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Liquidität in der Krise aktiv steuern
27.03.2020, 14:30 – 15:30 Uhr
COVID 19 –
Short Term Cash
Management
Ihre Gastgeber
EY
Co
vid
-19
Short
Term
Ca
sh
Ma
na
ge
me
nt
Carsten Jäkel
EY Partner
Global Treasury Services
+49 160 939 29356
Johannes Steinel
EY Partner
Corporate Restructuring
+49 160 939 12536
Tax & Law Covid-19 Update | Webcast | 20. März 2020 | Seite 3
„Wie kann ich Fragen stellen, Themen vorschlagen bzw. Feedback geben?“
HINWEIS: Bis 15:30 Uhr…
…können Sie Ihre Themenwünsche,
Fragen und Feedback über die
Fragefunktion an uns senden.
Page 3
Regardless of whether a V-, a U-, or an L-shaped crisis is going to materialize,
the need for a continuous cash management approach will prevail
1 Solution at a glance
Crisis scenarios are real and impactful – however, there can be
positive learnings and takeaways in connected ways of working
Effective
Treatment
Containment
over time
Containment
within
Geography
Fast recovery and catch up - optimistic (V-shaped economic impact)
► Steep, but temporary dip in global economic development
► 2nd quarter rebound
► Summer will “heal” corona
► Effective treatment will be available quickly
The Year of Corona / Longer rebound(U-shaped economic impact)
► Uneven containment highlighted by supply and demand
disruptions
► Deep hit to global economy
► Treatment not effective immediately
► Recovery ensues towards end of 2020
Corona here to stay(L-shaped economic impact – pessimistic)
► Global recession, only long-term recovery, prolonged
lower global growth
► Longer-term reordering of supply chains
► Treatment only available long-term with humanitarian crisis
Scenario probability
55
%
10
%
35
%
Outcome depending on …
Page 4
The rate of liquidity contraction grows daily –
companies currently suffer from a 3-fold liquidity squeeze
1 Solution at a glance
Trading Performance
Supply chain disruption(volume, switching costs
and contractual penalties)
Cost containment(discretionary spend disappears)
Capital investment paralysis(confidence impact)
1
Revenue contraction
Cash Velocity
Stock Building(low supply confidence
necessitates investment in inventory)
Trading contagion(customers at risk of credit default,
suppliers at risk of failure)
Cash Forecast Uncertainty(cannot rely on historic cash flow trends)
2
Cash conservation(businesses preserve cash – liquidity constraints
pass across trading continuum)
Soft Credit Crunch
Credit facility risk(credit lines can be terminated within 9 months –
lost funding and price increases)
General credit environment(banks general desire to withdraw credit
impacting unused facilities)
Volume impacts credit(debt factoring facilities impacted by
trading volume – less receivables to factor)
3
Withdrawn trading support(credit insurance & guarantees withdrawn –
draws cash into collateral & supplier funding)
Page 5
There are four resilience actions that businesses are taking –
liquidity is clearly most threatening in the short term
1 Solution at a glance
Source: 5. EY Global Risk Survey 2020
• Initiate or expand flexible working
arrangements
• Provide infection protections for on-site
workers
• Issue regular, transparent communications
that reassure employees and align with
current government policies
• Consult legal teams for advice on potential
liabilitieswith governmentsor regulators.
• Evaluateshort-termliquidity.
• Assess financial and operational risks and
respond quickly.
• Consider alternativesupplychainoptions.
• Determine how the crisisaffects budgets and
businessplans.
• Monitor domestic and foreign government
initiativesof support.
01 04
02 03
Put people
safety first
Communicate with
stakeholders
Reshape strategy to
maintainbusiness continuity
Four actionsto build resilience and
reshape results
02 03Operate &
Communicate
• Scenario test adequacy of cash buffer
• Re-double efforts on cash forecasting
• Bring cash under central control and visibility
• Manage liquidity impact of disruption between finance
and operations
• Monitor customer credit limits tightly
• Tighten cash collection processes
• Maximise opportunities to reduce outflows
(e.g. permitted delays in tax payments)
Liquidity
Focus
79% Board members state
that their organizations are not
very well prepared to deal with
a crisis event 5.
Manage
Dynamically
• Establish regular cross-functional status
and decision meetings
• Confirm responsibilities and delegated
authorities under contingency
measures
• Agree trigger points for mitigating
actions
• Agree key measures for tracking
developments
• Keep trading mindset
• Keep customers apprised of impacts to
product or service delivery
• Stay in contact with suppliers regarding ability
to deliver goods and services
• Review terms and conditions on loans and
contracts with creditors and investors
• Consult legal teams for advice on potential
liabilities with governments or regulators
Four actionsto build resilience
Page 6
Businesses have the ability to manage risks and impacts –
the sooner action is taken the more effective these mitigations will be
1 Solution at a glance
Review capital
market options
Defer non-
essential spend
Suspend tax
payments
Explore payment
holidays
Time to realise
Liq
uid
ity p
ressure
/
cash r
equirem
ent
Lo
wH
igh
Maintain existing credit and build
cash buffer where possible
Manage committed credit
Immediate Longer term
Regulatory and government support
Review asset
disposal options
Raise new debt
(asset backed)
Defer deliveries /
renewals
Defer pension
payments
Partner solutions
e.g. lessors,
suppliers
Repatriate cash
balances
Stimulate
customer demand
Use headroom in
facilities
Rollover LC’s/
guarantees
Build and maintain
cash buffer
Cut share buyback
and dividends
A/c receivable
financing
Review hedging
arrangements
Tightened Disciplines
Potential Upsides
Protect measures
Pause investment
plans
2 to 30 days 2 to 3 months
Rapid cost-out
Offer part-time
work and/or
unpaid leave to
employees
Close offices/
Lines/factories
Extend alternate
sales and delivery
channels where
possible
Page 7
Short-term liquidity management is an integrated part of EY’s coordinated set
of crisis management initiatives, focusing on transparency, predictability, and emergency actions
Page 8
2 Our approach
Coordinated response to COVID crisis:
Ensure organized crisis response► Set-up crisis management team and identify key
stakeholders
► Define information flows & prioritize communications
► Connect with local authorities
► Uphold critical business processes
Rapidly gain transparency on the situation and
evaluate own exposure
Crisis management
Implement organizational set-up to help you
master the crisis going forward
► Identify available cash and due payments
► Keep track on demand indicators (travel bookings &
cancellations)
► Evaluate effect of material risks and possible
► Obtain and update a reliable cash flow forecast
► Prepare and enact immediate “stop-the-bleeding”
measures, e.g.
► Working capital measures
► Make use of flexible work arrangements
immediately
► Evaluate the effect of temporary interruption of
service
Short-term Liquidity Management
Rapidly gain transparency on the liquidity
situation and implement counteractions
Employee Health and Safety
► Identify employee concerns regarding risk of virus
infections in workplace / client interactions / travel
etc.
Communication
► Prepare crisis communication in cases of employee
infections (internal and publicly) and clarify and
communicate services restrictions and cancellation
policies
Duty of Care and Communication
Identify health and safety risks and start
preparing communication
During the first three days, the identification of
material risk areas and risk potential is key to
define necessary actions going forward
Rapidly identify material risk areas and assess
potential impact through e.g.
► Travel restrictions (e.g. travel bans or cross-border
travel restrictions)
► Service restriction (e.g. implementation of social
distancing measures)
► Political interventions (e.g. how to make us of
governmental support)
Conduct quick assessment of focus areas and
define concrete next steps
Identification of material risk areas
Based on our experience in cash-stressed situations,
we have extracted 12 key steps to rapidly stabilize cash flows within 2 weeks
Page 9
2 Our approach
Top 12 guiding principles – Day 1 agenda:
1. Obtain total control on Group cash – draw all available unutilized lines including subsidiaries‘ local banks
2. Create full transparency on Group-wide bank accounts incl. direct access to people who manage accounts and execute
payments – maximize # of bank accounts covered in TMS
3. Detailed view on which amounts are restricted (blocked, trapped, JVs, etc.) and, vice versa, which amounts are freely
disposable on Group level
4. Direct rolling 13 week cash flow forecasting covering major entities (80/20 approach required as it won’t be feasible to set
up a full-scale 13W CFF covering 100+ legal entities)
5. Weekly cash desk to approve & execute key collections & payments based on standardized cash reporting covering major
entities (80/20 rule)
6. Group-wide communication regarding payment approval & execution process and reporting requirements to Group level
7. Early payment incentives to key customers (again, 80/20 rule)
8. Weekly evaluation of due payments and payment decision based on (1) strategic importance of supplier and (2) ability to
negotiate better terms later – discontinue rental and social insurance payments
9. Capex freeze – key challenge here (as with 2.) to enforce this initiative throughout the Group
10. Sell off finished goods stock wherever possible (even at prices below costs) – depending on BU
11. Repatriate local decentralized cash amounts on a weekly basis (cash calls) – intercompany financing is being executed
upon valid local cash forecast only
12. Create standardized lenders cash reporting to support (or save, for that matter) the refinancing process
By o
rde
ro
fp
riority
Cash Management Quick Scan: indicative timeline –
key success factors are 100% cash focus, 80/20 rule, senior judgement
Page 10
2 Our approach
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3-6 Mid-term actions
Liquidity
Management
Working
Capital
External
Financing
(1) Daily liquidity status - (2) weekly cash calls - (3) stakeholder-specific cash reporting (internal/external)
Process
Set-upWeekly pragmatic (!) cash forecast (80/20 rule applies) – scenario analysis per material entity
„Cash Culture“ – direct accountability and clear communication
• Retain full control on Group cash –
pragmatic forecasting
• Determine non-pooled (blocked or
trapped) cash balances
• Discontinue rental and social
contribution payments
• Evaluate master data (ledgers) on
overdues AR and FG stock
• Centralize data mining & analysis
• Reduce cash outflows
• Negotiate extension of payments
• Draw any available line
• Secure local non-pooled bank lines
(draw & upstream)
• Apply for reduced working hours
benefit
• Centralize liquidity managemt
• Release restricted cash from
collaterals and JVs
• Repatriate local cash from subs
• Capex and Opex freeze
• Collect overdues AR
• Sell of FG stock (even below costs)
• Negotiate consignment stock
(suppliers and/or customers)
• Shift suppliers and stock from
stationary to online
• Start negotiations on extensions
• Obtain credit insurers‘ view
• Roll over LCs
• Prepare government aid data pack
(„KfW Darlehen“ & „Schutzschild)
• Manually upstream local cash
balances
• „IC funding based on valid cash
flow forecast only“!
• Prepare for „reeboot“
• Offer early payment discounts to
customers
• Negotiate payment terms
• Secure commercial banks‘ support
for government aid application
(credit com decision required)
• Get bondholders‘ buy-in
• Negotiate bridge financing until
government aid is available
• Improve forecasting accuracy
(plan-actual variances)
• Re-set IC funding process
• Treasury Risk Management &
Compliance
• Order-to-cash process
• Supply chain process alignment
• Transactional data mining
• Prepare post-crisis ramp-up
(seasonal inventory)
• Evaluate asset-based lending
opportunities (SLB, factoring)
Based a consistent short-term liquidity plan, indicative scenarios need to be assessed –
along different levels of distress and alternative financing solutions
Page 11
2 Our approach
Initial
assessment of
the company‘s
situation
Valid underlying
business model
– considerable
cash risks from
current situation
Quick Scan
indicates
substantial cash
upsides
Quick Scan
yields
insufficient cash
upsides
Out-of-court
restructuring
Insolvency
Self
admininstration
(Eigenverwaltung)
Regular
proceedings
(Regelinsolvenz)
Valid underlying
business model
– well prepared -
no immediate
insolvency risk
Business model
was struggling
before –
amplyfied cash
risks due to
current situation
currentsituation 3 main outcomes
Government support
Refinancing support
Restructuring support
• Restructuring plan
• Headcount reduction
• Liquidty plan
• Project management
• (…)
Internal financing
requirements
External financing
requirements
alternative actions
Quick Scan
confirms
comfortable
cash situation
• Deferred tax payments,
• Short-term work (Kurzarbeit)
• Short-term liquidity assistance
• Protective Shield (Schutzschirm)
• KfW Loan
Treasury support
Refinancing support
• Financing strategy and lenders communication
• Secure existing financing
• Evaluate new financing facilities
Back to normal
An idealtypic short-term cash management process integrates all existing tools
like STCFF, Cash Desk, Working Capital, PMO, etc.
Page 12
2 Our approach
13 Week Entity-basedRolling
Cash Flow Forecast Weekly CentralizedCash Desk
(…)
Working Capital„Speed Boat“ Approach
„Capital Edge“ Proprietary PMO Tool
(…)
Gesamtfinanzie-rungsstrategie
Um die Liquidität zu sichern muss eine tragfähige Finanzierungsstrategie entwickelt und mit der
Bestandsfinanzierung in Einklang gebracht werden
Zeit bis zur Umsetzung
Liq
uid
itä
tsb
ed
arf
Nie
dri
gH
och
Bestehende Kredite aufrecht erhalten und Liquiditätspuffer anlegen
Management zugesagter Finanzierung
Sofort Langfristig
Staatliche Unterstützung/Hilfsprogramme
Neue (Bank-) Verschuldung
(Sicherheiten)
Liquidität im Konzern zusammenziehen
Bestehende Linien nutzen
Liquiditätsforecasterstellen
2 bis 30 Tage 2 bis 3 Monate
COVID19 - Stresstest für die LiquiditätPage 13
Kurz-/mittelfristige Liquiditätsrisiken
ermitteln
Finanzierungs-strategie entwickeln
► Bestehende Liquiditätspuffer prüfen
► Lieferantenkredite prüfen
► Mögliche zusätzliche Kreditsicherheiten identifizieren (pari passu zu berücksichtigen)
Bestehende Finanzierungen
sichern
► Plananpassungen/Covenantvorschau erstellen
► Hausbanken/Mandated Lead Arranger über Auswirkungen informieren
► Anpassungen von Covenants und Auflagen (insbesondere Beschränkung von Finanzverbindlichkeiten) ggf. Zinsanpassung, Tilgungsaussetzung
Neue Finanzierungs-quellen erschließen
► KfW-Liquiditätsprogramme
► Bank-eigene „Corona“-Programme
► ABS/Factoring
► Sale & Lease Back
24. März 2020
Sonderprogramm Corona | KfW-Corona-Hilfen I/III
In Deutschland werden Liquiditätshilfen insbesondere über die Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
(KfW) abgewickelt. Eine Beantragung der KfW-Corona-Hilfen erfolgt über die Hausbank des
Antragstellers bzw. alternativ über Finanzierungspartner der KfW.
Überblick
Beantragung der KfW-Corona-Hilfen ab 23. März 2020 möglich
ERP-Gründerkredit
(universell)
(074/076)
KfW-
Unternehmerkredit
(047)
Alter:
max. fünf Jahre
Alter:
mind. fünf Jahre
Alter:
max. fünf Jahre
Alter:
mind. fünf Jahre
kleine und mittlere
Unternehmengroße Unternehmen
ERP-Gründerkredit
(universell)
(073/075)
KfW-
Unternehmerkredit
(037)
Sonderprogramm Corona | KfW-Corona-Hilfen I/II
Förder-
möglichkeitBeschreibung Antragsberechtigte
KfW-Unter-
nehmerkredit
(KfW-Sonder-
programm
2020)
► Darlehen von bis zu EUR 1,0 Mrd. (je Unternehmensgruppe) für Investitionen
und Betriebsmittel
► Unternehmen/Frei-
berufler mit Sitz in
Deutschland und die
seit mindestens fünf
Jahren am Markt aktiv
sind
ERP-
Gründer-
kredit
(universell)
► Darlehen von bis zu EUR 1,0 Mrd. (je Unternehmensgruppe) für Investitionen
und Betriebsmittel
► junge mittelständische
Unternehmen, die noch
keine fünf Jahre am
Markt tätig sind
► Existenzgründer
► Freiberufler
Bestimmungen► Begrenzung des Kredithöchstbetrags
► 25 % des Jahresumsatzes 2019 oder
► Doppelte der Lohnkosten 2019 oder
► aktueller Finanzierungsbedarf für die nächsten
► 18 Monate bei kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen
► 12 Monate bei großen Unternehmen oder
► 50 % der Gesamtverschuldung des Antrag stellenden Unternehmens bei Krediten über EUR 25,0 Mio.
► Risikoübernahmen (Haftungsfreistellungen) in Höhe von bis zu
► 90 % für Kredite an kleine und mittlere Unternehmen
► 80 % für Kredite an große Unternehmen
Seite 6 24. März 2020
Sonderprogramm Corona | KfW-Corona-Hilfen II/II
Förder-
möglichkeitBeschreibung Antragsberechtigte
KfW-
Sonderpro-
gramm
- Konsortial-
finanzierung
► Beteilung an Konsortialfinanzierungen für Investitionen und Betriebsmittel
► Risikoübernahmen (Haftungsfreistellungen) in Höhe von bis zu 80 %
► max. 50% der Risiken der Gesamtverschuldung
► KfW-Risikoanteil in Höhe von mind. EUR 25,0 Mio.
► Begrenzung auf
► 25 % des Jahresumsatzes 2019 oder
► Doppelte der Lohnkosten 2019 oder
► aktuellen Finanzierungsbedarf für die nächsten 12 Monate
► optional Refinanzierung aller am Konsortium teilnehmenden Banken durch
KfW
► mittelständische und
große Unternehmen
Seite 7 24. März 2020
Ihre Fragen und Gesprächsbedarfe zu COVID-19 Maßnahmen
können Sie jederzeit im Nachgang zum Webcast an unsere EY-
Experten richten:
► Entweder nutzen Sie die Kontaktdaten Ihrer Gastgeber für
einen direkten Kontakt
oder
► Sie nutzen unsere E-Mail Hotline:
Dort gehen alle Anfragen zentral ein und werden schnellst
möglichst an die entsprechenden Experten weitergeleitet.
Ihre EY-Experten sind nach dem Webcast jederzeit für Sie erreichbar
www.ey.com/de
https://www.ey.com/de_de/covid-19
Seite 17
Vielen Dank für Ihre Teilnahme und Zeit!
Den Link zur Webcast Aufzeichnung senden wir Ihnen zeitnah zu.