruments.

MitigationScen. Sector Technological options Policy instrument CEI Mean CEI

PES

Households Thermal insulation Building isolation requirements (Order 18/2009) -1,5 (-1,5-0,25-0,25-5,75-2,5-2,5-2,5)/7 = -6.25/7= -2,180Subsidy (Order 18/2009) -0,25



-5,75



Energy performance of appliances Labelling appliances – Performance standards (GD 217/2012) -2,5


-5,75 (-5,75-3,75-0,5)/3 = -3,33


-3,75



-5,75 (-5,75-2,5)/2 =-4,125

Solar water systems/air conditioning Energy efficient appliances (Law 372/2005) -2,5Transport Energy efficiency of

vehicles/transportationPerformance standards (transport management) (Proposed +0,5 (0,5+0,25-0,5)/3= +0,25

Biofuels Fuel switch (Proposed) +0,25

Fuel quality Fuel quality standards (Proposed) -0,5

Energy High efficiency cogeneration Subsidy (Bonus scheme) (Law 219/2007) -0,25 (-0,25-0,75-0,5-0,5)/4=-0,5Promotion of RES Tradable permits (Green certificates – Economic policy



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-0,5



-0,5 -0,5


Regulations - Planning Command and control -1/6 -1/6


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Table 17: Overall cost efficiency for the three scenarios.

Scen.Mitigation and Adaptation costs (pesdomonetary units)

TotalHouseholds Industry Services Transport Energy

M A M A M A M A M A

BAU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Opt -1,962 -0,058 -8,525 0 -0,413 0 -0,403 0 -5,655 0 -17,014

Pes -0,741 -0.064 -3,130 -0,01 -0,165 0 +0,04 0 -2,01 0 -6,071

For dynamic cost efficiency, there are no direct, available data from the LEAP model so the SMART procedure will be used. For dynamic cost efficiency – technological improvements are encouraged. RES technologies no others that the usual ones are promoted. Hydro is already a mature technology for the country. In all three scenarios RES technologies are promoted. Only in Opt there is promotion for nuclear, gas and coal technologies. The assigned grades are: BAU – 4, Opt – 7, Pes – 4.For competitiveness there are no available results from LEAP, therefore the SMART procedure was used and grades were assigned. For competitiveness – In the Opt scenario the policy regarding the energy efficiency and the technical improvements lead to the increase of productivity level. As for attracting investors in JI the country offers opportunities. The assigned grades were: BAU – 5, Opt – 7, Pes - 5.For equity the grades were assigned with the MAUT procedure based on the outcomes from the LEAP model. For equity – Since one of the sectors that participate is the Household sector which does not contribute to the GDP of the country the respective ratio cannot be used. Taking into consideration the need to compare the scenarios under a regional level the ratio GHG emission reductions in MtCO2eq to capita is calculated for each scenario. The larger the ratio is the fairer is the scenario in sharing the burden among the sectors. In the Opt scenario almost all sectors participate except for the service sector in contributing to emission reductions.

Table 18: Equity measurement.Scenario Total amount of GHG

emissions (MtCO2eq) in 2020

Reductions compared to

emissions of BAU in year 2020 (MtCO2eq)

Population in 2020

Million people

Ratio reductions tCO2eq per capita

BAU 91,23 0 20,9 0

Opt 75,21 16,02 20,9 0,766

Pes 85,72 5,01 20,9 0,263

For flexibility the grades was assigned with the SMART procedure. The assessment was based on information coming from the national report of Romania for PROMITHEAS-4 project. For flexibility the scenarios are compared towards the incentives and the options that they offer to target groups. The Opt scenario offers more options (financial subsidies, loans with low interest rate) compared to the other two ones. The scenarios were evaluated by assessing the following grades: for BAU – 5, for Opt – 6 and for Pes – 5.For stringency for non-compliance and non-participation the SMART procedure was used again.


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For stringency for non-compliance, the scenarios do not foresee penalties, fees on any other sanctions. The scenarios were evaluated by assessing to the grade 4.

Figure 46: Grades for political acceptability.

Criterion 3: Feasibility of implementationFor the third sub-criterion financial feasibility the assignment of grades followed the SMART procedure. For the implementation network capacity, the all scenarios have a good performance. The existing implementation network provides the necessary information for climate change policy issues in Romania. For the first sub-criterion - implementation network capacity the grades 7 for BAU, 9 for Opt and 8 for Pes were assigned to the scenarios. The implementation network has the capacity to implement the policies because has the good trained personnel and also the appropriate technological infrastructure.There are official reports regarding climate change policy issues for Romania. These reports are updated regularly. For the - Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority the last annual report available is for 201134. The web-sites are friendly and the information is directly accessible. The following entities form the Romanian implementation network:

- Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business Environment35;- Ministry of Environment and Forests36;- National Environmental Protection Agency37;- Natural Agency of Mineral Resources38;- Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority 39;

34 http://www.anre.ro/informatii.php?id=111435 http://www.minind.ro/36 www.mmediu.ro/37 www.anpm.ro38 www.anrm.ro39 www.anre.ro


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- Romanian Transmission and System Operator - Transelectrica40.For administrative feasibility, the scenarios have a poor performance. For Administrative feasibility sub-criterion the grades 5, 5 and 5 are assigned to the scenarios because bureaucratic procedures are still numerous. For financial feasibility, the scenarios have again poor performance. The country has limited incentives for the existing policy instruments. Foreign investments for climate change policy projects can become significant revenue for the government so as to proceed with a better monitoring, management and support towards relevant issues. The current policy portfolio does not perform well under this sub-criterion. The introduction of a levy and a better policy framework for JI projects may improve the situation. This is more likely to happen under the Opt scenario. The grades are: BAU – 5, Opt – 7, Pes – 5.

Figure 47: Grades for feasibility of implementation.

ResultsResultsThe results for each scenario are presented in Table 17.

40 www.transelectrica.ro


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Figure 48: Scenarios prioritization.

Table 19: AMS results for each scenario.

Criteria Scenarios

BAU Opt Pes

Direct contribution to GHG emission reductions (0,833) 0 83,300 28,651

Indirect environmental effects (0,167) 0 16,700 5.899Environmental performance (0,168) - A 0 100,00 34,549

Cost efficiency (0,474) 0 47,300 16,878Dynamic cost efficiency (0,183) 3,029 12,141 3,029

Competitiveness (0,085) 1,885 4,731 1,885Equity (0,175) 0 17,500 6,008

Flexibility (0,051) 1.395 2,210 1,395Stringency for non-compliance (0,032) 1,133 1,133 1,133

Political acceptability (0,738) - B 7,442 85,015 30,329Implementation network capacity (0,309) 6,065 15,225 9,610

Administrative feasibility (0,581) 19,367 19,367 19,367Financial feasibility (0,110) 2,439 6,122 2,439

Feasibility of implementation (0,094) - C 27,871 40,713 31,416Total (A+B+C) 8,571 83,368 31,140

The results for each scenario are presented in Table 17. The final grades demonstrate which of the three M/A policy portfolios has the better performance in responding to the climate change needs of the country taking into consideration the national framework. The Opt scenario has a better environmental outcomes compared to the other two, higher feasibility of implementation, but performs inadequately in the Political acceptability.


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