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COVID-19 Dashboardof Economic Indicators
24 November 2020
2
COVID-19 in België
Evolutie van het aantal opnames in het ziekenhuis
629
879
206
266
5759
7487
5076
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90015
/03/
2020
19/0
3/20
2023
/03/
2020
27/0
3/20
2031
/03/
2020
04/0
4/20
2008
/04/
2020
12/0
4/20
2016
/04/
2020
20/0
4/20
2024
/04/
2020
28/0
4/20
2002
/05/
2020
06/0
5/20
2010
/05/
2020
14/0
5/20
2018
/05/
2020
22/0
5/20
2026
/05/
2020
30/0
5/20
2003
/06/
2020
07/0
6/20
2011
/06/
2020
15/0
6/20
2019
/06/
2020
23/0
6/20
2027
/06/
2020
01/0
7/20
2005
/07/
2020
09/0
7/20
2013
/07/
2020
17/0
7/20
2021
/07/
2020
25/0
7/20
2029
/07/
2020
02/0
8/20
2006
/08/
2020
10/0
8/20
2014
/08/
2020
18/0
8/20
2022
/08/
2020
26/0
8/20
2030
/08/
2020
03/0
9/20
2007
/09/
2020
11/0
9/20
2015
/09/
2020
19/0
9/20
2023
/09/
2020
27/0
9/20
2001
/10/
2020
05/1
0/20
2009
/10/
2020
13/1
0/20
2017
/10/
2020
21/1
0/20
2025
/10/
2020
29/1
0/20
2002
/11/
2020
06/1
1/20
2010
/11/
2020
14/1
1/20
2018
/11/
2020
22/1
1/20
20
Aantal nieuwe opnames (linkeras) Totaal aantal patiënten in het ziekenhuis (rechteras)
3Bron: Sciensano, Belgisch Instituut voor de Volksgezondheid: 24 november 2020.https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Meest%20recente%20update.pdf
1. COVID-19 in België: aantal gehospitaliseerde patiënten daalten bevindt zich op het niveau van halverwege april
4
GDP and confidence indicatorsfor Belgium
80
85
90
95
100
10520
19Q
1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
2021
Q4
2022
Q1
2022
Q2
2022
Q3
2022
Q4
p.m. NBB Autumn 2019 projections NBB Spring 2020 projections Current statistics
5Sources: National Accounts Institute (NAI), National Bank of Belgium (NBB).
Real GDP in Belgium(quarterly data, index 2019Q4=100, unless otherwise stated)
The downturn appears to have been less severe than predicted
2019Q1 0.16
2019Q2 0.31
2019Q3 0.51
2019Q4 0.61
2020Q1 -3.42
2020Q2 -11.82
2020Q3 10.69
Real GDP in Belgium(quarterly data, QoQ growth rate in %)
6
Na 6 maanden van opeenvolgende stijgingen is hetNBB-ondernemersvertrouwen in november verzwakt
-32
-11 (maart)
-36 (april)-34 (mei)
-23 (juni)
-14 (juli)
-9 (okt)-12 (nov)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Brutoreeks Langetermijngemiddelde sinds 1985 Afgevlakte reeks
Algemene synthetische curve
Bron: Nationale Bank van België (NBB), laatst beschikbare gegevens: november 2020, perscommuniqué maandelijkse conjunctuurenquête bij de bedrijven.
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Baromètre de conjoncture – Belgique : Branches d’activité – novembre 2020
Une nette chute est enregistrée dans tous les secteurs, à l’exceptionde l’industrie manufacturière
7
Industrie manufacturière
CommerceConstruction
Services aux entreprises
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Moyenne de long terme (depuis 1980)Série dessaisonalisée et lissée Série dessaisonalisée
Source: Banque nationale de Belgique (BNB), dernières données disponibles: novembre 2020.
-20
-26
-16 -17
-15
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ConsumentenvertrouwenLangetermijngemiddelde sinds 1985Historisch minimum
8
Het consumentenvertrouwen neemt in november enigszins toe
De indicator toonde in april de grootsteverslechtering ooit op maandbasis (eendaling tot -26) en herstelde deels sindsdien
De recente strengere beperkendemaatregelen (die in werking traden opmaandag 2 november, de eerste dag van depeiling) drukten aanvankelijk het vertrouwenvan de gezinnen, waarna dat effect geleidelijkwegebde tijdens de enquêteperiode.
Bron: NBB, laatst beschikbare gegevens: november 2020, perscommuniqué maandelijkse consumentenenquête.
9Source: NBB, replies to November 2020 consumer survey (additional COVID-19 questions).1 Households with losses >10% (22 %) and less than three months savings (34 %) = 7 % of the total of households.2 22 % of total respondents.
How long can you cover your expensesthrough a savings buffer?(in % of the 1 850 respondents, unless otherwise stated)
Is your household sufferinga loss of income?(in % of 1 850 respondents)
Around 22 % of households suffer an income loss of more than 10 %and 34 % of them have a savings buffer of less than 3 months1
Yes:More than >10 %:
22 %
72 70 71 72 71
7 9 9 8 812 13 12 12 136 5 4 5 53 3 4 2 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
No losses < 10% 10-30%
30-50% >50%
12 12 14 13 918 17 20 17 13
22 17 16 15 15
3023 24 21
21
16 20 17 17 18
17 30 20 22 25
50 51 52 55 59
36 30 36 39 41
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Total Households with losses > 10%²Less than 1 month 1 - 3 months4 - 6 months More than 6 months
No losses: 71 %A large majority ofBelgian householdshas been unaffected
(so far)
0
20
40
60
80
100Ju
lAu
gSe
pO
ctN
ov Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Ju
lAu
gSe
pO
ctN
ov Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Belgium (1850respondents)
Flanders (750respondents)
Wallonia (750respondents)
Brussels (350respondents)
No losses < 10% 10 - 30 % 30 - 50% > 50%
10Source: NBB, replies to November 2020 consumer survey (additional COVID-19 questions).
Savings buffer increases in all threeregions but remains lower inWallonia and in Brussels(in % of respondents with loss of income)
In November, higher share of householdssuffering a loss of income in Brussels andin Wallonia(in % of respondents)
Losses of income rise sharply in Brussels
33312529
16 17 19 16 12 11 14 179 9
23 16 21 19 15 1524 20 26
11
26 21 2321
19 20 1618
20 15
35
2428
2421 22
21 22 16
22
18 27 1921
2415
25 1915 16
1633 19 26
28 2521 21 28
28
40 35 39 42 4554
46 4756 59
26 27 31 31 35 39 34 37 3139
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Ju
lAu
gSe
pO
ctN
ov Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Ju
lAu
gSe
pO
ctN
ov
Belgium Flanders Wallonie Brussels
Less than 1 month 1 - 3 months4 - 6 months More than 6 months
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
11Source: Algaba, A., Borms, S., Boudt, K. & Van Pelt, J. (2020). The Economic Policy Uncertainty index for Flanders, Wallonia and Belgium. Research note. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3580000.The index reflects normalized frequency counts of news articles related to economic policy uncertainty, latest available data: October 2020.
Economic Policy Uncertainty index for Belgium(monthly indicator)
Economic policy uncertainty slightly increased again in October andit remains very elevated (close to the level of the global financial crisis)
Belgian governmentformation
April 2020: COVID-19
Belgian government fallsover UN Migration Pact
European debt crisis
Global financial crisis
12
Labour market
13Source: Institut des Comptes Nationaux (ICN), dernières données disponibles: deuxième trimestre 2020.
L’emploi salarié plus durement impacté au 1er semestre 2020 quel’emploi indépendant(emploi en personnes - variation trimestrielle en %)
0,50,4 0,4 0,4
-0,2
-0,7
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
2019-T1 2019-T2 2019-T3 2019-T4 2020-T1 2020-T2
Indépendants Salariés Emploi total
0,3
0,1
0,0
0,0
-0,1
-0,4
-0,4
-0,4
-0,6
-1,7
-1,8
-2,0 -1,5 -1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5
Health and social services
Administration and education
Agriculture
Property business
Construction
Information and communication
Industry
Financial activities
Other services
Trade, hotels and restaurants, transport
Business services
Source: NAI, latest available data: second quarter 2020.14
Impact on employment stronger for some branches of activity(QoQ variation in %)
pm thousandsof people
966
1 000
213
113
562
129
291
60
31
855
654
15Source: Federgon, dernières données disponibles: août 2020.
Chute brutale du travail intérimaire en avril, reprise partielle par après(données mensuelles, en milliers d’heures)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
16Sources: Actiris, Forem, VDAB, dernières données disponibles: octobre 2020.
VDABActiris
Net recul des opportunités d’emplois en avril, puis reprise progressive(moyenne mensuelle des offres d’emplois reçues par les services publics de l’emploi régionaux via le circuit ordinaire)
Forem
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 00020
20 M
120
20 M
220
20 M
320
20 M
420
20 M
520
20 M
620
20 M
720
20 M
820
20 M
920
20 M
10
2019
10M
2020
10M
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2020
M1
2020
M2
2020
M3
2020
M4
2020
M5
2020
M6
2020
M7
2020
M8
2020
M9
2020
M10
2019
10M
2020
10M
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2020
M1
2020
M2
2020
M3
2020
M4
2020
M5
2020
M6
2020
M7
2020
M8
2020
M9
2020
M10
2019
10M
2020
10M
17Source: Federgon, dernières données disponibles (séries dessaisonalisées): octobre 2020.
Les prévisions d’emplois issues des enquêtes de conjoncturerepartent à la hausse(données désaisonnalisées et lissées)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
IndustrieConstruction (gros œuvre de bâtiments)CommerceServices aux entreprises
Série dessaisonalisée et lissée Série dessaisonalisée
Mass redundancy procedures: already above 2019 average
◆ Since lockdown (April 2020)
◇ 83 procedures
◇ 7 721 workers concerned
◆ pm January 2019 – December 2019
◇ 81 procedures
◇ 5 087 workers concerned
18Source: Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue (FPS ELSD), latest data available: 20 November 2020.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Workers (LHS) pm Average 2019 (LHS)
Cases (RHS) pm Average 2019 (RHS)
19Source: NEO, latest available data: September 2020.
Annual variation(monthly data, thousands of people)
Limited rise in unemployment for the time being …
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flanders Wallonia Brussels Belgium
◆ Peak observed in May: +38 000, situation in October: +14 000
20Source: NEO, latest available data: October 2020.
… concentrated on men and educated peopleAnnual variation(monthly data)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Men
Wom
en
Less
than
6 m
onth
s
6-12
mon
ths
1 yea
r and
mor
e
Youn
ger t
han
20
20-3
0 ye
ars
30-5
0 ye
ars
50 a
nd o
lder
Low-
educ
ated
Med
ium
-edu
cate
d
High
ly-ed
ucat
ed
In thousands of people In %
21Source: NEO, latest available data: October 2020.
Temporary unemployment: peak in April, decreasing but still high
93030%
1 14636%
91729%
56118%
33811%
30410% 184
6%
1 033
1 233
986
615
410331 281
419
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
March April May June July August September October
Paymentspm Employer's request (DRS)pm highest level recorded during the financial crisis
Weekly access demands(Employer ’s request (DRS) linked to COVID-19, thousands ofpeople, weekly data)
Average number of days per worker
March April May June July August September8.9 15.5 11.1 9.8 8.6 8.7 9.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
OctoberWeek 1
OctoberWeek 2
OctoberWeek 3
OctoberWeek 4
OctoberWeek 5
Monthly effective use and access demands(payments linked to COVID-19, thousands of people and % of private salariedemployment, p.m. DRS linked to COVID-19, thousands of people, monthly data)
22Source: Federal Public Service Social Security, confidential data, latest available data: October 2020.1 Data related to payments.
Bridging right, provisional data1
(thousands of people and % of self-employed in principal activity)
Self-employed: unprecedent use of financial support
396(53 %)
414(55 %) 379
(51 %)
144(19 %) 106
(14 %)103
(14 %) 64(9 %) 41
(6 %)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
March April May June July August September October
Before the crisis, about 90 self-employed benefited of the bridging right.At the peak of the crisis, in April, they were 414 000.
23Source: Statbel, dernières données disponibles: septembre 2020.1 Les indicateurs mensuels sont sujets à de plus fortes fluctuations aléatoires que les résultats trimestriels et annuels car ils reposent sur un douzième de l’échantillon annuel. Pour juin 2020 par
exemple, il s’agit d’environ 8 600 répondants. Les variations d’une période à l’autre doivent être interprétés avec prudence.
Taux de chômage(15-64)
Taux d’emploi(20-64)
La crise sanitaire a interrompu une dynamique positive(taux harmonisés issus des enquêtes force de travail1)
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
2016
T120
16T2
2016
T320
16T4
2017
T120
17T2
2017
T320
17T4
2018
T120
18T2
2018
T320
18T4
2019
T120
19T2
2019
T320
19T4
2020
T120
20T2
2020
M7
e20
20M
8 e
2020
M9
e
Trimestriel Mensuel
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2016
T120
16T2
2016
T320
16T4
2017
T120
17T2
2017
T320
17T4
2018
T120
18T2
2018
T320
18T4
2019
T120
19T2
2019
T320
19T4
2020
T120
20T2
2020
M7
e20
20M
8 e
2020
M9
e
24
ERMG survey
The ERMG survey allows to monitor the COVID-19 impact oncompanies and self-employed in real time¹◆ Surveys conducted by (selection of) the following federations:
25
Round Period Federations Replies Comment1 23-24 March BECI, UWE, VOKA 1 700 Results not published2 30-31 March BECI, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 725 First press release3 6-7 April BECI, BOERENBOND, NSZ, UNISOC, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 6 900 UNISOC was analysed separately4 14-15 April BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 5005 20-21 April BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 5286 27-28 April BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 2087 5-6 May BECI, BOERENBOND, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 6758 12-13 May BECI, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 1859 25-27 May BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 99310 8-10 June BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 36511 22-24 June BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 13612 17-19 August BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 43013 21-23 September BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 86814 19-21 October BECI, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 13115 9-10 November BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 631
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Note that changes over time should be interpreted with care as the companies participating to the survey and the composition of the sample can differ from one week to another.
-33 -33-36
-33 -34 -32-29 -31
-26-23
-17
-13 -14 -14-17
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
23 M
arch
30 M
arch
6 Ap
ril
13 A
pril
20 A
pril
27 A
pril
5 M
ay
12 M
ay
26 M
ay
9 Ju
ne
23 Ju
ne
18 A
ugus
t
22 S
epte
mbe
r
20 O
ctob
er
10 N
ovem
ber
26Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ This approach excludes the human health industry, the public sector and firms that were identified as belonging to a miscellaneous ‘other’ industry.² Q4 revenue expectations were not asked in the August and September surveys.
Expected impact on Q4 and2021 turnover(in %, weighted average based on revenues andindustry value added¹)
COVID-19 impact on weekly turnover(in %, weighted average based on revenues and industry value added¹)
-10 -10-14
-11-16
-12
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Q4 2021Expectation of Survey 18 AugustExpectation of Survey 22 SeptemberExpectation of Survey 20 OctoberExpectation of Survey 10 November
The direct impact of the second lockdown remains limited for nowbut the outlook for Belgian companies has worsened slightly
March-AprilLockdown
Partial Recovery
NA² NA²
PlateauNovemberLockdown
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Retail sales(non-food)
Real estateactivities
Wholesale Information andcommunication
Agriculture Support services Transportationand logistics
Manufacturing Financial andinsuranceactivities
Retail sales(food)
Construction
April average(Rounds 2-6)
May average(Rounds 7-9)
June average(Rounds 10-11)
Week of August 17(Round 12)
Week of September 22(Round 13)
Week of October 20(Round 14)
Week of November 10(Round 15)
27
Revenue losses are largest for events, accommodation, real estate,retail and wholesale, while other industries are less affected
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.
COVID-19 impact on weekly turnover(in %, weighted average based on revenues)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Retail sales(non-food)
Real estateactivities
Wholesale Information andcommunication
Agriculture Support services Transportationand logistics
Manufacturing Financial andinsuranceactivities
Retail sales(food)
Construction
Week of November 10(Round 15)
Q4 expectation (Round 15)
2021 expectation(Round 15)
28
Worst hit industries expect to only partially recover the losses in 2021,while revenue will also remain below normal for the other industries
Source: Round 14 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.
Expected COVID-19 impact on turnover in the current week, Q4 and in 2021 (Survey 10 November)(in %, weighted average based on revenues)
29Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.² The results for this sector are based on only a few respondents and should therefore be interpreted with caution.
Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on company turnover by industry(in %, weighted average based on revenues)
< -50 %
≥ -10%
-10 to -20 %
Survey30 March
Survey6 April
Survey13 April
Survey20 April
Survey27 April
Survey5 May
Survey12 May
Survey26 May
Survey9 June
Survey23 June
Survey18 Aug
Survey22 Sept
Survey20 Oct
Survey10 Nov
Events and recreation -74 -92 -84 -88 -88 -84 -89 -92 -63 -86 -81 -81 -74 -77Accommodation and food service activities -93 -83 -88 -95 -84 -87 -93 -85 -75 -50 -42 -39 -65 -66Retail sales (non-food) -86 -85 -78 -70 -82 -70 -25 -29 -12 -6 -9 -16 -19 -51Real estate activities -36 -44 -43 -31 -28 -60 -38 0 -9 -21 -10 -24 -12 -37Manufacture of transport equipment² -32 -63 -74 -29 -75 -59 -47 -36 -16 -23 -4 -16 -15 -21Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and shoes -48 -57 -70 -70 -57 -62 -50 -50 -29 -23 -9 -4 -7 -19Wholesale -50 -48 -59 -47 -44 -34 -43 -17 -36 -24 -6 -8 -15 -19Aviation² -20 -40 -77 -63 -53 -61 -87 -88 -57 -6 -34 -32 -13 -15Consultancy -8 -16 -15 -28 -20 -23 -25 -20 -12 -19 -12 -10 -10 -14Manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing -52 -20 -26 -49 -32 -26 -23 -30 -30 -28 -11 -6 -15 -14Road transport (persons) -28 -45 -71 -67 -67 -84 -69 -34 -61 -35 -11 -11 -24 -13Information and communication -15 -21 -18 -23 -21 -29 -43 -27 -30 -17 -9 -21 -8 -13Liberal professions -25 -21 -15 -28 -27 -22 -27 -12 -11 -15 -14 -8 -10 -12Agriculture and fishing -34 -23 -11 1 -3 -33 0 -17 -4 -19 -2 -10 -5 -12Engineering services -34 -62 -13 -30 -27 -20 -16 -14 -10 -17 -10 -25 -21 -12Manufacture of food products -14 -17 -24 -20 -15 -21 -17 -22 -21 -12 -8 -9 -11 -12Logistics -29 -26 -23 -15 -16 -24 -10 -39 -25 -34 -7 -17 -10 -11Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products -43 -9 -17 -37 -34 -14 -27 -27 -9 -21 -43 -21 -10 -11Human Resources -40 -46 -20 -36 -33 -37 -36 -35 -33 -12 -14 -13 -12 -11Metallurgy -21 -12 -34 -18 -33 -31 -25 -36 -27 -31 -25 -24 -18 -10Financial and insurance activities -20 -9 -8 -17 -10 -10 -17 -11 -10 -10 -9 -7 -9 -10Manufacture of plastic and non-metallic products -24 -14 -20 -15 -23 -21 -17 -22 -22 -11 -14 -12 -11 -10Manufacture of machinery and electrical equipment -25 -29 -29 -30 -32 -30 -24 -35 -20 -10 -19 -9 -14 -10Retail sales (food) -3 -4 -8 0 -5 -8 -16 1 -9 -6 1 -11 -1 -9Construction -47 -46 -43 -46 -44 -29 -34 -14 -20 -5 -11 -9 -9 -9Manufacture of pharmaceutical and chemical products -14 -20 -24 -11 -11 -23 -18 -21 -19 -21 -12 -10 -11 -8Manufacture of furniture -61 -63 -80 -58 -67 -36 -60 -30 -21 -6 -19 -19 -1 -7Belgium³ -33 -36 -33 -34 -32 -29 -31 -26 -23 -17 -13 -14 -14 -17
-20 to -50%
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Self-employed 1 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 250 250 - 1000 > 1000
April average(Rounds 2-6)
May average(Rounds 7-9)
June average(Rounds 10-11)
Week of 18 August(Round 12)
Week of 22 September(Round 13)
Week of 20 October(Round 14)
Week of November 10(Round 15)
30Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Results are not stratified by industry.
Reported impact on weekly turnover, by number of employees(in %, unweighted average¹)
Revenues deteriorate especially for the smaller firms/self-employed,which also were hit hardest in the first lockdown
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Self-employed 1 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 250 250 - 1000 > 1000
Flemish Region Walloon Region Brussels-Capital Region
31Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Results are not stratified by industry.
Reported impact on weekly turnover by number of employees (Survey 10 November)(in %, unweighted average¹)
In all three regions, small firms lose up to half of their revenue(with a bigger impact for most size classes in Brussels)
32Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.
Reasons for the current revenue loss (Survey 10 November)(in % of responding firms, multiple reasons are possible)
Worst hit industries suffer from the forced closure of their activities,while lack of demand remains a key issue for all industries …
0
20
40
60
80
100
Lack of demand Forced closure Social distancing andhygienic measures
Supply chain problems Staff shortage Liquidity problems Other Not applicable:no revenue loss
Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Retail sales (non-food) Real estate activitiesRetail sales (food) Wholesale Information and communication Support servicesAgriculture Transportation and logistics Manufacturing Financial and insurance activitiesConstruction
33Source: ERMG survey of 10 November.
… with the rising sick leave (also due to quarantines) weighing oncompanies as well
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,013
Apr
il
20 A
pril
27 A
pril
5 M
ay
12 M
ay
26 M
ay
9 Ju
ne
23 Ju
ne
18 A
ugus
t
22 S
epte
mbe
r
20 O
ctob
er
10 N
ovem
ber
Sick leave(in % of the total number of employees of the companies in the survey (excluding self-employed))
Higher sick leave in Walloniaand in industries wheretelework is less feasible
34Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.1 Weighted average based on the industry value added.
The concern indicator has gone up since August and it is now againat the level of the spring lockdown
Indicator of concern about current situation(Indicator¹ between 1 (low concern) and 10 (strong concern))
7,1 7,2 7,27,0 7,1
6,96,7
6,6
6,3
5,9
6,7
6,3
7,0 6,9
5
6
7
8
Round 2(30 Mar)
Round 3(6 Apr)
Round 4(13 Apr)
Round 5(20 Apr)
Round 6(27 Apr)
Round 7(5 May)
Round 8(12 May)
Round 9(26 May)
Round 10(9 Jun)
Round 11(23 Jun)
Round 12(18 Aug)
Round 13(22 Sep)
Round 14(20 Oct)
Round 15(11 Nov)
34
35
The average company expects its investment to be up to25 % below normal in both 2020 and 2021
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Transportationand logistics
Wholesale andretail trade
Manufacturing Information andcommunication
Supportservices
Real estateactivities
Construction Agriculture Financial andinsuranceactivities
2020 Investment 2021 Investment Belgium¹ 2020 Belgium¹ 2021
COVID-19 impact on expected investment in 2020 and 2021 (Survey 20 October)(in %, unweighted average)
35Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.1 Weighted average based on the industry value added.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
No, I do not have liquidityproblems
Yes, due to revenue loss Yes, due to late payments of ourclients
Yes, due to insufficient credit lines Yes, due to delayed governmentpayments
April average(Rounds 2-6)
May average(Rounds 7-9)
June average(Rounds 10-11)
Week of 18 August(Round 12)
Week of 22 September(Round 13)
Week of 20 October(Round 14)
Week of November 10(Round 15)
36
The number of companies with liquidity problems have increasedagain since October …
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.
Do you have liquidity problems?(in % of responding firms¹, multiple answers are possible)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Belgium¹ Accommodationand food services
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Retail sales (non-food)
Information andcommunication
Real estateactivities
Support services Construction Wholesale Retail sales (food) Transportationand logistics
Manufacturing Agriculture Financial andinsuranceactivities
< 1 month 1 - 3 months 3 - 6 months 6 - 12 months >12 months
37
… and more than 60 % of firms now need additional financing in oneyear to meet their current financial obligations
Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.
How long can you still meet your current financial obligations without having to rely on additionalcapital injections or additional loans?(in % of responding firms)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Belgium² Accommodationand food services
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Transportationand logistics
Retail sales (non-food)
Information andcommunication
Real estateactivities
Support services Retail sales (food) Construction Wholesale Manufacturing Agriculture Financial andinsuranceactivities
Week of 18 August(Round 12)
Week of 20 October(Round 14)
Week of November 10(Round 15)
38
Bankruptcy risk has increased again in November …
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ The results of the September survey were left out as the sample was not representative (small firms based in Wallonia and Brussels, which regard the risk of bankruptcy as higher, were much less
represented in that survey).² Weighted average based on the industry value added.
Firms that consider bankruptcy to be likely or highly likely¹(in % of responding firms)
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
Belgium¹ Accommodationand food services
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Transportationand logistics
Retail sales (non-food)
Wholesale Real estateactivities
Manufacturing Information andcommunication
Construction Retail sales (food) Support services Agriculture Financial andinsuranceactivities
Survey 18 August Survey 22 September Survey 20 October Survey 10 November
39
… and firms estimate that many companies in their industry arecurrently in a bankruptcy process or already went bankrupt
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.
Estimate of respondents on the proportion of companies in their sector that already are currentlyin a bankruptcy process or that already went bankrupt(in %, unweighted average)
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Belgium¹ Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Retail sales (non-food)
Retail sales(food)
Real estateactivities
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Support services Wholesale Information andcommunication
Construction Agriculture Manufacturing Transportationand logistics
2020 2021
40Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.1 Average, weighted by the number of private sector employees in the industries.
Expected change in staff size in 2020 and 2021 (Survey 10 November)(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excluding self-employed)
The number of employees in the private sector is expected to declineby almost 6 % by the end of 2021 …
41Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.1 Average, weighted by the number of private sector employees in the industries.
Expected change of staff size in 2020 and 2021 (Survey 10 November)(in number of employees, excluding self-employed)
… corresponding to an expected decline by about 140 000 employeesin the private sector
-160 000
-140 000
-120 000
-100 000
-80 000
-60 000
-40 000
-20 000
0
Belgium¹-45 000
-40 000
-35 000
-30 000
-25 000
-20 000
-15 000
-10 000
-5 000
0
5 000
Wholesale andretail trade
Support services Accommodationand foodservices
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Information andcommunication
Construction Real estateactivities
Manufacturing Agriculture Transportationand logistics
2020 2021
42Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Average, weighted by the number of the private sector employees of the industries in the Belgian economy.
Workforce organisation over time, Belgium¹(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excl. self-employed)
One in three employees is now in full-time telework, while temporaryunemployment will further increase in the coming weeks
0
20
40
60
80
10020
Apr
il
27 A
pril
5 M
ay
12 M
ay
26 M
ay
9 Ju
ne
23 Ju
ne
18 A
ugus
t
22 S
epte
mbe
r
20 O
ctob
er
10 N
ovem
ber
temporarily unemployed telework mix telework/workplace at workplace sick leave on leave
0
20
40
60
80
100
Acco
mm
odat
ion
and
food
serv
ices
Arts,
ent
erta
inm
ent a
ndre
crea
tion
Reta
il sale
s (no
n-fo
od)
Who
lesa
le
Real
esta
te a
ctivi
ties
Reta
il sale
s (fo
od)
Man
ufac
turin
g
Cons
truct
ion
Supp
ort s
ervic
es
Info
rmat
ion
and
com
mun
icatio
n
Agric
ultu
re
Tran
spor
tatio
n an
d lo
gisti
cs
Finan
cial a
nd in
sura
nce
activ
ities
Workforce organisation by industry (10 November)(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excl. self-employed)
50 % of firms say they willincrease their use of temporary
unemployment in thecoming weeks
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
Belgium¹ Support services Information andcommunication
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Real estateactivities
Manufacturing Transportationand logistics
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Wholesale andretail trade
Construction Agriculture Accommodationand foodservices
Before COVID-19 Week of 20 October² After COVID-19
43Source: Round 14 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 20 October 2020.¹ Average, weighted by the number of private sector employees in the industries.² The average days of telework for the week of 20 October is computed based on the survey question on the workforce organisation. It pertains to the staff that is currently working (thus excluding
temporarily unemployed and absent staff) and it assumes that partial telework corresponds to 2 days a week.
Use of telework in October and before and after the COVID-19 crisis (Survey 20 October)(average number of days per week, weighted averages based on staff size, excluding self-employed)
The use of telework is expected to remain almost twice as large afterthe COVID-19 crisis …
44Source: Round 13 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 22 September 2020.
Do you expect that the way of working in your company will be permanently different fromthe situation before the crisis? (Survey 22 September)(in % of responding firms, multiple answers are possible)
… as the crisis will have a lasting impact on the way of working withincreased use of telework, more flexible working hours and less travel
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Yes, increased use oftelework
Yes, more flexibleworking hours
Yes, less business travel Yes, reorganisation ofteams
Yes, other No
Information and communication Support services Financial and insurance activitiesTransportation and logistics Manufacturing Real estate activitiesConstruction Arts, entertainment and recreation Wholesale and retail tradeAgriculture Accommodation and food services
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Belgium¹ Retail sales(non-food)
Retail sales(food)
Accommodationand food services
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Support services Information andcommunication
Real estateactivities
Manufacturing Agriculture Construction Wholesale Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Transportationand logistics
Before the COVID-19 crisis Week of 10 November After the COVID-19 crisis
45Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added
Share of companies that generate sales through distance orders or online sales (Survey 10 November)(in % of responding firms, sectors are ranked by increase from the pre-COVID-19 situation)
The COVID-19 crisis has led to a structural increase in E-sales/distanceorders, especially in retail, accommodation and financial services
46Source: Round 12 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 18 August 2020.
Do you expect that, as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, the production of your company that iscurrently produced outside the EU will be moved to a country within the EU? (Round 12)(In % of responding firms)
Only few firms have non-EU production and the vast majority ofthese firms will not reshore this production
0
20
40
60
80
100
Yes, 100% of ournon-EU production
Yes, 20-50% of ournon-EU production
Yes, 0-50% of ournon-EU production
No, we keep ournon-EU production
Not applicable:I do not have
non-EU productionAgriculture Manufacturing Financial and insurance activitiesTransportation and logistics Information and communication Wholesale and retail tradeSupport services Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food servicesConstruction Real estate activities
47
Credit indicatorshouseholds
48Bron: NBB, laatste beschikbare gegevens: september 2020 (laatste bijwerking: 12 november 2020).1 Andere activa bevatten voornamelijk verzekeringsproducten en niet-genoteerde aandelen.
Minwaarden op bestaande beleggingen maar meer deposito’s enaankoop aandelen en beleggingsfondsen door gezinnen in 2020
Netto financiële investeringen(in € miljard)
Min- en meerwaarden op financiële activa vanhuishoudens(in € miljard)
◆ In 2020Q1 veroorzaakten de sterke daling in de beurskoersen waardedalingen in definanciële activa van de particulieren voor 63,1 miljard euro.Door het herstel van de beurzen vertoont 2020Q2 positieve herwaarderingen van37,1 miljard. Negatieve prijseffecten waren beduidend hoger tijdens de financiëlecrisis van 2008.
◆ p.m. de totale financiële activa van de particulieren bedroegen 1 406 miljard eind juni2020.
-80-60-40-20
020406080
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
Financiële rekeningen Schatting
Andere activa¹ Deposito's Beleggingsfondsen Schuldbewijzen Genoteerde aandelen Totaal
-10-505
10152025
2019
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
Financiële kwartaalrekeningen Schatting
◆ De transacties in financiële activa van de particulieren in het tweedekwartaal tonen forse investeringen voor totaal 19,1 miljard euro,voornamelijk door de stijging van de deposito’s, en in minderemate van de beleggingsfondsen en genoteerde aandelen,illustratief voor het “geforceerd sparen” van de gezinnen.In de maanden juli tot september zijn de evolutiesminder uitgesproken.
49Bron: Schema A, laatste beschikbare gegevens: september 2020.
Alle deposito’s(Maandelijkse nettogroei, € miljoen)
Deposito’s Belgische huishoudens(€ miljard, sector, maandelijkse gegevens)
Deposito’s van Belgische huishoudens
150
200
250
300
350
400
450jan
-15
mei
-15
sep-
15jan
-16
mei
-16
sep-
16jan
-17
mei
-17
sep-
17jan
-18
mei
-18
sep-
18jan
-19
mei
-19
sep-
19jan
-20
mei
-20
sep-
20
Alle deposito's Spaarboekje
-2 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
jan-1
9fe
b-19
mrt-
19ap
r-19
mei
-19
jun-
19ju
l-19
aug-
19se
p-19
okt-
19no
v-19
dec-
19jan
-20
feb-
20m
rt-20
apr-
20m
ei-2
0ju
n-20
jul-2
0au
g-20
sep-
20
Negatieve saldi op rekeningen / kredietkaarten
50
Negatieve saldi op rekeningen(stock, in € miljoen, maandelijkse gegevens)
Bron: Ad hoc rapportering, Febelfin, op basis van 7 banken, laatst beschikbaregegevens: 2 november 2020.Bron: Schema A, voorschotten rekening courant, laatste beschikbare gegevens: september 2020.
Aantal rekeningen “teveel in het rood”(aantal, in duizend, wekelijkse gegevens)
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 50012
/201
403
/201
506
/201
509
/201
512
/201
503
/201
606
/201
609
/201
612
/201
603
/201
706
/201
709
/201
712
/201
703
/201
806
/201
809
/201
812
/201
803
/201
906
/201
909
/201
912
/201
903
/202
006
/202
009
/202
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
W 13
/4W
20/
4W
27/
4W
4/5
W 11
/5W
18/5
W 2
5/5
W 1/
6W
8/6
W 15
/6W
22/
6W
29/
6W
6/7
W 13
/7W
20/
7W
27/
7W
3/8
W 10
/8W
17/8
W 2
4/8
W 3
1/8
W 7
/9W
14/9
W 2
1/9
W 5
/10
W 19
/10
W 2
/11
Bankkredieten van Belgische huishoudens
51Bron: Schema A, laatste beschikbare gegevens:september 2020.
Hypothecaire leningen(maandelijkse nettogroei , € miljoen)
Stock(€ miljard)
Consumentenleningen(maandelijkse nettogroei , € miljoen)
Groeivoet(op jaarbasis, %)
150170190210230250270
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4 000-2 000
02 0004 0006 0008 000
jan-1
9fe
b-19
mrt-
19ap
r-19
mei
-19
jun-
19ju
l-19
aug-
19se
p-19
okt-
19no
v-19
dec-
19jan
-20
feb-
20m
rt-20
apr-
20m
ei-2
0ju
n-20
jul-2
0au
g-20
sep-
20
- 200- 150- 100- 50
0 50
100 150
jan-1
9fe
b-19
mrt-
19ap
r-19
mei
-19
jun-
19ju
l-19
aug-
19se
p-19
okt-
19no
v-19
dec-
19jan
-20
feb-
20m
rt-20
apr-
20m
ei-2
0ju
n-20
jul-2
0au
g-20
sep-
20
-10-505
101520
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Belgium Euro area
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
35020
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
20
52Bron: Centrale voor Kredieten aan Particulieren (CKP), laatste beschikbare gegevens: 23 november 2020
Wanbetalingsgraad(Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten, % van alle uitstaandecontracten in CKP/ENR)
Nieuwe leningen(geregistreerd bedrag per werkdag in CKP, in € miljoenen)
Hypotheekleningen: nieuwe leningen en wanbetalingsgraad
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 12 maandenGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste maandGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 5 werkdagen
07/0
302
/04
28/0
424
/05
19/0
615
/07
10/0
805
/09
01/1
027
/10
22/1
1
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
05101520253035404550
24/0
320
/04
17/0
513
/06
10/0
706
/08
02/0
929
/09
26/1
022
/11
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(dagelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(maandelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Wanbetalingsgraad(dagelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
Wanbetalingsgraad(maandelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
07/0
302
/04
28/0
424
/05
19/0
615
/07
10/0
805
/09
01/1
027
/10
22/1
1
53Bron: CKP, laatste beschikbare gegevens: 23 november 2020.1 Leningen en verkopen op afbetaling (uitgezonderd kredietopeningen).
Wanbetalingsgraad(Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten, % van alle uitstaandecontracten in CKP/ENR)
Nieuwe leningen(geregistreerd bedrag per werkdag in CKP, in € miljoenen)
Consumentenkredieten1: nieuwe leningen en wanbetalingsgraad
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 12 maandenGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste maandGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 5 werkdagen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7020
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
200
50.00 0
10 0.000
15 0.000
200.0 00
250.0 00
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
24/0
320
/04
17/0
513
/06
10/0
706
/08
02/0
929
/09
26/1
022
/11
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(dagelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(maandelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Wanbetalingsgraad(dagelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
Wanbetalingsgraad(maandelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
10/0
517
/05
24/0
531
/05
07/0
614
/06
21/0
628
/06
05/0
712
/07
19/0
726
/07
02/0
809
/08
16/0
823
/08
30/0
806
/09
13/0
920
/09
27/0
911
/10
25/1
008
/11
◆ Aantal consumentenleningen die genieten ofgenoten hebben van een moratorium zoalsgeregistreerd in de Centrale voor Kredieten aanParticulieren (op 8 november)
◇ 8 353 leningen
◇ waarvan 8 100 leningen op afbetaling(0,4 % van alle leningen op afbetaling)
54Bronnen: CKP, Febelfin.
Aantal hypotheekleningen onder moratorium
Moratoria voor leningen aan gezinnen
4,4 %
1,4 %
Aantal hypotheekleningen met een lopend moratoriumwaarvan: verlenging van eerder verleende moratoria
Aantal hypotheekleningen die genieten of genoten hebben van een moratoriumzoals geregistreerd in de Centrale voor Kredieten aan Particulieren
Febelfincijfers voor de 7 grootste banken
55Bron: Febelfin, laatste beschikbare gegevens: 2 november 2020.
Achterstanden bij leningen aan huishoudens stabiel sinds juni
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,513
/4
20/4
27/4 4/5
11/5
18/5
25/5 1/6
8/6
15/6
22/6
29/6 6/7
13/7
20/7
27/7 3/8
10/8
17/8
24/8
31/8 7/9
14/9
21/9
5/10
19/1
0
2/11
Hypothecaire leningen Consumentenkredieten
Betalingsachterstand (1-30 dagen) op hypothecaire leningen en consumentenleningen(wekelijkse gegevens, aantal leningen met een betalingsachterstand van 1-30 dagen als % van het totaal aantal leningen)
56
Credit indicatorscorporates
57Sources: ECB, NBB.
Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on lending to non-financialcorporations (NFCs)◆ Credit developments: (see next slides)
◇ While annual NFC growth of utilised loans had accelerated in March and April (in large part due todrawdowns of credit lines by multinationals), it has slowed since May.
◇ The annual growth rate of authorised (granted) credit is comparable to that observed before the pandemic◇ Monthly growth rates of utilised and authorised loans have been low since June, with some monthly
growth rates being negative◇ Loan arrears have been stable since May◇ Small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have larger proportions of loans in moratorium than larger firms
◆ According to the October 2020 Bank lending survey:◇ Demand for loans from Belgian enterprises in 2020Q3 was driven by liquidity needs, but also curbed by a
decline in fixed investment◇ Slight tightening in credit standards prompted by higher risk perception and lower risk tolerance
58Sources: ECB, NBB.
Firms perceived less favorable credit conditions◆ Belgian firms reported a slight improvement of their credit conditions compared to 2020Q2
◇ Slight improvement in the assessment of the general credit conditions by firms- Mainly due to the industry sector and large firms- From 2020, the balance of the opinions (favorable vs unfavorable) is below the historical average
◇ Small deterioration with respect to 2020Q2 regarding requirements for collateral(source: NBB survey on credit conditions)
◆ SMEs feared a significant impact on bank loan availability in 2020Q2◇ No significant changes regarding obstacles impeding access to bank financing between October 2019
and March 2020- Proportion of SMEs not applying for bank credit because of possible rejection, or applying for a loan but only
receiving a limited part of the amount requested, refusing credit because the cost was too high, or having theirapplication rejected = 5,2 % (against 5,9 % on average in 2017-2019)
◇ But SMEs expected a sharp deterioration in availability of bank loans over the next six months(April-September 2020)- Widespread across sectors
(source: SAFE survey, conducted between 2 March and 8 April 2020.)
59
Non-financial corporations
NFC credit growth in Belgium: slowdown after the peak in March andApril(year-on-year % changes1, up to September 2020)
Sources: European Central Bank (ECB), NBB (Balance Sheet Items), latest available data: 30 September 2020.1 Loans granted by resident MFIs to residents, including securitised loans and loans otherwise transferred.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Belgium Euro area
Reduced contribution of multinational corporations to total creditgrowth, after massive drawdowns of credit lines in March and April …
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
Local corporations Multinational corporations¹ Total
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
60Sources: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: 30 September 2020.1 Firms with direct investment abroad or at least partially owned by foreign investors (10 % threshold), identified by SX.
Year-on-year growth rates for utilised credit(%)
Year-on-year growth rates for authorised credit(%)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
Up to one year (or undefined) One to two years Two to five years Over five years Total
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
61Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: 30 September 2020.
Decomposition of YoY used corporate creditgrowth by maturity(%)
… which also translates into a lower contribution of short-term loans
Decomposition of YoY authorized corporatecredit growth by maturity(%)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2020m3 2020m4 2020m5 2020m6 2020m7 2020m8 2020m9
utilised authorised
Negative growth of utilised loans in September, but also true forprevious yearsPositive growth in September for authorised loans
62Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: September 2020.
Monthly growth rates of loans for Septemberof previous years(in %)
Monthly growth rates of authorised andutilised loans(in %)
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
2017m9 2018m9 2019m9 2020m9
- 4- 2 0 2 4 6 8
10 12
Arts,
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Cons
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Man
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Info
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and
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Supp
ort s
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Agric
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re, f
ores
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and
fishi
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ancia
l and
insu
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Oth
erMar-Sep 2020 4-y avg Mar-Sep
-4-202468
1012
Arts,
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Cons
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Man
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Info
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and
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Supp
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63Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: September 2020.Note: Sectors are ordered based on the initial fall in sales due to the crisis (greater declines from right to left). “Other” contains all other sectors in the economy.
March-September growth rates of utilisedloans(in %)
March-September growth rates of authorisedloans(in %)
Growth in authorised and utilised loans since start of crisis is belowhistorical averages for many vulnerable sectors
58
98
56
91
45
82
19
91
47
88
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
Self-employed(1)
SMEs(2)
Corporates(3)
Public(4)
Sum of(1) to (4)= total
64
Loan developments - weeklyNFCs in weekly reporting = Self-employed + SMEs + Corporates + Public Sector Entities
Utilisation rate (=utilised/authorized)(last weekly observation, in %)
Evolution of total loans to NFCs(in %)
99,5
97,4
80
85
90
95
100
10531
/05
14/0
6
28/0
6
12/0
7
26/0
7
09/0
8
23/0
8
06/0
9
20/0
9
11/1
0
08/1
1
Authorised Utilised
Total loans to NFCs represented as an indexnormalized to 100 % by end May stock of loans
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 8 November 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
103,2
101,1
90
95
100
105
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
11/1
025
/10
08/1
1
96,8
93,19092949698
100102
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
11/1
025
/10
08/1
1Authorised Utilised
99,7
99,8
9092949698
100102
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
11/1
025
/10
08/1
1
Total loans to NFCs represented as an index normalized to 100 % by end May stock of loans65
Stable loans for firms except for a slight decline for corporatesNFCs in weekly reporting = Self-employed + SMEs + Corporates + Public Sector Entities
Evolution of total loans to SMEsLatest observation (authorized) 83 billion EUR
Evolution of total loans to self-employedLatest observation (authorized) 23 billion EUR
103
101,9
90
95
100
10531
/05
07/0
614
/06
21/0
628
/06
05/0
712
/07
19/0
726
/07
02/0
809
/08
16/0
823
/08
30/0
806
/09
13/0
920
/09
27/0
911
/10
25/1
008
/11
Total loans to public sector entitiesLatest observation (authorized) 37 billion EUR
Evolution of total loans to corporatesLatest observation (authorized) 139 billion EUR
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 8 November 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
3/05
10/0
517
/05
24/0
531
/05
7/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
65/
0712
/07
19/0
726
/07
2/08
9/08
16/0
823
/08
30/0
86/
0913
/09
20/0
927
/09
4/10
11/1
018
/10
25/1
01/
118/
11
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
66
Number of loans in arrears or in default are not increasing (yet?)(arrears – weekly)
Number of loans in arrears or in default(in thousands of people)
Amounts in arrears or in default(in € millions)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
3/05
10/0
517
/05
24/0
531
/05
7/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
65/
0712
/07
19/0
726
/07
2/08
9/08
16/0
823
/08
30/0
86/
0913
/09
20/0
927
/09
4/10
11/1
018
/10
25/1
01/
118/
11
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 8 November 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
4%
56%
36%
4%
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
8%
30%
49%
13%
67
Total loan amounts by type of counterpartyLoan amounts in moratorium by type of counterparty
SMEs are the main beneficiaries of moratorium relative to their shareof total loans(moratorium – weekly)
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 8 November 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
68
0,2
2,8
0,3
8,5
1,7
9,1
0,3 0,7 0,4
6,2
02468
101214161820
Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term
Self-employed(1)
SMEs(2)
Corporates(3)
Public(4)
Sum of(1) to (4) = total
Long term loans are the main type of loans in moratorium(moratorium – weekly)
% of exposures in moratorium(last weekly observation)
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 27 September 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
69
Total loan amounts by type of counterpartyLoan amounts under state guarantee by type ofcounterparty
Take-up of the state guarantee - by type of counterpartyResults, taking into account only state guarantee I(weekly data)
3,4%
45,9%50,5%
0,2%
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 8 November 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
8%
30%
49%
13%
70
Bankruptcies andnew business registrations
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Mid-Nov 2020(current month)
71
Source: Statbel, latest available data: 15 November 2020.1 Declaration of bankruptcy by the company court.2 Although the moratorium on filings for bankruptcies came to an end on 17 June 2020, the tax administration and the ONSS applied a de facto moratorium on tax and social security debts.
Other measures taken are the deferment of payment of the annual company contribution (until 31 October 2020) and the social security contributions (until 15 December 2020), as well as the reintroductionof a temporary suspension of seizures. On Friday 6 November 2020, a new moratorium on bankruptcies until 31 January 2021 was approved towards businesses forced to close temporarily following theemergency measures taken to limit COVID-19 and a further extension to 31 December for the payment of the annual company contribution. A new draft judicial reorganisation procedure is expected by31 January 2021.
(# by activity)Bankruptcies(# by region)
The number of bankruptcies1 declines in October and remains wellbelow the 2019 level …... since several provisions adopted to support businesses are still in place2
◆ About 96 % of bankruptcies are within the ‘0 to 9 workers’company size class
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 VLA 2020 BRU 2020 WAL 2019 Belgium Transport & other servicesTradeIndustries & energy
Hotel & restaurantBuildingAgriculture & fisheries
72Source: Statbel, latest available data: 15 November 2020.1 Declaration of bankruptcy by the company court.
(# by activity)Bankruptcies1
(# by region)
Weekly bankruptcies figures decline to almost the end of Octoberand then increase again… temporarily 20 % below the 2015-19 average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Aug3-9
Aug10-16
Aug17-23
Aug24-30
Aug 31Sep 6
Sep7-13
Sep14-20
Sep21-27
Sep 28Oct 4
Oct5-11
Oct12-18
Oct19-25
Oct 26Nov 1
Nov2-8
Nov9-15 (p)
VLA BRU WAL Avg 2015-19 Belgium
◆ Since August 31, the number of bankruptcies remains 31 % below the2015-19 average while in August, declared bankruptcies were close to it
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Aug3-9
Aug10-16
Aug17-23
Aug24-30
Aug 31Sep 6
Sep7-13
Sep14-20
Sep21-27
Sep 28Oct 4
Oct5-11
Oct12-18
Oct19-25
Oct 26Nov 1
Nov2-8
Nov9-15 (p)
Transport & other servicesTradeIndustries & energy
Hotel & restaurantBuildingAgriculture & fisheries
73Source: Statbel, latest available data: August 2020.1 Business creation as measured by entities registering (first registrations & re-registrations) as a VAT unit in the Crossroads Bank for Enterprises.
New businesses1
Business startups recede in August according to seasonal patterns… and, as in July, remain stronger than in 2019
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
VLA BRU WAL 2019 Belgium
74
Financial markets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
VIX VSTOXX
Financial markets respond to positive vaccine trial results
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
04/2
018
06/2
018
08/2
018
10/2
018
12/2
018
02/2
019
04/2
019
06/2
019
08/2
019
10/2
019
12/2
019
02/2
020
04/2
020
06/2
020
08/2
020
10/2
020
BEL 20 Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 S&P 500
◆ Stock prices declined late October, as the second pandemic wave struck countries worldwide and new mobility restrictions were imposed in Europe.◆ Early November, stock prices recovered as uncertainty tied to the US elections unraveled. In addition, the publication of favorable vaccine trial results
led to a stock market rally.◆ Volatility followed a similar pattern: increasing in late-October with COVID-19 cases and the build-up to US elections. Despite easing in November,
volatility currently continues to remain above its historical average.
75Source: Refinitiv, latest available data: 20 November 2020.
Major stock market indices(01/2018=100)
Implied stock market volatility(in %)
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100120140160
07/2
019
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
04/2
020
05/2
020
06/2
020
07/2
020
08/2
020
09/2
020
10/2
020
11/2
020
Crude Oil WTI Metals index
Copper Gold
◆ Oil prices fell by late October due to a resurgence inCOVID-19 cases worldwide, which hindered demand.Later in November, the announcement of positivevaccine clinical trial results raised the prospects offuture demand, which sustained oil prices.
◆ Despite declining 8 % from its August peak, gold priceremains high in an uncertain environment
◆ Prices of other metals tied to industrial demand arebenefitting from the prospect of a post-pandemicrecovery and investments in green technologies.
76Source: Datastream, latest available data: 20 November 2020.Note: the metals index includes aluminium, copper, lead, iron ore, tin, nickel and zinc.
Commodity price indices(01/07/2019 = 100)
Ups and downs in oil prices following the evolution of the pandemicand the publication of positive vaccine trial results
Corporate spreads still above their pre-crisis level for the mostvulnerable companies
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90007
/201
9
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
04/2
020
05/2
020
06/2
020
07/2
020
08/2
020
09/2
020
10/2
020
11/2
020
US BBB Euro BBB US BB Euro BB
◆ Despite episodes of renewed uncertainty related tothe sanitary and economic prospects, spreads easedgradually since late March, helped by supportivemonetary and fiscal policies
◆ After a temporary surge related to the increase inCOVID-19 cases and the uncertainty around the USfiscal stimulus and elections, corporate spreadsrecently eased following US elections results and thefavorable vaccine trial results
77Source: BofA Merrill Lynch from Datastream, latest available data: 20 November 2020.
Corporate bond spreads (€ or $ denominated)(Difference vis-à-vis sovereign, basis points)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,501
/201
8
03/2
018
05/2
018
07/2
018
09/2
018
11/2
018
01/2
019
03/2
019
05/2
019
07/2
019
09/2
019
11/2
019
01/2
020
03/2
020
05/2
020
07/2
020
09/2
020
11/2
020
Belgium Spain France Italy Netherlands
Sovereign bond spreads trending downwards
◆ Sovereign spreads now closer to their pre-crisis levelswith IT spread reaching a two-year low.
◆ Despite the increase in new COVID-19 cases in Europe(until early November) and the following mobilityrestrictions, sovereign spreads still follow a downwardtrend, also helped by the publication of favorablevaccine trial results and expectations of further ECBsupport.
78Source: Refinitiv, latest available data: 20 November 2020.
10-year spreads vis-à-vis Germany (EA)(%)
79
International outlook
BE
DEEE
IE
EL
ES
FRIT
CYLV
LT
LUNL
AT
PT
SI
SK
FI
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Grow
th p
roje
ctio
ns fo
r 202
0 in
%
Oxford stringency index, average (1 January - 3 November)
80Source(s EC, OxCGRT, Eurostat1 These sectors are accommodation and food services (NACE code I), arts, entertainment and recreation (NACE code R), air transport (NACE code H51) and travel agencies, tour operators and booking
agencies (NACE code N79).
… and partly by differences in economicstructure
Growth disparities partly explained byintensity of confinement measures …(index between 0 (no measures) and 100 (complete national lockdown)
Growth disparities in euro area: complex story that goes beyondlockdown stringency and economic structure
BE
DEEE
IE
EL
ES
FRIT
CYLV
LT
LU
MT
NL
AT
PT
SISK
FI
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Grow
th p
roje
ctio
ns fo
r 202
0 in
%
Share of sectors1 hit hardest by COVID-19 in gross value added
81
Composite mobility indicator1
(% change from pre-COVID-19 baseline; 7-day moving average)
New COVID infections and lockdowns weigh on mobility, but less sothan during first wave
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
4022
/02/
2020
01/0
3/20
20
09/0
3/20
20
17/0
3/20
20
25/0
3/20
20
02/0
4/20
20
10/0
4/20
20
18/0
4/20
20
26/0
4/20
20
04/0
5/20
20
12/0
5/20
20
20/0
5/20
20
28/0
5/20
20
05/0
6/20
20
13/0
6/20
20
21/0
6/20
20
29/0
6/20
20
07/0
7/20
20
15/0
7/20
20
23/0
7/20
20
31/0
7/20
20
08/0
8/20
20
16/0
8/20
20
24/0
8/20
20
01/0
9/20
20
09/0
9/20
20
17/0
9/20
20
25/0
9/20
20
03/1
0/20
20
11/1
0/20
20
19/1
0/20
20
27/1
0/20
20
04/1
1/20
20
12/1
1/20
20
20/1
1/20
20
Belgium Netherlands France Germany Spain UK Sweden US Japan
Sources: Google, Apple, IHS Markit, Refinitiv. Construction of mobility composite inspired by Capital Economics.1 Composite indicator is a simple average of changes in Google mobility report scores for categories “retail and recreation”, “workplaces”, and “transit stations”, and changes in Apple routing requests for
driving. Pre-COVID-19 baseline is the median value (for the corresponding day of the week) of each sub-indicator over the period January – 6 February. Latest values are for 17 November.
82Source: Refinitiv.
Service sector PMIs(diffusion index; 50+ signals expected expansion)
Manufacturing PMIs(diffusion index; 50+ signals expected expansion)
Second wave of COVID infections and lockdowns weighs on euroarea sentiment, especially in services sector
30
35
40
45
50
55
6012
/201
9
1/20
20
2/20
20
3/20
20
4/20
20
5/20
20
6/20
20
7/20
20
8/20
20
9/20
20
10/2
020
11/2
020
Euro area US Japan China(Caixin) UK
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
04/2
020
05/2
020
06/2
020
07/2
020
08/2
020
09/2
020
10/2
020
11/2
020
83
Euro area: extra-EA-19 goods export volumes2
(% change yoy)World goods trade volumes1
(average of exports and imports, % change yoy)
World tradeTowards a protracted repair of global value chains?
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1/20
18
4/20
18
7/20
18
10/2
018
1/20
19
4/20
19
7/20
19
10/2
019
1/20
20
4/20
20
7/20
20World Advanced economiesEmerging economies Euro areaChina
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
101520
1/20
18
3/20
18
5/20
18
7/20
18
9/20
18
11/2
018
1/20
19
3/20
19
5/20
19
7/20
19
9/20
19
11/2
019
1/20
20
3/20
20
5/20
20
7/20
20
9/20
20
Consumer goods (excl. transport eqp.)
Intermediate goods
Capital goodsSources: Central Planning Bureau (CPB), Eurostat, Refinitiv.1 Latest available data: August 2020.2 Latest available data: August 2020.
Chinese exportsboosted by demandfor COVID-19-relatedproducts, incl. PPE,medical equipment,work-from-homeelectronics.
84
Real GDP forecasts(%)
Forecasts for 2020/2021Is the bottom shallower than expected in June?
-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468
1020
20
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
2020
2021
World Euroarea
DE FR IT ES NL BE UK US JP CN
IMF WEO Oct 2020 IMF WEO Jun 2020Consensus Oct 2020 (mean) Consensus Jun 2020 (mean)
Upward revisions for 2020 since Junereflect:
◆ Massive deployment of emergencymeasures
◆ Faster than expected recovery insome sectors, incl. consumption ofdurable goods (pent-up demand),and in China
New lockdowns are expected to delaybut not derail the recovery
Sources: European Commission (European Economic Forecast), Consensus Economics.
85
Selected European countries: Real GDP1
(index, 2019Q4 = 100)Major blocs: Real GDP1
(index, 2019Q4 = 100)
Expected recoveryVariations across countries
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
11020
19Q
4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
Euro areaUSChinaJapanConsensus forecast (23/11, average of last 8+ revisions)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
GermanyFranceSpainUKConsensus forecast (23/11, average of last 8+ revisions)
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Consensus Economics, Destatis, Eurostat, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE),Japanese Cabinet Office (JP CAO), National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), Office for National Statistics (ONS), Refinitiv.
1 Consensus levels implied from forecasted yoy changes.
86
Investment-driven growth, while private consumption improves(contribution to growth in percentage points)
China seems to engineer a V-shaped recovery
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
03/2019 06/2019 09/2019 12/2019 03/2020 06/2020 09/2020
Consumption Investment Net exports GDP growth (in %, yoy)
Source: CEIC.
87Sources: CEIC, Refinitiv. Latest available data: October 2020.
Retail sales(% change, yoy)
Industrial production(% change, yoy)
China vs the rest: more resilient supply, more hesitant demand?
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
151/
2019
4/20
19
7/20
19
10/2
019
1/20
20
4/20
20
7/20
20
10/2
020
Euro area China Korea US
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/2
019
04/2
019
07/2
019
10/2
019
01/2
020
04/2
020
07/2
020
10/2
020
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
12/2
019
1/20
20
2/20
20
3/20
20
4/20
20
5/20
20
6/20
20
7/20
20
8/20
20
9/20
20
10/2
020
Industry Retail Accommodation Food & drink services Finance Travel services
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
12/2
019
1/20
20
2/20
20
3/20
20
4/20
20
5/20
20
6/20
20
7/20
20
8/20
20
9/20
20
10/2
020
88
Euro Area: Employment expectations(balance of firms; expectations over next 3 months)
Euro Area: Demand expectations(balance of firms; expectations over next 3 months)
Euro-Area: K-recovery in the making?Heterogeneity across sectors: V for some, long-lasting scars for others
Sources: OECD, European Commission (EC), Refinitiv. Latest available data: October 2020.
89
France:Share of employees intemporary unemployment(% of total FTE employees)
Germany:Average weekly paidworking hours
Euro Area: K-recovery in the making?Labour market view … paving the way for sectoral reallocations?
20 25 30 35 40
Air transport
Accommodation
Food and beverage services
Manufacturing of motor vehicles/trailers
Retail trade
Industry and services
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Construction
Information and communication services
Public administration, education, health
Manufacturing of transport equipment
Trade
Transport and storage
Accomodation and restaurants
April June August September
Sources: Destatis, Dares. Latest available data: September 2020.
90
France: Company failures(number of legal entities, seasonally and working day-adjusted)
Germany: Company insolvencyproceedings(number of insolvencies filed)
Euro Area: Zombification or creative destruction?Too early to tell as temporary measures protect against destruction
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
0
50
100
150
200
250
1/20
19
3/20
19
5/20
19
7/20
19
9/20
19
11/2
019
1/20
20
3/20
20
5/20
20
7/20
20
9/20
20
ManufacturingConstructionWholesale, retail trade, repair of motor vehiclesTransport and storageAccommodation and restaurantsInformation and communication servicesBusiness support servicesAll sectors (right-hand scale)
Obligation to file forinsolvency suspendeduntil end December 2020
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1/20
19
3/20
19
5/20
19
7/20
19
9/20
19
11/2
019
1/20
20
3/20
20
5/20
20
7/20
20
9/20
20
IndustryConstructionSale, maintenance and repair of motor vehiclesTransport and storageAccommodation and restaurantsInformation and communication servicesBusiness support servicesAll sectors (right-hand scale)
Sources: Destatis, Banque de France (BdF). Latest available data: August (Germany) - September 2020 (France).
Obligation to file forinsolvency suspendeduntil end August 2020
91
NBB online surveysin cooperation with the
Microsoft Innovation Center
92
NBB Survey on impact on households’ income
7-24 May
Press release
Average levels based on midpoints of income intervals in replies p.m. Margins of uncertainty due to replies in terms of ranges
93Source: NBB online survey.
Average loss of income by job categories(households losses)
Large average income losses for specific groups
38% 38% 36%
25% 25% 24%
51% 51%48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Self-employed Student workers Employees intemporary unemployment
Survey7-24 May
94Source: NBB online survey.
Average loss of income by (monthly) net income ranges and job categories(household losses)
Low-income households suffer higher relative income losses
62%
48%
36%
27%
47%
39%34%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Less than 1 000€ Between 1 000€ and 2 500€ Between 2 500€ and 4 000€ More than 4 000€
Self-employed Employees in temporary unemploymentSurvey7-24 May
95
NBB Survey on changes in consumer patterns
14 – 21 July
Perscommuniqué
96Source: NBB.
How has your consumer spending evolved?(in %, compared to the period before the containment)
Did you go back to the shops?(in %, since the stores have reopened)
Most people go to the shops less often and 50 % spend less
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total 18-25years old
26-64years old
> 65years old
No Less often As often More often
90%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total 18-25years old
26-64years old
> 65years old
Much more A bit more As muchSomewhat less Much less
50%
Survey14-21 July
Lower spending mostly reflects remaining measures and healthconcerns (much lower impact of purchasing power issues)
97Source: NBB.
Why is your spendingdecreasing?(in %)
Which of your spendingcategories are currentlydecreasing ?(in %)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
p.m. No decreasing expenditures
Food
Other
Health
Service vouchers
Int. & ext. decoration
Sport
Personal services (e.g. hairdresser)
Clothing
Hospitality
Recreational activities
0 10 20 30 40 50
Fear of using public transport
Other
Loss of income
No more commuting to theworkplace
Price increase
Stringent containment measures
Health concerns
Impossibility to spend on certaincategories
Higher fear of using publictransport in Brussels: 23 %
Survey14-21 July
98Source: NBB.
Which of your spending categories are currently increasing?(in %)
Significant increase in food spending: related to homeworking oralso price increases?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
p.m. No increasing expenditures
Recreational activities
Service vouchers
Sport
Other
Clothing
Personal services (e.g. hairdresser)
Hospitality
Int. & ext. decoration
Health
Food
Survey14-21 July
Did you change your consumption pattern?(in %, during the containment period)
Consumption patterns have changed during the crisis and more than75 % of them intend to maintain them in the future
99Source: NBB.
By age
0
20
40
60
80
100
No Yes More onlinepurchases
More localpurchases
Reduceunnecessarypurchases
Others
Total 18-25 years old 26-64 years old > 65 years old
0
20
40
60
80
100
No Yes More onlinepurchases
More localpurchases
Reduceunnecessarypurchases
Others
Belgium Flanders Wallonia Brussels
By region
Online and local purchases have increased while ‘unnecessary’ expenditures havedecreased: no strong differences between ages and regions
Survey14-21 July
Only 40 % of respondents expect to spend more in the comingweeks, particularly in the hospitality industry
100Source: NBB.
What activities are you planning in thecoming weeks?(in %, by age)
How your household's consumer spendingwill evolve?(in %, by age, compared to the period before the containment)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total 18-25 years old 26-64 years old > 65 years old
Strongly increase Increase slightly Remain similarDecrease slightly Strongly decrease
40%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Go to
the
resta
uran
t
Go to
the
cinem
a/th
eatre
Go to
bars
/disc
os
Do sp
orts
Take
the
plan
e
Non
e of
thes
e po
ssib
ilitie
s
Total 18-25 years old 26-64 years old > 65 years old
Younger respondents plan to do more activities in the coming weeksp.m. these results do not yet reflect the current deterioration in the health situation
Survey14-21 July
